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 Journal of Environmental
Science and Engineering B
Volume 1, Number 3, March 2012 (Serial Number 3)

Contents
Environmental Material
63
281 Modelling the Sorption of Ni to Granitic Materials: Application of the Component Additive
Model
Fidelis Sameh Ebong and Nick Evans
293 Research of Influence of Steam Contact Heating on Thermal Stability of a Wall of Glass Canning
Jar
Yakov G. Verkhivker and Ella I. Altman

Solid Waste Management

299 The Six Sigma Approach to Solid Waste Management and Minimization: Moving towards Zero
Landfill Facilities
Matthew Franchetti
312 Concept of Integrated Waste Management as Recoverable Resources in Product Cycle
Aleksandr Telizhenko, Vadym Lukianykhin, Sergey Kuzmenko, Elena Lukianykhina, Tatyana
Shevchenko, Elena Vishnitskaya and Min Li

Environmental Management and Assessment

324 High Resolution Regional and Coastal Operational Storm Surges/Tide Forecasting System in
Korea
Sung Hyup You, Woo Jeong Lee, Ji Hye Kwun, Jang-Won Seo and Sang Boom Ryoo
336 DiagData: A Tool for Generation of Fuzzy Inference System
Silvia Maria Fonseca Silveira Massruhá, Raphael Fuini Riccioti, Helano Povoas Lima and Carlos
Alberto Alves Meira
344 The Discount Rate in Terms of Evaluating Investments in Rangelands: The Case Study of Greece
Melina A. Kourantidou and Athanasios S. Christodoulou
350 Native Trees Forage Alternative Protein Feed for Cattle in Tropical “Mexico”
Amalia Cabrera-Núñez, Pablo Elorza-Martínez, Arturo Serrano, Iliana Del Carmen Daniel Renteria
and Miguel Angel Lammoglia Villagómez
354 Spatial Landuse and Farming System Analyses of Reclaimed Tidal Lowland in South Sumatra,
Indonesia
Adzemi Mat Arshad, Mustika Edi Armanto, Elisa Wildayana and Ahmad Syahrial
363 Two- and Three-Dimensional Urban Core Determinants of the Urban Heat Island: A Statistical
Approach
Bumseok Chun and Jean-Michel Guldmann
379 An Operational Hydro-Meteorological Chain to Evaluate the Uncertainty in Runoff Forecasting
over the Verbano Basin
Alessandro Ceppi, Giovanni Ravazzani, Davide Rabuffetti and Marco Mancini
397 Political Implications of Emergency Management
Talya D. Thomas
403 Comparing Ecological Functions of Eastern and Southern Slopes of a Rangeland Ecosystem in
Chaharbagh Region, Golestan Province, Iran
Reza Dehghani Bidgoli, Mohammad Pessarakli, Gholam. Ali Heshmati and Marzieh Yousefi Najafabadi
410 Transport Risk Assessment for the Environment
Tomáš Saska
416 Relationship between Mire Vegetation and Volcanic Activity: A Case Study in Tadewara Mire, a
Volcanic Mire in the South-Western Japan
Akira Haraguchi and Ayumi Nakazono
426 The Natural Forest Protection Program in China: A Contingent Valuation Study in Heilongjiang
Province
Frida Edström, Hanna Nilsson and Jesper Stage
433 Prediction of the Maximum Flow by the Model SASIS: Sensibility to the Empirical Parameters of
the Shape of the Furrow
Roberto Vieira Pordeus, Carlos Alberto Vieira Azevedo, Valéria Ingrith Almeida Lima, Silvanete
Severino Silva, Gleidson Vieira Marques and José Dantas Neto
Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering B 1 (2012) 281-292
Formerly part of Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, ISSN 1934-8932
D DAVID PUBLISHING

Modelling the Sorption of 63Ni to Granitic Materials:

Application of the Component Additive Model

Fidelis Sameh Ebong and Nick Evans

Department of Chemistry, Centre for Environmental Radiochemistry, Loughborough University, Loughborough LE113TU, UK

Received: April 12, 2011 / Accepted: September 2, 2011 / Published: March 20, 2012.

Abstract: The component additive modelling approach is based on summing the results from models already calibrated with pure
mineral phases. The summation can occur as the sum of results for thermodynamic surface speciation models or as the sum of
pseudo-thermodynamic models for adsorption on individual mineral phases. Static batch sorption experiments of 63Ni are with
different granitic rocks and component minerals. XRD analyses have been used to calculate the percentage mineralogical
composition of the granitic rocks. Sorption data has been modelled using non electrostatic correction models to obtain Rd for the
granitic rocks and mineral. Rd values for the granitic rocks predicted from the component additive model have been compared to
experimental values. Results showed that predicted Rd values for granite adamellite, biotite granite and rapakivi granite were
identical to the experimentally determined values, whereas, for graphic granite and grey Granite, the predicted and experimentally
determined Rd values were much different. The results also showed a greater contribution to the bulk Rd by feldspar while quartz
showed the least contribution to the Rd.

Key words: Radionuclide sorption, 63Ni, component additive model.

1. Introduction understand all important processes and how they

integrate over > 100,000 years [1]. Geological
In several countries, Sweden and Finland, low
matrices surrounding a waste repository are expected
permeability crystalline rocks (e.g. Granite) are under
to act as natural barrier to both water flow and
consideration as potential hosts for radioactive waste
radionuclide migration. Granite rock formations as the
repositories. In such formations groundwater flow
host media and bentonite alone or its mixture with
occurs predominantly in specific fractures rather than
sand quartz or crushed granite as the backfill are the
being a general porous flow through the entire rock
favourite materials [2]. Granite which is the most
matrix. In the evaluation of radionuclide retardation
common igneous rock appears to be an excellent
therefore, the effect of sorption on secondary minerals
candidate for a repository area [3, 4]. Physical
must be clearly considered. Despite the enormous
properties lending uniqueness to granite are
amount of efforts to understand the possible behaviour
porosity/permeability. Granite has almost negligible
of escaped radionuclides, great uncertainty remains
porosity with high thermal stability. Granite is
mostly highlighted by the problem of time. Time
impervious to weathering from temperature and even
constitutes one of the greatest limitations into
from the air borne chemicals and has very small
understanding future scenarios because one integrated
co-efficient of expansion. Many studies on granite
experiment that captures all the relevant mechanisms
reveal the main composition to be quartz, plagioclase
for the times of interest is not possible. It needs to
feldspars and Biotite [5-8]. Granitic rocks are
metagranite with high content of quartz with high
Corresponding author: Nick Evans, Ph.D., senior lecturer, thermal conductivity and high mechanical strength
main research fields: radioactive waste management, near-field
and far-field geochemistry. E-mail: n.d.m.evans@lboro.ac.uk. and rock stress. The rocks contain tectonic plates with
282 Modelling the Sorption of 63Ni to Granitic Materials: Application of the Component Additive Model
gentle sloping sub vertical zones with different
fracture domains [9].
1.1 Objectives
The Rd concept when applied to describe the bulk
sorption properties of granite can be very sensitive to
the composition of heterogeneous samples. The
overall bulk property may be expected to be the
summation of the bulk properties of the individual
minerals that make up the granite sample. The
component additivity approach [10] is based on
summing the adsorption by the individual component
minerals of sample to obtain a measure of the total
sorption of the bulk sample. The summation can occur
as the sum of results from thermodynamic surface
speciation models or as the sum of
pseudo-thermodynamic models for adsorption on
individual mineral phases. Pseudo-thermodynamic
models include models without electrostatic correction
terms, sometimes called NEMs (non-electrostatic
models non-electrostatic models). Thus, this work will
test if the bulk Rd’ is a summation of the bulk
properties of the individual minerals. Rd values were
determined for different granitic rocks and minerals,
and the CAM (component additive model) applied to
the sorption data. Sorption data has been modelled
using empirical models to obtain Rd values and
sorption parameters.
1.2 Nickel
The isotope 63Ni is an artificial radionuclide. The
presence of 63Ni in the environment results mainly of
the activities of man. 63Ni is formed by neutron
capture of stable 62Ni. 63Ni is a pure β-emitter with a
half-life of 100.1 years [11]. Naturally occurring
nickel is composed of 5 stable isotopes: 58Ni, 60Ni,
61
Ni, 62Ni and 64Ni with 58Ni being the most abundant
(68.077% natural abundance). Eighteen radioisotopes
have been characterized with the most stable being
59
Ni with a half-life of 76,000 years, 63Ni with a
half-life of 100.1 years, and 56Ni with a half-life of
6.077 days. All of the remaining radioactive isotopes
have half-lives that are less than 60 hours and the
majority of these have half-lives that are less than 30
seconds. Nickel can be transported as particles
released into the atmosphere or as dissolved
compounds in natural waters [12]. Three main sources
are responsible for the presence of 63Ni in the
environment. These sources are nuclear weapon tests,
radioactive effluents from nuclear installations and
accidental releases of nuclear power plants (e.g.
Chernobyl) [11]. 63Ni is a weak beta-emitting
radionuclide of Emax = 67 keV. It exists in the coolant
water of nuclear power reactor and is formed by
neutron capture of nickel released from steel piping
and so on due to corrosion. It is included in the list of
low-level long-lived radioactive waste from nuclear
power reactor [13].
1.3 Sorption Models
1.3.1 Linear Kd Model
The partition (or distribution) coefficient, Kd, is a
measure of sorption of contaminants to geomedia, and
is defined as the ratio of the quantity of the adsorbate
adsorbed per unit mass of solid to the amount of the
adsorbate remaining in solution at equilibrium. Values
for Kd not only vary greatly between contaminants,
but also vary as a function of aqueous and solid phase
chemistry [14]. Some adsorption studies are
conducted in a systematic fashion to evaluate the
effects of various parameters (such as pH, and ionic
strength) on Kd. The results of a suite of experiments
evaluating the effect of contaminant concentration on
adsorption, while temperature is held constant, are
called an “adsorption isotherm”. Among all
phenomena governing the mobility of substances in
aqueous porous media and aquatic environments, the
transfer of substances from a mobile phase (liquid or
gaseous) to a solid phase is a universal phenomenon.
That is the reason why the ‘‘isotherm’’, a curve
describing the retention of a substance on a solid at
various concentrations, is a major tool to describe and
 Modelling the Sorption of 63Ni to Granitic Materials: Application of the Component Additive Model
predict the mobility of this substance in the
environment [15]. This isotherm often cannot of itself
provide information about the type of reaction
involved. For example, the retention can be either due
to surface retention without creating
three-dimensional structure or to precipitation of a
new solid phase [16, 17]. However, isotherms give a
general view of the distribution of radionuclides
between the solid-liquid phases. Isotherm models are
used to describe the case where sorption relationships
deviate from linearity. For many short-lived
radionuclides, the mass present never reaches
quantities large enough to start loading surface
adsorption sites to the point that the linear Kd
relationship is not accurate. However, long-lived
radionuclides and stable elements can be found in
leachates and groundwaters near waste sources at
concentrations large enough to affect the saturation of
surface adsorption sites. The partition (or distribution)
coefficient, Kd, is expressed mathematically as the
ratio of the quantity of the adsorbate adsorbed per unit
mass of solid (Q) to the amount of the adsorbate
remaining in solution at equilibrium (C).
Kd 
Q (1)
C 1
Q 
V
(C C )  Q
a 0  a 0
M
Most of the time, the concentration of the
compound retained on the solid Q is calculated by
difference between the initial solute concentration Ca0
and the final solute concentration C. In the case of
retention stage, the solid concentration at equilibrium
Q (mol·g-1) is given by Eq. (2) with V being the
volume of solution (dm3), M is the solid mass (g) and
Qa0 (mol·g-1) is the concentration of the compound
initially retained by the solid, which must be measured
or shown to be negligible [15]. The use of a
distribution coefficient in describing nuclide migration
requires some assumptions:
 The sorption process during migration is
reversible;
 The ratio of solute concentration between the
283
solid and solution phases also remains constant [7].
A more realistic approach to the concept of Kd,
which is a thermodynamically determined value, is the
Rd (Distribution ratio) of the solute between the solid
and liquid phases, at the stated experimental
conditions and it is not thermodynamically determined.
This paper thus makes use of Rd rather than Kd.
1.3.2 The Freundlich Isotherm
For rocks and minerals, contaminant adsorption can
sometimes deviate from the linear relationship
established by the distribution coefficient. In some
circumstances, the amount of contaminant in solution
contacting the solid will reach such a concentration
that all adsorption sites would become saturated and
the linear relationship between contaminant adsorbed
to contaminant in solution would no longer hold.
Long-lived radionuclides and stable elements can be
found in leachates and groundwaters near waste
sources at concentrations large enough to affect the
saturation of surface adsorption sites. The Freundlich
equation, Eq. (3) [18, 19] is one of the various models
that have been employed for the study of metal
adsorption. It expresses relation between the adsorbed
quantity Q and the remained solute concentration.
Q  K C n (3)
(2)
The equation is expressed in the linear form as
linear form as:
LogQ  LogK 
1
lo g C (4)
n
where, Q is the concentration of metal sorbed
(mol·g-1), C is the concentration of metal in the
equilibrium solution (mol·dm-3), K (dm3·g-1) and n
(dimensionless) is a parameter that describes the
heterogeneity of the sorption sites. A graph with logC
as x-axis versus logQ as y-axis provides a line of
slope 1/n and intercepts the y-axis at logK. According
to the Freundlich equation, the isotherm does not
reach a plateau as C increases.
As 1/n tends to unity the surface becomes more
uniform. Intact and crystalline minerals have higher
1/n values than pulverised and non-crystalline
minerals. The constants are usually derived from a
284 Modelling the Sorption of 63Ni to Granitic Materials: Application of the Component Additive Model
plot of sorbed concentration (Q) against concentration
in solution (C). The Freundlich equation assumes that
the surface of the solid is covered with a monolayer of
sorbed species. The monolayer is not covered by any
other layer. The Freundlich model does not account
for finite adsorption capacity at high concentrations of
solute [20].
1.3.3 Langmuir Isotherm
Sorption by the Langmuir assumes the solid has a
limited adsorption capacity Qmax. All the adsorption
sites:
 Adsorption occurs up to the extent of one
monolayer;
 All adsorption sites are identical;
 Occupation of a site is independent of the
occupation of neighbouring site(s);
 The temperature is constant;
 The surface is uniform and homogeneous;
 The process is reversible;
 Each site retains one molecule of the given
compound;
 All sites are energetically and sterically
independent of the adsorbed quantity [21].
The reversibility/irreversibility of the sorption
process is of fundamental importance for the
understanding of the fate of radionuclides in the
geological systems. If the process is reversible, the
same isotherm should be valid for sorption and
desorption under the same experimental conditions
[22]. The Langmuir Model equation takes the form as
shown in Eq. (5) [23]:
The idea of non-linear monolayer sorption is often
modelled using the Langmuir equation, which can be
expressed:
Q 
K bC (5)
1 KC
The linearised form of the equation is represented
as [24]
C

1

C (6)
Q KB B ratio of a rock type is given by: Kd = Cs/Csoln as earlier
where, b is the maximum adsorption capacity of the
substrate (mol·g-1) and K is a constant representing the
strength with which the solute is bound to the
substrate (dm3·meq-1). Values of b and K can be
determined by plotting the linearised Eq. (6) [24].
The Freundlich and the Langmuir models have been
used in describing results that showed deviations from
a linear distribution. Empirical models like those
mentioned are mathematical description of the
experimental data without any particular theoretical
basis [25]. Because adsorption isotherms at very low
solute concentrations are often linear, either the
Freundlich isotherm with n equalling 1 or the
Langmuir isotherm with KC much greater than 1 fits
the data. The value of n for the adsorption of many
radionuclides is often significantly different from 1,
such that nonlinear isotherms are observed. In such
cases, the Freundlich model is a better predictor than
the Langmuir model.
1.4 The Component Additive Model
The component additive modelling approach is
based on summing the results from models already
calibrated with pure mineral phases. Thus, the CA
approach is a predictive tool [26] rather than for safety
case assessment purposes. Extending the models to
natural samples necessitates certain approximations
and modifications. For example, the assumption is
usually made that adsorption occurs through
interaction with the hydroxyl groups at the edges of
the mineral particles and constituent minerals are
uncoated and do not interact [26]. Considering granitic
rocks, the Kd for a rock type with different component
minerals will be a contribution from the Kd value of
independent minerals constituting the rock. Granite
has three main mineral components (feldspars, quartz
and Mica). The fraction of a mineral in the main rock
and the molecular structure of the mineral will
determine how much effect each mineral has to the
overall Kd value of the rock type. The distribution
defined. If the additivity rule is applicable for the rock
type, the distribution ratio based on the rock type is
 Modelling the Sorption of 63Ni to Granitic Materials: Application of the Component Additive Model
expressed by a linear combination of Kd and the rock
mineral component by Eq. (2) [20].
Kd  iK * Pi (7)
di
Kdi is the distribution ratio for the i-th component of
the rock type and pi is the content of the i-th
component.
2. Experiment
Analytical grade water with purity up to 18.2 MΩ
produced from a Barnstead NANOpure water
purification system was used throughout. Analytical
grade NiCl2, was supplied in from of Sigma Aldrich
as anhydrous, powder with 99.99% trace metals basis.
63
Ni isotope was provided by the Radiochemistry
Laboratory at Loughborough University supplied from
Eckert and Ziegler Isotopes Products Valencia
California, with original activity at 74 mBq. Sample
separation was performed by filtration using Whatman
filters (0.2 μm) and by centrifugation at 6,000 rpm for
30 min. The liquid scintillation cocktail used was
Goldstar (Meridian, Surrey, UK). All rock and
mineral samples were supplied by UK Geologist
Equipment as intact samples (Granite
Adamellite—GA, Biotite Granite—BG, Rapakivi
Granite—RG, Grey Granite—GrG, and Graphic
Granite—GG). The component minerals include
feldspar, quartz and mica. Sorption phenomena that
took place over a period of less than one year were
considered. During this time both fast reactions that
involve oxidation-reduction reactions and physical
diffusion into the micropores of the sorbents can be
observed, and long-term process such as weathering of
the solid phase and the re-distribution of the sorbed
species have yet to occurred, as such it can be
assumed that the physiochemical nature of the rock
particles remained the same during this time.
2.1 Preparation of 63Ni Solutions
An original 63Ni stock solution of known activity
(926, 1.1 mBq) was provided in the Radiochemistry
Laboratory of the University (High Level Lab). From
285
this stock 30 μL were pipetted, using a 50 μL pipette,
into a 100 cm3 volumetric flask, and deionised water
added to the 100 cm3 mark. After shaking the solution
was kept for 24 h to equilibrate. This formed a new
working stock (926-J). The activity of the stock
solution was 0.2 kBq·cm-3, so that 0.1 cm3 of the spike
solution gave approximately 1,200 counts·min-1. Upon
adding the spike the vials were allowed to shake for
between 5 to 7 days. The supernatant, 1 cm3 was
mixed with 10 cm3 of scintillation cocktail (High
Flash-point, Universal LSC cocktail) and samples
counted in a Tri Cab liquid scintillation counter. The
counts for 0.1 cm3 of the new stock were taken as
counts for the standards to which other measurements
were compared. The standard was counted for every
set of experiments in order to present the same set of
experimental conditions for the standard and the
actual samples. Background corrections to the
measured counts were made by counting blank
samples without added radioactivity. The measured
value for the blank sample (sample without added
radioactivity mixed with liquid scintillation cocktail)
is then subtracted from the measured counts of the
sample. Corrections for wall and filter sorption were
made by washing the filters and vials with nitric acid.
The solution with the leached metal was counted. The
results obtained from filter sorption were less than 1%
of the total counts of the sample.
All rock and mineral samples were supplied by UK
Geologist Equipment as intact samples. Samples were
crushed and pulverised using a bore mill and sieved to
obtain a particle size range of 46 to 250 µm. 0.1 g of
the pulverised samples were mixed with 20 cm3 of
non active NiCl2 solution. Three replicates of each of
varying concentration (1 × 10-14 to 1 × 10-4 mol·dm-3)
of Ni2+ were prepared. 63Ni stock solution was
prepared and allowed to equilibrate over 24 h and the
activity of the solution was diluted to 0.2 kBq·cm-3 so
that 0.1 cm3 of the spike solution should give
approximately 1,200 counts·min-1. Upon adding the
spike the vials were allowed to shake for ca. 7 days. 1
286 Modelling the Sorption of 63Ni to Granitic Materials: Application of the Component Additive Model

cm3 of the supernatant was mixed with 10 cm3 of

scintillation cocktail (High Flash-point, Universal
LSC cocktail) and samples counted in a TriCarb liquid
scintillation counter.
Sample separation was performed by centrifugation
at 6,000 rpm for 30 min. The separated sample was
mixed with 20 cm3 of DI water and allowed to shake Ni2+ (mol/L)

for between 5 and 7 days, upon which 1 cm3 of the

supernatant was filtered and counted in the energy
range of 0 to 67 keV at 2σ at a counting time of 20
Fig. 1 Ni speciation in solution from JCHESS speciation
min per sample. Three replicates of each stable Ni
code [30].
solution at each concentration were prepared. Vials
containing stable Ni2+ solutions were also prepared
and counted for background corrections. The pH of all
the samples was monitored so that the equilibration
pH was ca 7.5. At this pH, the dominant Ni species is
Ni2+ as shown in Fig. 1.

2.2 Characterization of Granite Samples

The mineralogical composition of the different

granitic rocks used was characterized at XRD
laboratory of the British Geological Survey [27]. The
aim was to confirm samples were of granitic origin,
based on the elemental composition as shown in Fig. 2.
A representative c.25 g sub-sample of each ground
sample was removed for clay mineral analysis. The
remaining material was tema-milled to < 125 μm in
the BGS Sample Preparation Facility. In order to
provide a finer and uniform particle-size for powder
XRD analysis, a 4.5 g portion of each tema-milled
sample was micronised under deionised water for 10
minutes with 10% (0.5 g) corundum (American
Elements-PN:AL-OY-03-P). The addition of an
internal standard allows to validate quantification
results and also to detect any amorphous species
present in the samples. Corundum was selected as its
principle XRD peaks are suitably remote from those
produced by most of the phases present in the samples.
The samples were then spray-dried following the
method and apparatus described by Hillier [28]. The
spray-dried materials were then frontloaded into a
Fig. 2 Energy dispersive spectrum of the elemental
composition of granite sample with high concentration of Si
and O.
standard stainless steel sample holders for analysis.
XRD analysis was carried out using a PANalytical
X’Pert Pro series diffractometer equipped with a
cobalt-target tube, X’Celerator detector and operated
at 45 kV and 40 mA. Following identification of the
mineral species present in the samples, mineral
quantification was achieved using the Rietveld
refinement technique [29], using PANalytical
Highscore Plus software. This method avoids the need
to produce synthetic mixtures and involves the least
squares fitting of measured to calculated XRD profiles
using a crystal structure databank.
2.3 XRD Results for the Different Granitic Rocks
The results of quantitative powder XRD analyses
are summarised in Table 1. Powder X-ray diffraction
 Modelling the Sorption of 63Ni to Granitic Materials: Application of the Component Additive Model 287

Table 1 Summary of quantitative whole-rock XRD analysis.

Mineralogical percentage composition
kaolinite K-feldspar ‘mica’ plagioclase quartz
GG < 0.5 49.4 0.5 21. 6 28.3
GA nd 32.9 3.1 25.7 38.1
BG nd 17.2 7.4 40.0 28.1
GrG nd 22.6 4.3 34.4 38.6
RG < 0.5 32.1 1.6 29.2 33.3
nd = not detected, ‘mica’ = undifferentiated mica species including muscovite, biotite, illite and illite/smectite etc. [27]. Further
elemental characterisation and identification of the granite samples were carried out using energy dispersive spectroscopy. The
elemental composition of elements present confirmed samples to be granites. GG = Graphic Granite, GA = Granite Adamellite, BG =
Biotite Granite, GrG = Grey Granite, RG = Rapakivi Granite.

analysis indicates that the five granites have
approximately similar mineralogies and are
predominantly composed of quartz (mean ca.33%),
plagioclase feldspar (mean ca.31%) and K-feldspar
(mean ca.31%) together with small/trace amounts of
‘mica’ (undifferentiated mica species possibly
including muscovite, biotite, illite, illite/smectite etc.).
Small amounts of amphibole were also identified in
the samples ‘Biotite granite’ and ‘Rapakivi granite’.
Traces of chlorite, kaolinite and smectite were also
identified in some of the samples.
3. Results and Discussion
3.1 Modelling 63Ni Sorption
The distribution of trace concentrations of ionic
species between solid and aqueous phases in
groundwater is generally considered to be a linear
relationship, with the process governed by the
partition law. However, as the concentrations of ionic
species in groundwater increase, the partition law
becomes less valid in describing the distribution
granite), (OF) orthoclase feldspar and (PF) plagioclase
feldspar were fitted to different empirical models, the
best fit sorption model was used to analyse the data.
The best fit model is statistically determined as the
root mean square value for a set of data. These values
are shown as R2 in the different sorption parameter
tables. Results showed sorption occurred with
saturation of sorption sites (Fig. 3) with metal loading
above 5 × 10-7 mol·dm-3.
For PF, saturation was attained at a lower Ni
concentration compared to GG, RG and OF.
Saturation of sorption sites is also evident from the
decrease in Rd with metal loading above 5 × 10-7
mol·dm-3. At low metal concentration the sorption
isotherm is linear with constant Rd. The Rd decreases
at higher metal concentration. Fig. 4 is a plot of Rd as
a function of metal concentration in solution.
(mol·g-1)

between the solid and the aqueous phases. Thus,

different models such as those studied below are
commonly used in order to take into consideration
deviations that might be observed.
3.1.1 63Ni Sorption to Granitic Rocks and Minerals
by the Langmuir Model
Data obtained from static batch sorption (mol·dm-3)

experiments with GG (graphic granite), RG (rapakivi Fig. 3 Log-Log plot of Ni bound and free in solution.
288 Modelling the Sorption of 63Ni to Granitic Materials: Application of the Component Additive Model

1
F (8)
1  KC e
where, K is the adsorption constant (dm3·mol-1), Ce is
the amount in solution in mol·dm-3.Values for F were
(mol·g-1)

calculated within the range 0 < F < 1.0, confirming

the saturation of the sorption sites.
This value as shown in Table 3 is calculated by
using the gradient and the intercept of the linearised
Langmuir Eq. (6) K, which is a measure of the binding
strength for the sorption process. This relates to the
(mol·dm-3)
Fig. 4 Variation of Rd with increasing metal strength with which the metal ions are held in a
concentration. monolayer.
3.1.2 63Ni Sorption to Granitic Rocks and Minerals
Table 2 shows the sorption parameters, and Rd
by the Linear Kd Model
values corrected for surface area effect. The
differences in the results for GG and RG can be due to Certain sorption processes occur with
the inherent difference in the constitution of the non-Langmurian behaviour (no saturation at the upper
component minerals. However, taking into limit of the concentration range) as shown in Fig. 5.
consideration the effect of surface area, Rd values were These sorption processes are described by multi-site
in the range 2 to 7 cm3·g-1·m-2 as shown in Table 2. adsorption models such as the Linear Kd model. The
Based on the fact that most Rd values in literature are slope of the straight lines derived from the isotherms
not quoted in terms of surface area, it is not possible gives an indication of the equilibrium constant [34].
to make comparisons. However, Ticknor [31] obtained As compared to GG, RG, OF and PF studied, Ni
Rd for granite from Lac du Bonnet batholith in sorption to GrG (grey granite), RQ (rose quartz) and
Manitoba, using different synthetic groundwaters in MQ (milky quartz) was best described by the Linear
the range 2.4 to 660 cm3·g-1. Rd* is obtained from Kd model. This model assumes no upper limit to the
corrections for effective surface area of the different amount bound for the concentration range studied.
samples. B is the Langmuir parameter also known as The mechanism involves multilayer sorption,
the adsorption capacity relating to the maximum enhanced by the modification of sorption sites by
amount of sorbable cations. Application of the already bound metal atoms, thus making possible the
Langmuir model to sorption data is often done with sorption of more metal ions in solution than if sorption
the calculation of the favourability factor F [32] (also was purely in a monolayer [35].
known as the separation factor [33]) as: Rd values of 0.02 cm3·g-1 and 0.026 cm3·g-1 were
63
Table 2 Sorption parameters for Ni sorption to granitic rocks and minerals. Sorption described using the Langmurian
model as shown in Fig. 3.
Sample B (mol·g-1) K (dm-3·meq-1) R2 Mean Rd ± SD (cm3·g-1) Rd* (cm3·g-1·m-2)
-5 6
Graphic Granite—GG 1.59 × 10 1.23 × 10 0.99 17.2 ± 2.6 6.1 ± 0.9
-5 5
Rapakivi Granite—RG 1.89 × 10 3. 57 × 10 0.98 6.64 ± 0.85 2.3 ± 0.2
-5 5
Orthoclase Feldspar—OF 1.46 × 10 4.15 × 10 0.98 6.14 ± 1.0 4.0 ± 0.6
-6
Plagioclase Feldspar—PF 5.6 × 10 4.5 × 105 0.98 4.71 ± 0.79 2.5 ± 0.5
Rd* is obtained from corrections for effective surface area of the different samples. B is the Langmuir parameter also known as the
adsorption capacity relating to the maximum amount of sorbable cations. This value is calculated using the gradient and the intercept
of the linearised Langmuir equation. K is a measure of the binding strength for the sorption process. This relates to the strength with
which the metal ions are held in a monolayer. SD is the standard deviation from three replicates.
 Modelling the Sorption of 63Ni to Granitic Materials: Application of the Component Additive Model 289

