UPPER ANDROSCOGGIN VALLEY AREA PROFILE: BERLIN, GORHAM, MILAN, RANDOLPH, SHELBURNE

UPDATED TO REFLECT 2000 DATA

PRESENTED BY: THE FAMILY RESOURCE CENTER @ GORHAM THE ANDROSCOGGIN VALLEY COMMUNITY PARTNERS THE ANDROSCOGGIN VALLEY ECONOMIC RECOVERY CORP.

Upper Androscoggin Valley CommunitiesBerlin, Gorham, Milan Randolph and Shelburne

The towns of Gorham, Milan, Randolph and Shelburne and the City of Berlin that make up the Upper Androscoggin Valley are located in Coos County. Coos, the northern-most New Hampshire county, has the largest land area of all NH counties (1800 square miles), the smallest population (33,511) and the lowest per capita income ($28, 884 per person), according to 2000 census data. Berlin, with a population of just over 10,000-down from 30,000 in the 1950s, is the only city in the county. The Valley has a rich history of multi-generational ethnic families working in the mills and forests. The regions heritage, culture and identity are deeply rooted in stories of the forests, the Androscoggin River and the business of paper-making. Nevertheless, the actual numbers of those employed by the mills has been declining steadily since the 1950s. In May 2006 the pulp mill in Berlin owned by Fraser Papers closed permanently, leaving only a small paper operation still operating.

Coos County, New Hampshire

Organizations Involved in Creating this Profile

The Family Resource Center @ Gorham The Family Resource Center @ Gorham is a private non-profit corporation that was established in April 1997. The Center is designed to bring a variety of health and human service programs together to work collaboratively with each other and the community. The Family Resource Center provided services, either directly or indirectly, to over 3,000 individuals in the Androscoggin Valley area in 2005 and it has taken a leadership role in community development activities since the fall of 2001 when the Berlin and Gorham mills declared bankruptcy, before being purchased by Fraser Papers in 2002. The Center operates with a community board of directors, a staff of 32 and a broad range of volunteers. The funding comes from a mix of state, federal and private foundation sources. Androscoggin Valley Community Partners The Androscoggin Valley Community Partners (AVCP) was formed from a merger of the Concerned Community Providers and the Berlin Area Health Consortium. The Concerned Community Providers (CCP) was created as a vehicle for communication and shared action among social service providers when the mills closed in 2001. When the mills reopened, the members of CCP shifted their focus to addressing the root causes of social issues in the region. CCP became a Task Force of the Androscoggin Valley Economic Development Corporation and helped to connect economic issues with health and social concerns. The Berlin Area Health Consortium (BAHC) was formed in the late 90s by a consortium of healthcare providers to provide training, create technology for information sharing and build a unified voice for healthcare issues in the North Country These two groups merged in December 2005 and created a new shared mission which states The Androscoggin Valley Community Partners will work to foster positive health and social outcomes to create thriving and vibrant communities in the region. Androscoggin Valley Economic Recovery Corporation (AVER) The Androscoggin Valley Economic Recovery Corporation (AVER) was incorporated in October 2001 by area business people to address the closure of the mills and the clear need for economic diversification in the Androscoggin Valley. When Fraser Papers purchased the mills in 2002, AVER broadened the concept of economic development to include community development for the Androscoggin Valley region. To address this broader, regional agenda, AVER formed 5 community task forces: education, economic development, tourism, health and human services and technology. AVERs mission is : To promote and encourage the development of business and economic development activities, the creation and preservation of employment opportunities and the protection of the physical environment and the character of the communities in the region comprising the Androscoggin Valley. AVER has 19 members on its Board of Directors from all towns in the region. The board is committed to creating a long term vision for change and new economic sustainability in the Valley.

Acknowledgements
The research, writing and production of the Upper Androscoggin Area Profile were made possible with support from Janes Trust. Project oversight was provided by Catherine McDowell, Executive Director of the Family Resource Center at Gorham, The Carsey Institute of the University of New Hampshire, members of the Androscoggin Valley Economic Recovery Corporation (AVER) and members of the Androscoggin Valley Community Providers (AVCP). The writing and data analysis in this profile were done by Sarah Savage, a Ph.D. student in Sociology at the University of New Hampshire working for the Carsey Institute. Sally Ward, Professor of Sociology at UNH, provided insightful guidance and supervision for this project and Wendy Walsh, a Research Assistant Professor at UNH and author of the original Upper Androscoggin Valley Area Profile, also contributed useful feedback during the process. John Bonds from the NH Department of Health and Human Services reviewed the profile and provided valuable information and comments.

June 2006

Table of Contents
Introduction Profile Highlights Social Indicators
Population by Town Population by Age Group Population Dependency Number of families Single Headed Households Number of Workers in Family Working Mothers 6 7 7 8 8 9 10-11 12 13 14 15 16 16 17 18 19 20 21 22-23 24 25 26 27-29 30-31 32 33 33 34 35 36 37 38-39 40 41 42 43 44

Community Indicators
Crime rate Domestic Violence and Child Abuse Idle Teens High Risk Health Behaviors At Risk Births Teenage Mothers Health care Access Housing Property Values Housing Affordability School Assessment Education levels Post High School Education

Economic Indicators
Labor Force Participation Unemployment Rate Full and Part-time Work Seasonal Workers Employment Changes Average Weekly Wages Per Capita Income Median Family Income Poverty Rates Elderly Living in Poverty

