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CONTENTS

Foreword.. ................................. xi

Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii

Suggested d u r a t i o n of t h e l e c t u r e course . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xv

PART 1 - BASIC CONCEPTS AND TERMINOLOGY OF POLITICAL ECONOMY

Chapter

1 POLITICAL ECOIJONY: THE SCIENCE 03' WEALTH .............. 5

1.1 Human s o c i e t i e s . The n a t i o n , t h e S t a t e . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
?-.2 Plan a n d h i s n e e d s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.3 P r o p e r t y or w e a l t h . Natural r e s o u r c e s ............ 6
1.4 P o l i t i c a l economy, t h e s c i e n c e o f w e a l t h . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1.5 P o l i t i c a l economy, t h e s c i e n c e o f c h o i c e . . . . . . . . . . . 7

11 BASIC CONCEPTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2.1 Needs, u s e f u l n e s s , s c a r c i t y . Goods a n d s e r v i c e s ....... 9
2.2 Usage a n d e x c h a n g e v a l u e s . C u r r e n c y . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
2.3 Prices. The l a w o f s u p p l y a n d demand ............. 10
2.4 Production, energy, p r o d u c t i v i t y ............... 10
2.5 P r o c e s s o f c o n s u m p t i o n , consumer a n d p r o d u c e r goods . . . . . . 11
2.6 Liquid and f i x e d c a p i t a l . P r i m a r y material . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.7 Investment .......................... 12
2.8 Production f a c t o r s . Enterprise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
2.9 Applioations t o Meteorological Services . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

111 GLOBAL CGNCEPTS ........................... 14

5.1 Added v a l u e .......................... 14
3.2 Domestic p r o d u c t i o n . Gross C o m e s t i c P r o d u c t (GDP) . . . . . . 14
3.3 G r o s s N a t i o n a l P r o d u c t (GNP) ................. 14
3.4 N e t N a t i o n a l P r o d u c t (NNP) a n d t h e Net N a t i o n a l Income ("1) . i5
3.5 Uses of n e t n a t i o n a l p r o d u c t ................. 15
3.6 S t a n d a r d of l i v i n g a n d t h e GiI? p e r h e a d o f p o p u l a t i o n ..... 15
3.7 I n t e r n a t i o n a l comparisons on a g l o b a l scale .......... 16
3.8 M e t e o r o l o g y a n d t h e g r o w t h o f GNP ................ 16
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.iv .

Chapter

IV BASIC IDEAS OF DEMOGRAPHY ......................

4.1 The economic importance of population . ......
Demography
4.2 Birth rate. death rate and growth rate ............
4.3 Fertility and infant mortality rates. Life expectation . . . .
4.4 Movement of population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.5 Formulae for the calculation of population growth. Geometric
and exponential forms .................... 18
4.6 Calculation of growth on an economic scale per head of
population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
4.7 Age pyramids. Active population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
4.8 Spatial distribution of population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
4.9 Meteorology and demography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

v ECONOMIC SYSTEMS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . 22
5.1 Definition of an economic system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
5.2 Developed and developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
5.3 Principal economic systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
5.4 Other economic systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
5.5 Capitalism. collectivism and the Third World . . . . . . . . . 23
5.6 Economic systems and development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
5.7 The r o l e of the State in the national economy ........ 24
5.8 Economic systems and the defence of meteorology ........ 25

VI PRODUCTION SECTORS AND THEIR STRUCTUSES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

6.1 Classical sectors: primary. secondary and tertiary . . . . . . 26
6.2 The quaternary sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
6.3 Relationship between meteorology and the four economic sectors 27

VI1 PUBLICFINANCE ........................... 28

7.1 Definitions. Taxation and budget . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
7.2 The role of public expenditure in the cconomy ........ 20
7.3 The position in developing countries ............. 29
7.4 Meteorology and public expenditure .............. 29

VI11 INTERNATIONAL EXCHANGE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

8.1 Balance of payments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
8.2 Principles of international exchange . . . . . . . . . . . . .
8.3 Deterioration of terms of exchange and development aid ....
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Chapter

IX GROWTH OF GNP AND DEVELOPMENT ....................