Table 3 Values depicting how the Langmuir models fits to used in the experiment. One important characteristic
sorption data. Unfavourable = Langmuir model is invalid,
of the constant Linear Kd model applied to the
Favourable = Langmuir model is valid.
sorption data is that the Rd is constant within the
Value of F Type of adsorption
F > 1.0 Unfavourable concentration limits used in the experiment.
F = 1.0 Linear 3.1.3 63Ni Sorption to Granitic Rocks and Minerals
0 < F < 1.0 Favourable by the Freundlich Model
F=0 Irreversible
Protonation/deprotonation reactions at the surfaces
of minerals create surface structures such as ≡SO-,
≡SOH, and ≡SOH2+. The adsorption of cations and
anions from the inert electrolyte leads to the formation
of surface complexes which have the character of ion
(mol·g-1)

pairs. Each of these surface complexes has its own

(mol·dm-3)
Fig. 5 Log-log plot of Ni bound and free in solution
showing Ni distribution for grey granite, and rose and
milky quartz and minerals.
calculated for RQ and MQ respectively. Work done
by Ticknor [31] concerning Ni sorption to different
geologic materials using synthetic groundwaters as the
background electrolyte gave Rd values for quartz
between -0.20 and 3.6 cm3·g-1 for a particle size range
of 106-180 microns. Thus, the results obtained in this
work for quartz support the fact that quartz is low
sorbing in synthetic groundwater and deionised water.
A high Rd value (37 cm3·g-1) was obtained for GrG
(Table 4) as compared to values obtained for GG and
RG. However, no sorption data for Ni sorption to GrG
were found in the literature to confirm the obtained
result. One important characteristic of the constant
Linear Kd model applied to the sorption data was that
the Rd stayed constant within the concentration limits
Table 4 Sorption parameters for 63Ni sorption to grey granite, milky and rose quartz.
Rd (cm3·g-1) Mean Rd ± SD (cm3·g-1)
GrG 37.3 21.8 ± 4.2
RQ 0.02 0.04 ± 0.001
MQ 0.02 0.049 ± 0.006
GrG = grey granite, RQ = rose quartz, MQ = milky quartz.
sorption energy as a result of surface heterogeneity.
Surface heterogeneity causes variation of this sorption
energy across the surface from one oxygen site to
another [5]. This heterogeneity is taken into account
by the Freundlich model. The Freundlich model, like
the linear Kd model, has no upper limit for the sorption
process in the concentration range studied. Sorption
can be described by a multilayer addition mechanism.
Experimental data obtained for Ni sorption to BG
(biotite granite) and GA (granite adamellite) were
fitted to the linearised Freundlich isotherm (Eq. (4)) as
the best fit model. From the intercept and gradient of
the linearised isotherm, the Freundlich sorption
parameters are calculated as shown in Table 5. The
result fitted well to the model (R2 = 0.99 for both BG
and GA), a Freundlich parameter N (also called the
heterogeneity factor) is calculated as 1.13 and 1.03 for
BG and GA respectively. When the heterogeneity
factor = 1, then the sorption isotherm is linear. When
the heterogeneity is greater or less than unity, the
sorption is non-linear with no saturation attained
within the concentration range studied.
Rd* ± SD (cm3·g-1·m-2) R2
13.2 ± 1.5 0.99
4.7± 0.01 0.98
5.7 ± 0.07 0.99
290 Modelling the Sorption of 63Ni to Granitic Materials: Application of the Component Additive Model
Table 5 Sorption parameters for 63Ni sorption to BG and GA. Rd* is the mean Rd corrected for surface area per gram. N is a
dimensionless factor related to the heterogeneity of the sorption sites.
Mean Rd ± SD (cm3·g-1) Rd* ± SD (cm3·g-1·M-2)
BG 10.8 ± 1.02 3.8 ± 0.36
GA 13.90 ± 2.6 4.9 ± 0.94
BG = Biotite Granite, GA = Granite Adamellite.
3.2 Application of the Component Additive Model to
Sorption of Ni to Granitic Rocks and Minerals
Two approaches have been applied to describe
sorption onto heterogeneous materials: the CA
(component additivity approach) and the GC
(generalised composite approach) approach [36]. The
CA approach is based on summing the adsorption by
the individual component minerals of a heterogeneous
sample to obtain a measure of the total adsorption of
the mixture. The summation can occur as the sum of
results for thermodynamic surface speciation models
or as the sum of pseudo-thermodynamic models for
adsorption on individual mineral phases [26]. In this
section sorption parameters derived from the
application of NEM models such as the linear and the
Langmuir models are used in the application of the
CA approach to the sorption data obtained from static
batch sorption experiments (results discussed above).
One of the methods in the evaluation of the retention
capacity of radionuclides is by use of a retardation
factor. The main input parameter in determining the
retardation factor is the Rd obtained mainly from batch
sorption experiments. For heterogeneous samples such
as granite, the sorption properties of the constituent
minerals may vary. Based on the additivity principle,
the bulk property (such as Rd) is a summation of the
properties of the component minerals [20]. However,
this concept has little or no experimental data to back
it up in published literature for Ni or Eu sorption to
granitic rocks. This section therefore aims at
investigating the CAM based on the results obtained
from static batch sorption experiments performed on
component minerals of granite.
Deductions from XRD analysis shown in Table 1
showed that the main constituents of the granitic rocks
N R2 Model
1.13 0.99 Q = 25C1.03
1.03 0.99 Q = 108C1.13
studied were quartz, feldspar and mica. Feldspar and
quartz constituted more that 95% of the mineralogical
composition of all the granite samples while mica and
other mica related minerals constituted between 1 to
10 percent. To investigate the CAM, mean Rd values
for the different sets of minerals are used (mean value
for RQ and MQ, mean value for OF and PF and MM
and BM). Also, because the different samples fitted to
different sorption models within the concentration of
metal studied, average values for the Rds are used. The
mean Rd values obtained and the analyzed
mineralogical composition are related to the bulk
percentage composition, to obtain a predicted value.
The predicted value for the minerals is summed to
obtain a predicted bulk Rd value for the granite
samples. The predicted bulk Rd value is compared
with the experimental bulk Rd value obtained.
The contribution to the bulk Rd of each granitic
mineral from its percentage composition was
calculated (as shown in column 4, 6, 8, 10 and 12 of
Table 6). To show that the CAM applied to a granitic
rock sample, the ratio
R d P r e d ic te d  1 (9)
R d C a lc u la te d
Applying Eq. (9) to sorption data showed that the
CAM was applicable more to Ni sorption to BG. The
CAM was thus applicable in the following order;
BG (1) > GA (0.7) > RG (0.5) > GG (0.2), GrG
(0.2)
Values in brackets represent the ratio of Rd
predicted and Rd calculated.
Looking at Table 6 it can be seen that the
summation of the Rds of the individual minerals of the
different granitic rocks varied from 3.9 to 22 cm3·g-1.
The results showed a fit between the predicted values
for GA, BG and RG, as shown in Table 6. Thus, the
 Modelling the Sorption of 63Ni to Granitic Materials: Application of the Component Additive Model 291

Table 6 Application of the CAM for Ni sorption to granitic rocks at constant pH and variable metal concentration.
Measured Graphic granite Granite adamellite Biotite granite Grey granite Rapakivi granite
Rd* Contribution % Contribution % Contribution % Contribution % Contribution
(cm3·g-1) %com to bulk Rd com to bulk Rd com to bulk Rd com to bulk Rd com to bulk Rd
Quartz 4 × 10-2 28 1.3 × 10-2 38 1.7 × 10-2 28 1.25 ×10-2 38.6 1.7 × 10-2 33.3 1.5 × 10-2
Mica 4.59 1 4.6 × 10-2 3 0.14 15 0.7 4.3 0.2 5.4 0.25
Feldspar 5.46 71 3.9 59 3.2 59 3.2 57 3.1 61.3 3.3
Predicted Rd 4 3.35 3.9 3.3 3.6
Measured Rd 17.2 4.9 3.8 21.8 6.6
% Com = percentage mineralogical composition of a granite sample.

CAM is shown to be applicable to sorption data
obtained from Ni sorption to BG based on the
experimental condition used. However, application of
the CAM to GG and GrG showed a disparity between
the predicted and the calculated values. The reason for
this disparity is not obvious and requires further
investigation at the metal-surface interphase. The
CAM thus depends on the detailed elucidation of the
composition of the heterogonous sample [26].
Rd measured ≈ (Rd predicted from CAM) when Eq.
(9) is valid as shown with BG.
Deductions from Table 6 include:
(1) Quartz and mica contribute less to the overall Ni
sorption capacity of intact granite. This is probably
due to the small percentage composition of mica in the
intact sample and the observed low sorption capacity
of quartz. Sorption to feldspar is thus very significant
in terms of the overall sorption ability of granites,
probably due to the high percentage contribution and
also the high sorption as observed in Table 6.
(2) The sorption capacity of intact granite sample
will not only depend on the composition of the
granitic materials, it will also depend on the effective
surface area of the mineral that is in contact with the
solution. However, for the above analysis it is
considered that an average mineralogical composition
is proportional to the effective surface area of the
mineral in contact with the solution ions.
4. Conclusions
Modelled data showed that quartz and mica
contribute less to the overall Ni sorption capacity of
intact granite. This is probably due to the small
percentage composition of mica in the intact sample
and the observed low sorption capacity of quartz.
Sorption to feldspar is thus very significant in terms of
the overall sorption ability of granites, probably due to
the high percentage contribution. Applying the effect
of BET surface area, the sorption capacity of intact
granite sample will not only depend on the
composition of the granitic materials, it will also
depend on the effective surface area of the mineral
that is in contact with the solution.
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Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering B 1 (2012) 293-298
Formerly part of Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, ISSN 1934-8932
D DAVID PUBLISHING

Research of Influence of Steam Contact Heating on

Thermal Stability of a Wall of Glass Canning Jar

Yakov G. Verkhivker1 and Ella I. Altman2

1. Odessa National Academy Food Technologies, Odessa 650039, Ukraine
2. Odessa State Academy Refrigeration, Odessa 650023, Ukraine

Received: June 15, 2011 / Accepted: October 21, 2011 / Published: March 20, 2012.

Abstract: One of ways of intensification of process of manufacture of heterogeneous tinned products of fruits and vegetables is the use
of sated water steam (Patent of USSR No. 500792). This process at application as consumer glass container for such products is
especially effective. However, there are some questions which are connected with thermal influence on glass container at realization of
such heating. The given research is devoted as the decision of practical questions arising at process engineers.

Key words: Fruits, vegetables, glass canning jar, heat, water steam.

1. Introduction 2. Methods and Data

In the production technology, tinned foodstuff For the experiments, specially prepared glass jar was
heating by the sated water steam is very often used. used. The internal and external surfaces have been
This reception is especially effective for products strengthened by six chromyl-koppel thermocouples.
which consist of firm and liquid phases. Such decision The arrangement of thermocouples on glass jar
for products which are in glass canning container is surfaces is presented in Fig. 1.
especially necessary. The values of temperature
pressure arising in glass jar walls can exceed
admissible size and lead to its destruction. As shown in
the Refs. [1, 2], maximum permissible size of pressure
for a glass jar makes σ = 12.2 MPа.
At realization of steam contact heating two cases of
processing are possible:
(1) Heating of an empty glass can;
(2) Heating of the glass jar filled with fruits.
Let’s consider each case separately, and it can define
the extent of the thermal pressure arising in a wall of a
glass can. Compared these values to the maximum
Φ 86 mm
admissible pressure, the authors will define the
possibility of use of steam contact heating.

Corresponding author: Yakov G. Verkhivker, Ph.D., main Fig. 1 Arrangement of thermocouples on external and
research fields: canned foods, processes, apparatus of food
science. E-mail: j.g.v.2007@mail.ru. internal surfaces of a glass jar.
294 Research of Influence of Steam Contact Heating on Thermal Stability
of a Wall of Glass Canning Jar
The choice of points to install the thermocouples on
surfaces of jar is caused by that all of them are in
various initial and thermal conditions. So, points 1 and
2, 5 and 6 are located in the places subject to a tension
already at manufacturing of jar, and pressure in these
sections are various because of a difference of radiuses
of curvature and a various thickness of a wall of jar.
The section in which points 3 and 4 are located is free
from initial pressure. At intake of steam in all points of
an external and internal surface of a glass can, the
various temperatures are established. In view of that
studied process is quickly variable, its registration
oscillograph use is expedient. In Fig. 2 the
experimental scheme of the research stand is presented.
The thermocouples fixed on glass jar (1) through
switchboard were connected on an input of the
oscillograph (2) electric food was carried out by means
of the source of a direct current (3) for calibration test
systems of measurement and check its work, the
potentiometer has been included in the scheme (4)
High speed of record of indications of an oscillograph
has allowed receiving indications of thermocouples
with high step-type behavior of time (0.1 sec.). Contact
heating of a glass can by water steam was carried out in
experimental installation (5).
the completion of
the oscillograph (2)
thermocouples
which fixed on
can (1)
the potentiometer (4)
Fig. 2 Installation for study of influence of contact heating by the sated water steam on thermal durability of a glass can.
3. Results and Discussion
The received experimental data are presented on
Figs. 3-5. Analyzing dependence of temperature in a
wall of empty glass canning container on time of
contact it with heating water vapor, it is possible to note
temperature of water vapor of 98-100 °C of an external
surface of glass canning container (a curve of 1),
reaching 65 °C within 15 seconds of heating and
further (till 60 seconds) this temperature actually
doesn’t change. It is connected by that though the
reflector and directs steam on an external surface of
glass canning container, its thermal potential is already
considerably lower. In that case when the reflector
completely blocks an internal surface of glass canning
container, change of temperature of its external surface
is characterized by curve 4. As appearing from the
received experimental curves, slow change of
temperature of an external surface in this case is
observed. In the first 12-15 seconds of processing,
speed of change of temperature from 0.333 degree per
second in section 1-2 to 0.75 degree per second in
sections 3-4 and 5-6. It is obviously connected by that
warming up of a wall can occurs at the expense of heat
conductivity of glass. Curve 2 shows change of
temperature of an internal surface can in the chosen
the source of direct current (3)
the experimental installation (5)
(open glass can and glass can with
reflector) with fruits and without it
the flow of water
steam
 Research of Influence of Steam Contact Heating on Thermal Stability 295
of a Wall of Glass Canning Jar

100

90

80
2
70 1
Temperature, oC

60

50 3
40

30
4
20

10

0
0 1 2 3 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Time, sec.
the first thermocouple at an open thoat jar the second thermocouple in an empty jar
the second thermocouple in jar with fruits the first thermocouple in the throat jar is bloced by reflector

Fig. 3 Change of temperature of the wall of the glass can in section 1-2.

100
2
90

80 3
70
Temperature, C
o

60
1
50

40

30

20 4

10

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Time, sec.
the third thermocouple at an open thoat jar the fourth thermocouple in an empty jar
the fourth thermocouple in jar with fruits the third thermocouple in the throat jar is bloced by reflector

Fig. 4 Change of temperature of the wall of the glass can in section 3-4.

sections. The analysis of curves shows that the most these sections there are concentrators of pressure.
dangerous section from the point of view is the The average on height section can (3-4) is more
temperature tension, which is the section of a mouth of advantage as there are no concentrators of
a glass can and its ground part. In these sections there temperature tension and the temperature gradient here
is a maximum gradient of temperature between goes down. Temperature tension can be determined by
internal and external surfaces banks and, besides, in expression:
296 Research of Influence of Steam Contact Heating on Thermal Stability
of a Wall of Glass Canning Jar

120

2
100

3
Temperature, C

80
o

60

1
40

4
20

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Time, sec.
the fifth thermocouple at an open thoat jar the sixth thermocouple in an empty jar
the sixth thermocouple in jar with fruits the fifth thermocouple in the throat jar is bloced by reflector

Fig. 5 Change of temperature of the wall of the glass can in section 5-6.

E of the heating environment, reference temperature of

  ( z) 
1  2
where:  —tangential and  Z —axial pressure;
µ—factor of Poison; Е—the module of Jung; εθ(Z)
—accordingly, relative tangential and relative axial
deformations. Calculations can be executed as in Eq.
(2):
Е
 
1 
where: α—factor of linear expansion of a material;
T—temperature of a surface of walls; Tc—average
integrated temperature of walls cans which can be
defined on resulted Eq. (3).
Final expression for definition of time is necessary
for heating of empty glass container to set average
volume temperature registers, so:
3604 . 06
  [lg  (T c  T 0 )  lg( T c  T cp )] (3)
k2
where:
β—the tabulated factor;
k  bBi 2 ( R)  cBi ( R )  d
Bi—criterion of Bio;
R—internal radius of a glass jar;
b, c, d—the tabulated factors.
The hardware, T0, Tс, Tср—accordingly, temperature
[   ( Z )   Z (  ) ]
(1)
glass can and the final average volume temperature of
jar.
The FIRST CASE: Heating an empty glass can sate
water steam. However, calculation on the given
expression allows to receive average temperature of a
glass can and not give information on difference of
(Т с  Т ) (2) temperatures on its external and internal surfaces.
These distinctions—the major factor is causing
temperature tension in the case of glass canning
container. For defining temperature difference on
internal and external surfaces of a glass can when
heating by steam, a series of experiments was put. The
executed calculations by both options allowed to
define compliances between values of arising
temperature tension in the chosen sections of glass
canning container and define their maximum
permissible values. Results are presented in the form of
dependence of a gradient of temperature between
surfaces from duration of heating by steam (Fig. 5).
Such processing allows to establish the absolute size
of gradients of temperature in the chosen sections
of a glass jar. As seen from the constructed
dependences, the maximum differences of
 Research of Influence of Steam Contact Heating on Thermal Stability
of a Wall of Glass Canning Jar
temperatures make:
 In section of a ground part of a glass can—33 K;
 On the average on height cans section—31 K;
 In section of a nimbus of a mouth cans—35 K.
In research of a tension of glass pipes at the
temperature differences, dependences of sizes εθ and εz
from temperature differences on surfaces of glass pipes
are resulted [3]. For the maximum difference of the
temperatures arising in specified sections of glass
canning container of value of size, εθ and εz are shown
respectively as the following:
 at ∆Т = 31 K, εθ = 21.0 × 10-5, εz = 15.0 × 10-5;
 at ∆Т = 33 K, εθ = 22.5 × 10-5, εz = 16.0 × 10-5;
 at ∆Т = 35 K, εθ = 24.0 × 10-5, εz = 17.0 × 10-5.
Having accepted for glass tabular values of sizes µ =
0.25 and Е = 0.635 × 105 МПа.
Let’s receive on dependence (2) for observable
differences of temperatures following values of sizes of
tangential and axial pressure:
 at ∆Т = 31 K, σθ = 16.76, σz = 13.72;
 at ∆Т = 33 K, σθ = 17.95, σz = 14.65;
 at ∆Т = 35 K, σθ = 19.13, σz = 15.58.
For specification and comparison of the received
results, Eq. (1) was used. The maximum temperature
differences arise:
 in section 1-2 on the third second;
 in section 3-4 on the twelfth second;
 in section 5-6 on the eleventh second.
Substituting respective values of time in Eq. (3), it
can receive the corresponding values so-so volume
temperatures of a wall of glass canning container. And
from dependence (2), the authors will define
temperature tension on surfaces of a wall of glass
canning container in interesting sections. They make in
this case:
 for section of a ground part can—23.75 МPа;
 for an average on height section can—22.31 MPa;
 for section of a nimbus of a mouth can—25.19
МPа.
The sizes of pressure received in this case are
calculated by Eq. (1), however, remains the same order.
297
A divergence which were noted, obviously connected
with experimental values of sizes εθ and εz were entered
into Eq. (1), received for glass pipes. Results of
calculation in Eq. (2) and their comparison to the
maximum admissible size for glass for glass canning
container is equal to 12.2 MPA.
The SECOND CASE: Contact heating by the sated
water steam of the glass filled with fruits.
In this case, fruits in glass canning container can
protect its internal surface from direct influence of
water vapor. The external surface of a glass can thus
remains under the same thermal conditions, as the
steam heating of empty canning container. In this
regard form of curves of heating of an internal surface
of glass konsevny container (curves 3 in Figs. 3-5)
changes and, therefore, distinction of temperatures
between internal and external surfaces of glass canning
container. These changes lead to other values of sizes
of the temperature pressure arising in various sections
of can. Changing temperature in time in the chosen
sections in glass canning container when filling with its
fruit, the same but absolute sizes of a gradient of
temperatures between surfaces in this case
approximately is 2.5 times lower. Arising temperature
tension in the chosen sections of glass canning
container shows as the following:
 the section of a ground part glass can—9.00 МPа;
 the average on height glass can section—8.64
MPa;
 the section of a nimbus of a mouth glass
can—10.10 МPа.
Comparison these sizes of temperature pressures
with maximum permissible value, it shows that in case
of realization of contact heating of fruits in glass jar,
the sufficient safety factor providing absence of
thermal fight cans exists the sated water steam.
Averagely, maximum permissible pressure on a glass
jar surface is 1.2-1.4 times more than actual. As shown
by the skilled data, the jar in various sections tests
sign-variable temperature pressure. The first 2-3
seconds of processing by water vapor the glass canning
298 Research of Influence of Steam Contact Heating on Thermal Stability
of a Wall of Glass Canning Jar

container tests axial compression and then tangential
stretching. On absolute value tangential stretching is
considerable (at 1.25 times), and surpass axial
compression is the most dangerous to glass canning
container. However, their sizes remain less than the
maximum admissible values.
4. Conclusions
As a result of the researches, it is shown that the
realization of contact heating by the sated water steam
of system “a glass container—fruits” in various
sections of glass canning jar, it should arise tangential
and axial pressure. The sizes of these pressures remain
less than maximum permissible values and won’t lead
to can destruction.
References
[1] B.L. Flaumenbaum, V.V. Tchernikova, Criteria of
durability of glass container at cooling, Journal of Canning
Industry 11 (1976) 40-43.
[2] G. Parcus, Unsteady Temperature Pressure, M. Fizmatgiz,
1963, p. 80.
[3] M. Maydannik, N. Kiselev, B. Rubchik, T. Kosinov,
Research of a tension of glass pipes at temperature
differences, Journal of Glass and Ceramics 7 (1974) 33-35.
Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering B 1 (2012) 299-311
Formerly part of Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, ISSN 1934-8932
D DAVID PUBLISHING

The Six Sigma Approach to Solid Waste Management

and Minimization: Moving towards Zero Landfill
Facilities

Matthew Franchetti
Department of Mechanical, Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, The University of Toledo, Toledo, Ohio 43606, USA

Received: August 26, 2011 / Accepted: September 20, 2011 / Published: March 20, 2012.

Abstract: This article provides an overview of an eleven step solid waste analysis and minimization process that is based on the six
sigma approach to problem solving that may be applied at a wide variety of organizations. The six sigma approach provides a holistic
process that focuses on minimizing defects, in this case, eliminating waste disposed at landfills. As many organizations are moving
towards “zero landfill” facilities, such a process is needed to aid in achieving these goals. The eleven step processes provides details
on establishing goals, creating process flowcharts, conducting waste sorts, data collection, establishing baseline data, identifying
improvement opportunities, cost justification, executing improvement plans and validating results. The article also includes a case
study that applies that eleven step process. The goal of the article is to provide the audience with a structured process to evaluate and
minimize solid waste generation based on cost justified improvement opportunities.

Key words: Six sigma, solid waste auditing, zero landfill, solid waste minimization.

1. Introduction minimization is an effective tool that is a necessary

1.1 Need for Waste Audits
In 2007, the United States generated 254 million
tons of MSW (municipal solid waste), up from 205
million tons in 1996. During this time, recycling
levels increased to 63 million tons, from 29 tons in
1996 [1]. Although improvements have been made,
efforts are still needed to control and minimization
solid waste generation. Such studies are relevant from
an international perspective as well. In 2002, China
generated 136.5 million tons of municipal solid waste
and 945 million tons of industrial waste, of which
over 89% were disposed at landfills [2]. These
numbers demonstrate the need for this type of research
internationally.
Industrial solid waste management and
Corresponding author: Matthew Franchetti, Ph.D.,
assistant professor, research fields: solid waste analysis and
minimization. E-mail: matthew.franchetti@utoledo.edu.
aspect in business today. Firms are discovering it to be
a profitable approach, while at the same time
enhancing their company image as environmentally
conscious and responsible. In the extremely
competitive world of manufacturing, waste disposal is
often overlooked. There are measurable costs
associated with excess raw material, scrap parts,
insufficient use of resources, and outdated materials.
All these factors contribute to a company’s waste
stream, and must be included when calculating cost of
disposal. However, many companies do not possess
the proper resources to effectively and efficiently
manage and minimize their solid waste steams.
External consultants are often required to enable
companies to optimize their solid waste handling and
disposal and minimize waste costs. Waste analysis
and minimization can be advantageous to companies
in improving their financial position and
competitiveness.
300 The Six Sigma Approach to Solid Waste Management and Minimization: Moving
towards Zero Landfill Facilities
1.2 Background
The Environmentally Conscious Design and
Manufacturing Lab, located at the College of
Engineering at The University of Toledo (Ohio)
performed no cost solid waste assessments for Lucas
County businesses and industries. Funding is provided
by a grant from The Lucas County Solid Waste
Management District with support from The
University of Toledo. University of Toledo students
and faculty conduct the waste assessments. The
primary focus of the project is to identify cost savings
for local manufactures through waste minimization
and process efficiency solutions by increasing
manufacturing competitiveness through reduced solid
waste disposal costs and optimizing the use of raw
materials, packing, and floor space. Typically the
assessments consist of: (1) an analysis of the
company’s process and overall solid waste generation;
(2) recommendations designed to help maximize
process efficiency and reduce solid waste disposal
costs; and (3) submitting a detailed reference list of
vendors that complement the recommendations.
Details regarding the history and operation of this
project were discussed in previous research [3].
1.3 Zero Landfill Facilities
Zero landfill facilities represent a philosophy that
encourages the redesign of resource life cycles and
processes so that all products are reused and any trash
sent to landfills is minimal. In industry this process
involves creating commodities out of traditional waste
products, essentially making old outputs new inputs
for similar or different industrial sectors. Common
methods utilized at zero landfill facilities include,
material reuse, recycling, composting, and energy
conversion from solid waste that would normally be
disposed at landfills. Zero landfill sites require a major
shift in the culture of an organization and usually
impacts all areas of the organization including
purchasing, processing, and administrative functions.
Zero waste can represent an economical alternative
to waste systems, where new resources are continually
required to replenish wasted raw materials. It can also
represent an environmental alternative to waste since
waste represents a significant amount of pollution in
the world.
2. Materials and Methods
After the need has been established to minimize
solid waste generation and top management supports
and allocates the necessary resources to the effort, a
solid waste assessment can be conducted at a facility.
The solid waste assessment is one of the most
important steps of the solid waste minimization
process because the data generated provides the team
and management with a much greater understanding
of the types and amounts of waste generated by the
company. These data can be invaluable in the design
and implementation of a waste minimization program.
The methodology used in the waste analysis and
minimization process was adapted from a nine step
process created by the US EPA [4]. Additional,
information from a 1996 study was included in the
audit process [5]. Both studies were enhanced with six
sigma concepts. Before “rushing in” to conduct a solid
waste assessment, proper planning should be done to
ensure the scope, goal, and timeline of the project fits
into the strategic plan of the organization. This section
provides the framework to ensure that these goals are
met using the five-step six sigma DMAIC process [6]:
 Define—establish the project team, determine the
goal, and allocate the necessary resources;
 Measure—conduct a solid waste assessment and
review existing records;
 Analyze—statistically analyze the data collected
to identify trends;
 Improve—modify the process to meet the
organizational goals established in Define stage;
 Control—ensure that the improvement initiatives
stay in place with continuous improvement and
feedback.
Six sigma is a comprehensive and flexible system
 The Six Sigma Approach to Solid Waste Management and Minimization: Moving
towards Zero Landfill Facilities
for achieving, sustaining and maximizing business
success. It is uniquely driven by a close understanding
of customer needs; disciplined use of facts, data, and
statistical analysis; and diligent attention to managing,
improving, and reinventing business processes [7].
The six sigma approach examines the organization as
a whole, or a sum of all business processes to achieve
established goals. The concept is to use data to
develop comprehensive system wide changes that will
drive environmental and economic performance
versus routine incremental improvements. Traditional
waste management focuses on managing waste
streams after the fact at the end of production
processes. Six sigma examines the full processes that
generate the waste, including raw material selection.
Six sigma gained popularity during the 1990s after
Motorola and General Electric achieved significant
quality improvement [7]. In their cases, these
companies applied six sigma to reduce variation and
defects in final products. In the case of solid waste
minimization, a defect is defined as waste entering the
landfill generated from the facility. The hierarchy of
solid waste (reduce, reuse, recycle, compost, energy
recovery) is applied to evaluate and select alternative
to minimize waste. Defining landfill waste as a
“defect” helps to shift the mindset from “business as
usual” to the zero landfill philosophy. The audit
process identifies waste that should be captured in
existing waste reduction practices (for example
aluminum cans in break areas) and waste streams that
have not been considered for minimization (such as
plastic banding in a manufacturing operation that is
not being recycled).
In addition, several examples will be provided to
further explore and explain each step of the
framework. The solid waste minimization process
consists of eleven steps:
 Establish the solid waste minimization team and
charter;
 Review existing solid waste and recycling
records;
301
 Create process flow charts and conduct
throughput analyses;
 Conduct the solid waste sorts at the facility;
 Analyze the data to determine annual generation
by work unit or area and establish baseline data;
 Identify major waste minimization opportunities;
 Determine, evaluate, and select waste
minimization process, equipment, and method
improvement alternatives;
 Develop the waste minimization deployment and
execution plan;
 Execute and implement the waste minimization
plan and timeline;
 Validate the program versus goals;
 Monitor and continually improve performance.
3. Results and Discussion
3.1 Establish the Team and Define the Project
After identifying the need to minimize solid waste
and gaining top management support, the first step in
process involves establishing the team and defining
goals. The key outcomes and deliverables of this step
are:
 a letter of support from top management to all
employees;
 team leader and member identification;
 initial training for the team;
 project goal identification including metrics;
 team charter;
 project timeline;
 project budget.
The goals of the project should be clearly expressed
as soon as possible. This will provide the team with
much needed direction and serve as the gauge to
evaluate all team activities and accomplishments. The
goals should provide a specific direction for the
project and not vague generalized improvement slogan
such as “to become an environmental leader in the
automobile engine manufacturing field” or “to reduce
the organization’s carbon footprint”. A more specific,
goal, such as:
302 The Six Sigma Approach to Solid Waste Management and Minimization: Moving
towards Zero Landfill Facilities

 Reduce the amount of solid waste generated per
year by 5% from the baseline year of 2010;
 Increase the recycling rate for metals and paper
products by 10% from the baseline year of 2010;
 Utilize environmental improvements as a
strategic weapon to provide a cost benefit of 10%
versus the baseline year of 2010 for expenditures and
revenues solid waste removal and recycling efforts.
The project timeline is one of the key deliverables
from the “define” stage. The timeline tracks project
performance versus established goals and serves as the
strategic implementation plan. The timeline should be
viewed as a control document to evaluate the progress
of the team versus pre-established milestones. Proper
planning is needed to ensure the timeline is achievable
and will meet the goals of the project. Table 1 displays
general guidelines for the time required for each step
solid waste minimization process.
3.2 Review Existing Records
Reviewing the existing organizational records for
solid waste and recycling usually provides significant
insight into the amounts, types, and patterns of waste
generation. Very useful data and information can be
gained to help focus the efforts of the team and
eliminate the need for the collection of existing raw
data. Collecting high quality records will save a great
deal of time, money and effort versus raw data
collection via a trash sort or facility walk-through. The
types of records to collect include:
 purchasing, inventory, maintenance, and
operating logs;
 supply, equipment, and raw material invoices;
 equipment service contracts;
 repair invoices;
 waste hauling and disposal records and contracts
(including one year of amounts and fees collected);
 contracts with recycling facilities and records of
earned revenues from recycling;
 major equipment list;
 production schedule (representative of a year);
 company brochure or product information;
 MSDS (material safety data sheets);
 facility layout (hard copy plus CAD copy, if
available);
 process flow diagrams.
The purpose of reviewing these records is to
determine total amount of waste generated annually,
the total amount of material recycled annually, and the
total waste removal and recycling cost structure. A
review of purchasing records can also be beneficial
to “backtrack” into an estimate of waste components

Table 1 Project timeline.

