PROBABILITY AND

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Lesson 2
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COUNTING RULES
● Counting rules are used to find the total number of outcomes for
experiments with large number of outcomes.

Ø Principles of Counting
a) Multiplicative Rule
─ If there are 𝑚 ways of doing one thing and 𝑛 ways of doing another,
there are 𝑚𝑥𝑛 ways of doing both.
→ Total number of arrangements = (𝑚)(𝑛)
Examples:
1. A girl has two blouses, one white and the other is pink; two skirts, one
blue and the other is red. How many different ways can she dress
using those articles? Ans: 4 ways
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COUNTING RULES
Examples:
2. How many two-digit number of different digits can be formed
from the numbers 1, 2, 3, and 4? For three-digit number of
different digits? Ans: 12 two-digit numbers; 24 three-digit numbers
3. How many lunches consisting of a soup, sandwich, dessert,
and a drink are possible if we can select from 4 soups, 3
kinds of sandwiches, 5 desserts, and 4 drinks?
Ans: 240 lunches
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COUNTING RULES
b) Permutation Rule (ab ≠ ba)
─ If we have 𝑛 objects and arrange 𝑟 of them (where 𝑟 ≤ 𝑛)
in a definite order, such arrangement is called a
permutation of 𝑛 objects taken 𝑟 at a time.
𝑛!
𝑛𝑃𝑟 = 𝑃 𝑛, 𝑟 =
𝑛−𝑟 !
where: 𝑃 = number of permutations or ways the objects can be
arranged
𝑛 = total number of objects
𝑟 = number of objects to be used at a time
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COUNTING RULES
● Factorials – the product of all integers from 𝑛 → 1, i.e,
𝑛! = 𝑛 𝑛 − 1 𝑛 − 2 … 3 2 1
Evaluate the following:
1. 0!, 1!, 2!, 3!, 4!, 5! Ans: 1, 1, 2, 6, 24, 120
2. (12 − 8)! Ans: 24
!!
3. #! $!
Ans: 28
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COUNTING RULES
Examples for Permutation Rule:
1. Ms. Santos has 10 books to be arranged in a shelf with room
for only 5 books. How many arrangements can she make on
the shelf? Ans: 30,240 arrangements
2. In how many ways can 4 people be seated in a room which
has 6 chairs? Ans: 360 ways
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COUNTING RULES
─ If you are arranging 𝑛 things of which 𝑛! , 𝑛" , … , 𝑛# are alike in
the k groups, the number of different results is
𝑛!
𝑃 𝑛! , 𝑛" , … , 𝑛# =
𝑛! ! 𝑛" ! … 𝑛# !
Examples:
1. How many permutations can be made of the word
“STATISTICS”? Ans: 50,400 permutations
2. How many different signals can be made by arranging 10
flags of which are 3 red, 3 blue, 2 white, and 2 green
signals? Ans: 25,200 signals
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COUNTING RULES
c) Combination Rule (ab = ba)
─ If you are drawing 𝑟 objects from a set of 𝑛 objects without
regard to order, the number of different results is
𝑛!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 = 𝐶 𝑛, 𝑟 =
𝑟! 𝑛 − 𝑟 !
Examples:
1. Consider a student who is to select 2 questions from 4. Find the
number of ways this student can select 2 questions from 4. Ans: 6 ways
2. Three members of the jury will be randomly selected from 5
persons. How many different combinations are possible?
Ans: 10 combinations
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PROBABILITY
● Probability – a chance that a particular outcome will occur in
an experiment.
– a number between 0 and 1, including 0 and 1.
● Simple event/sample points – basic possible outcomes of an
experiment
● Sample space – entire collection of all possible outcomes
– Symbol: Ω/S – universal set/sample space
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PROBABILITY
Example 1. Experiment: Observe the up face on a fair coin
Sample space: 1. Observe a Head (H)
2. Observe a Tail (T)
Set notation: S = {H,T}
Simple events H T Total
Probability 0.5 0.5 1
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PROBABILITY
● Compound events – collection of simple events; consisting of 2 or
more simple events

Ø Two Ways to Form Compound Events

1. Union of events 2. Intersection of events
─ combined events ─ common events
─ uses the symbol U ─ uses the inverted U as symbol
─ or (∩)
─ ex: A or B → AUB ─ and
─ ex: A and B → A∩B or AB
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PROBABILITY
Example 2. Experiment: Consider the die toss. Let A be the
event of tossing an even number and B be the event of tossing a
number less than or equal to 3.
Set notation: S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}; A = {2,4,6}; B = {1,2,3}
Find the following:
1. AUB = {1,2,3,4,6}
2. A∩B = {2}
3. If C = odd numbers, what is A∩C? A∩C = { } or Ø
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USEFUL CONCEPTS IN THE CALCULATION OF

