VALEURA ENERGY INC (TSX: VLE)

Share price: C$1.30

December 06, 2022 Target: C$4.50

Transaction in Thailand with a “wow” factor: >20 Rating & target Old New

mbbl/d production for ~US$10 mm

Target C$2.10 C$4.50
Yield 0%
Implied total return 246%
• Valeura continues to execute on its acquisition strategy in Thailand. Share data 2021 2022e 2023e
Valeura Energy Asia (85% owned by Valeura) is acquiring 3 shallow water Shares dil., mm
Mkt cap, US$mm
92
$31
92
$93
92
$93
licences in the Gulf of Thailand with total net oil production of 21.2 mbbl/d EV, US$mm ($13) $85 ($114)
Financial data 2021 2022e 2023e
and net 2P reserves of 24.1 mmbbl (at YE21) from Mubadala Energy for Gas, mmcf/d 1.0 0.0 0.0
Liquids, bbl/d 4 0 19,055
just US$10.4 mm in cash. Additional consideration of up to US$50 mm is Total boe/d (6:1) 169 0 19,055

payable if the Dubai oil benchmark averages >US$100/bbl in 2022, 2023 CFO, US$mm ($4) ($16) $264
Net capex, US$mm ($15) $16 $66
or 2024. Net debt, US$mm ($44) ($8) ($206)

• With an effective date of 31/08/22 and ~US$12 mm post tax cash flow per EPS dil., US$/shr $0.01 $0.01
CFPS dil., US$/shr ($0.04) ($0.19) $3.05
$0.01
month from the new assets, Valeura could receive >US$50 mm working Valuation 2021 2022e 2023e
Share price, C$/shr C$1.30 C$1.30 C$1.30
capital on closing (assumed at the end of 1Q23). EV/DACF n.a. n.a. -0.4x
• The acquired assets consist of (1) 90% WI in the Nong Yao oil field with EV per boe/d n.a. n.a. ($5,965)
Net asset value
12.4 mmbbl net 2P reserves and 8.4 mbbl/d net production that could CNAV, C$/shr C$4.19
grow to >11 mbbl/d by mid 2024, (2) 100% WI in the Jasmine and Ban Yen RENAV, C$/shr
om
C$4.66
ENAV, C$/shr C$6.38
oil fields with ~10 mmbbl net 2P reserves and 10.1 mbbl/d production
.c
dd
P/CNAV 0.3x
and (3) 70% WI in the Manora oil field with 1.7 mmbbl net 2P reserves P/RENAV 0.3x

and 3.3 mbbl/d net production. o b

P/ENAV 0.2x

pr
All figures in US$ unless otherwise noted

• As is often the case in the Gulf of Thailand, all these fields have vastly
@
outperformed initial expectations and, with further infill drilling in new
1
7
reservoirs, the various production profiles are expected to be extended
4
5
with additional reserves potential and the postponement of
h3
decommissioning (currently 2025-2027). The 2022 programme appears
e
w
to already have had a positive impact on reserves with successful infill
o
x
wells at Manora and current production only 10% below 2021. Contact details
• With 25 mbbl/d production by YE22, Valeura is set to become one of the Analyst:
larger international producers listed on the TSX. We are increasing our Stephane Foucaud
target price from C$2.10/sh to C$4.50/sh after incorporating the accretive sf@auctusadvisors.co.uk
+44 7854 891249
impact of the transaction.
Why is Mubadala selling at this price?
There are a few reasons that could explain the transaction: (1) Mubadala is
progressively exiting Thailand and is reducing its exposure to fossil fuels. (2)
Valeura has been negotiating this deal for well over a year. During this period,
the oil price environment has changed dramatically. (3) The transaction
includes a significant contingent payment should oil price increase.
YE23 net cash of ~US$200 mm
Our Core NAV for the company based on its 2P reserves is ~C$4.20/sh.
Including Rossukon, this increases to ~C$4.50/sh. Excluding Rossukon’s
capex, we forecast operating cash flow of US$260 mm in 2023 with ~US$200
mm in free cash flow, representing ~2.5x the current market cap. Our net
cash forecast at YE24 is ~US$355 mm. The magnitude of future cash balances
creates the opportunity for potential shareholder distributions.

