###Bangladesh’s water crisis and the problem of a ‘green’ solution

The negative impact of a water project involving a nature-based solution in the city of Khulna should
be a cautionary tale for policymakers.

As the world scrambles to address climate change and build resilience to prepare communities for its
destructive impacts, nature-based solutions are being presented as a panacea. These projects, which
leverage nature and natural processes to help alleviate the effects of climate change and harmful
human activity, are increasing in number and scale.

In the Philippines and India, mangrove forests are being expanded in conjunction with existing
breakwaters on coastlines to protect against storms and flooding. Similarly, in South Africa, wetlands
are being restored to recharge groundwater and protect from drought water-insecure cities, like Cape
Town.

Communities globally are encouraged to scale up nature-based solutions and integrate them into
modern infrastructure. A 2021 report published by the International Institute for Sustainable
Development (IISD) concluded that such an approach could save the world $248bn annually in
construction costs for expanding infrastructure.

Governments around the world are investing in research and development of nature-based solutions,
while global financial institutions such as the World Bank are actively involved in funding projects
utilising such approaches.

As urban planning scholars studying water, urbanisation, and climate justice in small and medium-
sized South Asian cities, we agree that nature-based solutions hold promise. But we also suggest
caution. Our work in Khulna, a region in southern Bangladesh facing multiple ecological crises,
provides one example of how integrating nature-based solutions can lead to complicated outcomes
that help some communities while harming others.

Khulna’s ‘nature-based solution’

In 2011, Khulna, Bangladesh’s third-largest city, was facing severe water scarcity. Along with declining
groundwater and pollution, there was rising saltwater intrusion into its freshwater sources. The local
government had several options to address the crisis.

It could build a desalination plant to treat water from nearby rivers. But such installations are known to
be ecologically harmful. For example, a paper from the Canadian-based Institute for Water,
Environment, and Health notes that desalination plants discharge 142 million cubic metres of
hypersaline brine every day globally. That is enough to cover the US state of Florida under 30cm (12
inches) of brine, which can be toxic and incredibly harmful to marine life.

Another option the local government had was implementing tougher water controls on residents and
businesses. This would mean asking residents to conserve water and industries to drop water-
intensive practices and invest in rainwater harvesting systems. Such water conservation policies can
be hard to implement and politically unpopular.

To avoid the negative effects of a desalination plant and potentially unpopular water conservation
policies, the local government opted to construct a “climate-proof” water supply system for which it
managed to obtain foreign funding from the Asian Development Bank and the Japanese International
Cooperation Agency (JICA).
This water supply system was planned to extract water from the Madhumati River in the village of
Mollahat, 40km (25 miles) northeast of Khulna, and bring it to the city. During the rainy season, water
would be processed directly by a water treatment plant and then provided to consumers. During the
dry season, when the salinity of the Madhumati is high, the water would be mixed with low-salt water
collected in a reservoir during the rainy season to decrease its salt concentration before being sent to
the plant.

Policymakers hoped this “nature-based solution” of mixing water would address future problems as
rising seas will continue to increase salinity levels in Khulna’s water. The framing of the new water
infrastructure as climate- and nature-friendly enabled the local government to justify the construction
of the expensive project.

The new water infrastructure, which was finished in 2019, indeed benefitted Khulna residents. It
increased access to piped water from 23 percent of households to 65 percent and provided water
access to some informal settlements that did not have any previously.

The problem the ‘solution’ created

The popularity of the new water system in Khulna was apparent in the interviews we conducted with
the city’s residents. They reported that women could now get water from taps at assigned times
instead of queueing up for hours to collect water from tube wells.
However, the reports from Mollahat were completely different. During our fieldwork in 2018, one of us
spoke to a local resident, Mohammad Liton, who said he barely slept through that year. Liton was
overcome by worry about the rising salinity and low water levels in the Madhumati River, which had
begun to impact his livelihood. Liton argued that the Khulna water project had reduced the availability
of water for fishing and rice cultivation in the Mollahat area.

In January 2017, Liton and other residents of Mollahat staged a protest against the project, which was
impacting the lives of thousands of farmers and fisherfolk living in the village, but the authorities did
not address their concerns.

The project’s environmental impacts statement, which was required by the government of Bangladesh
and the foreign donors and which was completed in 2011, focused narrowly on the water site and
accounted for construction as the only impact on Mollahat.

According to representatives of the Bangladesh Environmental Lawyers Association (BELA) we

interviewed, the scale of the assessment inaccurately accounted for the Madhumati River watershed
as existing only in Bangladesh. The river is a tributary in the complex Ganges River system, with flows
coming from the Ganges in neighbouring India.

The Madhumati River has been heavily affected by the upstream construction of the controversial
Farakka Dam in India’s state of West Bengal, which diverts its waters. The dam has made the river
watershed much more sensitive temporally and ecologically and thus, the additional burden of
drawing water for the Khulna project has significantly strained the river resources and affected
Mollahat and other communities along its basin.

Approaching nature-based solutions with caution

Khulna’s water project should be a cautionary tale – one that can teach policymakers lessons about
what they should and should not do when implementing nature-based solutions.
In this case, while industries and households of Khulna reaped the benefits of the projects, residents
of Mollahat bore the costs. This could have been avoided if the local authorities had consulted with
village dwellers at the construction site and downstream while evaluating the impact of the project.
Their feedback could have been used to adjust implementation.

