Course on "Macroeconomic modelling for sustainable development".

MODULE VI

African Economies and SDGs: Challenges and Opportunities in Data and

Modelling

Birahim Bouna NIANG

Full Professor
Cheikh Anta Diop University
 Pedagogical objectives of Module VI

The main objective of Module VI is to take stock of the state of play of the Agenda 2030
information system in Africa.

Specifically it is about :

i) to identify the challenges of SDGs,

i) to highlight data gaps,

i) to present a strategy likely to fill the identified gap.

1- Agenda 2030: justification and principles
o The growth and development model born of the industrial revolution has shown its
limits. The problems of sustainability it poses are manifested through several
phenomena:

o overexploitation of natural resources

o environmental degradation

o rising inequality and natural and industrial disasters

o pollution and the adverse effects of climate change

o The new agenda should therefore imperatively constitute a solution for the continuity
of the business as usual scenario.

o Agenda 2030 is therefore based on a number of principles and criteria:

o the universal nature of the programme

o sustainable development perspective

o good governance and effective institutions

o setting up a monitoring-evaluation system

o "Leave no one out"

o The 2030 agenda is structured around :

o 17 SDG

o 169 targets

o 232 indicators

o The 17 SDGs are presented in the table below:

Table 1: The 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs)
2- Challenges of SDGs
o To achieve the goals set out in the 2030 agenda, African countries face a multitude of
challenges:

o structural transformation and the adoption of a new growth model (break with rentier economies,
significant creation of decent jobs and reallocation of employment to sectors with higher productivity,
environmental protection),
o the implementation of a strategy to adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate change
o peace and security (breaking the vicious cycle of conflict, democratic progress, institution of an inclusive
socio-political system, etc.)
o good governance and transparency
o improvement of the information system and availability of ad hoc tools to monitor the programme (quality
data, measurement of progress).
3- Lessons learned from the MDGs and country capacity to inform MDG indicators
o The implementation of the MDG agenda has led to significant advances in human
development:

o reduction by more than half of the number of people living in extreme poverty (the
number has fallen from 1.9 billion in 1990 to 836 million in 2015),

o a fall of almost half in the number of undernourished people in developing regions

between 1990-1992 and 2014-2016 (from 23.3% to 12.9%),

o The net enrolment rate more than doubled in sub-Saharan Africa between 1990 and
2000, rising from 8% to 20%.
o Several lessons can be drawn from the implementation of the MDGs:

1. the importance of having quality data that meets specific criteria (availability, accessibility,
timeliness, disaggregation),

2. the need for a monitoring-evaluation system to measure progress and make the necessary
corrections,

3. the implementation of a participatory approach including the different actors to promote

ownership of the programme,

4. the data revolution to create the conditions for the programme's success.
o African countries face serious difficulties in reporting and monitoring SDGs. In the
case of Senegal, a survey was conducted by a non-governmental organisation, IPAR,
among data producers and users to assess the capacity of the statistical system to
monitor MDGs.

o Survey results (Tables 2 and 3) :

➢ On the side of the data producers :
o For each of the nine areas considered, the strongest constraint is that of resources,
o for the "governance" domain, the strongest constraint is the "collaboration of respondents" followed
by the "administrative protocol",
o as far as the "energy/hydraulics" field is concerned, the administrative protocol seems to be the
tightest constraint.
➢ On the side of the data users :

o the lack of staff is the strongest constraint in three areas: "agriculture", "governance" and
"energy/hydraulics",

o the lack of analytical tools is perceived as constraining "environment" and "governance".

As a result of the multiple constraints, the Senegalese system is only able to provide information on two-thirds
of the SDG indicators (Table 4). The gap is greater in the economic and environmental fields, where the
coverage rate of the indicators is 62% and 67% respectively. The social sector is best covered with a rate of 78%.
Table 2: Main obstacles encountered by data producers
Table 3: Main obstacles encountered by data users
 Table 4: Information on SDG indicators

Source: Ministry of the Economy, Finance and Planning

o The same problems of capacity in the national statistical system can be found in North Africa.

o Figure 1 below shows the average statistical capacity score for North African countries in 2017.
The score is considered indicative of low capacity if it is between 20 and 50. Capacity is
considered medium if the score is in the range 51-75. It is considered high if the score is
between 76 and 100.

o With a score of 22.2% Libya has a low capacity. Algeria, Mauritania, Tunisia and Sudan are
ranked among the medium capacity countries. Only Egypt and Morocco appear as high
capacity North African countries with a score of 83.3% and 76.6% respectively.
o It thus appears that the score is not necessarily GDP or GDP per capita. Countries such as
Algeria and Libya have a relatively low score given their level of development.
This is due to political will and the choices made by public decision-makers.

