Water Resources Management 5: 199-208, 1991.

199
0 1991 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands.

REGIONALISATION OF PHYSICALLY-BASED WATER BALANCE MODELS IN BELGIUM.

APPLICATION TO UNGAUGED CATCBIIENTS

G.L. Vandewiele. Chong-Yu Xu

Laboratory of Hydrology, Vrije Universiteit Brussel
Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium
W. Huybrechts
Institute of Nature Conservation
Kiewitdreef 3, 3500 Hasselt, Belgium

ABSTRACT. More than 60 catchments from Northern Belgium ranging in size

from 16 to 3160 km2 have been studied by means of a physically-based
stochastic water balance model. The parameter values derived from cali-
bration of the model were regionally mapped for the study region.
Associations between model parameters and basin lithological characte-
ristics were established and tested. The results show that the simple
conceptual monthly water balance model with three parameters for actual
evapotranspiration, slow and fast runoff is capable either to generate
monthly streamflow at ungauged sites or to extend river flow at gauged
sites. This allows a fairly accurate estimation of monthly discharges at
any location within the region.

Key words. Water balance model, ungauged catchments, Belgium.

1. INTRODUCTION

One of the main objectives in the development of a conceptual model

of the rainfall-runoff process is to provide a model that can be used in
ungauged catchments to generate a record of runoff for planning and
design purposes. Various kinds of rainfall-runoff models have been
developed since the early 1930’s. However, the need of prior calibration
by using an available streamflow record of sufficient length makes it
difficult to apply existing models to ungauged catchments. It is there-
fore appropriate to emphasize the study of correlating model parameters
to measurable physical catchment characteristics.
The research reported in this paper aims:
(11 to develop a model that simulates monthly hydrographs of river
flow on the basis of minimum available meteorological data and para-
meters that can readily be derived from catchment maps.
(2) to establish quantitative relationships between model para-
meters and the most meaningful physical basin characteristics.
(3) to present the regional distribution of model parameters and
water balance terms simulated by the model for the Flemish region of
Belgium.

2. STATE OF THE ART ON RELATING LUMPED SYSTEMMODEL PARAMETERSAND BASIN

CHARACTERISTICS

Regionalisation has been for many years a standard hydrologic tool,

used to facilitate extrapolation from sites at which records have been
200 G. L. VANDEWIELE ET AL.

collected to others at which data are required but unavailable (Riggs,

1973). Considerable effort has been invested in representative and
experimental basins to predict hydrologic variables and parameters of
complex distributed models in terms of catchment characteristics (e.g.
Aston and Dunin, 1979). However this is not the case for lumped para-
meter models. Owing to the simplifications, the physical significance of
model parameters and relations is reduced by the effects of spatial and
time variations. Moreover, variations of rainfall in time and space,
which cannot usually be modelled, also affect the values of derived
parameters. From these points of view, it is not surprising that little
success has been reported in relating lumped model parameters and catch-
ment characteristics. Few exceptions are reported by Jarboe and Haan
(1974) who used multiple linear regression methods to relate each of the
four parameters of Haan’s model and measurable watershed characte-
ristics; Magette et al. (19761 used Jones’ (19761 procedure to fit a
subset of six parameters of the Kentucky watershed model, and were ab Nle
to obtain acceptable multiple regression equations using indices of
fifteen watershed characteristics: Weeks and Ashkanasy (19831 related
parameter values of the Sacramento model to six’catchment characte-
ristics, the resultant regional parameters were found to be
satisfactory.
Although only few hydrologists would confidently compute the dis-
charge hydrograph from rainfall data and the physical description of the
catchment, this is a practical problem which must often be faced by
practicing engineers. (Nash and Sutcliffe, 19701.