References

Introduction
Why write a community profile?
The following report is an update of the Upper Androscoggin Valley Area Profile that was originally produced in 1998. The 1998 Profile examined social, economic, community, and environmental indicators for the five towns (Berlin, Gorham, Milan Randolph and Shelburne) for the period between 1980 and 1990.This new version of the profile compares, wherever possible, the original data to data from the period between 1990 and 2000. It also examines new indicators for Population Dependency, Health Care Access and Housing, which were not available at the printing of the original Profile. The environmental indicators in the original have been dropped because there was no good source for comparative data. The 1998 Profile provided a snapshot of what the towns in the Androscoggin Valley looked like from 1980 to 1990. The updated Profile compares the 1990- 2000 data with the 1980-1990 data so that we can track changes and examine the trends are influencing the social and economic direction of our communities. The declining prospects for the future of the pulp and paper industry in the US, evidenced locally by the closure of the Fraser Papers pulp mill in Berlin in 2006, and the changing demographics of the Valley suggest that it is a good time to look closely at these trends as we design community and economic development strategies for the future of the Androscoggin Valley region. The Androscoggin Valley Economic Recovery Corporation (AVER) and The Androscoggin Valley Community Partners (AVCP) have joined the Family Resource Center in commissioning in this new report so that community leaders and organizations can track progress and changes in these key indicators of community health. The updated profile is designed to help the community understand the forces affecting the communities of the Androscoggin Valley. It is our hope that leaders will use the data in this report to design realistic and strategic initiatives that will: Promote and encourage new business and economic development appropriate for the region, Create and preserve employment opportunities, Support education and training programs that build new skills, connect with industry and business needs and retain/attract younger workers, Develop social, health and personal finance programs that support stability, quality of life and success for area children, youth and families, Protect the physical environment, the cultural heritage and the unique character of the communities in the region.

The social and economic platform of he Androscoggin Valley, and indeed all of rural America is changing. Understanding the realities that define the Androscoggin Valley region will offer a clear picture of the strengths and challenges that exist. We need a realistic planning process to create a sustainable future for those who will inherit this region from us.

Profile Highlights
The increase in New Hampshires overall population between 1990 and 2000 was more modest than the prior decade. Milan was the only town within the five town area that experienced a positive percent change in population between 1990 and 2000, the other four towns experienced negative percent changes. The percentage of elderly population in the five town area is consistently larger than in the state as a whole. Conversely, in 2000, a smaller percentage of the population consisted of children across the five towns. Households defined as families without children decreased between 1980 and 2000, particularly in Berlin and Gorham, whereas the percentage of households defined as non-family has increased over the two decades. The family structure changed more dramatically in the five town area between 1980 and 2000 than in Coos and the state as a whole. The percentage of families with children headed by married couples was larger in the five town area in 1980, relative to Coos and the state, and the percentage headed by single females was smaller. By 2000, this trend had reversed. In 2000, the five town area had a lower percentage headed by married couples and a higher percentage headed by single females, relative to Coos and the state. The percentage of idle teens has decreased substantially between 1990 and 2000. The teen birth rate remained consistent in the late nineties and then demonstrated a noticeable decrease between 2001 and 2003 across Coos County. In 1990 and 2000, high school graduate was the most common education level attained in the five town area, Coos, and the state. Weekly wages and income (median family and per capita) were consistently lower in Coos than in the state throughout the nineties, and the gap appears to widen in the later part of the decade. The percentage of full-time workers fluctuated inconsistently from 1980 to 2000 across the five towns, county, and state, whereas the percentage of part-time workers increased consistently. The percentage of people living below poverty decreased consistently between 1980 and 2000, in all towns except Berlin, which shows a consistent increase. Coos and the North Country, more generally, stand out as having higher percentages of people without health insurance in 1999 and 2000 relative to the rest of the state.

SOCIAL INDICATORS
Numbers of people in a community, age groupings and family structure have implications for issues such as workforce availability, construction/consolidation of schools, health care services and day care needs. It is important to understand the social indicators of the region in order to identify what resources, structures and economic supports will be needed in the future. Population Change by Town Why is this important? Migration in or out of a community is one indicator of an areas ability to offer an attractive quality of life and economic opportunities for individuals and families. It is important to identify areas of growth or decline in the population because services and resources can be developed to respond to a changing population. How are we doing? Demographers projections that towns in the Androscoggin Valley would continue to decrease in size by 2000 were accurate, however, for each town and Coos County as a whole, the actual declines were larger than estimated. In most cases this may be a function of the smaller populations, which translates into larger percentage changes. For instance, Shelburnes population decreased from 437 in 1990 to 378 in 2000. A decrease of 59 people is not a lot, however, in a small town like Shelburne it translates into a 14% decrease in total population. All towns, except Milan, in the five town area experienced population declines from 1990 to 2000. For Berlin and Gorham this was a continuation of the population declines that began in the 1980s.
Percent Change in Population
Shelburne Randolph Milan

Area

Gorham Berlin Coos County New Hampshire -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

Percent
1980 to 1990 Estimated 1990 to 2000 Actual 1990 to 2000

Data Source: 1990 and 2000 U.S. Census, NH Office of State Planning, Factbook on NHs Counties and their Cities and Towns.

