= |] op 3 = waite Cont fn CACIC S i [Revise “Recall that M& tolsles, in democraphy used the Prowing, | sens Se . “xc hee, doe pr gor Mx ex x - ade. . = - Are - Rumber ol’ People clwe ak age sc Coo think of! this eggs ™ SS lost barthelag ") tee sy deem Yang | | Lee agaphically + - = — | oe “sd = Qo ~ size % — Radix! \ —_sharkina, pont [population _ | | = = - = =. = = - Lee iso. comiwous Rinction but We tables use inteoers. = = JU =I = — = = = chee = the number A? pec, le who die between the ages i 2 a) WN 9 onch oth = = | doe = Roe - Roe es Cobos| | ones a Lecmminokina, ong. ve, Rist = 0 : | Pec - the. probotalit oP survivin ene year Rom ang. 2 jn the. pri au sewing 0 yess: Rom cog | pes Moers ne 2 Lecen Qe Ko qx = the prhobs Niky cg, toithin cre. ypor Fem 3: x NJ x. = The pba Yk 39 waitin nea aw = Goes T= poe NJ =e t= Re a ae —pesboiba, of dyina, within one ugar = Foc = a| The Farce of? Metal The Reo erce. & wines isthe instantaneous. Croke cl) transition M4 P bein ahve te bang, dee. Deneteck . by Moc. greckent of graph Lc - X-ve since frock ia Ve (By debhtion = px = = de de (22) 2 ay + duvide & get 6 probable | = og | EL] BY eis Ros - : : Ry defation = Sx(hOd) = i BO) J fe Pe fe 5 as | then ax Cin()) = Taha - (te) | thus = Cred) = - ey — = dn (Re) a - : —$— - - Tesities oP Me So 4. Roe = + = ig. do = f Dont t Mart dt F dave iil alt ‘ °» _ § pseet dt 2 aPx = e ° Ye Foe 5. NYoc = ~f pare dt Se il oan t Pac Mocit alt 6 afm Joe = aRe- m Fecen man = i EP Matt ot 8 a From (RY Me = > dee Le Dx. d dx poe = - d& doc £ mow be ony, ° a4 continbous num.—> J Reese Mort dt = - | ae C@xre) ot bo allow Se . ° in | Co) eambion \c) VUwo-oc+| w-oet] der @ 0 A ( Rcrt\ dt = — P ett pert alt Consider J def. ) J He Moc rt fus-sct worse Loc +t | =~ hese pect elt g > Rus - Roc = - FP Rost Mest dE os Q wo-2c4l A= P Rast pert ot 3 - west Also, Loc = { Boest phoert ol + f Lecrt fdocrt dt | | woxtt %. de = f Boost lot at From © but using, Vinnit= a O od 4. Od (deta pate — P dst +t dt S [x a hart [. == P hac Mocrt dtWw Jecvi ~ Re = - J tan prt dt Lx Rar = f het Poort dt A da =) Rect Port dt =P pret alt nee =e i " o Fon @ de > - & w(t] Fw dt = = 8 at LU \n(Qeert) | dt “5 taf tseei | - - Din ern)- nee) -- In 4) (2522) - ~ f pot at > S53 7 ere = pct at n Pe = es —— >4 noe = n Joc ~ > > > n Pac Gf yast dt —-—_ px = - d&&e Dx A (Lx) = - phe fe fest at - F ton pert dt dxrt |, = - § tas pyre lt Bx - Rin = “Pte Port dt hoe ~ Ade = } fest, Mast dt l= nPe = ft tRe Proert ol nga = { ER pect dt ry6. alm oe = aPe- mJ seen almJa = Lin = Lacvnem 4 im = Socn = Lees nse Bx Rox ~ nPaoc ~ nim Be = nPx — Pees mPocen = nPoc C\~ mPacen) = nPocs mJ ocin =). >Ade n From @) Me > =) & Ue) = he Mx But - Lx foo = +(e) - lien Loein ~ Loe n Moc = lim 2oe = Leen | ne Rox hn = lim n4 x azo A a A | Examples _usin LTP poe = STE, fnad Loe 2 inspection Slicwo-=)=- Wo Loc = 100-26 then = 4 From (A a [ee @ M i ARE. Boe must be 100-2 aa 100 - 3cpx = = Se) Roe - -£0T wed] } pe PE Tne] dx Ps rane = = \In(tse) ~ in| ioo-se | = In(2x) ICO- cc = koe 2. be = conga Vex Find a) 10Px