3. A SIMPLE LUMPED SYSTEMWATERBALANCEMODEL ON A MONTHLYSCALE

The natural hydrologic phenomena are very complex, but it often is

possible to simplify the rainfall runoff process description and still
obtain satisfactory model performance. “It appears that three to five
parameters should be sufficient to reproduce most of the information in
a hydrological record.” (Beven, 19891.
The model presented here, which has been tested in more than 60
Belgian catchments and a number of Chinese catchments, was found to be
able to explain with a few parameters the natural phenomena and to
correlate these parameters with the physical characteristics of the
basin. It is a single reservoir model (see Fig.11.
rrecipitationlp,)
'1 Phpotranspiration

Infiltration

Fig.1. The model concept

WATER BALANCE MODELS IN BBLGIUM 201

Input series for the model are free water evaporation (e,) and
area1 precipitation (p+I. The precipitation reaching the ground is
divided into three parts: evapotranspiration, fast runoff and infiltra-
tion. The infiltrated water is kept in the underground reservoir the
output from which is the slow runoff andpart of evapotranspiration.
Table 1 shows the model equations.

Table 1. The model equations

-------^-------------------------------------------
rr = min((p,+m’,-,)(l-e’-‘,‘,‘),e+) (1)
St = azm*+-l (2)
ft = a,m’,-,(p,-e,(I-e-P,/‘,)f (3)
d, = s++f+ (4)
m+ = mrml+p+-rr -de (5)
_-__----------------_______________^____-----------

where
P+ = precipitation in month t, in mm
e t = free water evaporation in month t, in mm
rt = actual evapotranspiration in month t. in mm
St = slow runoff in month t, in mm
f, = fast runoff in month t, in mm
d, = total runoff in month t. in mm
m, = soil moisture content at the end of month t, in mm
a, to a, = model parameters all positive
(x)* = max(O,x)

A number of formulae for estimating monthly actual evapotranspira-

tion have been examined and compared in this research (see Vandewiele et
al., 1991). and Romanenko’s type formula (Eq.1) was found to be one of
the best. It allows for both precipitation and soil moisture content as
the available water for evapotranspiration. Parameter a, is controlled
by the permeability of the soil and subsurface of the basin. Slow flow
(Eq.2) is assumed to be linearly proportional to the catchment storage
at the end of the previous month. Parameter a a increases with catchment
permeability. Fast runoff (Eq.3) is thought of as the quantity of rain-
fall running off within the month considered. Parameter a, is influenced
by the degree of urbanization, average basin slope and drainage density
of the basin. The sum of fast and slow runoff gives the total streamflow
(Eq.4) while Eq.5 is the water balance equation.

4. STUDY REGION AND THE USE OF RASIN CHARACTERISTICS

4.1. Study Region

As Weeks and Ashkanasy (1983) have pointed out, in order to provide

satisfactory results of the regression approach, the regional study
should be confined to an area of reasonable hydrological consistency.
Sufficient data should be available to enable some confidence to be held
in both model parameter estimation and regression estimation.
202 G. L. VANDEWIELE ET AL.

The boundary of the study area is defined as the Northern part of

Belgium (about 15,000 km2). Within this area high quality data are
available for more than 60 gauged catchments with at least 10 years of
flow record. It allowed for a study of regional variation of the water
balance terms as well as model parameters.

4.2. The Use of Basin Characteristics

Physical properties of a drainage basin determine the type and rate

of hydrological processes. If the relationships between these properties
and the hydrological response could be established, the hydrological
behaviour of basins could be predicted without the need for direct
process measurement. For practical considerations, however, it is not
possible and in many cases not necessary to consider all physical chara-
cteristics of a basin.
The lumped parameters of the above mentioned model may be predicted
by equations including as independent variables several catchment chara-
cteristics (drainage density, mean gradient of the basin, land use and
vegetation, lithology and soil). Previous studies (Xu, 1988; Huybrechts
et al. 19901 suggest that, for the study region, lithologic characte-
ristics should be studied as a first step in the present research.

5. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

5.1. Regional Distribution of Water Balance Terms and Model Parameters

The model, calculating the major terms of the water balance on a

monthly time base, is calibrated for more than 60 gauged catchments in
Northern Belgium. It allowed for a study of the regional variation of
the water balance terms and model parameters. As examples, the regional
distribution of the slow flow index (SFI), i.e. the ratio of slow runoff
to total runoff calculated by the model, the variation coefficient of
observed runoff (Ovcf) and the parameter a, of the model are shown in
Fig.2 to 4, respectively.
’ Fig.2 shows that the importance of slow flow in the water balance
diminishes clearly from SE to NW. Values of SF1 range from nearly 0.9
for permeable catchments in SE to 0.1 for impermeable catchments in NW.
This picture reflects the geological conditions in the catchments. In
the Western catchments the subsurface is characterized by the presence
of tertiary clay layers. The importance of these clay layers is reducing
significantly to the East where the subsurface consists mainly of highly
permeable sediments such as sand and chalk. Fig.3 shows a complementary
phenomenon with respect to Fig.2; it shows that the variability of the
observed runoff series is decreasing when the permeability of the basin
increases. This is normal since direct runoff is much more variable than
base flow, and the former component is significantly decreasing when the
subsoil is more sandy. Fig.4 shows that the evapotranspiration parameter
al is higher for catchments with clay subsoil. Similar regional distri-
bution maps for other water balance terms and parameters have been made.
which are not shown here.
WATER BALANCE MODELS IN BELGIUM 203

__-_ Country boundaries

-
Catchment bouri‘daries

Fig.2 Regional variation of slow flow index (SFI) in

Northern Belgium

@ 0.7 - 0.9
_.-C Country boundaries
> 0.9
- Catchment boundaries

Fig.3 Regional distributioh of the variation coefficient

of observed runoff series (Ovcf)
204 G. L. VANDEWIELE ET AL.

0.006 - 0.009
@

a3 > 0.009 --
- Catchment boundaries

Fig.4 Regional distribution of the evapotranspiration

parameter al

(A) Y = 0.0903+0.00623X R = .96

(B) Y = 0.9996-0.734X n =-.97
(Cl Y = 0.0195+0.377x R = .96
(D) Y = 0.485-0.00318X R =-.95

Fig.5 Relationships between SFI, Ovcf, estimated variation

coefficient for mean.runoff (Evcf) and percentage of
catchment area occupied by permeable subsoil. (PS)
(X: horizontal- axis, Y: vertical axis. the same for
Fig.6 and Fig.7)
WATER BALANCB MODELS IN BELGIUM 205

5.2. Relationships Between Lithological Characteristics, Water balance

Terms and Model Parameters

Three categories of lithologic variables may be distinguished for

the study region: percentage of the catchment occupied by a permeable
subsurface PS (e.g. sands, gravel and limestone): percentage of the
catchment occupied by impermeable subsurface (e.g. clay) and percentage
of catchment area occupied by hardrock which is present in very small
areas.
Twenty-four catchments located in the region ranging in size from
15.6 to 2163 km2 were selected for use in the study.
Some quantitative relationships between model parameters, water
balance terms, and lithological characteristics are shown in Fig.5 to
7. The corresponding regression equations and correlation coefficients
are also given in these figures.
From Fig.6(AI and Fig.6(DI one can see that parameters a, and a,
can be related directly to the permeability of the subsurface(denoted by
PS)of the catchments. Parameter a2 is the “storage-constant” of the
basin. It is proportional to the speed with which the storage is
emptied. It cannot be explained by PS alone. Drainage density and the
depth to the impervious layer should be investigated for explaining of
a,, which will be studied soon after.
From equation (21 and (3) we see that the proportion of fast runoff
and slow runoff is roughly equal to (aJazI*P, where P is the mean
precipitation. For physical reasons we can expect that this proportion
will decrease when the percentage of the catchment area with permeable
subsoil increases. This seems to be the case as Fig.7(A) shows.
The relationships shown in figures 5 to 7 seem to work in the
Belgian context. It is clear that in subtropical or tropical climates
the high seasonal variability of rainfall will be very important, and
these relationships will perhaps be different there.