Population by Age Group

Why is this important? Population data can be used to make decisions about services which may be needed to support the growth of certain age groups, such as more child care or school services for a growing population of children or healthcare services for an increasing number of elderly. Changes in the age distribution also impact the size of the labor force. According to a report by PolEcon Research on fiscal and demographic trends in New Hampshire, The 35-54 year old age group represents the most productive worker age group (Gottlob, 2006). How are we doing? In 2000, the five town area had a larger percentage of productive workers ages 35 to 54 than the state as a whole. However, the shrinking percentage of youth (ages 16-19) and younger workforce (ages 20 to 34) from 1990 to 2000, combined with the areas growing elderly population suggest that there will be fewer workers in the most productive age group for Androscoggin Valley in the future.
New Hampshire's Population by Age Group, 1990

Area's Population by Age Group, 1990

55 plus 19%

0 to 4 8%

5 to 15 15% 16 to 19 6%

55 plus 25%

0 to 4 7%

5 to 15 16% 16 to 19 4%

35 to 54 26% 20 to 34 26%

35 to 54 28%

20 to 34 20%

New Hampshire's Population by Age Group, 2000

Area's Population by Age Group, 2000

55 plus 21%

0 to 4 6%

5 to 15 16% 16 to 19 6%

55 plus 28%

0 to 4 4% 5 to 15 14% 16 to 19 5% 20 to 34 13%

35 to 54 32%

20 to 34 19%

35 to 54 36%

Population by Dependency
Why is this important? Youth and the elderly population depend partly on the active workforce for support. A high dependency ratio means that the communitys dependent residents outnumber the workforce that supports them. When this happens it places a higher burden on the workforce to provide the necessary community supports and resources How are we doing? The dependency ratio was the highest in Berlin in both 1990 and 2000. In the five town area, Berlin and Gorham have experienced increases in their ratio of dependent persons to active working age persons.

Dependency Ratio* of Youths and Elderly to the Working Age Population

70 60 Dependency Ratio 50 40 30 20 10 0

*Dependency ratio = Number of population under age 15 plus number age 65 and over divided by the number of population ages 15 to 64 (Gottlob, 2006).

ph Sh el bu rn e Co os Co un Ne ty w Ha m ps hi re Un ite d St at es
1990 2000

Be rli n

G or ha m

i la n M

Ra nd ol

10

The five town area, the county and the state all demonstrate a steadily increasing trend in the growth of the aging population and a decline in the population of children.
Percentage of Population who are Children
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

Percent

ph Sh el bu rn e

Be rli n

or ha m

ila n

Ra nd ol

1980

1990

2000

The noticeable decline in the percentage of working age adults in Berlin from 1990 to 2000 is being accompanied by an increase in the elderly population.
Percentage of Population who are Working Age Adults
64 Percent 60 56 52 48
ph Sh el bu rn e Be rli n ila n G or ha m Ra nd ol Co un ty M NH

1980

1990

2000

Percentage of Population who are Elderly

25 20 Percent 15 10 5 0

Be rli n

ph

Sh el bu rn e

Co os

Co os

Co un ty

or ha m

ila n

Ra nd ol

1980

1990

2000

Co os

Co un ty

11

NH

NH

Number of Families
Why is this important? Knowing how many families live in particular towns over time is one indicator of community growth. Understanding who is moving in or out of a community has implications for the types of resources might be needed. Communities with young families may need larger schools, recreation departments or family support services, while communities with an elderly population may need more geriatric services and housing for the elderly. How are we doing? Not surprisingly, the decline in the proportion of the population of children from 1990 to 2000 was accompanied by a decrease in the percentage of households defined as families with children for this same decade. In 2000, this decrease was matched with an increase in the percentage of households defined as families without children. There was also a steady increase in the percentage of non-family households which are defined as a householder living aloneor where the householder shares the home exclusively with people to whom he/she is not related (U.S. Census)]. Randolph, which experienced a decrease in the percentage of non-family households, was the one exception in the region.
Households Defined as Families with Children
50 40 Percent 30 20 10 0
ph Sh el bu rn e Be rli n Co os i la n G or ha m Ra nd ol M NH
C oo s N H

1980

1990

2000

Households Defined as Nonfamily

40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

Percent

ph Ra nd ol
1980

1990

S
2000

Data Source: 1980, 1990, and 2000 U.S. Census. 12

he lb ur ne

Be rli n

G or ha m

M ila n

Single Headed Households

Why is this important? Single headed households tend to have fewer financial and social resources than two-parent households and the children are at increased risk of living in poverty. How are we doing? In the five town area, the family structure continued to shift in 1990-200 from households with children headed by married couples and to an increasing percentage of households headed by single persons. Types of Households Defined as Families with Children in the Five-Town Area
1980
1.3% 11.4%
21.9%

1990

2000

2.9%

17.4%

8.8%

87.3%

79.7%
Male head of household Female head of household Married couples

69.3%

Types of Households Defined as Families with Children in Coos County

1980

1990

2000

2% 12%

4%

16%

10% 20%

86%

80%

70%

Types of Households Defined as Families with Children in New Hampshire

1990

1980

2000

3% 13%

4%

13%

7% 17%

84%

83%

76%

13

Number of Workers in Families

Why is this important? The number of workers in families affects the social, economic, and personal aspects of family life. When families have more than one worker, they must find ways to juggle time between work and family. Choice of jobs may be limited by the other partners work schedule, availability of quality childcare, and supervision of teens. How are we doing? With the exception of Berlin, there is an increasing trend in families with two or more workers from 1980 through 2000. This trend may indicate increasing financial pressures that requires two workers to meet the financial needs of the family. The fact that the increase in the percentage of families with multiple workers in Berlin is so slight from decade to decade may indicate a stable population of single headed households.

