CHAPTER 13 Economic growth in the Outer Islands, 1910-1940 J. Thomas Lindblad ‘Today's rapid economic change in Indonesia is highly dependent on external factors. Not surprisingly, a high degree of correlation may be established between gross domestic product per capita and exports in the 1970s and 1980s.’ This invariably brings to mind late colonial times when the Indonesian ar- chipelago was drawn into the orbit of an expanding world market. This contribution aims at improving our appreciation of the fundamental continuity in Indonesia with respect to the link between export performance and regional economic development. As is well known, the Outer Islands constitute the geographical base of economic expansion in both late colonial and post-colonial Indonesia. These regions outflanked Java in terms of earning export revenue already in the early 1920s and their share in the total became still more overwhelming during the commodity boom in the 1970s.? As is also well known, the late-colonial process of economic expansion gained momentum around 1910 and culminated in the late 1920s, with total exports climbing from less than half a billion guilders to 1.5 billion guilders or more.” The focus of this study is on the Outer Islands during the period of sustained economic expansion and its aftermath, i.e. the years 1910-1940, the three final decades of uncontested Dutch colonial rule. External performance and internal development are obviously interrelated but it is not readily apparent which came first or how strong the link was. It can be argued, both in general and for Indonesia in particular, that domestic demand predominated over foreign demand in furthering economic expansion.‘ The issue at stake is really whether colonial Indonesia experienced economic expansion because of its integration into the world market or because of integration within the archipelago. Clearly the link between external performance and internal development would be stronger in the former than in the latter case. But perhaps that is not the main point. More importantly, the link would be quite different in the two cases. Export-induced expansion is particularly likely to change the structure of regional supply, whereas integration within the archipelago would presumably depend more on the generation of regional demand. It is not very practical to search for two different things at the same time, Therefore we will, in line with recent historiography, start ont with the hypotiesis that growth eusned INecalles oq tetaeat Possibilities opening up in foreign markets, at any rate as far as the Outer Islands are concerned. Subsequently we will try to find out the extent to which this exogenous growth impulse was incorporated into regional economic development in the Outer Islands. Depending on the results, it might prove fruitful to consider the alternative hypothesis that the impetus to growth was not exoge- ‘ous in the first place. Ideally the issue would be resolved by comparing regional income or product With both foreign and intra-Indonesian trade. However, the present state of quantification in Indonesian economic history does not allow any such exercises.” Effects of an exogenous growth impulse may materialize in numerous arenas of regional economic & Dipindai dengan CamScannerdevelopment inch ‘can identify such effects by studying the following variables: population growth, the linkage between exports and imports. Realizing economic expansion necessarily implie labour market, which in turn is difficult to reconcile with stagnating population growth. Us hypothesis of an expansion induced by foreign demand, we expect regional supply to be determined above all by export production which, however, does not preclude other lines of production as well, Imports may serve as @ good indication of regional demand, in particular when the range of production at home is largely confined to unprocessed goods, as was indeed the case with the Outer Islands in colonial times.* The linkage between exports and imports, finally, reveals the extent which export revenues in fact did generate new regional demand. Using these variables we may formulate four conditions for a high extent of incorporation of the ‘exogenous growth impulse into regional economic development. The conditions are all necessary, but not sufficient separately. The four conditions are as follows: (2) arapid growth of the indigenous population; @) _ahigh level of exports per capita; @) _ahigh level of imports per capita; (4) _astrong linkage between exports and imports. Population figures refer to the indigenous population, as this category by its very nature represented the firmest demographic basis for incorporating new demand into the regional economy. Besides, this ‘group mostly constituted the overwhelming majority of the total population. Annual figures are projected using constant growth rates inferred from surviving census data (Appendix, Methodological note). {In our formulation, sustained expansion presupposes that exports (or imports) increase faster than population. Exports and imports are measured in terms of value whenever I refer to aggregations of heterogeneous products or total effects on purchasing power. All trade values are rendered in eurrent prices because the analysis is oriented towards comparisons across regions rather than over time.” ‘As a logical corollary to the conditions stated above, a lack of incorporation of the external growth impulse is revealed by slow population growth, low levels of exports and imports per capita, and & ‘weak linkage between earnings from exports and expenditures on imports. he In addition to the brief initial digression on historiography below, my argument contains two parts, ‘one concerning demography and exports and the other one focusing on the generation of demand Imports. In a concluding section the balance is drawn up, offering an opportunity to ‘theme of continuity between late colonial and post-colonial developments. Dipindai dengan CamScannereconomic history of the Outer Islands." This was not so much on account jn total exports of the Outer Islands (about one-third) but rather because its itlustrated the potentials and pitfalls of an excessive reliance on imported factor natural resources. Thee Kian Wie's authoritative study shows us how even rapid ‘a rather limited impact on local economy.” In addition, East Sumatra housed the lar population in colonial Indonesia, which alone justified special attention for the labour Western estates. Stoler and Breman persuasively argue that severe labour regimentation was p parcel of the economic system as introduced and maintained by Western enterprise in Deli! ‘work on Kalimantan, southeastern Sumatra, Amboina and Aceh testifies to the end of the near ‘monopoly Deli has had in the historiography of the Outer Islands." i ‘The story of export expansion in late colonial Indonesia has been told several times from vvaryiny angles. Caldwell and Van Leeuwen stress the extension of the range of exports to include commodity such as oil, rubber and copra for which world market perspectives were extremely favourable ‘whereas Booth convincingly argues that much of the proceeds from export expansion were draine, away.” Elsewhere I myself place the export expansion in the context of either the trade exchangy with the colonial mother country or the process of colonial state formation in ‘Indonesia during thy early twentieth century." These cumulative efforts deliver a multi-faceted impression of profoun, change in the Outer Islands between about 1910 and 1930, a change involving both stronger mutus, links and integration with the outside world, thanks to the initiatives of Western as. well as indigenowy entrepreneurs. ‘The juxtaposition of greater attention for regional detail and the perception of a commonly share} experience invite attempts to create homogeneous groups of individual provinces. Elsewhere # ‘experiment with different principles of clustering regions among the Outer Islands, including the region’s share in total foreign trade, the surplus percentage of exports as a measure of drainage o) revenue and, finally, a combination of geographical proximity with common structural characteris, tics." In a slightly different vein, Clemens contrasts similarities between regions in terms of impor demand and the unprocessed character of export supply with differences as to both the specific rang* Of exportables and the subsequent growth path.'