The local authorities should have also aimed to distribute benefits equally among the population of
the city and the nearby rural communities. For example, they could have asked industries to conserve
water, which would have decreased the strain on the Madhumati River and significantly lessened the
impact on the Mollahat community.

When green approaches are combined with infrastructure, local authorities must ensure that no harm
is done to adjacent communities. Fixing the water problem of a city should not come at the cost of the
devastation of rural communities.

As nature-based solutions are scaled up, we urge policymakers, donors, and communities to be more
cautious. Infrastructure projects, like the one in Khulna, must minimise harmful impacts and help
tackle inequalities at the local level and across regions.

The views expressed in this article are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s
editorial stance.

*** Sonia Ahmed

Sonia Ahmad has a PhD in City and Regional Planning from Cornell University. Her research interests
revolve around small and medium-sized cities’ responses to water and climate change and the politics
surrounding them. She integrates theory with practice in her research as she draws on her 10 years of
experience working in the international development arena, particularly in South Asia.

*** Neema Kudva

Neema Kudva is a Professor of City and Regional Planning at Cornell University. Her research focuses
on small cities and their regions, on institutional structures for equitable planning and development,
and on pedagogical experiments around sustainability planning. She has explored various aspects of
these issues primarily in South Asia but also in the US and across the world with her students and
other collaborators.

### Can China erode the dollar’s power in the Middle East?
Though Beijing might not dethrone the dollar soon, trading in currencies like the yuan could set a
precedent and gradually weaken US’s economic power.

China’s brokering of talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran in March was a further step in the seismic
realignment of the world’s power balance. Beyond this diplomatic victory – while making vast
economic inroads worldwide – Beijing seeks to uproot the US dollar’s hegemony.

Within the Arab world, there have been past attempts to adopt alternative currencies. During Saddam
Hussein’s final years in charge, Iraq sought to sell oil in euros. Additionally, Libya aspired to create a
pan-African gold standard in the 2000s. However, no significant attempts to weaken the US dollar
have emerged, partly accelerated by the 2007-08 financial crisis, which saw moves towards de-
dollarisation diminished.
Yet China’s rapid rise has changed this. Chinese officials have made little secret that they want to
weaken the dollar’s power, which could see more adoption of the Chinese yuan – or renminbi. Doing
so would blunt American economic power - which, along with its military dominance, has allowed the
US to shape the world order.

China is also looking to hedge economically away from the dollar, to alleviate the threat of US
sanctions like Russia has faced, which has also prompted Moscow to increase its renminbi reserves.

With a perceived lack of authority from Washington in the region, Russia’s military offensive in Ukraine
has further reshuffled the Middle Eastern order, with US sanctions on Moscow prompting regional
states to pick sides.

This Ukraine conflict has reinforced the reality that US sanctions can always be imposed, but some
states, including some oil-rich Gulf countries, also have defied Washington, maintaining and even
expanding ties with Russia and China. And with China acting as an economic powerhouse to trade
with, the conflict has undoubtedly further bolstered Beijing’s economic clout in the region.

Ultimately, economic power equals political power. US hegemony in the post-Cold War world order has
largely been achieved through the dollar being the global reserve currency. Any decline in the dollar’s
usage would equally correlate with a drop in US hegemony.

Renminbi in the Middle East

Some Middle Eastern countries have welcomed the opportunity to trade with alternative currencies to
the dollar - an expected consequence of China rising as a leading economic actor in the region. After
all, China has become the Middle East’s largest trading partner, including in key states like the UAE,
Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran.

Take the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has gradually moved away from US dependency over the
past decade and has empowered itself as a country that all global powers must work with. In March, it
contributed to the biggest liquefied natural gas (LNG) deal in Chinese yuan between TotalEnergies and
China National Offshore Oil Corporation. Not only is it significant that Total is a French and Western
company, but also that Abu Dhabi helped drive the move, thus opening the door for the yuan to be
used more.

It certainly reflects a wider shift in the regional bloc, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Saudi Arabia
was also reportedly recently in talks with Chinese officials over selling oil to China in yuan after
President Xi Jinping proposed it in December 2022. The US has traditionally been the largest buyer of
Saudi oil, while the US dollar has been pegged to the price of oil - forming the ‘petrodollar’. This also
granted the US substantial influence over OPEC, meaning relations with Saudi Arabia have been key to
US interests in the Middle East.

To be clear, even if Saudi Arabia did accept payments in yuan – which it might then use to pay for
Chinese imports, this alone would not unravel the dollar’s hegemony. After all, Gulf capitals
unanimously accept the petrodollar isn’t going anywhere and still currently welcome it due to the
stability and liquidity it provides.

Yet, as China’s economic clout advances, reduced US engagement in the Middle East still opens the
door for the renminbi. In February, Iraq announced it planned to accept trade with China in yuan, which
comes after Baghdad faced shortages of the US dollar in its central bank – a worrying situation for an
oil-rich economy. China has already supplanted the US by investing heavily in Iraq’s oil infrastructure,
which the US neglected in the country’s post-war period.
It’s not only the yuan that’s entering Middle Eastern markets. In January, India and the UAE discussed
plans for Abu Dhabi to sell non-oil goods to Delhi in the Indian rupee (INR). The GCC, namely through
the UAE, is evidently propelling this shift in diversifying the economic landscape.

Sanctions and US pressure

New currencies may certainly seem attractive, given how the US has used the dollar to exert political
pressure, backed by financial institutions like the IMF - which critics have seen as an arm of US foreign
policy.