Percentage of Families with Two or More Workers

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
R an do lp h G or ha m rn e B er lin M ila n C oo s S he lb u N H

Percent

1980

1990

2000

14

Working Mothers
Why is this important? An increase in working mothers could mean a need for increased childcare services, after school programs and support systems for families. How are we doing? With few exceptions, there is an increasing trend from 1990 to 2000 of mothers with children participating in the labor force. This is not surprising given the rise of single female headed households as well as the need for dual earners to make ends meet. The most notable increase in the percentage of mothers with children under age 6 who work was in Gorham.
Percentage of Mothers with Child Under 6 Years Who Work
100 80 Percent 60 40 20 0

ph

Sh el bu rn e

Be rli n

G or ha m

Co os

ila n

1980

Ra nd ol

1990

2000

There was a less steady increase in the percentage of mothers with older children who worked across the decades.
Percentage of Mothers with Child 6 to 17 Years Who Work
100 80 Percent 60 40 20 0

ph

Sh el bu rn e

Be rli n

G or ha m

Co os

ila n

1980

Ra nd ol

1990

2000

15

NH

NH

COMMUNITY INDICATORS
Safety, health and education all contribute to a communitys success. Indicators describing rates for crime and violence, teenage pregnancy, access to health care, safety and availability of housing stock and educational levels have implications for the overall well-being and achievement of a community and its members. These indicators also significantly influence and support a communitys economic growth. In order to make progress, a community must recognize and actively address the role that these factors play in economic and community development.

Crime Rate
Why is this important? Crime rate is one measure of community safety. When there is a low crime rate, residents have a feeling of security in their community, and it often indicates a strong sense of community respect and pride. The crime rate includes crimes like homicide, rape, assault, burglary, larceny, and theft. The total number of occurrences divided by the population determines the rate. How are we doing? There has been a consistently decreasing trend in the crime rate per one-thousand inhabitants at the county, state, and national level between 1990 and 1999. Coos County shows evidence of a consistently lower crime rate than the state and nation over time.
Crime Rate per 1,000 Population
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1991 Coos 1992 1993 1994 1995 1999

New Hampshire

United States

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics. URL: http://bjsdata.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonline.

16

Domestic Violence and Child Abuse

Why is this important? Tracking reported cases of domestic violence has implications for where crisis and support services for victims and families. It is difficult to track the true number of individuals involved with domestic violence because only those who actually contact crisis centers are counted as victims. Child abuse and neglect figures include only those children who have been reported to DCYF. Since not all children at-risk are reported, we do not have an accurate count of all children who are truly at-risk. How are we doing? Despite the steady increase in services to victims of domestic violence between 1990 and 1996, this trend seems to be decreasing in more recent years. However, it should be noted that receipt of services is not representative of the total number of domestic violence cases as indicated above.
Number of Domestic Violence Victims Statewide who Received Services
10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 2003 2004

In 2004, a higher percentage of physical and sexual child abuse cases were reported in Coos than in the state as a whole. Neglect, which includes situations such as consistent lack of adequate hygiene and nutrition, lack of appropriate and safe supervision and failure to provide health care, among others, represented the majority of cases reported in Coos and the state in 2004.
Child Abuse Assessm ents by Type of Abuse, 2004 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Neglect Physical Coos NH Sexual

17

Idle Teens
Why is this important? Teens between the ages of 16 and 19 who are not in school or working are considered idle teens. Teens that are not participating in school or work often experience a higher rate of crime, substance abuse and unwanted pregnancies. How are we doing? Since 1990, according to Kids Count data, the percent of idle teens in the five town area has clearly decreased. The percentage of teens enrolled in school has increased across the five towns as well as at county and state levels between 1990 and 2000. The increase appears most dramatic in the smaller towns but this is mostly due to the small size of the population aged 16 to 19 in these areas. In the largest town, Berlin, the percentage increase from 1990 to 2000 of teens enrolled in school was quite large.
Teens aged 16 to 19 1990 572 136 72 13 27 1819 62619 Number (percent) not in school nor employed 1990 2000 106 (19%) 52 (10%) 18 (13) 13 (9) 6 (8) 0 0 0 0 0 251 (14) 146 (8) 4674 (7) 3333 (5) Number (percent) enrolled in school 1990 2000 413 (72%) 453 (85%) 97 (71) 116 (76) 56 (78) 55 (92) 8 (62) 23 (100) 23 (85) 28 (100) 1354 (74) 1410 (82) 49281 (79) 56712 (84)

Area Berlin Gorham Milan Randolph Shelburne Coos NH

2000 536 152 60 23 28 1721 67668

Percentage of Idle Teens, 1990 and 2000

20 16 12 8 4 0

Percent

ol ph

or ha

rn e

ila

os

lin

Be r

nd

lb u

Sh e

Ra

1990

2000

Source: Kids Count New Hampshire.

18

Ne

Ha

ps h

Co

ir e

High Risk Health Behaviors Teens

Why is this important? Unhealthy behaviors and risk factors decrease productivity and life expectancy for individuals in the community. Community well being improves when teens are healthy, active and productive members of society. It is important to identify unhealthy behaviors and risk factors for teens so that communities can develop prevention and support programs that emphasize positive youth development and primary prevention strategies. How are we doing? Students surveyed in both Berlin and Gorham self-reported higher rates of cigarette smoking, alcohol, and marijuana use than statewide reports.
Percent of High School Students (Grades 9-12) Surveyed* Who Smoke Tobacco (monthly or more)
45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Berlin Males Gorham Females Total NH

Percent of High School Students (Grades 9-12) Surveyed* Who Use Alcohol or Marijuana 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Berlin Gorham NH Marijuana (monthly or more)

Alcohol (once or more per w eek)

*92% of students, grades 7-12, from the Berlin School District in 2000 and the Gorham School District in 2001 were surveyed as part of a Teen Assessment Project, conducted by the Coos County UNH Cooperative Extension and the Berlin/Gorham Community Youth Coalition.