* The present contribution starts where these studies ‘end, and aims at bringing us one step further in understanding economic change in the Outer Islands of colonial Indonesia. ad 1 POPULATION AND EXPORTS tis probable that the total population of the Outer Islands increased from ‘0 some 20.7 million in 1940. Indigenous population groups predominated Dipindai dengan CamScanner236 Lindblad ‘generated t0 the extent that purchasing power increased among the indigenous population. This applied particularly to foreign foodstuffs and consumer goods since the investment activities ofthe indigenous population were not likely to draw heavily on technology and equipment from abroad, “The most populous provinces among the Outer Islands were South Sulawesi (the one-time residency ‘of Celebes), West Sumatra, Bali, East Sumatra and Timor, in that order. In 1930, our best benchmark. Year, these five provinces taken together accounted for $5 % of the total, which was slightly less than in 1920 (57 &). The least populous provinces were Belitung, Bangka, Jambi, Riau and Bengkulu, all with less than 2 % each." More globally, Sumatra (including surrounding smaller islands) contained about 45 % of the grand total, leaving 23 % to South Sulawesi, 21 % to the Lesser Sunda Islands (including Maluku) and 12 % to Kalimantan. The geographical distribution of the indigenous population apparently had litle in common with the location of economic centres. The tiny non-indigenous population was very unevenly distributed throughout the archipelago. East ‘Sumatra alone housed one-quarter of the Europeans and one-third of the Chinese living in the Outer Islands. High concentrations of Europeans were also found in West Sumatra, South Sulawesi, Amboina and Southeast Kalimantan, each with one-tenth of the European total. Chinese settlements of any significance outside East Sumatra were confined to Bangka, Belitung and West Kalimantan, together accounting for another one-third of the Chinese population."" Links between sizeable non- indigenous populations and a heavy orientation towards production for export may be established in some cases, notably for East Sumatra, Bangka and Belitung and to a lesser degree for Southeast Kalimantan and West Kalimantan. ‘The combination of uneven distributions of non-indigenous and indigenous populations on occasion resulted in an ethnic composition deviating markedly from the overall norm for the Outer Islands. Bangka and Belitung formed the most extreme cases, with @ non-indigenous share in the regional population total at 40-50 %. East Sumatra, West Kalimantan and Riau were also characterized by a far larger non-indigenous contribution than the average, about one-eighth instead of the average 3-4 4%. In such regions the development of demand for foreign imports was not exclusively an indigenous affair. This was true especially for foodstuffs, as few Europeans and Chinese were inclined to grow rice Variation was also rampant in the pace at which the indigenous population grew. The average: annual rate of growth is estimated at slightly above 1% for the 1920s, which certainly indicates rather slow growth." Regional rates, however, varied from a mere 0.2 % (Bali) to 3.7 % (Manado). In ten provinces the indigenous population grew at least as fast asthe average. This list includes three ceases with growth rates in excess of 2 % (Manado, Amboina, West Kalimantan) as well as four Provinces slightly above the general average (Belitung, Lampung, Aceh, Bengkulu) leaving three at the average level itself ambi, Southeast Kalimantan, South Sulawesi). It is noteworthy both that this list includes regions known to lag behind in economic development 8. Amboina, Lampung, Bengkulu) and that it excludes regions renowned for their export performance (e.g. East Sumatra, Palembang, Riau). Apparently no clear-cut link may be established between demographic change and economic development, not in the sense of population growth being & Dipindai dengan CamScanner1 prerequisite of growth nor in the sense of economic expansion accelerating the growth of population, Yet that is not our primary concern. For the purposes of analysing the incorporation of ‘an exogenous growth stimulus into the regional economy, we are more interested in the pace of indigenous population growth as an indication of the potential of expansion of the domestic market. Such potentials did exist in the ten regions identified above, Whether the potentials also materialized is quite a different matter. Our second precondition for a successful spillover of the exogenous stimulus refers to the ‘magnitude of export revenue, not merely in absolute terms but above all as expressed per capita. In other words, regional earnings must be sizeable, not only on account of the large size of the regional ‘economy but also relative to other regions of lesser size. In order to better understand the variations in export earnings per capita we need to recapitulate the general contours of export expansion as it occurred in the Outer Islands during the late colonial period. The single most striking facet of the ascendancy of the Outer Islands as a successful exporter of raw materials is the rapid enlargement of volume as opposed to value. Physical quantities continued to increase even after 1925, when the aggregate export value reached its zenith at almost one billion ‘guilders (six times the level in 1910).”" In fact, many producers of raw materials sought compensa- tion in larger quantities as prices started to fall in the late 1920s. This process was only accelerated in the early 1930s as world market prices fell to abysmal levels, but now a full compensation was no longer within reach. By 1933, at the nadir of the Depression, the aggregate value of exports from the Outer Islands fell to one-quarter of a billion guilders, or less than the level in 1914. Meanwhile export volumes climbed far above the level of the 1920s for main commodities such as rubber, oil, copra and coffee (Appendix, Figure 1).” Only tin stayed at the level of the preceding decade and only tobacco declined as compared to previous levels ‘The continuous expansion of export production, under virtually any circumstances, presupposed ‘considerable flexibility in factor inputs. There were several variations on this theme, Labour inputs ‘ould be manipulated at ease in indigenous rubber and copra production by both the access to family labour and the wide range of options in the trade-off between rice cultivation and commercial agricul- ture.” On Western tobacco and rubber estates the Coolie Ordinance secured a sut ‘supply of labour during the initial phase of expansion whereas, paradoxically, its abolition maximized flexibility for the planters once the Depression had begun. In the oil sector, massive capital investments in equipment facilitated a larger output due to higher productivity * ‘The process of physical enlargement was effectuated during a protracted period of time with an impact which often differed substantially from one region to the next. As a result there was a con- tinuous reshuffling