The sanctions on Russia show that the US has used its reserve currency status to coerce and punish
countries. Like Russia, Iran’s central bank has also been choked by US sanctions. It has also
threatened to devalue its own currency to gain the upper hand in trade wars, while Washington also
leverages the dollar’s worldwide reach to boost its own economy.

Such weaponisation of the dollar worked when the US was the primary global hegemon, with the
dollar remaining the international reserve currency. Now, states that have felt coerced by US economic
pressure have other options. Having endured years of US sanctions, Iran’s central bank has listed the
yuan as one of the major currencies for trading. Iran has already sold oil to China in yuan, and given
Western pressure, Tehran hopes to completely abandon the dollar and euro and trade in yuan with
China wherever possible.

Some regional countries have shown desires to move away from the US’ economic influence, which
has sometimes been criticised as interference due to its political strings-attached aid. In Tunisia, a
pro-government movement said it hopes Tunis will join Algeria, Egypt and Saudi Arabia in applying to
join the BRICS group that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa at present.

While such bids are not clear cut nor guaranteed to be accepted, the anti-Western and IMF sentiment
within Tunis reflects how it and other states may favour moving towards China and other emerging
economic powers, which could be welcomed as less interfering.

Some observers say BRICS itself has emerged as a potential vehicle to erode US hegemony and de-
dollarise countries, and there are clearly wishes within the organisation to achieve this. On April 13,
Brazil’s leftist president Lula da Silva called for a new currency for BRICS members to trade in as
opposed to the dollar, saying, “Every night I ask myself why all countries have to base their trade on
the dollar” to applauding Chinese and Brazilian dignitaries in Shanghai.

Although largely a symbolic statement at this point, such aspirations could further consolidate
opportunities for Middle Eastern and North African countries to trade in different currencies should
they join BRICS.

Challenging the dollar

Despite these challenges to the dollar, its power should not be dismissed outright. Most financial
transactions, international debt, and trade invoicing are currently made in dollars. And as of 2021,
almost 60 percent of the world’s foreign exchange reserves were stored in dollars. And with oil, 80
percent of global transactions are denominated in dollars.

China would face a huge challenge to replace the dollar worldwide and in the Middle East. In practical
terms, it would need to convince central banks to hold at least at least $700 billion worth of yuan in
foreign exchange reserves for it to be a reserve currency, in the way that the US has.
Moreover, the yuan is not considered a hard currency, meaning it is currently considered less stable
than the dollar. China would need to consider adapting its monetary policy and prove to central banks
that the yuan's stability could match that of the dollar and, therefore, fully internationalise its currency.

However, global reserves have been correlated with the leading power in the world. Portugal and then
Spain once dominated reserves, as did currencies by the Netherlands and France in the 17th and 18th
centuries. The British Empire made the pound sterling the reserve currency in the 19th and early 20th
centuries to trade within its colonies until the US took the baton as the global superpower.

Obviously, the future is uncertain, and variables can change. Yet, for now, more countries have further
opportunities to trade in multiple currencies, like the renminbi as well as the dollar.

China has smelt blood as it observes the dying US hegemony, and this is in line with Beijing’s own
rapid economic growth in the past several decades. Moreover, various financial analysts have
predicted that China’s economy will comfortably surpass the US by 2050. China becoming the top
economic power on earth would be a massive contributing factor in who controls global reserves.

Incidentally, that forecast will be one year after the Chinese Communist Party’s centenary in 2049,
which President Xi Jinping has expressed as a target by which the country will aim to have evolved so
much that it will be able to exert tremendous global influence and power.

*** Jonathan  Fenton-Harvey

Jonathan Fenton-Harvey is a journalist and researcher, who focuses on political issues and
humanitarian crises in the Middle East and North Africa.

### Is water becoming the new oil?

Water availability, access and affordability are acute problems for poor and crisis-vulnerable people,
while billions of dollars in profits are extracted from the sector.

Growing up as a child in India, my job was to fetch water for any visitor and for anyone who rang the
doorbell demanding a drink. I was also roped into my beloved grandmother’s scheme for hydrating the
labourers toiling on neighbourhood roads and buildings under the burning sun. On her passing, it was
but natural to establish a public drinking point in her memory.

That is how I learnt that water is a sacred substance. Not just a human right. The symbolism goes
back millennia, with Greek philosophers considering water as basic bodily humour, the imbalance of
which causes disease. Major faiths consider water a purifier in blessing ceremonies and in the ritual
washing of the dead.

Ancient beliefs that water is a gift of the gods are reflected in geological insight that the Earth
acquired most of its water some four billion years ago from meteoroids  bombarding our planet. The
rest probably came up from the Earth’s core. Gravity kept the water from being sucked away into
space.

Thus accumulated a planetary stock of around 1.3 million cubic kilometres of water, with each cubic
km containing one trillion litres. Although this is an unimaginably large quantity, water is a finite
resource. All the water that we were originally endowed with is all that we will ever have. And 96
percent of this is saline oceans, covering 71 percent of the Earth’s surface.
68 percent of the remaining water is locked into glaciers and 30 percent is deep underground. We rely
on that via a finely-tuned hydrological cycle of evaporation, condensation, precipitation, interception,
infiltration, percolation, and transpiration to supply the 1 percent of total earthly water accessible for
daily living.