Source: UNH Cooperative Extension.

19

At Risk Births
Why is this important? Research indicates that infant health at birth can be significantly impacted by factors such as smoking during pregnancy and the mothers education, age, marital status and income level. Children born with these risk factors are more likely to read below grade level and drop out of school early. How are we doing? Mothers in Coos County experience higher rates of risk factors influencing infant health than mothers in the state as a whole. The risk factor of poverty for mothers in Coos is especially high. Over one-third of mothers in Coos are on Medicaid versus just over 20% at the state-level.

Indicators of Infant Health (Age<1): 1993-1997

35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Maternal Smoking Mother's Mother's Age Education < < 20 12 yrs Coos NH Mother Unmarried Medicaid Payment

Source: New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services.

20

Teenage Mothers
Why is this important? Teenage pregnancy poses a risk to both mother and child. A teen mother faces above average risks in complications in pregnancy. Nationally, 7 out of 10 teen mothers drop out of high school. Children born to teens are more likely to experience poor health, poverty and school failure. How are we doing? The teen birth rate in Coos County varies from year to year, probably because of the small numbers involved, while the teen birth rate at the state level has declined steadily. Except for 1998, the teen birth rate in Coos is consistently higher than the state rate.
Teen Birth Rate per 1,000 Females Age 15-17
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1998 1999 2000 Coos 2001 New Hampshire 2002 2003

Source: New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services Health Statistics and Data Management.

21

Health Care Access

Why is this important? Access to affordable health care is critical to the productivity of a community. As health care costs continue to rise and full-time jobs offering health insurance decline in the five town area (see the Economic Indicators section), fewer community members will have access to affordable health care. Individuals who delay routine preventative health care visits or stop taking necessary medications because they do not have health insurance often end up going to the emergency room or needing hospitalization which puts the individual at higher risk and increases the cost of care for the community as a whole. How are we doing? Fewer individuals are covered by health insurance in Coos County than the state as a whole. Coos County also has a lower percentage of physicians per population than the state.
Percent of Individuals Uninsured, 2000
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Coos All ages 18 and under NH

From 1996 to 2002, Coos has a consistently lower rate of physicians per 1,000 residents than the state level, although this gap appears to have narrowed somewhat in 2002.
Physicians: Rate per 1,000 Population
2.5

2 1.5

1 0.5

0 1996 1997 1998 Coos 1999 2000 2001 2002

New Hampshire

Source: 1997-1998, 1999, 2000, 2001-2002, 2003-2004: American Medical Association, Physician Characteristics and Distribution in the US.

22

NH Department of Health and Human Services examined health insurance coverage by region in 1999. Approximately 9% of New Hampshire residents were uninsured The North Country region, which includes Coos County had the highest rate of uninsured in the state. The survey results indicated that approximately 73% of uninsured families have a least one full-time worker in the household, which suggests that many employers are not offering health care coverage to their employees. Employers of part time, low skill and retail workers tend not to offer health insurance coverage and or if they do, the employee share may be cost prohibitive.
Uninsured by Region, 1999
15 12 Percent 9 6 3 0 14 13 12 9 9 9 8

ou nt Ce ry nt ra lE as te Ce rn nt ra lW es te rn

Ce nt ra l

So ut hw es t St at ew id e

Source: New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services, Office of Planning and Research, Health Insurance Coverage and the Uninsured in New Hampshire: Results from the New Hampshire Health Insurance Coverage and Access Survey.

No rth

23

Se ac oa st

Housing
Why is this important? Housing supply plays a key role in whether families can find affordable places to live. The availability of affordable housing, an excess of older, vacant housing or increased demand for real estate by affluent outsiders all have an effect on the age, income level and interests of who can or will live in a community. How are we doing? Berlin and Gorham stand out as having the highest percentage of vacancies across the five town area in both 1990 and 2000, which is most likely influencing the overall trend in Coos County. The high vacancy rates are driven in part by out-migration. A comparison of the vacancy trends in Coos to the more affluent county of Rockingham as well as to New Hampshire as a whole reflects the unique conditions in Coos. While Rockingham and New Hampshire have witnessed dramatic decreases in vacancy rates between 1990 and 2000, Coos has experienced an increase, approaching 5% vacancy. Moreover, the national trend also shows a decline in vacancies.
Percent Housing Vacancies: 1990 and 2000
7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
or ha m ph Sh el bu rn e C oo s R oc ki ng ha m M i la n Be rl i n N H an do l U S

1990

2000

*Percent vacant excludes vacancies due to seasonal/recreational purposes.

24

Property Values
Why is this important? The age, square footage and condition of a home and the real estate market as well as the aesthetics of the neighborhood and access to schools, stores, recreation etc. can all influence property values. When the initial investment in a property becomes a loss it can affect the individual home owner and the community as a whole if would-be home buyers and developers are deterred from investing. If, on the other hand, people from outside the community purchase real estate at higher values, property values may rise making ownership and taxes more challenging for local people. How are we doing? Across the five town area, property values are lowest in Berlin and Gorham and have been subject to substantial decline between 1990 and 2000. The population decline between 1990 and 2000 in these two towns helps explain the decreasing property values. Declining property values also occurred at the state level, suggesting that factors outside of Coos are contributing to this trend on a more widespread level. However, the nation as a whole experienced a modest increase in property values.
Median Value of Owner-occupied Housing Units (in 2000 dollars)
200000 160000 Dollars 120000 80000 40000 0
ha m h oo s e m H N n n ila rli ol p ur n gh a Be M U S