bh) 1S Qo 1 . ~} c.c3aai dt a) ioRe = e* _[e-o382 €q° =e _ O.3921 =e = _OS75636 547 OS TSSSESYT _ Foorardt b) iISsQx = = t <5 Locaaat eS =l-e \ - 0.555235373ay = O4Yyeya 2 a) a tRe b) & eRe sets ds 3) & tRe = & ole | ~§ pees ds § - = af * SL Spare ds | 7 ~G Hects )e = c Fe t Pac b) & tRe = do Consider de Line l= 3 GRY tPe ae CR = eRe EDGR - Px & Cin EY] = (Re Ln (eetd- Ine) ] = tPc[ de et) 2 (2)] Qocst ta | ~ EPL pee - poate]_Tadentibies & Met Genera Resscning Re = ‘con fiocrt dt =" oot 8 x o Co oo the works since tolal # people ube die in this spon <® # people alive ol cae 2c a ALL peagle olive WILL die Pole + we inteqrle. oll cor properties since we cssume Joe 40 “be o centinucus, Rncken. and hus doc 2. do = f Reet fuert dt J do = # peaple usho die belueen sc anh octl “i molies sense to integyole, a one yor spon ort a we. 3s" dies + will cover all Axcrt = # people alive al actt { peste volues Berl = # people ho die ol octt ae 5 \ 1 J alive AND wstontly deod J tee port ot 3 Jr the integgol ust Heep caunt ond produce @ number Rr doeeo ne Hof deowis berueee oxy tes ond > x hen sc is neoghve , the exponential Rnction prchuces values oshich ore lees than 4 we associate such volues sith pmbabilities. 2 the ayealer the velue ol) He aS | the buser your “cummulotive probolsibhy DF sorvival Nise the orecier the ett, The shenger the Buco of martality aX the lwoer the probably oP survival. For mt the onecter then the lower unur probability of Sl Hoo ily & sural - suviol FW N= 20 5 probably o? surtieal = ©. DY 2c = l- oe Living, ond eine deack ore complements. oP each other. Thus), the leuser usar probotsihy, sic wvina, , the oyecer oper prbolilihy ® ano, 7 anck vise vessatn n= = J Pac [oert dt similoc ts doc , except now we're dealing, usith the peteoblile, oP dana aw U % et ‘ocean, coos readily ‘possech # time spon UP pst =® pobobilihy DP suring, up to ony ove 4 C&en) ond then dying, 2 ecley | oMer thot nam Gy = bol 6. nfm Fox { ER acre cit a Some os 5. except now we have the condition thot o Wie musk sunive Brn ugars. belbee duina. v UsBo usina, Reimann Sums ase con ogpresimate the orea DY using secknales di cerigin soidth ond ot cock one. intervol Ce, Bg, A) the life boc o certain prekobilht of’ dying, tie. probocilily remains. constont. ol each ao% intenvol - oS Seen by the height oP the teclencles.) ~ (Buk, since Joe is @ conhnuus Rnchon, there is 0 unique grsbabiily el ching at each momest. Edo the we melve the cic’ oP each Yectonole roRnitely smoll , avin, us ot coch point the instonton’ous. cate reartalhi, (pe) Thus we toe — lim ~ n>oEstmabing Mex. Bern the Life “Bikie From the Ke tdde we con Back a, Roe, che , Poe. onc qre, mene. oP cahich ore used oath respect to oe in theic 2 current terms. There cre bese thet can Ibe. useck uhen estimating, floc the. lite. babless + 4. Hort, % = In( Poe) = we hoe Pe im the 2 pe tk Enea Lect, & = te Ree) AP pose at From identity 3+ ne =e * 2 passe ak Pe = e* ee ; e | rece Me)= peat - in (Pac) = - } floc st dt >. ~\n(Ped= J part dt % Plas, vsing, tow * 6 { Als) de t= the