Assignment 6 Probability & Probability Distribution

Probability
Addition Rule
1) A company is interested in understanding the consumer behaviour of the capital of
the newly formed state Chhattisgarh, that is Raipur. For this purpose the company
has selected a sample of 300 consumers and asked a simple question, “Do you
enjoy shopping?” Out of 300 respondents, 200 were males and 100 were females.
Out of 200 males, 120 responded “Yes” and out of 100 females, 70 responded
“Yes”. A respondent is selected randomly, ascertain the probability that:
a) The respondent is a male.
b) Enjoys shopping.
c) Is a female and enjoy shopping.
d) Is a male and does not enjoy shopping.
e) Is a female or enjoys shopping.
f) Is a male does not enjoy shopping.
g) Is a male or female.

(Hint. Prepare the probability matrix from the question. Below matrix Is not part of
the question)

Enjoy Male Female Total

Shopping
Yes 120 70 190
No 80 30 110
Total 200 100 300

2) A firm has employed 500 workers. Out of these 500 workers, 300 workers are male
and 200 workers are female. The firm want to assess the job satisfaction levels of
these employees. For this purpose, the company researchers asked a simple
question: “Are you satisfied with the present status of your job?” Out of 300 males
210 responded “Yes” and out of 200 female, 110 responded “Yes” A respondent is
selected at random. Construct a probability matrix and ascertain the probability
that:
a) the respondent is a male. e) is satisfied with the job.
b) is a female and satisfied with the job. f ) is a male or satisfied with the job.
c) Is a male and not satisfied with the job. g) is a male or female.
d) Is a female or satisfied with the job.
Multiplication Rule
3) A box of nine gloves contains two lefthanded gloves and seven right-handed gloves.
a. If two gloves are randomly selected from the box without replacement, what is
the probability that both gloves selected will be right-handed?
b. If two gloves are randomly selected from the box without replacement, what is
the probability there will be one right-handed glove and one left-handed glove
selected?
c. If three gloves are selected with replacement, what is the probability that all
three will be left-handed?
d. If you were sampling with replacement, what would be the answers to (a) and
(b)?

4) Delta a leading marketing research firm in India. A client of Delta is interested in

the probable relationship between smart mobile and smart watch purchase in
Borivali area. The company prepared a single question “Do you have a smart mobile
and/or a smart watch in your home” and conducted survey on 750 persons. The
results obtained from this survey are given below
Mobile| Watch Yes No Total
Yes 300 400 700
No 45 5 750
Total 345 405 750

Binomial P.D
1) Accuracy in taking orders at a drive-through window is an important feature for
fast-food chains. Each month QSR Magazine, www.qsrmagazine.com, publishes
the results of its surveys. Accuracy is measured as the percentage of orders
consisting of a main item, side item, and drink (but omitting one standard item,
such as a pickle) that are filled correctly. In a recent month, suppose that the
percentage of correct orders of this type filled at Burger King was approximately
88%. If a sample of three orders is taken, what are the mean and standard
deviation of the binomial distribution for the number of orders filled accurately?
Suppose that you and two friends go to the drive-through window at Burger King,
and each of you places an order of the type just mentioned. What are the
probabilities that all three, that none of the three, and that at least two of the
three orders will be filled accurately?
 2) Determine the mean and standard deviation of the random variable X in each of
the following binomial distributions: a. n = 4 and p = 0.10 b. n = 4 and p = 0.40 c. n
= 5 and p = 0.80 d. n = 3 and p = 0.50
3) When a customer places an order with Rudy s On-Line Office Supplies, a
computerized accounting information system (AIS) automatically checks to see if
the customer has exceeded his or her credit limit. Past records indicate that the
probability of customers exceeding their credit limit is 0.05. Suppose that, on a
given day, 20 customers place orders. Assume that the number of customers that
the AIS detects as having exceeded their credit limit is distributed as a binomial
random variable. a. What are the mean and standard deviation of the number of
customers exceeding their credit limits? b. What is the probability that 0 customers
will exceed their limits? c. What is the probability that 1 customer will exceed his
or her limit? d. What is the probability that 2 or more customers will exceed their
limits?

4) In a street of 200 families, 40 families purchase the Hindu newspaper. Among the
families a sample of 10 families is selected, find the probability that,

(i) Only one family purchase the news paper

(ii) No family purchasing
(iii) Not more than one family purchase it.