G or

an d

el b

C R

Sh

1990

2000

oc k

in

25

Housing Affordability
Why is this important? Affordability of housing has implications for who stays, who leaves and who is attracted to an area. If housing is not affordable, potential workers may not be able to live near the jobs that are available. Factors that affect affordability include job availability, interest rates, wages, development initiatives, and property taxes. Comparing household income and expenses is a useful means for determining the affordability of housing. This varies for renters and owners. Renters expenses include rent and utilities, whereas owners are responsible for mortgage payments, property taxes, insurance, and utilities. One rule of thumb is that housing expenses should not exceed 25% of household income (NWAF). How are we doing? Between 1990 and 2000 rent became slightly more affordable across the 5 town area, with the exception of Milan, which stands out as having become less affordable. In Berlin rent remained above the 25% level of income even though it has become slightly more affordable since 1990. It is important to note that housing is a higher percentage of household income in Berlin, compared to other parts of the state, primarily because of the lower income levels, not increasing property values.
Median Gross Rent as Percent of Household Income
35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0

or ha m

oo s oc ki ng ha m

ph Sh el bu rn e

M i la n

Be rl i n

an do l

1990

2000

26

School Assessment
Why is this important? The New Hampshire Educational Improvement and Assessment Program (NHEIAP) tests all NH public school third graders in English language arts and mathematics and all sixth and tenth grade students in English language arts, mathematics, science and social studies. The tests create a standard for what New Hampshire students should know and be able to do in core-content areas. The results of the tests produce individual student proficiency reports as well as reports at the school, district and state levels. The information is then used to make decisions about curriculum, instructional strategies, professional development for teachers, resource allocation and staffing. How are we doing? A comparison of school assessments at the third grade level from 1998 to 2004 demonstrates that most students in Berlin and Gorham and in the state as a whole, are performing at the basic or better level. Berlin, Gorham and Milan, however, have a lower percentage of advanced/proficient students in both English and math than the state wide average. In the sixth and tenth grade assessments, however, Gorham has a significantly higher percentage of students performing at the advanced/proficient levels in math and English than Berlin and Milan (Milan School ends with 6th grade and students go to Berlin Junior High) and the state as a whole. Third Grade Assessments, Average for the 1998-2004 School Years

Berlin: Third Grade

Gorham : Third Grade

50 40 30 20 10 0 English advanced/proficient basic Math novice

50 40 30 20 10 0 English advanced/proficient basic Math novice

Milan: Third Grade 50 40 30 20 10 0 English Math

50 40 30 20 10 0

New Ham pshire: Third Grade

English

Math

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At the sixth grade level, Gorham has a higher percentage of students scoring in the advanced and proficient levels than Berlin and Milan and the state as a whole. Berlin students scoring at the basic level equals in English and exceeds in math the state levels, however, Berlin also has a higher percentage of students at the novice level and a lower and a lower percentage of students at the proficient level than the state as whole. Sixth Grade Assessments, Average for the 1998-2004 School Years
Berlin: Sixth Grade
50 40 30
30 60 50 40

Gorham : Sixth Grade

20 10 0 English advanced/proficient basic M ath novice

20 10 0 English advanced/proficient basic M ath novice

Milan: Sixth Grade 50 40 30 20 10 0 English Math

New Hampshire: Sixth Grade 50 40 30 20 10 0 English Math

Note: The area above the dashed line indicates the advanced proportion of the advanced/proficient category, while the area below indicates the proficient proportion.

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At the tenth grade level, Berlin students meet the state average for proficiency in English and math, although Berlin continues to have a higher percentage of students at the basic levels in both areas than the state average. A higher percentage of tenth grade students in Gorham exceed the state average in both English and math, continuing the trend from the sixth grade assessments. Tenth Grade Assessments, Average for the 1998-2004 School Years
Berlin: Tenth Grade 50 40 30 20 10 0 English advanced/proficient basic Math novice

Gorham : Tenth Grade

New Ham pshire: Tenth Grade

50 40 30 20 10 0 English Math
50 40 30 20 10 0 English Math

Note: The area above the dashed line indicates the advanced proportion of the advanced/proficient category, while the area below indicates the proficient proportion.

Source: NHEIAP, URL: http://www.ed.state.nh.us/education/doe/organization/curriculum/Assessment/NHEIAP.ht m.

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Educational Levels
Why is this important? Educational attainment is an important measure of future income levels and employment opportunities. New businesses and industries are often attracted to communities with an educated workforce. How are we doing? In 2003, 37% of high school graduates in Coos County did not go on to higher education immediately after graduation. High school graduate continues to be the highest educational level attained by most people in the 5 town area, except for Randolph and Shelburne which have significant levels of B.A. or higher. The percentage of those who have an educational level of less than a high school diploma has decreased in the 5 town area and across Coos County from 1990 to 2000.
Educational Attainment, 1990
50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
lin n ha m h oo s e ila ol p Be r ur n am ps h
hi re H am ps

G or

an d

Sh el b

Educational Attainment, 2000

60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

or ha m

M i la n

ph

Sh el bu rn e

Be rli n

an do l

Less than High School Some College

High School Graduate B.A. or grad school

ew

C oo s

30

ew

ire

Educational attainment affects income and economic performance across regions. The graph demonstrates the significant difference in educational attainment and income levels between Coos and the other counties in New Hampshire. Rank of NH counties educational attainment & income

Source: May 18, 2001 Gittell, WhittemoreSchool of Economics,University of New Hampshire

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Post High School Education Why is this important? Attending a post secondary school or college provides individuals with skills that increase employment opportunities, civic engagement and earning potential. Higher educational attainment is closely associated with increased income. How are we doing? From 1999 to 2005, Gorham has had a high percentage of graduates attend four year colleges, while Berlin and Coos County as a whole demonstrate consistently lower percentages of high school graduates attending four year colleges or universities. It is important to note, however, that although the percentage of high school graduates in Berlin and Coos, attending four year institutions has declined, the percentage of high school graduates from Berlin attending other post secondary educational opportunities has increased significantly above the state average since 2001.
Percent Entering Four Year Colleges and Universities
60.0% 55.0% 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 1999 2000 Berlin 2001 2002 Gorham 2003 Coos 2004 NH 2005

Percent Entering Less Than Four Year Post Secondary Education

45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 1999 2000 Berlin 2001 2002 Gorham 2003 Coos 2004 NH 2005

Data Source: New Hampshire Department of Education, Department of Program Support.