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 Figure 1. Financial & operating information
Valeura Energy Inc. (VLE)
Financial & Operating Information 2021 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e
Commodity Prices
Brent US$/bbl $70.35 $101.36 $100.00 $92.45 $73.71 $70.00
USD/CAD US$/C$ $0.77 $0.78 $0.77 $0.80 $0.80 $0.80
USD/GBP US$/£ 1.375 1.308 1.400 1.400 1.400 1.400
Production
Oil and Liquids bbl/d 4 0 19,055 24,771 18,032 11,900
Natural Gas mmcf/d 1 0 0 0 0 0
Total (6 mcf = 1 boe) boe/d 169 0 19,055 24,771 18,032 11,900
% Oil and Liquids % 2% 0% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Netbacks
Realized Price US$/boe n.a n.a $99.17 $91.79 $72.64 $68.42
Royalties US$/boe n.a n.a $10.82 $9.92 $7.72 $7.24
Production Costs US$/boe n.a n.a $25.08 $25.53 $32.06 $48.58
Operating Netback US$/boe n.a n.a $63.27 $56.34 $32.86 $12.61
Taxes US$/boe n.a n.a $16.32 $21.43 $9.57 $6.60
Cash Flow Netback US$/boe n.a n.a $37.98 $27.21 $18.83 $4.05
Government Take % 0% 0% 16% 23% 13% 10%
Financials
Cash Flow (CFO) US$mm ($4) ($16) $264 $246 $124 $18
CFPS - diluted US$/shr ($0.04) ($0.19) $3.05 $2.84 $1.43 $0.20
EBITDAX a US$mm ($4) ($16) $378 $440 $187 $46
E&D Capex US$mm ($0) $1 $129 $97 $67 $70
A&D Capex, Net US$mm ($15) $15 ($63) $0 $0 $0
Total Net Capex US$mm ($15) $16 $66 $97 $67 $70
Total Net Capex/CFO x 3.8x -1.0x 0.2x 0.4x 0.5x 4.0x
Leverage
o m
Net Debt US$mm ($44) ($8)
.c
($206) ($355) ($412) ($360)

dd
Net debt/CFO (Trailing) x n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Entry Net Debt/CFO x n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Capital Structure
o b
Basic Shares o/s @ YE
Diluted Shares o/s @ YE
mm
mm
87
92 pr 87
92
87
92
87
92
87
92
87
92
Market Capitalization
Enterprise Value
US$mm
US$mm
1 @
$31
($13)
$93
$85
$93
($114)
$96
($259)
$96
($316)
$96
($264)
Dividends & Sustainability
4 7
Dividends US$mm
5 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dividends
Dividend Yield
CAD/shr
%
e h3 0
n.a.
0
n.a.
0
n.a.
0
n.a.
0
n.a.
0
n.a.
Free Cash Flow
Cash Use/CFO
US$mm
% o w $11
376%
($33)
-99%
$198
25%
$149
39%
$57
54%
($52)
398%
Performance
Prod. Per Shr Growth (Y/Y) - dil.
x% -74% -100% n.a. 30% -27% -34%
PPS Growth (Y/Y) DDA - dil. b % -124% -100% n.a. -66% -44% -37%
CFPS Growth (Y/Y) - dil. % 366% 323% -1714% -7% -50% -86%
CFPS Growth (Y/Y) DDA - dil. b % -524% 196% 1629% -76% -61% -86%
ROCE % 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Net Asset Value c

CNAV (Atax) - diluted CAD/shr C$4.19

RENAV (Atax) - diluted CAD/shr C$4.66
Unrisked NAV (Atax) - diluted CAD/shr C$6.38
P/CNAV x 0.3x
P/RENAV x 0.3x
P/Unrisked NAV x 0.2x
Valuation 2021 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e
Share Price, YE/Current CAD/shr C$0.44 C$1.30 C$1.30 C$1.30 C$1.30 C$1.30
P/CF x -7.5x -5.3x 0.3x 0.4x 0.7x 5.1x
EV/DACF x n.a. n.a. -0.4x -1.1x -2.6x -15.0x
Target EV/DACF x n.a. n.a. -0.1x -0.8x -2.0x -10.9x
EV per boe/d US$/boepd n.a. n.a. ($5,965) ($10,472) ($17,547) ($22,161)
EV per 2P boe US$/boe n.a. $15.37 $79.48 $24.77 $18.55 $12.33
a) EBITDAX = Pre-Int. & Pre-Tax Cash Flow; b) DDA = Debt-and-Dividend-Adjusted
c) CNAV incl. 2P reserves, RENAV incl. 2P reserves + Risked LT inventory upside, ENAV incl. 2P reserves + Unrisked LT inventory upside
Source: Auctus Advisors, Company Disclosures **Futures strip as of 6-Dec-22

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 The transaction

Valeura is acquiring three shallow water producing assets in the Gulf of Thailand with
total net oil production of 21.2 mbbl/d and net 2P reserves of 24.1 mmbbl (at YE21) from
Mubadala Energy for US$10.4 mm in cash.

Additional consideration of up to US$50 mm is payable if the Dubai benchmark oil prices

average >US$100/bbl in 2022, 2023 or 2024.

The acquisition is being made through an SPV, Valeura Energy Asia, in which Valeura holds
85%. Valeura will pay a US$6 mm deposit and anticipates that the Acquisition will close in
1Q23.

The overall decommissioning liability for the three acquired assets is ~US$215 mm.
Previous owners expected production to cease between 2025 and 2027 but Valeura
expectsmultiple life extension projects, that could push out decommissioning many
years, eith the liscenes expiring in 2033-36.

The Gulf of Thailand assets o m

d.c
b d
The Nong Yao, Jasmine/Ban Yen and Jasmine oil fields are located in ~45-75 m of water.
o
The licences expire in 2033-2036. pr
1 @
4 7
5
e h3
o w
x

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 Figure 2. The assets’ locations

o m
d.c
b d
o
pr
1 @
Source: Company
7
3 54
h production from 8.1 mbbl/d to 11 mbbl/d from a
G11/48 – Nong Yao: growingenet
12.4 mmbbl field (net) ow
x
Valeura Energy Asia will hold 90% WI in Nong Yao. The 10% partner in the block is Palang
Sophon which is also Valeura’s partner in its G10/48 Licence.

The Nong Yao oil field is located ~160 km offshore and in 75 m water depth. The field
started production in 2015 and was initially expected to recover 2.7 mmbbl. By the end
of 2021, the Nong Yao oil field had produced over 20 mmbbl of oil and every year the
expected ultimate recovery of oil from the field has increased with the identification and
development of additional accumulations. At YE21, the Nong Yao oil field was still
estimated to hold 12.4 mmbbl of 2P oil reserves (net).

Current production is ~8.1 mbbl/d (net) with 37 wells and two wellhead platforms. An
extension of the field has already been approved with a new MOPU and 9 new producer
wells and 3 new water injectors. This is expected to increase net production to 11 mbbl/d
(net) by 2Q24 with a steep decline thereafter (6.4 mbbl/d in 2025 and production ceasing
at the end of 2027-2028).

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 The overall future capex of the extension is estimated at ~US$65 mm (net). Including
drilling, the total net remaining capex (including the extension) to produce the
12.4 mmbbl of remaining 2P reserves is estimated at ~US$130 mm. Net opex per year is
mostly fixed at ~US$40 mm and expected to increase to US$55-60 mm per year with the
extension in 2024.

Oil realisations are in line with Brent.

With the Nong Yao extension facilities in place, Valeura intends to pursue further
opportunities on the south-eastern area of the field. Some have already been identified
on 3D seismic.

The licence expires in 2036 and the net decommissioning cost for Nong Yao is estimated
at US$56 mm.