But temperature rises from climate change is depleting glaciers. Environmental destruction, which has
caused the loss of a third of our forests and 85 percent of wetlands, is disrupting the water cycle at an
alarming rate. Simultaneously, our growing population, now 8 billion, is digging deeper into
underground aquifers at rates faster than their replenishment.

On prevailing trends, a water crunch is inevitable. By 2025, half the world’s population will live in water-
stressed areas and by the decade’s end, freshwater demand will outstrip supply. By 40 percent.
Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6, which promises safe and affordable drinking water for all, is
increasingly out of reach. As water is also crucial to the other 16 SDGs, the broader development
impacts are profound.

We have been there before, as civilisations have always prospered or perished around water. The
greatest ones arose around the rivers Nile, Indus, Euphrates and Tigris, or unravelled when water ran
out, as happened with the 12th century BCE Turkish Hittite, 9th century Maya, 15th century Khmer, or
17th century Ming. These collapses were not sudden but unfolded over centuries with progressive
declines punctuated by dramatic disasters and wars.
Predictions of water conflicts are also current. Ethiopia’s massive Renaissance Dam has stoked
tensions with Sudan and Egypt, and terrorism and insecurity accompany a drying Lake Chad. Water
scarcity is a driver for population displacement – contributing ten percent of forced migratory flows,
which topped 100 million last year.

Today’s collapses are already underway, the difference with the historical past being that inequities in
water access and consequent crises are widespread. More than three-quarters of last year’s 387
major disasters were due to too much or too little water. For example, Pakistan floods affected 33
million people, Bangladesh monsoons 7 million, and the Philippines tropical storms over 3 million.

Meanwhile, Somalia’s fourth year of drought killed 43,000 people, while 1.2 million urban South
Africans faced day zero when taps nearly ran dry. The continent is the most water-stressed, with one
in three Africans impacted, including millions who walk more than half an hour to fetch water or
expend more than 25 percent of their income to buy it.

Even then, sufficiency and quality are variable. Water constitutes 60 percent of our body and we must
consume 2-4 litres to stay well, depending on activity-level and ambient temperature. The World
Health Organization has established drinking water standards, specifying the maximum permitted
levels of microbes and chemical pollutants. 
Forty percent of the world’s mass water sources, such as lakes, rivers, and aquifers, do not meet these
standards or are not monitored. Meanwhile, 3.5 million people die annually from water-related
diseases. Currently, as Malawi reels from a cyclone, it is also enduring a cholera outbreak.

I remember witnessing 50,000 Rwandans fleeing genocide in 1994 to die instead from cholera in DRC.
Despite plenty of water in nearby Lake Kivu, treating and piping water was difficult. A million Rohingya
refugees are finding the same today in Bangladesh even as 20million of the host population struggle
against the world’s biggest mass poisoning because their water is naturally contaminated with
arsenic. 

Despite myriad problems, the world is striving to increase safe water production, and efficient
transmission and usage. Rich countries are using de-salination but this is energy-intensive.
Meanwhile, 45 million cubic metres are lost daily through broken pipes. As illustration, Spain loses 28
percent of all piped water through leakage. New leak detection technologies like satellites and in-pipe
robots are coming. Water storage solutions – harvesting rainwater or storm overflows – are getting
common.

Most fresh water is used in food systems: producing the average person’s daily diet needs 2,000-5,000
litres of water. Farmers are innovating with crops that need less water and drip irrigation. Changing
diet makes sense as one kilogram of beef takes 15,000 litres while a kilo of wheat requires 1,500
litres.

Meanwhile, industrial use takes 17 percent of the world’s freshwater. Innovation is hard at work here.
It used to take 10,000 litres to make a pair of jeans but this has reduced that to less than 1,000.
Efficient recycling is the obvious key as also lifestyle changes that waste less water flushing toilets,
bathing – and laundering jeans!

The World Bank estimates that it would cost around $25 billion annually till 2030 to bring safe water to
all. At a mere 0.1 percent of global GDP with an economic return of $4 for every dollar invested, this is
a no-brainer.

But will we do that? The political omens are not good. In a world that proliferates  international
conferences at the drop of a hat, it has taken 46 years to convene this week’s UN Water Conference in
New York, since the previous one in 1977 in Argentina.

Although the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights established the right to life and adequate
health and well-being, it did not mention water. Perhaps, the drafters  thought it unnecessary to state
this obvious condition for life? It took a further six decades till 2010 to recognise water as a basic
human right with UN General Assembly Resolution 64/292. But that was only by majority vote, in
which 41 important states such as Australia, Japan, UK, and USA abstained.

Although this was for arcane procedural reasons, it exposed deep divisions over the  status of water
as either a common public good or a commodity traded for profit. The privatisation of an originally
free gift of nature for the benefit of company shareholders is morally troubling. In contrast, market
proponents argue that this is necessary to bring needed investment into the sector and ensure correct
pricing for optimising the use of a scarce resource.

The debate echoes, to some extent, the one on energy in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war or
recent arguments over access to Covid-19 vaccines.

Meanwhile, water availability, access and affordability are increasingly acute problems, especially for
poor and crisis-vulnerable people, while billions of dollars in profits are extracted from the sector.

Prevailing fractured geopolitics mean that there is no global water governance and the UN Water
Conference’s technically-loaded agenda avoids serious political discussion while making
unconvincing appeals for more water aid.

The irony is that while oil is on its way out to be replaced by renewables, water – the ultimate
renewable resource – is transforming into the new oil with equally tough attendant problems.

Mukesh Kapila
Mukesh Kapila is professor of global health and humanitarian affairs at the University of Manchester.
He’s a doctor by training and has worked for the NHS in Oxford, Cambridge, and London before being
drawn into international humanitarian affairs. As a British government official in the 1990s he dealt
with the genocides in Rwanda and Bosnia-Herzegovina.

### Turkish elections, Western illusions

Win or lose, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s legacy will endure.

Turkey’s elections on May 14 are attracting significant international attention, with major media
outlets dubbing them “the most important elections of 2023”. Many in the West seem to hope the
Turks will finally replace President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party
(AKP) with a more accommodating liberal leadership that will bring about a profound change in the
country’s domestic and international policies.

That may prove to be wishful thinking. Even if Erdogan is voted out, and that is a big if, his legacy is
bound to endure.

In the West, the Turkish president has been described as “the other Putin”, a populist, divisive autocrat
determined to pursue his dream of empire. He has been criticised for presiding over a pervasive
system of nepotism, a weak economy, high inflation and currency devaluation.

By contrast, his main rival, the opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, is portrayed as a consensual,
humble and responsible leader who will restore democracy and mend relations with the West if he
wins. Predictably, such characterisations have been condemned by Turkey’s pro-Erdogan media and
ridiculed as arrogant and fanciful.

As the elections approach, it is still not clear who will be the next president. Most national polls are
predicting a close race with Erdogan trailing behind Kilicdaroglu by a few percentage points. But the
pollsters are generally political and unreliable, and many of the voters seem to be driven more by their
distaste for Erdogan than love for Kilicdaroglu.

In reality, winning is about getting people to show up at the voting station, and the incumbent
president has proven quite resourceful in rallying his base. As a seasoned politician and charismatic
campaigner, Erdogan has energised his base among rural and working-class conservatives. His
supporters seem more committed and more invested in his re-election than the six-party opposition
coalition is committed to its candidate and, therefore, are more likely to go vote, come rain or
sunshine.

Erdogan clearly understands that elections are won and lost mostly over domestic not foreign affairs.
He has, therefore, used the levers of the state to his advantage, making big announcements on the eve
of the elections about Turkey’s forthcoming fortunes.

If Erdogan wins, he is sure to double down on his domestic and foreign agendas, especially towards
Russia, Europe and the United States. He will continue to pursue a hybrid approach towards major
powers by balancing Turkish interests with the West and Russia. He will maintain Turkey’s
membership in NATO while strengthening trade and geopolitical relations with Russia.

Kilicdaroglu, on the other hand, may be inclined to reverse some of his predecessor’s domestic
political and economic policies and undo some of the illiberal measures enacted since Turkey’s 2016
failed coup in favour of greater institutionalism. But judging by the historic record, leaders in Turkey
and elsewhere tend to keep executive powers and privileges they inherit from their predecessors. The
litmus test for Kilicdaroglu may be his willingness and ability to reverse Erdogan’s constitutional
reforms and bring back the parliamentary system.

Kilicdaroglu, who lacks foreign policy experience, has been razor-focused on domestic issues and the
flailing economy. If elected, he is likely to soften Turkey’s tone towards its Western and NATO partners
and remove its veto on Sweden’s membership in the military alliance.

But it is doubtful that he would sacrifice Ankara’s lucrative economic and energy relationship with
Moscow – especially as bilateral trade reached $70bn last year – to satisfy the West. With former
Erdogan ally and strategist Ahmet Davutoglu now on his side, Kilicdaroglu is likely to maintain Turkey’s
active regional and international posture, which, despite some setbacks, has served the country’s
economic and geopolitical interests. When it comes to nationalism, secularism and the Kurdish
question, some change might take place, but there still will be continuity.

Therefore, do not expect Turkey to make a U-turn and go back to its pre-2002 state of affairs, let alone
give up its enhanced geopolitical standing as a regional power to reckon with. Indeed, Western hopes
for a reset with Ankara may fall flat, but that may not be such a problem in Washington and Brussels.

Both sides have been realists when it comes to foreign policy despite much rhetoric about principles
and human rights. And judging by their appeasement of autocratic Middle Eastern regimes, their
interests generally trump values. The West, therefore, will come to accept that Turkey also has
regional aspirations, whatever the outcome of the elections.

After two decades in power, Erdogan has radically transformed Turkey’s domestic politics and foreign
policy, and it would be hard to roll this back, especially as his AKP has emerged as a potent political
force with penetrating social and bureaucratic influence. Love him or hate him, one must admit that
Erdogan has been a consequential president who will leave his mark on Turkey regardless of whether
he wins or loses in the upcoming elections.

###I asked an AI chatbot about AI replacing humans

It told me it would take human jobs faster than the Kardashians ‘dump boyfriends’. Should we be
worried?

This Labour Day, working people around the world have little to celebrate. Amid climate change, war
and pandemics, inequality is rising, wages are stagnating or even falling, and inflation is skyrocketing,
leaving billions of people struggling to make ends meet.

In France, where in 1889 labour unions and socialists first designated May 1 as International Workers’
Day, hundreds of thousands are demonstrating against a pension law raising the retirement age to 64.

However, the sad fact is that many of these workers out on French streets and throughout the world
today may not have a job at all come retirement. The speed with which automation and artificial
intelligence (AI) are replacing humans in the workplace is breathtaking and poses an unprecedented
risk of major economic disruptions and social upheavals.

In 2017, the international consulting firm, McKinsey estimated that between 400 and 800 million jobs
could be lost to automation by 2030. And in 2019, the Brookings Institution concluded that some 36
million, or a quarter of the American workforce, may be replaced by robots.

Today, AI seems to threaten white-collar middle-class workers as much as – if not more than – blue-
collar workers.
The applications of AI go beyond driverless cars and automated retail cashiers to take on financial
accounting, medical diagnosis, legal documentation, graphic design, 3-D printing, text and film editing,
commercial art and design and hundreds of other tasks.

And as with previous technological advances that ultimately benefitted capital more than workers, AI
will enable a few patent holders and investors to enter the 1 percent club of other hi-tech and finance
billionaires, while millions go poor.

But it cannot be all that bad! It mustn’t!

To provide some “balance” to this dramatic scenario, I asked the AI chatbot, ChatGPT, for its take on
how AI will affect human labour, but was told that it has no “take” on it per se. Instead, it went on to
cite and summarise various reports, rather generically and somewhat conservatively.

It listed the main pros and cons for the economy, suggesting that a higher number of jobs may be
created if businesses and governments joined hands and invested more in education and training.

The new technological revolution will certainly have positive ramifications and is already transforming
our lives like never before. It will improve productivity, create new more sophisticated jobs and speed
up the search for solutions to various problems of healthcare, climate change, finance, transport, etc.
And, it will take on the tedious tasks that no one wishes to do, and do them even more efficiently,
requiring no lunch or coffee breaks.

But then again, how will millions of families survive at all, let alone prosper, in the shadow of all these
innovations, when their breadwinners lose their jobs?

Unsatisfied, I probed ChatGPT further, asking for a more genuine, even witty and sarcastic take on this
“complex issue”. To my surprise, after few back-and-forths, it responded to the effect that AI is bound
to replace human jobs faster than the Kardashians replace boyfriends.

Hmmm! The response was a bit too American for my taste, but it was right.

Job replacement is inevitable and will proceed at a high pace. In fact, AI has already begun to disrupt
the labour market and is sure to create a major surplus of labour and exacerbate income inequality.
Disruption is the key word here.

As human civilisation, we must avoid at all costs hyper-automation that leads to the utter destruction
of the labour market. Not only are humans needed to run, guide, and, yes, humanise all industries, but
also surrendering any economy to a fast-learning, autonomous “divine-like” digital intervention is sure
to bring on the apocalypse.

That is why ethical and legal oversight and management of AI systems are paramount, and must go
hand-in-hand with creative national solutions to preempt a major labour catastrophe that are bound to
lead to major social and political upheavals and widespread violence.

Preemption is also the key word here. Because even though solutions may be found and jobs
eventually created, timing is of the essence to avoid calamity.

Already, a couple of obvious remedies have been suggested, such as investing in better education,
training and retraining for workers who will handle more sophisticated operating systems as well as
new occupational tasks. But with governments preoccupied by pandemics, war and inflation, and
corporations falling behind on training and preparation, there has been little or no real national or
international effort to avoid a human redundancy disaster.
This must change. Fast.

Another interesting remedy could be “universal basic income”, which would see governments
distributing a minimum monetary handout to everyone to help them sustain a decent standard of
living. Until recently, this was an unthinkable policy in mainstream circles, but today, it is embraced by
hi-tech executives, defended in media bastions of capitalism, such as the New York Times, and taken
on (at least rhetorically) by the likes of the neoliberal French President Emmanuel Macron.

Implementing this policy would be crucial, especially during transitional periods to avoid social
mayhem, crime, and a rush towards populist fascism.

But ultimately, people want and need good-paying jobs, not government handouts. And AI-guided
automation could free many people to pursue more charitable, creative and artistic endeavours that
enrich societies and counter the robotic dehumanisation of the digital revolution.

Meanwhile, watching the French revive an old traditional form of protest, known as the “casserolade”,
banging pots and pans in public squares and handing each other lilies of the valley on this glorious
spring day, I cannot but think of the tenacity of the human spirit and the grace of human solidarity.

After all is said and done – and digitalised – let us hold onto our humanity, elevated by our common
pursuit of liberty, equality and fraternity.

*** Marwan Bishara

Marwan Bishara is an author who writes extensively on global politics and is widely regarded as a leading
authority on US foreign policy, the Middle East and international strategic affairs. He was previously a
professor of International Relations at the American University of Paris.

### How the parliamentary system curbed Türkiye for decades

The parliamentary system frequently led to political turmoil and snap elections in the country, resulting in
the formation of a staggering number of 48 governments since 1950.

A coalition government is a form of government consisting of more than one political party and
comes into being when a single party can not obtain an absolute majority after an election.

This type of governmental system, which is widespread worldwide, has advantages and
disadvantages, but it can hardly be said that its harms are more than its benefits.

Countries ruled by coalition governments continue with the system not because it is perfect but
because their political atmosphere keeps them from abandoning it.

We know that Italy had 68 governments in 76 years. Israel had five elections in four years between
2018 and 2022. Dutch parties could not form a government in nine months after elections in 2021.

Even if governments are constituted eventually, they have a very short lifespan – as coalition partners
have different views, methods, expectations and goals regarding governing.

When party interests clash, they dissolve the government and cause an impasse in administration. In
addition, decision-making is slow and not assertive in coalition governments.

There are, of course, small benefits of coalition governments. Such as giving power to different
factions of society and representing the will of the majority of the population.
But so many short-lived governments indicate that coalition governments are not the preferable
choice, though some people may think otherwise.

Türkiye in focus

Türkiye is yet another country that suffered from coalition governments in the past.

The country witnessed the first coalition government in 1961 when the ideologically opposite right-
wing Justice Party (Adalet Partisi-AP) and left-wing/pro-establishment People’s Republican Party
(Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi-CHP) formed the post-coup government. But the government lasted only for
seven months.

Between 1961 to 2002, when Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AK Party came to power, 17 coalition
governments ruled Türkiye.

While their average lifespan was 2.4 years, the shortest-lived government lasted three months and the
longest 3.5 years.

Moreover, the parliamentary system frequently led to political turmoil and snap elections, resulting in
the formation of a staggering number of 48 governments since 1950.

Unlike in other countries, Türkiye’s military was very influential in politics during the parliamentary
system and abused the weakness of successive governments.

While the first coalition government was formed after a coup, other multi-party governments were
formed more or less under the pressure of army generals. Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan was
forced to dissolve the coalition government in 1997. The new three-party government (Anasol-D) that
replaced Erbakan’s premiership was again a result of military pressure.

The Turkish army was like the Damocles’s Sword hanging over single-party governments as well, but
forming/deforming coalitions was always easier for army generals.

Moreover, Turkish coalition governments harmed the state, particularly the treasury. The following
example is noteworthy in showing their destructive impact.

Before the AK Party came to power in 2002, a three-party coalition ruled Türkiye. The three biggest
state-owned banks, which are now breaking profit records, were disaffiliated from the Ministry of
Economy, and each was tied to three other ministries headed by three different coalition parties’
ministers. The banks’ money was siphoned off by coalition parties, leaving them almost bankrupt. It
also sparked Türkiye’s biggest banking crisis in history.

Being aware of the disastrous effects of coalitions, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan – then the Prime
Minister – put forth the idea of his presidential system in the mid-2010s for public discussion and
initiated his campaign in 2015.

Late presidents Turgut Ozal and Suleyman Demirel had wanted to switch to a presidential system, but
they failed to realise it. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was assertive about the change, and
eventually, Türkiye accepted the system through a referendum held on April 17, 2017. It was formally
adopted on July 9, 2018.

Since then, Türkiye has enjoyed political stability like never before, as well as prompt and effective
decision-making that has reflected in the quality of life for the Turkish people.
Türkiye saw the full benefits of the presidential system during the Covid pandemic, the post-pandemic
disruptions and the twin earthquakes on February 6, 2023.

Opposing voices

Despite the visible benefits of the presidential system, there are some who are opposed to it though
their accusations are barely convincing.

The argument that all power is concentrated in one man’s hands is wrong because, previously, the
prime minister had the same powers.

There was also a president in the parliamentary system, but he was only approving what government
or parliament enacted though there were some exceptions. This was because the president was being
elected by mostly the ruling party.

On the other hand, when another party elected him, political crises were breaking out. Furthermore, the
presidential seat during the parliamentary system was symbolic, had a weak authority, and generally
causing political turmoil unless elected by the governing party’s members in the parliament.

Though the Turkish opposition parties argue that they will reinstate the parliamentary system, their
statements are contradictory.

At a TV programme during his presidential campaign in 2018, CHP’s presidential candidate Muharrem
Ince said he would use presidential power rather than abandon it. In addition, while the opposition’s
Nation Alliance still favours a strengthened parliamentary system in their statements, their crystalised
governmental system composes of a president and seven vice presidents, which is not seen as
reasonable even by the opposition’s supporters.

It seems that the Turkish opposition is not against the presidential system but against the president,
that is President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

It can be argued that Türkiye, from people on the street to political parties, is happy with the
presidential system, and no parties will probably attempt to return to the parliamentary system. In
other words, Türkiye has decided about its governmental system, and it will hardly be changed.

But no system is perfect, and many people – including President Recep Tayyip Erdogan –
acknowledge that some adjustments are needed. Some retouches might be expected after the May
14 elections.

*** Ibrahim Karatas

Dr Ibrahim Karatas is a political analyst and journalist who specialises in Turkish foreign policy, the
Middle East and security.

### Urdu: The revival of the language of romance and poetry

Once patronised by Mughal rulers in the Indian subcontinent, the language is showing signs of a second
coming, with a growing number of speakers and newspaper circulation.

A few centuries ago, a language known as Hindavi/Hindi flourished in the plains of North India. It was
the zabaan-e Urdu-e mualla-e-Shahjahanabad, the language of the exalted city/court of
Shahjahanabad, which corresponds to modern-day Old Delhi. This language was also known as
Dihlavi, Hindi/Hindvi, Gujri, Dakani and Rekhta in various stages of its life till the late 19th century.

Mughal Emperor Shah Alam II (.1759-1806), who was proficient in many languages, including Sanskrit,
was a poet who wrote in Hindi and popularised it in Shahr-e-Urdu-e-Mualla (Shahjahanabad) by
speaking it informally in his royal court.

The journey of Hindi to Urdu is fascinating and must be seen in the context of the rise of the British
East India Company (EIC) in India, their policies of divide and rule to gain control and the events
leading up to the First War of Indian Independence in 1857 and its fallout.

Very soon, Hindavi/Hindustani, written in Perso-Arabic script, came to be called Urdu, and when
written in Devnagari, it became Hindi. But, more importantly, both were also burdened with religious
affiliations – Urdu was seen as the Muslim tongue, while Hindi was identified with Hindus.