5.3. Test on Parameter Evaluations Using Lithological Characteristics

Five catchments, other than the 24 catchments used for constructing

Fig.‘5 to 7, were randomly selected for testing the use of such relation-
ships. The percentage of catchment area with permeable subsoil of each
of these five catchments was determined, Parameters a, and a, then were
determined consulting Fig.6(AI and 6(D), respectively. With the help of
Fig.7(AI it then was possible to compute parameter a2.
In Table 2 observed, estimated and predicted mean annual runoffs
are shown. The estimated runoffs were computed with parameter values
obtained by optimization of the model using an observed runoff series.
The predicted runoffs (only for the 5 test basins) were computed with
parameter values obtained by using Fig,6(AI, 6(D) and 7(A) as explained
above.
The agreement is good except perhaps for basin A878/2. This catch-
ment was found to be difficult to model. In general Table 2 provides
acceptable data for many design applications. The results of Table 2
clearly indicate that this method of parameter estimation is one which
offers a possible solution for ungauged catchments.
206 G. L. VANDEWIELE ET AL

A
/ /. . /t(l/ /

(A) Y = 1.179-0.00963X R =-.96

(8) Y = 1.294-1.500X R =-.97
(C) Y = 0.691-1.348X+0.625X' R =-.95
(D) y = 0.548-0.00668X*1.68*10-=X2 R =-.93

Fig.6 Relationships between SFI, model parameters and

percentage of catchment area occupied by permeable
subsoil (PS)
I \IY I I I I I I I I I I I 7.5 7.5 , , I I I I I I I
1
. - 1 B 6.0 6.0 i I I A
\ .
\

(A) Y = 10.521*EXP(-.0271X) R =-.97

(E) Y = 0.1966*EXP(3.222X) R = .94
(Cl Y = 0.00377+0.930x R = .94
CD) Y = 1.140-0.00767X R =-.91

Fig.7 Relationships between (a3/a2)P, Ovcf, model s tandard

deviation (Mstd) and percentage of catchment area
occupied by permeable subsoil (PS)
WATER BALANCB MODELS IN BELGIUM 207

Table 2. Comparison between observed, estimated and

predicted mean annual runoff
--_----__--------------------------------------------
Catchment Area Observed Estimated Predicted
(Code 1 (km21 (cm) (cm1 (cm)
----------__-----------------------------------------
Calibration catchments
AZ002 532.0 34.51 33.95
A539 110.0 17.36 18.19
A8132 2045.0 19.36 19.28
D1221 2163.0 21.29 21.28
A540 99.6 17.34 17.00
A535 645.0 22.58 22.14
DO099 314.0 21.31 21.18
A527 115.0 25.84 25.14
A523 93.0 24.18 23.40
A512 93.0 29.35 28.55
A528 51.0 22.34 23.17
A32 19.0 24.41 24.35
D2941 15.6 26.10 25.48
D4011 243.0 24.53 24.10
A2006 1244.0 22.34 21.82
D5531 463.0 15.12 14.96
A879/4 102.0 32.71 32.41
A94 378.5 36.05 35.90
DO931 890.0 20.21 19.98
D4933 23.8 22.40 21.73
A9/2 56.4 27.42 26.46
A816 46.0 27.54 26.38
A536 127’. 5 27.80 28.50
D1551 208.4 17.99 18.18
Test catchments
Al35 73.0 25.62 25.26 28.56
A545 88.0 20.92 19.60 21.12
A1012 148.0 22.48 22.10 20.22
A529 89.0 28.82 28.33 28.26
A8?8/2 102.0 31.38 30.80 25.97

6. CONCLUSIONS

A simple physically-based water balance model has been developed.

Regression equations for estimating model parameters from lithological
characteristics were obtained for Northern Belgium. The model would find
more widespread applications because the parameters could be evaluated
for situations where there exists no observed streamflow data for the
purposes of calibration.
The major water balance terms and parameter values derived from
model calibration are regionally mapped for the study region. They
allowed for an extrapolation of the results to ungauged catchments and
larger geographical units.
208 G. L. VAIWEWIELE ET AL.

It should be emphasized that the research undertaken up to now is

limited by time, and only lithologic characteristics have been examined.
The results presented in this paper constitute the first phase of an
ongoing research project and should be regarded primarily as a ‘report
of research in progress’. Further research in this respect will be: (a)
studying of other meaningful basin characteristics as have been proposed
in section 4.2 of the paper. (b) applying more advanced statistical
techniques for the regionalisation study so as to identify the simila-
rity of the basins w.r.t. model parameters and hydrological behavior.

dcknowlea[gement. This research is performed partly in the framework of

the Interuniversity Project “Models for integral water management in the
Flemish region”, coordinated by Prof. A. Van der Beken, and sponsored by
the Flemish Government.

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