of regional stakes in the supply of the major export products (Appendix, Figure 2)2* In rubber East Sumatra lost whilst Jambi, Palembang and both Kalimantan provinces gained. In oil the pendulum swung from Southeast Kalimantan to Palembang. In copra South Sulawesi and ‘Manado enhanced their traditionally strong positions at the expense of West Kalimantan and West ‘Sumatra. The greatest stabi ity was noted in rcv thote sete which recive he east powefo| Dipindai dengan CamScanner238 Lindblad prerogative) and coffee (with Palembang and West Sumatra in the lead). [As the export expansion proceeded, each region developed a unique pattern of specialization in supply. Various combinations of raw materials often predominated the range of exports, e.g. rubber ‘and tobacco from East Sumatra or rubber and copra from West Kalimantan or rubber and pepper from Aceh, Elsewhere, specialization took the form of a heavy reliance on one monoculture, such as rubber from Jambi, copra from South Sulawesi and Manado or pepper from Lampung. Combinations ‘of raw materials with commercial foodstuffs were less frequent but did occur, e.g. with coffee and ‘copra from West Sumatra. At the other extreme the combination of agricultural raw materials with oil proved a powerful mechanism to promote a fast and balanced regional expansion as in Southeast Kalimantan and Palembang.”” This testifies to the diversity of paths all leading to a successful export performance among the Outer Islands. In the 1920s, the prime decade of export expansion as far as revenues go, East Sumatra alone accounted for 32 % of the total value of sales abroad from the Outer Islands. Southeast Kalimantan followed in second place at about 20 %, leaving only 11 % to third-ranking Palembang. Between them these three regions thus earned 63 % of the total and if we include another three major regions, i.e, Sulawesi, West Kalimantan and West Sumatra, the combined share reaches 77 %.* In other words, the momentum of export expansion in the Outer Islands was concentrated in a relatively smal umber of regions. Development over time differed among the spearheads of expansion (Appendix, Figure 3).” East Sumatra most faithfully followed the pattern for the Outer Islands as a whole, whereas both Palembang and Southeast Kalimantan deviated from the norm, albeit in different ways, Palembang ‘grew faster than the average in the 1920s and managed to sustain the high level in the 1930s, whereas Southeast Kalimantan grew slower than most in the 1920s and fell back severely in the 1930s. This is particularly interesting as both regions based their relative success on the same type of duality, combining indigenous rubber with Western oil. Yet it appears that the divergent paths chosen in the 1930s reflected a fundamental shift of emphasis in oil production in colonial Indonesia which in tura ‘was occasioned by Standard Oil’s infringement on the Royal Dutch/Shell monopoly.” ‘Among the centres of expansion in the second tier, just below the apex, South Sulawesi virtually copied the path taken by Southeast Kalimantan in growing slowly during the 1920s and lagging eve? further behind in the 1930s. West Kalimantan and West Sumatra, however, displayed a closet resemblance to the pattern of Palembang, but only during the 1920s. Both lacked oil and thus also the opportunities of sustaining expansion in times of depression. For, even if the refineries were hit badly by the Depression, the price fall was less dramatic than for agricultural raw materials and the recovery was swifter. In addition there were no artificial restrictions on supply as in rubber, and the possibilities of expanding by processing more were incomparably better. Now that we know who expanded in the exports from the Outer Islands and why, the time has come to confront performance with demography. Average export earnings per capita in the Outet Islands as a whole increased from 25 guilders (in current prices) in the 1910s towards 42 guilders ia the 1920s, but declined to 21 guilders in the 1930s. The reduction of the average even below ifS_ Dipindai dengan CamScannercarlier level (in the 1910s) shows us the usefulness of measuring in per capita the aggregate export value during the 1930s to the level of the 1910s was in fact: per capita terms, since the population continued to grow in the meantime.* ‘The juxtaposition of variations in population growth and export expansion produces an | ranking of regions by average export value per capita (Appendix, Table 1).” The time is striking, with only minute differences in ranking between the three decades. Besides, egree of continuity appears higher between the 1920s and the 1930s than between the 1910s and th 1920s.” Six provinces registered an export revenue per capita above the average for all Outer Islands during all three decades. These six regions are: Riau, Belitung, Southeast Kalimantan, East ‘Sumatra, Palembang and Jambi. Another three regions - West Kalimantan, Bangka and Lampung - ‘were above the general average during one of the three decades. | ‘A high export value per capita does not necessarily coincide with a large magnitude of total exports. The high score for Riau, Belitung (and Bangka) and Jambi above all reflects the exceptionally small size of the regional population. ‘The type of exports often enters the equation here as well. In many cases shipments from Riau consisted of transfers from the oil depots of Royal Dutch/Shell, whereas Bangka and Belitung delivered primarily tin with a high value per labourer involved in production, By the same logic the low scores for South Sulawesi and West Sumatra derive from their comparatively large populations. However, the extreme per capita values in Bali, let alone Timor, tellus that these regions were virtually untouched by the process of economic expansion. But population growth and substantial export earnings are not enough to sustain economic growth inthe region. The revenue must be spent in the appropriate way and, above all, inthe right place. We need to take a closer look at how the expansion of exports affected regional demand. IL IMPORTS AND DEMAND GENERATION Prior to the extension of Dutch colonial rule over the Indonesian archipelago, many of the Outer Islands probably engaged in more intra-Asiatic trade in various consumer goods than has often been appreciated in the literature. Nevertheless the impact of the formation of a colonial state and the concomitant integration of the colony into the world economy must not be underestimated. It entailed 4 shift from merchant trading of a perhaps rather transient character to a more profound restructuring, — of the regional economy. This resulted in the establishment of permanent facilities for export — Production - estates, mines, refineries - and also in the exploration of new channels of regional — commerce which in turn were often marked by a segmentation along ethnic lines.” Tt was beginning of the transition to a different type of economy, the one so familiar from textb Western experience. Yet the transition was uneven and incomplete as long as the m ‘f production remained almost exclusively geared towards exports. Instead of the cor Dipindai dengan CamScanneraE 240 Lindblad other. New export production stimulated demand for imports in several ways. More export revenues obviously implied an increase in regional purchasing power. Demand for both consumer goods and foodstuffs increased as coolie populations on Western enterprises grew and also as more indigenous residents shifted to producing for export. The arrival of immigrant settlers and closer contacts with foreign markets also meant a shift in tastes and preferences favouring purchases of goods that could not easily be procured in the region itself. Moreover, export production at times presupposed inputs that had to be imported, but this depended both on the type of production and the technology applied. In fact only the oil industry required imports of machinery and equipment of any significance, whereas the labour-intensive production in estate agriculture, let alone indigenous commercial agriculture, could manage without much imported capital goods.”