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ECONOMIC INDICATORS
What is the average income in our communities? What is the unemployment rate? When a community has a strong economic base residents have access to jobs that provide enough income to meet a familys basic need for housing, food, clothing, healthcare, childcare and recreation. Research consistently demonstrates that that family socioeconomic status has a direct impact on future outcomes for children. Ultimately, financially stable residents contribute both economically and socially to the community, thus improving the long-term growth and stability of the community as a whole. Labor Force Participation Why is this important? Labor force participation indicates the percentage of persons 16 and over who are employed or in the armed forces. Employment status is important because it tells us what percentage of those who are able to work are actually working. When there is a high percentage of eligible workforce employed, it indicates that there is a balance between labor force skills and employment opportunities. How are we doing? The percentage of working age males who work has remained relatively consistent between 1980 and 2000 across the five town area, in Coos County and in New Hampshire as a whole. The percentage of working age females who work has increased steadily and consistently over the past two decades.
Percent of Working Age Males Who Work
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

ph

Sh el bu rn e

Be rli n

G or ha m

Co os

il a n

1980

Ra nd ol

1990

2000

Percent of Working Age Females Who Work

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

rli n

ha m

M ila

ur ne

ol p

oo s

Be

G or

an d

Sh

el b

NH

33

Unemployment Rate
Why is this important? Unemployment rates are defined as the percentage of adults in the labor force without employment during a given month. Families that experience on-going unemployment are less likely to access healthcare and proper nutrition and more likely to have increased debt and family stress. Significant on-going unemployment in a community can have a negative impact on community structure and services. How are we doing? Between 1991 and 1999, the Berlin labor market area and Coos County as a whole, experienced higher unemployment rates than the state as a whole, although the rate has declined which has reduced the gap over time.
Unemployment Rate
12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Berlin Area

Coos County

New Hampshire

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Full and Part-Time Work

Why is this important? Full time employment indicates that workers have access to a continuous source of income, sometimes accompanied by health and retirement benefits. Fulltime employment contributes to overall family and community stability because families are less likely to move and more inclined to invest in the community both financially and through civic engagement. How are we doing? It appears that the percentage of part-time workers has increased more steadily and consistently across the five towns and within Coos and the state as whole between 1980 and 2000. In the 5 town area, Coos County and across rural New England, manufacturing jobs, which provided health care and pension plans, along with farming and logging are disappearing. Most replacement jobs are in the service and retail industries which pay lower wages, offer fewer benefits and are often part time or seasonal.
Percentage of Employed Workforce Who Work Full Time
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Berlin Gorham Milan Randolph Shelburne 1990 2000 Coos NH

1980

Percentage of Employed Workforce Who Work Part Time

16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Berlin Gorham Milan Randolph Shelburne Coos NH

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Seasonal Workers
Why is this important? Seasonal workers are defined as those who work full time for 26 weeks or less. Seasonal workers, by definition, have a stable income source for only part of the year and many rely on that income for their year round needs. In addition, seasonal employment, such as recreation and tourism and or other seasonal related businesses, tend to pay lower wages. How are we doing? Seasonal work has been declining steadily since 1980 (except for a small rise in Gorham).
Percentage of Employed Workforce Who Worked Fulltime for 26 Weeks or Less
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Berlin Gorham Milan Randolph Shelburne 1990 2000 Coos NH

1980

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Employment Changes
Why is this important? The numbers of people working in different types of industries indicates the type of employment opportunities that are available. Diversification increases economic stability and makes economic growth less dependent on a single market. Examining the percentage change in the number of people working in particular industries allows us to identify areas for future growth or decline. How are we doing? Between 1990 and 2000, the percentage of workers in the agricultural and forest industries grew slightly in the five town area and across Coos. Even though the growth was slight, it was notable because this type of industry is in general decline on a national level. The other notable changes occurred in the transportation/warehousing and finance industries. The five town area experienced some growth in these industries between 1990 and 2000; however, the 5 town area and Coos in general, are not keeping pace with growth rates at the state-level. Manufacturing jobs in the region and NH declined slightly over the period and we anticipate a significant increase in this trend in the future. There was also a decrease in retail trade which may indicate reduced buying power of residents during this time period.
Distribution of Em ployed Persons by Industry in 1990 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0

