MKTG 4110 Class 14

Population, Census, and Sample?

DEFINITIONS
A population is any complete group with at least one characteristic in common

WAYS TO UNDERSTAND POPULATION

Two approaches: taking a census, or selecting a sample

• Census: survey every member of the population by a complete canvas

• Sampling: selection of a part of the population

Both provide information to draw general conclusions about the entire population,
but it is often costly to study the entire census

Six steps of drawing a sample

1. Define the target population

The entire of body of units of interest to the

researcher/decision maker

2. Identify the sampling frame

• Individuals, households, or institutions
• Every unit is uniquely identified
• All units can be found in the frame
• No units not in the population of interest are in the frame
• The data should be up-to-date

3. Select a sampling method

NON-PROBABILITY SAMPLE PROBABILITY SAMPLE

 Population elements are not randomly selected
 Exploratory research almost always uses non-
probability samples
 Sample is NOT projectable to target population
 Quantifications of the amount of variation
(sampling error) by using a sample instead of a
census are NOT possibl
 Fast and inexpensive
 E.g., Mall Intercept
 Every element has a known, non-zero
probability of inclusion in the sample.
 Descriptive and Causal research almost always use
probability samples
 Sample is projectable to target population
 Quantification and statistical analysis are possible;
inferences can be made about the target population
 Time intensive and expensive usually
 E.g., Simple Random Sample
SAMPLING FRAME ERROR

 When the population set by the sampling frame differs from the (ideal) population
in a systematic way

SAMPLING AND NON-SAMPLING ERRORS

 Sampling Error: generally shrinks with larger sample sizes
 Non-sampling Error: e.g., non-respondent bias, interviewer bias, coding error
a. Non-probability Sampling
Sampling Methods: Convenience Sampling

• can be “conveniently” conducted but suffers from non-representativenes

• “Accidental" - based on ease of accessibility
• Examples
• Mall intercept
• Radio station asking people to express their reactions
• Pop-up window on website for a survey
• Disadvantages
• Sampling units elected by interviewer are easily accessible
• Not representative of the population

Sampling Methods: Judgment Sampling

 relies on a sample that is selected based on the opinion of an expert

 “Purposive"
 Elements are hand picked to obtain better results
 Examples
• Swing states in election time
• Drawing the sample from one “representative” city that most resembles the US pop
 Disadvantages
• Personal bias can be injected
• Expert might be incorrect
• Sample might not be representative...

Sampling Methods: Quota Sampling

 “To ensure" representativeness

 Sample is similar to population on a number of variables (e.g., age and gender)
 Example: interviewer samples 200 females and 300 males of ages 45-60
 Disadvantages: units selected or discarded by interviewer to fit quota

CORE DRAWBACKS OF NON-PROBABILITY SAMPLES

KEY DISADVANTAGES

 Sample may not be representative of target population

 Difficult to project sample results to target population

CIRCUMSTANCE OF USING A NON-PROBABILITY SAMPLE

 Generalizability of research is not a key issue

 Exploratory research: e.g., focus groups
 Pre-testing a questionnaire
 When probability samples are impossible (difficulty to acquire a sampling frame
b. Probability Sampling
Sampling Methods: Simple Random Sampling

 Requires list of population elements (e.g., all your names)

 Use computer generated random numbers to select
o Then if you want to select 10% of the population, specify: x<10% or x>90%
 Example: Random digit dialing (RDD)
 Election opinion polling
 Important bias:
o Overcount those who have phones
o Non-response bias
 LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS
o Given enough time, the house always wins”

Sampling Methods: Stratified Sampling

• Population is divided into mutually exclusive and exhaustive subsets

• A simple random sample of elements is chosen independently from each subset

IDEAL CHARACTERISTICS OF STRATA

• Homogeneous within strata

• Heterogeneous across strata

BASIS AND EXAMPLES OF STRATA

• Use criteria that are related to whatever you are measuring

• Example:
• Gender as strata for average height
• Income of Tulane grads, by major
• Age, nationality, religion, etc

REASONS TO STRATIFY

• Ensures the presence of the key subgroup within the sample

• E.g., representatively sample even the smallest subgroups
• Guarantee minimum sample sizes so analyses can be done at the stratum level

DISADVANTAGES
* Subjects overlapping into multiple groups
• Finding exhaustive list of groups might be challenging
Sampling Methods: Cluster Sampling

The parent population is divided into

mutually exclusive and exhaustive subsets
• Select a random sample of the subsets
IDEAL TRAITS OF CLUSTERS
• Each cluster is a small scale representation of
target population
• Each cluster is as heterogeneous as the pop
• Clusters should be as similar to each other

DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CLUSTER AND STRATIFIED SAMPLING

• Strata - all groups included; homogeneous within a strata
• Cluster - random selection of groups; heterogeneous within a cluster

Example: Super Bowl Sunday

Goal:
estimate the proportion of people who plan to watch the Super Bowl
Assume that we want errors to be no larger than 3%, level of confidence equal to 95%.
Then, how large must our sample size be?
• “In 95 out of 100 samples we want to be within 3% of the true proportion in the pop

E=0.03
p=0.50 (the most conservative estimate)
Z=1.96 (corresponding to 95% confidence)

n = 1.96^2 x 0.50 x (1-0.50)/0.03^2

=1067.1