* There was little reason for an exporter in the Outer Islands, whether European, Chinese or indigenous, to ship his commodities abroad via another port in the Indonesian archipelago.” But this. ‘must not be assumed to hold true for imports as well. Batavia and Surabaya operated as general distribution centres for the western and eastern part of the archipelago respectively, whereas main cities in the Outer Islands such as Medan, Padang, Palembang and Macassar (Ujung Pandang) fulfilled similar functions within the narrower confines of adjacent regions.” As mentioned above, detailed statistics on interregional shipping and trade do exist, but are as yet not processed to such an extent that a systematic analysis can be executed. For largely pragmatic reasons we are thus compelled to treat foreign imports as a proxy for all imports entering a region. The shortcomings of such an approach are, however, in part alleviated by focusing on relative positions across regions and relative changes over time rather than stressing absolute magnitudes. In addition we expect the danger of possible distortions to diminish over time as direct contacts with foreign markets were intensified, # development which is suggested by the successive establishment of branch offices of major retail traders on locations throughout the archipelago.” Total imports rose markedly during the 1920s as compared to the 1910s but the Depression inthe 1930s pushed the decadal average down below the original level (Appendix, Figure 4): Several leading regions adhered to this general pattern with slight variations, especially in the pace of expansion during the 1920s. Those in Sumatra (both East and West) lagged behind the averase whereas those in Kalimantan (both Southeast and West) increased purchases from abroad at a fastet rate, An explanation for this difference may be found in the rise of indigenous rubber in Kalimantan, which assumed dimensions unparalleled in East or West Sumatra. Just as in the case of exports, Palembang’s imports deviated from the general norm by suffering less than most from the Depression. Total imports, which had been rising exceptionally fast during the 1920s, did fall in the 1930s but not as steeply as elsewhere. Apparently the rapid enlargement of capacity in the oil industry necessitated substantial imports of capital goods which thus ote a Partial compensation for the decline in demand for consumer goods caused by the Depression." Its, however, not easy to identify an unambiguous relationship between the regional compositiol of foreign imports on the one hand and the rise and fall of aggregate imports entering the regio® & Dipindai dengan CamScannertho other. The imports into East Sumatra and West Kalimantan dominated by rice, but the developments over time differed Xalimantan and Southeast Kalimantan looked very different, with the later above food, and yet the path of development was virtually the same, South ‘centrated just as heavily on imports of consumer goods as did West Sumatra, but the ¢ ‘the Depression was less severe.”® # ‘The largest slice of imports destined for the Outer Islands was claimed by East approximately one-third of the total. Second place, representing 10-15 % of the total, was ‘occupied by Southeast Kalimantan and from 1925 by Palembang. Third place, which was ‘about 10 %, saw South Sulawesi being pushed aside by Southeast Kalimantan but not for long; the two changed positions again in the 1930s, now to the advantage of South Sulawesi. Such manoeuvres testify to a slightly lesser stability in the geographical pattern of imports as opposed to exports. Palembang’ rise to prominence came earlier among imports, whereas the relative decline of Southeast Kalimantan was steeper. - ‘Taken together, the three highest-ranking regions accounted for more than ‘one-half of total imports entering the Outer Islands. The combined share even increased from 51-52 ‘% in the 1910s and 1920s to 58 & in the 1930s, which in turn above all reflected the capability of Palembang to retain imports at a high level during the Depression. The large proportion of total imports claimed by a relatively small number of regions reveals a concentration of demand which is strikingly high, considering in Particular the distribution of the population. In fact, the five highest-ranking regions in the 1930s, including West Sumatra next to the four already mentioned, received 77 % of all imports whereas the five most populous regions by 1930 accounted for 55 % of the total population. ‘The amount of money one could spend on foreign purchases depended highly upon where one lived in the Outer Islands (Appendix, Table 2). Import expenditures per capita displayed much variation across regions just as export revenues per capita did. However, in terms of money the range was shorter on the import side than among exports and showed less high extremes although still containing very low values. ‘The average import value per capita for all Outer Islands taken together rose from 10 guilders in the 1910s to 17 guilders in the 1920s but fell to a mere 7 guilders in the 1930s. Just as ‘in the case ‘of exports, the reduction in the 1930s was the result of declining trade aggregates aggravated by simultaneous population growth. Expressed in relative terms, the reduction was steeper than in the case of exports. i In eight regions a larger than average amount was spent on foreign imports during atleast two of the three decades considered here. This group included three of the leading importers - East Southeast Kalimantan and Palembang - and four regions with tiny populations: Bangka, Jambi and Riau. West Kalimantan occupied an intermediary position both in terms of total and population. It is noteworthy that all eight regions also appeared on the corresponding I on higher-than-average export revenues per capita. pons gia le ‘The ranking of regions according to per capita imports changed only m Dipindai dengan CamScanner242 Lindblad continuity being especially pronounced in the 1920s as compared to the 1910s. This result roughly coincides with what we found for the various rankings by exports per capita, The degree of congruence is, however, reduced when we turn to a comparison between the rankings by per capita ‘exports and imports in each decade separately. The two rankings deviated more with respect to one another in the 1920s than in what had been the case in the 1910s and the deviation only grew larger in the 1930s.** Closer scrutiny reveals that the discrepancy was caused by widely different positions held by a few regions only. In the 1920s Southeast Kalimantan ranked far higher among export than among imports, but for Bangka and Lampung it was precisely the other way around. The most conspicuous differences in the 1930s were found for Lampung and Manado, both ranking higher on the export side, and also for West Sumatra which ranked higher in terms of imports per capita. This only underscores that the link between export expansion and enlargement of imports was far from straightforward, In order to assess the importance of export revenues in generating new demand it is necessary to systematically analyse the annual variations in both export values and import values, the later functioning, as said, as a proxy for total demand for goods from outside the region. The linkage Detween the two variables is measured by the extent to which variations in imports are statistically explained by variations in exports.“* This is explored by means of regression analysis for each region separately. ‘A simple regression between total exports and total imports is, however, not sufficient. It becomes difficult to ascertain precisely when the common variation over time also implies a causal relationship between the two variables. Exports and imports may move in the same direction if both reflect a more general indicator of the pace of economic life at the time, e.g. the price level. As a frame of reference we need a variable which may also contribute to explaining the level of imports whilst operating independently of exports. Such a variable is the size of the indigenous population. In the long run, population growth is likely to cause outward shifts in aggregate demand, whereas effects on supply will remain limited as long as the economy does not produce a maximum capacity in terms of labout inputs. Our application of multiple regression allows for two regressors, exports and population. Stepwise regression starts out with the regressor explaining most, and only includes the second one if this raises the total proportion explained in the dependent variable. Provided that the model as ¢ whole is statistically significant, there are three possible outcomes that each call for a different inter pretation: (1) Only exports appear in the explanatory model which suggests a strong linkage; (2) Only population appears in the mode! which suggests a weak linkage; @) Both exports and population are included in the model and interfere with one another £0 sth ‘an extent that no definite conclusions may be drawn, ‘The procedure is reiterated for selected imports pertaining to foodstuffs and consumer goods in ordet to better understand precisely which type of demand is being determined by exports and which is 10+ A slight complication arises from the vicissitudes of business fortunes during the late col Period. Both export and import values turned downwards sharply during the Depression, W! & Dipindai dengan CamScannerpopulation presumably continued to grow. AS a result population is likely to e fnfluence on the explanatory power of the model as long as we consider the study.”” This problem is resolved by largely confining the stepwise regression to expansion, 1911-1930, even if this implies a reduction in terms of statistical significance degrees of freedom. Additional information may then be gathered from a second run cove entire period, an experiment where we do not expect to find a minimum of influence of population ‘on variations in total imports. Under such circumstances even a model containing both explanatory variables indicates a weak linkage. A Stepwise regression of both exports and population on imports allows us to differentiate between regions according to presence and strength of the demand-generating linkage between exports and imports (Appendix, Table 3).** Strong linkages are established for six regions with weak ones being more probable in four regions whereas multicollinearity between the explanatory variables precludes 4 definite conclusion for the rest. Most of the regions with strong linkages, i.e. Lampung, Manado, West Sumatra and Bali, are not noted for high export or import values. Conversely, renowned spearheads of expansion such as East Sumatra, Palembang and Bangka and Belitung are all found in the category of weak or nonexistent linkages. This suggests an inverse relationship between the pace of expansion and the extent of demand generation at the regional level. The impact on demand among the indigenous population is likely to be especially pronounced for imports of consumer goods and foodstuffs. This is underscored by regression on such imports alone." All six regions with a strong linkage are characterized by the predominance of indigenous production above Western production. A strong linkage is confirmed in three cases -Jambi, Lampung and Manado - and suggested in three cases for which the more global regression analysis is undecided, Amboina, South Sulawesi and Tapanuli. Significantly, the list of regions with weak linkages is identical whether we consider all imports or only those particularly susceptible to change 48 a result of increasing purchasing power. But exports do not only affect imports in times of expansion. Inclusion of the Depression years into the scope of stepwise regression shows that a linkage, even if not always very strong, may be. established even for regions such as East Sumatra, Palembang and Southeast Kalimantan.” Yet, agzin, itis hazardous to infer too much from such statistical relationships, as a proper frame of reference for comparison is lacking. We will use the linkages as identified during the period of actual expansion in the confrontation with the other criteria for incorporating exogenous growth. : Ti IV BALANCE SHEET AND CONCLUSION Economic growth is not necessarily sustained by its own momentum, and the road from ¢ stimulus to endogenous change is not a straight one. That is a lesson we may learn from t ces ofthe Outer Islands during the process of general economic expansion in the late This paper has investigated the extent to which the initial export-induced in & Dipindai dengan CamScanner244 Lindblad incorporated into regional economic development, thereby making use of four criteria: the pace of population growth, the level of exports per capita, the level of imports per capita and the demand- generating capacity of exports. The average for all Outer Islands taken together served as a yardstick for the first three criteria, whereas a systematic comparison with an independent intervening variable aided decisions with respect to the final criterion. For each criterion, a group of individual regions ‘meeting that criterion was identified. The time has come to draw up the balance and find out whether some regions appear in more than one group. Incompleteness in fulfilling the formal criteria was the rule rather than the exception when regions were assessed for their potential for sustained expansion (Appendix, Table 4). None of the regions met all of the criteria, but five regions did meet three out of the four criteria, albeit in different constellations. A majority of regions (twelve) scored high on one or two accounts but not on the rest. Only one region, Timor, failed to display any hope whatsoever for further economic development, according to the assessment. This survey underscores a certain lack of synchronization between the chief determinants of regional economic development. Both exports and imports could reach impressive per capital levels without the latter depending much on the former. A linkage between export revenue and demand for imports could even fail to produce high import levels or could easily coexist with slow population growth, Two of the leading regions in the expansion of foreign trade, East Sumatra and Palembang, scored strikingly low with respect to population growth or demand generation, whereas the third one, Southeast Kalimantan, only ranked higher because of a slightly higher rate of indigenous population growth. I conclude by highlighting three structural features of economic development in the Outer Islands: (1) The increase of export supply was little affected by demographic factors. @ The increase of import demand differed greatly between regions, @) The capacity of exports to generate demand for imports was often inversely related to the pace of trade-induced expansion. ‘These characteristics of economic structure should be kept in mind when assessing the heritage from colonial times A final point refers to the alternative hypothesis cited above concerning the possibility that ‘economic expansion in colonial Indonesia was incumbent on integration inside the archipelago rather than on integration of the archipelago into the wider world market. Such a view is, however, difficult to reconcile with the lack of coherence between regional paths of economic development as identified here with respect to the Outer Islands.“ Economic expansion outside Java was a matter of divergent Tegional fates, with some regions gaining much and others left hopelessly behind. Today's data on ross domestic product per capita show much of the same variation, from high extremes for Riau and East Kalimantan to extremely low values for Lampung and Nusa Tenggara. That is the continuity in history. Dipindai dengan CamScannerAPPENDIX METHODOLOGICAL NOTE This note concerns the estimation of the indigenous population in the Outer Islands. The preserved census data are notoriously unreliable, with vast areas being covered by rough estimates at best and sheer guesswork at worst. Shifts between censuses often tell us more about successive improvements in the counting procedure than about actual changes in the size of population. One or two examples may suffice. Between the censuses of 1905 and 1920 the indigenous population of the province of Timor climbed from 306,469 to no less than 1,140,708, an increase of more than 270 % in fifteen years’ time. Between the censuses of 1920 and 1930 the indigenous population of Jambi increased by 5,558 individuals or a mere 2.4 % in ten years’ time. Both developments appear equally improbable. However, at the time of the last census taken by the Dutch colonial authorities, the one of 1930, the procedure of counting had been improved to such an extent that the outcome appears to reflect reality to a reasonably high degree even if some regions, notably the remote districts of interior Irian Jaya, still escaped the careful attention of the census officials. In 1930, the total indigenous population of the Outer Islands (except the province of Ternate with Irian Jaya) amounted to approximately 18 million, This figure, both as a general aggregate and differentiated by region, can be used as a point of departure for further calculations. In order to systematically investigate the relationship between demography and trade-induced ‘economic expansion we need population figures on an annual level. We may assume a rather stable ‘demographic development over time whenever a population group possesses the following characteris- ties: (1) fairly large size Q) normal sex distribution; @) normal age distribution; 4) negligible migration movements. The indigenous populations of the Outer Islands meet all four criteria, whereas the Chinese or European population groups meet none of them. Therefore we may assume that the annual rate of indigenous population growth in each region of the Outer Islands remained more or less constant over time. This enables us to project annual totals of the indigenous population by region as soon as We have determined the growth rate separately for each region. We cannot use the same method to Teconstruct the non-indigenous segments of the population. 5 The very discrepancy in quality of the data between the census of 1930 and preceding counts, implies that the 1930 census data cannot be used to determine regional growth rates. A comparison between the 1920 and 1930 census data produces growth rates which are far too high Seriously. An ingenious solution to the problem of finding a useful growth rate without _ best data is suggested by Boogaard and Gooszen. They argue that the oe Dipindai dengan CamScanner“remain inferior to the 1930 census, Constant annual growth rates may thus be inf ‘comparison of the data from 1920 and 1927, In the subsequent phase such growth rates are to the 1930 data, thus allowing us both to reconstruct figures for years without a census and to : ‘unreliable figures, including those used for calculating the growth rates in the first place. According to this method the total indigenous population of the Outer Islands in 1920 amounted to about 16 million, instead of less than 14 million as quoted in the official census.” ‘The Boomgaard-Gooszen method was applied to all regions except Ternate (including Irian Jaya). Despite doubts about the quality of the 1930 census data, the method was also applied to West Kalimantan; after all the allegedly lesser quality pertains only to the interior of this province where the population density was low anyway. An exception was made for Jambi where the figures even ‘suggest a decline of the indigenous population from 228,975 in 1920 to 193,151 in 1927, which appears highly unlikely, especially against the background of the simultaneous rubber boom.** For this region a comparison between 1917 and 1930 was considered preferable. ‘The reconstructions allow us to set the average annual growth rate for all Outer Islands in the 1920s. at 1.1 % (Table 5 below), which is rather similar to the rate found for Java in the same period. These rates of growth are used for both backward extrapolation from 1930 to 1910 and forward extrapolation up to 1940. This possibly results in underestimates of population size in the 1930s as the true rate of population growth might have been higher after 1930.” However, the available data do not permit a reconstruction of a rate specific to the 1930s in the same systematic fashion as has ‘been accomplished for the 1920s. Extrapolation produces aggregates for the indigenous population in various provinces (Table 6 below). The totals for all Outer Islands (except Ternate) run as follows: 1910 14,525,889 (estimate) « 1920 16,005,974 (estimate) ' 1930 17,760,171 (census) 1940 19,870,213 (estimate) ‘The size of the non-indigenous population is known for 1920 and 1930 and can be estimated f ‘and 1940 if we assume the same share in the total as in 1920 and 1930: 3 % and 4 % res Dipindai dengan CamScannerguilders in current prices) 1911/20 Prien. 158.78 Belitung 135.61 So.Bast Kalimantan 79.00 East Sumatra 78.30 Palembang 28.37 Jambi 25.30 West Kalimantan 22.77 Bangka 14.57 Manado 14.07 Aceh 13.21 South Sulawesi 9.96 Anboina 8.42 West Sumatra 6.17 Lampung 3.07 Bali 2.41 ‘Tapanuli 2.88 Bengkulu 1.54 Timor 0.09 Source See note 32. Note Belitung included in Bangka for 1931/40- G Dipindai dengan CamScanner1921/30 pindai dengan CamScanner(Model: population) Total imports Jambi (91 ¥) Bangka (89 +) ‘Lampung (87 ¥) Palembang (79 *) Manado (82 %) Bast Sumatra (71%) Bengkulu (85 ) Riau (66 %) Belitung (60 %) So.Ba. Kalimant: West Sumatra (64 *) Tapanuli (77 *) Bali (61 %) Imports of selected consumer goods and foodstuffs Jambi (88 %) Belitung (86 %) Manado (79 %) Bangka (83 *) Aaboina (71 %) Palembang (69 *) Lampung (67 %) East Sumatra (44 ¥) So. Sulawesi (49 ¥) Tapanuli (44 %) Sources Data base on trade statistics as used ii .P. LJ. Touwen, Changing Economy in Indonesia. XIII; foreign trade of colonial Indonesia 1911-1940 (amsterdam Population figures as reconstructed (Table 6 below). — pindai dengan CamScannerPopulation Exports Imports growth per capita per capita G Dipindai dengan CamScannercoh ‘rapanuli ‘Bast Sumatra ‘west Sumatra Rm ‘Palembang anti Bengkule Lampung ‘Banka pelitung West Kalimantan ‘So.East Kalimantan South Sulawesi Manado Bali tinor Anboina Source 939515, 1042930, 1505209 199615 810353 203116 253639 229608 85774 39188 535516 998282 2329123 745985 1556154 1140708 271878 1077830 1594320 (204704 a 949450 234533 276740, 252763, 91646 43607 620300, 1076924 2517646 967715 1576168 1160872 250952 fax data in: P, Boomgaard & A.J. Gooszen, Changing Econ: Population trends, 1795-1942 (Amsterdam 1991) 224. Note 1927 and 1930 used for Jambi instead of 1920 and 1927. G Dipindai dengan CamScanner761484 850726 1338415 1601782 239572 930084 187980 246579 267028 918 32495 453125 So-Bast Kalimantan 1068906 South Sulawesi 2452449 527919 1742707 1565720 187732 862071 938524 1402854 1738951 248345 994846 209970 279277 306313 98037 37854 558989 1191200 2740873 765633 1756482 1605407 270348 975945, 1035382 1470395 1887866 257439 266866 1064117 3136212 234533 261969 316312 351378 107764 44096 639585 3327487 1479366 3063217 3423471 1110386 1610376 1788843 1821800 1646102 1687826 389325 560662 G Dipindai dengan CamScannerNOTES 11. Azis, ‘Key issues in Indonesian regional development’, in: H. Hill, ed., Unity and diver. regional economic development in Indonesia since 1970 (Singapore 1989) 55-74, in particular 73. 2 The share of the Outer Provinces in total exports amounted to 54 % in both 1922 and 1925 and reached 85 % in 1976 and even 94 % in 1981, J.Th. Lindblad, "The process of economic development in the Outer Provinces of the Dutch East Indies’, Journal of the Japan- Netherlands Institute 2 (1990) 208-234, in particular 214; Azis, "Key issues’, 59. 3 WL. Korthals Altes, Changing Economy in Indonesia; VII. Balance of payments, 1822-1939 (Amsterdam 1987) 109-110. 4 Cf. LB. Kravis, "Trade as a handmaiden of growth; Similarities between the nineteenth and ‘twentieth centuries’, Economic Journal 80 (1970) 850-872; P. van der Eng, "The real domestic product of Indonesia, 1880-1989", Explorations in Economic History 29 (1992) 343- 372. 5 The quality of available quantitative data differs for the three sets of variables involved. The figures on foreign trade, differentiated by region, are the best and also readily accessible. See further: A.H.P. Clemens, J.Th. Lindblad & L.J. Touwen, Changing Economy in Indonesia IB. Regional patterns in the foreign trade of colonial Indonesia, 1911-1940 (Amsterdam 1991) 49-98. A comprehensive data base for interregional trade can be constructed, with considerable effort, using official statistics; itis hoped that this important endeavour will be undertaken in the near future, An interesting attempt to estimate aggregate domestic product and income is presented by P. van der Eng; see his "The real domestic product’. However, bold as itis in its assumptions, this reconstruction wisely refrains from any differentiation by region. 6 Cf. 1.Th. Lindblad, Between Dayak and Dutch; The economic history of Southeast Kalimantan, 1880-1942 (Dordrecht/Providence 1988) 207 7 Alternative solutions could draw on: B. van Ark, "The volume and price of Indonesian exports, 1823 to 1940: The long-term trend and its measurement’, Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies 24 (1988) 3:87-120. § AHP. Clemens & J.Th, Lindblad, "Voorlopige bibliografie van de economische geschiedeais van de Buitengewesten, c. 1870-1942’, in: A.H.P. Clemens & J.Th. Lindblad, eds, Het belang van de Buitengewesten; Economische expansie en koloniale staatsvorming in de Buitet- Sewesten van Nederlands-Indié, 1870-1942 (Amsterdam 1989) 283-304. 9 ‘Thee Kian Wie, Plantation a i Ne 7 agriculture and export growth; An economic histor) of Sumatra, 1863-1942 (Jakarta 1977). ae 3 Sei & Dipindai dengan CamScanner12 B 16 ” ALL, Stoler, Capitalism and confrontation in Sumatra’s plantation belt, ‘Maven 1985); J, Breman, Noelies, planters and koloniale politieky Het rwondernemingen aan Sumatra's Oostkust (Dordecht/Providenee Follow-up studies inchde: A. Kamplues, ‘Na Rhemrey; Arbeid terse ondernemingen in de Buitengewesten van Nederlands-Indié, 1904-1998", Economisel= ‘en Sociaal-Historisch Jaarboek 51 (1988) 299-337; A. van Kommer, ‘De ‘aan de Oostkust van Sumatra gedurende de jaren 1900-1940", in: Clemens d Lindblad, delang van de Buitengewesten, 97-118. Lindblad, Berween Dayak and Dutch; B.A. Ranken, "De niet-Europese bijdrage tot de economische ontwikkeling van West-Borneo, 1900-1940", in: Clemens & Lindblad, Het belang van de Buitengewesten, 177-209; A.H.P. Clemens, "De inheemse rubbercultuu int Jambi en Palembang tijdens het Interbellum’, in: Clemens & Lindblad, Her belang van de Buitengewesten, 213-237; L.J. Touwen, ’Voordeel van veelzijdigheid; De economische ‘ontwikkkeling van Palembang en Djambi tussen 1900 en 1940", Economisch- en Sociaal- Historisch Jaarboek 54 (1991) 134-182; R.R.F. Habiboe, "De economische ontwikkeling van_ de Molukken, 1900-1938", in: Clemens & Lindblad, Het belang van de Buitengewesten, 243- 276; M. Gade Ismail, Seuneubok lada, uleebalang, dan kumpeni; Perkembangan sosial ekonomi di daerah batas; Aceh Timur, 1840-1942 (Leiden 1992). Predecessors in the non- Deli tradition include: A. van der Kraan, Dutch rule on Lombok 1900-1940; The development of underdevelopment (Townsville 1980). J.A.M. Caldwell, "Indonesian export and production from the decline of the Culture System to the First World War’, in: C.D. Cowan, ed., The economic development of Southeast Asia (London 1964) 72-101; RJ. van Leeuwen, Indonesia’, in: W.A. Lewis, ed., Tropical development, 1880-1913 (Evanston 1970) 250-282; A. Booth, "Foreign trade and domestic evelopment in the colonial economy’, in: A. Booth, W.J. O'Malley & A. Weidemann, eds, Indonesian economic history in the Dutch colonial era (New Haven 1990) 267-295; A. Booth, “Exports and growth in the colonial economy, 1830-1940’, in: A, Maddison & G, Prince, eds, Economic growth in Indonesia, 1820-1940 (Dordrecht/Providence 1989) 67-96. JTh. Lindblad, ‘De handel tussen Nederland en Nederlands-Indié, 1874-1939", Economisel=~ ‘en Sociaal-Historisch Jaarboek 51 (1988) 240-298; J.Th. Lindblad, "De opkomst van de Buitengewesten’, in: Clemens & Lindblad, Het belang van de Buitengewesten, 1-34, Lindblad, "The process of economic development’, 218-225. The "best principle of clustering appears to be the one using the surplus percentage on the regional balance of trade, A.HLP. Clemens, ‘Regional patterns in the foreign trade of the Outer Provinces 1911-1940), in; Clemens, Lindblad & Touwen, Regional patterns, 33-43, See further: Appendix, Methodological note, ones but has been excluded because of the difficulties in estimating the size of | ‘The residency of Ternate with Irian Jaya can also be counted among the suey oon population, ve Dipindai dengan CamScanner260 Lindblad 18 P. Boomgaard & A.J, Gooszen, Changing Economy in Indonesia; XI. Population trends, 1795-1942 (Amsterdam 1991) 225-228. The small non-indigenous share of total population is also reflected in the low degree of urbanization. In 1930 the largest city in the Outer Is- Jands, Palembang, still only counted less than 90,000 inhabitants. 19 The annual average for all of Indonesia in the 1970s is 2.3 %. Cf. H. Hill & A. Weidemann, *Regional development in Indonesia; Patterns and issues’, in: Hill, Unity and diversity, 3-54, in particular 13. 20 For the most recent general survey of the process of export expansion, see: Clemens, °Regional patterns’ 21 Aggregate export values in: Lindblad, ‘De opkomst’, 29-30; Lindblad, “The process of economic development’, 231. Graphic representation in: Clemens, "Regional patterns’ 22 Based on statistics in; Clemens, Lindblad & Touwen, Regional patterns, 49-98. The index ‘numbers for the decadal averages of export volumes in 1921/30 and 1931/40 are as follows (1911/20 = 100): rubber: 709 and 1207, oil: 193 and 398, copra: 226 and 303, coffee: 391 and 549, tin: 195 and 184, tobacco: 126 and 67. 23 Clemens, "De inheemse rubbercultuur’, 221-223; Lindblad, Berween Dayak and Dutch, 61, 74; Ranken, ‘De niet-Europese bijdrage’, 183; Touwen, "Voordeel van veelzijdigheid’, 153. 24 Kamphues, ‘Na Rhemrev’, 321-323; Van Kommer, "De Deli-Maatschappij’, 107-111 25 Lindblad, "The petroleum industry’, 67. 