Distribution of Employed Persons by Industry in 2000

25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0

M in in C g on st ru ct M io W an n ho uf ac le sa tu ri n le /R g et ai lT Tr ra an de sp or ta tio n Fi na nc e

ing

de

Ag ,f or es t, fi s he ri e s

rin

cti o

ri e

Tr a

in

ti o r ta

fi s he

ac tu

et ail

ns

uf

fo re st,

Ag ,

ho

Area

Coos

NH

Area

les

ale

Coos

37

Tr an

Co

an

/R

sp o

NH

Fi na

tru

nc e

Average Weekly Wages

Why is this important? The average weekly wage per employee is one measure of job quality. When wages increase over time, it means that wages are keeping up with the rate of inflation and employees are able to maintain their standard of living. How are we doing? After adjusting for inflation, the average weekly wages between 1991 and 2002 show little variation in Coos County, where wages hover around $500/week. Average weekly wages at the state level increased slightly and steadily between 1993 and 2002, however, wages for Coos remained consistently lower with a widening gap beginning in 1998.
Average Weekly Wages (2002 dollars)
$800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Coos NH

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One clear benefit of working in goods-producing industries is that workers are consistently paid more than those in service industries and also receive more aggressive wage increases over time.
Average Weekly Wages, Berlin (2002 dollars)
$1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

GoodsProducing-Industries

Service-Providing Industries

Average Weekly Wages, Gorham (2002 dollars)

$800 $600

$400 $200 $0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

GoodsProducing-Industries

Service-Providing Industries

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Per Capita Income

Why is this important? Per capita income is one measure of overall standard of living and economic activity. High per capita income is associated with lower poverty rates, higher educational levels, and positive health outcomes. Low per capita income means that residents have less money to spend and therefore there is less economic activity in the region. How are we doing? While the nineties show an upward trend in per capita income across the nation, per capita income is consistently higher for the state of New Hampshire versus the national figure, but consistently lower in Coos County, in particular. The gap between county and state levels has widened since the mid nineties.
Per Capita Income (1999 Dollars)
$35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Coos New Hampshire United States

Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, REIS CD Table CA1-3, May 2001 Analysis: New Hampshire Office of State Planning.

40

Median Family Income

Why is this important? Median family income is a measure of average family income. It divides the family income distribution into two parts where half of the population has lower incomes and half have higher incomes. By looking at both median family income and per capita income, we can assess the overall wealth of a community. How are we doing? Across the five town area, there has been a slight but consistent increase in median family income from 1990 to 1999, except for Berlin which dropped slightly from 1990 to 1999 and Shelburne which experienced a large increase from 1990-1999.
Median Family Income (1990 dollars)
$50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0
Be rli n G or ha m M ila ur ne ol p oo s N H n h

an d

1980

1990

Sh

el b

1999

Source: US Census 1980, 1990, 2000; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Income Calculator.

41

Poverty Rates
Why is this important? Poverty rates are one measure of an areas ability to create concrete economic opportunities for residents of all skill levels. Poverty rates reflect an areas overall economic strength. When a high percentage of people live in poverty, many residents may not have access to well paying jobs. People living below the poverty level also require community support, which can put a financial burden on the community. How are we doing? There has been a consistent increase in poverty levels in Berlin over multiple decades. In addition to Berlin, the percentage of persons living below poverty appears to have increased in 2000 in Gorham, Shelburne and the state as a whole, whereas in Coos it remained unchanged between 1990 and 2000. Milan and Randolph experienced a decrease in the percentage of persons below poverty between 1990 and 2000.
Percentage of Persons Living Below Poverty
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
G or ha m M ila ur ne ol p oo s rli Be N H n n h

an d

1980

1990

Sh

el b

2000

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Elderly Living in Poverty

Why is this important? Knowing how many elders live below the poverty level helps to identify the percentage of the elderly population that may need assistance. This information has implications for the need for services such as assistance with meals, health and housing. How are we doing? With the exception of Randolph, the percentage of elderly living in poverty is higher in the five town area than at the state-level. For the most part, there has been a modest decrease in the percentage from 1990 to 2000 in the five town area as well as at the county and state-level.

Percentage of Elderly Living in Poverty

20 16 12 8 4 0
ph Sh el bu rn e Be rli n Co os or ha m ila n Ra nd ol M NH

1980

1990

2000

Source: 1980 and 1990 U.S. Census.

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References American Medical Association, Physician Characteristics and Distribution in the US. Childrens Alliance of New Hampshire, 2003. Kids Count New Hampshire Online Data. Gottlob, B.J. 2006. Trend Lines NH: Economic, Fiscal, Demographic and Policy Insights for NH. PolEcon Research. National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention & Health Promotion, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. New Hampshire Coalition Against Domestic and Sexual Violence. New Hampshire Department of Education, Division of Standards and Certification, Concord, NH. New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services, Division of Public Health Services Bureau of Disease Control and Health Statistics, Leading Causes of Death for New Hampshire Residents, 1999-2001. NH DHHS Health Statistics and Data Management. 1998-2003. NH DHHS, Office of Planning and Research, Health Insurance Coverage and the Uninsured in New Hampshire: Results from the NH Health Insurance Coverage and Access Survey. NH DHHS. 1993-1997. "Primary Care Access Data Report Assessing New Hampshire's Communities Fourth Edition, 1993-1997: Analyses of Primary Care Access Data at the Statewide and Hospital Service Area Levels." NHEIAP, URL: http://www.ed.state.nh.us/education/doe/organization/curriculum/Assessment/NHEIAP.ht m. Northwest Area Foundation Indicator Web Site. URL: http://www.indicators.nwaf.org/. UNH Cooperative Extension. 2000-2001. Teen Assessment Project. Uniform Crime Report Unit, Department of Safety, Division of State Police, Concord, NH. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Income Calculator, URL: http://www.stats.bls.gov/. U.S. Census, 1980, 1990, and 2000. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, REIS CD Table CA1-3, May 2001 Analysis: New Hampshire Office of State Planning. URL: http://www.nh.gov/oep/programs/DataCenter/Ecomomic/cppci99.htm.

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