Solid waste minimization step Time (weeks)
1. Establish the solid waste minimization team and charter 2
2. Review existing solid waste and recycling records 2
3. Create process flow charts and conduct throughput analyses 2
4. Conduct the solid waste sorts at the facility 2
5. Analyze the data to determine annual generation by work unit or area 2
6. Establish baseline data 1
7. Identify waste minimization opportunities 6
8. Develop process and method improvements alternatives to minimize solid waste 6
9. Determine vendors and service providers to assist in waste minimization 3
10. Compare and decide among alternatives 1
11. Develop the waste minimization deployment and execution plan 2
12. Execute and implement the waste minimization plan and timeline 4
13. Validate the process versus goals 1
14. Monitor and continually improve performance 1
Total 35
 The Six Sigma Approach to Solid Waste Management and Minimization: Moving
towards Zero Landfill Facilities
generated. For example, shipments often arrive in
cardboard containers. By researching the number of
containers received per year and estimating the weight
per carton, the team could estimate the total weight of
cardboard boxes disposed each year. Often times, the
janitorial staff, maintenance, purchasing, and
accounting staff will be most useful when gathering
these records. In addition, customer service at the
waste hauling and recycling companies may record
more detailed records than the information that
appears on monthly invoices.
3.3 Process Mapping and Production Analysis
The goal of this step is to aid the team in fully
understanding the business processes and capabilities
of the facility. An understanding of these processes is
crucial in developing alternatives to reduce solid
waste. A process flow chart is a hierarchical method
for displaying processes that illustrates how a product
or transaction is processed. It is a visual representation
of the work-flow either within a process or an image
of the entire operation. Process mapping comprises a
stream of activities that transforms a well defined
input or set of inputs into a pre-defined set of outputs.
A well developed process flow chart or map should
allow people unfamiliar with the process to
understand the interaction of causes during the
work-flow and contain additional information relating
to the solid waste minimization project (such as tons
of waste generated per year and annual cost of
disposal).
3.4 Solid Waste Sorts
Solid waste sorts provide detailed data regarding
the composition of an organization’s waste stream.
Via the data collected from the solid waste sorts, the
organization’s waste stream can be characterized into
the various materials that comprise the entire stream,
including the annual amounts generated and the
percentage that each component contributes to the
entire waste stream. This data is invaluable when
303
evaluating cost effective methods or process changes
to divert these components from landfills. The waste
sort itself is affectionately referred to as “dumpster
diving”, since the team will physically collect, sort,
and weigh a representative sample of the
organization’s waste. This remainder of this section
discusses the process to conduct a waste sort,
including the required preparation, tools required, a
step-by-step guide, and also provides data collection
forms.
The team meeting prior the waste sort should be
held to get the team on the same page. The primary
outcomes from this meeting are training and a waste
sort plan. The training should be conducted by the
technical expert and focus on the use of tools and data
collection form. The waste sort plan should assign
team members to the various areas of the facility to
conduct data collection effectively and efficiently. The
equipment required for the waste sort includes:
 gloves;
 yard sticks;
 plastic bags;
 scales;
 clipboards (with the data collection from).
Based on the size of the facility, it may be
necessary to recruit additional support to collect data
during the waste audit. If additional help is used, these
individuals should receive the same training as the
core team. An approach that seems to work well is to
assign one temporary team member from each work
unit within the facility. For example, assign a
supervisor or shop floor worker from each production
work area such as the metal stamping unit, the paint
shop, and the accounting offices (work units will
differ by business type). The advantages of assigning
temporary team members within each work unit
include faster and more accurate data collection. As a
member of the work unit in which data is being
collected, the temporary team member will possess
specialized knowledge on the waste generation types
and amounts.
304 The Six Sigma Approach to Solid Waste Management and Minimization: Moving
towards Zero Landfill Facilities
The data collection form is the most important
document of the waste sort. The data collected with
the form will be used to extrapolate the annual
generation for the facility so care should be taken
when collecting the data to ensure accuracy. At a
minimum, the required information on the data
collection form is:
 the date the data was collected;
 the team members collecting the data (this is very
useful if follow up or clarification is needed);
 work unit and location of the waste receptacle;
 source of the waste (previous operation or
supplier);
 disposal method (baler, compactor, recycler,
un-compacted dumpster);
 size of the container in cubic feet (can be derived
from length, width and height measurements);
 the container type (desk side, recycling bin,
dumpster);
 percent full;
 times emptied (per day, week or month);
 container contents and percent of each
component;
 condition of material (loose, compacted, baled);
 notes and comments that may be useful when
analyzing the data (including names and contact
information for work units members with specialized
knowledge of the waste or generation levels).
3.5 Data Analysis
The primary outcome of the analysis phase is the
annualized waste generation baseline data for the
facility. This baseline data should be broken down by
the component waste stream (paper, metal, etc.), work
unit of generation, and how the component waste
stream is currently handled (landfill, recycled, burned,
etc.). Each component should be given in terms of
weight (tons per year) and volume (cubic yards per
year). The key questions that are answered from this
analysis are:
 What are the waste streams generated from the
facility and how much?
 Which processes of operations do these waste
streams come from?
 Which waste streams are classified as hazardous
and which are not? What makes them hazardous?
 What are the input materials used that generates
the waste streams of a particular process or facility
area?
 How much of a particular input material enters
each waste stream?
 How much of a raw material can be accounted
for through fugitive losses?
 How efficient is the process?
 Are any unnecessary wastes generated by mixing
otherwise recyclable hazardous materials with other
process wastes?
 What type of housekeeping practices are used to
limit the quantity of wastes generated?
 What types of process controls are used to
improve process efficiency?
 How much money is the company paying to
dispose of solid waste and how much revenue does it
generate from the sale of recyclable materials?
To answer these questions and to generate the
baseline data, the existing records collected, the data
gathered during the waste audit, and team member
knowledge will be used. Additional data collection or
verification may be required during the analysis
portion.
After all data has been entered into the spreadsheet,
annual generation in terms of weight and volume can
be tabulated. To estimate the annual waste stream in
both terms of weight and volume is very important
because, in general, waste haulers charge based on
volume (cubic yards that fill a dumpster) and
processors pay for recyclable materials based on
weight (tons in a bale). Below is an example
calculation for cardboard (OCC).
A company reported using a dumpster of 12 cubic
yards that was used exclusively for compacted OCC
(cardboard) that was emptied two times per month by
 The Six Sigma Approach to Solid Waste Management and Minimization: Moving
towards Zero Landfill Facilities
a recycling vendor. This data was converted into
annual tonnage using Eqs. (1) and (2).
Tons per Year = (Dumpster Size in cubic yards)
× (Times Emptied per Month) × (12 Months per
Year)
× (EPA Average Material Density - tons/cubic
yards) (1)
OCC = (12 cubic yards) × (2/month) × (12
months/year) × (0.45 tons/cubic yard) = 129.6 tons of
OCC per year (2)
3.6 Identify Minimization Opportunities
After the baseline data has been calculated, the
assessment team can begin to investigate individual
components in the waste stream that should be
targeted for reduction, reuse, or recycling. A useful
method to accomplish this task is to conduct a Pareto
analysis. A Pareto analysis is a statistical technique in
decision making that is used for the selection of a
limited number of tasks that produce the significant
overall effect. Pareto analysis is a formal technique
useful where many possible courses of action are
competing for your attention. In essence, the
problem-solver estimates the benefit delivered by each
action, then selects a number of the most effective
actions that deliver a total benefit reasonably close to
the maximal possible one. The analysis uses the
Pareto principle, which states that a large majority of
effects are produced by a few key causes, in this case
waste generation. The Pareto principle is also known
as the 80/20 rule that 80% of the effects are caused by
20% of the causes. The idea is to identify the 20%
significant wastes components that generate 80% of
the total waste and then target that 20% of significant
causes for waste minimization.
3.7 Evaluate and Select Minimization Alternatives
Once the major waste streams have been quantified,
the team can begin to develop alternatives to minimize
the solid waste and move closer to the ultimate goal of
the project. In this phase of the project, the team
305
identifies alternatives to minimize the major
components of the waste stream and evaluates the
economic and operational feasibility while rating each
alternative on its ability to achieve the waste
minimization goal. This section covers the process to
generate, screen, and select waste minimization
alternatives. In addition, a comprehensive list of
common materials that can be reduced, reused, or
recycled and a list of common waste minimization
alternatives is also provided.
3.7.1 Generating Alternatives
The alternatives are based on the existing records
review, the waste audit results, and the analysis phase.
Various methods and tools are available to develop the
initial list of alternatives. The environment in which
these alternatives are created should be done in one
that encourages creativity and free thinking by the
team. Following is a suggested list of methods to
identify and create these alternatives:
 discussions with trade associations;
 discussions with plant engineers and operators;
 internet and literature reviews;
 information available from federal, state or local
governments;
 discussions with equipment manufacturers or
vendors;
 discussions with environmental or business
consultants;
 brainstorming;
 benchmarking.
3.7.2 Common Waste Minimization Alternatives
(Materials and Methods)
This section provides a brief list of common solid
waste minimization alternatives that many companies
have successfully implemented. When considering
alternatives to minimize waste, the solid waste
minimization hierarchy should be considered.
Consideration should first be given to reducing the
waste (find a process or purchasing change to prevent
generating the waste in the first place), next reuse the
waste item, and next recycle the waste item, and
306 The Six Sigma Approach to Solid Waste Management and Minimization: Moving
towards Zero Landfill Facilities
finally disposal at the landfill. Source reduction can be
accomplished through process modifications,
technology changes, input material changes, or
product changes. The following list provides
commonly applied waste reduction and reuse
opportunities that many companies have successfully
implemented. Most of these are relatively low cost
and are considered the “low hanging fruit”, or simple
to launch.
 Office paper—many easy options exist to reduce
office paper usage including implementing an
organization wide double-sided copying policy (set
the defaults of copiers and printers to print
double-sided), reuse old paper as scratch paper, put
company bulletins in electronic form (email),
centralize files to reduce redundant copies, save files
electronically versus hard copy, and donate old
magazines to hospitals or other organizations;
 Packaging—order merchandise in bulk, work
with suppliers to minimize packing materials,
establish a reuse policy for cardboard boxes,
implement returnable containers, reuse shredded
newspaper as packing material;
 Equipment—use rechargeable batteries, reuse old
tires for landscaping or pavement, install reusable
filters, donate old furniture, sell obsolete equipment
and computers;
 Organic waste—compost yard trimmings,
choose low maintenance landscape designs, use
mulching mowers;
 Inventory/purchasing—set up an area in the
facility where employees can exchange used items,
purchase more durable products, order in bulk to
reduce packaging supplies, use a waste exchange
program;
 Zero landfill options—food waste composting
and energy recovery sites are two options for
organizations considering zero landfill status.
3.7.3 Screening Alternatives
The process of creating waste minimization
alternatives can generate hundreds of options. It would
be very time consuming for the team to conduct
detailed financial and operational feasibility
evaluations on each option. A quick screening process
can help to quickly identify the options worthy of full
evaluations and possible inclusion in the waste
minimization program. Additionally, non effective
options can be weeded out, saving the team time and
money in the evaluation process. An effective
screening process should be based on the original
goals of the project and at a minimum should
examine:
 expected solid waste reduction (tons per year);
 expected start up costs;
 impact to waste removal costs ($ per year);
 impact to purchasing costs ($ per year);
 impact on employee moral;
 ease of implementation.
3.7.4 Analyzing and Selecting Alternatives
After trimming down the list of alternatives via the
screening process, the remaining alternatives should
be further analyzed to determine the best fit for the
organization to minimize solid waste and hence
include in the program. The analysis process focuses
on identifying the benefits, costs, and drawbacks of
each alternative. To accomplish this, each alternative
is evaluated based on:
 impact on the program goal;
 technical feasibility;
 operational feasibility;
 economic feasibility;
 sustainability;
 organizational culture feasibility.
Technical and operational feasibility is concerned
with whether the proper resources exist or are
reasonably attainable to implement a specific
alternative. This includes the square footage of the
building, existing and available utilities, existing
processing and material handling equipment, quality
requirements, and skill level of employees. During
this process, product specifications and facility
constraints should be taken into account. Typical
 The Six Sigma Approach to Solid Waste Management and Minimization: Moving
towards Zero Landfill Facilities
technical evaluation criteria includes:
 available space in the facility;
 safety;
 compatibility with current work processes and
material handling;
 impact on product quality;
 required technologies and utilities (power,
compressed air, data links);
 knowledge and skills required to operating and
maintain the alternative;
 addition labor requirements;
 impact on product marketing;
 implementation time.
When evaluating technical feasibility, the facility
engineers or consultants should be contacted for input.
In addition it is also wise to discuss the technical
aspects with workers directly impacted by the change
such as production and maintenance. If an alternative
calls for a change in raw materials, the effect on the
quality the final project must be evaluated. If an
alternative does not meet the technical requirements of
the organization, it should be removed from
consideration. From a technical standpoint, the three
areas that require additional evaluation are:
 equipment modifications or purchases;
 process changes;
 material changes.
From an economic standpoint, traditional financial
evaluation is the most effective method to analyze
alternatives. These measures include the payback
period, (discounted payback period), internal rate of
return, and net present value for each alternative. If
the organization has a standard financial evaluation
process, this should be completed for each alternative.
The accounting or finance department would have this
information. To perform these financial analyses,
revenue and cost data must be gathered and should be
based on the expectations for the alternatives. This is
more complicated that is sounds, especially if a
project will have an impact on the number the
required labor hours, utility costs, and productivity,
307
not to mention initial investments. A comprehensive
estimation of the cost impacts (revenues and costs) per
year over the life of the alternative is required to begin
the analysis. The first step of the economic evaluation
process is to determine these costs. These costs
include capital costs (or initial investment), operating
costs/savings, operating revenue, and salvage values
for each waste minimization alternative.
3.8 Implementation and Execution of the Plan
A well developed deployment plan based on viable
options will yield poor results if the plan is not
executed properly. There is no such thing as
“over-communication” when it comes to rolling out a
new project or program. The three key components of
a successful implementation and execution are
following the deployment plan, communication, and
recognizing the need to adjust in certain
circumstances.
To facilitate the communication process, at a
minimum, weekly progress meetings should be held
with all key stakeholders. These meetings should
focus on the status of each project versus the timeline
and established goals. An agenda and the project
timeline should be prepared in advanced and serve to
lead the discussion. The task leader (as determined in
the deployment plan) should take the lead role in
discussing the status of each project or program. Any
obstacles or delays should be discussed so that the
team may determine solutions.
During the deployment process it is critical not to
overwhelm employees with process changes. Effort
should be taken to ensure that all employees are aware
of upcoming changes, timelines, and the reasons
behind the change. This can be accomplished with
service talks, postings or newsletters in paychecks. All
three options may be used to ensure that the message
is heard and that employees are not confused and buy
in to the programs.
In general, less effort is required for operational and
process changes. These options can usually be
308 The Six Sigma Approach to Solid Waste Management and Minimization: Moving
towards Zero Landfill Facilities
implemented in a much quicker fashion than
equipment or material changes. A general outline of
the scope of an implementation effort is provided
below:
 Approve the project or program;
 Finalize the specifications and design for each
alternative;
 Submit and gather bid requests and quotes (if
necessary);
 Complete and submit a purchase order;
 Receive and install the equipment;
 Finalize operating and maintenance procedures;
 Train affected employees;
 Start the project or program;
 Complete regulatory inspections;
 Track implemented project cost savings and
waste reductions.
3.9 Program Validation
Many organizations require a validation process to
ensure that projects and programs have met the goals
that were set at the onset of the project. This includes
validating the project or program installed at or below
cost. It is operating within the expense and revenue
limits, and it is achieving the waste reduction goals.
Even if an organization does not require a validation
process, it can be a very valuable tool for future
planning processes to identify estimation errors
occurred and take effort to correct them. Alternatives
that do not meet the established goals or expected
performance expectations may require rework or
modifications. It is also critical to store warranties and
contracts from vendors prior to the installation of the
equipment. Also, the experience gained in
implementing an option at one facility can be used to
reduce the problems and costs of implementing
options at subsequent facilities.
An alternative performance analysis should be
completed for each equipment, process, or material
change. The analysis provides a standardized method
to compare project performance again estimates in
terms of:
 project duration;
 implementation cost;
 operating expenses and revenue;
 waste reduction volume;
 cycle time and productivity;
 product or process quality;
 safety.
3.10 Monitor and Improve Performance
After the waste minimization program has been
implemented and validated it must be monitored on a
periodic basis to ensure that it is still performing as
planned and to make any necessary adjustments. This
is a critical step of the six sigma process to ensure the
successes from the assessment and team and sustained
and supported. This includes monitoring the waste
reduction amounts, operational and financial
performance versus the goals. In addition, emphasis
should be placed on continuous improvement to
enhance current waste reduction programs and to
identify new opportunities. It may be beneficial to
conduct period waste assessments, facility
walk-through, or employee interviews by the original
waste reduction team to accomplish these goals. When
evaluating the program, it is important to:
 keep track of program success and to build on
past successes;
 identify new ideas for waste reduction;
 identify areas needing improvement;
 document compliance with state or local
regulations;
 determine the effect of new additions to the
facility or program;
 keep employees informed and motivated.
In addition, considering reviewing the
organization’s waste removal receipts and purchasing
records on at least a quarterly basis is to ensure that
the waste minimization program is working. New
product or process changes should also be evaluated at
the onset to ensure that the design minimizes
 The Six Sigma Approach to Solid Waste Management and Minimization: Moving
towards Zero Landfill Facilities
environmental impact. This is easily accomplished by
adding “waste minimization review” to the new
product or process checklist or standard operating
procedure.
The waste minimization program is a continuing
versus a one time project. Generally, the first waste
assessment and implemented alternatives will target
only the high volume waste streams. Once these high
volume waste streams have been reduced, the team
can shift its focus to lower volume waste streams.
From a systems standpoint, the ultimate goal of the
team is to minimize all input materials into the facility
and by-products generated by the facility. The
frequency in which the additional waste assessments
are conducted will depend on the budget of the
company. In general, organizations that conduct
assessments one to four times per year have achieved
paybacks. In addition, if there special circumstances
that indicate the need for further review a waste
assessment should be conducted, these special
circumstances include:
 a change in raw material or product
requirements;
 higher waste management costs;
 new regulations;
 new technology;
 a major event with undesirable environmental
consequences (such as a major spill).
To be truly effective, an organizational culture of
waste minimization must be fostered within the
organization. Executive management must ensure this
through repeated communications and
acknowledgements for success stories from
individuals or business units. This will make waste
minimization an integral part of the organization’s
operations.
3.11 Case Study
This case study is summarized from an original
article published earlier [3]. In March 2006, a waste
assessment was performed at a light manufacturing
and assembly company located in Northwest Ohio
309
with over $25 million in annual sales. The company
had been privately owned since its inception
employing over 100 employees on two shifts. The
company has foreign subsidiaries and ships heavily to
the Pacific Rim. The objectives of the waste
minimization assessment were to define the various
waste streams and to identify economically feasible
options for the minimization of those waste streams.
The facility was considering transforming into a zero
landfill facility and the six sigma waste minimization
process described in this article was applied.
At the time of the assessment, the company utilized
six final waste containers. A compactor located at the
rear of the building was used for general garbage, of
which approximately 85 cubic yards (cy) per month
were generated. An on-call, dedicated OCC (old
corrugated container) trailer located next to the
compactor was collected three to four times per month.
Based on the areas targeted by the company and the
results of the audit, several distinct areas presented
opportunities to reduce collection costs in conjunction
with decreasing the amount of material which goes to
the landfill. The major areas included diversion of
urethane flashing and soiled buckets from the
dumpster, increased diversion of OCC, aggressive
office paper collection, and the diversion of mixed
plastic and label backing from the compactor.
The waste assessment team identified 14 major
waste streams produced by the company. Of these 14
streams, nine of the streams were potentially
recyclable. At the time of assessment, the company
recycled OCC, shredded office paper, pallet waste,
and metal turnings; the other potentially recyclable
waste streams were disposed of in either the
compactor or the urethane dumpster, both of which
were being landfilled. By separating the potentially
recyclable material from the waste streams, the
company significantly reduced both the amount of
material going to the landfill as well as disposal costs.
Table 2 provides the resultant alternatives for handling
310 The Six Sigma Approach to Solid Waste Management and Minimization: Moving
towards Zero Landfill Facilities

Table 2 Waste reduction possibilities by container.

Current
Current Potential Monthly
Current monthly Potential
container reduction cost
monthly disposal monthly
Waste stream volume of waste savings
generation cost reduction
allotted stream by volume pertaining to
(lbs.) pertaining to (lbs.)
(%) (%) stream
stream

Urethane dumpster (20 cubic yard open top)

Urethane flashing 2,000 22 $105.00 1,985 95 $99.75
Urethane soiled buckets 1,500 20 $95.00 1,480 95 $90.25
Urethane cans 900 20 $95.00 0 15 $14.25
Miscellaneous trash 900 18 $85.00 750 80 $68.00
OCC 300 20 $95.00 296 95 $90.25
Monthly cost savings $362.50
Current monthly disposal cost of container $480.00
Percent savings 76%
Pallet Dumpster (30 cubic yard open top)
Pallets 12,000 100 $465.00 6,075 50 $232.50
Monthly cost savings $232.50
Current monthly disposal cost of container $465.00
Percent savings 50%
Compactor (15 cubic yard compactor)
Mixed plastic 1,200 50 $575.00 945 75 $431.25
Office paper 750 15 $173.00 563 75 $5129.75
Label backing 2,700 15 $173.00 2,025 75 $129.75
Monthly cost savings $5,690.75
Current disposal cost of container $1,390.00
Percent savings 50%
Total monthly cost savings $1,285.75
Current monthly disposal costs $3,345.00
Percent savings 38%

the recyclable materials including a cost savings
analysis. Overall, the process identified over 133 US
tons for diversion from US landfills, a 90% reduction.
In addition, the process identified over $15,000 in
annual cost savings for the company. Six sigma
control tools were also implemented to monitor and
sustain results, including quality control charts that
measured the amount of waste disposed at landfills on
a monthly basis.
4. Conclusions
The overview of the waste assessment process and
case study provided in this paper demonstrates that six
sigma concepts can be applied in the solid waste
management field to improve environmental quality,
reduce waste, and increase company profitability. In
addition, this paper provides a framework for other
institutions across the world to duplicate the concepts
and processes and adopt similar programs. Solid waste
assessments based on six sigma concepts provide
several benefits to businesses and colleges that
include:
 enhanced cost savings and waste reduction
(improved profitability);
 improved company images (green);
sustained results through statistical monitoring and
evaluation.
Education of college students though practical,
real-world environmental work experience and trains
them to become future environmental leaders.
References
[1] Municipal Solid Waste in the United States 2007 Facts
 The Six Sigma Approach to Solid Waste Management and Minimization: Moving 311
towards Zero Landfill Facilities
and Figures, EPA-350-R-08-101, USEPA, Washington Hazardous Waste Engineering Research Laboratory,
D.C., 2008. Cincinnati, OH, 1988.
[2] Q.L. Wang, B.S. Dong, B. Zhou, Q. Huang, The current [5] J. Petek, P. Glavic, An integral approach to waste
situation of solid waste management in China, Journal of minimization in process industries, Resources,
Material Cycles and Waste Management 8 (2006) 63-69. Conservation and Recycling 17 (1996) 169-188.
[3] M. Franchetti, The solid waste analysis and minimization [6] W. Breyfogle, Managing Six Sigma—A Practical Guide
research project: A collaborative economic stimulus and to Understanding, Assessing and Implementing the
environmental protection initiative in northwest Ohio, Strategy That Yields Bottom Line Success, John Wiley &
The Journal of Solid Waste Technology and Management Sons, New York, 2001.
25 (2009) 88-94. [7] P. Pande, R. Neuman, R. Cavanagh, The Six Sigma Way,
[4] Waste Minimization Assessment Manual, USEPA, McGraw-Hill, New York, 2000.
Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering B 1 (2012) 312-323
Formerly part of Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, ISSN 1934-8932
D DAVID PUBLISHING

Concept of Integrated Waste Management as

Recoverable Resources in Product Cycle

Aleksandr Telizhenko1, Vadym Lukianykhin1, Sergey Kuzmenko2, Elena Lukianykhina3, Tatyana Shevchenko1,
Elena Vishnitskaya1 and Min Li1
1. Management Department, Sumy State University, Sumy 40007, Ukraine
2. Public Joint Stock Company (PJSC), Luganskgaz, Lugansk 91000, Ukraine
3. Sumy Branch of Kharkiv National University of Internal Affairs, Sumy 40007, Ukraine

Received: August 5, 2011 / Accepted: October 8, 2011 / Published: March 20, 2012.

Abstract: This paper presents a conceptual framework of integrated waste management which focuses on all stages of product life
cycle. A mechanism of resource recovery motivating from waste in economic system (designers, producers, consumers, stakeholders in
the field of disposal of the product) is suggested. The classification of institutional and economic instruments in the field of waste
management as recoverable resources is developed. The author has proposed a scientific and methodical approach to the formation of
an integrated waste management as recoverable resources, which is based on a set of methods of economic incentives at all stages of
product life cycle and ensures the maximum possible and the environmentally safe management of wastes containing valuable resource
components.

Key words: Waste, recoverable resources, integrated waste management, product life cycle, organizational-economic mechanism.

1. Introduction involves the minimization of wastes at the source of its

formation. Here, by minimization it understands not
One of the negative features of the existing
only to decrease the total amount of waste but also to
“production-consumption” system is the lack of
reduce their toxicity. The second phase is focused on
conditions for re-use of material resources that leads to
extracting resources from waste, the third involves the
the formation of significant amounts of industrial and
thermal and biological treatment (relatively solid
household waste. Often, their processing is technically
waste), the fourth is burial of nonutilizable remainder.
impossible and/or economically not feasible. This
IWM concept does not eliminate incineration as a
results in an irretrievable loss of renewable and
method of waste disposal. Moreover, thermal
nonrenewable resources, and intense pollution.
processing must be applied to the waste, which
In some industrialized countries, the leading is the
incineration is not attended by toxic emissions. This
concept of IWM (integrated waste management),
helps not only to reduce volumes of wastes, but also
which was officially adopted by the U.S.
gives possibility to get energy resource. For waste that
Environmental Protection Agency. Its provisions are
is not recyclable, not combustible or that burns with the
waste minimization, recycling and disposal
release of toxic substances, the method of disposal is
nonutilizable remainder.
used.
The first phase of integrated waste management
The concept of IWM which is based on the
integrated use of existing methods of waste

Corresponding author: Tatyana Shevchenko, assistant management also has some drawbacks. First, it focuses
lecturer, research fields: ecology oriented recyclable resources
management, motivation basics of using recyclable resources. on the use of different approaches to different types of
E-mail: tanya_goncharova@meta.ua.
 Concept of Integrated Waste Management as Recoverable Resources in Product Cycle 313

waste, but, in fact, is a traditional organization chart for underweight newborns. According to the survey of
waste management based on the storage and burning, 9,565 disposal dumps of the UK, it was found that the
which is complemented anticipating stage-extraction risk of birth defects is increased by 1% for a stay within
of the resource values. Second, often getting out 2 km of it (by 7% for those who live near hazardous
recycled resources of household waste is inefficient for waste sites) [3].
several reasons, so this step is combined with the The effectiveness of the IWM concept could be
thermal processing step, and then the thermal energy is higher if:
considered as a recoverable resource. Third, the  there were technical capabilities of waste
minimization of waste at the source of their formation transition in the category of recyclable resource;
often involves its decreasing in the production phase of  environmental safety of the resources extraction
the product and does not affect the stage of its design, from waste was ensured;
which provides technical capacity and environmental  there were economic prerequisites for recycling;
safety of the process of extracting a recyclable resource  a recoverable resource in price and quality is not
from waste. inferior to the primary one (a competitive);
It is important to note that the use of incineration and  product produced using a recoverable resource in
disposal methods does not solve the problem of waste, price and quality is not inferior to an analog of the
but only transforms it into another no less dangerous primary resource.
state. Relying on the above stated arguments, it should be
The processes of the industrial waste incineration
stated that the concept of integrated waste management
were usually accompanied by almost inevitable toxic
is unpractical because of environmentally
emissions. Russian scientists have found that the
unacceptability and significant loss of material
concentration of heavy metals in the waste gas
resources. It is aimed at maintaining the current linear
incineration of municipal solid waste is 10-100 times
system of “production-consumption”, its basic position
the concentration of the metal flue gases of power
remains the elimination of waste.
plants running on coal, i.e., emissions of heavy metals
Therefore, it needs complementation and specificity
are characteristic of incinerators. To minimize
of some of its provisions.
toxicity, it is necessary to ensure a uniform flow of
combustible material with stable caloric value and 2. Statement of the Problem
moisture content, and for municipal waste it is
almost impossible [1]. Combustion of 1 ton of One of the strategic directions of integrated waste
garbage produces 5,000 m3 of gas containing dioxins, management should be environmental-oriented
which retain their strength in the decades around management of recyclable resources, aimed at ensuring
incinerators, forming a zone of poisoning. With environmentally safe and economically viable
continuous using zone boundaries are increased to extraction of resources from waste and maximize their
30 km [2]. potential use in production.
The method of storage and disposal of waste is also Despite numerous scientific studies in the field of
unacceptable from an environmental point of view. reuse of resources, the problem of formation of
Epidemiological studies of populations living in the eco-oriented system of recyclable resources
vicinity of disposal dump showed elevated levels of management remains unsolved, namely its conceptual,
morbidity in different forms of cancer, the presence of organizational and economic framework, the
birth defects, impaired development of children development of which is the subject of this article.
314 Concept of Integrated Waste Management as Recoverable Resources in Product Cycle
3. Results
Under the eco-oriented management of recyclable
resources, it understood package of measures aimed at
RRW (resource recovery from waste). The concept of
“resource recovery from waste”, in our view, can be
regarded as a method, process and activity:
(1) The method of waste management, aimed at
obtaining a recoverable material resources from waste
as an alternative to their destruction;
(2) The process as possible and the environmentally
safe retrieval of material resource from waste and its
use in production;
(3) Various kinds of activities of economic system
are aimed at the formation of supply and demand of:
products, processing of which is technically feasible
and environmentally safe; recoverable resources;
products made with recycled resources; extraction of
resources from waste services [4].
Ecologically-oriented management of recoverable
resources can be viewed as a system of two subsystems:
control and controllable. Controllable system is a
controlled object, which is influenced by the control
system. The objects are the economic agents of the
economic system whose activity is connected with the
resource recovery from waste. The economic agents
are the subjects engaged in the design of the product,
producers, consumers of the final product, the subjects
in the field of waste management [4].
Economic agents form the market of recyclable
resources, hence, its activities must have the
motivation and incentives that promote the formation
of supply and demand for: (1) products (goods),
processing of which is technically possible and
economically feasible; (2) recoverable resources; (3)
the products (goods), produced using recoverable
resources; (4) services for the extraction of resources
from waste (components of resource recovery from
waste) [5].
With relation on the concept of continuity of the
product life cycle the areas for integrated management
of wastes as recoverable resources are set out in Fig. 1.
The first area involves waste management at the
design stage of the product. This stage addresses
questions about the possibility in principle of the
transition of waste into the category of recoverable
resource, an environmentally acceptable method and at
the same time questions about the economic feasibility
of its processing.
Leading element in the design process is
specification, which is defined as a verbal description
of the purpose with all its components and boundary
conditions. All development of specification is
essentially a process of ordering the original data. For
the entire set of requirements, that are taken into
account in designing the product of a certain quality,
one should identify critical values of parameters, their
possible variations to help in finding the optimal
solution, define boundary conditions. After ordering
the initial data the feasible set of solutions is
determined and optimum one is looked for Ref. [6].
Specification of the designed product may include
requirements relating to resource-saving of the various
stages of the product life cycle and consider its impact
on the environment. Such design can be called
ecologically-oriented.
Ecologically-oriented design is a design of product,
materials, equipment and technology, which takes into
account environmental and economic aspects of
resource-saving and aimed at reducing the
ecodestructive influence of product production and
consumption processes on the environment.
At the present stage of society development the
design is a multi-criteria concept that includes a list of
product optimization criterias, also design includes a
variety of environmental criteria that contribute to a
reduction of harmfulness of technological process and
toxicity of waste generated.
However, the design process doesn’t attend to the
aspect of resource-saving at the stage of the product
utilization.
 Concept of Integrated Waste Management as Recoverable Resources in Product Cycle 315

Waste management at the design stage of the product

Multicriteria of environmentally oriented design

Product design Design of the production Design of the production

Materials design
means technology

G
Waste Management during manufacture of the product
O
V
Industrial waste, processing of which is technologically E
impossible and economically unpractical
Production R
system consisting N
of Production waste Production waste, processing of which is
R n-technological technologically possible but economically unpractical M
processes E
E
E N
Production waste, processing of Market for industrial
N Final Return waste which is technology possible and T
wastes containing valuable
product economically feasible resource components
G
I R

N Waste management at the stage of consumption of the product E

E G

E Stimulating demand on: U

Consumption
R L
Products, processing of Products, production Products produced
I A
which is technically feasible waste of which can be with the use of RR
N and environmentally safe recycled T

G I
Waste management at the stage of disposal of the product O
N
Household waste, recycling of The market of
which is technically impossible Recycled materials recycled materials
extracted from household
Waste, recycling of which is waste
economically unpractical in
view of environmental damage
Household waste, recycling of
which economically unpractical
Municipal solid waste

Organizational and economic mechanism of state regulation

The use of economic, administrative, social and psychological tools for environmentally safe and maximal
resource recovery from waste
Redesign of products, equipment and technology for their production in order to ensure the resource recovery
from waste

Fig. 1 Areas of integrated waste management as RR (recoverable resources).