9.1 Conjuncture. growth and development . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9.2 Inflation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9.3 Conditions or factors affecting growth and development . . e e

9.4 Development planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

X THE ROLE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY IN GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT . . .a 35

10.1 Definitions. Science and technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
10.2 The role of science and technology in the economy . . . .. 35
10.3 Fiindamental and applied research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
10.4 State scientific policy. The case of developing countries . . 36
10.5 Meteorology and scientific policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
QUESTIONS AND EXFIRCISES ...................... 37

PART 11- SOCIO-ECONOM'IC FACTS OF THE WORLD

I ..............
DIVISION OF TñE WORLD INTO RICH BND POOR 41
1.1 Historical background ..................... 41
1.2 Great discoveries and inventions ............... 41
1.3 Successive smges in economic growth ............. 43
1.4 Criteria for division between the developed and under-developed
nations ........................... 44
1.5 Grouping o f countries into WMO Begions . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
1.6 Grouping according to geographical location . . . . . . . . . . 45
1.7 Basic statistical data by WMO Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
1.8 Geographical distribution of the under-developed countries . . 47

11 DEMOGRAPHIC EVOLUTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
2.1 The demographic explosion. a recent phenomenon . . . . . . . . 48
2.2 Demographic projection 1970-2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
2.3 Birth rate. mortality rate. population increase 1965-2000 ... 49
2.4 Age pyramids. Youthfulness of the population in under-
developed regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
2.5 Progress o f urbanization anc? exodus from rural areas over the
period 1950-2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52

111 WORLD AGRICULTURE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54

3.1 Areas of cultivated or potentially cultivable land . . . . . . 54
3.2 The contribution of agriculture to the GNP . . . . . . . . . . 57
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Chapter page
111 3.3 ....
Contribution of agriculture among the active population 57
3.4 Types of sgriculture ..................... 59
3.5 Evolution of agricultura1 production from 1967-1971 ...... 60
3.6 Cereal crops ......................... 62
3.7 The green revolution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64

IV THE PROBLEM OF HUNGER ........................ 65

4.1 Food and nutrition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
4.2 Under-nourishment and malnutrition in the developing world .. 67
4.3 Growth of GNP and eating habits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
4.4 Food requirements over the period 1970-2000 . . . . . . . . . . 67

V .............................
WORLD WA'l'ER 70
5.1 Increase in water requiremente . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
5.2 Irrigation and future needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70

VI WORLD ENERGY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
6.1 Revision of energy units and definitions . . . . . . . . . . . 73
6.2 Energy and development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
6.3 Energy policy in the undeveloped countries . . . . . . . . . . 76
6.4 Hydroelectric energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
6.5 Future energy needs. The energy crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . 78

VI1 HEALTH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
7.1 Health. hunger and sickness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
7.2 Climate and sickness. Biometeorology . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79

VI11 GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80

8.1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
8.2 Exponential growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
8.5 Limiting factors to growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
8.4 Growth of GNP/head from 1970-2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82

QUESTIONS AND EXERCISES ....................... 83

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PART 111 .THE ROLE OF METEOROLOGY IN DEVELOPMENT

Chapter page
1 BASIC DISTINCTIONS ......................... 87
1.1 Dual concept anomalies .................... 87
1.2 Meteorological forecasting and climatology . . . . . . . . . . 87
1.5 Creative and destructive meteorological forces ........ 87
1.4 Rich and poor countries ................... 88
1.5 Real and potential role of meteorology . . . . . . . . . . . . 88

11 GENERAL ASPECTS OF THE ROLE OF METEOROLOGY ............ * 89

2.1 Cutting losses and increasing gains . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
2.2 Climatology .a means of gain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
2.3 Meteorological forecasting .a means to avoid losses . . . . . 90
2.4 The industrialized countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
2.5 Developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
2.6 The real and potential roles of meteorology . . . . . . . . . 91.
2.7 Summa$y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
2.8 Users of meteorological services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . * 93
2.9 Social and economic impact of meteorological catastrophies . * 93
2.10 Sectorial classification of the applications of meteorology . 95

111 METEOROLOGY AND AGRICULTüRAL RESOURCES ............... 96

3.1 Agrometeorology: definition and importance ......... 96
5.2 Agroclimatological problems related to agricultura1
production .......................... 97
3.3 Agrometeorological problems (weather forecasting) related to
agricultura1 production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
3.4 Sensitivity of agriculture t o weather fluctuations. Droughts . 98
3.5 Efficiency of agrometeorological activities . . . . . . . . . 99

