Dependent Variable: UNEMPL

Method: ARDL
Date: 04/29/23 Time: 21:55
Sample (adjusted): 2004 2019
Included observations: 16 after adjustments
Maximum dependent lags: 2 (Automatic selection)
Model selection method: Akaike info criterion (AIC)
Dynamic regressors (4 lags, automatic): POPG GDP 
Fixed regressors: C
Number of models evalulated: 50
Selected Model: ARDL(1, 2, 4)

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.*  

UNEMPL(-1) -0.462869 0.444201 -1.042028 0.3376

POPG 235.4715 166.9600 1.410346 0.2081
POPG(-1) -86.42176 250.2202 -0.345383 0.7416
POPG(-2) -199.6782 146.3392 -1.364489 0.2214
GDP 0.123279 0.702464 0.175496 0.8665
GDP(-1) -1.336733 0.596591 -2.240619 0.0663
GDP(-2) -1.051338 0.551449 -1.906500 0.1052
GDP(-3) -0.939010 0.444168 -2.114087 0.0789
GDP(-4) -1.040221 0.594429 -1.749950 0.1307
C 180.5950 83.18726 2.170945 0.0730

R-squared 0.847298     Mean dependent var 13.24375

Adjusted R-squared 0.618245     S.D. dependent var 5.323278
S.E. of regression 3.289056     Akaike info criterion 5.488249
Sum squared resid 64.90735     Schwarz criterion 5.971117
Log likelihood -33.90599     Hannan-Quinn criter. 5.512976
F-statistic 3.699139     Durbin-Watson stat 2.471272
Prob(F-statistic) 0.062680

*Note: p-values and any subsequent tests do not account for model
        selection.

Null Hypothesis: UNEMPL has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=4)

t-Statistic   Prob.*

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -1.556133  0.4845

Test critical values: 1% level -3.831511
5% level -3.029970
10% level -2.655194

*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.

Warning: Probabilities and critical values calculated for 20 observations
        and may not be accurate for a sample size of 19

Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation

Dependent Variable: D(UNEMPL)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/29/23 Time: 22:10
Sample (adjusted): 2001 2019
Included observations: 19 after adjustments
 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.  

UNEMPL(-1) -0.357257 0.229580 -1.556133 0.1381

C 5.093567 3.085616 1.650745 0.1171

R-squared 0.124684     Mean dependent var 0.526316

Adjusted R-squared 0.073194     S.D. dependent var 4.311592
S.E. of regression 4.150801     Akaike info criterion 5.783781
Sum squared resid 292.8956     Schwarz criterion 5.883195
Log likelihood -52.94592     Hannan-Quinn criter. 5.800606
F-statistic 2.421549     Durbin-Watson stat 1.789957
Prob(F-statistic) 0.138096

Group unit root test: Summary 

Series: UNEMPL, POPG, GDP
Date: 05/01/23 Time: 22:26
Sample: 2000 2019
Exogenous variables: Individual effects
Automatic selection of maximum lags
Automatic lag length selection based on SIC: 0 to 2
Newey-West automatic bandwidth selection and Bartlett kernel

Cross-
Method Statistic Prob.** sections Obs
Null: Unit root (assumes common unit root process) 
Levin, Lin & Chu t* -4.14185  0.0000  3  55

Null: Unit root (assumes individual unit root process) 

Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat  -2.24358  0.0124  3  55
ADF - Fisher Chi-square  16.5299  0.0112  3  55
PP - Fisher Chi-square  4.98780  0.5454  3  57

** Probabilities for Fisher tests are computed using an asymptotic Chi

        -square distribution. All other tests assume asymptotic normality.

ARDL Error Correction Regression

Dependent Variable: D(POPG)
Selected Model: ARDL(3, 0)
Case 2: Restricted Constant and No Trend
Date: 05/01/23 Time: 22:37
Sample: 2000 2019
Included observations: 17

ECM Regression
Case 2: Restricted Constant and No Trend

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.   

D(POPG(-1)) 0.289209 0.174749 1.654994 0.1261

D(POPG(-2)) 0.669176 0.179969 3.718277 0.0034
UNEMPL -0.000314 9.57E-05 -3.276336 0.0074
CointEq(-1)* -0.162840 0.030362 -5.363248 0.0002

R-squared 0.944371     Mean dependent var 0.002941

Adjusted R-squared 0.931533     S.D. dependent var 0.018962
S.E. of regression 0.004962     Akaike info criterion -7.571840
Sum squared resid 0.000320     Schwarz criterion -7.375790
Log likelihood 68.36064     Hannan-Quinn criter. -7.552352
Durbin-Watson stat 2.251058

* p-value incompatible with t-Bounds distribution.

F-Bounds Test Null Hypothesis: No levels relationship

Test Statistic Value Signif. I(0) I(1)

F-statistic  8.113045 10%   3.02 3.51

k 1 5%   3.62 4.16
2.5%   4.18 4.79
1%   4.94 5.58

ARDL Long Run Form and Bounds Test

Dependent Variable: D(POPG)
Selected Model: ARDL(3, 0)
Case 2: Restricted Constant and No Trend
Date: 05/01/23 Time: 22:41
Sample: 2000 2019
Included observations: 17

Conditional Error Correction Regression

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.   

C 0.435801 0.100801 4.323395 0.0012

POPG(-1)* -0.162840 0.036607 -4.448348 0.0010
GDP** -0.000201 0.000734 -0.274597 0.7887
D(POPG(-1)) 0.289209 0.200434 1.442915 0.1769
D(POPG(-2)) 0.669176 0.204268 3.275972 0.0074
UNEMPL -0.000314 0.000334 -0.939826 0.3675

  * p-value incompatible with t-Bounds distribution.

** Variable interpreted as Z = Z(-1) + D(Z).

Levels Equation
Case 2: Restricted Constant and No Trend

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.   

GDP -0.001237 0.004412 -0.280458 0.7843

C 2.676247 0.038122 70.20157 0.0000

EC = POPG - (-0.0012*GDP + 2.6762 )

F-Bounds Test Null Hypothesis: No levels relationship

Test Statistic Value Signif. I(0) I(1)

Asymptotic:
n=1000
F-statistic  8.113045 10%   3.02 3.51
k 1 5%   3.62 4.16
2.5%   4.18 4.79
1%   4.94 5.58
 Finite
Actual Sample Size 17 Sample: n=35
10%   3.223 3.757
5%   3.957 4.53
1%   5.763 6.48

Finite
Sample: n=30
10%   3.303 3.797
5%   4.09 4.663
1%   6.027 6.76

Date UNEMPL POPG MPOP GDP

2000 13.1 2.54 50.41 5.52
2001 13.6 2.54 50.43 6.67
2002 12.6 2.55 50.45 14.6
2003 14.8 2.57 50.46 9.5
2004 13.4 2.59 50.48 10.44
2005 11.9 2.62 50.5 7.01
2006 12.3 2.65 50.51 6.73
2007 12.7 2.67 50.53 7.32
2008 14.9 2.69 50.54 7.2
2009 19.7 2.7 50.56 8.35
2010 5.1 2.71 50.57 9.54
2011 6 2.71 50.59 5.31
2012 10.6 2.72 50.6 4.21
2013 10 2.71 50.61 5.49
2014 9.4 2.7 50.63 6.22
2015 9 2.68 50.64 2.79
2016 13.4 2.66 50.65 -1.58
2017 17.5 2.64 50.66 0.82
2018 22.9 2.62 50.66 1.91
2019 23.1 2.6 50.67 2.27