316 Concept of Integrated Waste Management as Recoverable Resources in Product Cycle

In the context of waste management as a recoverable
resource, environmentally oriented multicriteria design
should provide technical, environmental and economic
opportunities for resource recovery from waste [7].
The achievement for the above mentioned features
of resources extraction from waste at the design stage is
possible by establishing technical limitations on the
qualitative characteristics and parameters of certain the
final product, whose characteristics allow to products
for the subjects in the field of product design.
In terms of research the most important directions
for environmentally security and maximal resource
recovery from waste consists of (Fig. 2):
 extract the resource from wastes in an
environmentally safe manner;
 equipment and technological process of product
manufacturing;
 equipment and technological process of resources
extraction from waste;
 reusable materials;
 new end-products, in the production of which a
recoverable resource can be used.
Thus, in the list of requirements (specifications) of
optimization tasks of the above products design those
should be included that allow on the stage of
end-product utilization to carry out its removal, retrieve
valuable resource components and reuse them and
also to recycle waste from the manufacturing of this
product [7].
It should be noted that the greatest potential for
waste minimization is concentrated in the design stage
of products, production means and technological
process, where the possibilities of highly efficient
waste management in the later stages of product life
cycle should be provided, namely:
(1) economically reasonable level of power and
materials consumption of waste recycling;
(2) environmental safety of its recycling;
(3) technical and technological capabilities of
resource extraction from waste.
This will create the technical, environmental and
economic incentives to receive qualitative recoverable
resources (capable of competing with the primary one)
and a product from recoverable resource, capable of
competing with products from the primary resource.
These problematic aspects are not fully amenable to
solve on the subsequent stages of product life cycle and
are crucial for the extraction of resources from waste.
The second area implies the waste management in
the production phase. Regarding the specific company
the goal of this phase comes to minimize the waste
formation and to maximize its use in own production.
Recycling of certain wastes may be economically
unpractical, but it becomes economically feasible with
taking into account the prevented and caused damage
from pollution. In this case, the
organizational-economic mechanism of state
regulation must be used. This regulation involves the

The final product, processing of which is

technically possible, environmentally
acceptable and economically feasible

Equipment and technology of the

The final product, in which product manufacturing,
a recoverable resource can Products of design, processing of which is
be used providing resource technically possible
recovery from waste

Equipment and technology to

Reusable materials extract resources from the waste

Fig. 2 Product design for RRW.

 Concept of Integrated Waste Management as Recoverable Resources in Product Cycle
use of economic instruments to stimulate companies to
process the waste. However, the tools of the negative
motivational orientation, which are focused on limiting
the use of economically unfeasible methods of waste
management, must be used also.
In addition, the result of such management should be
making products, processing of which is feasible, and
the products are done of a recoverable resource. The
latter by quality should not yield product from the
primary resource and need to be competitive on price.
In the first place at this stage demand for the
development of products that can be recycled should be
stimulated. This is a prerequisite for producing
high-quality recoverable resource that can compete
with the primary one. Formation of supply on these
products (goods) is possible with the existing demand
for them [7].
The third area focuses on wastes management as
recoverable resources at the consumption stage of the
product. Such management involves stimulating
demand for products (goods): which resource renewal
is technically feasible and environmentally acceptable;
waste products of which can be recycled; which has the
recoverable resource in its composition.
The fourth area involves waste management at the
stage of the product disposal. This area assumes the
formation of appropriate infrastructure and services for
the extraction of components from valuable resource
waste.
Efficiency of management of wastes as recoverable
resources at all stages of product life cycle is
conditioned by the effectiveness of the functioning of
organizational-economic mechanism of state
regulation [8, 9]. Its role is to create an infrastructure
market through the creation of a motivational
mechanism for the different subjects of the economic
system, whose activity is connected with the resources
recovering from waste.
Organizational-economic mechanism of wastes
management as recoverable resources is based on the
restrictive and incentive instruments stimulating
317
maximum possible and ecologically safe resource
recovering. These tools should be aimed at all subjects
of economic system to ensure product design,
production and consumption which meet the principles
of resource recovery from waste.
Certain component of the proposed scheme of
integrated waste management as recoverable resources
is alternative ways of meeting the needs of the product
consumer. In the environmental and economic
assessment of these alternatives the cost analysis is
very important. In particular, when substituting one
product by another, it is necessary to evaluate the
significance of its new properties and functions. At the
same time it is necessary to determine the ecological
value of the product life cycle with the emergence of
new properties and functions. Environmental cost in
this case includes the need for material and energy
resources, as well as damage from pollution arising at
all stages of product life cycle (including the stage of
disposal) [7].
Thus, the concept of integrated waste management
should include aspects related to the technical
possibilities of extracting resources from waste, and
environmental safety and economic feasibility of the
process. The idea of this concept is feasible, if the
possibility of its implementation will be provided at
earlier stages of product life cycle.
This idea is important for eco-oriented system of
management of recyclable resources, which is broadly
based on the application of knowledge in the field of
RRW and its further use.
As noted above, the efficiency of resource extraction
is caused by the creation of motivational and
organizational arrangements for the subjects of the
economic system, related to different stages of product
life cycle. The formation mechanism of motivation of
resource recovery from waste is shown in Fig. 3.
A study of prerequisites for the formation of a
motivational mechanism for these subjects revealed
that only market regulation of resource recovery from
waste is inefficient, because the market mechanism is
318 Concept of Integrated Waste Management as Recoverable Resources in Product Cycle

The motivational component of the resource recovery from waste process

RRW motivation for each of the subjects of the economic system caused by the instruments of
government regulation and incentives on the part of other subjects

Subjects in the design of the Consumers of The subjects in the field

Product
product the product of waste management
manufacturers

Additional motivation for each of the subjects in the field of RRW from other subjects of the
economic system by the presence of backward and forward linkages between them

Market regulation

Motivation of subjects of the economic system in the RRW induced by tools of state regulation

Subjects in the design of the Product Consumers of The subjects in the field of
product manufacturers the product waste management

The influence of state regulation tools on the subjects of an economic system whose activity is
associated with resource recovery from waste

Government regulation

Fig. 3 The mechanism of motivated resource recovery from waste for the subjects of the economic system.

not able to display the social benefits of waste waste.

containing valuable resource components. Government
regulation can motivate the subjects of the economic
system to operate in the direction of resource
recovering and thus creates the conditions for market
regulation.
State regulation provides for the formation of
organizational and economic mechanism of
ecologically-oriented management of recoverable
resources, that means a combination of methods and
tools to encourage subjects of the economic system to
carry out activities related to environmentally safe and
maximum possible using of the resource potential of
It is important to note that each subject resolves
certain problems in the field of RRW [4], and different
tools should be directed to solve it.
A certain set of tools is typical for each specific
territory [10] and is aimed at encouraging long-term
and priority, as well as restraint unpromising and
flawed decisions of business subjects. Stimulating
instruments include preferential tax on profits,
preferential credits, accelerated depreciation,
exemption from payment of VAT, exemption from
payment for land, backing, subsidies, direct financing
of certain activities, grants, and many others. Among
 Concept of Integrated Waste Management as Recoverable Resources in Product Cycle 319

the limiting tools ones can be marked out like: systemacy—focusing of tools on various types of
environmental payments, the establishment of stricter activity of the economic system; the priority of
standards for waste disposal, additional taxation, environmental security—aimed at implementing the
licensing, standards, fines, penalties, etc. [11-13]. most environmentally friendly options for waste
Tools that can be employed to stimulate the RRW management; complexity—influence of tools at all the
can be classified into a number of features identified in components of resource recovery from waste;
Table 1. consistency—focusing on supply and demand
It is important to note that the use of institutional and components of the RRW; multi-directional
economic instruments for waste management as motivational influence—the use of tools of different
recoverable resources relies on several principles: types of motivational influence on the subjects of the
Table 1 Classification of institutional and economic instruments in waste management as recoverable resources.
Classification criterion The focus of the instrument
-Economic
1. By the direction of influence -Legal and administrative
-Socio-psychological
-A positive motivational orientation
2. By type of motivation
-A negative motivational orientation
-Relating to the design stage of the product
-Production of the product
3. By stages of product life cycle
-Consumption of the product
-Disposal of the product
-Focused on incineration
4. By the method of waste treatment -Disposal
-Resource recovery from waste
-Influencing on subjects in the product design area
-On subjects of mining and processing industry
5. By effect on the subjects of an
-On manufacturers of end products
economic system in the RRW
-Focused on consumers of products
-On Subjects in the recycling
-Economic motivation
6. By the type of motivational influence
-Psychological motivation
-A recyclable resource
-A primary resource
7. By the effect on the component of RRW -A product produced (partly or fully) from RR
-Services of waste processing in order to obtain RR
-Products, processing of which is technically impossible
-Demand stimulating as a the part of RRW
8. By the part of the market
-Supply stimulating as a the part of RRW
-To improve the quality of RR
9. By the direction of the influence on the
-To reduce the price of RR
elements of competitiveness
-To increase the price of primary resource
-To ensure the technical capabilities of resource extraction from waste
10. By type of problem solving in the field
-The ecological safety of resource extraction from waste
of RRW
-The economic feasibility of resource extraction
-Short-term (temporary)
11. By a period
-Long-term
-Paper and paperboard
12. By the direction of the influence on -Plastics materials and resins
waste of the final products -Ferrous and nonferrous metals
-Batteries, etc.
-Mining waste
-Waste of fuel and energy complex
13. By the direction of the influence of
-Waste of ferrous and nonferrous metallurgy
industrial wastes of various industries
-Waste of mechanical engineering
-Waste of chemical and petrochemical industry, etc.
320 Concept of Integrated Waste Management as Recoverable Resources in Product Cycle
economic system; an individual approach—taking into
account regional and sectoral characteristics;
consistency—the use of tools for consistant achieving
of various levels of RRW; specification—focusing on a
particular type of waste.
Thus, the formation of organizational-economic
mechanism of management of wastes as recoverable
resources is an objective necessity, caused primarily by
the lack of motivation of resource recovery from waste
from the subjects of the economic system.
The formation of a highly efficient system of
integrated waste management as recoverable resources
depends not only on stimulating all subjects of
economic system, but also on creating the necessary
conditions for their activities in that direction. These
conditions are the scientific, technical, methodological,
organizational, financial and information support.
Scientific and technical support for resource
recovery from waste results from scientific research in
the field of designing and redesigning products,
materials of its production, equipment and technology.
Research in the field of reusable materials reduces
energy and material consumption (resource
consumption) and reduces damage intensiveness in the
process of recycling of waste containing valuable
resource components.
Methodical provision of resource recovery from
waste is associated with the development of scientific
and methodological approaches to extract resources
from the waste. It includes: regulatory and technical
support associated with the development and
implementation of standards for the design and
manufacture of products that provide the technical
possibilities of extracting valuable resource
components at the stage of their disposal.
Organizational support suggests the formation of an
appropriate infrastructure to provide services related to
the sorting of household waste and recycled resources
collecting, as well as the establishment of technical and
technological base for the processing of waste
containing valuable resource components [14].
Financial support for the activities of subjects
engaged in designing a product that meets the principles
of resource recovery from waste; funding the production
of a product that meets the principles resource
recovering; financial support for the processing of waste
containing valuable resource components.
Information support of subjects is in the field of
product design and production and in the field of
recycling. It should provide the population with
objective information about quality characteristics of
the product from recoverable resource; creation of
advisory services to facilitate the establishment of
scope for extracting resources from waste and their use;
the formation of ecological awareness for sorting solid
municipal waste.
Briefly summarizing the above, it should be noted
that the proposed integrated approach can increase the
amount of recyclable waste (Fig. 4), and therefore the
amount of recoverable resource. If it is competitive (by
quality it will not concede the primary one, and the
price of it won’t be higher), there will be an effect of
substitution of the primary resource by recoverable one.
This effect is the prevented damage from
environmental pollution arising in the process of
obtaining a primary resource, as well as prevented
damage from disposal of waste containing valuable
resource components.
4. Approbation of Survey Findings
The paper further denotes the specific economic and
administrative instruments that can be used for subjects
of economic system in RRW for the purpose of solving
the challenges they face (Fig. 5).
Defining the economic tools for the implementation
of environmentally safe and maximum possible RRW,
it is necessary to point out some features related to the
formation of supply and demand of the above
components of this process (see components of RRW):
(1) As Pearce and Walter [15] rightly pointed, taking
action solely to stimulate the supply of recycled
materials (such as implementing mandatory separate
 Concept of Integrated Waste Management as Recoverable Resources in Product Cycle 321

Natural
environment

Stages of life cycle of the

primary resource

Primary
Prospecting Mining Concentration resource
Processing

Product design Product production Product

Stages of life cycle of the product consuming

Processing
Extraction of recycled Recoverable
of recycled Consumption
materials from waste resource
materials Production waste
waste

Stages of life cycle of the

recoverable resource
Integrated waste
Recyclable management
waste (recycling)

Neutralization Unusable waste

Fig. 4 Stages of life cycle of the product, primary and recoverable resources.

collection of waste paper) will likely cause its price
reduction and this may lead to the fact that some part
of the waste paper will not find a market. Much of the
attention should focus on measures that stimulate
demand, thus providing for the waste processing
enterprises the incentive to find ways of increasing
demand; but the reverse does not always occur. Thus,
it should be emphasized that if there is no possibility
to increase the demand for recycled materials, all
measures to increase market supply will not lead to
overall expansion of resource recovering.
(2) Adoption of measures aims solely at creating
demand and supply in the recyclable resources,
ignoring the demand for products from recycled
materials, production and consumption of products,
recycling of which is technically possible, encourage
the provision of a waste management will not
promote the maximum possible RRW.
It is important to note that the greatest potential of
resource recovering is concentrated exactly on the
products development stage, where waste material
may be used to get a resource and repeatedly use it in
production. The quality of extracted resource and its
environmental characteristics should not yield to the
primary counterpart, and the price should not be
higher than the price of primary resources. In this
case, the demand will be formed, and hence the
proposal for a recyclable resource. The reverse does
not always occur.
(3) Along with tools that are designed to encourage
long-term and priority decisions on waste
management (activities related to resource
recovering), the tools must be used that constrain
unpromising and incompetent decisions of economic
322 Concept of Integrated Waste Management as Recoverable Resources in Product Cycle

Subjects of Profile of tasks Tools to influence subjects of economic system

economic system

 Product development, processing of which

is technically feasible and
The subjects environmentally safe and waste products
engaged in the of which can be recycled;  Limitation for registration and implementation of
design of the  Development of equipment, technologies projects that do not meet the principles of RRW;
product and materials for the above-mentioned  Awarding the best inventions that meet the principles
products; of RRW, etc..
 Development of equipment and
technology for environmentally safe
extraction of resources from industrial and
household waste.
 Preferential taxation of enterprises that offer the most
 Production of products which technically possible replacement (according to the
characteristics make possible recovering specifications) of the primary resource by recoverable
Product (partially or completely) resource from its one;
waste;  establishment of a differentiated fee for processing of
producers
 Production of products using recycled packaging;
resource;  Grants, subsidies, preferential loans for enterprises
 Financial provision by company for engaged in the implementation of technologies that
processing of packing produced by it; allow to reduce the waste that can not be recycled;
 Redistribution of waste through the  Additional taxation of products and packaging
exchange, buying and selling; processing of which is technically impossible;
 Maximum replacement of primary resource  Additional taxation of products in which the primary
by recoverable one. resource is not be replaced by a recoverable one in spite
of technical possibility of such a replacement, etc..

 Consumption of products manufactured  Establishment of collateral value to the products,

using recycled resource; resource recovering of which is technically possible
Consumers of
 Consumption of products that allow and economically feasible;
the final
resource recovering from its waste;  Establishment of discounts when purchasing a new
product
 Executing of municipal solid waste product in exchange for old, if its processing is
sorting; technically feasible;
 Redistribution of consumer products that  Introduction of fees for individual waste generation;
have a certain value.  Increase in tariff for waste disposal at the landfill, etc..

 Subsidies, grants, direct funding, preferential loans for

 Providing conditions for sorting enterprises, which purchase production facilities for
The subjects (decentralized) of municipal solid waste; processing waste to produce recoverable resource;
in the field of  Collection and additional sorting of  Preferential taxation and crediting of enterprises that
disposal of recycled material and its selling to the create the conditions for the sorting of solid waste and
the product final consumer; collect recycled materials;
 Processing of recycled material in order to  Preferential taxation of enterprises that collect and
obtain a recyclable resource, capable of transport waste and recycled materials;
competing with the primary one.  Preferential taxation of enterprises, which process
recycled materials, etc..

Fig. 5 Organizational and economic tools for waste management as a recoverable resource.

subjects in this area (actions of providing for the waste
destruction and disposal, as well as environmentally
hazardous waste management). Consequently, the
promotion should have both positive and negative
motivational orientations.
(4) The incentive actions should include different
subjects of the economic system and to treat all stages
of product life cycle. These mandatory agents are
mining and processing industries, producers and
consumers, designers of the final product, equipment
 Concept of Integrated Waste Management as Recoverable Resources in Product Cycle
and technology of its production, as well as subjects in
the field of recycling.
5. Conclusions
To achieve the maximum possible and
environmentally safe resource recovery from waste it is
not enough to motivate the subjects in the field of
recycling. If you do not use the tools in respect of
subjects engaged in the design and manufacture of the
product and its customers, there will be left many
unsolved problems.
To summarise, it is important to note that the
proposed scientific and methodical approach of
integrated waste management can not only help to
achieve the highest possible level of resource
extraction from waste, but also increase this level itself.
References
[1] A.V. Karalyunets, Fundamentals of Environmental
Engineering, Waste Management of Production and
Consumption: The Manual, Printing House MEI, Moscow,
2000, p. 104.
[2] V.L. Pilyushenko, Marketing of Recoverable Resources:
The Manual, Donetsk, 2003, p. 227.
[3] R. Murrey, Target-Zero Waste: The Manual, Printing
House, Сouncil of Greenpeace, Мoscow, 2004, p. 232.
[4] N.K. Shapochka, T.I. Shevchenko, Management of
resource recovery from wastes, Bulletin of Sumy State
University 2 (2009) 113-119.
[5] N.K. Shapochka, T.I. Shevchenko, Resource recovery
323
from waste as a component of ecological economic system,
in: Proceedings of the II International Scientific and
Practical Conference Growth of the Republic of Belarus:
Globalization, Innovation, Sustainability, Minsk, 2009, pp.
83-84.
[6] G.M. Bogdanov, Product Design: Organization and
Methodology of Formulating the Problem, Standarts
Publishing, Moscow, 1995, p. 144.
[7] T.I. Shevchenko, Resource-saving at the stage of disposal
of the product as one of the areas of multi-criterial
environment-oriented product design, in: Environmental
Management in the Overall System Management:
Materials of IX Annual Ukrainian Conference, Sumy,
2009, pp. 156-157.
[8] E.R. Gubanova, The mechanism of economic and
environmental stimulation of recoverable resources,
Monograph, Odessa, 2009, p. 280.
[9] І.M. Sotnik, Ecological and economic mechanisms for
resource motivation: Monograph, University Book, Sumy,
2008, p. 357.
[10] G.P. Vigovska, V.S. Mіschenko, Regional aspects of
waste management, Regional Economy 3 (2000) 130-140.
[11] S.K. Harichkov, Financing tools in the treatment of solid
industrial waste, Economy of Ukraine 7 (2005) 82-88.
[12] M.A. Hvesyk, Economic legal regulation of nature
management: Monograph, Condor, 2004, p. 524.
[13] T.I. Shevchenko, Recycling resources: Experience of
foreign countries, in: 16th International Student
Conference Economics for Ecology, Sumy, 2010, pp.
139-140.
[14] T.I. Shevchenko, Extraction of resources from waste: The
motivational aspects, Solid Mmunicipal Waste 5 (2010)
14-17.
[15] D. Pearce, Y. Walter, The Use of Recyclable Resources:
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Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering B 1 (2012) 324-335
Formerly part of Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, ISSN 1934-8932
D DAVID PUBLISHING

High Resolution Regional and Coastal Operational

Storm Surges/Tide Forecasting System in Korea

Sung Hyup You1, Woo Jeong Lee2, Ji Hye Kwun2, Jang-Won Seo1 and Sang Boom Ryoo2
1. Marine Meteorology Division, Observation Infrastructure Bureau, KMA, Seoul 156720, Korea
2. Global Environment System Research Laboratory, National Institute of Meteorological Research, KMA, Seoul 156720, Korea

Received: July 27, 2011 / Accepted: September 23, 2011 / Published: March 20, 2012.

Abstract: This study was performed to compare storm surges/tide simulated by the regional and coastal storm surges/tide forecast
system (RTSM (regional tide/storm surges model), CTSM (coastal tide/storm surges model)) using two different inputs from weather
models (RDAPS (Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System) and KWRF (Korea Weather and Research Forecasting)) during
two typhoons that occurred between 2007 and 2008. Both the RDAPS and KWRF are the operational weather forecasting system in
KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration). The horizontal resolutions of RDAPS and KWRF are 30 and 10 km, respectively. The
storm surges/tide was hind casted using sea wind and pressure fields of two Typhoons which was approaching Korean Peninsula. The
CTSM using input from KWRF simulate very well the storm surges/tide pattern in the complex coastal areas. The result showed that
the storm surges by the coastal storm surges/tide model with high resolution input was in well agreement with the observed sea level
occurred by high tide and storm surges in the coastal areas.

Key words: Storm surges/tide, RTSM, CTSM, RDAPS, KWRF, KMA.

1. Introduction with high computing environment. The development of

high resolution model is very essential to predict the
The coastal areas around Korean peninsula are one
storm surges patterns in the complex coastal area of
of the challenging places in ocean modeling for
Korea. The main objective of this study is to apply and
reasonable prediction of near shore storm surges/tide
verify the high resolution regional and coastal storm
conditions. Various oceanographic systems interact
surges/tide operational prediction system using
along the coast of Korea, which has a complex
atmospheric condition by different weather forecasting
coastline and a high tidal range along western and
model.
southern region and deep depth and no tide along
Since 2006, the NIMR (National Institute of
eastern region. With increasing property development
Meteorological Research)/KMA (Korea
along coastal regions, storm surge damage is becoming
Meteorological Administration) has operated regional
an important concern and accurate forecasting is
storm surges/tide prediction system, called RTSM
crucial. For Korea’s coastal regions, floods caused by
(regional tide/storm surges model), with 8 km
typhoon-induced storm surges are among the most
horizontal resolutions including the Yellow Sea, East
serious threats. To protect lives and property, accurate
China Sea and the East Sea, marginal seas around
forecasting of storm surges is essential.
Korea. Also it developed the high resolution coastal
Establishing of newly devised storm surge/tide
storm surges/tide prediction system (CTSM: coastal
prediction system of KMA is underway in conjunction
tide/storm surges model) in order to produce detailed
ocean forecasting field. Developed CTSM covers 6
Corresponding author: Sung Hyup You, deputy director, coastal areas around Korea peninsula. The horizontal
Ph.D., main research fields: marine meteorology, physical
oceanography. E-mail: shyou@kma.go.kr.
 High Resolution Regional and Coastal Operational Storm Surges/Tide
Forecasting System in Korea
grid intervals are 1 km for each area. The model output
from RTSM is used for boundary condition of CTSM.
In this study, sea surface wind and mean sea level
pressure from the RDAPS (regional data assimilation
and prediction system) and KWRF (Korea weather and
research forecasting) are used for forcing input of
storm surges/tide model. Both the RDAPS and KWRF
are the operational weather forecasting system in KMA.
The horizontal resolutions of RDAPS and KWRF are
30 and 10 km, respectively. The storm surges/tide were
hindcasted using sea wind and pressure fields of
Typhoon Usagi (0705) and Kalmaegi (0807) which is
approaching Korean Peninsula.
2. Methods and Data
The RTSM covers the northwestern Pacific Ocean
from 115-150°E, 20-52°N (Fig. 1). The horizontal grid
intervals are 1/12° in both latitudinal and longitudinal
directions. The model bottom topography is based on the
National Geophysical Data Center ETOPO5 data with
5-min resolution. As mentioned, the CTSM covers 6
coastal domains around Korean Peninsula (Fig. 1) with
the horizontal grid intervals are 1 km for each area. The
model output from regional storm surges/tide prediction
system is used for boundary condition of coastal storm
surges/tide prediction system.
The storm surge/tide model used in this study was
based on the POM (Princeton Ocean Model), a
primitive general ocean circulation model described by
Mellor [1]. From POM, it made a two-dimensional
depth-integrated tide and storm surges model with an
Arakawa C-grid system. The amplitudes and phases of
the tidal constituents of the open boundary condition
are taken from eight constituents (M2, S2, K1, O1, K2, P1,
N2, and Q1) described by Matsumoto et al. [2]. Detailed
model descriptions are found in Refs. [3, 4].
In order to acquire atmospheric conditions, sea
winds and mean sea level pressure, it used results by
two operational models. The operational weather
models of KMA are the RDAPS with 30-km grid
resolution, and the KWRF with 10-km grid resolution.
The domain of two operational weather models fully
325
covers our tide/storm surge model domain.
The RDAPS is based on MM5 (Mesoscale Model 5)
and is first operational weather prediction system of
Korea. The RDAPS currently provides meteorological
information for the KMA’s operational storm
surge/tide prediction system. The KWRF model is the
next-generation mesoscale weather prediction system
of the KMA in current operation. The KWRF is based
on the WRF model but has been revised to suit the
meteorological and geographical features of the
Korean region. The paper conducted eight experiments
with two different storm surge model (RTSM, CTSM)
and weather model (RDAPS, KWRF) to investigate the
differences in simulated storm surge heights and to
verify the results using observations. The
characteristics of each model are described in Table 1.
The paper compared the sea level observed at tidal
stations during the two Typhoons with those predicted
by regional and coastal storm surge/tide model,
conducting statistical analysis to determine the bias
(mean error, Eq. (1)) and root mean square error RMSE
(root mean square error), Eq. (2)) between modeled
and observed values as follows :
1
bias =
N
∑ (Y m − Y o ) (1)
RMSE =
1
∑ (Y m − Y o )2 (2)
N
In the above equations, N is the total number of data,
Ym is the predicted sea level, Yo is the observed sea
level, Ym is the average predicted sea level, and Yo
is the average observed sea level.
3. Results
The authors analyzed storm surges for typhoons
Usagi and Kalmeagi that occurred in 2007 and 2008,
respectively. Fig. 2 shows the best tracks of these two
typhoons. Typhoon Usagi originated at 18.1° N,
144.5° E around 06UTC, July 29, 2007 from the
northern part of Guam and struck Kyushu with a
maximum central pressure and wind speed of 965 hPa
and 36 m/s, respectively, at 18:00 KST, August 2,
2007.
326 High Resolution Regional and Coastal Operational Storm Surges/Tide
Forecasting System in Korea

(a) Regional domain (b) Coastal domain

(c) Coastal topography

Fig. 1 Schematic view of (a) domain of regional model with topography; (b) locations of the selected coastal stations and
domain of coastal model with (c) topography.
 High Resolution Regional and Coastal Operational Storm Surges/Tide 327
Forecasting System in Korea

Table 1 Model configuration.

RDAPS KWRF
Model MM5 WRF
Domain 80°E-170°E, 10°N-62°N
Horizontal resolution 30 km 10 km
Dimension 171 × 191 574 × 514
Time steps 75 sec 60 sec
Forecast time 12 hr FDDA + 78 hr 60 hr
Initial & boundary conditions GDAPS GDAPS
Vertical layers 33/50 hPa (model top) 40/50 hPa (model top)
Explicit moisture Mixed phase (water vapor, cloud, rain, ice, snow) WSM6(WRF sing-moment 6 class)
Cumulus scheme Kain-Fritsch New Kain-Fritsch
PBL scheme MRF YSU
Ground model 5-layer soil model Noah LSM(4-layer)
Radiation scheme Cloud radiation RRTM(longwave)/Dudhia scheme (shortwave)
RTSM CTSM
Model POM POM
RGW1: 36.50°-38.50°N, 124.0°-127.0°E
RGW2: 34.75°-36.75°N, 124.0°-127.0°E
115°E-150°E RGS1: 33.00°-35.00°N, 125.0°-128.0°E
Domain
20°N-52°N RGS2: 33.50°-35.50°N, 127.5°-130.5°E
RGE1: 37.00°-39.00°N, 128.5°-131.5°E
RGE2: 35.25°-37.25°N, 128.5°-131.5°E
Horizontal resolution 8 km 1 km
Dimension 421 × 385 361 × 241
Time steps 200 sec 60 sec
Forecast time 48 hr 24 hr
Hot start RTSM boundary data
Initial & Boundary Conditions
8 tidal constituents 8 tidal constituents
RDAPS sea wind and RDAPS sea wind and
Forcing data mean sea level pressure mean sea level pressure
(3 hours interval) (3 hours interval)

Fig. 2 Tracks of typhoons Usagi (0705) and Kalmaegi (0807).