26 Based on statistics in: Clemens, Lindblad & Touwen, Regional patterns, 49-98. The average percentage share in total exports from all of colonial Indonesia are as follows for the decades 1911/20, 1921/30 and 1931/40 respectively: rubber: East Sumatra: 47.1 - 32.9 - 33.0, Jambi: 3.4 - 11.5 - 8.2, Palembang: < 1 - 5.2 - 7.4, Southeast Kalimantan: 2.4 - 8.9 = 9.4, West Kalimantan: 1.8 - 7.6 - 10.4; oil: Southeast Kalimantan: 49.1 - 65.5 ~42.7, Palembang: 11.1 = 19.5 - 41.7, East Sumatra: 19.6 - 8.6 - 12.5; copra: South Sulawesi: 20.7 - 21.6 - 34.6, Manado: 14.9 - 21.3 - 20.0, West Kalimantan: 10,6 - 16.5 - 14.2, West Sumatra: 7.1 - 7.0 = 4.8; coffee: Palembang: 3.7 - 20.2 - 22.3, West Sumatra: 7.0 - 15.2 - 13.6. 27 The average percentage share of raw materials in total exports was as follows for the decades 1911/20, 1921/30 and 1931/40 respectively: East Sumatra: 72 - 84 - 78, West Kalimantan: 82 - 94 - 96, South Sulawesi: 92 - 92 - 91, West Sumatra; 68 - 55 - 48. The average Percentage share of oil (and oil products) for the decades 1911/20, 1921/30 and 1931/40 Tespectively was: Southeast Kalimantan: 82 - 63 - 78, Palembang: 74 - 68 - 80. These pet ‘centage shares are based on a selection of all exports of any significance which taken togethe® account for 89 % on average of the aggregate value of exports from the Outer Islands. For details, see: LJ, Touwen, 'Computerizing the foreign trade statistics of colonial Indonesia!» in; Clemens, Lindblad & Touwen, Regional patterns, 13-18. Cp. Lindblad, "The process of economic development’, 230. & Dipindai dengan CamScanner2» 30 31 35 36 37 38 39 Economic growth 261 ‘Based on statistics in: Clemens, Lindblad & Touwen, Regional patterns, 49-98. The index ‘numbers for average total export values during the decades 1921/30 and 1931/40 respectively are as follows (1911/20 = 100): Outer Islands: 182 and 102, East Sumatra: 188 and 111, Southeast Kalimantan; 152 and 67, Palembang: 273 and 1276, South Sulawesi: 138 and 72, West Kalimantan; 295 and 133, West Sumatra: 221 and 86. Lindblad, "The petroleum industry’, 61 The deterioration in the 1930s would be even sharper if we allowed for a less conservative rate of population growth after 1930. See Boomgaard & Gooszen, Population trends, 47. Based on trade statistics in: Clemens, Lindblad & Touwen, Regional patterns, 49-98. Population figures as reconstructed (Appendix). An adjustment for sizeable Chinese populations groups was made for Bangka and Belitung (indigenous population enlarged by 75 %), East Sumatra, West Kalimantan and Riau (indigenous population enlarged by 10 %). Bangka and Belitung are combined for the average applying to the years 1931/40 as the trade statistics fail to differentiate between the two from 1935. ‘The rank correlation coefficients for exports per capita are as follows: 1910s and 1920s: 0.92, 1920s and 1930s: 0.97, Cp. AJ.S. Reid, Southeast Asia in the age of commerce, 1450-1680; I. The lands below the winds (New Haven 1988). Examples from Kalimantan in: Lindblad, Berween Dayak and Dutch, 7-55; Ranken, "De niet- Europese bijdrage’, 183-194. ‘This was quite different in the sugar industry in Java, See further: J.Th. Lindblad, "Regional patterns in the foreign trade of Java 191-1940", in: Clemens, Lindblad & Touwen, Regional patterns, 19-31 ‘There were exceptions to this rule, e.g. the registration at times of some of the Bangka tin as exports leaving Batavia or the coal and cement delivered by West Sumatra to other regions in the archipelago. Cf. F. Colombijn, ’Nostalgia for a better future; organization of economic life in a colonial trading town: Padang (West Sumatra) 1906-1942’, Economic and Social History in the Netherlands 3 (1991) 155-182. See also: Clemens, "Regional patterns’, 37; Lindblad, Berween Dayak and Dutch, 210. J.Th, Lindblad, ‘Het bedrijfsteven in Nederlands-Indié in het Interbellum’, Economisch en Sociaal-Historisch Jaarboek 54 (1991) 183-211, in particular 191-194, index Based on statistics in: Clemens, Lindblad & Touwen, Regional patterns, 49-98. The numbers for the average value of total imports in 1921/30 and 931040 rere ey ot follows (1911/20 = 100): All Outer Islands: 186 and 86, East Shnalta IO) ts 93) Palembang: 298 and 180, Southeast Kalimantan: 205 and 81, West Kalimantan; & Dipindai dengan CamScannerPS wd 99, West Sumatra: 151 and 67, n, “Youre van viii, 166, The average sare of ap Towering Palembang increased from 44% Inthe 19208 (which ‘than before or elsewhere) to 65 % in the 1930s, ‘The average percentage share of foodstuffs in the total of foremost imports was as follows ‘for the decades 1911/20, 1921/30 and 1931/40 respectively: East Sumatra: 50 - 44-36, West Kalimantan: 62 - 60 - 64. The average percentage share of capital goods in the total of ‘foremost imports was as follows for the decades 1911/20, 1921/30 and 1931/40 respectively: ‘Southeast Kalimantan; 41 - $3 - 52, West Kalimantan: 6 - 5 - 11. The average percentage ‘Share of consumer goods in the total of foremost imports was as follows for the decades ‘1911/20, 1921/30 and 1931/40 respectively: West Sumatra: 77 - 66 - 55, South Sulawesi: 61 '~ 75 - 72. The selected imports corresponded to 62 % on average of all imports. See further: “Touwen, *Computerizing’, 14. 43 The decrease in exports per capita for all Outer Islands in the 1930s was 50 % with respect ‘w the 1920s and 15 % with respect to the 1910s. The corresponding figures for imports per ‘capita are 60 % and 30 % respectively. 44 The rank correlation coefficients for imports per capita are as follows: 1910s and 1920s: 0.97, 1920s and 1930s: 0.92. 45 The rank correlation coefficients between exports per capita and imports per capita (Tables ‘1 and 2) are as follows: 1911/20: 0.91, 1921/30: 0.86, 1931/40: 0.81. 46 The same procedure is followed in: Touwen, "Voordeel van veelzijdigheid’, 166-168. 47 This is indicated by the multiple regression equations for all Outer Islands. The equation for 1911-1930 runs as follows: M = - 729*10* + 0.16 X + 53.6 P (M = total imports, X = ‘total exports, P = total indigenous population) with all parameters being statistically sig> ‘nificant (R’ = 0.83), The equation for 1911-1940 is: M = 148 * 10° + 0.36 X~ 7.85 P wit ‘only one statistically significant parameter (the one for X). Additional tests by simple correlations between the dependent variable and individual ‘regressors were carried out for regions appearing in the third category where the model ‘included both regressors, Multicollinearity was reaffirmed for all cases except Riau, whet® exports explained far more of the variations in imports than did population, ‘Theretore ‘was moved abe category with strong linkages, Only one case, Southeast Kali displayed a larger proportion explained by population as opposed to exports. No explanatory model could be Pereclied: for Aceh or ect hae porta stuffs consumer goods 18, This obvi introd zhng’, : ously introduces yet i on relations for regions mh ant Manne ag G Dipindai dengan CamScanner“stepwise regression on total imports with total exports and po period 1911-1940 produces explanatory models with exports (with proportion of annual variations in imports explained): ‘%), Jambi (78 5), South Sulawesi (59 %), East Sumatra (55 | 4%), Riau (93 %) and Palembang (50 %). Models combin found for: Manado (88 %), West Kalimantan (80 %), ‘West Sumatra (75 %). No models could be formulated for ce Timor. Ir must be acknowledged that a more conclusive judgement ofthis 1 an extension of this analysis to include Java as well as interregional Hill & Weidemann, "Regional development in Indonesia’, 6-7. — Boomgaard & Gooszen, Population trends, 42-47. An alternati P. van der Eng, Growth and productivity change in Indonesian agric [Research memorandum] (Groningen 1990) 83-85. Cp. J. Ozinga, De economische ontwikkeling der eneseing at Bon bevolkingsrubbercultuur (Wageningen 1940) 31-37. Cp. Clemens, ‘De inneemserubbereultuur, 219-222; Touven, ‘Voordeel van 152-158. Ibidem, 47. Their suggestion for the 1930s is a rate in the ‘% per year. io G Dipindai dengan CamScanner