o With a score of 60.5% Africa south of the Sahara has an average statistical capacity.
 Chart 1: Statistical Capability Indicators (percent), 2017

Source: ECA (2020) "The Data Revolution in North Africa: Putting Data at the Service of Structural
Transformation".
o Statistical capacity is hampered by several persistent constraints (UNECA, 2020) :

(i) limited and unstable budgets,

(ii) inadequate human resources,

(iii) the provision of inadequate equipment and infrastructure,

(iv) low sensitivity to quality.

o The Covid 19 pandemic is an additional constraint that has had a negative impact on the
activities of national statistical institutions in Africa.

o For example, a survey conducted in 2020 (UNECA, 2020b) on a sample of 34 African

countries revealed that 25% of planned surveys were interrupted or suspended and 48 surveys
were postponed.

o In addition, in countries where survey or census activities are ongoing, there has been a low
response rate of respondents and low sample coverage.
o The results of the survey also highlighted needs related to the impact of the health crisis:

- technical assistance and capacity building,

- financial support,

- support in the deployment of collaborative solutions.

4- Evaluation of SDGs, targets and indicators
o The implementation of the SDG programme is assessed here in the light of the Senegalese
experience. A small group was set up for the purposes of the SDG evaluation. It includes the
Office of the Prime Minister, departments attached to the Presidency of the Republic, the
Ministry of Economy, Finance and Planning, the National Statistics Agency, technical
ministries (education, health, environment) and civil society.

o The evaluation focuses to a large extent on the coherence between the 2030 agenda and the
emerging Senegal Plan (PES) which was adopted in 2014 and which constitutes a reference
framework for public policies.
 4.1- Assessment of the alignment of PES and sectoral policies
o The evaluation of the PES strategic framework (Ministry of Economy, Finance and Planning,
2018) shows that there is coherence between the orientations of the PES and the 17 SDGs:

o Axis 1 of the PES which is dedicated to wealth creation and poverty eradication is consistent with five MDGs
(1, 2, 7, 8 and 9);

o Axis 2 relating to "human capital, social protection and sustainable development" is in line with nine SDGs
(3, 4, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13, 14 and 15);

o Axis 3, which deals with "governance, institutions, peace and security", is consistent with three DOs (10, 16
and 17).

o Sectoral policies cover nearly 77% of the MDG targets during the first PES (2014 - 2018).
 4.2- Evaluation of the alignment of the public policy monitoring framework and SDG
indicators
o The Senegalese national statistical system provides information on two-thirds of the SDG
indicators (Ministry of Economy, Finance and Planning, 2018). However, this capacity to
inform indicators varies according to the dimensions (economic, social, environmental,
governance).

o The most informative indicators are the economic and social indicators that were monitored
with the MDGs. Their coverage rates are 78.5% and 74.5% respectively (see Table 5).
However, once sustainability and inequalities are taken into account, the capacity to report on
these indicators decreases from 74.5% to 62%.

o Indicators related to the environment and governance are the least well informed. Their
coverage rate is 66.7%.
Table 5: Senegal's capacity to fill in SDG indicators
o SDG 6, which has 11 indicators, is the only one with a 100% intelligence capacity using
national data.

o With regard to MDGs 8, 3 and 7 on growth, decent work, health and well-being, access to
energy services for vulnerable groups, the intelligence capacity is over 80%.

o The intelligence capacity of OOD 2, 9, 4, 17 and 5 is over 70%.

o The weakest intelligence capability is found with SDG 13, 12 and 10. It is below 43%.
 4.3- Evaluation of the articulation of the SDG and PES targets
o The capacity of PES to reach SDG targets was simulated with the T21 model adapted to
Senegal (T21-iSDG-Senegal model). The scenarios considered are the following (Ministry of
Economy, Finance and Planning, 2018):

o baseline scenario or Business as Usual (BAU): it describes the evolution of socio-economic

variables under the assumption that public policies are unchanged ;

o PES scenario: it is based on the assumption that the PES priority action programme (PAP)
will be implemented over the 2014-2018 period.
o In the LOW scenario, the level of achievement of SDGs is 27%. This result is linked to weak
growth (4.2% in 2030), increasing inequalities and the weakness of MDGs 1 and 10. However,
a better performance is noted for MDGs 3, 6, 12 and 14.

o In the PES scenario there is a clear improvement in the levels of realisation of the MDGs. The
average performance is 22 points higher than in the BAU scenario. The GDP growth rate over
the period 2015-2030 is 7.3%. Growth is driven by public investment, improved governance
and foreign direct investment. In addition, there is a reduction in inequalities and a good
performance of MDGs 1 and 10. Compared to the LOW scenario, the best performances
concern MDGs 2, 11 and 13.
5- Reference situation and projection of SDG indicators
o The analysis of SDG trends in Africa was carried out using a methodology proposed by SDSN
(Sustainable Development Strategy Network) and the establishment of an index and a
dashboard (SDSN, 2019).