IV METEOROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES .................. 103

4.1 Rydrometeorology: definition and importance . . . . . . . . . 103
4.2 Hydroclimatic problems (inventories) . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
4.3 Bydrometeorological problems (forecasting) . . . . . . . . . . 105
4.4 Efficiency of hydrometeorological activities . . . . . . . . . 106

v METEOROLOGY AND ENEXGY RESOTJRCES ................... 107

5.1 Energy of meteorological origin and development ....... 107
5.2 Future role of meteorology in terms of natural resources . . . lo7
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Chapter -.ge
VI METEOROLOGY AND INDUSTRY ...................... 111
6.1 Industrial production .................... 111
6.2 Urban development. architecture. construction and public
works . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111

VI1 METEOROLOGY AND TRANSPORT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113

7.1 Air transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
7.2 Marine transport and the fishing industry . . . . . . . . . . 113
7.3 Road and inland waterway transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113

VI11 METEOROLOGY AND OTHER SERVICES ................... 114

IX METEOROLOGY AND HUMBN RESOURCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115

X METEOROLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116

10.1 The. irnportance of the problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116
10.2 Interactions between man and his environment . . . . . . . . . 116

XI CONTRIBUTION OF METEOROLOGICAL ACTIVITIES TO GNP . . . . . . . . . . 120

11.1 Basic distinctions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120
11.2 Ekisting data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
11.3 Methods for the estimation of the sectorial importance of
meteorology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
11.4 Tropical cyclones and the GNP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
11-.5 Pollution. climatic variations and the GNP . . . . . . . . . . 126
QUESTIONS AND EXERCISES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127

PART IV .ORGANIZATION OF METEOROLOGICAL ACTIVITIES

1 STRUCTURE OF METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES ................ 133
1.1 .........
Thirteen principles for an efficient Service 133
1.2 ..........
Fourteenth principlei an adequate budget 134

11 SIZE OF METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES .................. 135

2.1 Efficiency of a Meteorol.ogica1 Service as a development
engine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
2.2 Optimal budget of a Meteorological Service .......... 137
2.3 ....
Added cost of meteorology in the developing countries 139
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111 CO-ORDINATION OF METEOROLOGICAL ACTIVITIES ............. 141
3.1 Science and technology. The place of meteorology . . . . . . 141
3.2 Problems of co-ordination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
3.3 Evolution o f budget . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
3.4 Long term expansion o f a Meteorological Service . . . . . . . 142
3.5 ..........
National development plans and meteorology 144

QUESTIONS AND EXERCISES ...................... 145

PART V . WORLD CO-OPERATION IN METEOROLOGY

1 THE UNITED NATIONS SYSTEM ..................... 149

1.1 The United Nations Organization and the Economic and Social
Council (ECOSOC) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
1.2 The specialixed agencies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151

11 THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION ............... 152

2.1 Origin and creation of WMO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
2.2 WMO Convention and structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
2.3 WMO Secretariat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156
2.4 WMO programmes and structure of the Secretariat . . . . . . . 156
2.5 Technical Co-operation Department . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157

111 DEVELOPMENT AID .......................... 158

3.1 Motives behind aid ...................... 158
3.2 Organization o f aid ..................... 158
3.3 Magnitude of aid ....................... 159

IV AID TO METEOROLOGY ......................... 160

4.1 Justification for assistance to meteorology ......... 160
4.2 Assistance provided by WMO through UNDP . . . . . . . . . . . 160
4.3 The WMO Voluntary Assistance Programme (VAP) ......... 162
4.4 Assistance available through the WMO regular budget . . . . . 163
4.5 Overall assistance provided by WMO .............. 163

v WMO AND THE UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT DECADES ........... 165

5.1 Decades and development structure .............. 165
5.2 .
Science and technology during the Second Development Decade 165
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Chapter -@;e

v 5.3 WMO co-operation in the Second Development Decade ...... 166

5.4 Development or uorid bankruptcy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
QUESTIONS AND EXERCISES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168

ANNEXES 1 TO VI1 .BASIC SOCIO-ECONOMIC DATA FOR COUNTRIES IN WMO

REGIONAL ASSOCIATIONS 1 TO VI ................... 169

BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................ 179

LIST OF TABLES ........................... 185

LIST OF FIGURES .......................... 185

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