328 High Resolution Regional and Coastal Operational Storm Surges/Tide
Forecasting System in Korea

Typhoon Kalmaegi originated at 18.1°N, 123.7°E typhoon tracks.

around 06UTC July 15, 2008 from the northeastern
part of Philippines and struck Taiwan with a maximum
central pressure and wind speed of 970 hPa and 35 m/s,
respectively, at 12UTC, July 17, 2008 and moved
northeastward along coast of China.
Detailed specifications and verification of model are
found in Refs. [5, 6]. The atmospheric conditions from
these two operational models are verified in sea wind
[5] and mean sea level pressure [6]. In Ref. [5],
typhoon track and intensities of RDAPS and KWRF
showed good agreements compared with best track
information of typhoon Manyi and Usagi in 2007 and
KWRF showed better performance in predicting the
Kwun and You [5] and You and Kwun [6] showed
that the RMSEs (root mean square error) of sea wind
between model (RDAPS, KWRF) and observations
(AWS, ASOS) are 2.48 (RDAPS) and 2.52 m/s
(KWRF) during Typhoon Usagi period. Also the
RMSE of MSLP between models and observations are
2.03 (RDAPS) and 1.54 hPa (KWRF), respectively.
Based on these researches, sea wind and MSLP from
RDAPS and KWRF produce reasonable atmospheric
input to storm surge model.
The RTSM and CTSM are simulated by the sea
winds and mean sea level pressure of RDAPS and
KWRF. Fig. 3 shows the horizontal sea wind and mean

(a) RDAPS, Typhoon Usagi

(b) KWRF, Typhoon Usagi

 High Resolution Regional and Coastal Operational Storm Surges/Tide 329
Forecasting System in Korea

(c) RDAPS, Typhoon Kalmaegi

(d) KWRF, Typhoon Kalmaegi

Fig. 3 Horizontal distribution of mean sea level pressure and surface wind: (a) RDAPS, Typhoon Usagi, (b) KWRF, Typhoon
Usagi at 00UTC Aug. 2, 2007 and (c) RDAPS, Typhoon Kalmaegi, (d) KWRF, Typhoon Kalmaegi at 00 UTC Jul. 20, 2008.

sea level pressure by RDAPS and KWRF during
Typhoon Usagi (00UTC Aug. 2, 2007) and Kalmaegi
(00UTC Jul. 20, 2008). Cyclonic circulation of strong
sea winds by the two typhoons was well represented by
the RDAPS and KWRF.
Fig. 4 shows the spatial distribution of simulated
storm surge elevations by RTSM and CTSM at same
time of Fig. 3. In 2007, typhoon Usagi approached the
southern part of Japan while not making direct landfall
on Korea. The RTSM and CTSM runs using two
different inputs of RDAPS and KWRF were carried out
for same typhoon period. In the RTSM’s results,
Typhoon Usagi had maximum storm surges of 30 cm
and 45 cm by the input of RDAPS and KWRF,
respectively, which influenced Kyushu Island. The
CTSM results show the similar results with RTSM in the
coastal area.
Fig. 5 presents time-series comparisons between
modeled and observed total sea level and storm surges
excluding astronomical components at selected coastal
330 High Resolution Regional and Coastal Operational Storm Surges/Tide
Forecasting System in Korea

(a) RDAPS, Typhoon Usagi

(b) KWRF, Typhoon Usagi

 High Resolution Regional and Coastal Operational Storm Surges/Tide 331
Forecasting System in Korea

(c) RDAPS, Typhoon Kalmaegi

(d) KWRF, Typhoon Kalmaegi

Fig. 4 Simulated storm surge height by RTSM and CTSM: (a) RDAPS, Typhoon Usagi, (b) KWRF, Typhoon Usagi at 00UTC
Aug. 2, 2007 and (c) RDAPS, Typhoon Kalmaegi, (d) KWRF, Typhoon Kalmaegi at 00 UTC Jul. 20, 2008.
332 High Resolution Regional and Coastal Operational Storm Surges/Tide
Forecasting System in Korea

Fig. 5 Time series of the observed and computed storm surges at Yeosu (upper) and Boryeong (lower) tidal stations during
Typhoons Usagi and Kalmaegi periods.

stations for two typhoons. Observed storm surge calculated using 64 harmonic constituents.
heights were defined by observed sea level minus Table 2 and Fig. 6 show statistical comparisons
calculated tidal level, where tidal elevations were between predicted and observed sea level for the two
 High Resolution Regional and Coastal Operational Storm Surges/Tide 333
Forecasting System in Korea

Table 2 Mean bias and RMSE storm surge statistics (in cm) of RTSM and CTSM predicted by RDAPS and KWRF for
typhoon Usagi (0705) and Kalmaegi (0807).
Typhoons Ocean models Weather models Bias (cm) RMSE (cm)
RDAPS 3.62 8.63
RTSM
KWRF 3.53 8.60
Usagi (0705)
RDAPS 3.21 8.47
CTSM
KWRF 3.04 8.37
RDAPS 6.18 8.80
RTSM
KWRF 5.45 8.38
Kalmaegi (0807)
RDAPS 5.37 7.99
CTSM
KWRF 4.61 7.52

(a) Typhoon Usagi

334 High Resolution Regional and Coastal Operational Storm Surges/Tide
Forecasting System in Korea

(b) Typhoon Kalmaegi

Fig. 6 Variations of bias and RMSE between modeled and observed storm surges caused by typhoons in (a) Typhoon Usagi
and (b) Kalmaegi.

typhoons at the following 30 tidal stations: Incheon
(INCH), Pyeongtaek (PYOY), Daesan (DAES),
Anheung (ANHG), Boryeong (BORG), Janghang
(JANH), Gunsan-out (KSOT), Wido (WIDO),
Yeonggwang (YONG), Mokpo (MOKP),
Daeheuksan-do (DAEH), Jindo (JIND), Chuja-do
(CHUJ), Wando (WAND), Geomun-do (KOMU),
Goheung (GOHG), Yeosu (YOSU), Tongyeong
(TONY), Masan (MASN), Busan (BUSN), Jeju (JEJU),
Mosulpo (MOSL), Seogwipo (SOGW), Seongsanpo
(SEOS), Ulsan (ULSN), Pohang (POHA), Hupo
(HUPO), Mukho (MUKH), Sokcho (SOKC), and
Ulleung-do (ULEU). The paper computed the bias
(mean error) and RMSE between the modeled and
observed results for the two typhoon periods.
Insufficient observational data or abnormal data caused
by observational error were excluded manually.
For Typhoon Usagi, there was little difference in
bias and RMSE value among stations. The minimum
bias and RMSE were 3.04 and 8.37 cm when CTSM
simulated by KWRF. The difference of sea level
between model and observation for Typhoon Kalmaegi
is larger than that of Typhoon Usagi. Also the CTSM
case by KWRF show smallest bias and RMSE with
4.61 and 7.52 cm, respectively. In conclusion, the
coastal storm surges/tide models, CTSM, using input
from KWRF simulate very well the storm surges/tide
pattern in the complex coastal areas. The result showed
that the storm surges by the coastal storm surges/tide
model with high resolution input was in well agreement
with the observed sea level occurred by high tide and
storm surges in the coastal areas.
4. Conclusions
The coastal areas around Korean peninsula are one
of the challenging places in ocean modeling for
reasonable prediction of near shore storm surges/tide
conditions. Establishing of newly devised ocean
prediction system of KMA is underway in conjunction
with high computing environment. The development of
high resolution model is very essential to predict the
storm surges patterns in the complex coastal area of
Korea. The main objective of this study is to develop
and apply the high resolution regional and coastal
storm surges/tide operational prediction system in
Korea. Sea surface wind and mean sea level pressure
from the RDAPS and KWRF are used for forcing input
of storm surges/tide model. Both the RDAPS and
KWRF are the operational weather forecasting system
in KMA. The horizontal resolutions of RDAPS and
KWRF are 30 and 10 km, respectively. The storm
surges/tide were hindcasted using sea wind and
pressure fields of Typhoon which is approaching
Korean Peninsula. In conclusion, the coastal storm
surges/tide models, CTSM, using input from KWRF
simulate very well the storm surges/tide pattern in the
complex coastal areas. The result showed that the
storm surges by the coastal storm surges/tide model
 High Resolution Regional and Coastal Operational Storm Surges/Tide
Forecasting System in Korea
with high resolution input was in well agreement with
the observed sea level occurred by high tide and storm
surges in the coastal areas. The higher resolution input
data should enhance the accuracy of storm surge
predictions. In addition, a more advanced model is
needed to produce high-resolution predictions of storm
surges along the complex coastline of Korea.
Acknowledgments
This research was carried out as a part of the
“Valuation of Precision Improvement of Surge
Prediction System” and “Research for the
Meteorological Observation Technology and Its
Application” research supported by NIMR/KMA.
References
[1] G.L. Mellor, Users guide for a three dimensional
primitive equation, numerical model, Program in
335
Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University,
Princeton, NJ, 1998, p. 41.
[2] K. Matsumoto, T. Takanezawa, M. Ooe, Ocean tide
models developed by assimilating TOPEX/POSEIDON
altimetry data into hydrodynamic model: A global model
and a regional model around Japan, J. of Oceanogr. 56
(2000) 567-581.
[3] S.H. You, J.W. Seo, Numerical study of storm surges and
tide around Korea using operational ocean model, Marine
Geodesy 32 (2009) 243-263.
[4] S.H. You, Predicting Storm surges using operational
ocean forecast system, Terrestrial, Atmospheric and
Oceanic Sciences 21 (2010) 99-111.
[5] J.H. Kwun, S.H. You, Numerical study of sea winds
simulated by the high-resolution weather research and
forecasting (WRF) model, Asia-Pacific Journal of
Atmospheric Sciences 45 (2009) 523-554.
[6] S.H. You, J.H. Kwun, Analysis of precision for mean sea
level pressure simulated by high resolution weather
model for Typhoon Manyi and Usagi in 2007, J. of the
Kor. Soc. for Mar. Env. Eng. 13 (2010) 127-134. (in
Korean with English abstract)
Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering B 1 (2012) 336-343
Formerly part of Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, ISSN 1934-8932
D DAVID PUBLISHING

DiagData: A Tool for Generation of Fuzzy Inference

System

Silvia Maria Fonseca Silveira Massruhá, Raphael Fuini Riccioti, Helano Povoas Lima and Carlos Alberto Alves
Meira
Laboratory of Computational Intelligence, Embrapa Agricultural Informatics, São Paulo State 13083-886, Brazil

Received: May 6, 2011 / Accepted: September 15, 2011 / Published: March 20, 2012.

Abstract: In this paper, it described the architecture of a tool called DiagData. This tool aims to use a large amount of data and
information in the field of plant disease diagnostic to generate a disease predictive system. In this approach, techniques of data mining
are used to extract knowledge from existing data. The data is extracted in the form of rules that are used in the development of a
predictive intelligent system. Currently, the specification of these rules is built by an expert or data mining. When data mining on a
large database is used, the number of generated rules is very complex too. The main goal of this work is minimize the rule generation
time. The proposed tool, called DiagData, extracts knowledge automatically or semi-automatically from a database and uses it to build
an intelligent system for disease prediction. In this work, the decision tree learning algorithm was used to generate the rules. A toolbox
called Fuzzygen was used to generate a prediction system from rules generated by decision tree algorithm. The language used to
implement this software was Java. The DiagData has been used in diseases prediction and diagnosis systems and in the validation of
economic and environmental indicators in agricultural production systems. The validation process involved measurements and
comparisons of the time spent to enter the rules by an expert with the time used to insert the same rules with the proposed tool. Thus, the
tool was successfully validated, providing a reduction of time.

Key words: Prediction modelling, data mining, decision tree, machine learning, fuzzy inference system, fuzzygen.

1. Introduction analysis supported by computer, allowing the

self-extracting (or semi-automatic) of new knowledge
Nowadays, the phytopathologies have generated a
from a large data repository. This field of research is
large amount of data and information in the field of the
called KDD (knowledge discovery from database) and
plant disease diagnosis and control resulting from their
DM (data mining). This process of extracting
experiments and publications. The challenge in this
knowledge of the database is aimed at finding
work is to use these data and information to extract
knowledge from one set of data to be used in
knowledge so that it can predict the onset of a disease
decision-making. This area of research is
and prevent its spread. The traditional methods of data
multidisciplinary and incorporates techniques used in
analysis usually perform queries using SQL (structured
various areas such as database, artificial intelligence
query language), OLAP (on-line analytical processing)
and statistics. The techniques used in MD should not be
tools and data visualization tools. However, the tools
viewed as a substitute for other forms of data analysis,
often fail to answer more complex questions involving
but rather as complementary tools to improve the
all possible relationships and associations that exist in a
results of the explorations made [1].
large amount of data.
Embrapa has generated a large amount of data about
Therefore, it is necessary to use techniques of data
plant diseases. For instance, there are many books,

Corresponding author: Silvia Maria Fonseca Silveira papers and reports published for diagnosis and control
Massruhá, scientific researcher, Ph.D., main research fields: of plant diseases. These texts were written by experts in
artificial intelligence, fuzzy logic, machine-learning, expert
systems, diagnostic systems. E-mail: silvia@cnptia.embrapa.br. phytopathology to be used by farmers or extension
 DiagData: A Tool for Generation of Fuzzy Inference System
technicians for diagnosis of plant diseases. However, if
the information is not available at hand farmers can use
wrong dosages or chemical products to fight a disease
and that may put in risk consumers’ health and cause
damages to the ecosystem. In this case, diagnostic
expert systems can be an alternative tool to help the
experts in decision-making concerning the
identification of diseases and control methods [2].
The reliability of a diagnostic expert system depends
on the quantity and quality of knowledge that it handles,
i.e., the number of diseases it can diagnose and the
appropriate knowledge representation constructed by
the domain expert. This can be achieved by the
knowledge engineer with a knowledge acquisition
procedure. However, the knowledge acquisition
process is the bottleneck in the development of any
expert system [2].
In the diagnosis domain, the task performed by the
expert can be thought of as a classification process, in
which diseases are assigned to classes or categories
determined by their properties. In a classification
model, the connection between classes and properties
can either be defined by something simple, such as a
flowchart, or complex such as the executable models
represented by computer programs. In the latter, the
classification models can be built in two ways: (a) by
interviewing the relevant experts of the domain; and (b)
by constructing inductively, through the generalization
from specific examples contained in numerous
recorded classifications.
The first approach was adopted in the development
of a preliminary version of an expert system for
diagnosis of corn diseases on the web [3]. In that
system, decision trees were generated from the
interviews with domain experts and resources from the
literature in the corn diseases area. After doing so, an
expert system was built whose inference flows from the
consequences (symptoms) to the causes (diseases) [2].
In this paper, it shows how the second approach
(data mining techniques) can be used during the
acquisition process. To do so, it developed a tool to
337
extract knowledge from structured data. This tool,
called DiagData, aims to help the process of extraction
of information from database by identifying groups of
similar data in such a way that rules can be inducted
and an inference system generated.
The paper is organized as follows. Section 2
describes some concepts of the data mining and
uncertain reasoning in an integrated approach. Section
3 presents the DiagData architecture. Finally, Section 4
brings the results obtained so far as well as future work
in our research project.
2. Methods and Data
The data mining can be summarized as the nontrivial
extraction of the implicit, previously unknown,
interesting, and potentially useful information (usually
in the form of knowledge patterns or models) from data.
The extracted knowledge is used to describe the hidden
regularity of data, to make prediction, or to aid human
users in other ways. The popularity of data mining is
due to demands from various real-world applications in
decision-making. An important aspect for scalable data
mining is through efficient algorithms. The machine
learning refers artificial inteligence tasks with
improved performance and these techniques can be
used in data mining tasks.
Machine learning algorithms [4] have proved to be
of great pratical value in a variety of application
domains. There are especially useful in data mining
problems where large databases may contain valuable
implicit regularities that can be discovered
automatically (e.g., to analyse outcomes of medical
treatments from patient databases or to learn general
rules for credit worthiness from finacinal databases).
A well-known tree induction algorithm adopted
from machine learning is ID3 or C4.5, proposed by
Quinlan [5, 6], which employs a process of
constructing a decision tree in a top-down approach.
According to Chen [7], a decision tree is a
hierarchical representation that can be used to
determine the classification of an object by testing its
338 DiagData: A Tool for Generation of Fuzzy Inference System
values for certain properties. In a decision tree, a leaf
node denotes a decision (or classification) while a
non-leaf node dontes a property used for decision
(color, size, etc.). It is preferred the shortest path to
reach leaf, because it implies the fewest possible
number of questions are needed. The examples are
used to guide the construction of a decision tree. The
main algorithm is a recursive process. At each stage of
this process, it selected a property based on the
information gain calculated from the training examples.
In addition, rule induction can be used in conjunction
with tree induction. The rule induction can be served as
a post processing of tree induction using ID3 or C4.5.
In general, a rule can be constructed by following a
particular path from root to a leaf in the decision tree,
with the variabels and their values involved in all the
non-leaf nodes as the condition, and the classification
variable as the consequence.
Decision trees have been widely used in data mining
tasks. They also have been presented as a good tool to
study the epidemiology of plant diseases such as
described in Ref. [8].
The data mining tasks can be completed by uncertain
reasoning techniques, such as fuzzy logic, bayesian
networks, neural networks. Whereas probability theory
is aimed at coping with randomness in reasoning, fuzzy
Fig. 1 The DiagData architecture.
logic deals with a different kind of uncertainty, namely,
vagueness. Fuzzy logic, first developed by Zadeh [9],
provides an approximate but effective means of
describing the behavior of systems that are too complex,
ill-defined, or not easily analyzed mathematically.
Fuzzy logic is an extension of the boolean logic for
handling uncertain and imprecise knowledge. Fuzzy
logic uses fuzzy set theory in which a variale is a
member of one or more sets, with a specified degree of
membership in a range, expressed mathematically as
the interval [10]. Fuzzy variables are processed using a
system called fuzzy inference system. It envolves
fuzzification, fuzzy inference and defuzzification. The
fuzzificatin process converts a crips input value to a
fuzzy value. The fuzzy inference is responsible for
drawing conclusions from the knowledge base. The
defuzzification process converts the fuzzy control
actions into a crisp control action. Then, fuzzy systems
can provide crisp, exact control actions. A technique
used in defuzzification is the centroid method.
In the proposed approach, it developed a tool called
DiagData where the inputs are databases. Techniques
of data mining such as decision tree are used to
extract rules from databases. Then the rules are used
to generate a fuzzy inference system in the web
(Fig. 1).
 DiagData: A Tool for Generation of Fuzzy Inference System
The DiagData tool was developed in Java Standard
Edition (JAVA SE). DiagData has 3 main modules: the
decision tree builder, the fuzzy translator and the fuzzy
inference system generator.
The inputs of this tool are two files, a training file
and other testing file and the output is a fuzzy inference
system. The training and testing files are inputs of the
decision tree builder. In the implementation of this
module, it was used the J48 algorithm of the software
WEKA. The J48 implements the C4.5 algorithm
proposed by Quinlan [6]. The rules generated by this
module can be completed to generate the fuzzy system.
The user can visualize the rules, confusion matrix, the
training and testing files in the format .TXT. The rules
can be visualized in the graphic format as hiperbolic
tree. Afterwards, a FCL(fuzzy control language) file
can be used for inference. The user can access the fuzzy
variables and the results of the fuzzy inference engine.
In the implementation of the fuzzy inference system
generator used the FuzzyGen tool [10]. In the
development of this tool, it used the API jFuzzyLogic
[11] and in the Java SE platform for desktop. The
Fig. 2 The first form of DiagData.
339
FuzzyGen generates a FIS (fuzzy inference system) in
the FCL format (fuzzy control language) aiming the
data interoperability [12].
3. Results
As Fig. 2 shows, the DiagData can be divided into
four main stages: knowledge extracting, fuzzy
modeling, inference engine and graphic results.
In the first phase, the training and testing files are
inputs of this tool. The rules are generated from these
files. It is not necessary the testing file, the rules can be
generated from training file only.
The training and testing files in the .arff format are
uploaded when the “Open” button is clicked in training
and testing area, respectively. When the “rules
extracting” button is clicked, the system runs the J48
using the two files, training and testing. This algorithm
generates the rules and confusion matrix that are saved
in the two files called “regras.txt” and
“confusion_matrix.txt”, respectively. In this phase, the
training and testing files are saved in the “train. txt”
and “test.txt”. The user can visualize all files in the
340 DiagData: A Tool for Generation of Fuzzy Inference System
format.TXT (Fig. 2). The rules can also be visualized in
the graphic format as hiperbolic tree (Fig. 3). In the
second phase, the fuzzy modelling is created from rules
generated when pressing the button “Loading variables
and rules”. The name of the model, the input and output
variables and the rules are generated from the model as
shown in Fig. 4.
In the “inference engine” phase, the system will try
to infer the result. The user will have to choose a model
generated in the previous step, by clicking the button
“...”. This file is in the FCL format, as shown in Fig. 5.
By clicking the “Upload” button, the user upload the
entire contents of the file in the system and in the table
“Upload the values of input variables ...”, will appear
the input variables listed in the file that is uploaded.
Fig. 3 The tree generated from rules.
The user must enter the values of variables in the
“Value” of the table “Upload the values of input
variables ...”, as shown in Fig. 6.
Finished entering the values for the variables and
clicking on “Inferring results” will be presented in the
form at the “Results ...”, as shown in Fig. 7, the
contents of each variable, their fuzzy values, the rules
and their weights. In this phase, the system infers the
outcome based on the rules generated by the step to
knowledge extracting. To assign values to which they
want to input variables, using fuzzy logic system will
infer a result. These results—the fuzzy ranges of the
input and output variables and the generated results,
can be viewed in Fig. 7, which presents in graphical
format.
 DiagData: A Tool for Generation of Fuzzy Inference System 341

Fig. 4 Modelling phase.

Fig. 5 FCL file.

342 DiagData: A Tool for Generation of Fuzzy Inference System

Fig. 6 The inference engine form.

Fig. 7 The results showed in the graphic format.

 DiagData: A Tool for Generation of Fuzzy Inference System
4. Conclusion
This paper presented an evaluation of the use of the
DiagData to extract information from structured
information using data mining techniques. Tests
carried out with corn diseases showed very good results
comparing the decision tree constructed by the expert,
which is based on grouping of symptoms, with the
similarity among tree nodes calculated from the
DiagData tool. However, the DiagData tool generates a
large amount of rules from model. Then, it is necessary
for the expert to select the main rules. This process of
selection is semi-automatic because the expert has to
validate these rules. After, the user has to enter the
fuzzy values of the variables of selected rules. In real
applications, there is very often no sharp boundary
between variable ranges so that fuzzy variables is often
better suited for the data. Membership degrees between
zero and one are used in fuzzy variables instead of crisp
assignments of the data. The DiagData allows user
validate the selected rules because it generates
automatically the fuzzy inference system. Thus, the
user can refine the rules and generate the system again
and quickly to correct it. Note that the DiagData is a
tool to help the experts build the expert system but it
doesn’t eliminate them. The DiagData has also been
used in the validation of economic and environmental
indicators in agricultural production systems. In future
work, it is intended to validate the DiagData with large
databases to verify whether the results can be
improved.
Although the initial validation is on agriculture,
DiagData can be used in several domains, since it was
developed to be independent of language and subject.
343
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May, 2, 2011)
Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering B 1 (2012) 344-349
Formerly part of Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, ISSN 1934-8932
D DAVID PUBLISHING

The Discount Rate in Terms of Evaluating Investments

in Rangelands: The Case Study of Greece

Melina A. Kourantidou and Athanasios S. Christodoulou

Laboratory of Forest Economics, Faculty of Forestry and Natural Environment, Thessaloniki 54124, Greece

Received: August 20, 2011 / Accepted: September 29, 2011 / Published: March 20, 2012.

Abstract: This paper aims at analyzing and evaluating investments in rangeland management through the use of the discount rate tool.
The most important parameter which is considered when estimating the discount rate is the lifetime of the investment, which varies
depending on the kind of the intervention. An undeniable characteristic of rangelands is their rich biodiversity. However, the fact that
not all the flora and fauna has been recorded yet, suggests the need for using the lowest possible discount rate (but not zero), giving thus
a high value on the benefits that will arise for future generations always in the light of sustainable development. At the same time, a
sensitivity analysis has to be performed in order to determine the upper and lower limit of return on investment, so that the
decision-maker in charge can be more flexible on the evaluation of an investment proposal.

Key words: Discount rate, rangeland, sustainable management.

1. Introduction protection of human life etc.). This in turn can vary

from a low price (0.1%) attributing in this way higher
Choosing a DR (discount rate) for means of using it
importance to the future generations, to a high price
in a CBA (Cost-Benefit Analysis) is definitely a crucial
(6%) which reflects the market rules [1].
decision especially for analysis of long-term social
According to experimental evidence, people
projects, and more specifically for those related to the
attribute higher value to direct or short-term resources
environment, including all kinds of ecosystems. This is
in comparison to those acquired in the distant future.
because the DR is included in all mathematical
As a result, the basic term of “time preference” enters
expressions that are used in a CBA. Discounting is in
into the analysis and has the role of reflecting the extent
fact a tool that compares costs and benefits that belong
to which people prefer present rather than future
to different time periods. This comparison seems to be
consumption [2].
unavoidable due to the fact that the consumption of
The main objective of this research paper is to
goods and services today represents higher value rather
present the real dimension and usefulness of the DR
than consumption taking place later in the future, and
tool in terms of its implementation in investment
thus this is indicative of human preference for present.
evaluation of rangeland ecosystems. This is achieved
The predicted value of the goods and services produced
through an analysis of the most important factors that
in the future should be discounted so that the authors
affect it, while at the same time a range of values is
can get the equivalent present value. In practice,
being proposed for the case of Greek rangelands.
selecting a DR includes an intense ethical dimension,
the extent of which varies depending on the field of 2. Materials and Methods
application (evaluation of climate change impacts,
In terms of this research, Greek and international
Corresponding author: Melina A. Kourantidou, master, literature has been taken into account as well as
main research field: environmental economics. E-mail: conclusions of Greek and international scientific
meliorak@gmail.com.
 The Discount Rate in Terms of Evaluating Investments in Rangelands: The Case Study of Greece
conferences and meetings. The research analysis was
based on both Greek and foreign rangeland
ecosystems, while at the same time it is also making
an effort in order to determine the way and the reasons
for the related economic valuation standards which
should be reconsidered.
3. Results and Discussion
3.1 Cost Benefit Analysis and Net Present Value
The DR is used for evaluating future costs and future
benefits, by means of attributing to those a particular
present value [3]. Furthermore, it is very common
practice to estimate the corresponding benefit-cost
ratio. For example, if using a standard DR, the present
value of all the discounted future revenues of an
improvement plan in rangelands is equal to 30 mil. €
and the equivalent discounted present value of the cost
of the project is equal to 20 mil. €, the benefit/cost ratio
will be 1.5 (30 € mil/20 € mil) and the net profit will be
10 € mil. Any positive NPV (net present value) and
benefit-cost ratio that is greater than 1 represents
positive economic results for society and thus
acceptance of the project.
The present value of a future benefit or cost is
mathematically calculated through the following
equation:
PV = FV/(1+i )n (1)
PV: present value of the benefit or the cost;
FV: future value of the benefit or the cost;
i: discount rate;
n: number of periods among the present and the
moment the benefit or the cost takes place.
A CBA, regarding the case of rangelands, requires
economic valuation of the (a) direct positive and
negative effects (e.g. increase of revenues,
employment, biodiversity, ecotourism, reduction of
grassland area due to the constructive projects etc.); (b)
indirect positive and negative effects (e.g. pasture
ecosystem stability, aesthetic enhancement etc.); (c)
cost of the investment (improvement costs,
infrastructure costs, manpower costs etc.) [4].
345
Regarding the thread of degradation in rangelands
which is a common phenomenon one could list as
major causes the following: their displacement to
marginal environments due to the pressure for
acquisition of agricultural land, the intense expansion
of shrubland against grassland because of the gradual
abandonment of extensive goat breeding, the
abandonment of animal husbandry which leads to
homogenization and downgrading of the floristic
diversity, the flora degradation because of invading
alien species, the fires that destroy annually large
rangeland areas and that often lead to uncontrolled
building construction, and lastly the damage done to
grassland biotic factors by important pathogenic
factors (fungi etc.). The convergence of all the above
destructive activities threatens the biodiversity and the
ecological balance of the ecosystem itself or possibly
of adjacent ecosystems as well. This has to be taken
seriously into account in a CBA, through the use of the
appropriate DR, as cited below.
3.2 Social Time Preference
According to the interterm poral principles of
equality, the importance paid to the interest of an
individual that will live in the future has to be the same
with the corresponding of an individual living in the
present. Consequently, the authors need to take
seriously into account the concept of intergenerational
equity, which refers to the extent that the current
generation has to consider the interests of future
generations. This is what actually creates the need for
choosing the corresponding social DR [5].
TP (time preference) is the extent to which people
prefer present instead of future consumption. In other
words if for an individual, the percentage of TP is
greater than the offered lending rate (meaning that he
shows greater interest for consumption today rather
than in the future-positive TP), then he will spend the
money today and won’t invest them with the offered
rate. If on the contrary, the percentage of TP is lower
than the offered rate (meaning that he shows small
346 The Discount Rate in Terms of Evaluating Investments in Rangelands: The Case Study of Greece
interest for consuming in comparison to the
future-negative TP) then he will borrow the money
using this particular rate. That means that those who
save money have lower percentage of TP than the
offered rate and thus they lend their money. At this
point emphasis has to be put on the fact that the
percentage of TP cannot be quantified precisely
(although for means of estimating it, there is a
respective mathematical expression). Most of the times
it is just implied through the specific choices of
consumers and afterwards it is used as DR [6].
Generally speaking, both the consumers, through a
positive time preference (they prefer benefits now
rather than later) and the producers, through the
opportunity cost of capital, perceive the “negotiation”
of the future as less important than the present one [7].
A typical example that proves today’s interest for
future generations, as far as rangelands are concerned,
is the preservation of biodiversity. Rangelands may be
used for producing forage but at the same time they
need to be able to be used as habitats for wildlife as
well as to be in such a condition that it can be possible
for the entire flora to be recorded. This is because the
above dynamic equilibrium is always correlated
positively to the biodiversity [8].
3.3 Disparities in the Determination of the Discount
Rate
Time preference has proved to be a very interesting
issue for economists, but in fact the importance
attached to it depends on the level of the DR. The key
question that remains unanswered is how much
emphasis has to be put on future costs and benefits
comparatively with those today. At this point there are
many different shades of opinion, which lead to
Table 1 Examples of social discount rate estimates.
Researchers
Nordhaus (2007)
Stern (2007)
Garnaut (2008)
Arrow et al. (2004)
Weitzman (2007)
Source: Ref. [10].
significant discrepancies in determining the DR.
In practice, policy makers require a realistic
benchmark for the analysis of various policies and thus
the opportunity cost of capital is often used as a
substitute of the DR. For instance, in the “Australian
Government Best Practice Regulation Handbook” it is
clearly stated that “the preferred approach is to base the
discount rate on market-determined interest rates
which indicate the value to the current population of
future net benefits” [9, 10].
Tables 1 and 2 presented a live evidence of the
disparity of social DRs applied in policy analysis.
Particularly, Table 1 includes data that are applied in
analysis or that are proposed in the literature by
prominent researchers, while Table 2 includes various
DRs that different government agencies use for
evaluating projects.
3.4 The Application of Discount Rate in Rangelands
Around late 1970s the public authorities that were
responsible for land management had to encounter the
crucial issue of maximizing their total contribution to
the national welfare [11]. The professions that were
closer linked to the public management of land, such as
foresters, rangeland scientists, biologists and so forth,
aimed mainly at maximising the long-run timber
outputs, the forage produced in rangelands, hunting etc..
On the contrary, economists are the ones who possess
the knowledge and the necessary “tools” so as to turn
the attention to achieving the maximum social welfare
and not just net income [11].
One of the applications of DR in evaluating
investments in rangeland ecosystems is the one of
range improvements. Since one of the most important
factors that determine the DR is the effective time
Social discount rate
5.5%
1.4%
1.35% and 2.65%
3%-6%
6%
 The Discount Rate in Terms of Evaluating Investments in Rangelands: The Case Study of Greece 347

Table 2 DR used in different government agencies.

American government agencies and organisations Discount rate
Office of Management and Budget 10%
Bureau of Land Management 10%
US Fish and Wildlife Service 7.8% (nominal rate)
US Forest Service 4%
Congressional Budget Office 2%
Government Accounting Office the average cost of Treasury debt
Municipal Government 3%
Other non American governments
English government (0-30 years) 3.5%
Dutch agencies 8% (nominal rate)
Source: Ref. [12].

utilization of the rangeland, it is advisable for a
researcher to take into account the time horizon of the
improvement (fertilization, range seeding etc.) as well
as of the necessary constructive projects. Taking into
account the payback period of each individual project
of range improvements [13] as well as international
practice [14] the authors propose the use of the DR as
shown in Table 3.
The correspondence among the duration of each
project and the DR is based upon the following
proposition: 0-30 years DR 3.5%, 31-75 years DR
3.0%, 76-125 years DR 2.5%, 125-200 years DR 2.0%,
201-300 years DR 1.5%, more than 301 years DR 1.0%
[14].
Since choosing the appropriate DR seems eventually
to be a rather “political choice” it is suggested in terms
of every evaluation that the researcher should conduct a
“sensitivity analysis” using prices lower and higher
than the chosen one. In this way the researcher is not
restricted to a particular price of the present value but
ends up in a range of prices, which makes more flexible
the decision maker [4, 15]. The above choice of the
suitable DR takes place on the grounds that the project
is assessed from a forest-economic-environmental
perspective. However, it must not escape our attention
the fact that in many cases this assessment has to take
place in terms of both purely development and purely
individual economic perspective. Namely, the average
rate of bond loans is suitable under a development
perspective. While under a strictly economic
perspective, the average commercial rate (average rate
of the capital financing private investments) is
suggested. Obviously the use of the average
commercial rate, which is of course higher, leads to
smaller NPVs.
It is common for researchers in terms of international
literature, to use dynamic stochastic and multilevel
models in order to determine the optimal dynamic
decisions in various rangeland species, including those
that influence the conservation of soil and productivity
[15, 17-22]. The most crucial issue is actually the
optimal decision to maximize the future net returns
of each project. Some typical cases could be grazing
and hay harvesting. As it is known, the plants during

Table 3 Suggested step schedule of discount rate in rangelands improvements in Greece.

Time duration Discount rate
Fertilization (one-year) 1-2 3.5
Range seeding (perennial) up to 10 3.5
Game refuge 10 3.5
Dirty roads 20 3.5
Wooden bridges 20 3.5
Rancher shelter 25 3.5
Water troughs 40 3
Standard buildings 80 2.5
Source: Ref. [16].
348 The Discount Rate in Terms of Evaluating Investments in Rangelands: The Case Study of Greece
their growth are often affected by noxious species and
diseases or they have to face competition from various
weeds. The yield per hectare at the moment t is
influenced by the extent of infestation of the grassland
species at the moment t (Xt).
For the special case of rangelands being damaged by
diseases and weeds, which seems to be rather common,
the following mathematical expression is proposed for
calculating their revenue which constitutes the
so-called utility function of the investor [23]:
T 1
Rt ( X t , u t ) + S  X T 

t 0 (1  i ) t (1  i ) t
(2)
where:
T: the time duration of the investment;
i: discount rate;
Χt: damaged rangeland area at the specific moment t;
Rt (Xt, ut): net revenues;
ut: chosen control technology;
S(XT): value of rangeland area when the time is equal
to T.
The level of the used DR depends on the time
horizon of the damage to the rangelands as well as on
the proposed prices on Table 3.
3.5 Low or Zero Discount Rate
The optimal economic policies for issues arising
during rangeland management should always take
place according to a stochastic optimal control
framework. A large number of optimization policies
include either long term breeding or destocking. It has
been observed that policies involving seasonal grazing
or variable grazing rates were not economically viable
for a given level of cost. Nevertheless, land that is
severely degraded cannot be regenerated neither with
direct optimal management of rangelands nor with
complete elimination of grazing. The discounting of
future returns leads to more efficient grazing policies
during its operation but reduces at the same time
opportunities for regeneration of degraded land.
Consequently, grazing in terms of this criterion is not
ecologically sustainable although it is economically
viable [19].
It is common knowledge that the policy applied by
credit institutions nowadays creates liquidity problems
and concession of loans with high interest rates. The
above phenomenon causes intense problems in the
field of exploitation of various ecosystems, including
rangelands. An often result is indifference for the
development of entrepreneurship in rangeland
ecosystems and reduced interest for their improvement,
which both lead to crucial consequences for future
generations [24].
There is no doubt that a low DR brings advantages to
a long-term improvement program in a rangeland area
in contrast to short-term investments of that type [25].
This is why it is argued that the DR should be reduced
so that it can reflect the intergenerational sense of
justice in environmental matters. Within this
framework, the use of even zero DR has been
supported by several researchers [26]. Those who
support this concept claim that the use of zero DR
prevents future environmental damages that would
otherwise be downgraded or silently ignored (e.g.
burial of nuclear waste). Nevertheless a low or zero DR
can also encourage overinvesting and overproducing
beyond the capacity of natural resources, and so it turns
rather possible that it will not be environmentally
acceptable [26, 27]. The use of DR = 0 is thus not
recommended.
4. Conclusions
The DR is not something that can be determined
with absolute accuracy, but is something that is
ultimately selected by the responsible decision makers
on the basis of their views and their philosophy for
justice among the present and future generations. The
DR in terms of social project appraisal is eventually a
political choice.
While evaluating various environmental projects, it
is essential to use low DR that preserves biodiversity
and generally protects all the precious natural resources
and hence rangeland ecosystems.
 The Discount Rate in Terms of Evaluating Investments in Rangelands: The Case Study of Greece
For each rangeland improvement project, it is
necessary for the decision maker to select the proper
DR that will be a function of the social criterions, the
economic viability of the ecosystem and the effective
time utilization of the project. The longer this time
period take, the shorter should be the level of the DR.
The use of DR = 0 needs to be avoided because it can
lead to degradation or collapse of the ecosystem.
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[4] A. Christodoulou, Economic analysis and efficiency
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[5] U. Sumaila, C. Walters, Intergenerational discounting: A
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[6] C. Price, The Theory and Application of Forest Economics,
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[7] H. Kohyama, Selecting discount rates for budgetary
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[8] P.D. Platis, T.G. Papachristou, Rangeland and
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[13] A. Christodoulou, N. Stamou, Forest Economic Exercises
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[15] M. Κobayashi, R. Howitt, L. Jarvis, E. Laca, Stochastic
rangeland use under capital constraints, Amer. J. Agr.
Econ. 89 (2007) 805-817.
[16] M.A. Kourantidou, A.S. Christodoulou, The discounting
rate in terms of evaluating investments in rangeland
ecosystems, in: Proceedings of the 7th Panhellenic
Rangeland Congress, Xanthi, Greece, 2010, pp. 261-266.
[17] M.A. Janssen, B.H. Walker, J. Langridge, N. Abel, An
adaptive agent model for analysing co-evolution of
management and policies in a complex rangeland system,
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[18] M. Quaas, S. Baumgärtner, C. Becker, K. Frank, B. Müller,
Uncertainty and sustainability in the management of
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Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering B 1 (2012) 350-353
Formerly part of Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, ISSN 1934-8932
D DAVID PUBLISHING

Native Trees Forage Alternative Protein Feed for Cattle

in Tropical “Mexico”

Amalia Cabrera-Núñez, Pablo Elorza-Martínez, Arturo Serrano, Iliana Del Carmen Daniel Renteria and Miguel
Angel Lammoglia Villagómez
School of Biological and Agricultural Science, Universidad Veracruzana, Veracruz 92850, Mexico

Received: August 2, 2011 / Accepted: October 17, 2011 / Published: March 20, 2012.

Abstract: The objective of this study was to find highly nutritious native plants to feed cattle in northern Veracruz (Mexico) as an
alternative to avoid deforestation for pasture establishment. Six fodder tree species (Leucaena, Leucaenaleucocephala, Morera,
Morus alba, Chacloco, rubiHamelia patents, Guácima, Guasumaulmifolia, Pichoco-bunting, Erythrinaamericana, Cocuite,
Gliricidiasepium) were selected for their leave production, rapid growth and high nutritional quality. The plants were evaluated in the
bud stage of senescence and flowering, restricting the fraction of mature foliage in the samples located under 2 meters height.
Samples were collected from five plants per specie that were randomly selected. The nutritious parameters were evaluated through
proximate analysis with the Van Soest technique. This study used a completely randomized design with five replicates. The nutritious
composition showed PC (protein content) differences (P < 0.05) among species indicating that Leucaenaleucocephala (20%) had the
lowest, Gliricidiasepium was (21%) intermediate and Morus alba (23%) had the highest. The FDN (neutral detergent fiber) and FDA
(acid detergent) were lowest for Guasumaulmifolia (23.4%) and the other five species exceeded 40%. In conclusion, native foliage of
fodder trees in northern, Veracruz are highly nutritious for cattle feeding and could alternative to avoid deforestation for pasture
establishment to continue.

Key words: Fodder trees, nutritional value, cattle, deforestation.

1. Introduction Mexico [1].

A key resource to achieve this is the native
Livestock production systems as milk, meat and
herbaceous and woody plant species that have the
dual purpose are important for the State of Veracruz
potential to grow in profoundly affected areas and,
due to the supply of goods for human consumption
over time, allow the recovery of soil fertility and the
(mainly meat and milk), employment, and
ecosystems. Very few ecosystems are still intact in
contributions to the economy of Mexico. However,
some areas [2].
animal production based on cattle has been under
In order to classify a tree or shrub as feed, it must
heavy criticism from the environmental point of view,
meet nutritional advantages in terms of agricultural
given its association with ecosystem degradation
production and versatility on other forages used
caused by deforestation for pasture establishment. As
traditionally. In this sense the requirements for this
a result, there is a need to develop technologies that
qualification are: (I) their consumption by animals is
are environmentally sustainable and economically
appropriate to expect changes in response parameters;
competitive and attractive to the producers, to prevent
(II) the nutrient content will appeal to animal
the rapid pace of deforestation and try to reduce large
production; (III) being tolerant of pruning; and (IV) a
areas of degraded pastures, especially in the tropic s of
vigorous enough regrowth to obtain significant levels
Corresponding author: Pablo Elorza-Martínez, Ph.D., main of production of edible biomass per unit area [3].
research field: sustainable rural development. E-mail: In the development of agroforestry, trees may be
pelorza@uv.mx.
 Native Trees Forage Alternative Protein Feed for Cattle in Tropical “Mexico” 351

associated with agricultural crops and pastures
(agroforestry system) as fodder banks that can be
harvested under cutting or grazing, for animal
supplementing, as live fences to improve soil physical
conditions (porosity and density). The effect of
decompression is positive and significant in degraded
areas due to soil compaction, caused by mechanization
and/or the continuous trampling of livestock. Common
scenarios are the pastures in tropical Mexico [4].
The importance of conservation and wise use of it
involves addressing our energy and creativity to the
search for new alternatives, with the aim of
intensifying tropical livestock while developing
environmentally friendly strategies, where trees play a
role in the integration of attractive options for farmers
[5]. This work mainly aims at knowing the nutrient
content of fodder trees and incorporate native forest
component in traditional farming systems by
increasing the productivity of soil resources.
2. Methodology
The study was conducted in the tropical region of
northern Veracruz, in the municipality of Tuxpan,
geographically located between 20º57'46'' north
latitude and 97°24'01'' west longitude at an altitude of
10 meters. The climate of the experimental area is
characterized by two defined periods: a rainy season
(July to October, with 95% of rainfall) and one dry
season (November-June). The average annual rainfall
is 1,210 mm. The average temperature is 26.0 ºC and
relative humidity is 68.9% during the day.
This work includes the local knowledge of fodder
tree species which indicated the presence of 65 species
used as poles, 80 designated as a hedge, with 72
species used as shade, 21 medicinal and 69 species
used as food for livestock (Table 1). From the species
mentioned above, six were selected for their adequate
production of leaves, rapid growth and high
nutritional quality for livestock. The species selected
were: Leucaena (Leucaenaleucocephala), Morera
(Morus alba), Chaclocorubi (Hamelia patents),
Guácima (Guasumaulmifolia), Pichoco-bunting
(Erythrinaamericana), Cocuite (Gliricidiasepium), all
of which are native of tropical Mexico. The plants
were evaluated in the bud stage of senescence and
flowering, restricting the fraction of mature foliage in
the samples located at a height under 2 meters, and
considering 5 plants per species, randomly selected in
the study area.
The variables assessed by proximate analysis were:
DM (dry matter), CP (crude protein), EE (ether
extract), C (ash), CF (crude fiber), TDN (total
digestible nutrients), and NDF (determining neutral
detergent fiber) and ADF (acid detergent fiber) with
the technique of Van Soest. This study was a
completely randomized design with five replicas.
3. Results and Discussion
Of the identified species (Table 1), the
Guasumaulmifolia is the best known among producers [6]
and the most described in field studies. There are studies
about its chemical characteristics-nutritional fruits and

Table 1 Regional and potential uses of six tree species.

Use L. leucicephala M. alba H. patents G. ulmifolia E. americana m. G. sepium
Shadow X X X X X
Artificial poles X X X
Cattle feed X X X X X
Fodder bank X X X X X
Rural buildings X X
Furniture tools X
Live fence X X X X X
Medicinal X X
Wood X X X
352 Native Trees Forage Alternative Protein Feed for Cattle in Tropical “Mexico”

Table 2 Chemical values of nutritional among different tree species.

Values % L. leucicephala M. alba H. patents G. ulmifolia E. americana m. G. sepium
Dry matter (MS) 43.13 22.93 36.02 36.53 34.23 42.34
Crude protein (PC) 20.04 23.03 18.01 18.33 17.78 21.02
Ether extract (EE) 4.28 4.23 4.09 4.27 3.45 4.19
Ash (C) 6.12 7.23 6.78 6.46 5.34 6.05
Crude fiber (FC) 20.90 23.34 25.89 24.37 21.96 21.45
Total digestible nutrients (TND) 73.61 72.33 73.43 67.76 70.10 72.34
Neutral detergent fiber (FDN) 41.00 41.69 40.23 42.43 41.23 43.30
Acid detergent fiber (FDA) 40.59 42.80 42.12 42.20 23.87 23.87

leaves [7] on morphology and germination [8]. It is
including its foliage in diets of low quality [9], and the
determination of antinutritional factors, in taste tests
of fruits or characteristics agronomic [10].
Most of the species studied showed much higher
PC content than tropical grasses, and in several cases,
higher than commercial concentrates. Likewise, the
MS of some foliage is very high [11]. The results of
compositional analysis of Leucaenaleucocephala
(Table 2) in regard to protein (20.04%) and neutral
detergent fiber (41.0%) coincide with those found by
Ref. [3], as happened with the protein and NDF of
Morus alba. In the first one, Morales [12] reported a
22.93%, a figure or value similar to the one obtained
in this work, which was 23.03%, while Shelton [13]
found that the nutrient content was 25%, this
difference is likely due to the influence of plant age,
leaf position and level of fertilization which can lead
to variability in the analyzed values in the laboratory.
Preston [14] noted that the fattening of cattle in
confinement has achieved average weight gain of 850
g/animal/day, using fodder trees to supplement diets
of intact males (200 to 450 kg live weight and with a
maximum of 24 months old at slaughter). Production
results, obtained by supplementation with fodder trees,
confirm the results published by Leng [15], regarding
that, to achieve high rates of weight gain and milk
production levels from moderate to high,essential
amino acid demand is greater than that which can be
supply by dead microorganisms, which are replaced
continuously and out of the rumen into the abomasum,
even if the ruminal fermentation is optimized.Under
tropical conditions in a module in which cattle are fed
only with Mulberry leaves and grass, average yields
above 4.0 kg/day [16] have been observed during the
peak month of lactation. Comparing Morera foliage
with concentrate as a supplement to cows grazing, it
obtained a similar level of milk production (13.2 and
13.6 kg/an/day, respectively) for each supplement at
the same levels of consumption MS (1.0% of PV) and
superior to the one obtained with only grazing (11.3
kg/day).
4. Conclusion
The research of trees and shrubs has demonstrated
the feasibility of introducing agroforestry as an
alternative approach to develop silvopastoral
production technologies. It involves a considerable
increase in the sustainability and productivity when
using native fodder tree foliage to provide acceptable
nutritional quality food to cattle, and reduce the large
areas of degraded pastures, especially in the Mexican
tropics.
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[1] L. Ramirez-Cancino, L. Ramirez-Aviles, J.C. Ku-Vera,
Effect of incorporating multipurpose-trees (MPTs)
foliage in a basal ration of poor-quality Pennisetum
purpureum hay fed to Pelibuey sheep, J. Appl. Anim. Res.
17 (2) (2000) 239-251.
[2] M. Avila, L.A. Navarro, Improving the small farm
production systems in central America, in: XVIII
International Conference of Economist, Jakarta,
Indonesia, 1982, pp. 78-91.
[3] B.W. Reed, M.J. Semmens, E.L. Cussler, Membrane
contactors, in: R.D. Noble, S.A. Stern (Eds.), Membrane
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[4] M. Rouez, D. Blanc, R. Bayard, R. Gourdon, Evaluation
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fractions of MSW as compared to mixed waste, in: 2nd
International Conference on Engineering for Waste
Valorisation, Patras, Greece, 2008.
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Rivera, et al., Agropastoral systems for soil savannas, in:
Thirteenth Meeting of American Association of Animal
Production (ALPA), Science and Agricultural Research,
Santiago, Chile, 1993, pp. 24-67.
[6] S.E. Purata, R. Greenberg, V. Barrientos, J.
Lopez-Portillo, Economic potential of the huizache,
pennatula acacia (mimosoideae) in central Veracruz,
Mexico, Economic Botany 3 (1999) 15-29.
[7] A. Giraldo, Guacimo potential as forage component,
Potential benefits of native plants in the feeding of
ruminants, in Silvopasture: Alternative to improve the
sustainability and competitiveness of Colombian cattle,
Compilation of reports from two international seminars
on incorporations, CORPOICA, Bogota, Colombia, 1996,
pp. 187-205.
[8] J.C.D. Neto, I.B. Aguiar, Ontogenic development of
guazuma ulmifolia (sterculiaceae) saplings, Rev. Biol.
Trop. 2 (2001) 85-90.
[9] T.H. Stobbs, Factors limiting the nutritional value of
tropical Grazed pastures for beef and milk production,
Biol Trop. 2 (2005) 41-50.
[10] G. Cubillos, P. Valdez, C. Jimenez, Intensive feeding
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systems for livestock grazing, in: The Potential for Beef
Cattle Production in Tropical America, CIAT. Cali,
Colombia, 2004, pp. 67-83.
[11] G. Mendizabal, R. Arias, J.E. Benavides, E. Rios, F.
Marroquin, Using the foliage of wild plants in the feeding
of ruminants in the Western Highlands, Rev. Biol. Trop.
3 (2002) 224-238.
[12] M.A. Morales, Food preferences between two species of
herbivores (cattle and deer), in: Conservation and wildlife
management in Latin America, in: III Symposium
Agriculture, Arequipa, Peru, 2002, pp. 110-116.
[13] H.M. Shelton, J.L. Brewbaker, Leucaena leucocephala
The Most Widely Used forage tree legume, in: Forage
Tree Legumes inTropical Agriculture. Wallingford, UK.
CAB International, 1984, pp. 15-29.
[14] T.R. Preston, R.A. Leng, Adjusting livestock production
systems to available resources: basic and applied aspects
of the new approach to ruminant nutrition in the tropics,
Biol Trop. 2 (2000) 312-316.
[15] R.A. Leng, Metabolic limitations in the use of sugar cane
and its derivatives for growth and milk production in
ruminants, in: Proceedings of the Seminar-Workshop on
Critical Systems for Animal Production and Renewable
Energy with Tropical Resources, Research Centre for
Sustainable Agricultural Production Systems
(CIPAV),Volume 2, 1988, pp. 18-25.
[16] J.M. Medina, B. Rouyer, M. Tejada, M. Layus, B. Boiron,
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Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering B 1 (2012) 354-362
Formerly part of Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, ISSN 1934-8932
D DAVID PUBLISHING

Spatial Landuse and Farming System Analyses of

Reclaimed Tidal Lowland in South Sumatra, Indonesia

Adzemi Mat Arshad1, Mustika Edi Armanto1, 2, Elisa Wildayana2 and Ahmad Syahrial2
1. Faculty of Agro-Technology and Food Science, University Malaysia Terengganu, Kuala Terengganu, Terengganu 21030,
Malaysia
2. Faculty of Agriculture, Sriwijaya University, South Sumatra 30339, Indonesia

Received: September 28, 2011 / Accepted: October 27, 2011 / Published: March 20, 2012.

Abstract: This study aims to analyze spatial landuse and farming system of reclamated tidal lowland in South Sumatra, Indonesia by
using remote sensing technology and GIS in knowing the distribution of landuse change of tidal lowland. From these conditions, it can
see cropping patterns on each of the secondary block and its relation to the condition of the water system network. The study was
carried out in Delta Saleh areas. The used methodology was field survey and remote sensing technique. It was combined with GIS
technology for spatial analysis. Over the last 11 years (1992-2002), a decline in the paddy field area is from 23,619.4 ha to 18,518.40 ha
(27.65%). A decrease of river acreage (water body) occurred from 6,643.53 ha to 6,559.83 ha. In 1992 it has not detected any coconut
plantation, while in 2001 it showed an area of coconut plantation 3,422.84 ha and 3,822.84 ha in 2011. Significant changes are also
presented in primary mangrove forest, widespread declining around 1,940.88 ha (147.20%). Most of the mangrove forest was
converted into secondary mangrove forest and scrub. Linkage with topography type showed that the land with topography Type A was
majority for paddy fields 250.28-262.80 ha (62.72%-65.59%). Mixed crop fields were in second place with acreage of 90.66-107.36 ha
(22.72%-26.80%). The land with topography Type B showed the widest paddy fields (283.14-314.20 ha or 70.70%-78.48%), followed
by upland crops. The land with topography Type C showed that paddy fields were 283.03-300.41 ha (70.66%-75.02 %), followed by
upland crops 94.85-102.78 ha (23.69%-25.66%), and coconut was the smallest 0.09-0.27 ha. Generally, the cropping index was 100 on
PS-1 (planting season 1) for BL-1 (business land 1) and BL-2 planted with paddy fields, while the PS-2 are generally not cultivated
land (fallow).

Key words: Landuse, farming system, analyses, reclamated tidal lowland, South Sumatra, Indonesia.

1. Introduction area of 2.25 ha per household. It consisted of business

land 1 (BL-1, 1 ha), business land 2 (BL-2, 1 ha) and
Swampy land in Indonesia is estimated to 39.4
0.25 ha for garden [1]. After some years occupied,
million ha, comprising 24.7 million ha of tidal lowland
some lands were converted to others purposes, not
and 14.7 million ha of lowland swamp. Around 33.7
cultivated or becoming fallow. It was also built
million ha of swamp land is located in the Islands of
infrastructure to support community activities [2]. For
Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi and Papua. From these
the cultivated land, cropping patterns are generally not
acreages, 9.65 million ha have the potential to become
the same applied in a tertiary plot with other tertiary
agricultural land, but only about 13.5 % of which was
plots. Delta Saleh area was not all used for business,
utilized [1].
but there is a conservation area, green lines, residential
Land clearing of tidal lowland in Delta Saleh was
areas, location of economic activity.
purposed for transmigration program. The tidal
Based on topography (overflow type), the land
lowland was given to the transmigration farmers an
reclamation was done by doing drainage channels
Corresponding author: Adzemi Mat Arshad, senior lecturer, which is likely to change according to environmental
Ph.D., main research fields: expert system, land evaluation, soil
fertility. E-mail: adzemi@umt.edu.my.
conditions. There are no available time series data to
 Spatial Landuse and Farming System Analyses of Reclaimed Tidal Lowland in South Sumatra, Indonesia 355
see a change in landuse patterns, park, conditions of
existing infrastructure, so it often leads to make
mistakes in decision-making development of the tidal
area [3].
Changes in landuse, topography, conditions as well
as cropping patterns in the field can be more easily
interpreted by the help of remote sensing technology
without having to survey the entire region. The
infrastructure and other land conditions can be
recorded through field observations and interviews
with the community [4-6]. Remote sensing technology
in this case using Landsat TM image is able to detect
various types of landuse, vegetation and infrastructure.
With such capabilities, the potential image is used as a
means of identification of landuse, cropping patterns
and hydrotopography of tidal lowland [7].
Problems in the Delta Saleh since reclaimed for
transmigration program till today are follows, changes
in landuse patterns are difficult to be estimated and its
distribution in detail from year to year was calculated
with conventional methods. Application of cropping
patterns is not uniform and not suitable with the land
condition especially in each secondary plots, thus it is
causing low production. The infrastructure condition in
each block varied, so it affected landuse patterns, land
productivity and local community welfare.
Conditions and design of various drainage networks
are resulting in the availability of water in different
fields and ultimately cropping patterns and landuse
vary also [8, 9]. Currently not available time series data
of land development of tidal lowland is the main
problem in developing land management plans and
land improvement. This study aims to analyze spatial
landuse and farming system of reclaimedted tidal
lowland in South Sumatra, Indonesia by using remote
sensing technology and GIS in knowing the
distribution of landuse change of tidal lowland. From
these conditions, it can see cropping patterns on each of
the secondary block and its relation to the condition of
the water system network.
2. Materials and Methods
The research was conducted in the Delta Saleh,
South Sumatra, Indonesia. Maps used are maps of
reclamation network, topography maps, Landsat TM
image Path/Row 124/62 in June 1992 and June 2002
record packaged in a CD-media ROM, and questioner
for data collection of reclamation network conditions,
cropping patterns and tracking network. The research
was done by using maps with 1:100,000 scales. Field
survey was done in July 2011 where soils were
intensively described and classified according to Soil
Taxonomy [10]. Composite soil samples were taken
after completing soil profile descriptions and then
analyzed in the laboratory for physical and chemical
soil analyses. Agricultural production was recorded by
using field square method (25 m × 25 m size) and
combined with the questionnaire results and interview
to the farmers.
3. Results and Discussion
3.1 Overview of the Delta Saleh
Delta Saleh is geographically located at latitudes
105°02'31" to 105°33′66′′E and longitudes 2°20′10′′
to 3°07′43′′S (Fig. 1).
Delta Saleh is a tidal lowland that is reclaimed and
occupied by transmigration in 1981. Based on the
topography type of land reclamation in Delta Saleh, the
overflow Type B has 1,856 ha area, Type C is 5,630 ha
and Type D is covering 2,944 ha. The dominant land
(Type A) is a potential land area of 9,438 ha, and acid
sulfate soil is 992 ha.
3.2 Spatial Analyses of Landuse Change
Delta Saleh was opened since in 1970s designed for
transmigration program based on agricultural
businesses. Since its opening till now, Delta Saleh has
undergone many changes in landuse. Landuse change
mainly is because of the pressure of population
increases in order to fulfill the need for increased food.
Based on the results of Landsat image interpretation
356 Spatial Landuse and Farming System Analyses of Reclaimed Tidal Lowland in South Sumatra, Indonesia

P 6 –1N

P 6 –4N
P6 –2N

P6 –3N

P6 –5N

P6 –6N

P6 –7N
P6 –

P6 –

P6 –

P6 –

P6 –

P6 –

P6 –

P6 –
P 8 – 7N

P 8 – 8N
P8 – 2N
P8 –1N

P 8 – 3N

P 8 – 4N

P8 – 5N

P8 – 6N
P8 – 1S

P8 – 2S

P8 – 3S

P8 – 4S

P8 – 5S

P8 – 6S

P8 – 7S
3
1,35 2,7
Km

P10 – 1N

P10 – 2N

P10 – 4N

P10 – 5N

P10 – 6N
P10 –
KETERANGAN
: Sampel Blok Sekunder Type
A Hidrotopografi A (Damar Wulan)

P10 – 1S

P10 – 2S

P10 – 3S

P10 – 4S
: Sampel Blok Sekunder Type
B Hidrotopografi B (Sido Hardjo)
: Sampel Blok Sekunder Type
C Hidrotopografi C (Sri Mulyo)

Fig. 1 Location of research site for Delta Saleh, Sumatra, Indonesia

in 1992, 2002 and field survey of 2011 in Delta Saleh,
the landuse types are summarized in Table 1.
From the results of interpretation of Landsat images
in 1992 and field survey of 2011, there were changes in
the type of significant landuse from 1992 to 2011.
Changes in landuse are even up to more than 100%,
either increase or reduction (Fig. 2). Large decrease in
the river or water body was from 6,643.53 ha to
6,539.18 ha or 1.60% down. This is expected because
the narrowing of the body due to sedimentation of the
river, and land in 1992 was still under water, because of
the making of the channel by the Bugis tribe, so the
land can be cultivated for paddy fields or coconut
plantation. There are significant changes in the primary
mangrove forest, widespread decline around 1,940.08
ha (147.20%).
Direct interpretation resulted that most of the
mangrove forest was converted into a secondary
mangrove forest and scrub. This is presumably because
the reducing of mangrove forests is becoming the
shrubs. On the other hand an increase in secondary
mangrove forest area of 345.64 ha (11.81%) is
probably derived from primary mangrove forest.
Significant changes also occurred in the shrubs in

Table 1 Landuse in the Delta Saleh in 1992, 2002 and 2011.