5.1- Methodology
o An SDG index has been constructed to estimate the progress of African countries in achieving
SDGs. The score assigned to a MDG can be interpreted as the percentage of achievement. The
difference between 100 and a country's score therefore measures the distance in percentage
points needed to reach the MDGs.

o The same battery of indicators is used to rank countries. However, it should be noted that
differences in the ranking may be related to small differences in the overall score.
o The SDG Scoreboard provides a visual representation of country performance by SDG to
identify priorities for action. The colour scheme of the "traffic light" (green, yellow, orange,
red) is used to illustrate a country's status for a given SDG. The colour green indicates the
achievement of the goal. It is only assigned to a country if all indicators have the required
value. The colours yellow, orange and red indicate the distance to the achievement of the target.

o The MDG Trend Scoreboard shows the extent to which a country is on track to achieve a
particular target by 2030 based on recent indicator performance. Indicator trends are
aggregated at the MDG level to obtain an overall trend and measure progress towards the
overall target.
 5.2- The SDG index in Africa
o The index calculated in 2019 ranks 52 African countries on the basis of 97 indicators covering
the 17 MDGs. The index score indicates a country's position between the worst (0) and the best
(100) situation.

o In 2019, the highest ranked country is Mauritius with a score of 66.19. This means that this
country is 66% of the way towards achieving the MDGs. Among the top 5 countries are
Tunisia (2), Algeria (3), Morocco (4) and Cape Verde (5).

o The worst performing countries are fragile states, which are characterised by a high prevalence
of poverty and conflict within their borders. They include Southern Sudan, Central African
Republic and Chad with scores of 29.2, 36.7 and 38.7 respectively.
5.3- the scorecard and SDG trends
o The Scoreboard is a snapshot of the challenges Africa faces in achieving the MDGs. From
Table 7 below, it can be seen that the colours orange and red are dominant in the Scoreboard.
This means that the majority of countries are not on track to achieve the 17 MDGs. The colours
in the Scoreboard indicate that the greatest challenges for African countries are :

i) MDG 3 (good health and well-being), 87% of countries are in the red,

ii) SDG 9 (infrastructure) with 80% of countries having the colour red,

iii) SDG 16 (pax, justice, strong institutions) with 78% having a red colour.
o The SDGs for which Africans perform best are SDG 163 (climate action) and SDG 12
(responsible consumption and production) with 19% and 26% respectively of the countries that
are green.

o The worst trends are recorded by MDGs 4, 11 and 16. With regard to these MDGs, countries
are treading water.

o On the whole, the most frequent situation is stagnation precisely for SDGs 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9,
and 16.
 Table 6: SDG index ranking in Africa

Source: SDSN (2019)

Table 7: Scoreboard and trends in SDGs in Africa

Source
o The data gap is glaring. It was not possible to make a trend analysis for MDGs 10 and 12 due
to the lack of time series (see Table 8). 43% of the countries do not have data for trend analysis
for MDG 8 and 37% of the countries do not have sufficient data for MDG 11.

Table 8: Trends in 15 out of 17 SDGs in Africa

Source: SDSN (2019)

 6- Elements of a strategy to fill the data gap
o To fill the data gap an effective strategy should be implemented. It is based on the following
measures:

(i) use the data revolution (UNECA, 2020a). The aim is to significantly increase the
volume of data by relying on new technologies (mobile, Internet of Things, geospatial
methods, etc.),

(ii) make cross-sectional data accessible and usable (Van Belle et alii, 2018),

(iii) use open licenses to remove constraints on data dissemination,

(iv) promote public-private partnership in data collection activity,

(v) strengthen the human and technical capacities of data producers (staff capacity
building, provision of appropriate tools and equipment) at both central and local levels,

vi) use traditional and non-conventional data sources (quality data, citizen data, perception
data),

(vii) establish a culture of quality and accountability,

(viii) establish a mechanism for measuring progress,

(ix) promote the credibility of data (robustness of methodology, timeliness, reliability,

accuracy).
THANK YOU FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION