Consensus Economics - Commodity Prices

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OCTOBER 2022
ENERGY, METALS & AGRICULTURE Commodity Price
Surveys Since 1995
CONSENSUS FORECASTS®
WTI Al Cu Ni Pb Zn Sn Fe Au Ag Pt $
Survey Date
October 17, 2022
Energy, Metals and Agriculture Consensus Forecasts surveys up to 40 energy, metals and agriculture
analysts every month for a range of commodity price forecasts. The results covering 47 commodities –
together with reference data, analysis, special surveys, and the underlying global macroeconomic outlook –
are sent to subscribers by express mail and e-mail.
Page
Commodity Price and Currency Correlations:
Overview ................................................ 2
On pages 26 and 27 we present our analysis of Commodity Price and
Macroeconomic Outlook ...................... 3 Currency Correlations, measuring the degree to which they move
either together or in opposite directions for the period January 1997
Commodity Price Indices ..................... 4 through September 2022 (Gold and inverted US$ Index, below).
Long-Term Forecasts ............................ 5 Agricultural Forecasts: A New Edition

Individual Commodity Forecasts As part of ongoing efforts to expand our survey coverage, we have
Crude Oil – Brent ................................. 6 included as a PDF supplement and in the Excel workbook (both by
Crude Oil – WTI ................................... 7 email) individual and consensus forecasts for Wheat, Corn,
Gasoline, Heating Oil & Gas Oil ........... 8 Soybeans, Sugar, Cocoa, Cotton and Palm Oil.
Natural Gas (US, EU, UK and LNG) ........ 9
Coal (Lump and Fine) ............................ 10 Despite unresolved disruptions to trade and supply chains, the weak
Uranium & Carbon .............................. 11 growth profile of the global economy appears to have gained an
edge over the price prospects for non-energy commodities. Alu-
Aluminium .......................................... 12 minium (page 12), Copper (page 14),and Zinc (page 17) have each
Alumina.............................................. 13
Copper ............................................... 14 dropped by around 20% in the year to date, due to the risks of a
Nickel ................................................ 15 recession in 2023. The US was not the first country to tighten mon-
Lead ................................................... 16 etary policy, but the intensity of its recent rate hikes, which may be
Zinc ................................................... 17 extended on November 2, has added urgency to the problem of
elevated and persistent inflation. Growth forecast downgrades have
Steel .................................................. 18 occurred among the major countries in anticipation of a synchro-
Iron Ore (China and Australia) ............. 19 nised slowdown, which has the potential to be longer and deeper
Tin, Cobalt, Lithium Carbonate,
Lithium Hydroxide, ............................. 20 than previously anticipated (macro outlook on page 3). In particular,
Lithium Spodumene, Manganese, uncertainty has been heightened by the energy crisis in Europe, as
Molybdenum, Rutile, Ilmenite, Zircon.. 21 Russia holds it hostage over supplies as payback for the bloc’s
support for Ukraine. Furthermore, insatiable Chinese demand for
Gold ................................................... 22 raw materials can seemingly no longer be relied upon, as Beijing
Silver ................................................. 23 (continued on page 2)
Platinum ............................................ 24
Palladium ........................................... 25 Gold Futures Prices – 3 Month Contract (COMEX)
US$ Index
US$/troy oz, Daily High/Low/Close
2,100 96
Commodity Price and Currency
98
Correlations: US$ Index
2,000 100
- A Special Analysis ........................ 26-27 (rhs, inverted scale)
102
Chart of Commodity Forecasts........... 28 1,900 104

106
1,800 108
Our next issue of Energy & Metals Consensus
Forecasts will be available at the end of the day 110
1,700 Gold Futures, 3 Month 112
November 18, 2022 (GMT).
Daily High/Low/Close (lhs)
114
1,600 116
Apr 2022 May 2022 Jun 2022 Jul 2022 Aug 2022 Sep 2022 Oct 2022
Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts (ISSN: 1754-825X) is published by Consensus Economics Inc., Publisher: Philip M. Hubbard Editors: Che-Wing Pang
53 Upper Brook Street, London, W1K 2LT, United Kingdom editors@consensuseconomics.com Richard Potts
Tel: (44 20) 7491 3211 www.consensuseconomics.com Assistant Editor: Jason Healy
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2022. All rights reserved. The contents of this publication, either in whole or in part, may not be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any means,
© Copyright Consensus
electronic, photocopying, Economics
digitization Inc.
or otherwise 2022
without the prior written permission of the publisher. The Editor and Consensus Economics Inc., do not guarantee or provide any warranties or take any 1
responsibility for the information set forth herein, including the accuracy, completeness, non-infringement, suitability or timeliness of the forecasts or written analysis.
OVERVIEW OCTOBER 2022
(continued from front page)
doubled down on its contentious ‘zero covid’ policy at the imposed on businessmen with links to the Kremlin caused
recent Communist Party Congress. In addition, China’s lat- the LME to consider a wider ban on sources of Russian met-
est round of fiscal stimulus did little to contain fears of a als from its warehouses. Furthermore, Natural gas (page 9)
property debt crisis as developers struggle to service re- has suffered wide swings, as the suspected sabotage of
payments. Alongside a difficult commodity demand situa- Nordstream pipelines in the Baltic Sea placed further strain
tion is a murky outlook for supply, making it difficult to pre- on European supply chains. Immediate price pressures may
dict near term trends. High volatility has been witnessed in ease as most EU countries have built up inventories to cover
Crude oil (pages 6-7) as the OPEC+ cartel announced a much of the winter, but the outlook for 2023 is fraught with
substantial cut in production targets to stop the recent down- uncertainty. Wheat (PDF supplement) has also been volatile,
ward price correction. Base Metals (pages 12- 17) have been as Russia’s tactical shift to targeting Ukrainian infrastructure
affected by geo-political considerations after new sanctions throws the internationally backed grain export deal into doubt.
SUMMARY OF SELECT ENERGY & METALS CONSENSUS FORECASTS

% change Spot Price Forecast %
(Nominal, Quarterly Averages)
See individual commodity pages Change to
for mineral specifications See since end Oct. 17, Consensus Forecasts Sep. 2023
page Dec. 2021 2022 Mar. 2023 Jun. 2023 Sep. 2023 Quarter
Crude Oil - Brent (US$/bbl) 6 +17.0% 91.04 95.47 93.64 91.97 +1.0%
- WTI (US$/bbl) 7 +14.3% 86.00 90.62 89.27 87.82 +2.1%
US Natural Gas (US$/MMBtu) 9 +73.0% 6.453 6.688 5.690 5.343 -17.2%
1
Coal (Steaming, US$/tonne) 10 +106.8% 379.0 339.0 292.4 279.0 -26.4%
Uranium (US$/lb) 11 +21.3% 51.00 53.98 54.48 55.29 +8.4%
Aluminium (US$/tonne) 12 -20.2% 2239 2375 2410 2466 +10.1%

Alumina (US$/tonne) 13 -8.8% 318.9 331.0 326.1 326.8 +2.5%
Copper (US$/tonne) 14 -20.4% 7710 7437 7475 7622 -1.1%
Nickel (US$/tonne) 15 +2.7% 21455 20809 20447 19941 -7.1%
Lead (US$/tonne) 16 -10.9% 2075 1957 1953 1950 -6.0%
Zinc (US$/tonne) 17 -20.0% 2903 3120 3046 3024 +4.2%
Tin (US$/tonne) 20 -50.3% 19675 22425 22815 23142 +17.6%
Steel (HRC, Europe, US$/tonne) 18 -27.5% 755.0 721.5 714.3 693.3 -8.2%
1
Iron Ore (N. China. Fine, US$/tonne) 19 -6.2% 100.2 102.8 102.1 97.34 -2.9%
Gold (US$/troy oz.) 22 -8.7% 1649 1681 1678 1690 +2.5%

Silver (US$/troy oz.) 23 -18.7% 18.77 18.97 19.23 19.59 +4.4%
Platinum (US$/troy oz.) 24 -4.1% 920.0 973 1013 1048 +13.9%
Palladium (US$/troy oz.) 25 +2.9% 2031 1968 1987 1976 -2.7%
1
Consensus Forecasts for Q4 2022
NOTES, ABBREVIATIONS, WEIGHTS AND MEASURES OCTOBER 2022

❒ EIA – Energy Information Agency (USA) ❒ e – Estimate
LME – London Metal Exchange na – Not Available
LBMA – London Bullion Market Association fob – Free On Board
LPPM – London Platinum and Palladium Market bbl – Barrel
NYMEX – New York Mercantile Exchange dltu – Dry long tonne unit (1/100 of a dry long tonne)
COMEX – New York Commodities Exchange dmtu – Dry metric tonne unit (1/100 of a dry metric tonne)
ICE – Intercontinental Exchange MMBtu – Millions of British Thermal Units (Btu)
❒ Commodity forecasts on pages 6-25 (pages 4-23 in abridged versions) are listed in descending order of their approximate
1-year percentage change estimates. Consensus forecasts are mean averages of individual quarterly average forecasts.
❒ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expressed in real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) terms. GDP and Industrial Production are expressed
as average percentage changes over the previous calendar year unless otherwise indicated.
❒ 1 kilogram = 32.1507 troy ounces ❒ 1 short ton = 0.907 metric tonnes = 2000 pounds
❒ 1kilogram (kg) = 2.2046 pounds ❒ 1 barrel = 42 US gallons
❒ 1,000 kilograms = 1 metric tonne = 2204.6 pounds ❒ 10 Therms of Natural Gas = 1 million Btu = 1MMBtu
❒ 1 long tonne = 1.016 metric tonnes = 2240 pounds ❒ 1 metric/long tonne unit (MTU/LTU) = 1/100 of a metric/long tonne
2 © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2022
OCTOBER 2022 MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Economic growth rates provide a valuable insight into the behaviour of energy and metals prices, with industrial production
growth forecasts in particular giving an overview of the likely demand for many commodities. The forecasts below are
taken from the current issues of our publications Consensus Forecasts – G7 & Western Europe, Asia Pacific Consensus
Forecasts, Eastern Europe Consensus Forecasts and Latin American Consensus Forecasts.
REAL GDP GROWTH Consensus INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION GROWTH Consensus

(% change on previous year) Forecasts (% change on previous year) Forecasts
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
United States 2.3 -2.8 5.9 1.7 0.2 United States -0.7 -7.0 4.9 4.1 -0.6
China 6.0 2.2 8.1 3.2 4.8 China 5.8 2.6 9.6 4.1 4.9
Japan -0.4 -4.6 1.7 1.5 1.5 Japan -2.7 -10.6 5.6 -0.3 2.4
Euro zone 1.6 -6.2 5.2 3.0 0.0 Euro zone -0.8 -7.5 7.9 0.3 0.1
World 1 2.5 -3.2 5.9 2.7 1.7 World 0.8 -5.3 7.1 2.4 1.4
1
Country weights available to qualified subscribers upon request.
Regional 2022 and 2023 GDP Growth Outlook Selected 2022 and 2023 Industrial Production Forecasts
Consensus Forecasts from our October 2022 Surveys Consensus Forecasts from our October 2022 Surveys
% %
% Change on Previous Year % Change on Previous Year
8.0 10.0 2021 2022 2023
7.0
6.0 8.0
5.0
6.0
4.0
3.0 4.0
2.0
1.0 2.0
0.0
0.0
-1.0 2021 2022 2023
-2.0 -2.0
North Western Asia Eastern Latin US China Japan Euro zone Brazil
America Europe Pacific Europe America
Recession Threat in 2023 Continues to Build Changes to Consensus GDP Growth Forecasts
2023 GDP growth forecasts have continued to deteriorate Jan. 10, 2022 Oct. 10 2022 %-point
Survey Survey Change
markedly in recent months, due to a global liquidity squeeze
and soaring energy costs. The latter is most pressing in Eu- 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023
rope, as the Russia/Ukraine war has throttled available pipe- United States 3.9 2.6 1.7 0.2 -2.2 -2.4
lines for natural gas delivery. Amid rampant inflation and cen-
Euro zone 4.0 2.5 3.0 0.0 -1.5 -2.5
tral bank rate hikes, many EU countries are expected to record
outright negative growth in the year ahead. In Asia, China China 5.0 5.3 3.2 4.8 -1.8 -0.5
faces challenges of its own and is not in a position to escape Japan 3.1 1.5 1.5 1.5 -1.6 0.0
the spillover of issues from the West. Stimulus injections from United Kingdom 4.3 2.2 4.1 -0.3 -0.2 -2.5
Beijing will offer some growth support, but these may not be
World 4.1 3.2 2.7 1.7 -1.4 -1.5
enough to counter the drag from its zero covid stance, nor
Source: Consensus Economics
revive its wounded property sector.
NYBOT Index measures the value of the USD in relation to a EXCHANGE RATES Source: Foreign Exchange Consensus
Forecasts, Oct. 10, 2022
basket of currencies, comprising the EUR (57.6%), JPY (13.6%), (per US dollar)
GBP (11.9%), CAD (9.1%), SEK (4.2%) and CHF (3.6%). Spot ----- Consensus Forecasts -----
1
US $ per
Rate % change End Oct.
115.0 currency unit Oct. 10, End Nov. End Oct.
112.5 2022 2022 2023 from spot 2024
110.0 USD NYBOT INDEX ¹ +6.5
Euro 0.970 0.987 1.034 1.069
107.5
105.0 Japanese yen 145.7 142.5 134.4 +8.5 127.5
102.5 ¹ +10.6
Australian dollar 0.628 0.664 0.695 0.709
100.0 +2.6
Chinese renminbi 7.162 7.150 6.979 6.746
97.5
95.0 Canadian dollar 1.375 1.339 1.311 +4.9 1.289
Jan 3 Feb 14 Mar 28 May 9 Jun 20 Aug 1 Sep 12 Oct 24 Brazilian real 5.209 5.313 5.294 -1.6 5.382
2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 2022 Indian rupee 82.33 81.49 81.16 +1.4 81.43
Scope for Further US dollar Appreciation? of global recession sapping appetite for risk, capital has
The US dollar soared to a fresh 20 year high in the lead up to flocked to the US. The effect has been particularly appar-
our survey, as resilience of the US labor market and stub- ent for the currencies of countries perceived to be lagging
bornly high inflation kept pressure on the US Fed to maintain behind the monetary policy curve. These include the euro,
its recent pattern of large US rate hikes. With yields on 10 UK pound, and Japanese yen, which have slipped by 13.7%,
year US government bonds now above 4.0%, and the spectre 15.6%, and 22.6%, respectively, in the year to date.
© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2022 3
COMMODITY PRICE INDICES OCTOBER 2022
Commodity price indices are useful aggregates of individual commodity price trends. We focus here on two commodity
price indices: The Economist Base Metals Index (which weights the prices of major base metals according to their share
of world trade in 2015) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Non-Rural Commodity Price Index (which weights the
prices of major minerals according to their share of Australian exports in 2020/2021). Both indices are expressed as US$
prices in a given base year and track the performance of their particular subset of commodities. In addition to showing
historical data from the two indices, we also show consensus forecasts for both over the next eight quarters. These are
calculated from weighting consensus commodity price forecasts from this edition’s survey. In the first two charts below, we
also show the highest and lowest projections over the forecast horizon in order to illustrate the range of forecasts.
Consensus
The Economist Base Metals Index Consensus
RBA Non-Rural Commodity Price Forecasts
220
340 (2015=100) Forecasts Index (2020/21 = 100)
200
300
High 180 High
260 160
220 140 Mean
Mean 120
180
100
140 80
Low
100 60
Low
60 40
Q12012 Q12014 Q12016 Q12018 Q12020 Q12022 Q12024
Q12012 Q12014 Q12016 Q12018 Q12020 Q12022 Q12024
Weights By Share of World Trade: Weights By Share of Australia Export Values:

Aluminium (47%), Copper (32%), Nickel (8%), Zinc (7%), Coking Coal (21%), Thermal Coal (14%), Gold (13%),
Lead (3%), Tin (3%) Iron Ore Lump (13%), Aluminium (11%), Alumina (10%),
LNG (7%), Copper (4%), Nickel (4%), Zinc (2%), Lead (1%)
The Economist Base Metals Index is a sub-index of The RBA Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is a
the headline Economist Commodity Price Index, containing sub-index of the RBA’s Headline Index of Commodity
six base metals: Aluminium, Copper, Lead, Nickel, Tin and Prices. The index uses an Australian fiscal base year 2020/
Zinc. The index base year is 2015 = 100, and the headline 2021 (July to June) and weights major minerals (listed
index is available in sterling and euros, as well as US dol- above) according to their share of Australian export val-
lars. It is published on a weekly basis. Energy & Metals ues. Crude Oil is excluded while liquefied natural gas (LNG)
Consensus Forecasts then converts this week-by-week data is included (it represents about 7% of the index and is
into quarterly averages and calculates the index forecasts represented in Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts cal-
by using our panellists’ projections for the individual metals. culations as forecasts for the Japan Korea Marker).
Recent Historical Data and Projections Using Consensus Forecasts

2022 2023 2024
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Economist Base Metals Index 214.4 207.6 162.8 161.4 160.0 161.0 163.5 166.8 164.3 164.1 163.1
RBA Non-Rural Commodity 144.8 168.5 143.8 134.5 133.0 129.8 126.6 124.9 121.7 119.1 117.3
Price Index (2020/2021 = 100) (all index values are quarterly averages)
Changes in the Consensus: Changes in the Consensus:

The Economist Base Metals Index RBA Non-Rural Commodity Price Index
250 200
230 Historical Data 180 Historical Data

210 Aug 2022 Survey Aug 2022 Survey
160
Sep 2022 Survey
190 Sep 2022 Survey
140
Oct 2022 Survey
170 Oct 2022 Survey
120
150
Consensus 100
130 Forecasts Consensus
80 Forecasts
110
90 60
70 40
Q12012 Q12014 Q12016 Q12018 Q12020 Q12022 Q12024 Q12012 Q12014 Q12016 Q12018 Q12020 Q12022 Q12024

OCTOBER 2022 LONG TERM FORECASTS
Individual nominal forecasts available in the Excel spreadsheet.
Long-term price forecasts provide a foundation for expected returns from both existing production facilities and those under
development. In addition to their annual forecasts for the years 2022 to 2026 the table below summarises our panel’s
Long-Term 5-10 year average estimates (2027-2031) in nominal and real (inflation adjusted) curent year dollar terms.
Consensus Forecasts
See individual commodity US$
Average Long-Term
pages for mineral (US$ Nominal, Annual Averages)
(2027-2031 Average)
specifications
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Nominal Real
Crude Oil - Brent 70.71 101.85 92.69 83.67 77.16 76.81 76.24 66.90
- WTI 67.92 96.77 88.40 79.99 73.85 73.80 72.71 64.83
RBOB Gas (US) 2.094 3.029 2.783 2.930 3.500 3.800 na na
Gas Oil (Europe) 584.0 1054 1002 1300 1250 1200 na na
Natural Gas - US, $ 3.707 6.809 5.738 5.031 4.796 4.526 5.198 4.649
- LNG, $ 18.21 36.49 41.38 30.60 25.65 27.77 27.10 25.00
Coking Coal - Contract 183.2 347.4 263.2 226.2 206.1 188.8 194.2 167.2
Thermal Coal - Contract 92.84 254.0 286.0 238.4 184.9 141.3 99.64 86.30
- Spot 116.1 287.3 292.2 210.1 149.4 117.0 101.8 86.4
Uranium 34.68 50.56 55.03 53.17 54.33 54.80 54.76 47.06
Aluminium 2475 2719 2445 2665 2614 2587 2699 2413

Alumina 327.8 366.4 328.3 331.4 335.4 347.1 389.5 337.8
Copper 9309 8716 7580 7899 8191 8267 8464 7629
Nickel 18456 25241 20220 19961 19696 19409 20744 17864
Lead 2203 2123 1961 1983 1984 2019 2279 1974
Zinc 3006 3536 3058 2915 2811 2739 2816 2368
Cobalt 24.21 31.48 24.90 27.00 29.09 27.94 27.68 24.17
Tin 32580 31555 23021 23791 22488 22043 25389 22110
Manganese 5.204 6.295 5.294 5.126 5.116 5.158 5.298 4.567
Molybdenum 16.07 17.39 15.13 13.85 12.72 12.17 10.98 9.556
Rutile 1206 1268 1261 1263 1295 1338 1351 1226
Ilmenite 218.1 267.2 262.3 246.3 242.2 249.3 235.4 201.1
Zircon 1475 1592 1505 1504 1504 1505 1471 1306
Steel - HRC, Europe 1129 964.2 704.5 695.5 660.9 682.9 520.5 455.3
HRC, USA 1628 1067 749.8 720.2 688.5 706.2 670.4 609.7
HRC, China 722.8 599.7 554.8 566.8 559.9 585.0 468.0 412.5
Iron Ore - Lump (Aust) 154.5 120.93 97.41 92.75 91.40 87.44 87.30 75.91
Fine (Aust) 136.5 106.15 89.26 79.08 74.43 70.26 70.68 60.59
Fine (China) 156.2 119.6 99.27 87.94 83.46 80.84 83.07 72.23
Gold 1799 1795 1686 1697 1666 1662 1727 1453

Silver 25.14 21.30 19.46 20.25 20.45 20.89 22.54 19.19
Platinum 1090 954 1029 1140 1206 1253 1293 1119
Palladium 2398 2128 1967 1792 1583 1446 1296 1087
% Change Between 2022 and 2026 % Change Between 2026 and Long-Term Average
(Nominal Prices) (Nominal Prices)
Crude Oil (WTI) Crude Oil (WTI)
Coking Coal Coking Coal
Therm al Coal Therm al Coal
Alum inium Alum inium
Copper Copper
Nickel Nickel
Lead Lead
Zinc Zinc
Iron Ore-Lum p (Aus)
Iron Ore-Lum p (Aus)
Steel - (USA)
Steel - (USA)
Gold
Gold
Silver
Silver
-60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10%
-16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16%

CRUDE OIL - BRENT OCTOBER 2022
Brent Crude Oil Forecasts, US$/barrel Nominal, Quarterly Averages, Annual Price Forecasts on Page 5
Survey Date Spot
Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 % change Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24
(Oct. 17): US$ 91.04 from spot
ABN Amro 97.00 115.00 123.00 115.00 26.3% 110.00 110.00 105.00 100.00
Budapest Bus. School 100.00 110.00 115.00 110.00 20.8% 110.00 105.00 105.00 105.00
Goldman Sachs 110.00 115.00 105.00 110.00 20.8% 110.00 90.00 90.00 90.00
Morgan Stanley 95.00 100.00 100.00 110.00 20.8% 110.00 na na na
BoA Securities 95.00 95.00 100.00 105.00 15.3% 100.00 na na na
ANZ 107.80 109.00 108.00 104.00 14.2% 97.00 95.00 95.00 95.00
BMO 97.59 93.70 103.00 103.00 13.1% 103.00 103.00 105.00 105.00
Commerzbank 95.00 95.00 95.00 100.00 9.8% 100.00 na na na
Commonwealth Bank 95.00 90.00 95.00 97.00 6.5% 99.00 100.00 100.00 98.00
JP Morgan 101.00 96.00 98.00 97.00 6.5% 99.00 na na na
Oxford Economics 97.80 99.00 97.54 95.01 4.4% 92.73 90.41 88.15 86.03
ISGR 110.00 105.00 100.00 95.00 4.3% 90.00 85.00 85.00 83.00
UBS 100.13 100.00 95.00 95.00 4.3% 90.00 85.00 85.00 85.00
Australia Dept of Industry 98.00 99.00 96.00 94.00 3.3% 90.00 83.00 81.00 79.00
Deloitte Access Economics 100.86 97.13 94.55 92.41 1.5% 89.44 83.16 80.95 78.21
Investec 96.50 96.50 91.50 91.50 0.5% 87.50 87.50 81.00 81.00
Capital Economics 90.00 98.25 94.75 91.25 0.2% 87.25 83.50 80.50 77.50
Societe Generale 110.00 105.00 95.00 90.00 -1.1% 85.00 na na na
Econ Intelligence Unit 94.00 92.15 90.87 89.05 -2.2% 87.33 86.33 85.33 84.33
Ecoanalitica 92.17 91.03 90.74 88.78 -2.5% 86.92 80.26 83.91 81.75
Pezco Economics 90.09 89.89 89.38 88.50 -2.8% 87.46 87.25 86.52 85.74
Standard Chartered 95.00 93.00 90.00 88.00 -3.3% 93.00 92.00 94.00 na
Credit Suisse 90.00 90.00 85.00 85.00 -6.6% 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00
Deutsche Bank 95.00 100.00 95.00 85.00 -6.6% 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00
Moody's Analytics 98.47 97.81 95.44 84.75 -6.9% 77.20 74.31 72.20 70.97
P K Verleger 90.00 75.00 78.50 82.20 -9.7% 86.10 87.30 91.60 96.10
Liberum Capital 85.00 83.00 81.00 79.00 -13.2% 77.00 75.00 73.00 72.00
Citigroup 85.00 78.00 72.00 77.00 -15.4% 74.00 52.00 52.00 52.00
Bank Julius Baer 87.50 82.50 77.50 75.00 -17.6% 72.50 na na na
Macquarie 88.00 85.00 80.00 70.00 -23.1% 70.00 63.71 64.26 64.87
Euromonitor International 94.98 83.58 71.14 63.53 -30.2% 58.51 54.91 51.98 50.01
Consensus (Mean) 96.19 95.47 93.64 91.97 1.0% 89.68 84.55 83.86 82.52
High 110.00 115.00 123.00 115.00 110.00 110.00 105.00 105.00
Low 85.00 75.00 71.14 63.53 58.51 52.00 51.98 50.01
Standard Deviation 6.76 9.79 11.33 12.05 12.59 13.75 13.98 14.14
Survey of Sep. 19, 2022 Total Oil Volumes - Supply and Demand Consensus Forecasts
World (millions of
barrels per day)
2022 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2023 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Demand 98.77 98.50 99.90 101.22 100.68 100.84 101.74 102.55
Supply 98.40 98.47 99.71 100.47 100.19 100.56 101.18 101.55
of which:
OPEC 33.70 33.72 34.02 34.08 32.55 34.64 34.76 34.96
Russia 11.37 10.28 10.28 10.22 10.79 10.76 10.72 10.67
USA 17.05 18.16 18.52 18.87 18.86 18.91 19.00 19.11
Supply-Demand Balance -0.37 -0.03 -0.19 -0.76 -0.49 -0.29 -0.56 -1.00
Supply and Demand in Flux
Total Oil Supply and Demand Balances
(millions of barrels per day)
Consensus ² Crude oil remains well below its 2022 highs
105 Forecasts 10.0 but spiked after OPEC+ nations agreed on
Supply
October 5 to reduce output quotas by 2
(left scale) 8.0 million barrels per day from November.
100
² Although the impact of a drop in volume
6.0 targets from the cartel could be overstated
95 (as some members already produced be-
4.0
Implied Stock Change low the agreed quotas) it could fan global
(right scale) inflation and exacerbate growth concerns.
2.0
90 ² Brent and WTI retreated last week, as glo-
0.0
bal demand fears countered that of sup-
ply restraint. High employment keeps pres-
85
-2.0 sure on the US Fed to sustain its recent
trend of large rate hikes. A recession in
Demand (left scale)
80 -4.0 Europe also appears likely, due to an en-
Q1 '13 Q1 '14 Q1 '15 Q1 '16 Q1 '17 Q1 '18 Q1 '19 Q1 '20 Q1 '21 Q1 '22 Q1 '23 ergy crisis. In addition, China has strug-
gled for momentum, due to its lockdown
Source: International Energy Agency for Historical Data. policies to combat the spread of Covid.
OCTOBER 2022 CRUDE OIL - WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE
WTI Crude Oil Forecasts, US$/barrel Nominal, Quarterly Averages, Annual Price Forecasts on Page 5
Survey Date Spot Dec '22 Mar '23 Jun '23 Sep '23 % change Dec '23 Mar '24 Jun '24 Sep '24
ABN Amro 92.00 110.00 118.00 110.00 27.9% 105.00 105.00 100.00 95.00
Morgan Stanley 91.00 97.50 97.50 107.50 25.0% 107.50 na na na
Goldman Sachs 105.00 110.00 100.00 105.00 22.1% 105.00 85.00 85.00 85.00
ANZ 105.80 107.60 107.00 103.00 19.8% 96.00 94.00 94.00 94.00
BMO 91.09 88.70 100.00 100.00 16.3% 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
JP Morgan 98.00 92.00 94.00 93.00 8.1% 95.00 na na na
CIBC 96.40 91.00 91.00 91.00 5.8% 91.00 85.00 85.00 85.00
UBS 96.13 96.00 91.00 91.00 5.8% 86.00 81.00 81.00 81.00
Oxford Economics 95.50 95.28 93.20 90.49 5.2% 88.23 86.02 83.87 81.86
Banco de Credito del Peru 90.00 90.00 90.00 90.00 4.7% 90.00 78.00 78.00 na
ISGR 105.00 100.00 95.00 90.00 4.7% 85.00 80.00 80.00 79.00
Investec 89.50 89.50 85.50 85.50 -0.6% 82.50 82.50 76.00 76.00
Societe Generale 105.00 100.00 90.00 85.00 -1.2% 80.00 na na na
Pezco Economics 86.04 85.43 84.51 84.53 -1.7% 83.96 84.18 83.89 83.55
Ecoanalitica 86.79 84.94 83.92 83.50 -2.9% 83.37 78.36 80.76 79.68
Capital Economics 85.00 90.00 86.00 82.00 -4.7% 77.50 74.00 72.00 70.00
Credit Suisse 87.00 87.00 82.00 82.00 -4.7% 77.00 77.00 77.00 77.00
Deutsche Bank 91.00 96.00 91.00 81.00 -5.8% 76.00 76.00 76.00 76.00
Moody's Analytics 92.83 91.93 89.90 80.15 -6.8% 73.21 70.58 68.65 67.53
P K Verleger 85.00 70.00 73.50 77.20 -10.2% 81.10 85.30 89.60 94.10
Citigroup 81.00 75.00 69.00 74.00 -14.0% 71.00 49.00 49.00 49.00
Liberum Capital 79.00 77.00 75.00 73.00 -15.1% 72.00 70.00 68.00 67.00
Macquarie 83.00 80.50 75.50 65.50 -23.8% 63.50 59.53 60.04 60.62
Consensus (Mean) 91.16 90.62 89.27 87.82 2.1% 85.91 80.95 80.29 79.30
High 105.80 110.00 118.00 110.00 107.50 105.00 102.00 102.00
Low 79.00 70.00 69.00 62.40 57.82 49.00 49.00 49.00
130 Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
US$/bbl Crude Oil (Brent and WTI) Brent As of survey date
105 105
110
Prices, US$/barrel Brent Energy Information.
100 100
90 Admin.,USA (Oct. 12)
WTI
95 95
70
90
Consensus 90
50 (Brent)
85 85
30
80 80
10
Jan 2018 Jan 2019 J an 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 75
US$/bbl ICE Futures (Brent) 75
US$ Crude Oil Futures – January 2023 Contracts Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
1 20 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024
Brent, 3 Month Contract 100 100
(ICE) Daily High/Low/Close WTI US$/bbl
1 10 Energy Information
95 95
Admin., USA, WTI, (Oct. 12)
1 00 90 90
90 85 85
Consensus
WTI, Daily Close, 80 (WTI) 80
80
3 MonthContract (NYMEX) NYMEX
75 75
70 Futures (WTI)
A pr 2 022 May 202 2 Ju n 2 022 Jul 20 22 A ug 202 2 S e p 20 22 O c t 202 2 70 70
70 Crude oil is refined into numerous saleable products

60 US Crack Spread US$ per barrel (based on spot prices)
including gasoline and Gas Oil (or heating oil). The crack
50 spread is used to estimate the profitability of refining
40 the raw material. When the spread is positive, the price
30 of the refined products is above that of crude oil. The
chart opposite (based on spot prices) shows a com-
20
monly used 3:2:1 crack spread, reflecting a ratio of re-
10 finery output of 2 barrels of RBOB gasoline and 1 barrel
0 of US heating oil from 3 barrels of WTI crude oil.
Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022
RBOB & EUROPEAN GAS OIL OCTOBER 2022
RBOB Gasoline (US) Forecasts, US$/gallon, fob Nominal, Quarterly Averages, Annual Price Forecasts on Page 5
Survey Date Spot
(Oct. 17): US$ 2.593
Dec '22 Mar '23 Jun '23 Sep '23 % change Dec '23 Mar '24 Jun '24 Sep '24
from spot
Goldman Sachs 2.810 3.180 3.170 3.130 20.7% 2.900 2.560 2.560 2.560
P K Verleger 2.540 2.180 2.270 2.360 -9.0% 2.450 2.550 2.650 2.760
Consensus (Mean) 2.723 2.725 2.798 2.855 10.1% 2.755 2.703 2.737 2.773
High 2.810 3.180 3.170 3.130 3.000 3.000 3.000 3.000
Low 2.540 2.180 2.270 2.360 2.450 2.550 2.560 2.560
US$ Consensus Forecasts for RBOB Gasoline

RBOB Gasoline (US), Spot Price US$/gallon 3.5 3.5
As of survey date
4.5
4.0
Energy Information
Admin.,USA, (Oct. 12)
3.5
3.0 3.0
3.0 Consensus
2.5
2.0
2.5 2.5
1.5
1.0 RBOB
0.5 NYMEX Futures
0.0 2.0 2.0
Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024
RBOB/Heating Oil Futures – January 2023 Contracts (NYMEX)
Futures Prices For RBOB and Heating Oil
US$ As of survey date
4.5 4.0 4.0
Heating Oil, Daily Close, RBOB Gasoline, 3 Month US$/gallon
4.0 3 Month Contract Contract, Daily High/Low/Close
3.5 3.5
Heating Oil
3.5 NYMEX Futures
3.0 3.0
RBOB
3.0
NYMEX Futures
2.5 2.5
2.5
2.0 2.0
2.0 Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
A pr 2022 May 2022 Jun 2022 Jul 2022 A ug 2022 Sep 2022 Oc t 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024
European Gas Oil Forecasts, US$/tonne, fob Nominal, Quarterly Averages, Annual Price Forecasts on Page 5
Survey Date Spot
P K Verleger 1278.0 1065.1 994.5 975.4 -13.3% 1016.8 1016.3 1044.7 1078.3
Commerzbank 810.0 810.0 850.0 900.0 -20.0% 850.0 na na na
BoA Securities 968.5 856.8 856.8 894.0 -20.6% 856.8 na na na
Consensus (Mean) 1076.6 995.5 1000.3 1004.9 -10.7% 1005.9 1133.2 1147.3 1164.2
High 1278.0 1250.0 1300.0 1250.0 1300.0 1250.0 1250.0 1250.0
Low 810.0 810.0 850.0 894.0 850.0 1016.3 1044.7 1078.3
US$ Gas Oil, Europe, Spot Price US$/tonne Gas Oil Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
1700 1300 1300
As of survey date
1500 1200 1200
Consensus
1300 1100 1100
1100 1000 1000
900 Gas Oil
900 900
700
Futures (ICE)
800 800
500
700 700
300 US$/tonne
600 600
100 Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
Ja n 2 0 1 8 Jan 20 1 9 Ja n 2 0 2 0 Ja n 2 0 2 1 Ja n 2 0 22 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024

OCTOBER 2022 NATURAL GAS
Natural Gas (US, Henry Hub) Forecasts, US$/MMBtu Nominal, Quarterly Averages, Annual Price Forecasts on Page 5
Survey Date Spot
(Oct. 17): US$ 6.453 Dec '22 Mar '23 Jun '23 Sep '23 % change Dec '23 Mar '24 Jun '24 Sep '24
from spot
BMO 7.877 8.610 9.000 7.000 8.5% 5.000 6.050 5.000 5.000
Moody's Analytics 8.861 7.887 7.298 6.976 8.1% 7.100 6.979 6.772 6.448
Investec 7.374 7.374 6.505 6.505 0.8% 5.330 5.330 4.669 4.669
Citigroup 9.000 7.000 6.000 5.600 -13.2% 4.000 5.400 5.400 5.400
Liberum Capital 6.127 5.827 5.647 5.507 -14.7% 5.407 5.307 5.207 5.107
ABN Amro 7.000 6.700 5.800 5.500 -14.8% 6.000 5.800 4.800 4.500
Commerzbank 7.000 6.500 6.000 5.500 -14.8% 5.500 na na na
Oxford Economics 8.933 7.843 6.012 5.278 -18.2% 4.725 4.608 4.600 4.509
Macquarie 7.300 7.000 5.000 4.750 -26.4% 5.250 3.916 3.950 3.988
UBS 6.820 5.830 4.680 4.730 -26.7% 5.150 4.810 4.370 4.440
JP Morgan 7.000 5.500 4.500 4.250 -34.1% 4.750 na na na
Goldman Sachs 7.680 7.620 4.150 4.150 -35.7% 4.170 3.970 3.550 3.550
Consensus (Mean) 7.230 6.688 5.690 5.343 -17.2% 5.230 5.325 4.964 4.872
High 9.000 8.610 9.000 7.400 7.500 7.600 7.600 7.600
Low 5.000 4.500 3.750 3.500 3.750 3.916 3.550 3.550
Asia LNG (Japan Korea Marker) Forecasts, US$/MMBtu Nominal, Quarterly Averages, Annual Price Forecasts on Page 5
Consensus (Mean) 44.714 40.532 42.524 44.103 26.8% 38.379 35.550 33.800 31.342
High 61.000 61.000 69.100 69.100 47.275 45.300 44.800 45.050
Low 35.000 25.400 30.000 32.000 27.000 22.000 20.000 20.000
EU Natural Gas Forecasts, Dutch TTF Euro/MWh Individual forecasts available in the Excel Spreadsheet Service
(Oct. 17): Eur 127.98 from spot
Consensus (Mean) 151.91 138.88 128.78 123.80 -3.3% 125.52 119.44 106.85 95.01
High 200.00 185.00 185.00 176.00 176.00 150.00 150.00 140.00
Low 100.00 85.00 75.00 50.00 50.00 84.77 82.38 70.00
UK Natural Gas Forecasts, UK pence/therm available in the Excel spreadsheet service.
US Natural Gas
US$/MMBtu Natural Gas Prices By Region Euro/MWh
Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
60.0 350
EU Natur al Gas 8 .0
(right s c ale) Energy Information
50.0 300
7 .0 Admin., USA, (Oct. 12)
As ia LNG 250
40.0 Consensus
(left s c ale) 6 .0
200
30.0
US Natu ral Gas (left s c ale) 5 .0
150
20.0 4 .0
NYMEX
100
Futures
As of survey date
10.0 50 3 .0
Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
0.0 0 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 20 24
2023 Supply Risks
US$/MMBtu Natural Gas Futures Daily High/Low/Close US$/MMBtu
² EU natural gas spiked again at the end of Sep-
90.0 90.0
tember, after damage to the NordStream pipe-
75.0 NYMEX LNG JKM 75.0 lines cut the supply route from Russia to Eu-
3 Month Futures, Close
rope. Gas storage efforts ahead of the winter
60.0 60.0
months have reduced the risk of immediate dis-
45.0 45.0 ruption. However, the real test will be how Eu-
rope copes without Russian gas in 2023.
30.0 30.0
NYMEX Henry Hub 3 Month ² Strains on refining capacity for middle distil-
15.0 Futures, Daily High/Low/Close 15.0 lates, exacerbated by industrial action in France,
have seen the price of gas oil (page 8) surge,
0.0 0.0
A pr 2022 May 2022 Jun 2022 Jul 2022 A ug 2022 Sep 2022 Oc t 2022 even as demand retreats.
COAL OCTOBER 2022
Nominal, Quarterly Averages, Annual Price Forecasts on Page 5
Consensus Price for Australian Coking Coal Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, Contract Price
Q4 2022: US$ 274.8 e
Q4 from Q4 2022
Macquarie 310.0 350.0 350.0 350.0 27.4% 350.0 350.0 350.0 350.0
Credit Suisse 300.0 320.0 360.0 340.0 23.7% 340.0 310.0 310.0 310.0
ANZ 290.0 315.0 310.0 285.0 3.7% 260.0 184.0 140.0 140.0
Liberum Capital 270.0 290.0 285.0 280.0 1.9% 270.0 260.0 250.0 245.0
Investec 255.8 255.8 260.0 260.0 -5.4% 270.0 270.0 280.0 280.0
Australia Dept of Industry 286.0 278.0 270.0 252.0 -8.3% 232.0 221.0 219.5 218.0
Morgan Stanley 300.0 325.0 300.0 250.0 -9.0% 225.0 225.0 200.0 200.0
UBS 275.0 300.0 275.0 225.0 -18.1% 200.0 225.0 200.0 175.0
Citigroup 250.0 250.0 230.0 220.0 -19.9% 210.0 na na na
BMO 285.2 260.0 220.0 195.0 -29.0% 177.5 167.5 160.0 160.0
Deutsche Bank 250.0 240.0 200.0 180.0 -34.5% 180.0 200.0 200.0 200.0
RBC Capital Markets 200.0 180.0 180.0 180.0 -34.5% 180.0 150.0 150.0 150.0
Consensus (Mean) 274.8 279.6 274.3 254.8 -7.3% 244.3 234.4 225.0 221.5
High 310.0 350.0 360.0 350.0 350.0 350.0 350.0 350.0
Low 200.0 180.0 180.0 180.0 177.5 150.0 140.0 140.0
Consensus Price for Australian Steaming Coal Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, Spot Price
Q4 2022: US$ 379.0 e
Q4 from Q4 2022
Investec 424.8 424.8 404.6 404.6 6.7% 357.0 357.0 300.0 300.0
Credit Suisse 450.0 400.0 380.0 360.0 -5.0% 360.0 300.0 300.0 300.0
ANZ 390.0 385.0 369.0 356.0 -6.1% 335.0 310.0 285.0 266.0
Macquarie 420.0 420.0 380.0 350.0 -7.7% 320.0 300.0 280.0 250.0
Morgan Stanley 450.0 375.0 300.0 250.0 -34.0% 200.0 175.0 150.0 125.0
BMO 410.8 340.0 250.0 220.0 -42.0% 220.0 190.0 150.0 150.0
Australia Dept of Industry 325.0 302.0 240.0 211.0 -44.3% 175.0 152.0 128.0 116.0
Deutsche Bank 350.0 350.0 200.0 200.0 -47.2% 200.0 130.0 130.0 130.0
ISGR 320.0 280.0 250.0 200.0 -47.2% 190.0 170.0 150.0 140.0
Citigroup 375.0 280.0 200.0 190.0 -49.9% 180.0 na na na
Liberum Capital 380.0 290.0 200.0 180.0 -52.5% 175.0 170.0 165.0 160.0
Consensus (Mean) 379.0 339.0 292.4 279.0 -26.4% 258.3 227.8 209.3 193.8
High 450.0 424.8 404.6 404.6 360.0 357.0 300.0 300.0
Low 225.0 200.0 200.0 180.0 175.0 120.0 120.0 116.0
Consensus Price for Australian Steaming Coal Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, Contract Price
Q4 2022: US$ 354.0 e 1 Individual forecasts available in the Excel spreadsheet.
1
Consensus (Mean) 354.0 332.6 288.1 264.6 -25.3% 258.9 272.8 230.3 212.8
High 425.0 375.0 412.0 412.0 412.0 412.0 353.0 353.0
Low 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 150.0 210.0 174.0 150.0
US$/metric Consensus Forecasts
tonne Coking Coal and Steaming Coal Prices
US$/tonne As of survey date
500
400
450
400 350
350 Aus tralian Cok ing Coal Australian Steaming
Coal (Spot) – Consensus
300 300
250
200 250
150
200
100 Australian Coking Coal
50 – Consensus
Australian Steam ing Coal Australian Steaming Coal (Contract) 150
Jan 2012 Jan (Spot)
2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 Jan 2020 Jan 2022
2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024

OCTOBER 2022 URANIUM & CARBON
Nominal, Quarterly Averages, Annual Price Forecasts on Page 5
Survey Date Spot Uranium U3O8 Forecasts, US$/lb
(Oct. 17): US$ 51.00
from spot
Morgan Stanley 50.00 52.00 55.00 60.00 17.6% 65.00 60.00 60.00 55.00
Liberum Capital 54.00 58.00 58.00 58.00 13.7% 58.00 56.00 56.00 56.00
UBS 50.00 55.00 55.00 55.00 7.8% 55.00 55.00 55.00 55.00
BMO 48.55 50.00 50.00 53.00 3.9% 53.00 53.00 50.00 52.00
Investec 50.28 50.28 52.00 52.00 2.0% 55.00 55.00 58.00 58.00
Consensus (Mean) 50.28 53.98 54.48 55.29 8.4% 56.37 54.17 54.17 53.75
High 55.00 70.00 67.50 65.00 65.00 60.16 60.20 60.23

Low 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00
US$ Uranium U3O8, Spot Price US$/lb Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
70
58
Uranium futures began trading on NYMEX in US$/lb As of survey date
60 May 2007 in an attempt to introduce greater price
56
transparency. Volume is thin due to off-market
trading and its specialised and limited use.
50 54
Consensus
52
40
NYMEX Futures
50
30
48
Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024
Survey Date Spot Carbon Prices, European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS),
(Oct. 17): EUR 67.5 Euro/tonne, Spot Price
from spot
ISGR 100.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 40.7% 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0
Liberum Capital 81.7 88.0 88.0 90.0 33.3% 90.0 90.0 90.0 88.0
P K Verleger 65.0 63.0 61.0 70.0 3.7% 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0
Macquarie 65.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 -3.7% 65.0 70.0 70.0 70.0
Consensus (Mean) 79.3 79.2 78.8 82.0 21.5% 84.0 83.8 85.0 85.8
High 100.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0
Low 65.0 63.0 61.0 65.0 65.0 70.0 70.0 70.0
Carbon, EU ETS, Spot Price Euro/tonne Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices

100 90
To cut emissions to 55% below 1990 levels by 2030, EUR/T As of survey date
80 the EC has tightened its Carbon Trading System, 85
including a border adjustment tax for imports. The Consensus
increase in the cost of ‘polluting’ globally is reflected in
60 80
a surge in the EU ETS spot price.
40 75
ICE Futures (EUA)
70
20
65
0
2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024
In the current fourth trading phase of the EU ETS, the EU Com- each tonne of CO2 emitted is required, which can either be used
mission sets a cap for the total amount of greenhouse gas emis- or freely traded on various exchanges. The overall emissions cap
sions generated by industries covered by the scheme, and ei- is set to be reduced by 2.2% each year between 2021-2030,
ther allocates or auctions off permits to cover these. A permit for progressively reducing the permits in circulation.

ALUMINIUM OCTOBER 2022
Survey Date Spot Price Aluminium Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, fob Nominal, Quarterly Averages
(Oct. 17): US$ 2239 Dec '22 Mar '23 Jun '23 Sep '23 % change Dec '23 Mar '24 Jun '24 Sep '24
from spot
BoA Securities 2500 2750 3250 3750 67.5% 4500 na na na
Citigroup 2500 2500 2700 3000 34.0% 3000 3300 3300 3300
Commerzbank 2200 2400 2600 2800 25.1% 2800 na na na
ISGR 2600 2800 2750 2700 20.6% 2700 2700 2650 2600
ANZ 2501 2540 2561 2661 18.8% 2641 2601 2601 2601
Goldman Sachs 2150 2300 2450 2650 18.4% 2850 na na na
Standard Chartered 2690 2680 2740 2650 18.4% 2780 2800 2800 na
RBC Capital Markets 2756 2646 2646 2646 18.2% 2646 2535 2535 2535
Bank Julius Baer 2500 2550 2550 2600 16.1% 2600 na na na
Australia Dept of Industry 2589 2576 2563 2555 14.1% 2545 2520 2505 2480
UBS 2205 2300 2400 2535 13.2% 2650 2756 2756 2756
Morgan Stanley 2800 2900 2700 2500 11.7% 2800 2800 2600 2600
Commonwealth Bank 2205 2094 2205 2425 8.3% 2646 2866 3086 3173
Credit Suisse 2540 2420 2420 2420 8.1% 2420 2860 2860 2860
JP Morgan 2250 2250 2350 2400 7.2% 2500 na na na
S&P G lobal Mkt Intel 2262 2229 2319 2351 5.0% 2361 2402 2433 2420
Macquarie 2250 2200 2300 2350 5.0% 2300 2250 2200 2250
Moody's Analytics 2374 2359 2358 2345 4.7% 2299 2220 2104 1997
Investec 2289 2289 2315 2315 3.4% 2425 2425 2535 2535
Oxford Economics 2400 2500 2400 2304 2.9% 2212 2201 2190 2201
BMO 2354 2300 2150 2300 2.7% 2400 2400 2400 2400
Deutsche Bank 2100 2100 2200 2300 2.7% 2300 2700 2700 2700
Pezco Economics 2324 2285 2257 2228 -0.5% 2199 2171 2144 2116
Prometeia 2423 2326 2229 2223 -0.7% 2230 2240 2265 2320
BDO Advisory 2250 2200 2180 2220 -0.8% 2270 2320 2350 2300
Capital Economics 2195 2020 2060 2100 -6.2% 2135 2158 2173 2188
Liberum Capital 2100 2100 2050 2000 -10.7% 1950 1900 1900 1900
Euromonitor International 2056 1889 1769 1716 -23.4% 1698 1692 1689 1691
Consensus (Mean) 2370 2375 2410 2466 10.1% 2531 2470 2468 2451
High 2800 2900 3250 3750 4500 3300 3300 3300
Low 2056 1889 1769 1716 1698 1692 1689 1691
Standard Deviation 203 245 287 361 482 358 370 382
US$/
metric tonne Aluminium Spot Price, London Metal Exchange (LME) Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
4000 2700
As of survey date
3500 2600
Consensus
3000 2500
2400
2500
2300
2000 LME Futures
2200
1500 US$/metric tonne
2100
Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 Jan 2020 Jan 2022 2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024
Aluminium 3-Month Futures Prices and Warehouse Stocks, LME Mulled Russian Metal Bans Lift Prices
US$/metric tonne, Daily High/Low/Close ² Aluminium prices have posted speculative
US$ tonnes, 000s
3800 900 gains in recent weeks, after the LME consid-
3600 800
ered a ban on Russian deliveries to its ware-
3400 3-Month Future Daily houses. Prices jumped by around $180/T on
700
3200 High/Low/Close (lhs) September 29 when news of the proposed
600
3000 measure first broke.
2800 500 ² This comes amid parallel US discussions of
2600 400 a ban on Russian Aluminum imports, in an
2400 attempt to stifle Moscow’s war efforts follow-
300
2200 LME Warehouse
Stocks, Daily (rhs) 200
ing attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.
2000
² Prices had previously been on a downwards
1800 100
trajectory amid weaker global demand, with
struggles in the transport and construction
World Aluminium Supply and Demand May 2022 sectors weighing on its prospects.
(in millions of tonnes) Consensus Forecasts
Aluminium: Futures Market: LME Pricing: US$/
World 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 tonne Contract Size: 25 tonnes Delivery Dates:
Supply 64.4 63.2 66.4 67.5 68.5 71.1 Daily for cash to 3 month contracts, Wednesdays
Demand 66.0 63.2 64.8 69.1 69.5 71.3 for 3 month to 6 month contracts; then every third
Balance -1.6 0.0 1.6 -1.5 -1.0 -0.2 Wednesday for 7 months out to 123 months. Con-
Historical Estimates Source: Australian Government Department of Industry
tracts Traded: 57,670,339 (2021).
OCTOBER 2022 ALUMINA & ALUMINIUM ALLOY
Survey Date Spot Price Nominal, Quarterly Averages
Alumina Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, fob
(Oct. 17): US$ 318.9
from spot
RBC Capital Markets 350.0 360.0 360.0 360.0 12.9% 360.0 360.0 360.0 360.0
UBS 340.0 350.0 350.0 350.0 9.7% 350.0 350.0 350.0 350.0
Investec 343.2 343.2 342.6 342.6 7.4% 358.9 358.9 375.2 375.2
Macquarie 335.0 320.0 330.0 325.0 1.9% 320.0 315.0 310.0 320.0
Morgan Stanley 325.0 320.0 320.0 320.0 0.3% 320.0 295.0 300.0 310.0
Liberum Capital 330.0 325.0 320.0 305.0 -4.4% 305.0 300.0 300.0 300.0
Credit Suisse 340.0 320.0 300.0 300.0 -5.9% 300.0 330.0 330.0 330.0
BMO 337.3 311.7 270.0 294.0 -7.8% 306.0 306.0 306.0 306.0
Consensus (Mean) 336.9 331.0 326.1 326.8 2.5% 329.2 328.3 328.4 329.5
High 350.0 360.0 360.0 360.0 360.0 360.0 375.2 375.2

Low 323.0 311.7 270.0 294.0 300.0 295.0 300.0 300.0
Alumina, Metallurgical Grade, Spot Price Alumina Consensus Forecasts v Futures

US$ US$/metric tonne US$/metric tonne
800 As of survey date
350
700
340
600
Consensus
500 330
400 320
300
310
200 LME Futures
300
100
Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 Jan 2020 Jan 2022
2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024
Alumina is derived from bauxite ore and is used to produce primary alu- World Production of Alumina
minium at a ratio of two tonnes of alumina per tonne of aluminium. Prices can
be linked to the LME primary aluminium price. (130 million tonnes, 2018)
Aluminium Alloy prices provide a reference basis for the secondary alu- Producer % of world total
minium market. Futures Market: LME Pricing: US$/tonne Contract Size: 1. China 55.4%
20 tonnes Delivery Dates: Daily for cash to 3 month contracts, Wednesdays 2. Australia 14.6%
for 3 month to 6 month contracts; then every third Wednesday for 7 months 3. Brazil 6.1%
out to 27 months. Contracts Traded: 7,044 (2021). 4. India 5.0%
Aluminium Alloy, Spot Price, LME Aluminium vs Aluminium Alloy, Spot Price Differential
US$/metric tonne US$/metric tonne
2950 1200
2700
Price on Survey
1000
Date: US$1750
2450 800
2200 600
1950 400
1700 200
1450 0
1200 -200
950 -400
Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 Jan 2020 Jan 2022 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 Jan 2020 Jan 2022

COPPER OCTOBER 2022
Survey Date Spot Price Copper, Grade A, Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, fob Nominal, Quarterly Averages
(Oct. 17): US$ 7710 D ec '22 M ar '23 Jun '23 Sep '23 % change D ec '23 Mar '24 Jun '24 Sep '24
from spot
G o ld m an Sach s 7400 7750 8250 9200 19.3% 10000 na na na
ANZ 8183 8442 8761 9121 18.3% 8782 8802 8882 8623
ISG R 8000 8400 8800 9000 16.7% 9000 8800 8600 8300
Co m m erz ban k 7200 7500 8000 8500 10.2% 9000 na na na
Au stralia Dep t o f In d ustry 8124 8373 8511 8476 9.9% 8452 8222 8259 8330
RBC Cap ital Markets 8818 8267 8267 8267 7.2% 8267 8267 8267 8267
Ban k Ju liu s Baer 7500 7750 8250 8250 7.0% 8750 na na na
Eco n In telligen ce Un it 7540 8050 7940 8250 7.0% 8100 8300 8000 7900
Citigro u p 7000 6600 7000 8000 3.8% 9000 9500 9500 9500
Ban co d e Cred ito d el Peru 7606 7496 7496 7937 2.9% 7937 8378 8378 na
Co m m on w ealth Bank 7385 6834 7275 7716 0.1% 7826 7937 8047 8157
Stan d ard Chartered 7850 7960 7880 7710 0.0% 7650 8000 8000 na
Pez co Eco n o m ics 7629 7667 7686 7705 -0.1% 7724 7757 7795 7834
Pro m eteia 7857 8360 7849 7688 -0.3% 8016 8050 8138 8181
In vestec 7762 7762 7606 7606 -1.4% 7716 7716 8047 8047
Mo o d y's An alytics 7759 7364 7507 7527 -2.4% 7358 7086 6793 6566
S&P G lo b al Mkt In tel 7510 7411 7440 7523 -2.4% 7766 7917 7928 7970
Bo A Secu rities 7500 6500 7000 7500 -2.7% 8000 na na na
So ciete G en erale 8500 8000 7500 7500 -2.7% 7000 na na na
Cap ital Eco n om ics 7610 7095 7285 7475 -3.0% 7660 7783 7848 7913
BMO 7761 7900 7100 7250 -6.0% 7300 7300 7500 7500
O xfo rd Eco n om ics 7400 7000 7100 7200 -6.6% 7300 7355 7410 7465
Deu tsch e Bank 7800 7500 7000 7200 -6.6% 7500 8800 8800 8800
Macq u arie 7400 7100 7200 7200 -6.6% 7400 7500 7600 7600
Mo rg an Stan ley 7800 7500 7250 7000 -9.2% 7800 8500 8500 9000
JP Mo rg an 6500 6500 6700 7000 -9.2% 7300 na na na
L iberu m Cap ital 6800 6750 6700 6680 -13.4% 6660 6650 6640 6630
UBS 6834 6393 6614 6614 -14.2% 6834 7716 7716 7716
Credit Su isse 7500 6840 6840 6400 -17.0% 6400 6620 6620 6620
Eu rom on ito r In tern atio n al 6963 6058 5457 5168 -33.0% 5038 4946 4875 4828
Co n sensu s (Mean ) 7583 7437 7475 7622 -1.1% 7785 7829 7839 7807
Hig h 8818 8442 8800 9200 10000 9500 9500 9500
Low 6500 6058 5457 5168 5038 4946 4875 4828
Stan d ard Deviatio n 488 669 713 842 939 918 929 988
US$ Copper, Spot Price, London Metal Exchange (LME) Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
7900
US$/metric tonne
10000 7800
Consensus
9000 7700
8000 7600
LME Futures
7000 7500
6000
7400
COMEX Futures
7300
Copper 3-Month Futures Prices and Warehouse Stocks, LME LME Bans Russian Producer UMMC
US$/metric tonne, Daily High/Low/Close tonnes,
² Copper has experienced high volatility as un-
US$ 000s certainty over the state of global demand per-
11000 225
sists. Prices saw a dramatic slump of almost
10500
200 US$400/T on September 23, as many ad-
10000
LME Warehouse Stocks, 175 vanced nations reported weak economic data
9500
Daily (rhs)
150
whilst continuing on a rate tightening path.
9000
8500
² However, prices saw some climb back fol-
125
lowing the LME’s ban on metal deliveries from
8000
100 Ural Metal & Metallurgical Co. - Russia’s sec-
7500
3-Month Future, 75 ond largest copper producer. This was in line
7000
Daily High/Low/Close (lhs) with UK sanctions placed on its leadership
6500 50
A pr 2022 May 2022 Jun 2022 Jul 2022 A ug 2022 Sep 2022 Oc t 2022 due to ties to the Kremlin. Markets reacted to
the subsequent tightening of supply.
World Copper Supply and Demand May 2022 Copper: Futures Market: LME Pricing: US$/tonne
(in millions of tonnes) Consensus Forecasts Contract Size: 25 tonnes Delivery Dates: Daily for
World 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 cash to 3 month contracts, Wednesdays for 3 month
Supply 24.1 24.1 24.5 24.8 25.2 26.0 to 6 month contracts; then every third Wednesday
Demand 24.5 24.4 25.0 25.3 25.2 25.8 for 7 months out to 123 months. Contracts Traded:
29,691,402 (2021). US Futures Market: COMEX
Balance -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 Pricing: USc/lb Lot Size: 25,000lbs Deliverability:
Historical Estimates Source: International Copper Study Group (ICSG) 24 consecutive months.
OCTOBER 2022 NICKEL
Survey Date Spot Price Nickel Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, fob Nominal, Quarterly Averages
from spot
ISGR 26000 28000 28500 26000 21.2% 24000 24000 22000 21000
Investec 23424 23424 22707 22707 5.8% 22046 22046 22046 22046
Econ Intelligence Unit 22200 22450 23650 22400 4.4% 22000 21800 22000 22500
ANZ 23605 23406 22886 22325 4.1% 21705 20604 19404 18705
Citigroup 22000 20000 20000 22000 2.5% 19000 19000 19000 19000
Standard Chartered 21850 21600 22300 21300 -0.7% 21000 20000 20000 na
Australia Dept of Industry 22000 22000 21500 21000 -2.1% 20500 20250 20000 20250
Macquarie 22000 21000 21000 21000 -2.1% 21000 21000 21000 21000
BMO 22114 25000 21000 20000 -6.8% 20000 20000 18000 18000
BoA Securities 20000 17500 17500 20000 -6.8% 20000 na na na
UBS 23148 22046 20944 19841 -7.5% 19841 18739 18739 18739
Oxford Economics 20730 19900 19502 19112 -10.9% 18730 18871 19012 19155
JP Morgan 19000 18000 19000 19000 -11.4% 20000 na na na
BDO Advisory 22300 21800 21300 18900 -11.9% 18500 18200 17900 18000
Pezco Economics 19201 18692 18785 18878 -12.0% 18972 18844 18607 18369
Goldman Sachs 18000 18000 19000 18600 -13.3% 18400 18000 18000 18000
Morgan Stanley 19500 19000 19000 18500 -13.8% 18500 18000 18000 18000
Deutsche Bank 20000 20000 19000 18000 -16.1% 18000 20000 20000 20000
Prometeia 21950 19633 18026 16385 -23.6% 15818 15979 16227 16786
S&P G lobal Mkt Intel 21614 22082 19657 15719 -26.7% 16876 18470 20197 21797
Liberum Capital 18000 16500 16000 15500 -27.8% 15200 15400 15400 15400
Credit Suisse 19840 17640 17640 15425 -28.1% 15425 14340 14340 14340
Consensus (Mean) 21369 20809 20447 19941 -7.1% 19683 19270 19128 19133
High 26000 28000 28500 26000 25000 24000 22875 23325
Low 18000 16500 16000 15356 14905 14340 14340 14321
US$ Nickel Spot Price, London Metal Exchange (LME) Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
50000 23000
As of survey date
22000
40000
LME Futures
21000
30000
Consensus
20000
20000
19000
18000
0
2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024
Price Under Pressure Amid Weak Demand
Nickel 3-Month Futures Prices and Warehouse Stocks, LME ² Nickel saw prices slide this past month on
US$/metric tonne, Daily High/Low/Close the back of broad strength in the US Dollar,
US$ tonnes weak manufacturing data in Europe, and grow-
40,000 100000
ing global recession fears. The spot price fell
35,000
90000 to US$21455/T on October 17.
80000
² A floor was placed under price declines amid
30,000
LME Warehouse uncertainty over Russian supplies to the LME.
Stocks, Daily (rhs)
70000 However, support was more limited compared
25,000
60000
to other affected metals, with Nickel supply
3-Month Future Daily from other sources deemed to be plentiful.
20,000
High/Low/ Close (lhs) 50000
² Reports suggest that many Chinese smelt-
15,000 40000 ers are returning to capacity after wrestling
A pr 2022 May 2022 Jun 2022 Jul 2022 A ug 2022 Sep 2022 Oc t 2022 with Covid-related lockdowns for much of this
year.
World Nickel Supply and Demand May 2022 Nickel prices are closely related to demand from
(in thousands of tonnes) Consensus Forecasts stainless steel producers who account for about
World 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 two-thirds of total demand. Futures Market: LME
Supply 2184 2369 2490 2608 2803 2997 Pricing: US$/tonne Contract Size: 6 tonnes Deliv-
Demand 2328 2405 2390 2776 2844 2930 ery Dates: Daily for cash to 3 month contracts,
Wednesdays for 3 month to 6 month contracts; then
Balance -144 -36 100 -168 -41.2 67.5 every third Wednesday for 7 months out to 63
Historical Estimates Source: International Nickel Study Group (INSG) months. Contracts Traded: 16,774,630 (2021).
LEAD OCTOBER 2022
Survey Date Spot Price Lead Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, fob Nominal, Quarterly Averages
(Oct. 17): US$ 2075
from spot
Pezco Economics 2315 2380 2350 2320 11.8% 2290 2261 2233 2204
Citigroup 1900 1900 2100 2200 6.0% 2200 2100 2100 2100
S&P Global Mkt Intel 2104 2147 2162 2172 4.7% 2173 2176 2176 2180
UBS 1940 1984 2028 2116 2.0% 2183 2249 2315 2315
Banco de Credito del Peru 1984 2094 2094 2094 0.9% 2094 2006 2006 na
Prometeia 1930 2124 2091 2045 -1.4% 2115 2122 2160 2198
Econ Intelligence Unit 1940 1985 1910 2045 -1.4% 2060 2100 2080 2050
Commonwealth Bank 2094 1984 2028 2028 -2.3% 2050 2050 2050 2059
Investec 1922 1922 2028 2028 -2.3% 2116 2116 2205 2205
Morgan Stanley 2000 1900 1900 2000 -3.6% 2000 2000 2000 2000
Standard Chartered 2000 2050 2030 2000 -3.6% 2010 2015 2015 na
Commerzbank 1900 2000 2000 1900 -8.4% 1900 na na na
Liberum Capital 1850 1850 1850 1900 -8.4% 1900 1890 1890 1890
Credit Suisse 2244 2112 2112 1830 -11.8% 1830 2088 2088 2088
Oxford Economics 1850 1800 1805 1811 -12.7% 1816 1822 1827 1833
ANZ 1921 1870 1820 1801 -13.2% 1801 1801 1801 1801
BMO 1976 2000 1800 1800 -13.3% 1700 1700 1500 1500
Deutsche Bank 2100 1800 1800 1800 -13.3% 1800 2000 2000 2000
Macquarie 1850 1820 1800 1800 -13.3% 1850 1900 1900 1900
Consensus (Mean) 1978 1957 1953 1950 -6.0% 1982 1973 1969 1962
High 2315 2380 2350 2320 2297 2261 2315 2315
Low 1734 1578 1476 1425 1403 1390 1380 1374
US$ Lead Spot Price, London Metal Exchange (LME) Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
2100
2800
2050
2600
LME Futures
2400
2000
2200
2000
1950
1800
Consensus
1900
2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024
Lead 3-Month Future Prices and Warehouse Stocks,LME Prices Rebound on Supply Shortfall
US$/metric tonne, Daily High/Low/Close tonnes, ² Despite soft global demand, lead prices have
US$ 000s firmed in recent weeks as energy-cost related
2600 50
production cut backs intensified at producers
2500 3-Month Future Daily
across Europe. This has led to a drawdown of
2400 High/Low/Close (lhs) 45
2300
inventories at LME warehouses, which hit a
2200 40 multi-decade low at the end of September.
2100 ² Prices rose to US$2075/T on October 17, up
2000 35 from US$1880/T a month prior, making lead one
1900 of the best performers in the metals complex in
1800
LME Warehouse
30 recent weeks.
1700
Stocks, Daily (rhs) ² Our panel sees limited potential for further gains,
1600 25
however, with prices set to fall -6.0% from the
A pr 2022 May 2022 Jun 2022 Jul 2022 A ug 2022 Sep 2022 Oc t 2022
current spot rate over the next 12 months.
World Lead Supply and Demand May 2022 The price of Lead, which is used mainly for batter-
(in millions of tonnes) Consensus Forecasts ies, can be related to that of zinc as the metals are
World 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 co-produced. Futures Market: LME Pricing: US$/
Supply 12.2 12.3 11.9 12.3 13.1 13.6 tonne Contract Size: 25 tonnes Delivery Dates:
Demand 12.3 12.2 11.7 12.2 12.6 12.6 Daily for cash to 3 month contracts, Wednesdays
for 3 month to 6 month contracts; then every third
Balance 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 1.0 Wednesday for 7 months out to 63 months.
Historical Estimates Source: International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) Contracts Traded: 10,459,844 (2021).
OCTOBER 2022 ZINC
Survey Date Spot Price Zinc, Special High Grade, Forecasts, US$/MT, fob Nominal, Quarterly Averages
from spot
Goldman Sachs 3400 3550 3650 3750 29.2% 4000 na na na
ANZ 3260 3421 3560 3540 21.9% 3441 3431 3241 3081
Citigroup 3600 3400 3200 3500 20.6% 4000 3500 3500 3500
ISGR 3400 3600 3400 3200 10.2% 3000 2800 2650 2600
UBS 3250 3250 3100 3100 6.8% 3100 2750 2750 2750
Morgan Stanley 3850 3800 3500 3000 3.3% 2800 2700 2700 2700
JP Morgan 2800 2800 2900 3000 3.3% 3200 na na na
Investec 3190 3190 2976 2976 2.5% 3086 3086 3307 3307
Pezco Economics 3070 3038 2999 2961 2.0% 2923 2886 2849 2813
Capital Economics 2950 2783 2848 2913 0.3% 2973 3013 3038 3063
Credit Suisse 3740 3300 3300 2860 -1.5% 2860 2860 2860 2860
S&P Global Mkt Intel 3178 3043 2918 2833 -2.4% 2742 2699 2655 2616
Liberum Capital 2900 2800 2800 2750 -5.3% 2750 2750 2750 2600
Prometeia 3140 3030 2782 2735 -5.8% 2891 2912 2872 2837
BDO Advisory 3100 2900 2800 2700 -7.0% 2650 2600 2550 2600
Deutsche Bank 3000 3000 2600 2600 -10.4% 2800 3000 3000 3000
Macquarie 3100 2900 2800 2600 -10.4% 2600 2700 2700 2700
BMO 3275 3000 2600 2500 -13.9% 2500 2500 2400 2400
Consensus (Mean) 3189 3120 3046 3024 4.2% 3042 2887 2859 2811
High 3850 3800 3650 3800 4000 3500 3500 3500
Low 2750 2442 2216 2096 2034 1989 1953 1925
US$ Zinc, Special High Grade Spot Price (LME) Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices
5000 3500
US$/metric tonne
4500
4000 3250
3500
Consensus
3000
3000
2500
2750
2000
LME Futures
2500
Zinc 3-Month Futures Prices and Warehouse Stocks, LME Weak Demand Offset By Tighter Supply
US$/metric tonne, Daily High/Low/Close ² While zinc prices broadly declined through the
US$ tonnes,
000s latter half of September, they received a boost
4600 160 on news that the LME will ban metal originat-
4400 3-Month Future Daily
High/Low/Close (lhs) 140
ing from Russia’s UMMC, after its manage-
4200
ment was placed under sanctions. Prices had
4000
3800
120 fallen as low as US$2828/T on September 28
3600 100
prior to the move, but have since risen to
3400 US$2903/T on our survey date.
3200
80 ² These developments come amid already low
3000 LME warehouse stocks for the metal, and con-
LME Warehouse 60
2800 Stocks, Daily (rhs) tinued pressure on European smelters to re-
2600 40 duce production as surging energy prices dent
A pr 2022 May 2022 Jun 2022 Jul 2022 A ug 2022 Sep 2022 Oct 2022
producer profits.
World Zinc Supply and Demand May 2022 Zinc’s primary use is in galvanising steel. Futures
(in millions of tonnes) Consensus Forecasts Market: LME Pricing: US$/tonne Contract Size:
World 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 25 tonnes (+/- 2%) Delivery Dates: Daily for cash
Supply 13.2 13.5 13.8 13.8 14.0 14.5 to 3 month contracts, Wednesdays for 3 month to 6
Demand 13.7 13.8 13.3 14.0 14.3 14.4 month contracts; then every third Wednesday for 7
Balance -0.6 -0.3 0.5 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 months out to 63 months. Contracts Traded:
Historical Estimates Source: International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) 22,040,793 (2021).
STEEL OCTOBER2022
OCTOBER 2007
Nominal, Quarterly Averages
Survey Date Spot Price Hot Rolled Coil (Europe, Domestic) Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, fob
(Oct. 17): US$ 755.0 e
from spot
ISGR 865.0 900.0 850.0 800.0 6.0% 760.0 740.0 700.0 690.0
S&P Global Mkt Intel 778.0 752.1 779.3 781.8 3.5% 777.8 796.6 784.0 795.9
MEPS 680.0 700.0 780.0 770.0 2.0% 810.0 850.0 900.0 890.0
Macquarie 625.0 615.0 635.0 665.0 -11.9% 675.0 715.0 715.0 765.0
Liberum Capital 704.0 677.6 660.0 646.8 -14.3% 638.0 629.2 620.4 611.6
Consensus (Mean) 727.8 721.5 714.3 693.3 -8.2% 688.6 702.3 696.3 696.6
High 865.0 900.0 850.0 800.0 810.0 850.0 900.0 890.0

Low 625.0 615.0 608.5 581.0 554.8 547.8 542.1 536.5
Survey Date Spot Price Hot Rolled Coil (USA, Domestic) Forecasts, US$/short ton, fob
(Oct. 17): US$ 830.0 e Dec '22 Mar '23 Jun '23 Sep '23 % change Dec '23 Mar '24 Jun '24 Sep '24
from spot
1
Consensus (Mean) 779.7 760.8 762.3 744.2 -10.3% 731.8 736.6 730.3 721.7
High 844.0 843.7 850.0 843.7 852.8 900.0 920.0 910.0
Low 720.0 698.5 663.9 630.8 599.2 590.2 581.4 572.7
Survey Date Spot Price Hot Rolled Coil (China, Domestic) Forecasts, US$/metric tonne, fob
(Oct. 17): US$ 490.0 e Dec '22 Mar '23 Jun '23 Sep '23 % change Dec '23 Mar '24 Jun '24 Sep '24
from spot
1
Consensus (Mean) 532.1 542.1 555.0 559.8 14.2% 562.1 564.2 567.4 568.3
High 570.0 590.0 610.0 610.0 610.0 613.1 620.0 630.0
Low 478.5 487.7 505.3 515.7 514.0 506.3 497.6 488.8
1
Individual forecasts available in the Excel spreadsheet.
Steel Prices Hit a Floor

Steel – Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) Prices (Estimates from MEPS)
² Global steel prices have seen little movement
US$/tonne this past month, as weak demand prevents
2000 producers from being able to pass along higher
1 metric tonne = 1.1023 short tons
1750 costs caused by the global energy crisis. This
HRC - Europe situation has been exacerbated by the soar-
1500
(metric tonne) ing value of the US dollar, which has the ef-
1250 HRC - China
fect of raising local currency costs for purchas-
(metric tonne)
1000 HRC - USA ers in foreign markets, acting as a further con-
(short ton) straint on demand.
750
² News of China’s US$146bn stimulus package
500
has done little to lift sentiment for the local
250 market, which has been severely hindered
Steel Scrap - USA (s hort ton)
0 these past few months by a falloff in the prop-
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan erty sector, amid soaring debt burdens and
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
funding concerns that have been aggravated
by consumer boycotts.
Steel Production and Consumption (2018) Steel Prices are generally set in contracts be-
tween major producers and their clients. How-
Producers % of world total Consumers % of world total ever, the London Metal Exchange offers a
1. China 51.3 1. China 48.8 number of steel billet contracts for delivery to lo-
2. India 5.9 2. United States 5.9 cations across Europe, Asia and North America.
3. Japan 5.8 3. India 5.6 While there are many varieties of steel, Hot Rolled
4. United States 4.8 4. Japan 3.8 Coil (HRC) is a commonly referenced price, but
regional complexities prevent the emergence of
EU 9.2 EU 9.9 a clear benchmark at present.
OCTOBER 2022 IRON ORE
Consensus Price for North China Fines Iron Ore Forecasts, US$/dry metric tonne, cfr
Q4 2022: US$100.24 e
Q3 from Q4 2022
Credit Suisse 130.00 130.00 120.00 120.00 19.7% 110.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
BMO 103.13 115.00 120.00 110.00 9.7% 90.00 90.00 100.00 100.00
Citigroup 125.00 125.00 115.00 105.00 4.7% 100.00 na na na
Investec 102.15 102.15 105.00 105.00 4.7% 108.00 108.00 105.00 105.00
ANZ 111.00 112.00 107.00 102.00 1.8% 97.00 95.00 95.00 95.00
Commonwealth Bank 90.00 85.00 95.00 100.00 -0.2% 95.00 90.00 85.00 79.00
Deutsche Bank 100.00 110.00 110.00 100.00 -0.2% 110.00 110.00 110.00 110.00
Macquarie 90.00 90.00 95.00 100.00 -0.2% 110.00 105.00 105.00 105.00
S&P Global Mkt Intel 97.00 100.00 97.00 95.00 -5.2% 100.63 98.00 96.28 90.34
UBS 95.00 95.00 100.00 95.00 -5.2% 85.00 80.00 80.00 80.00
Pezco Economics 100.07 98.07 96.11 94.18 -6.0% 92.30 90.45 88.64 86.87
Morgan Stanley 95.00 120.00 130.00 90.00 -10.2% 80.00 100.00 80.00 70.00
Liberum Capital 90.00 100.00 85.00 80.00 -20.2% 80.00 85.00 90.00 90.00
Consensus (Mean) 100.24 102.75 102.06 97.34 -2.9% 94.92 91.25 89.87 88.06
High 130.00 130.00 130.00 130.00 130.00 110.00 110.00 110.00
Low 80.00 82.63 76.46 73.84 72.50 68.75 66.25 63.75
Consensus Price for Australian Fines Iron Ore Forecasts, US$/dry metric tonne, fob
Q4 2022: US$ 87.75 e Dec '22 Mar '23 Jun '23 Sep '23 % change Dec '23 Mar '24 Jun '24 Sep '24
Q4 from Q4 2022
Consensus (Mean)1 87.75 93.11 92.97 87.44 -0.4% 83.51 82.44 79.44 77.26
High 118.00 118.00 120.22 108.00 99.50 99.50 97.00 97.00
Low 66.41 71.41 71.41 71.20 67.50 61.41 61.41 60.22
Q4 2022: US$ 90.86 e Australian Lump Iron Ore Forecasts, US$/dry metric tonne, fob
Consensus (Mean) 1 90.86 99.41 101.67 94.96 4.5% 93.59 96.56 93.85 91.95
High 103.93 126.22 135.22 110.70 116.78 116.78 115.90 115.90
Low 74.16 79.16 79.16 79.16 79.16 69.16 69.16 69.16
1
Brazil fines and Individual forecasts available in the Excel spreadsheet service.
Consensus Forecast Prices
US$/T As of survey date
Until April 2014, Iron ore was traded in world markets under contracts, with
110
prices set by negotiation between iron ore producers and steel manufacturers. China Fines,
Three suppliers, Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton account for most ocean trade cfr
in iron ore, of which China remains by far the largest consumer. Fines are the 100 Aust. Lump, fob
most heavily traded category, while lump has generally traded at a premium
price. The annual benchmark price system has been dropped in favour of
90
quarterly prices based on prior average daily spot prices.
US$ Fines and Lump Iron Ore Prices

80
US$ per dry metric tonne
220 Aust. Fines, fob
Australia Lump
200 70
Spot Mar 2023 Sep 2023 Mar 2024 Sep 2024
180
North China Fines
160
Baltic Capesize Index of Shipping Rates
140 11000
120 9000
100 7000
80 5000
60 3000
Brazil Fines
40 1000
20 -1000
ADDITIONAL METALS OCTOBER2022
OCTOBER 2007
Forecasts for the metals shown on this and the next page are nominal, quarterly averages and were provided to us by the
following leading commodity price forecasters:
ANZ Bank of America Securities BMO
Capital Economics Citigroup Commonwealth Bank
Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank Economist Intelligence Unit
Euromonitor Liberum Macquarie
Morgan Stanley Oxford Economics Pezco Economics
Prometeia RBC Capital Markets Standard Chartered
UBS
Individual panellist forecasts for the minerals below and others are in the Excel spreadsheet.
OCTOBER2022
OCTOBER 2007
US$/T
50000 Tin has its physical spot market
TIN (Nominal, Quarterly Averages)
centred in Kuala Lumpur with the
Forecast Range
US$/metric Consensus % change 40000 LME recognised as the principal
tonne (Mean) from spot High Low hedging market.
Tin, Spot Price,
Spot price 19675 LME, fob
13.6% 27000 18903 30000 Futures Market: LME Pricing:
Dec 2022 22360
14.0% 29800 17011 US$/tonne Contract Size: 5
Mar 2023 22425
16.0% 31808 15594 tonnes (+/- 2%) Delivery Options:
Jun 2023 22815 20000
Sep 2023 23142 17.6% 34208 14769 Daily for cash to 3 month contracts,
Dec 2023 23702 20.5% 36808 14295 Wednesdays for 3 month to 6
Mar 2024 23451 19.2% 36208 13954 10000 month contracts; then every third
Jun 2024 23424 19.1% 33808 13680 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Wednesday for 7 months out to 15
17.5% 32407 13480 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 months.
Sep 2024 23116
US$/lb
COBALT (Nominal, Quarterly Averages)
50
Cobalt, principally used as a su-
Forecast Range per alloying agent because of its
Consensus % change Cobalt,
40
anti-corrosive properties, is a by-
US$/lb (Mean) from spot High Low Spot Price,
fob product of nickel. High demand
Spot price 26.45 has come from electric car mak-
30
Dec 2022 25.49 -3.6% 32.50 21.00 ers. The LME launched futures
Mar 2023 24.82 -6.2% 30.00 20.97 contracts in cobalt in 2010.
20
Jun 2023 24.67 -6.7% 30.00 19.96
-6.9% 28.00 18.53 Futures Market: LME Pricing:
Sep 2023 24.64 10
-3.6% 30.00 18.62
US$/tonne Contract Size: 1 tonne
Dec 2023 25.49
Delivery Options: 1 tonne lots in
Mar 2024 26.36 -0.3% 35.00 19.01 0 100-500kg drums of uniform size
Jun 2024 26.48 0.1% 35.00 19.76 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
and weight.
Sep 2024 27.00 2.1% 40.00 20.00
US$/kg
LITHIUM – CARBONATE 80
Lithium Carbonate Lithium Carbonate (battery
(Nominal, Quarterly Averages) Battery Grade grade) has the highest electric out-
(min 99.5%, Li2CO3 Battery
Consensus % change Forecast Range put per unit weight of any battery
Grade, cif, China, Japan and
US$/kg (Mean) from spot High Low 60 South Korea)
material.
Spot price 75.35 Lithium-based batteries are used
Dec 2022 65.75 -12.7% 70.00 60.00 in applications such as electric ve-
40
Mar 2023 56.25 -25.3% 60.00 45.00 hicles. The largest producers are
Jun 2023 53.75 -28.7% 60.00 41.00 Australia, Chile and Argentina.
Sep 2023 47.25 -37.3% 58.00 36.00 20
Dec 2023 39.25 -47.9% 57.00 30.00 LITHIUM HYDROXIDE
(min 56.5%, LiOH.H2O Battery
Mar 2024 31.13 -58.7% 45.00 22.50
0 Grade, cif, China, Japan and S. Ko-
Jun 2024 29.75 -60.5% 44.00 20.00
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan rea) forecasts can be found in the
Sep 2024 28.38 -62.3% 43.00 17.50 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Excel spreadsheet.
OCTOBER 2022 ADDITIONAL METALS
US$/T A slowdown in brine operations in
LITHIUM – SPODUMENE 6000
Lithium,
(Nominal, Quarterly Averages) South America has meant that the
Forecast Range Spodumene
US$/metric Consensus % change 5000 bulk of new lithium capacity is
tonne (Mean) from spot High Low derived from hard rock mines.
4000
Spot price 5290
Dec 2022 4870 -7.9% 6500 3000 Spodumene (Ore, min 5-6%, Li20,
3000 cif, China), a pyroxene mineral
Mar 2023 4149 -21.6% 5247 3000
consisting of lithium aluminium
Jun 2023 3952 -25.3% 5000 2746 2000
inosilicate, provides the largest
Sep 2023 3331 -37.0% 4000 2138 proportion of all mineral-derived
1000
Dec 2023 2667 -49.6% 3513 1888 lithium.
Mar 2024 2325 -56.1% 2767 1731 0 Futures: Futures contract for
Jun 2024 2200 -58.4% 2705 1497 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Lithium Hydroxide CIF launched
Sep 2024 2051 -61.2% 2643 1263 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 by the LME on July 19, 2021.
(Nominal, Quarterly Averages) US$/dmtu Manganese, Spot Price Manganese is not exchange-
MANGANESE 12.0
Forecast Range (1/100 of a tonne) of traded so prices are established
US$/metric Consensus % change 44% Manganese Ore by negotiation between buyers
10.0
tonne unit (Mean) from spot High Low and sellers. Negotiations occur in
Spot price 4.410 8.0 line with the beginning of the
Dec 2022 5.427 23.1% 5.800 4.700 Japanese fiscal year in April. Fol-
20.8% 6.220 4.600 6.0
Mar 2023 5.329 lowing the setting of prices with
Jun 2023 5.244 18.9% 6.220 4.500 4.0 Japanese manufacturing
Sep 2023 5.280 19.7% 6.220 4.500 companies, similar settlement
Dec 2023 5.325 20.7% 6.220 4.500 2.0 prices are set worldwide.
Mar 2024 5.109 15.8% 5.500 4.400 The price is based upon a bench-
0.0
Jun 2024 5.109 15.8% 5.500 4.400 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan mark ore of 44% manganese con-
Sep 2024 5.066 14.9% 5.500 4.400 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 tent, Cif, Tianjin, China.
(Nominal, Quarterly Averages) US$/lb Molybdenum is principally used as

MOLYBDENUM 22
Forecast Range an alloying agent in steel. As a by-
Consensus % change 20 product of copper, production costs
US$/lb (Mean) 18 Molybdenum,
from spot High Low
Spot Price, fob
are low. Prices can be influenced
Spot price 17.95 16 by demand for nickel and stainless
Dec 2022 16.21 -9.7% 17.76 15.00 14 steel, as well as molybdenum
Mar 2023 15.62 -13.0% 19.10 13.88 12 roasting capacity.
Jun 2023 15.03 -16.3% 19.10 12.00 10 Futures Market: LME (since Feb-
Sep 2023 15.00 -16.4% 19.10 12.00 8 ruary 2010) Pricing: US$/tonne
Dec 2023 14.85 -17.3% 19.10 10.80 6 Contract Size: 6 tonnes Mo (+/-5%
Mar 2024 13.42 -25.3% 16.30 10.60 4 (Mo content 57-63%) Delivery Op-
Jun 2024 13.11 -27.0% 16.40 10.60 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan tions: 10 tonnes (RMC), deliverable
Sep 2024 13.10 -27.0% 16.50 10.60 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 in 200 or 250kg drums.
RUTILE (Nominal, Quarterly Averages) US$/T, fob

Mineral sand prices are principally
1600
Forecast Range determined by derived demand.
US$/metric Consensus % change Rutile, Rutile is used to make titanium di-
1400
tonne (Mean) from spot High Low Bulk Spot oxide (it is approximately 95% TiO2
Spot price 1285 e 1200 Price
in its mineral form), which can be
Dec 2022 1285 0.0% 1650 1100 used to make titanium or as a white
0.0% 1600 1100 1000
Mar 2023 1285 pigment in papers, plastics and
Jun 2023 1265 -1.6% 1500 1100 800 paints and cosmetics.
Sep 2023 1253 -2.5% 1450 1100
Dec 2023 1240 -3.5% 1400 1100 600 ILMENITE is mined alongside
Mar 2024 1253 -2.5% 1400 1100 rutile and is also used to make tita-
400
Jun 2024 1263 -1.8% 1400 1100 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
nium dioxide. Forecasts can be
Sep 2024 1263 -1.8% 1400 1100 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 found in the Excel spreadsheet.
US$/T
ZIRCON (Nominal, Quarterly Averages)
2000
The price of Zircon (mainly used
Forecast Range Zircon, in ceramics and tiles) is set under
US$/metric Consensus % change
tonne (Mean) from spot High Low 1800 Premium Bulk, long-term contracts.
Spot Price, fob
Spot price 1546 e 1600 Iluka is the world’s largest zircon
Dec 2022 1546 0.0% 1810 1300 miner and as a result the most in-
1400
Mar 2023 1506 -2.6% 1650 1300 fluential in setting a benchmark
Jun 2023 1505 -2.7% 1650 1300 1200 price. Its Eucla basin in Australia is
Sep 2023 1505 -2.7% 1650 1300 1000 mined principally for zircon unlike
Dec 2023 1505 -2.7% 1650 1300 the majority of other mines, for
800
Mar 2024 1505 -2.7% 1650 1300 which zircon is a coproduct of rutile
Jun 2024 1504 -2.7% 1650 1300 600 and ilmenite.
Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan
Sep 2024 1504 -2.7% 1650 1300
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

GOLD OCTOBER 2022
Survey Date Spot Price Gold Forecasts, US$/Troy Ounce Nominal, Quarterly Averages
from spot
Citigroup 1775 1800 1825 1925 16.7% 1925 2000 2000 2000
Moody's Analytics 1699 1729 1777 1827 10.8% 1895 1903 1914 1931
ISGR 1950 1900 1850 1800 9.1% 1750 1700 1650 1640
JP Morgan 1650 1670 1700 1760 6.7% 1820 na na na
UBS 1670 1687 1708 1727 4.7% 1744 1760 1785 1793
Deutsche Bank 1650 1650 1650 1700 3.1% 1700 1750 1750 1750
BMO 1728 1625 1615 1685 2.2% 1660 1635 1615 1615
Investec 1705 1705 1660 1660 0.6% 1640 1640 1680 1680
Pezco Economics 1769 1737 1678 1656 0.4% 1659 1709 1755 1767
Credit Suisse 1700 1650 1650 1650 0.0% 1650 1600 1600 1600
Morgan Stanley 1650 1600 1650 1650 0.0% 1650 1650 1650 1650
Australia Dept of Industry 1675 1666 1656 1647 -0.1% 1638 1628 1619 1609
Liberum Capital 1640 1635 1635 1630 -1.2% 1630 1625 1625 1625
ANZ 1612 1593 1590 1615 -2.1% 1640 1620 1540 1440
Bank Julius Baer 1650 1625 1600 1600 -3.0% 1575 na na na
Societe G enerale 1750 1700 1650 1600 -3.0% 1550 na na na
Macquarie 1625 1575 1500 1550 -6.0% 1600 1650 1650 1650
Consensus (Mean) 1703 1681 1678 1690 2.5% 1695 1684 1682 1676
High 1950 1900 1850 1925 2000 2000 2000 2000
Low 1612 1541 1481 1441 1415 1395 1379 1366
US$/troy ounce Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices

2200
Gold, Spot Price (PM Fixing), 1850
London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) US$/troy oz
2000 1800 COMEX Futures
1800 1750
1600 1700
1400 Consensus
1650
1200
As of survey date
1600
1000 Spot Dec Mar J un Sep Dec Mar J un Sep
Linked to Movements in the USD
US$
Gold Futures Prices – 3 Month Contract (COMEX)
US$/troy oz, Daily High/Low/Close Index ² Gold has seen its appeal as an investment
2,100 96 vehicle reduced by strength in the US dollar
98 and demand for US Treasury bonds. The US
Gold Futures, 3 Month Fed has raised rates by 75bps increments in
2,000 100
Daily High/Low/Close (lhs)
102 its last three meetings and is under pressure
1,900 104 to do so again on November 2.
106 ² In a relative sense, the precious metal, which
1,800 108 benefits from recession fears and high infla-
110 tion, has not performed as badly as most base
1,700 US$ Index 112 metals (summary on page 2).
(rhs, inverted scale)
114 ² Its natural position as a hedge against risk
1,600 116 continues to attract central banks looking to
Apr 2022 May 2022 Jun 2022 Jul 2022 Aug 2022 Sep 2022 Oct 2022 diversify their investment holdings.
World Gold Supply and Demand 1
Total Gold Supply Gold prices are fixed twice daily by the LBMA provid-
2
Total Gold Demand ing a benchmark price for trades on various ex-
(in tonnes)
changes and over-the-counter trades.
World 2018 2019 2020 2021
US Futures Market: COMEX Pricing: US$/troy ounce
Supply1 4772 4876 4729 4704 Contract Size: 100 troy ounces Deliverability: Next 3 cal-
Demand2 4454 4359 3657 4022 endar months; any February, April, August and October
Balance 318 517 1072 682 within 23 months; and any June and December within
Historical Estimates Source: World Gold Council 72 months. Contracts Traded: 58,464,997 (2021).
OCTOBER 2022 SILVER
Survey Date Spot Price Silver Forecasts, US$/Troy Ounce Nominal, Quarterly Averages
(Oct. 17): US$ 18.77
from spot
RBC Capital Markets 25.50 23.50 23.50 23.50 25.2% 23.50 22.75 22.75 22.75
Citigroup 18.50 18.50 20.00 21.00 11.9% 23.00 20.00 20.00 20.00
Deutsche Bank 19.00 20.00 20.00 21.00 11.9% 21.00 22.00 22.00 22.00
Morgan Stanley 18.33 17.78 19.41 20.63 9.9% 20.63 23.57 23.57 23.57
BMO 19.24 19.20 18.50 20.00 6.6% 20.50 20.50 21.00 21.50
Credit Suisse 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 6.6% 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00
Pezco Economics 21.15 20.77 20.07 19.83 5.7% 20.04 20.24 20.40 20.42
Investec 19.42 19.42 19.53 19.53 4.1% 20.00 20.00 21.00 21.00
Bank Julius Baer 20.50 20.00 20.00 19.50 3.9% 19.50 na na na
S&P Global Mkt Intel 19.51 19.32 19.25 19.26 2.6% 19.31 18.81 18.48 18.17
UBS 18.91 19.01 19.13 19.25 2.6% 19.36 19.48 19.65 19.70
Liberum Capital 19.10 19.00 19.00 18.90 0.7% 18.90 19.10 19.10 19.30
JP Morgan 16.84 17.04 17.71 18.72 -0.2% 19.78 na na na
ANZ 17.76 17.70 17.67 17.94 -4.4% 18.22 18.50 18.03 17.56
Macquarie 18.25 17.00 16.00 17.50 -6.7% 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00
Consensus (Mean) 19.30 18.97 19.23 19.59 4.4% 20.04 19.85 19.98 20.16
High 25.50 23.50 23.50 23.50 25.00 23.57 23.57 23.57
Low 16.84 16.21 15.08 14.41 14.01 13.71 13.48 13.31
Silver, Spot Price (Fixing), Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices

Ratio
London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) 21.0
50.0 125 US$/troy oz
US$/troy ounce Gold/Silver Spot 20.5
Price Ratio (rhs) 100 Consensus
40.0 20.0
75
19.5
30.0
50 19.0
20.0 COMEX Futures
25 18.5
Silver Spot Price (lhs) As of survey date
10.0 0 18.0
Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 Jan 2020 Jan 2022 Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024
Silver Futures Prices – 3 Month Contract (COMEX) Price Swings on US Macro News
US$ US$/troy oz, Daily High/Low/Close ² The beginnings of a silver price rally were cut
28.0 short in October, amid speculation that the
US Fed would have to maintain its recent
26.0
trend of large rate hikes to contain inflation.
24.0
Related increases in US bond yields have also
raised the opportunity cost of holding non-
22.0 yielding precious metals.
² Silver prices appear firmly below US$20/troy
20.0 oz., as global recession fears in 2023 sour
industry demand.
18.0
² A sizeable physical deficit of the metal means
16.0 greater potential for a price revival should glo-
Apr 2022 May 2022 Jun 2022 Jul 2022 Aug 2022 Sep 2022 Oct 2022 bal economic prospects improve.
World Silver Supply and Demand 1
2
Total Silver Supply Silver, like gold, has a price set by members of the
(in millions of ounces) Total Physical Silver Demand LBMA which is used as a benchmark for over-the-
World 2018 2019 2020 2021 counter trades.
Supply1 1000 1000 953 997 US Futures Market: COMEX Pricing: US$/troy ounce
Contract Size: 5,000 troy ounces Deliverability: Next 3
Demand 2 976 980 880 1049
calendar months; any January, March, May and Sep-
Balance 24 20 73 -52 tember within 23 months; and any July and December
Historical Estimates Source: World Silver Survey 2022, The Silver Institute within 60 months. Contracts Traded: 19,669,574(2021).
PLATINUM OCTOBER 2022
Survey Date Spot Price Platinum Forecasts, US$/Troy Ounce

(Oct. 17): US$ 920.0
from spot
ANZ 940 1012 1098 1180 28.3% 1200 1230 1190 1150
Citigroup 850 900 1000 1100 19.6% 1100 1100 1100 1100
JP Morgan 950 960 1000 1100 19.6% 1200 na na na
Morgan Stanley 900 1000 1050 1100 19.6% 1150 1200 1250 1300
UBS 955 1000 1070 1070 16.3% 1120 1170 1170 1170
S&P Global Mkt Intel 928 965 994 1023 11.1% 1057 1079 1090 1096
Macquarie 850 825 900 1000 8.7% 1100 1150 1150 1150
Deutsche Bank 850 825 900 950 3.3% 950 1200 1200 1200
Liberum Capital 880 900 920 930 1.1% 940 1150 1150 1150
Investec 904 904 913 913 -0.8% 935 935 1058 1058
Commonwealth Bank 875 860 875 900 -2.2% 925 950 975 1000
BMO 888 935 900 865 -6.0% 925 950 975 1050
Consensus (Mean) 941 973 1013 1048 13.9% 1082 1102 1117 1124
High 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1300 1300 1300
Low 850 808 823 838 848 858 873 888
Platinum, Spot Price (PM Fixing), Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices

London Platinum and Palladium Market (LPPM)
US$/troy ounce Ratio 1200
US$/troy oz
2000 1.6 Consensus
As of survey date
1100
1750
1.2
1500 Platinum/Gold Spot
Price Ratio (rhs) 1000
1250 0.8
1000 900
Platinum Spot Price (lhs) 0.4 NYMEX Futures
750
800
500 0.0 Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
Price Rebound Anticipated

Platinum Futures Prices – 3 Month Contract (NYMEX)
US$/troy oz, Daily High/Low/Close ² Despite a surge in global uncertainty, plati-
US$ num has not deviated too much from the
1,100
US$900/troy oz. level for the past four months.
² Some areas of demand have held up, includ-
1,000 ing jewellery, but industrial applications of the
metal have struggled. Chip shortages that
hobbled the automotive industry over 2020-
900 21 may persist through 2023. The sale of new
vehicles is anticipated to slow as consumers
800 grapple against a cost of living crisis and the
spectre of recession.
² The 2023 price outlook is contingent on macro
700 developments and government ‘green’ poli-
Apr 2022 May 2022 Jun 2022 Jul 2022 Aug 2022 Sep 2022 Oct 2022 cies, as well as the ongoing efforts to substi-
tute dearer palladium for platinum.
World Platinum Supply and Demand 1
Total Platinum Supply
Platinum prices are fixed twice daily by the LPPM
2
Total Platinum Demand
(in thousands of ounces) to provide a benchmark price in a practice similar to
World 2018 2019 2020 2021 that used for gold and silver.
US Futures Market: NYMEX Pricing: US$/troy
Supply 1
8090 8206 6832 8242
ounce Lot Size: 50 troy ounces Deliverability: Over
Demand 2 7375 8294 7718 7010 15 months including the next 3 calendar months;
Balance 715 -87 -886 1232 then a January, April, June and October cycle. Con-
Historical Estimates Source: World Platinum Investment Council tracts Traded: 4,450,863 (2021).
OCTOBER 2022 PALLADIUM
Survey Date Spot Price Palladium Forecasts, US$/Troy Ounce

(Oct. 17): US$ 2031
from spot
Citigroup 2000 2000 2200 2300 13.2% 2350 2050 2050 2050
ANZ 1960 2060 2130 2168 6.7% 2132 2040 1880 1680
Investec 2134 2134 2029 2029 -0.1% 2077 2077 2035 2035
Deutsche Bank 2000 1800 1950 2000 -1.5% 2000 1800 1800 1800
Macquarie 2000 1900 2100 2000 -1.5% 1900 1800 1700 1600
Morgan Stanley 2050 2100 2100 2000 -1.5% 1900 1800 1700 1550
ISGR 2000 2100 2000 1950 -4.0% 1900 1850 1800 1770
BMO 2081 2155 2050 1925 -5.2% 1945 1915 1825 1750
RBC Capital Markets 1800 1900 1900 1900 -6.5% 1900 1800 1800 1800
Liberum Capital 2050 1950 1900 1850 -8.9% 1750 1500 1500 1500
JP Morgan 2400 2000 1900 1800 -11.4% 1700 na na na
UBS 2005 1850 1850 1800 -11.4% 1700 1500 1500 1500
Consensus (Mean) 2010 1968 1987 1976 -2.7% 1936 1837 1804 1763
High 2400 2200 2200 2300 2350 2283 2348 2413
Low 1500 1500 1643 1549 1531 1500 1500 1473
Palladium, Spot Price (PM Fixing), Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices

London Platinum and Palladium Market (LPPM) US$/troy oz As of survey date
US$/troy ounce Ratio 2100
3500 4.0 NYMEX Futures

Platinum/Palladium 3.5 2000
3000
Spot Price Ratio (rhs)
2500 Palladium Spot 3.0
Price (lhs) 2.5 1900
2000
2.0 Consensus
1500
1.5
1000 1800
1.0
500 0.5
0 0.0 1700
Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 Jan 2020 Jan 2022 Spot Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
2022 2023 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024 2024
High Demand/Low Supply

Palladium Futures Prices – 3 Month Contract (NYMEX)
US$
² Palladium continues to exhibits exceptional
US$/troy oz, Daily High/Low/Close
volatility as the supply-constrained metal is
2,600
beholden to investor speculation. Gains made
in September were unwound in October, after
2,400
resilient US economic data outturns kept pres-
sure on the US Fed to maintain an aggres-
2,200
sive policy stance at its next meeting. Apart
from energy, most commodity classes have
2,000
performed poorly in 2022.
² Industrial action at South African mines and
1,800
the threat of more stringent sanctions on Rus-
sia have kept the tight supply situation in fo-
1,600 cus. Auto industry demand remains a major
unknown, as both the US and Chinese
economy look set to struggle in 2023.
World Palladium Supply and Demand 1
2
Total Palladium Supply
Palladium prices are fixed twice daily by the LPPM to
Total Palladium Demand
(in thousands of ounces) provide a benchmark price in a practice used for other
World 2018 2019 2020 2021 precious metals. Most palladium is used in catalytic
converters. US Futures Market: NYMEX Pricing: US$/
Supply1 10136 10509 9307 10157 troy ounce Lot Size: 100 troy ounces Deliverability:
Demand2 10352 11445 9954 10097 Over 15 months including the next 3 calendar months;
Balance -216 -936 -647 60 then a March, June, September and December cycle.
Historical Estimates Source: Johnson Matthey Platinum Group Metals Survey Contracts Traded: 604,582 (2021).
COMMODITY PRICE AND CURRENCY CORRELATIONS OCTOBER 2022
Historical relationships between commodity prices can pro- data for the period from January 1997 to September 2022
vide useful guidelines for both users of commodity price pro- (Table 2). The correlation coefficients shown in the tables
jections and those examining hedging or risk management indicate the degree to which two commodity prices move
strategies. Part 1 of the following study (below) uses correla- together, with positive values of close to one (in red boxes)
tion analysis to examine some of the linkages between vari- indicating that the commodity prices considered move very
ous commodity prices. The calculations were made using closely together; values of close to minus one indicate that
daily data over the period from April 1, 2022 to September the two prices generally move in opposite directions. Values
30, 2022 (see Table 1). To provide a longer term historical close to zero show that there is little or no correlation be-
perspective, we also calculated correlations using monthly tween the two variables concerned.
Daily Correlations: April 1, 2022 to September 30, 2022 TABLE 1

1
Oil (WTI) Oil (Brent) Natural Gas Aluminium Copper Nickel Lead Zinc Gold Silver Platinum Palladium
Oil (WTI) 1.00 We have shaded in red co-efficients

Oil (Brent) 0.97 1.00 greater or equal to +0.70 to highlight
Natural Gas
1
0.00 0.00 1.00 commodity prices that have moved
closely together over the past six months
Aluminium 0.49 0.46 -0.21 1.00 (blue for those with a co-efficient of less
Copper 0.61 0.55 -0.14 0.92 1.00 than -0.70, indicating that they have
Nickel 0.44 0.39 -0.24 0.92 0.95 1.00
generally moved in opposite directions).
Lead 0.44 0.44 -0.09 0.93 0.86 0.86 1.00

Zinc 0.46 0.44 -0.06 0.92 0.92 0.89 0.94 1.00
Gold 0.63 0.62 -0.23 0.92 0.93 0.87 0.91 0.93 1.00
Silver 0.52 0.50 -0.28 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.91 0.93 0.95 1.00
Platinum 0.61 0.60 0.05 0.73 0.83 0.77 0.76 0.77 0.79 0.81 1.00
Palladium -0.30 -0.29 -0.09 0.53 0.40 0.55 0.59 0.58 0.40 0.53 0.32 1.00
1
US Henry Hub
Monthly Correlations: January 1997 to September 2022 TABLE 2

1
Oil (WTI) 1.00

Oil (Brent) 0.99 1.00
Natural Gas
1
0.37 0.29 1.00 Traditionally, the correlations between crude oil and
base or industrial metals have been highly positive,
Aluminium 0.74 0.70 0.47 1.00 unsurprising given that the cost of the former has a
Copper 0.86 0.87 0.15 0.81 1.00 direct affect on the profitability of the latter.
Nickel 0.68 0.64 0.46 0.84 0.72 1.00
Lead 0.77 0.77 0.06 0.68 0.90 0.64 1.00
Zinc 0.57 0.57 0.13 0.79 0.82 0.70 0.77 1.00
Gold 0.64 0.70 -0.18 0.48 0.84 0.38 0.79 0.65 1.00
Silver 0.75 0.81 -0.09 0.56 0.87 0.49 0.78 0.57 0.89 1.00
Platinum 0.89 0.89 0.30 0.66 0.82 0.69 0.77 0.48 0.61 0.78 1.00
Palladium 0.22 0.26 -0.19 0.31 0.52 0.16 0.43 0.53 0.73 0.48 0.10 1.00
1
US Henry Hub
This year’s findings of our commodity price correlations study

Chart 1: Correlation Between Aluminium and Copper *
are reflective of the heightened level of market volatility over March 1 - October 17, 2022
the past six months. The highly positive correlations seen 1.2
within much of the industrial and precious metals complex 1.0
(+0.7 or greater, Table 1) can be traced to the fallout of Rus- 0.8
sia’s war with Ukraine. Metals prices initially jumped in 0.6
lockstep in early March, when the West responded to Putin’s
0.4
invasion with unprecedented economic and financial sanc-
0.2
tions as punishment. With Russia an important player in many
0.0
of these markets, the prospect of losing a crucial supplier
-0.2 1 = moving in lockstep
sent traders into frenzy, prompting the price of some metals
-0.4 -1 = moving in opposite directions
to soar to all-time highs. While the size of each individual
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
price swings differed, the upwards direction for all was clear.
Later in the year, however, these prices trended downward * Rolling 20-day correlation between daily changes.

OCTOBER 2022 COMMODITY PRICE AND CURRENCY CORRELATIONS
together, as fears grew that the worldwide rush to tighten and gas prices in recent months. The two often have some
monetary policy to constrain inflation would lead to a global level of relation, be that in negative terms as substitutes, or
economic slowdown. While historically many commodity price positive as the business cycle largely dictates demand. How-
correlations have been tight, this year’s strength has been ever, the impact of exogenous shocks have been so large,
exceptional. Similarly, the relationship between currencies uneven and specific (be it sanctions, OPEC+ decisions, pipe-
and the base metals has also proved close in this year’s line sabotage, or lack of capacity for alternate supplies and
showing (Table 3). This is largely due to the role the US dollar substitutes) that these traditional price relationships have
has played in the current crisis, as it is often viewed as the largely broken down as volatility has been overwhelming.
safe-haven of last resort for investors in times of economic 2 Note: All currency movements are measured against the US$,
distress. Thus the dollar’s recent ascent to a 20 year high except the US$ which is assessed against the Special Drawing
occurred in response to deteriorating global economic condi- Rights (SDR). In each correlation calculation below, a positive
tions, which at the same time weighed on many commodi- reading (shaded in red for those above +0.70) indicates that the
ties. With the metals complex priced in dollars for the most currency and commodity variable together. A negative reading,
part, its subsequent strength has dragged on demand for indicating that they generally move in opposite directions, is
shaded in blue (i.e. below -0.70). For some currencies, strength
raw materials as it raises costs for purchasers outside the
is represented by a smaller number of currency units per US$
US. Also of note is the zero correlation recorded between oil (the usual way in which most currencies are expressed).
Daily Correlations: April 1, 2022 to September 30, 2022 TABLE 3

1
S&P500 index 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.75 0.60 0.62 0.83 0.78 0.66 0.65 0.54 0.68
2
US dollar -0.70 -0.70 0.22 -0.91 -0.87 -0.80 -0.88 -0.85 -0.95 -0.89 -0.78 -0.29
2
Euro 0.73 0.72 -0.23 0.88 0.89 0.82 0.84 0.83 0.94 0.89 0.81 0.23
2
Yen 0.61 0.60 -0.14 0.92 0.85 0.78 0.87 0.84 0.91 0.86 0.74 0.36
UK pound 2 0.66 0.67 -0.16 0.91 0.84 0.78 0.90 0.86 0.94 0.88 0.76 0.33
2
Australian $ 0.51 0.52 -0.05 0.91 0.82 0.79 0.93 0.89 0.89 0.86 0.76 0.47
2
Canadian $ 0.65 0.68 0.02 0.77 0.68 0.60 0.80 0.74 0.80 0.70 0.67 0.23
New Zealand $ 2 0.54 0.55 -0.12 0.92 0.82 0.78 0.93 0.89 0.92 0.87 0.72 0.43
2
Brazil real 0.46 0.43 0.03 0.86 0.89 0.83 0.82 0.89 0.82 0.85 0.78 0.52
2
Chilean peso 0.53 0.51 0.10 0.85 0.90 0.82 0.82 0.87 0.83 0.82 0.81 0.37
2
S. African rand 0.65 0.65 -0.20 0.91 0.90 0.82 0.89 0.88 0.95 0.92 0.80 0.34
Norwegian krone 2 0.39 0.40 -0.08 0.92 0.82 0.81 0.94 0.91 0.89 0.86 0.69 0.58
2
Indian rupee 0.55 0.50 -0.03 0.92 0.94 0.91 0.91 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.82 0.48
2
Peruvian sol 0.69 0.65 -0.09 0.74 0.85 0.72 0.63 0.74 0.79 0.76 0.75 0.08
Russian rouble 2 -0.07 -0.02 0.22 -0.82 -0.70 -0.80 -0.80 -0.76 -0.68 -0.76 -0.49 -0.77
1 2
US Henry Hub See Note Above
Monthly Correlations: January 1997 to September 2022 TABLE 4

1
S&P500 index 0.23 0.26 -0.15 0.37 0.54 0.18 0.49 0.65 0.71 0.43 0.06 0.92
2
US dollar -0.71 -0.68 -0.34 -0.50 -0.57 -0.60 -0.56 -0.28 -0.32 -0.52 -0.81 0.23
Euro 2 0.71 0.67 0.35 0.55 0.61 0.62 0.60 0.34 0.34 0.52 0.79 -0.14
2
Yen 0.55 0.59 -0.06 0.24 0.48 0.28 0.41 0.08 0.48 0.69 0.69 -0.01
2
UK pound 0.15 0.08 0.52 0.23 -0.07 0.39 -0.10 -0.14 -0.49 -0.22 0.24 -0.64
2
Australian $ 0.81 0.83 0.13 0.55 0.74 0.57 0.69 0.40 0.57 0.78 0.88 -0.01
2
Canadian $ 0.87 0.86 0.31 0.65 0.77 0.69 0.71 0.44 0.51 0.72 0.93 -0.04
2
New Zealand $ 0.76 0.78 0.13 0.56 0.77 0.55 0.77 0.54 0.65 0.74 0.79 0.15
2
Brazil real -0.11 -0.12 -0.02 -0.10 -0.26 -0.07 -0.27 -0.34 -0.46 -0.19 -0.05 -0.58
2
Chilean peso 0.11 0.11 0.06 0.06 -0.06 0.09 -0.08 -0.19 -0.31 0.01 0.20 -0.58
2
S. African rand -0.26 -0.29 0.19 -0.12 -0.44 -0.06 -0.48 -0.44 -0.68 -0.41 -0.20 -0.68
2
Norwegian krone 0.61 0.58 0.41 0.41 0.36 0.51 0.32 0.05 0.02 0.34 0.71 -0.49
2
Indian rupee -0.25 -0.30 0.28 -0.10 -0.46 0.00 -0.47 -0.47 -0.75 -0.47 -0.15 -0.76
2
Peruvian sol 0.40 0.43 -0.09 0.10 0.23 0.16 0.25 -0.06 0.11 0.36 0.50 -0.41
2
Russian rouble -0.35 -0.36 -0.11 -0.22 -0.40 -0.24 -0.41 -0.34 -0.47 -0.36 -0.36 -0.40
1 2
US Henry Hub See Note Above.
OCTOBER
Consensus Forecasts Percentage Changes From Spot Price 2022
During the Next Eight Quarters
% Change
25.0
Tin
15.0
Uranium
5.0
Gold
Copper
-5.0
Crude Oil, Brent
Nickel
-15.0
Spot Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24
CONSENSUS ECONOMICS INC.
Established in 1989, Consensus Economics prepares monthly compilations of country economic forecasts and
topical analyses covering the G-7 & Western Europe, Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe and Latin America, as well
as specialised publications on Foreign Exchange Forecasts and Energy and Metal Price Forecasts.
Over the past three decades Consensus Economics has cultivated a growing network of economists, drawing
upon the expertise of well-established local consultancies, academia and large teams of professionals in banks
and financial institutions who are dedicated to particular countries and regions.
Energy & Metals Consensus Forecasts® is available from US$790 or £535 or €645 or A$825 for 12 monthly issues
(Hard Copy only). PDF and Excel delivery of the publication and its data (as well as site licences for group access)
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editors@consensuseconomics.com
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Tel (44 20) 7491 3211
10/2022 EMCF

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Under our agreement this publication may not be repro-

Long-Term Forecasts ............................ 5 Agricultural Forecasts: A New Edition

Chart of Commodity Forecasts........... 28 1,900 104

SUMMARY OF SELECT ENERGY & METALS CONSENSUS FORECASTS

Aluminium (US$/tonne) 12 -20.2% 2239 2375 2410 2466 +10.1%

Gold (US$/troy oz.) 22 -8.7% 1649 1681 1678 1690 +2.5%

NOTES, ABBREVIATIONS, WEIGHTS AND MEASURES OCTOBER 2022

❒ 1kilogram (kg) = 2.2046 pounds ❒ 1 barrel = 42 US gallons

REAL GDP GROWTH Consensus INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION GROWTH Consensus

Weights By Share of World Trade: Weights By Share of Australia Export Values:

Recent Historical Data and Projections Using Consensus Forecasts

Changes in the Consensus: Changes in the Consensus:

230 Historical Data 180 Historical Data

4 © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2022

Aluminium 2475 2719 2445 2665 2614 2587 2699 2413

Gold 1799 1795 1686 1697 1666 1662 1727 1453

© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2022 5

70 Crude oil is refined into numerous saleable products

US$ Consensus Forecasts for RBOB Gasoline

8 © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2022

10 © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2022

High 55.00 70.00 67.50 65.00 65.00 60.16 60.20 60.23

Carbon, EU ETS, Spot Price Euro/tonne Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices

© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2022 11

High 350.0 360.0 360.0 360.0 360.0 360.0 375.2 375.2

Alumina, Metallurgical Grade, Spot Price Alumina Consensus Forecasts v Futures

© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2022 13

High 865.0 900.0 850.0 800.0 810.0 850.0 900.0 890.0

Steel Prices Hit a Floor

US$ Fines and Lump Iron Ore Prices

ANZ Bank of America Securities BMO

Capital Economics Citigroup Commonwealth Bank

Credit Suisse Deutsche Bank Economist Intelligence Unit

Euromonitor Liberum Macquarie

Morgan Stanley Oxford Economics Pezco Economics

Prometeia RBC Capital Markets Standard Chartered

(Nominal, Quarterly Averages) US$/lb Molybdenum is principally used as

RUTILE (Nominal, Quarterly Averages) US$/T, fob

© Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2022 21

US$/troy ounce Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices

Silver, Spot Price (Fixing), Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices

Survey Date Spot Price Platinum Forecasts, US$/Troy Ounce

Platinum, Spot Price (PM Fixing), Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices

Price Rebound Anticipated

Survey Date Spot Price Palladium Forecasts, US$/Troy Ounce

Palladium, Spot Price (PM Fixing), Consensus Forecasts v Futures Prices

3500 4.0 NYMEX Futures

High Demand/Low Supply

Daily Correlations: April 1, 2022 to September 30, 2022 TABLE 1

Oil (WTI) 1.00 We have shaded in red co-efficients

Lead 0.44 0.44 -0.09 0.93 0.86 0.86 1.00

Monthly Correlations: January 1997 to September 2022 TABLE 2

Oil (WTI) 1.00

This year’s findings of our commodity price correlations study

26 © Copyright Consensus Economics Inc. 2022

Daily Correlations: April 1, 2022 to September 30, 2022 TABLE 3

Monthly Correlations: January 1997 to September 2022 TABLE 4

CONSENSUS ECONOMICS INC.