Acreage (ha) Percentage (%)
Landuse type
1992 2002 2011 1992 2002 2011
River/water body 6,643.53 6,559.83 6,539.18 12.92 12.76 12.72
Primarily mangrove forest 3,259.44 1,318.56 2,068.56 6.34 2.56 4.02
Secondary mangrove forest 2,579.94 2,921.58 2,921.58 5.03 5.68 5.68
Shrubs 7,889.40 8,756.48 9,345.78 15.35 17.03 18.17
Upland/mix crops 7,410.87 9,924.89 9,206.24 14.41 19.30 17.90
Paddy fields 23,619.40 18,518.40 17,518.40 45.93 36.01 34.07
Coconuts - 3,422.84 3,822.84 - 6.66 7.43
Total 51,422.58 100
 Spatial Landuse and Farming System Analyses of Reclaimed Tidal Lowland in South Sumatra, Indonesia 357
Landuse Map of
Delta Saleh 1992
Legend
Drainage
Primary Mangrove Forest
Secondary Mangrove Forest
Pady Field
Secondary Forest
River/Water Body
Mixed Crops
Fig. 2 Landuse changes from Landsat image in 1992 and 2002.
1992 the extent of 7,889.40 ha, in 2002 the area of
8,756.48 ha, while in 2011 to 9,345.78 ha. During the
twenty years, it had an increase of 1,456.36 ha (18.46%)
in area. This happens because the mangrove forest was
cut down and then left as the shrubs. Shrubs land also
comes from fields that are not cultivated, which is
because of inadequate drainage infrastructure and lack
of manpower and technology to work on these fields.
In 1992, the land area or an upland mixed crops was
7,410.87 ha area, it increased to 9,924.89 ha in 2002
and 9,206.24 ha in 2011. From 1992 to 2002 it was an
increase of 2,514.02 ha (33.92%), whereas in 2011, a
decline number was 718.65 ha (7.24%) compared with
those in 2002 This field was caused by that a lot of
lands are not cultivated and becoming shrubs.
During the last ten years a decline in the paddy fields
Landuse Map of
Delta Saleh 2002
Legend
Drainage
Primary Mangrove Forest
Secondary Mangrove Forest
Coconut
Pady Field
Secondary Forest
River/Water Body
Mixed Crops
field was from 23,619.4 ha in 1992 to 18,518.40 ha in
2002. It was around 5,101.0 ha or 21.59%. This was
due to conversion of paddy field to coconut plantation,
besides that, because the inadequate drainage facilities
cause the water available in the fields, so that fields
cannot be cultivated.
In 1992, it has not detected any coconut plantation,
while in 2002 it showed an area of coconut plantation
3,422.84 ha and 3,822.84 ha in 2011. This land had
been a paddy field or shrubs, most of these are found in
the North of Delta Saleh. This is because of the
activities of the Bugis tribe making channel to open the
land into coconut plantations or paddy fields.
3.3 Relationship of Topography and Landuse
The determination the effect of topography, landuse
358 Spatial Landuse and Farming System Analyses of Reclaimed Tidal Lowland in South Sumatra, Indonesia

patterns and farming systems was carried out using
detailed observations on several blocks that have
secondary topography or different type of overflow.
The observation in the village of Srimulyo, primary
and secondary block 10 South 2 (P10-2S), P10-2N, and
Category III (Type C overflow) showed that this land is
not flooded by high tide and low tide, but ground water
is less than 50 cm. This information shows that this
land could be used for paddy field, but need good water
management. This land can also be used for plantation
crops.
The observation in the village of secondary block of
Sidoharjo P8 and P8-6S-7S showed that most of it
consists of Category II (Type B overflow) or
periodically inundated by the high tide, the surface soil
above the water level below the lowest tide). This land
could be used for paddy fields.
Results showed that Damarwulan village in the
secondary block P6-P6-7S and 7N, mostly consisted of
Category I (Type a overflow) or periodically inundated
by the high tide and low tide). This land is suitable for
paddy fields. Landuse of each topography type is
summarized in Table 2 and the landuse maps in each
type of topography in 1992 and 2002 are presented in
Fig. 3. From the image interpretation results of 2002
and filed survey in 2011 showed that the Type A of
topography (Damarwulan Village Primary Secondary
6 Block 7 South (P6-7S) and (P6-7N), most of the
landuse were paddy fields of 250.28-262.80 ha of these
secondary block area. Upland crops or mixed crops
were in the second place 90.66-10.74 ha.
In the Type B topography in the village of
Sidohardjo (P8 and P8-6S-7S), it showed that the
largest fields were under paddy (283.14-314.20 ha) and
the upland crops are in the second place. On this site,
channel or water body was not interpreted because the
channel was covered with grass. At this location is not
found in coconut plantations, because its location is far
away from the river, so the coconut is less suitable.
Land that has topography of Type C in the village

Table 2 Cropping patterns in the Delta Saleh based on landsat interpretation and field survey in 2011.
Cropping patterns
Location/
Planting Season 1 (PS-1) Planting Season 2 (PS-2)
Village
Business Land 1 (BL-1) Business Land 2 (BL-2) Business Land 1 (BL-1) Business Land 2 (BL-2)
Damarwulan Paddy (84.37%) Paddy (71.8%) Coconut+Fallow (9.38%)
Fallow (87.5%)
(P6-7N) Coconut (6.25%) Coconut (12.5%) Coconut (6.25%)
Coconut (12.5%)
Type A Coconut + Paddy (9.38%) Fallow (15.7%) Fallow (84.37%)
Damarwulan Paddy (85.93%) Paddy (88.2%) Coconut + Fallow (9.38%)
Coconut + Fallow (2.34%)
(P6-7S) Coconut (4.69%) Coconut + Paddy (2.34%) Coconut (4.96%)
Fallow (97.64%)
Type A Coconut + Paddy (9.38%) Fallow (9.38%) Fallow (85.93%)
Paddy (80.46%)
Sidoharjo Vegetable + Fallow (7.03%)
Paddy + Vegetable Paddy (92.97%) Fallow (100%)
(P8-6S) Vegetable (3.90%)
(9.38%) Fallow (7.03%)
Type B Fallow (89.07%)
Fallow (10.6%)
Paddy (84.37%)
Sidoharjo Paddy (89.84%)
Vegetable + Paddy Vegetable (12.5%) Fallow (100%)
(P8-7S) Vegetable + Paddy
(12.5%) Fallow (87.5%)
Type B (10.16%)
Fallow (3.13%)
Paddy (84.37%
Srimulyo Paddy (86.75%) Coconut + Fallow (6.25%)
Coconut + Paddy (6.25%) Fallow (100%)
(P10-2N) Fallow (13.28%) Coconut (6.25%)
Coconut (0%)
Type C Fallow (86.75%)
Fallow (3.13%)
Corn (15.63%)
Srimulyo Paddy (93.75%) Corn (6.4%)
Paddy (100%) Coconut + Fallow (6.25%)
(P10-2S) Coconut + Paddy (6.25%) Fallow (95.6%)
Soya (6.40%)
Type C
Fallow (71.72%)
 Spatial Landuse and Farming System Analyses of Reclaimed Tidal Lowland in South Sumatra, Indonesia 359

Landuse Map of Delta Saleh

1992

Legend
Drainage
River/Water Body
Coconut
Secondary Forest
Pady Field
Mixed Crops
Secondary Mangrove

Landuse Map of
Delta Saleh 2002

Legend
Drainage

River/Water Body

Coconut
Secondary Forest
Pady Field
Mixed Crops
Secondary Mangrove

Fig. 3 Landuse maps of Delta Saleh in 1992 and 2002.

360 Spatial Landuse and Farming System Analyses of Reclaimed Tidal Lowland in South Sumatra, Indonesia
of Srimulyo (P10-2N and P10-2S) was identified as
paddy fields around 283.03-300.41 ha. Dry field area
was in second place (94.85-102.78 ha). Coconut
occupied the smallest area of 0.09-0.27 ha and mostly it
was found in home garden only.
Using spatial analysis, it is indicated that the
uncultivated land or shrubs was in the largest Type A
of topography (10.80 ha) and the smallest in
topography Type C was 2.97 ha. From these data it is
shown that although Type A is still a lot of land is not
utilized due to lack of appropriated drainage network
conditions, so there is land that is flooded, and there is a
drought.
Image analysis showed the greatest changes in
landuse occurred in the Type A topography was 123.31
ha in the Secondary Block P6-7S and 130.31 ha in the
Secondary Block P6-7N. The biggest change in the
paddy field reached 48.64%, decreased area changes,
the paddy field of 1992 reached 80.29% of the
secondary block, whereas in 2011 the area was
decreased 65.59%. Widespread decline of this field is
due to the drainage channels that are not equipped with
proper infrastructure to support so that land can no
longer be used as paddy fields. Beside that lack of
technology of land cultivation causes farmers could not
work on all the land he owned.
From the results of imagery landsat interpretation
and field observation for ten years, the landuse in this
field changed into the shrubs land, upland crops or a
mixed crops and coconut trees. This is reflected by an
increase in the shrubs area in 1992 covering 15.23 ha to
37.53 in 2011 for a secondary block, and the addition
of coconut was 11.16 ha in 2011.
Wide-enhancing land also occurred in the field or
mixed crop. In 1992 its extent was 52.58 ha and 62.73
ha in 2001 while in 2011 it reached 90.66 ha. Changes
occurred for 22.65% and 44.06%. This increase
occurred because the water is not sufficient that a mix
plants do not require so much water.
On topography Type B in Sidoharjo Village (P8 and
P8-6S-7S), it occurred reduction of the shrubs area
25.00 ha and 48.71 ha in 1992 to 18.58 ha and 12.78 ha
in 2011. This caused a lot of shrubs land in many open
fields or crops to be mixed crops. This is reflected in
the increasing expansion of the mixed crops in 1992,
covering 55.17 ha and 70.12 ha and increased to 104.57
ha and 102.78 ha in 2011, in other words an increase in
area of 12.42 ha and 34.45 ha.
The topography Type C is represented by the village
of Srimulyo (P10-P10-2S and 2N), paddy fields
declined fields of 59.37 ha and 57.35 ha. The same
thing happened in the shrubs decrease of 6.21 ha and
15.40 ha. Results from field observations and images
showed changes landuse of paddy fields, shrubs and
mix crop. Results also showed that upland crops
increased to 61.98 ha and mixed crops increased to
73.42 ha. This is because of lack of water and the dry
land can only be planted with these crops.
3.4 Farming System
Farmers in Delta Saleh come mostly from Java Island.
The allocated land for transmigration area is 2 ha per
household, consisting of BL-1 (business land 1) 1 ha
and BL-2 (business land 2) 1 ha. The cropping pattern
conditions depended on the land, the overflow type and
completeness of existing drainage network system.
Generally there are two planting seasons, i.e. PS-1
(planting season 1) in month of November to March and
PS-2 (planting season 2) in the month of May to August.
Existing cropping patterns in each block of secondary
observations are presented in Table 2.
In the Damarwulan Village represented by Type A
topography in Block Secondary (P6-7N) showed in
Planting Season 1 (PS-1) and BL-1, mostly cultivated
for paddy (84.37%) and 9.38% planted with coconut
along boundaries of paddy fields to increase farmer’s
income. BL-2 was still dominated by paddy fields
71.8%, but the BL-2 in PS-1 still have fallow of 15.7%.
Whereas on the PS-2 (both BL-1 and BL-2), most of
area was not cultivated (fallow) 84.37% on the BL-1
and 87.5% on the BL-2. On the PS-2, the land was
fallowed due to lack of irrigation infrastructure causing
 Spatial Landuse and Farming System Analyses of Reclaimed Tidal Lowland in South Sumatra, Indonesia 361
flood on the land.
In the secondary block (P6-7S) on the PS-1, BL-1
and PS-2, mostly paddy fields were cultivated (85.93%)
in the BL-1 and (88.2%) in the BL-2, while on the PS-2
generally, it was not cultivated (fallow) by farmers. In
the Village Sidoharjo (P8-6S) and (P8-7S), it was Type
B. In both PS-1, BL-1 and BL-2 were dominated by
paddy fields (more than 80%). Results showed that in
village BL-1 was not only cultivated monocrop, but
also intercropping vegetables between paddy fields
which were 12.5% in the BL-1 and 10.16% in the BL-2.
On the PS-2, most of land was fallowed mainly in the
BL-2 (100%), whereas in the BS-1, it was still planted
with vegetables (12.50%). This is because the land is
relatively dry and its drainage infrastructure does not
work; farmers can still grow vegetables only just to
meet the needs of their own households.
In the overflow Type C in Srimulyo village (P10-2N)
of PS-1, BL-1 and BL-2, all lands were planted with
paddy fields, although there is intercropping with
coconut trees. While on the PS-2, the land was
fallowed because the drainage network is not
functioning and not equipped with water gates and
plants were suffering water shortage problems.
In the secondary block (P10-2S), on the PS-1,
around 93.75-100% of lands were cultivated with
paddy fields, while on the PS-2, the BL-1 was
cultivated with corn 15.63% and 6.40% for soybean.
In the PS-2, the lands can still cultivate both grain and
cash crop, because it was equipped with facilities of
adequate drainage network, but it was well maintained
channels because the drainage systems are equipped
with water gate. Only socio-economic problems cause
farmers cannot plant twice of paddy fields.
4. Conclusions
Over the last ten years (1992-2001), a decline in the
paddy field area is from 23,619.4 ha to 18,518.40 ha
(27.65%). A decrease of river acreage (water body)
occurred from 6,643.53 ha to 6,559.83 ha. In 1992, it
has not detected any coconut plantation, while in 2002
it showed an area of coconut plantation 3,422.84 ha and
3,822.84 ha in 2011. Significant changes are also
presented in primary mangrove forest, widespread
decline around 1,940.88 ha (147.20%).
Most of the mangrove forest was converted into
secondary mangrove forest and scrub. Linkage with
topography type showed that the land with topography
Type A was majority for paddy fields 250.28-262.80 ha
(62.72%-65.59%). Mixed crop fields were in second
place with acreage of 90.66-106.36 ha
(22.72%-26.80%). The land with topography Type B
showed the widest paddy fields (283.14-314.20 ha or
70.70%-78.48%), followed by upland crops. The land
with topography Type C showed that paddy fields was
283.03-300.41 ha (70.66%-75.02%), followed by
upland crops 94.85-102.78 ha (23.69%-25.66%), and
coconut was the smallest 0.09-0.27 ha. Generally the
cropping index was 100 (it is planted one time per year)
on PS-1 for BL-1 and BL-2 planted with paddy fields,
while the PS-2 are generally not cultivated land
(fallow).
References
[1] F. Syarkowi, A. Arbain, M.E. Armanto, U. Santoso, J.
Arjuna, R.A. Setiawan, et al., Environmental Quality of
Sumatra Island 2007, State Ministry for Environment,
Republic of Indonesia, Pekanbaru, Riau, 2007, p. 26.
[2] M.E. Armanto, M.S. Imanudin, S.M. Bernas, R.H.
Susanto, Land Evaluation as a Basic for Directing of
Landuse to Support an Increase of Cropping Index in
Reclamated Tidal Land Area, Final Report of Competitive
National Strategy Grant, DIKTI, Jakarta, Indonesia, 2010,
pp. 5-10.
[3] M.E. Armanto, Relationship between soil taxonomy and
swampy land typology in South Sumatra, Dinamika
Pertanian, Jakarta, Indonesia, 2002, pp, 24-33.
[4] T.F.A. Bishop, B. Minasny, Digital soil-terrain modeling:
The predictive potential and uncertainty, in: S. Grunwald
(Ed.), Environmental Soil Landscape Modeling:
Geographic Information Technologies and Pedometrics,
CRC Press, Boca Raton, 2005, pp. 185-213.
[5] P. Lagacherie, A.B. McBartney, M. Voltz, Digital Soil
Mapping: An Introductory Perspective, Developments in
Soil Science, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 2006, Vol. 31, p. 350
[6] A.B. McBratney, M.I. Mendonça Santos, B. Minasny, On
digital soil mapping, Geoderma 117 (1-2) (2003) 3-52.
362 Spatial Landuse and Farming System Analyses of Reclaimed Tidal Lowland in South Sumatra, Indonesia

[7] M.E. Armanto, Competition, Conflict, Strategy and
Package of Land Resource Use Planning, Scientific Book,
Sriwijaya University, Palembang, Indonesia, 2005, pp.
45-48.
[8] M.E. Armanto, Existing impacts of reclamation channels
on morphology and classification characters as well as soil
productivity, Journal of Environment Management and
Natural Resources 1 (2) (2003) 105-116.
[9] M.E. Armanto, J. Lamp, Spatial characterization of soil
properties using geostatistical approach, Journal of Habitat
XII (3) (2001) 205-212.
[10] Soil Survey Staff, Keys to Soil Taxonomy, 11th ed.,
USDA-National Resources Conservation Service,
Washington DC, USA, 2010.
Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering B 1 (2012) 363-378
Formerly part of Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, ISSN 1934-8932
D DAVID PUBLISHING

Two- and Three-Dimensional Urban Core Determinants

of the Urban Heat Island: A Statistical Approach

Bumseok Chun and Jean-Michel Guldmann

Department of City and Regional Planning, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 43210, USA

Received: July 16, 2011 / Accepted: October 8, 2011 / Published: March 20, 2012.

Abstract: There is no doubt that the UHI (urban heat island) is a mounting problem in built-up environments, due to the energy
retention by surface dense building materials, leading to increased temperatures, air pollution, and energy consumption. Much of the
earlier research on the UHI has used two-dimensional (2-D) information, such as land uses and the distribution of vegetation. In the
case of homogeneous land uses, it is possible to predict surface temperatures with reasonable accuracy with 2-D information. However,
three-dimensional (3-D) information is necessary to analyze more complex sites, including dense building clusters. In this research,
3-D building geometry information is combined with 2-D urban surface information to examine the relationship between urban
characteristics and temperature. The research includes the following stages: (1) estimating urban temperature; (2) developing a 3-D city
model; (3) generating geometric parameters; and (4) conducting statistical analyses using both linear and non-linear regression models.
The implications of the results are discussed, providing guidelines for policies aiming to reduce the UHI.

Key words: Urban heat island, urban morphology, three-dimensional city model, geographic information system.

1. Introduction understanding of how urban characteristics influence

surface temperatures, using both GIS (geographical
While melting glaciers, sea level rise, and the
information systems) and statistical techniques, and
flooding of coastal cities are often viewed as the most
making use of data for the urban core of the city of
dramatic effects of global warming, increasing urban
Columbus, Ohio. To model this relationship, both 2-D
temperatures is also a mounting problem. Construction
and 3-D information is used to represent the complex
materials, such as concrete and asphalt, absorb thermal
urban geometric structure of urban centers. Much of
energy during daytime and release it during nighttime,
the earlier UHI research has used 2-D information,
leading to temperature in urban core areas higher than
such as land uses delineated with satellite imagery and
in surrounding suburban and rural areas. This
building ground floor boundaries produced by GIS. In
phenomenon is called the UHI (urban heat island).
the case of homogeneous land uses, this information
The UHI directly impacts urban population, by
may be sufficient to predict surface temperatures with
inducing heat stress and health problem and worsening
good accuracy [1, 2]. However, 3-D information is
air quality through the formation of tropospheric ozone.
necessary to analyze more complex sites, including
Increased temperatures lead to increased energy and
dense building clusters [3, 4]. This research employs
electricity consumption for air conditioning. In
LiDAR data and techniques to generate 3-D urban
addition, increasing water temperatures can result in
geometry characteristics.
ecosystem destruction.
The remainder of the paper is organized as follows.
The purpose of this research is to improve our
Section 2 consists of a literature review. Section 3
presents the modeling methodology. Section 4
Corresponding author: Jean-Michel Guldmann, professor,
main research fields: quantitative planning methods,
describes the case study area and the data used. Model
environmental management. E-mail: guldmann.1@osu.edu.
364 Two- and Three-Dimensional Urban Core Determinants of the Urban Heat Island:
A Statistical Approach
estimation results are discussed in Section 5. Section 6
concludes and outlines areas for further research.
2. Literature Review
The UHI is an important environmental issue
related to differentials in surface temperature created
by urban development. Many cities and some of their
suburbs have higher temperatures than their
surroundings [5]. In general, urban impervious
surfaces absorb solar heat and hold it in the absence of
cold air advection, resulting from complex surface
characteristics, such as high-rise buildings and their
low albedo [5, 6]. This increased thermal capacity
induces a difference in the micrclimates of urban and
rural areas. Oke [7] has been among the first to
describe the UHI. The UHI is relatively lower during
summer daytime because of humidity, but it becomes
higher during summer nighttime and during all days in
winter [8]. Wind speed is reduced by buildings that
face each other closely. Weak airflows are one of the
factors influencing surface temperatures. With regard
to surface characteristics, the albedo (reflectivity) is
directly related to the UHI. A high albedo releases
thermal energy from the surface, but a lower albedo
absorbs this energy into the surface [9]. Thermal
storage by surface materials is also an important factor
in investigating urban energy balances. Most materials
used for buildings and impervious surfaces easily
store thermal energy. In contrast, a vegetative cover
has much lower absorption of thermal energy, due to
evapotranspiration and high albedo. Several studies
have examined the implementation of statistical
models aiming to understand and mitigate the UHI.
These models are characterized by two categories of
factors: surface characteristics and 3-D building
infrastructure.
First, with regard to surface characteristics, land
use/cover is the primary feature used in exploring the
UHI. Weng [10], Chen et al. [11] and Amiri et al. [12]
generate maps displaying land use/cover patterns with
images captured by Landsat TM (thematic mapper) or
ETM+ to analyze surface temperature characteristics
of urban environments. They find that urban
expansion reduces the amount of biomass, which
tends to raise temperature. They use simple
comparisons of land-cover changes over time. Wilson
et al. [13] analyze the UHI by using the NDVI
calculated from Landsat 7 ETM+ and GIS land-use
data. Their simple linear regression models show that
lands covered by impervious materials generate higher
surface temperatures. They also explore the
relationship between surface temperature, NDVI, and
development density. Lower NDVI and higher
development density increase surface temperature.
Solecki et al. [14] concentrate on the NDVI to
understand the characteristics of surface temperatures.
Most studies focusing on vegetative coverage have
been performed using the NDVI, which has a negative
impact on surface temperature. Jenerette et al. [15]
apply demographic and topographic information (i.e.
population density, median income, Hispanic
population, year built, elevation, and slope) to find
indirect effects by using path analysis. An increase in
median income tends to decrease surface temperature.
However, the other variables increase surface
temperature.
Second, 3-D geometric characteristics are directly
related to building infrastructure [16]. In particular,
solar radiation and canyon effects are determined by
3-D geometry. Built-up environments have relatively
lower solar radiation because of the blocking of
sunlight by dense buildings, whereas more sunlight
reaches ground surfaces in rural areas. Despite this
difference, surface temperatures in built-up
environments are higher than in rural areas, because
high-rise buildings trap heat within a limited ground
space [5]. The SVF (sky view factor) and the H/W
ratio measure of these geometric effects [17-24]. The
SVF measures the amount of sky visible from a
ground-level location, as projected onto a 2-D space.
This projection involves two stages: (1) projection of a
point from the 3-D space to a sphere, and (2) projection
 Two- and Three-Dimensional Urban Core Determinants of the Urban Heat Island:
A Statistical Approach
from the sphere to a plane. The SVF represents the
ratio of visible sky to surrounding structures within a
reference circle. The SVF varies between 0 and 1. If an
observer cannot see the sky due to buildings and trees
obstructions, SVF = 0; if the visible sky fills the whole
reference circle, SVF = 1. Previous research shows that
nocturnal urban temperatures are negatively correlated
with the SVF [12, 25, 26]. Bottyán and Unger [17] and
Unger [4] show that surface temperatures are
negatively affected by the SVF.
The H/W (height-to-width) ratio is another
representative index of street geometry [27-29]. It
impacts surface temperature by isolating air flows. For
example, a deep urban canyon (H/W ≈ 10) has high
nocturnal temperatures at ground level, as compared to
a shallow canyon. A deep urban canyon may create a
comfort zone due to shading during daytime, but it
does not maintain this comfort at night because of heat
accumulation without airflows. The ventilation pattern
determined by the H/W ratio has an impact on surface
temperatures. High surface temperatures on
impervious surfaces cannot be easily decreased without
a low H/W ratio that induces dynamic air circulation.
Enough space between buildings plays a role in
creating a cooling effect. Offerle et al. [30] explore the
H/W ratio for each land use, considering its mean value
for CBD (central business districts), industrial,
residential and rural areas. As expected, the CBD and
rural areas have the highest and lowest ratios,
respectively.
Another index of geometric characteristics is the
porosity, which quantifies the 3-D open space in
built-up environments [19, 31-33]. This parameter,
based on building volumes, has been used to
investigate dispersion of air pollution and the UHI, by
linking ventilation patterns to urban roughness.
Despite its applicability, it has not yet been used in
statistical analyses of the UHI.
Other parameters have been recently explored to
describe urban geometric characteristics. Compactness
(C), weighted volumetric compactness (Cw), and
365
volumetrically averaged building height, used in
conjunction with building volumes and surface
parameters, are relatively new surface parameters
representing surface roughness. Unger [4] proposes a
weighted volumetric compactness index (Cw) that
expands the compactness index, and obtains R2 = 0.30
and R2 = 0.52 when regressing surface temperature to
C and Cw, respectively.
In contrast to previous studies, this research also
accounts for anthropogenic heat. Only a few studies
have focused on the amount of energy consumed by
buildings. Ichinose et al. [34] study seasonal and
temporal changes in temperature and energy
consumption, using graphical analyses.
Anthropogenic heat has the effect of increasing
surface temperatures, but its impact is stronger in
winter than in summer because of the need for
space-heating. Hinkel et al. [35] investigate the
relationship between the UHI intensity and natural gas
use, using monthly-averaged temperatures for urban
and rural areas, and find that the winter season (i.e.
December, January, and February) has higher
temperature differences between urban and rural areas
because of increased gas consumption.
3. Modeling Methodology
A model is proposed for UHI analysis that involves
the overlaying of a grid over an urban core area, with
several layers of data generated from different sources
(geometry, energy consumption, surface temperature,
vegetation).
3.1 Three-Dimensional City Model
A 3-D city model is fundamental to represent the
geometry of built-up environments. With 3-D
information, the topological and geometric
characteristics of urban form can be measured
quantitatively and used to analyze the UHI. This
research makes use of three geospatial databases: (1)
LiDAR data to estimate each building height, (2) GIS
building footprints to describe their ground-level
366 Two- and Three-Dimensional Urban Core Determinants of the Urban Heat Island:
A Statistical Approach
boundaries and (3) a DTM (digital terrain model) to
estimate terrain elevation from sea level.
Filtering LiDAR data is the first step to remove
unnecessary data and to reduce the size of the LiDAR
database. Second, dissolving GIS building footprints
removes internal building boundaries and creates a
unique footprint containing all parts of a given building,
based on its name.
There are three steps in filtering LiDAR data. First,
these data are filtered by type of LiDAR pulse. A
LiDAR pulse may strike different objects on its way to
the ground, and a portion of the pulse may return to the
sensor. Because of this phenomenon, LiDAR pulses
are classified as first-return pulses and multiple-return
pulses. A first-return pulse would detect a concrete
surface, while a multiple-return pulse would detect
materials composed of several layers, such as a canopy.
Multiple-return pulses are discarded, so that LiDAR
data only measure man-made objects. Second, the
intensity of a LiDAR pulse measures the degree of
material rigidity (e.g., building roofs). This intensity is
relative, varying with altitude, atmospheric conditions,
directional reflectance properties, and the reflectivity
of the target. In particular, the intensity of LiDAR data
requires numerous trials because intensity values are
relative. In this research, observations with intensity
below 50 are eliminated. Most data having intensity
less than 50 represent the top of a tree canopy. In
contrast, building roofs generate a high intensity due to
their hardened materials. Third, LiDAR data ground
filtering is a critical step for distinguishing buildings
from non-building objects. LiDAR data are classified
into two types: ground and non-ground. Extracting
non-ground LiDAR data provides the elevation of
buildings as input to the DSM (digital surface model).
The procedure for data fusion starts with adding the
filtered LiDAR data onto the digitized building
footprints. The spatial joining capability of ArcGIS is
used to perform this data fusion. The highest point
among the LiDAR points within each dissolving
building footprint is taken as the height of that building
roof. A building height estimated with only LiDAR
points is larger than the actual height, because this
height includes also ground-level height. Excluding the
influence of topography leads to the actual building
height by normalizing the DSM (nDSM):
nDSM = DSM – DTM (1)
The nDSM filtering process must be performed to
test for discrepancy between the height of the actual
buildings and the height of the building constructed in
the 3-D model. The resolution of DTM and the density
of LiDAR points may cause problem. For example, the
spatial resolution of DTM is 3 m × 3 m. The DTM
cannot provide ground floor elevation for buildings
that are smaller than this resolution. For accuracy
assessment, two types of information are needed: DTM
and LiDAR points. However, rasterized DTM must be
converted to a regular point-based DTM, because a
critical function in ArcGIS, its spatial joining
capability, cannot be applied to raster-based DTM.
Based on the density of LiDAR points and the regular
point-based DTM, this research has evaluated the
accuracy of the fusion process in three cases leading to
erroneous building shapes.
Case 1: DSM = 0. There are several DTM points in a
building footprint, but no LiDAR points for the DSM.
As the DSM is set to zero, the nDSM takes a negative
value. This discrepancy may be due to (a) the building
footprint having been created at a time after using the
LiDAR system, or (b) the building footprint being
smaller than the resolution of the LiDAR system.
Case 2: DTM = 0. There are no DTM points on a
building footprint although it includes several LiDAR
points for DSM. Thus, the nDSM value is greater than
the actual building height.
Case 3: DSM = DTM = 0. As there are no LiDAR
and DTM points on the building footprint, the nDSM
value is set equal to zero. This discrepancy may be due
to (a) the building footprint being smaller than the
resolution of the LiDAR system and (b) the density of
DTM points.
A simple numerical assessment is implemented by
 Two- and Three-Dimensional Urban Core Determinants of the Urban Heat Island:
A Statistical Approach
computing the percentage, , of building foot-prints for
which there is no measurement problem, with:
 x  x  x3 
y  1  1 2   100 (2)
 x4  distance between buildings is first calculated. Then, the
where, x1 = number of building footprints in case 1
(DSM = 0), x2 = number of building footprints in case 2
(DTM = 0), x3 = number of building footprints in case 3
(DSM = DTM = 0), and x4 = total number of building
footprints. In the empirical application of this research,
the values of these variables are: x1 = 993, x2 = 269, x3 =
180, and x4 = 37,133. Thus, the building detection
accuracy is y = 96.12%. In other words, there is a
96.12% match between building footprints and
buildings reconstructed with LiDAR data, which
supports the method for constructing a 3-D model. In
addition, it is assumed that buildings having an average
height of less than 7 ft. are not surface objects
impacting people and their environment. 915 building
footprints were lower than 7 ft. After removing them,
the total number of available building footprints in the
case study area is 34,776. Therefore, 93.65% of
building structures are reconstructed with spatial
information.
3.2 Urban Geometrical Characteristics
Several geometry-based characteristics of
high-density urban cores have been suggested as
important determinants of the UHI. They are discussed
below.
3.2.1 The H/W (Height-to-Width) Ratio
The H/W ratio is calculated as the ratio of a building
height to the width of the street abutting the building.
The problem is to identify streets between buildings,
which is not easy because of lack of street information
and irregular street patterns. In addition, there can be
space between buildings without streets. This means
that GIS street information cannot provide all the
necessary information, leading to possibly imperfect
results. In this research, it is proposed to focus on
primary moving patterns in the four main directions
(east, west, south, and north) to solve H/W ratio
367
estimation problems [36]. This is illustrated in Fig. 1 by
starting to calculate the H/W ratio from west (left) to
east (right). The ratio of building’s height to the
H/W ratio between buildings is similarly calculated.
Conversely, the H/W ratios can be calculated when
moving east (right) to west (left). Similar calculation
can be done in the north (upper) to south (bottom) and
south (bottom) to north (upper) directions.
3.2.2 SVF (Sky View Factor)
The spatial openness of a built environment is an
important factor that decreases urban temperatures, by
enhancing air circulation and wind flow. This openness
is related to the effects generated by buildings. The
SVF has been applied to explore spatial openness. A
higher SVF produces not only more air circulation, but
also less shadows during daytime, and it facilitates the
release of thermal energy during nighttime. In contrast,
a lower SVF obstructs cooling effects because of
surrounding building structures, and generates more
shadows during daytime.
The SVF measures the ratio of visible sky within a
reference circle area on the 2-D space. It can range
from 0 to 1. A higher SVF represents more open space,
whereas a lower SVF is generated by densely-built
environments. This research uses the Sky View Factor
Extension of Arc View GIS to estimate SVF at each
observation location. Building footprints and heights
are required to estimate SVF. The total number of
observed location is 11,067 and their separation 200
Fig. 1 H/W (height-to-width) ratio.
368 Two- and Three-Dimensional Urban Core Determinants of the Urban Heat Island:
A Statistical Approach
foot. A 1,000 ft.-radius circle is used to determine the
SVF at a given location. The rotation angle for the lines
of sight from an observation location is 5 degrees.
3.2.3 Building Geometric Parameters
A PSA (plan surface area) displaying building floor
density on the ground is the basic geometric
information needed to investigate urban districts. PSA
represents the ratio of total building ground floor area
(Ag) to a given area (A). Define Ag as the GIS-appraised
area for building footprints in a given area unit. PSA is
then defined as:
PSA = Ag/A (3)
Building surfaces (S), including walls and roofs,
play an important role in influencing energy flows
between buildings and their environment. Energy
transmission through building faces is directly
influenced by outdoor weather conditions, such as
wind and solar intensity. Both building volume and
surface impact cooling and heating flows. The total
surface S is:
S = PH + Ar (4)
where, P = building perimeter, H = building height,
and Ar = building roof area.
Using building volume (V) and surface area (S), a
compactness index can be defined to analyze the
relationship between building geometry and energy
consumption [37]. For example, a compact building
gains less heat during the day and looses less heat
during the night. Compactness (C) is measured by:
C = S/V (5)
A weighted volumetric compactness index (Cw)
expands the compactness index in Eq. (5). For a given
building with volume (V), a cube with volume V is
created. Deriving the edge length of the cube, a, the
area of the cube surface (Sc) is calculated. Sc is always
smaller than S. If the ratio of S to Sc is close to 1, the
building surface is more efficient in decreasing energy
consumption. Cw is computed as:
Cw = (S/Sc)V (6)
The volumetrically-averaged building height (HV) is a
measure of building geometry over a given area [8, 19].
This parameter has been used to evaluate urban
roughness in models of pollutant dispersion in urban
areas. Assume that there are n (i = 1n) buildings in a
given area. Then:
 V H
n
i 1 i i
Hv  (7)
 V
n
i 1 i
where, Vi = building i volume, and Hi = building i
height.
Another geometric parameter is the porosity (P),
which measures the volume of open space, excluding
building volumes, in a given area [31]. The porosity is
defined by:

n
VT  V
i 1 i
P (8)
VT
where, VT = volume of the area, defined as the product
of the area surface by the height of its tallest building.
3.3 Anthropogenic Heat
Energy used for building operations may further
exacerbate the UHI. Earlier research has concentrated
on vehicle energy flows in analyzing the UHI.
However, energy use in buildings may be a more
serious problem because of emissions of air pollutants
and carbon dioxide.
The U.S. EIA (Energy Information Administration)
provides statistical data on building energy
consumption. Total building floorspace is used to
estimate the amount of fuel used: primary electricity,
site electricity, natural gas, and fuel oil. The EIA also
provides average RECS (residential energy
consumption data). For commercial buildings
(CBECS), it only publicly provides total energy
consumptions for building floor space ranges. This
research computes, for each range, the energy
consumption per ft2, and then applies these ratios to the
actual buildings. However, it is difficult to estimate the
floorspace of actual buildings, because Franklin
County does not publicly provide total floorspace and
number of stories for buildings. It is therefore
necessary to estimate total building floorspace in order
to estimate energy consumption.
 Two- and Three-Dimensional Urban Core Determinants of the Urban Heat Island: 369
A Statistical Approach

7.5 ft.
10 ft.
7.5 ft.

