Prob Monday

For BBS / BBA / BBM / MBA
Probability
theory
© Prajeet K. Timalsina
Shanker Dev Campus (SDC)
SAP Institute of Management
Content . . .
 Basics probability:
(Classical approach Vs Subjective approach)
 Use of combination
 Theorems of Probability
 Conditional Probability
 Bays Theorem
ⒸPrajeet K. Timalsina
Shanker Dev Campus 2
Probability Theory
 The probability is the chance or possibility or likelihood of occurring or not
occurring an event under an experiment having the numerical value from 0 to 1.
 If probability is 0, then it represents the impossible event similarly if probability is
1, then it represents the sure event.
 Initially, the application of probability was made by European mathematicians.
 Mathematically it can be expressed as:
Where,
M M = Total no. of favorable events
P (A) =
N N = Total no. of possible event
P(A) = Probability of event A
About Playing Cards
Total Cards = 52
Black = 26 Red = 26
Spade = 13 Club = 13 Heart = 13 Diamond = 13
Ace Two Three Four Five Six Seven Eight Nine Ten Jack Queen King
(A) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (J) (Q) (K)
Some facts about playing cards:

a. Jack card is also known as Knave card.
ⒸPrajeet K. Timalsina b. There are 4 cards in each category of card from ace to king.
Shanker Dev Campus c. There are 12 face cards or court card or picture cards consisting 4 jacks, 4 queens and 4 kings. 4
Solution:
Given that
P (0) = 0.10, P (1) = 0.36, P (2) = 0.20, P (3) = 0.15, P (4) = 0.19
Class Work 1_____
On the basis of past experience, A a) Checking for these valid probability assignments
storekeeper assigns the following
probability of sales for 0, 1, 2, 3, and Total probability = P (0) + P (1) + P (2) +P (3) +P (4)
4 goods. = 0.10 + 0.36 + 0.20 + 0.15 + 0.19
P (0) = 0.10, P (1) = 0.36, P (2) = 0.20, = 1.00
P (3) = 0.15, P (4) = 0.19 Since total probability is 1, the given distribution has valid
a) Are these valid probability probability assignment.
assignments?
b) Let A be the event of sales for 2 b) Let A be the event of sales for 2 or fewer goods
or fewer goods. Find P (A).
P (A) = P (0) + P (1) + P (2)
= 0.10 + 0.36 + 0.20
= 0.66
Class work 2_____ Solution:
Tickets numbered from 1 to Total number of possible case (N) = 30
30 are mixed up together Sample space (S) = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, ..., 30
and then a ticket is drawn at i. Let A be the event of getting number of 4 multiple
random. What is the A = 4, 8, 12, 16, 20, 24, 28
probability that the ticket Favorable case (M) = 7
has a number: M 7
i. which is divisible by 4?  P(A) = =
N 30
ii. which is a multiple of 4 ii. Let A be the event of getting number of 4 multiple and
or 5? B be the event of getting number of 5 multiple
iii. Which is multiple of 5 or A = 4, 8, 12, 16, 20, 24, 28
7? B = 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30
iv. which is prime number? Favorable Case (M) = 7 + 6 – 1 (since 20 is repeated)
v. which is a multiple of 5 = 12
and 6? M
 P(A or B) = N =
12 2
=
30 5
v. Let A be the event of getting number of 5 multiple
iii. Let A be the event of getting number and B be the event of getting number of 6
of 5 multiple and B be the event of multiple
getting number of 7 multiple A = 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30
A = 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 B =6, 12, 18, 24, 30
B = 7, 14, 21, 28 Favorable case for A (M) = 6
Favorable case (M) = 6 + 4 = 10 Favorable case for B (M) = 5
We have,
M 10 1
 P(A or B) = = = M 6 1
N 30 3 P(A) = = =
N 30 5
M 5 1
iv. Let A be the event of getting prime P(B) = = =
N 30 6
number 1 1 1
 P(A and B) = P(A)  P(B) =  =
5 6 30
A = 2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23, 29
Alternatively
Favorable case (M) = 10
Favorable case for A and B (M) = 1
M 10 1
 P(A) = = =
N 30 3 M 1
 P(A and B) =
ⒸPrajeet K. Timalsina N 30
Use of Combination under Probability
If two or more events are to be selected at a time (i.e. Random), then in that condition we
should use combination (ncr) for determining favorable case (M) and possible case (N)
under probability.
𝐧!
Where,
ncr = n = total events
𝐫! 𝐧 𝐫 !
r = required events
! = factorial (product from n to 1
Taking n = 10 and r = 3, then the value of ncr can be obtained as:

10! 10  9  8  7!
ncr = 10c3 = = = 120
3!(10 – 3)! 3  2  1  7!
It means in 120 ways 3 events can be selected from 10 events.
Class Work 3_____
A committee of four members is formed out We have;
of 5 statisticians, 7 engineers, 6 economists Total possible case (N) = 4 from all 22 members
and 4 doctors. Find the probability that the !
committee includes: =
! !
(a) consists one of each kind (b) all of them
from same profession (c) 2 statistician and 2 = 7315
doctors (d) 1 doctor and rest others (e) at least
one statistician Req. (a) One of each kind
Solution: Favorable Case (M) = One from each kind
Given that; = 1 from statistician, 1 from
Statisticians 5 Engineer, 1 from Economist
Engineers 7 and 1 from Doctor
Economists 6 = 5C1  7C1  6C1 × 4C1
Doctors 4 = 5  7  6  4 = 840
Total 22 4 members should
M 840
be randomly picked.  Required probability = = = 0.115
N 7315
ⒸPrajeet K. Timalsina 9
Shanker Dev Campus
Req. (b) All from Same Profession Req. (c) 2 Statisticians and 2 doctors
Fav. Case (M) = All from Same Profession Fav. Case (M) = 2 Statisticians and 2 doctors
= Either all 4 from statistician or
= 2 from statistician and 2 from
all 4 from Engineer or all 4
Doctor
from Economist or all 4 from
Doctor = 5C2  4C2
= 5C 4 + 7 C 4 + 6 C 4 + 4C 4
= 10  6 = 60
= 5 + 35 + 15 + 1 = 56
M
M  Required probability =
 Required probability = N
N
56 60
= = 0.0076 = = 0.0082
7315 7315
Req. (d) 1 Doctor and rest others Req. (e) At least 1 Statisticians
Fav. Case (M) = 1 Doctor and rest others We know that;

P(At least 1 statistician) = 1 – P(Non-Statistician)
= 1 from Doctor and 3 from
Non-Doctors Finding Favorable Case for None is Statistician
Fav. Case (M) = None is Statistician

= 4C 1  18C
3
= All 4 from non-statistician
= 4  816 = 3264
= 17C
4
M = 2380
 Required probability =
N M 2380
P(Non-Statistician) = = = 0.325
3264 N 7315
= = 0.4462
7315
 Required probability = 1 – 0.325 = 0.675
Probability of Events in Favor and Against
If odds in favour of an event are a : b then the probability of A is obtained as:
a
P (A) =
a+b
Similarly,
If odds against of an event are a : b then the probability of A is obtained as
b
P (A) =
a+b
Where
a = Front value of ratio (i.e., success)
b = Back value of ratio (i.e., failure)
Solution:
Let A = Event of A speaking truth
B = Event of B speaking truth
Then we have,
Class work 4_____
3 3 – 3 4
The odds against A speaking the truth P(A) = 4 + 3 = 7 P(A) = 1 – 7 = 7
are 4 : 3 while the odds in favour of
B speaking the truth are 5 : 4. What is 5 5 – 5 4
P(B) = 5 + 4 = 9 P(B) = 1 – 9 = 9
the probability that A and B
contradict each other in stating the Now,
same fact? – –
P(Both contradict each other) = P(A) × P(B) or P(B) × P(A)
3 4 5 4
=7 ×9 + 9 ×7
32
= 63
Class work 5_____ b) Two green balls
There are 4 green and 7 red balls in a box. Two balls are If with replacement case
drawn one after another with replacement and without P (two green balls) = P(Green in 1st draw)P(Green in 2nd draw)
replacement. Find the probability of getting: (a) two red 4 4 16
=  = = 0.132
balls (b) two green balls (c) one ball of each color. 11 11 121
If without replacement case
Solution:
P (two green balls) = P(Green in 1st draw)P(Green in 2nd draw)
Green ball 4
Two balls are drawn 4 3 12
Red Ball 7 =  = = 0.109
one after another 11 10 110
Total 11
c) One ball of each color
Here two balls are to be drawn in two different attempts. So, combination If with replacement case
should not be applied to get possible case and favorable case. P (one of each color) = P(Red in 1st draw)  P(Green in 2nd
a) Two red balls draw) or P(Green in 1st draw)  P(Red
If with replacement case in 2nd draw)
P (two red balls) = P (red in 1st draw)  P (red in 2nd draw) 7 4 4 7 28 28 56
=  +  = + = = 0.463
7 7 49 11 11 11 11 121 121 121
= 11  11 = 121 = 0.405
If without replacement case
If without replacement case P (one of each color) = P(Red in 1st draw)  P(Green in 2nd
P (two red balls) = P (red in draw)  P (red in
1st 2nd draw) draw) or P(Green in 1st draw)  P(Red
7 6 42 in 2nd draw)
=  = = 0.382
11 10 110 7 4 4 7 28 28 56
ⒸPrajeet K. Timalsina = 11  10 + 11  10 = 110 + 110 = 110 = 0.509
Shanker Dev Campus
Theorems of Probability
 The theorems of probability must be applied at that condition
when the probability of happening or not happening events
are already given in the question.
 There are two theorems of probability and they are given
below:
1. Multiplicative Theorem
2. Additive Theorem
Multiplicative Theorem:
The probability of two or more independent events occurring
together or in succession is the product of their respective
probabilities.
For example:
P(A and B) = P(A  B) = P(A)  P(B)
P(A, B and C) = P(A  B  C) = P(A)  P(B)  P(C)
If the terms like both, all & and are given, then in that case we use
NOTE: multiplicative theorem
Additive Theorem:
 The probability of occurring at least one event from two or
more events is the sum of their respective probabilities.
 There are two conditions for applying additive theorem.
1. For Mutually Exclusive Events:

P(A or B) = P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B)
P(A, B or C) = P(A  B  C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)
AB B
A
2. For Mutually Inclusive Events:
ABC
AC BC
P(A or B) = P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B) C
P(A, B or C) = P(A  B  C)
= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(AB) – P(BC) – P (CA) + P(ABC)
If the terms like at least, one of them & Either - or are given, then
NOTE: in that case we use additive theorem
P(At least one) = 1 – P(none)

Then,
4
P (A) =
52
Class Work 6_____ 4
A card is drawn from a well P (B) =
52
shuffled pack. What is the
probability that the card will be a Hence the prob. of drawing either a king
king or a queen ? or a queen in a single draw is:
Solution: P (A or B) = P(A  B)
Let = P (A) + P (B)
A = event of drawing a king card 4 4
= +
B = event of drawing a queen card 52 52
8
=
52
2
=
Class Work 7_____ Since there is a common card for King of
A card is drawn from a well Spade, then
shuffled pack. What is the 1
P (A  B) =
probability that the card will be a 52
king or a spade?
Hence the prob. of drawing either a king
Solution:
or a spade in a single draw is:
Let
A = event of drawing a king card P (A or B) = P(A  B)
B = event of drawing a spade card
= P (A) + P (B) – P (A  B)
Then,
4 13 1
4 = + –
P (A) = 52 52 52
52
16
13 =
P (B) = 52
52 4
=
Class Work 8_____
The probability that a employees travel from Req. (a) P (B) =
bus is 0.80 and the probability that they travel
from bus and taxi 0.40. The Probability that We know,
they use at least one means of vehicle is 0.60.
a) Find the probability that they travel from P(A  B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A  B)
taxi.
b) Are both events statistically independent? Or, = + P(B) –
Or, – = P(B)
Solution: P(B) = 0.20
Let A = event of traveling from bus
B = event of traveling from taxi Req. (a) Testing Independence
Then, P (A  B) = P (A) × P (B)
P (A) = = 0.80 × 0.20
P (A  B) = = 0.16
P (A  B) = Decision:
Since P (A) × P (B) ≠ P (A  B), the given events
are not statistically independent.
Class Work 9_____
The probability of three students solving a P (Problem will be solved) = ?
problem of statistics are in the ratio 2 : 3 : 4.
Find the probability that the given problem
will be solved. As per the information given in the
question, the probability of problem will
Solution:
be solved can be expressed as the
Ratio for solving the problem by 3 students = 2 : 3 : 4
probability that at least one can solve the
Total Ratio (R) = 2 + 3 + 4 = 9 problem. Then we get.
Let, A, B and C be the events of solving the problem
by 3 students respectively. Then, P(Problem Solved) = P(At least 1 can solve)
— = 1 – P(none can solve)
P(A) = 2/9  P( A ) = 1 – (2/9) = 7/9
— = 1 – [P(— — —
A ) . P( B ) . P( C )]
P(B) = 3/9 = 1/3  P( B ) = 1 – (1/3) = 2/3 = 1 – [7/9  2/3  5/9]
— = 1 – 0.096
P(C) = 4/9  P( C ) = 1 – (4/9) = 5/9
= 0.904
De-Morgan's Law Solution:
Let A = Event of selecting in firm A.
 De-Morgan's law of probability is basically B = Event of selecting in firm B.
used at that condition when compliment Then,
probabilities for union () or intersection () P(A) = 0.30
are given.
P(—
B ) = 0.60 P(B) = 1 – 0.60 = 0.40
 Under this, following notations are used:
— — P ( A  B ) = 0.55
a) P ( A  B ) = (A  B )
— —  According to De-Morgan’s law
b) P ( A  B ) = P (A  B)
— —
c)
 — —
P (A  B) = P ( A  B ) ( A  B ) = P ( A  B ) = 0.55
Then, P (A  B) = 1 – (—
A —
Class Work 10_____
A candidate gives the application in two firms A B ) = 1 – 0.55 = 0.45
and B for a job. The probability that he is selected in Now,
firm A is 0.3 and rejected in firm B is 0.60. The
probability of at least one of his applications being P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B)
rejected is 0.55. What is the probability that he will = 0.30 + 0.40 – 0.45
be selected in one of the firms?
= 0.25

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For BBS / BBA / BBM / MBA

Spade = 13 Club = 13 Heart = 13 Diamond = 13

Some facts about playing cards:

Taking n = 10 and r = 3, then the value of ncr can be obtained as:

Fav. Case (M) = 1 Doctor and rest others We know that;

Fav. Case (M) = None is Statistician

P(A, B and C) = P(A  B  C) = P(A)  P(B)  P(C)

1. For Mutually Exclusive Events:

P(A, B or C) = P(A  B  C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)

= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(AB) – P(BC) – P (CA) + P(ABC)

P(At least one) = 1 – P(none)

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