Training Workshop on Local Public Policy for

Legislators Towards Anticipatory Local

Governance
Looking Back and Moving Forward: Integrating Strategic Foresight and Futures Thinking
Province of Ilocos Sur

LIZAN E. PERANTE-CALINA, DPA

 S

omeone asked an AI Program to paint what

Manila would look like in 2070
Long-Termism vs. Short-Termism
 Culled from the presentation of Dr. Alex Brillantes (2022)

Objectives
To promote a culture of anticipatory, agile and collaborative government;

To promote Strategic Management through the power of foresight

To be able to understand how Futures Thinking and Foresight support governance and
development
To provide practical application of the framework to current and future pandemics for making
civil servants futures-ready

To be able to explore emerging issues and trends in a VUCA world.

What are the implications
of COVID-19?
 DISRUPTION.
DISCONTINUITY.
DISTURBANCE.
Futures Studies &
Foresi
ght`
 6 Ds of Exponentials (growth cycle of
exponential technologies)

▪ Digitalization
▪ Deception
▪ Disruption
▪ Demonetization
▪ Dematerialization
▪ Democratization
NOW IS THE TIME
TO FORMULATE
STRATEGIES
 TUNA
(Turbulence.Uncertain.Novel.Ambiguo
us.)
(Scoblic 2020)

ART
Adaptive.Resilient.Tranformative
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/1dQMDitiAw0/maxresdefault.jpg
`
 The future that we want is a
subject matter that suggests
an ideal scenario of
communities, of families,
living happily, without
problems, without worries,
and satisfied with their lives.
HOW DO WE CREATE OUR
PREFERRED FUTURE?
 STABLE. SAFE. SECURED. UNDERSTANDABLE, PREDICTABLE,
ORDERLY, AND WITHIN OUR CONTROL

Lizan E. Perante-Calina 2020

PROFESSIONAL CIVIL SERVANTS

HAVE A ROLE TO PLAY IN A FUTURE SCENARIO
OF A PROSPEROUS
PHILIPPINES.
 TO PREPARE THEMSELVES FOR
THEFUTURE, PROFESSIONAL CIVIL
SERVANTSMUST BE FUTURE
THINKERS.
Governance Reform Framework (GRF)
(Brillantes and Perante-Calina 2018)
 13

6 Abilities of a Phronetic Leader

a bid for a holistic approach to carving out desirable futures
Futures Leadership and Governance Framework (Perante-Calina 2020)
PHRONETIC Vision
LEADERSHIP To build a just and humane
society
1) Ability to set a good goal and make judgment FUTURES THINKING FUTURES Maka-Kalikasan Maka-Bansa
on goodness
2) Ability to perceive reality as it is HIRAYA Motto
3) Ability to create the ba 4) Ability to articulate FORESIGHT Maka-Diyos, Makatao
the

essence into narratives

5) Ability to exercise political power to achieve an
envisioned story
6) Ability to foster phronesis in others

Common Good
LEADERSHIP AND
GOVERNANCE

KNOWLEDGE CO-CREATION Lizan Perante-Calina 2020

Filipino Values
Bayanihan
Balikatan
Malasakit
Galang
Ugnayan
Pananagutan

Intergenerational Responsibility
Well-being
Governance Reform Framework 5.0
Brillantes, Calina, and Domingo 2022

GLOCALZ Vision Values-driven, Agile, COOPETI

Data-fueled, Technology enabled, • SDGs Anticipatory mindsets and behaviors
Responsive • PDP
Institutions/Systems/ Processes
AT • AmBisyon Natin 2040 TI
I Meaningful Citizen Engagement Phronetic Leadership (Relentless bearers)
ON (Participation of Claim Holders) pursuit of the common good by duty
ON

Information Analysis, Communication, Prospection, and Foresight

What is Futures Thinking?

 ‘Futures’ is an approach to
identifying long term
issues and challenges
shaping the future
development of a policy
area and to exploring their
implications for policy
development.

Government Office for Science, The Futures Toolkit,

2017

Futures Thinking and Strategic

Foresight
NOT PREDICTING
THE FUTURE

but rather to
IMAGINING
MULTIPLE
FUTURES IN
CREATIVE
WAYS
-
Scoblic 2020

http://i0.wp.com/www.nwedible.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Creative-Brain.jpg?resize=1024%2C1024
 Futures
Thinking &
Strategic
Foresight
 heightens ability to

SENSE. SHAPE. ADAPT

to what happens in the years ahead

-Scoblic 2020

http://i0.wp.com/www.nwedible.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Creative-Brain.jp

What are the

Focal Questions: possible,
Taking the Futures
Thinking Lens
How will cities look like in the next 18 months, in 5 years, 10
What are the implications of COVID-19 to local governance?
plausible,
probable and preferred futures of local
governments? Lizan E. Perante-Calina 2020

years or even 20 years?

