Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Trading Tips From Hsaka
Trading Tips From Hsaka
By @HsakaTrades
i) Premise
The primary reason price of any asset moves is because of an imbalance between supply
(sellers) and demand (buyers). The larger the imbalance, the stronger the move.
ii) Types
There are several types of supply/demand zones, but broadly speaking they fall into two
categories: • Reversal: Price rallies (falls), consolidates, and reverses to fall (rally). •
Continuation: Price rallies (falls), consolidates, and continues to rally (fall).
iii) Identification
As noted above, supply/demand zones always from during the consolidation (the base) b/w
rallies and drops.
Method 1 (Clusters):
• Demand: Use the low of the base and the highest candle body.
• Supply: Use the high of the base and lowest candle body.
a) Force of breakout:
The more explosive the breakout from the base, both in terms of speed and distance of
ensuing rally/drop, the stronger the buying/selling power at the base, ergo, the stronger the
zone. Re: A clean move away, no wicks.
b) Freshness:
The best reactions to a supply/demand zone will always be on the first return to the zone.
With every subsequent retest of a zone, the supply/demand at said zone depletes,
ultimately leading to a break of the zone. Some examples.
Contrary to popular belief, with every subsequent test of a supply/demand zone, the said
zone loses its strength. Soon, most of the orders in the zone will be consumed causing it to
cave and give way to price.
c) Length and width of the base:
The less time spent forming the base, the stronger a zone is, since that connotes the
buy/sell strength out there is greater than its counterpart.
A narrower base is stronger. Too many wicks above/below the base depletes supply &
demand.
d) Miscellaneous:
• Reversal zones > Continuation zones
• The best zones form around key high time frame support or resistance levels
• An exception to the supply/demand depletion factor is if there's an extremely
important price from a fundamental/psychological perspective.
v) Trading
Aggressive:
Bid/offer the upper/lower limit of the zone with a tight stop loss below/above the zone.
Conservative:
Scatter your bids throughout the zone at various intervals and place the stop loss at idea
invalidation. Note: Zone retest can be traded upon a break.
2. Support and Resistance
Exhibit B
$NEO
$NEO Update No need to complicate your trading. Identify key levels, and plan your entry,
exit, stop. Pull the trigger on the orders. Go lead your life normally.
3. Swing Failure Pattern
Seeing a lot of traders use/abuse this pattern lately, thought I'll put up a small primer.
Index:
i) Premise
ii) Identification
iii) Trading (Entry/Stop)
iv) Miscellaneous
i) Premise
The SFP is hinged on the basic idea that large players need equivalently large liquidity to fill
their orders and avoid slippage by buying at the current market prices. Once they fill their
orders, price usually reverts back. How do they achieve this?
ii) Identification
Look for key swing points (/\ or \/) on a chart, swing high/lows that stand out instantly.
When price breaks these points, two things will happen:
a) Stops will get triggered
b) Breakout traders will be baited
This will create the large liquidity required.
iii) Trading (Entry/Stop) Entry:
On the close of the SFP candle (the candle that breaks the swing high/low and closes
below/above)
Stop: Discretionary stop above/below the SFP candles high/low.
Manually exit if price closes above/below SFP high/low.
TFs: Any (I use the 4h/1D)
iv) Miscellaneous
• Mostly applicable on BTC and large caps.
• This can also be used to identify range fakeouts.
• Check all exchanges to check if the SFP is consistent.
• Lastly: A wick below/above a low from 3 bars prior and a close above/below is NOT
an SFP.
Exhibit A Well, this was timely. $BTC
Update. Although this worked out this time, it wasn't the ideal SFP due to the entry (candle
close) being so far away from the swing point that was SFP'd This would be a 0.5R trade,
which warrants a pretty high strike rate. For best SFP trades, look for small wicks.
4. Trading Ranges
When scalping ranges, watch for fakeouts/SFPs/stop runs (Swing Failure Patter - Section 3)
to make high probability trades. Whenever price fakes out of one side of a range, it tends to
travel to other side. The recent $BTC range has served as a stellar example of this.
Another method, albeit a riskier one, is to divide the range into quarters (use the fib tool for
this), and then bid the lower quarter and sell the upper quarter. This is riskier method since
now you're preempting the way price responds instead of waiting for confirmation
5. Divergences
Used to determine possible trend reversals (regular) or continuation (hidden).
Bullish: Check lows
Bearish: Check highs
Line chart Match points vertically on price and indicator.
Connect successive tops or bottoms (swing points)
Regular > hidden.
Exhibit A Regular Bullish Div on $BTC.
Break of an Uptrend:
Lower low -> Lower high -> Lower low
Downtrend:
Lower lows & Lower Highs.
Break of a Downtrend:
Higher high -> Higher low -> Higher high
$BTC 1D (08/05/18) Looking better than yesterday. • Found support in the zone outlined.
Clean break of this zone and I think this tests 6400. • Tweezer bottoms. • Some short term
relief looks to be in order if it can hold this zone.
$BTC 1D (08/06/18) • Bounced off the equilibrium of the zone marked out. • If a bounce
from here has enough momentum to break prior support (7300), a case for 7.8k could be
made. Otherwise, most likely price makes lower lows. • On a clean break of this zone, we
see 6600s
$BTC 1D (08/07/18) Yikes, this is an ugly close. • Completely obliterated the potential
bounce zone, establishing it as strong resistance now. • Last hope for any revival is the level
at 6350. A clean close through that, and most likely BTC seeks new yearly lows.
$NEO One box rejeccs, the other proteccs.
$XRP Update Hit the first target. Holding 40% of spot buys. Closed Mex position completely.
$ETH False break + SFP (clearer on the 4h).
$ETH Watching this for now. Will include a top-down ETHUSD analysis with tonight's
BTCUSD one.
Update This is consolidating longer than expected. Longer the consolidation, larger the
liquidity builds above/below the range. Larger the liquidity, more violent the range
breakout. We'll see some shenanigans nearer into the weekly close.
$BTC Top-down analysis (06/14/18) 1W Level protecc for now. Ideally close a doji/hammer
above 6400 to set the foundation for a transient relief rally. A close below, and I think 6k
won't hold for long, and we'll tap the demand zone equilibrium. Could wick below to
liquidity land.
$ETH Box attacc. Bearish if close below the grey box.
9. Explanation of Order Blocks and Breakers
A textbook example of a bullish breaker. Shoutout to @Tradermayne for showing me this
voodoo stuff.
$BTC Scalp A breaker that could have been played (I'm flat right now). Used the OB
equilibrium (midpoint) as the entry.
Another potential breaker (Support/Resistance flip) spotted. Throwing it out there to see if
it does it's job (I don't think it will). If it doesn't, no biggie, nothing in TA has a 100% strike
rate.
10. Tradingview Order Block Tip
Had a lightbulb moment on a much more time efficient way to draw zones with their
midpoints using one tool (fib retracement). No need to first use the rectangle tool to chart
the OB, and then the ray for the equilibrium. Here's the template. (This may have been
obvious to some.)
Hsaka @HsakaTrades
26 Nov 18 • 12 tweets • HsakaTrades/status/1067129055076601857
Leverage this volatility while it lasts, this is one of many other frequently occurring
structures.
Exhibit B
Exhibit C (3rd Setup)
Exhibit D
Exhibit E
Same pair as the previous. First appeared on the 15m, then on the 1h.
Price is fractal.
Double Exhibit (First Setup)
Works especially well if the third leg is into a fresh supply or demand zone.
Exhibit H
Exhibit I
Exhibit K
@crymeaCOIN brought this to my attention. Give him a follow for spicy BTC and alt
charts with consistent updates.
Exhibit L
We've been seeing this structure play out quite a lot lately.
Exhibits A, B & C.
(Before you get your hindsight pitchforks out, these are all instances I previously
tweeted about).
$BTC almost there
Exhibit D 🎯
Shoutout to the based bear who's been walking price down with his 10m ask.
$BTC
As the cool kids would say, you're welcome for the free "alpha"
Why not
Exhibit F ✅
1 pattern, 6 trades, 6 wins.
God bless $BTC and its tendency to continuously repeat an exploitable pattern every
few months.
Fool me once...
$BTC Thanks for playing.
$BTC
Exhibit
$BTC
$BTC Exhibit I
This was probably the cleanest one till now, lot of confluence.
• OI dip on impulse
• Asks moving down with price
• Ran yesterdays high (7421)
• Closed below weekly open (7400)
• Consecutive S/R flips without any reclaim
$BTC
Exhibit "This pattern actually stopped appearing a while ago but every now and then
the 1m chart makes you reminisce about the bygone era"
•••
Hsaka @HsakaTrades
22 Nov 18 • 2 tweets • HsakaTrades/status/1065699894227333121
• TFs: 4h - 15m
Exhibit A
•••