5) Solve the following problems by using the binomial formula.

a. If n = 4 and p = .10, find P(x = 3).
b. If n = 7 and p = .80, find P(x = 4).
c. If n = 10 and p = .60, find P(x ≥7).
d. If n = 12 and p = .45, find P(5≤ x ≤ 7).
Poisson P.D
6) The number of cars passing a point on a road during a 5 minute period may be
modelled by the Poisson distribution with average of 4. Find the probability that in
a 5 minute period (a) 2 cars go past (b) fewer than 3 cars go past.

7) J.D. Power and Associates calculates and publishes various statistics concerning
car quality. The initial quality score measures the number of problems per new
car sold. For 2004 model cars, the Lexus had 0.87 problems per car. Korea’s Kia
had 1.53 problems per car (D. Hakim, Hyundai Near Top of a Quality Ranking, The
New York Times, April 29, 2004, p. C8). Let the random variable X be equal to the
number of problems with a newly purchased Lexus.
a. What assumptions must be made in order for X to be distributed as a Poisson random
variable? Are these assumptions reasonable?

Making the assumptions as in

{I} If you purchased a 2004 Lexus, what is the probability that the new car will have
b. zero problems?
c. two or less problems?
d. Give an operational definition for problem. Why is the operational definition
important in interpreting the initial quality score?

If you purchased a 2004 Kia, what is the probability that the new car will have
a. zero problems?
b. two or less problems?
c. Compare your answers in (a) and (b) to those for the
Lexus in Problem 5.39 (b) and (c).

{II} In 2005, both Lexus and Kia improved their performance. Lexus had 0.81 problems
per car, and Korea s Kia had 1.40 problems per car (S. S. Carty, Toyota Comes Out on
Top Again in Quality Study, USA Today, May 19, 2005,p. 3B).

If you purchased a 2005 Lexus, what is the probability that the new car will have
a. zero problems?
b. two or less problems?
c. Compare your answers in (a) and (b) to those for the 2004 Lexus in Problem (b) and
(c)Refer to Problem

If you purchased a 2005 Kia, what is the probability that the new car will have.
a. zero problems?
b. two or less problems?
c. Compare your answers in (a) and (b) to those for the 2004 Kia in Problem (a) and (b).

3) A toll-free phone number is available from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. for your customers to
register complaints about a product purchased from your company. History indicates that
an average of 0.4 calls are received per minute. a. What properties must be true about
the situation described here to use the Poisson distribution to calculate probabilities
concerning the number of phone calls received in a 1-minute period?

4) A lock manufacturing company supplies locks to a retailer in different batches. A single

batch size contains 300 locks. The company’s past record suggests that on an average, in
a single batch, 10 locks are defective. The number of defects per batch is Poisson
distributed. In a random selection of locks in a batch: (e-10= 0.0000454)
(i) What is the probability of finding exactly three defectives in a batch?
(ii) What is the probability that the batch contains 6 < X > 9
Normal P.D
1) Mumbai Traffic Police claims that whenever any rally is organized in the city, traffic
in the city is seriously disrupted. On the day of rally, City’s traffic is disrupted for
about 3 hours (180 minutes) on an average with a standard deviation of 45
minutes. It is believed that the disruption of traffic is normally distributed. If on a
certain day, a rally is organized in the city what is the probability that:
i)Traffic was disrupted up to 2 hours;
ii)Traffic was disrupted for less than 2 hours
iii)Traffic was disrupted up to 5 hours;
iv)Traffic was disrupted for more than 5 hours
v)Traffic remained disrupted between 1 to 4 hours

2) A hospital specialized in heart surgery. During the previous year, 1800 patients
were admitted for treatment and the average payment made by patient was Rs.
120000 with a standard deviation of Rs 25000. Find:
i)The number of patients who paid bill between 100000 to 150000.
ii)The probability that a patients bill exceed Rs 175000.
iii)The maximum amount paid by the lowest paying one third patients.

3) Sarko airlines flying between two cities books on an average 6000 passengers per
week with a standard deviation of 1250.
i)During what percentage of weeks does the airline book more than 5500
passengers?
ii)During what percentage of weeks does it book fewer than 7000 passenger.