Urdu is one of India’s 22 official languages but still carries the tag of being the language of Muslims.
More so since Pakistan – with only eight percent Urdu speakers – adopted it as their national
language.

Over the years, linguists and fans of the language – which has spawned some of the most classical
poems and songs in the subcontinent – have lamented a decline in the prestige and standing of Urdu.

But is there any truth in the fear that Urdu is on the decline?

At the annual Jashn-e Rekhta – an annual Urdu literary festival held in New Delhi by the non-profit
Rekhta Foundation in the first week of December – the crowds have been so large every year that the
gates had to be closed for fear of a stampede.

I talked to Huma Mirza, writer, translator, trustee and advisor of Rekhta Foundation and editor of
Rekhta Rauzan. She said, “Two-and-a-half days of Jashn-e-Rekhta and an audience of three lakhs this
year speak volumes for the love of Urdu and its tehzeeb in our Hindustan.

“It’s the incredible richness of Urdu and the depth of its distinct forms of literary expressions that
draws stadium crowds in a country like India where it is not even taught in schools.”

She gushes about the increasing number of daily hits, running into millions, on rekhta.org as a
testimony to the fact that most of the young generation still find their heart throbbing with the most
profound human emotions and that they want to be in such a pluralistic culture and intellectual space.

Entrepreneur S. Amir Bashir, who put up stalls at the event, talks of the wonderful response he got.
“We have seen a lot of demand for Urdu merchandise (essentially revolving around Urdu poetry). In
fact, at this year’s Rekhta festival, we ran out of most of our stock by the end of each day.”

He adds a pertinent point, “The demand is more for merchandise in Roman script (or where both the
scripts (English and Urdu are present) as people can read it easily.”

Many buyers buy Urdu merchandise and get it written on a piece of paper in Roman for their reference.

Tayyab Rizvi, the owner of A.H. Clothing that sells shawls, stoles and kurtas with verses in Perso-
Arabic script, is also doing great business and even has international orders.

But does this translate to Urdu becoming universal with a growing demand for learning the script?
Purists decry the number of people reading Urdu in its own script as a loss of the language since Urdu
has specific pronunciations of many words which can only be written in the Perso-Arabic script. It also
means that the rich treasure trove of Urdu manuscripts and books can’t be read unless they are
translated, and a translation also has its limitations.

However, of late, there has been an increase in the number of online classes teaching the language.

Dharmendra Saha, general manager of Rekhta Foundation, who himself learnt Urdu during the
pandemic, says that over the last 3-4 years, more than 1.4 lakh people registered on their website
amozish.com to learn Urdu. The various Urdu academies in each state also run certificate courses.
Delhi Academy has nine such centres.

Are we, then, seeing an Urdu revival?

Nasheet Shadani, Founder of the portal ‘Ishq Urdu’, calls his 650k followers his online family of Urdu
lovers.

“We have seen great engagements and a tremendous response to our online Urdu course. People
from different backgrounds are eager to learn the script for various reasons,” he says. “Some learn to
be able to write lyrics and songs, some for reviving their family legacy through old letters and books,
and others for the aesthetics of it. People are taking time out of their busy schedule and spending
money to learn the language.”

In the past few years, there has been a proliferation of online resources for learning Urdu and social
media accounts teaching the nuances of the language and reciting poetry, awakening an interest in it.

While many learn the script to enjoy poetry, many scholars are learning Urdu as it gives them access
to the rich archives.

Sarthak Malhotra, a PhD student at the University of Cambridge, says that he had learnt Urdu as a
college student at Delhi University “from a friend mostly because I was keen to learn the script that my
grandfather had grown up with in Lahore”. It also gives him an edge in his ethnographic research on
Tajganj, Agra, as many histories of the city are written only in Urdu.

Paul Abraham of Sarmaya Arts Foundation, a digital museum and art foundation, says, “I started
learning Urdu with the intention of improving my capability to decipher coins and other documents
which I would come across in my journey of collecting.”

But is Urdu only preserved as a language of poetry and the elite of North India?

“India has a vibrant Urdu press, and these newspapers are published from almost all the regions.” We
must also keep in mind that Urdu is the medium of instruction in various schools and madrasas in the
country, which means that for many Indians, Urdu is their first language in which they communicate
and consume Urdu newspapers, magazines and books.

In terms of circulation, the annual report of Registrar Of Newspaper For India for 2020-21shows that
Hindi publications lead with 18,93,96,236 copies (49.01 percent ), while Urdu comes fourth with
2,61,14,412 copies per publishing day with a 6.76 percent share of the market.

Amongst dailies, Urdu newspapers claimed the second position with a circulation of 2,18,06,994
copies per publishing day (9.65 percent), second only to Hindi.

As I write this, in a delicious coincidence, I get a message from Aurangabad from a group called Urdu
Miraas, promoting Urdu, who want to send me an Urdu calendar they have made. So my day is also
made.
Let us not be in a hurry to write its obituary.

*** Rana Safvi

Rana Safvi is a passionate believer in India’s unique civilisational legacy and pluralistic culture which she
documents through her writings, podcasts and videos. She is the author of Shahjahanabad: The Living
City of Old Delhi (2019), The Forgotten Cities of Delhi (2018), Where Stones Speak: Historical Trails in
Mehrauli, the First City of Delhi (2015), and Tales from the Quran and Hadith (2022). Her blog
ranasafvi.com is a repository of cultural, literary and historical heritage.