average of Me where t € [x11] oy 7 , Lae con eshmote this cveroag. as. pls a oe - Rimi = aM] Meath # - In(Px) which wetre a frutna, to Poa |2 Woe #7 Lin Re) + ICR) | aioe = exp &- 5 part ok we ‘es 4 Y > v 7 N. _ Asses From identity 4 2 =f Part dt 2Px1- e* by sulbshtuhon s= t+] Ce wed flees ds = dt ==\ ) fb few fines a YN TY YN be fe cae In CaP = ~ Spare ot » New, soln Five = a= J P(e) dc - ee ‘ 5 - e Ibe cuerooe, WV pe Re telayes ‘lis =\ Pxst dt, Ore toby Ne can estimate this Overage aS fs Poe In Ca Pen) & = 72 pice 2 Mx» -@ In (oP) oe 4 |n Ce. Re) ® Pe 2 - 5 [ln CRes) * In Ce) | z 24 Examples using ie Tables, 1. Usine, the ELT AS Coles ) cateulate. Method 4 aPuy aluy. -2duy =f Gav + Poy Gas) Oday + Gide) dys) o.coay + (\- 0.0024) 0.00266) i eeu bye Sp ccpas Lys = 95266 2 0.99y9, Lag 9575) implies echort doko Eshmote Mea Com ELTA ¢ moles) From the ie tele flsr = access. not If: Fay < Pal io 1 fl oO -( a > de Methock Q: 2 Ry Maa ax -4+ Lin CRa) + \n(Px) | hese eskimo ~ ions ave very re g. sccurake, wa Ln Cer) + in Ge) | Se gues) a1 310 2a ~ a Lin (GrSse a1 £2) AT aes) | open whe the “rext Curlese ie) X oooasy2040 , = OR Man ¥ x -4 Lan (= qa) r In (i= qu.) | x -40\0G- e.cocay ) + \nCi-o ocoat) | ¥_0.0085y200_, Moe eMeient Y, P+ Using, the same WR bebe , caleulote the Pecbatalit, tht WME aged 2O dies between the aces of UO ad 42. sero ae oF GO owe Y £. o = obo: aq 40 i L yo . L- 4a.) Sese Lye = yo - Lyo £30 = 96 500 - 96 155 } NeYY a1 645 = _9.003533207 td Deferred “TRbalollities oe) Jj eoth alm cc is the prebabilily thot a Ve oc now, dies un the. oges decid and cnn n| mdr = Recsn = Locnem Bx [Central Rote £ Dstallsy ron-whearr coe. S Mac is the prsbabily that o Ife ogec etiseen a and oc dies bekre ctkaining, the exact ogg ol « Me = dee “ f fe dt > not on integer CSince seme liv wail contrbule lesz. theNow Le = J tas Lac is the number of Person Genes between the ages =x anck oc+l TT le ep 7 . = people % peFBON Ueat ib ie tne o! the uear each pesson contributes. Meortaltu a Don-Thteage MN ve. Loot, of = : o 7 Mat 3 Th the case where we are required be calculate bbe ond > ‘ ether Rinctions ct non inl ORS, WWE CaN USE one ot the llousing, boo assumpbions 4. OnRem distrbubion deaths Conn) 2. Constant Roce of mortally | Unikecan Distribution ot Deaths. Copp) The Sssiprption con be deriveck Rom considering dee be be a Series cl’ streicht lines betseen int ea de con then oo eg .| Ose fctt = fe = Deen - foo | t-9o 1-90 ore Soy behveen . Afferent in hart - boc = t CQeri ~ kx ) Se a Bact = Dn Boe Bacv) as Aare = de - bd (0) shuicht line ys mx te | YU Dut Cequ (0) Stl Lest) = Se (Le - bbe) = - doc4. Moc = ee 1- 44x) (Mee = dex x hee Lf ert dt Doe = do xy ha kx LE Rast dt qe x f ek at = 4 SL tPe dt ue LU - ts de) dt . dex Ce- 44794213 a L- 4(4qx)5. Max % Mares Mc = doe Lhe dt = of’ Beet port dt wtp Fert port dt yy Loe UT feest abt dx = L EPoe, Mocit, dt £ tRe dt 1 But Toc = £7 Pax Mast ot because. the prob of! “ &(9=) = bP Peer Aging mexcases as © increases. PE Also, uncer the UBD ossumphion foe Cereases, nile only YE chore o¢t