B5/27 – Jasmine and Ban Yen: Stable production with ~10 mmbbl net 2P reserves

The SPV will hold 100% WI in Jasmine and Ban Yen oil fields. The Jasmine and Ban Yen oil
fields are located ~180 km offshore and in 60 m of water. o m
d.c
d
The fields were initially expected to recover 7 mmbbl. By the end of 2021, the Jasmine
b
o
pr
and Ban Yen fields had produced over 85 mmbbl of oil. The fields were still estimated to
hold 9.9 mmbbl of 2P oil reserves (net) at YE21.
1 @
4 7
Current production at the Jasmine and Ban Yen oil fields is ~10,100 bbl/d with 132 wells
5
e h3
and six platforms. Valeura envisages a 19 well infill drilling programme (US$3-4 mm cost
per well) over 2023-2026 to offset declines and potentially add reserves. Production is
o w
currently expected to cease in 2026-2027
x
Net opex per year is mostly fixed at ~US$110 mm. Oil realisations are ~US$2/bbl below
Brent.

The licence expires in 2032 and the net decommissioning cost for the fields is estimated
at US$125 mm.

G1/48 – 1.7 mmbbl net 2P reserves in production with upside

The SPV will hold 70% WI in Manora. The 30% partner is Tap Oil. The field is located 84 km
offshore and in 45 m water depth.

Manora was estimated to hold 1.7 mmbbl of 2P oil reserves (net) at YE21 but the drilling
of two successful infill wells in 2022 could add 0.5 mmbbl.

Current net production is 3,300 bbl/d with 22 wells on a single wellhead platform. The
two infill wells drilled in 2022 are expected to be put in production in late 2022 and should

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 allow net production to be ~3,000 bb/d by YE23 (a typical well costs US$3-4 mm and has
an IP rate of ~500 bbl/d). While production was initially estimated to cease in late 2022,
the life of the field has been extended to 2025. There is a potential to drill at least an
additional two wells.

Net opex per year is mostly fixed at ~US$25-30 mm. Oil realisations are on par with Brent.

The licence expires in 2033 and the net decommissioning cost for the fields is estimated
at US$32 mm.

Economic considerations and valuation

Reflections on the transaction

The price paid by Valeura for the assets is US$10.4 mm plus contingent consideration of
up to US$50 mm. This corresponds to US$0.43-2.51/bbl of 2P reserves. At US$85/bbl for
Brent, the company estimates a payback period of 2 weeks.

o
The transaction is expected to complete in 1Q23 with US$30 mm pre tax cashflow per
m
d.c
month from the effective date of 31/08/2022. Assuming 60% tax (including the Special
b d
Remuneration Benefit (SRB)), this suggests US$12 mm after tax cash flow per month.
o
pr
Assuming some limited capex in the interim period, we estimate that Valeura would
receive >US$50 mm in working capital (net of the US$10 mm payment to Mubadala) on
@
completion (assuming completion on 31/03/2023). 7 1
5 4
e h3
o w
x

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 Production and Capex

Figure 3. Total net production forecast (assuming closing of the Mubadala

acquisition at the end of March 2023) – excludes Rossukon

o m
d.c
b d
o
Source: Auctus pr
1 @
4 7
Figure 4. Net capex programme including contribution to decommissioning fund
(excludes Rossukon) 5
e h3
o w
x

Source: Auctus

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 Financial framework and fiscal terms

The fiscal terms for Manora and Nong Yao consist of (1) 5-15% royalties (8% for both fields
currently), (2) SRB of 0-75% depending on aggregate profit, spending and drilling activities
(currently ~20% for Nong Yao and 8% for Manora) and (3) a 50% petroleum tax on net
profits.

The Jasmine/Ban Yen fields benefit from more attractive fiscal terms with royalty of 17%
(including 12.5% state royalty) and 50% petroleum income tax. Importantly the 12.5%
state royalty is recoverable from the petroleum income tax.

Figure 5. Fiscal illustration at US$100/bbl

o m
d.c
b d
o
pr
1 @
4 7
5
e h3
o w
x

Source: Company

The previous acquisition of Wassana and Rossukon was accompanied by large tax losses.
We had previously assumed that these tax losses would be applied to the petroleum tax
profit (they cannot be applied to SRB) on Wassana cash flow. However, with no ring
fencing, they could also be applied to the cash flow of Nong Yao and Manora, with an
material impact on after tax cash flow. We understand that the tax losses cannot be
applied Jasmine/Ban Yen.