Futures Studies & Foresight

Official European Union’s
Definition
It brings together KEY AGENTS OF
CHANGE and VARIOUS SOURCES`
in order to develop strategic visions and
anticipatory intelligence.
Benefits of Doing Foresight

Q: Why should I embark on a Foresight exercise?

• Generate new ideas and approaches to a policy or

strategy area
• Explore innovative ways of responding to policy
challenges
• Shift the focus of senior leader/management dialogue
towards the long term
• Improve the culture of strategic thinking to be more
agile, adaptive, proactive and future-facing
 • Show or attain ‘thought leadership’ on a given topic

Government Office for Science, The Futures Toolkit,

Exercise: Anecdotes of Tomorrow

Anecdotes of Tomorrow
How did you feel about the exercise?
 How did you see the importance of
foresight and futures thinking in your
respective sectors/fields?

Futures
Thinking and Policy
Foresight
Tools
`
EXPLORING THE DYNAMICS OF CHANGE: DRIVER
MAPPING WORKSHOP
 DRIVER MAPPING is used to
identify the
political, economic, societal,
technological,
legislative and environmental
drivers
(PESTLE) shaping the future
policy
environment

PESTLE, STEEP,
PESTO, STEEPL, VSTEEP
EXPLORING THE DYNAMICS OF CHANGE: DRIVER
MAPPING WORKSHOP
 BACKCASTING is an effective
way of
connecting a given future to the
present and
identifying what needs to be done to
deliver it.

future area or strategic endeavour

To identify which To distinguish between
drivers are most certain and uncertain
important for the outcomes resulting from the
To identify drivers shaping the future of the policy action of drivers

BACKCASTING
 http://www.naturalstep.ca/sites/default/files/

page_sustainability_backcasting2.jpg

BACKCASTING
https://www.obayashi.co.jp/en/sustainability/upload/img/img_vision-
01_add.png
 What is your preferred
future for Ilocos Sur?
EXPLORING THE DYNAMICS OF IDENTIFY DRIVERS
MAKE A
CHANGE: DRIVER MAPPING
WORKSHOP
IDENTIFY YOUR FOCAL LOCAL THAT WILL AFFECT YOUR FOCAL SCENARIO OF YOUR PREFERRED
CONCERN LOCAL CONCERN FUTURE
 REMEMBER THE 5Rs.

RETHINK. REFRAME. RETOOL.

RESKILL.REENERGIZE.
IMAGINATION IS
THE CURRENCY
OF THE FUTURE
 MAIN MESSAGES
SKILL SETS AND COMPETENCIES REQUIRED
TO BE FUTURES READY

1. Adaptability/flexibility 7. Creating new value.

2. Problem sensitivity
8. Balancing or reconciling competing,
3. Critical thinking contradictory, or incompatible demands and
dilemmas, in a world of complex
4. Systems analysis
interdependency.
5. Interpreting the meaning of information to
others. 9. Taking responsibility
6. Influencing others.
SKILLS NEEDED TO BE AN ANTICIPATOR LEADER
 1.THE FUTURIST SKILL
asks questions like: What is the nature of something?
How does it work
apart from its specific
form? What
are its properties as a
medium?

2.THE STRATEGIST
SKILL
see possibilities from trends, weaves separate
information into new combinations

3. THE INTEGRATOR SKILL

engages the organization in dialogue and
mutual discovery of possibilities
SKILLS NEEDED TO BE AN ANTICIPATOR LEADER

Savage & Sales (2008) continue that one may improve the
present state of his 2.Whole
anticipatory skills. systems
thinking
This can be
accomplished by
doing the following
regularly:
1.Sensing the
future

3.Reframing

Mindsets and Competencies needed to push for Sustainable

Development (United Nations 2020)
 MAIN MESSAGES
SKILL SETS AND COMPETENCIES REQUIRED
TO BE FUTURES READY
Foresight
Futures Thinking Ethical
Phronetic and
Leadership Strategic
Futurist
Management
www.philfutures.net www.gspdm.com lizanpcalina@gmail.com 0917.543.4511
www.pspaconference.com
Hiraya Manawari!!!