EVENT PROBABILITIES
1. Equally likely outcomes
─ when the sample space (S) consists of equally likely
outcomes, the probability of any event A in S is:
$(&)
𝑃 𝐴 = or 𝑃 𝐴 = sum of the probabilities
$(()
of the simple events in 𝐴
Using example 2: S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}; A = {2,4,6}; B = {1,2,3}
Find P(A), P(B), P(AUB), and P(A∩B).
!(#) & ( 𝑛(𝐵) 3 1 𝑛 AUB 5 𝑛(A∩B) 1
Ans: 𝑃 𝐴 = = = 𝑃 𝐵 = = = 𝑃 AUB = = 𝑃 A∩B = =
!(%) ' ) 𝑛(𝑆) 6 2 𝑛(𝑆) 6 𝑛(𝑆) 6
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USEFUL CONCEPTS IN THE CALCULATION OF

EVENT PROBABILITIES
2. Notion of complementary events
─ The sum of the probabilities of complementary events is 1.
𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐴′ = 1

Using example 2: What is the complement of A? 𝐴′ = {1,3,5}

Find the probability of the complement of A.
Solution:
! !
𝑃 𝐴′ = 1 − 𝑃 𝐴 = 1 − =
" "
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USEFUL CONCEPTS IN THE CALCULATION OF

EVENT PROBABILITIES
3. Conditional probability
─ Having additional knowledge that might affect the outcome of an
event.
─ 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 → the probability that event A occurs given that event
B is sure to occur.
𝑃(𝐴𝐵)
𝑃 𝐴𝐵 =
𝑃(𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴𝐵)
𝑃 𝐵𝐴 =
𝑃(𝐴)

Using example 2: Find 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 and 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 .

! !
Ans: 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 = ) and 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 = )
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USEFUL CONCEPTS IN THE CALCULATION OF

EVENT PROBABILITIES
Example 3. The following table contains the summary of the
number of possible outcomes in each event in an experiment.
C D E Total
A 20 30 25 75
B 40 36 20 96
Total 60 66 45 171
25 10
Find: 1. P(A) 57
= 4. P(AD) = 57
32 5
2. P(B) = 57 5. P(A|E) = 9
3. P(A’) = 32
57
6. P(E|A) = 13
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USEFUL CONCEPTS IN THE CALCULATION OF

EVENT PROBABILITIES
4. Additive rule of probability
─ Determines the probability of the union of events
𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃(𝐴𝐵)

Using example 2: Find 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 .

→ Mutually exclusive/ dependent events are disjoint events, i.e.,

there is no simple events in common
→ 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = {} or Ø , then, 𝑃 𝐴⋂𝐵 = 0
Thus, 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵
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USEFUL CONCEPTS IN THE CALCULATION OF

EVENT PROBABILITIES
5. Multiplicative rule of probability
─ Determines the probability of the intersection of events
𝑃 𝐴⋂𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝐵 ∗ 𝑃(𝐵)
𝑃 𝐴⋂𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 ∗ 𝑃(𝐴)

Example 4: An agriculturist who is interested in planting rice next year is

concerned with the following events:
A – production of rice will be profitable
B – a serious drought will occur
Based on the available information, the agriculturist believes that the
probability is 0.01 that the production of rice will be profitable assuming a
serious drought will occur. The probability is 0.05 that a serious drought will
occur. What is the probability that a serious drought will occur and that profit
will be made? Ans: 𝑃 𝐴⋂𝐵 = 0.0005
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USEFUL CONCEPTS IN THE CALCULATION OF

EVENT PROBABILITIES
→ Independent events are events in which the occurrence of
event B does not alter the probability that event A will occur.
→ Two events are independent if,
𝑃 𝐴𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴
𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 = 𝑃(𝐵)
Thus, 𝑃 𝐴⋂𝐵 = 𝑃(𝐴) ∗ 𝑃(𝐵)
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RANDOM VARIABLES