In addition, with more production and cash flow, the capex for Rossukon could provide a
further tax shield.

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 Valuation

The acquisition of the Mubadala assets is very accretive in the current environment.
Overall, the transaction increases our Core NAV based on the company’s 2P reserves from
C$1.55 per share to ~C$4.20 per share. Including Rossukon, this increases to ~C$4.50 per
share.

This valuation does not include any potential upside associated with the possible reserves
additions and production extension on the Mubadala assets.

We are not including any value for the Turkey deep gas asset at this stage.

We forecast that Valeura will hold ~US$200 mm in net cash at YE23 (excluding Rossukon).
This represents ~2.5x the current market cap of the company. While Valeura is a growth
company and will continue to consider acquisitions, the future net cash position is so
substantial that we believe that some shareholder distributions could be considered.

Figure 9. NAV Table

WI Reserves/
GCoS Unriskedo m
EMV
Unrisked
EMV -
Asset Valuation Resources
(mmboe)
(%)
d.c
(US$mm) (US$mm)
NAV -
C$/Share
C$/Share
% Total

b d
Corporate
o -56 -56 -0.88 -0.88 -19.0%
Net Debt YE 2022 ($mm)
G&A ($mm)
pr 8
-64
8
-64
0.13
-1.01
0.13
-1.01
2.7%
-21.7%
Thailand
1 @
Thailand - Wassana (G10/48) 2P Reserves
4 7 5.53 100% 94 94 1.49 1.49 31.9%
Residual MOPU payment in 2023
Thailand - Nong Yao 2P Reserves
h35 10.54
100%
100%
-7
113
-7
113
-0.11
1.79
-0.11
1.79
-2.4%
38.4%
Thailand - Jasmine/Ban Yen 2P Reserves
w e 8.42 100% 107 107 1.69 1.69 36.3%

xo
Thailand - Manora 1.45 100% 14 14 0.22 0.22 4.6%
Total Core NAV 265 265 4.19 4.19 90.0%
Thailand - G10/48 Niramai and Mayuira 2C
resources 7.31 10% 124 12 1.85 0.18 4.0%
Thailand - Rossukon (G6/48) 2C Resources 4.00 84% 23 19 0.34 0.28 6.1%

Total Risked Upside 147 32 2.19 0.47 10.0%

RENAV 412 297 6.38 4.66 100.0%

Source: Auctus Advisors, Company Reports

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 Copyright and Risk Warnings
Valeura Energy inc (“Valeura” or the “Company”) is a corporate client of Auctus Advisors LLP (“Auctus”).
Auctus receives, and has received in the past 12 months, compensation for providing corporate broking and/or investment
banking services to the Company, including the publication and dissemination of marketing material from time to time.
MiFID II Disclosures
This document, being paid for by a corporate issuer, is believed by Auctus to be an ‘acceptable minor non-monetary benefit’
as set out in Article 12 (3) of the Commission Delegated Act C(2016) 2031 which is part of UK law by virtue of the European
Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018. It is produced solely in support of our corporate broking and corporate finance business. Auctus
does not offer a secondary execution service in the UK.
This note is a marketing communication and NOT independent research. As such, it has not been prepared in accordance
with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and this note is NOT subject to
the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Author
The research analyst who prepared this research report was Stephane Foucaud, a partner of Auctus.
Not an offer to buy or sell
Under no circumstances is this note to be construed to be an offer to buy or sell or deal in any security and/or derivative
instruments. It is not an initiation or an inducement to engage in investment activity under section 21 of the Financial Services
and Markets Act 2000.
Note prepared in good faith and in reliance on publicly available information
Comments made in this note have been arrived at in good faith and are based, at least in part, on current public information
that Auctus considers reliable, but which it does not represent to be accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as
such. The information, opinions, forecasts and estimates contained in this document are current as of the date of this
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Information purposes only o m
.c
This document is intended to be for background information purposes only and should be treated as such. This note is furnished
d
the Company or any other person. b d
on the basis and understanding that Auctus is under no responsibility or liability whatsoever in respect thereof, whether to

o
pr
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@
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h3
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