Ø Random variable
● It is a rule that assign one (and only one) numerical value to
each simple event of an experiment
● It is a variable whose value is determined by the outcome of a
random experiment
● It is a quantity resulting from an experiment, that by chance
can assume different values
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RANDOM VARIABLES
Ø Two Types of Random Variables
1) Discrete random variable
● Assumes a finite or countable number of values
● In other words, the consecutive values of a discrete random variable is separated by a certain
gap.
Example:
1. The number of pairs of shoes a person owns
2. The number of heads obtained in 3 tosses of a coin
3. The number of kernels in a corn
2) Continuous random variable
● A random variable whose values are not countable.
● Assumes values corresponding to any of the points contained in one or more intervals on a line
Example: The BMI range for a normal or healthy weight is from 18.5 𝑘𝑔/𝑚) to 22.9 𝑘𝑔/𝑚) .
𝐵𝑀𝐼*+,-./ = 𝑥 18.5 ≤ 𝑥 ≤ 22.9
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PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
● It is a listing of all outcomes of an experiment and the probability
associated with each outcome
Ø Discrete Probability distribution
● The probability distribution of a discrete random variable is a table,
graph, or formula that specifies a probability associated with each
possible value the random variable can assume.
Example: An experiment of tossing 2 coins.
𝑆 = 𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇
Let 𝑥 = number of heads that will appear in tossing the coins
𝑥 = 0,1,2
Simple events 𝐻𝐻 𝐻𝑇 𝑇𝐻 𝑇𝑇
𝑥 2 1 1 0
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PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Ø Table Ø Formula
𝑥 0 1 2 1⁄4 , 𝑥 = 0, 2
𝑃(𝑥) 1/4 1/2 1/4 𝑃 𝑥 = ; 1⁄2 , 𝑥=1
0, 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
Ø Graph
𝑃(𝑥)

1/2

1/4

𝑥
0 1 2
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PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Ø Continuous Probability Distribution

𝑷(𝒂 < 𝒙 < 𝒃)

Fig. 5.1 A probability distribution of 𝑓(𝑥) for a continuous random variable 𝑥.

𝑓(𝑥)= probability density function/ frequency distribution/ probability distribution

● The area under a probability distribution correspond to probabilities for 𝑥.

● Total area has a probability equal to 1.
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PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Ø The Normal Distribution
● It has a bell-shaped probability distribution.
● It is perfectly symmetric about its mean (𝜇) and its spread is determined by the
value of its standard deviation (𝜎)
● The formula for the normal probability distribution function is,
1 . 0-1 0
-
𝑓 𝑥 = 𝑒 / 2 , −∞ < 𝑥 < ∞
𝜎 2𝜋
where: 𝜇 = mean of the normal random variable 𝑥
𝜎 = standard deviation
𝜋 = 3.1415 …
𝑒 = 2.71828 …
𝑓 𝑥 = height of the curve for any value of 𝑥 in the distribution
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PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
● In any normal curve, over 2/3 of the measurements lie in the
interval 𝜇 ± 𝜎, 95% are in the interval 𝜇 ± 2𝜎, and only 0.26% lie
beyond 𝜇 ± 3𝜎, Thus:
For any normal random variable
𝑃 𝜇 − 𝜎 < 𝑥 < 𝜇 + 𝜎 = 0.67
𝑃 𝜇 − 2𝜎 < 𝑥 < 𝜇 + 2𝜎 = 0.95
𝑃 𝜇 − 3𝜎 < 𝑥 < 𝜇 + 3𝜎 = 0.9974
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PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Ø Aids in determining probabilities for normal random variables
1. Sketch a normal curve and label the mean then shade the area that corresponds to the
probability of interest.
2. Convert the 𝑥 values to z-scores using the formula:
For samples,
𝑥 − 𝑥̅
𝑧=
𝑠
For populations,
𝑥−𝜇
𝑧=
𝜎

z-scores – gives the number of standard deviations the original value is from the mean
– the distribution of z-scores, known as a standard normal distribution, always has a
mean equal to zero and a standard deviation equal to one,
𝑁𝐷: 𝑥~𝑁(𝜇, 𝜎 ) )
𝑆𝑁𝐷: 𝑧~𝑁(0,1)
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PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
● The probability distribution of 𝑧 is given by the formula:
1 ./ !
𝑓 𝑧 = 𝑒 , −∞ < 𝑧 < ∞
2𝜋
● The standard normal curve also has total area equal to 1.
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PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Ø Useful Relationships
1. 𝑃 𝑧 > 𝑎 = 1 − 𝑃 𝑧 < 𝑎 , 𝑎 > 0
2. 𝑃 𝑎 < 𝑧 < 𝑏 = 𝑃(𝑧 < 𝑏) − 𝑃 𝑧 < 𝑎
3. 𝑃 −𝑎 < 𝑧 < 𝑎 = 2𝑃 𝑧 < 𝑎 − 1
4. 𝑃 𝑧 < −𝑎 = 𝑃 𝑧 > 𝑎
5. 𝑃 𝑧 > −𝑎 = 𝑃 𝑧 < 𝑎
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PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Ø Example:
1. Given the normally distributed variable 𝑥 with mean 18 and
variance 25, find:
a. 𝑃 𝑥 < 15
b. 𝑃 17 < 𝑥 < 21
c. the value of 𝑥 such that 𝑃 𝑧 < 𝑧0 = 0.6217.
d. The value of 𝑥 such that 𝑃 𝑧 > 𝑧0 = 0.1814.