10 ft.
7.5 ft.

(a) (b)
Fig. 2 Floor-to-floor height: (a) residential building; (b) commercial building.

Building height and ground floorspace are used to
estimate total floorspace. The floor-to-floor height is
generally 7.5 ft in the case of residential building. On
the other hand, the height of each story in commercial
buildings is 10 ft [38] (see Fig. 2). The residential
building has four floors, while the commercial one has
three floors. The total floorspace, T, of a given building
is estimated with:
 h h 
T   i   j  1  a (9)
 7.5 10  spatial resolution1 of 120 m, and can provide urban
where, T = total floor space of the building, h =
building height, a = building ground floor area, i = 1 if
the building is residential, and = 0 if not, j = 1 if the
building is commercial, and = 0 if not. Using the data in
Table 1 and Table 2, the average energy consumption
of each building is estimated.
3.4 The NDVI (Normalized Differential Vegetation
Index)
The NDVI has been used extensively to identify the
amount of vegetation cover. It is computed as the ratio
of different bands reflecting the percentage of
vegetative ground cover as determined by the amount
of plant chlorophyll. The NDVI is calculated based on
the visible wavelength band (Red: 0.6 μm-0.7 μm) and
the Near Infra-Red band (NIR: 0.7 μm-1.1 μm) of
Landsat TM, because vegetation has a high spectral
reflectivity of solar radiation on the NIR band. The
NDVI ranges from -1 to 1. Values ranging between 0.1
and 1 commonly indicate vegetation coverage. A
higher NDVI indicates healthy vegetation coverage,
whereas a lower NDVI is related to water and
impervious materials. The equation defining the NDVI
is:
NIR  Red
NDVI  (10)
NIR  Red
3.5 Surface Temperature
The thermal infrared band of Landsat TM has a
temperature estimates. Moreover, its DN (digital
number) value2 varies from 0 to 255 for recording the
spectral reflectance from the earth surface. This digital
number must be numerically converted to a radiometric
scale to estimate urban temperatures. The numerical
conversion method is provided by the USGS (U.S.
Geological Survey) and has been broadly used to map
temperatures. This method has been updated by the
EDC (Earth Resource Observation System Data
Center). Eq. (11) and Eq. (12) are used to perform this
conversion.
Eq. (11) is the primary formula to estimate
temperature, and includes two calibration constants (K1
and K2) and the spectral radiance at the sensor’s
aperture (Lλ). The two constants have been defined by
Landsat TM sensors. Lλ is a rescaling factor to predict
1
Spatial resolution is the size of pixel that is recorded in a
raster image.
2
DN (digital number) value represents the value of each pixel
in a raster set.
370 Two- and Three-Dimensional Urban Core Determinants of the Urban Heat Island:
A Statistical Approach

Table 1 Average energy consumption for various building sizes (RECS). Unit: British Thermal Units (100,000 Btu).
Electricity
Total floorspace (ft2) Natural gas Fuel oil
Primary Site
Fewer than 500 582 199 495 1,145
500 to 999 788 269 472 907
1,000 to 1,499 1,052 359 638 993
1,500 to 1,999 1,216 415 689 836
2,000 to 2,499 1,230 420 722 932
2,500 to 2,999 1,268 433 746 1,107
3,000 to 3,499 1,288 440 822 1,046
3,500 to 3,999 1,362 465 863 1,134
4,000 or More 1,675 572 936 1,207
Primary Electricity: “A measurement of electricity that includes the approximate amount of energy used to generate electricity. To
approximate the adjusted amount of electricity, the site-value of the electricity is multiplied by a conversion factor of three. This factor
of three is an approximation of the Btu value of raw fuels used to generate electricity in a steam-generation power plant. In the RECS
tables and analyses, electricity is represented as site energy”. Site Electricity: “The Btu value of energy at the point it enters the home,
sometimes referred to as “delivered” energy. The site value of energy is used for all fuels, including electricity”. (U.S. Energy
Information Administration: Independent Statistics and Analysis, 2010).

Table 2 Average energy consumption for various building sizes (CBECS). Unit: British Thermal Units (100,000 Btu).
Electricity
Total floorspace (ft2) Natural gas Fuel oil
Primary Site
Fewer than 5,000 4,279.8 1,415.7 928.1 122.7
5,001 to 10,000 6,905.3 2,291.3 1,751.7 281.5
10,001 to 25,000 20,238.5 6,704.7 4,879.9 387.0
25,001 to 50,000 47,924.2 15,868.1 11,111.7 679.4
50,001 to 100,000 115,076.2 38,115.8 20,187.5 2,113.4
100,001 to 200,000 260,007.8 86,179.8 40,373.8 5,432.1
200,001 to 500,000 538,030.4 177,942.3 98,545.5 16,813.4
Over 500,000 987,597.9 327,023.4 146,214.0 6,527.4

the original DN value recorded by the initial setting of 4. Study Area and Data
the sensors. In addition, the NLAPS (National Landsat
4.1 Study Area
Archive Production System) provides calibration
constants relating Grescale and Brescale to Lλ [39]. The This research focuses on a densely-built part of the
equations are as follows: City of Columbus, Ohio (Fig. 3), with an area of 17.9
K2 square miles (46.5 km2), and including the CBD
T (11)
 K1  (Central Business District), the city’s economic
ln  1
 L  development hub. The Scioto River and the Olentangy
where, T = estimated temperature in Kelvin, K2 = River flow from north to south, and merge into one
calibration constant: 1,260.56 K, K1 = calibration channel near the CBD. There are parks and recreation
constant: 607.76 W/(m2·sr·μm), Lλ = spectral radiance places for outdoor activities in the southern part of the
at the sensor’s aperture. research area. The site also includes residential areas.
L G rescale Qcal  Brescale (12) Its temperature has increased by at least 5  °C since
where, Lλ = spectral radiance at the sensor’s aperture, 1986.
Grescale = 0.055158 W/(m2·sr·μm)/DN, Qcal = DN value, In 2000, the population of the city was 711,470. A
Brescale = 1.2378 W/(m2·sr·μm). continuing population growth since 1950 has induced
 Two- and Three-Dimensional Urban Core Determinants of the Urban Heat Island: 371
A Statistical Approach

image enhancement with Eq. (10). Green cells stand for

0 0.5 1 2 Miles
Fig. 3 Study area.
growth in energy consumption and building
construction, leading to increase surface temperatures.
4.2 Surface Data
4.2.1 Surface Temperature
Fig. 4 presents the surface temperatures derived
from the thermal band of Landsat TM on July 6, 2007.
The mean temperature was 30.1 °C, and the highest
temperature 39.8 °C. The central part of the study area,
where many buildings are located, has relatively higher
temperatures than other places. The two rivers (i.e. the
Scioto and the Olentangy) have lower temperatures.
4.2.2 The H/W (Height-to-Width) Ratio
Fig. 5 presents the H/W ratio pattern computed
according to the four directions over the study area.
The H/W ratio in the central district is generally higher
than in other areas, which confirms that increasing
vegetation-covered areas, while orange cells represent
non-vegetated areas. In addition, red cells characterize
the rivers. Lack of vegetation is prominent in the CBD.
With this exception, there are many vegetation-covered
residential areas and parks.
4.2.5 Building Energy Consumption
The building energy consumption map illustrates the
spatial distribution of energy consumption, which is
higher in the central district, because of building size
and type (Fig. 8). Building sizes in commercial areas
are usually much larger than in residential areas. In
addition, buildings used for commercial purposes
consume more energy to operate their equipment
throughout the day.
5. Model Estimation and Results
5.1 Research Approach
Four regression analysis models are considered
Unit: Celsius
High : 39.8132
0 0.5 1 2 Miles
Low : 15.5761

building density results in an increasing H/W ratio

Fig. 4 Surface temperature on July 6, 2007.
(building height increases and street width between
buildings narrows). Buildings with larger footprints
have larger H/W ratios.
4.2.3 Sky View Factor: SVF
The SVFs close to high-rise building sites have low
values, while spacious sites have higher SVFs (see Fig. 6).
The minimum SVF is 0.02 in the CBD, which suggests
that the sky is not much visible there. The maximum
SVF is 1. Except in the CBD, the sky can be observed High : 59.8867

in most places. Low : 0.000459

4.2.4 NDVI 0 0.5 1 2 Miles

Fig. 7 displays the NDVI over the study area after Fig. 5 H/W ratio.
372 Two- and Three-Dimensional Urban Core Determinants of the Urban Heat Island:
A Statistical Approach

5.2 Multi-Scale Grid Indices

Multi-scale grids are used to estimate statistical

models of the UHI. The use of grids reflects the
geographical variations of urban temperatures and
other parameters. The temperature grid data set is
created by averaging temperatures over each grid unit.
High : 1
All other parameters are averaged out or computed
over each grid unit. The size of a grid unit depends on
Low : 0.0198759
0 0.5 1 2 Miles
the spatial resolution of the thermal band of Landsat
Fig. 6 Sky view factor. TM. It should be bigger than, or equal to the resolution
(120 m). Four different scales are considered: 480 m,
360 m, 240 m and 120 m.

5.3 Simple Regression Models

Simple linear and non-linear regression models are

first estimated to investigate the relationships between
dependent and independent variables across the scales.
High : 9.87071e+010 The dependent variable is the surface temperature
Low : 5.83142e+007
captured by Landsat TM, and the independent
0 0.5 1 2 Miles
variables are related to building geometry, street
Fig. 8 Building energe consumption. canyon, anthropogenic heat, and land cover. The
linear model is expressed as:
T = a0 + a1X (14)
where, X is any of the possible independent variables.
The non-linear model is:
T = a0 + a1Xb (15)
where, b is the estimated exponent of X, using the
Boxtid-Well transformation.
High : 0.808917
The results are presented in Table 3. Most of the
Low : -0.857143
independent variables are statistically significant at the
0 0.5 1 2 Miles

0.05 level. The non-linear estimates are significant at

Fig. 7 NDVI.
(simple linear, simple non-linear, multiple linear, and
multiple non-linear) to explain variations in the UHI,
using relevant 2-D and 3-D geometric characteristics,
NDVI, and anthropogenic heat data. In the case of
non-linear models, the Boxtid-Well transformation is
used [40]. The general surface temperature model is:
T = f(urban geometric characteristics, land use,
energy consumption) (13)
the 0.01 level. However, compactness is not
statistically significant with the 240 m and 120 m
grids. The results are sensitive to grid size. Smaller
grids generally yield smaller R2. As expected, porosity
and SVF have negative impacts on surface
temperature. Increases in porosity and SVF induce
more open space, which enhances active air and wind
circulation. This phenomenon plays a role in
decreasing surface temperature. In contrast, the HW
 Two- and Three-Dimensional Urban Core Determinants of the Urban Heat Island: 373
A Statistical Approach

Table 3 Simple linear and non-linear regressions models of the UHI.

480 m 360 m
Linear Non-linear Linear Non-linear
Variable a1 R2 a1 b R2 a1 R2 a1 b R2
0.0001328*** -17.29166*** 0.0001983*** -17.08256***
Building height 0.09 -0.3026215 0.24 0.07 -0.3976742 0.20
(4.47) (-7.87) (4.97) (-9.37)
6.07 × 10-6*** 0.0126114*** 0.0000102*** 0.0088066***
Building ground floor 0.50 0.4602734 0.54 0.47 0.49841 0.50
(13.87) (15.12) (17.69) (19.00)
1.75 × 10-8*** -63.00753*** 3.00 × 10-8*** 14.99109***
Building volume 0.12 -0.0239318 0.42 0.10 0.0357036 0.39
(5.02) (-11.87) (6.19) (15.17)
9.79 × 10-7*** 4.946351*** 1.70 × 10-6*** 2.097504***
Building surface 0.29 0.0818844 0.44 0.26 0.1168406 0.39
(8.96) (12.24) (11.22) (14.92)
0.005594*** -2.893355*** 0.0043758** -1.245084***
Compactness 0.04 -0.2050423 0.13 0.01 -0.4541088 0.12
(2.84) (-5.38) (2.19) (-7.05)
3.56 × 10-11*** -73.63539*** 1.87 × 10-8*** 28.47817***
Weighted compactness 0.05 -0.1417488 0.31 0.08 0.0223297 0.39
(3.27) (-9.38) (5.53) (14.99)
Volumetrically averaged 0.0068604*** -5173.087*** 0.003679** -293.0569***
0.06 -2.548263 0.12 0.02 -1.696774 0.11
building height (3.37) (-5.16) (2.38) (-6.51)
-21.20388*** -5.092021*** -18.33533*** -4.811193***
Porosity 0.28 20.35175 0.39 0.28 15.98946 0.39
(-8.67) (-11.19) (-11.66) (-15.12)
0.0005317*** -36.44082*** 0.0009073*** -31.67697***
Total HW 0.20 -0.2676678 0.41 0.17 -0.2765505 0.38
(7.02) (-11.63) (8.46) (-14.63)
15.05202*** 11.06522*** 14.26803*** 10.17461***
PSA 0.50 0.4602737 0.54 0.47 0.4984413 0.50
(13.87) (15.12) (17.69) (19.00)
-8.215797*** -7.76747*** -14.03121***
NDVI 0.25 0.23 1.822336 0.23
(-7.96) (-10.27) (-10.21)
-0.1048918*** -0.0004308*** -0.1804727*** -3.08 × 10-6***
Total SVF 0.41 2.226035 0.42 0.40 3.804404 0.43
(-11.57) (-11.84) (-15.26) (-16.33)
2.24 × 10-12*** -259.1208*** 3.15 × 10-12*** -117.8586***
Total electricity 0.16 -0.0046811 0.35 0.15 -0.0342812 0.33
(6.14) (-10.28) (7.95) (-13.21)
1.70 × 10-11*** 0.6607127*** 2.33 × 10-11*** .8533476***
Total natural gas 0.23 0.1181899 0.44 0.20 0.107849 0.39
(7.69) (12.35) (9.52) (15.06)
3.28 × 10-11*** -127.6621*** 5.00 × 10-11*** -77.75244***
Total fuel oil 0.11 -0.1452388 0.30 0.09 -0.1279669 0.24
(4.98) (-9.14) (5.77) (-10.50)

240 m 120 m
Linear Non-linear Linear Non-linear
Variable a1 R2 a1 b R2 a1 R2 a1 b R2
0.0003226*** -12.16539*** 0.0001106 -29.296***
Building height 0.04 -0.4223598 0.16 0.00 -1.004895 0.06
(5.42) (-11.94) (1.03) (-12.62)
0.00002*** 0.0035075*** 0.0000444*** 0.0116799***
Building ground floor 0.41 0.5920795 0.44 0.20 0.5206806 0.23
(22.77) (23.99) (25.91) (27.66)
5.23× 10-8*** 1.167489*** 1.23 × 10-7*** 1.612951***
Building volume 0.09 0.1195198 0.34 0.05 0.100405 0.20
(8.26) (19.26) (11.29) (25.49)
2.81 × 10-6*** 0.4956189*** 5.33 × 10-6*** 3.136882***
Building surface 0.19 0.1907941 0.31 0.07 0.0857844 0.15
(13.06) (18.22) (14.48) (21.44)
0.0010206 -0.8043632*** 0.0000623 5.53 × 10-9***
Compactness 0.00 -0.4225688 0.09 0.00 -4.993354 0.01
(0.81) (-8.30) (0.06) (5.41)
1.33 × 10-10*** 0.0051521*** 4.18 × 10-10*** 14.24384***
Weighted compactness 0.04 0.0296615 0.19 0.02 0.0219268 0.21
(5.27) (13.26) (6.89) (26.27)
Volumetrically averaged 0.0051838*** -35.55449*** 0.0063116*** -27.70983***
0.03 -0.9650641 0.11 0.02 -0.8929598 0.08
building height (4.34) (-9.43) (6.41) (-15.24)
-14.2683*** -4.645788*** -6.987678*** -3.648015***
Porosity 0.27 10.46773 0.36 0.16 6.154658 0.22
(-16.66) (-20.10) (-22.34) (-26.75)
0.0016171*** -22.4099*** 0.0034657*** -16.02552***
Total HW 0.12 -0.2545569 0.30 0.05 -0.3917318 0.17
(10.14) (-17.82) (11.15) (-22.88)
12.39196*** 9.430806*** 6.886799*** 5.887678***
PSA 0.41 0.5920796 0.44 0.20 0.5206805 0.23
(22.77) (23.99) (25.91) (27.66)
-7.93865*** -13.79961*** -7.685022*** -11.32777***
NDVI 0.27 1.799268 0.28 0.32 1.56891 0.31
(-16.34) (-16.38) (-34.83) (-32.75)
-0.3216943*** -0.095454*** -0.5534829*** -0.7533559***
Total SVF 0.27 1.370758 0.27 0.09 0.8508432 0.09
(-16.59) (-16.65) (-16.50) (-16.53)
3.87 × 10-12*** -49.47848*** 5.30 × 10-12*** -292.1245***
Total electricity 0.10 -0.0433559 0.28 0.07 -0.1905105 0.24
(8.80) (-16.95) (14.28) (-28.87)
2.86 × 10-11*** 2.065506*** 3.61 × 10-11*** -56.28539***
Total natural gas 0.13 0.0764977 0.31 0.08 -0.0833911 0.23
(10.29) (18.01) (15.18) (-27.60)
8.15 × 10-11*** -88.41695*** 9.85 × 10-11*** -55090.1***
Total Fuel oil 0.06 -0.160537 0.19 0.01 -0.5844597 0.07
(6.69) (-12.94) (5.61) (-15.74)
Dependent var. = surface temperature. *P < 0.1; ** P < 0.05; *** P < 0.01.
374 Two- and Three-Dimensional Urban Core Determinants of the Urban Heat Island:
A Statistical Approach

Table 4 Multiple linear and non-linear regressions with the 480 m grid.
Linear Non-linear
Category Variable
 t-value  t-value Exponent
3D building geometry Compactness 0.005*** 2.86 30.224*** 6.30 0.013
3D building density Porosity -4.932* -1.89 -1.176** -2.13 18.787
2D surface characteristics NDVI -6.643*** -6.14 -7.017*** -6.21 1
3D spatial openness Total SVF -0.066*** -5.40 -0.0269** -2.37 1
Total electricity 0* -0.64 0.001* 1.95 0.257
Constant 39.069 17.74 0.767 1.95
Energy consumption F(5, 189) 44.19 63.87
R-squared 0.54 0.63
# of Obs. 195 195
Dependent var. = surface temperature; *P < 0.1; ** P < 0.05; *** P < 0.01.

ratio has a positive impact on surface temperature.
Narrow spaces between high buildings obstruct wind
flows around them, and therefore an increase in the
HW ratio tends to increase the intensity of the UHI.
Building size is highly positively correlated with
surface temperature in the linear model. Weighted
compactness better explains the UHI than
compactness in the linear models. In addition,
increasing energy consumption leads to increasing
surface temperatures, although this effect is weak.
However, unexpected signs are obtained with
non-linear regression models across all grid sizes in
the case of building height. In addition, several
independent variables (i.e. building volume,
compactness, and volumetrically averaged building
height) have also unexpected effects. In general, the
R2 of porosity, HW ratio, and SVF are relatively higher
than for other variables, which suggests that open
space in built environments may be a critical factor for
UHI mitigation. Higher energy consumption increases
surface temperature in the linear models. The impact
depends on the size of the grid. The smaller the grid
size the lower the R2 for the energy consumption
models.
5.4 Multiple Regression Models
Multiple regression models are used to explain the
relationship between surface temperature and several
variables. Correlation matrices are generated and
analyzed to reduce multi-collinearity problems.
Variables having low correlations (less than 0.7)
with others are selected to estimate the models
[41].
In order to efficiently estimate comprehensive
models, the independent variables are grouped into
five categories: 3D building geometry, 3D building
density, 3D spatial openness, 2D surface
characteristics, and energy consumption. Variables
having a small number of shaded correlation
coefficients are selected to develop multiple
regression models.
Tables 4-7 present the estimation results for the
multiple regression models over the four grids. Most
of the independent variables are statistically
significant at the 0.1 level. For 3-D building geometry,
compactness is predominantly used to estimate the
models. Simple regression models indicate that
weighted compactness yields higher R2 than
compactness, as Unger [4] found. However,
compactness was more useful in multiple regression
models. With the 240 m grid, building height is
representative of 3-D building geometry. For 3-D
spatial openness, total SVF is negatively associated
with surface temperature, while the total HW ratio is
positively related to it. As expected, more spatial
openness is a way to mitigate the UHI. The
coefficients of total electricity have negative signs.
Porosity and NDVI strongly affect the UHI.
The non-linear models using the Boxtid-Well
transformation have higher R2 than the linear models.
 Two- and Three-Dimensional Urban Core Determinants of the Urban Heat Island: 375
A Statistical Approach

Table 5 Multiple linear and non-linear regressions with the 360 m grid.
Linear Non-linear
Category Variable
 t-value  t-value Exponent
3D building geometry Compactness 0.006*** 3.49 -1.773*** -7.13 -0.271
3D building density Porosity -11.574*** -7.06 -2.326** -6.03 11.487
2D surface characteristics NDVI -6.849*** -7.57 -7.442*** -10.52 1
3D spatial openness Total HW 0.001*** 2.95 0.024*** 2.64*** 0.501
Total electricity 0* -1.95 0* -2.72 4.451
Constant 41.798*** 27.42 33.143*** 66.94
Energy consumption F(5, 189) 51.75 96.59
R-squared 0.43 0.58
# of Obs. 356 356
Dependent var. = surface temperature; *P < 0.1; ** P < 0.05; *** P < 0.01.

Table 6 Multiple linear and non-linear regressions with the 240 m grid.
Linear Non-linear
Category Variable
 t-value  t-value Exponent
3D building geometry Building height 0*** 4.63 -46.252*** -6.78 -0.007
3D building density Porosity -6.409*** -6.43 -1.878*** -6.18 11.419
2D surface characteristics NDVI -0.122*** -13.87 -6.619*** -13.93 1
3D spatial openness Total SVF -0.110*** -3.60 4.059* 1.66 -0.905
Total electricity 0* -3.69 0*** 4.43 3.444
Constant 38.800*** 48.16 76.006*** 11.57
Energy consumption F(5, 728) 131.79 160.89
R-squared 0.48 0.58
# of Obs. 734 587
Dependent var. = surface temperature; *P < 0.1; ** P < 0.05; *** P < 0.01.

Table 7 Multiple linear and non-linear regressions with the 120 m grid.
Linear Non-linear
Category Variable
 t-value  t-value Exponent
3D building geometry Compactness 0.002** 2.27 -0.677*** -13.56 -0.332
3D building density Porosity -3.280*** -9.20 -1.725*** -12.00 10.399
2D surface characteristics NDVI -6.922*** -28.52 -7.170*** -28.24 1
3D spatial openness Total SVF -0.238*** -7.34 0.012 0.39 -31.486
Total electricity 0* -5.28 -23.041*** -5.71 -0.122
Constant 35.661*** 122.36 34.651*** 162.64
Energy consumption F(5, 189) 311.48 442.22
R-squared 0.37 0.46
# of Obs. 2616 2616
Dependent var. = surface temperature; *P < 0.1; ** P < 0.05; *** P < 0.01.

An elasticity analysis has been also carried out to better
understand the impacts of the independent variables.
The elasticity ε is defined as the ratio of the percentage
change in the dependent variable to a 1-percent change
in the independent variable (Table 8).
In all cases, porosity strongly affects surface
temperature, which decreases by 1.8%, 3.4%, 2.2%,
and 1.3% for a 10-percent increase in porosity. Urban
plans that consider extending open spaces and
restricting the building-to-land ratio can mitigate the
UHI by increasing porosity, although it is difficult to
increase open spaces in highly developed urban
376 Two- and Three-Dimensional Urban Core Determinants of the Urban Heat Island:
A Statistical Approach

Table 8 Elasticities in the case of the linear and the non-linear models over the four grids.
480 m grid 360 m grid 240 m grid 120 m grid
Variable
Linear Non-linear Linear Non-linear Linear Non-linear Linear Non-linear
Compactness 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0 0
Building height 0 0.01
Porosity -0.15 -0.18 -0.35 -0.34 -0.19 -0.22 -0.09 -0.13
Total SVF -0.10 -0.04 -0.04 -0.01 -0.02 0
Total H/W ratio 0.02 0.01
NDVI -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05 -0.01 -0.05 -0.05 -0.05
Electricity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

environments. Another variable with the potential for 6. Conclusions

decreasing surface temperature is the NDVI. Its
elasticity is around -0.05. Vegetative cover not only
enhances recreation amenities but also decreases
surface temperature in dense urban centers.
Compactness obtained by minimizing building
surface area is positively related to surface temperature.
An increase in building surface leads to higher
temperature because buildings emit at nighttime
thermal energy stored by the building surfaces during
daytime. Surface temperature increases by around 0.01
percent for a 1-percent increase in compactness (except
for the smaller grids). An increasing total H/W ratio in
the 360 m grid leads to increasing surface temperatures.
Dense high-rise buildings obstruct air and wind flows,
and the accumulation of heat energy enhances the UHI.
Electricity, representing energy consumption, has a
positive, but very small, impact on surface temperature.
In summary, 3-D spatial openness measured by
porosity and vegetative cover are the most prominent
features that can help mitigate the UHI. The results
suggest that open spaces need to be increased to
enhance air and wind flows, and that more vegetative
cover be developed around built environments. In
particular, open spaces effectively minimize UHI
effects because they lead to higher porosity and a
large amount of vegetative cover. However, green
building can be an alternative in existing urban sites.
First, it is possible to reduce the UHI if buildings are
covered with vegetation on walls or roofs. Second,
minimizing building surface with low albedo may be
another way to reduce the UHI.
This research has presented statistical models
explaining UHI effects by using not only 2-D surface
characteristics, but also 3-D urban geometric
characteristics derived with LiDAR data and GIS
building footprints. Both linear and non-linear
regression models have been used to investigate the
relationships between surface temperature and the
explanatory variables. In particular, the Boxtid-Well
transformation was applied to develop non-linear
models.
In the case of the simple regression models, most
coefficients reflect the expected influence on surface
temperature. First, the variables related to 3-D building
geometry tend to increase temperature. The R2 varies
between 0.06 and 0.44. Among 3-D building geometry
variables, a building ground floor and its surface have
strong impacts on temperature. Second, energy
consumption also has a positive effect on the UHI, but
this effect is small. Third, higher SVF, porosity, and
NDVI play a role in decreasing surface temperature.
In the case of the multiple regression models, the
focus has been on non-linear estimation. A
representative variable is drawn from five categories of
surface characteristics, using correlations to reduce
collinearity problems. The multiple regression models
explain about 50% of the variability in temperatures.
Porosity and NDVI are the most important features to
mitigate the UHI. The results provide guidelines for
environmental policy. Developing green open spaces
and constructing building roof gardens and vertical
 Two- and Three-Dimensional Urban Core Determinants of the Urban Heat Island:
A Statistical Approach
garden covering building walls would be effective to
reduce the UHI.
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Formerly part of Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, ISSN 1934-8932
D DAVID PUBLISHING

An Operational Hydro-Meteorological Chain

to Evaluate the Uncertainty in Runoff
Forecasting over the Verbano Basin

Alessandro Ceppi1, Giovanni Ravazzani1, Davide Rabuffetti2 and Marco Mancini1

1. Department of Hydraulic, Environmental, Roads and Surveying Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milano 20133, Italy
2. Regional Environment Protection Agency of Piedmont, Torino 10135, Italy

Received: August 4, 2011 / Accepted: October 24, 2011 / Published: March 20, 2012.

Abstract: The development and implementation of a real-time flood forecasting system with a hydro-meteorological operational
alert procedure during the MAP-D-PHASE Project is described in this paper. This chain includes both probabilistic and deterministic
forecasts. The hydrological model used to generate the runoff simulations is the rainfall-runoff distributed FEST-WB model,
developed at Politecnico di Milano. The observed data to run the control simulations were supplied by ARPA-Piemonte. The analysis
is focused on Maggiore Lake basin, an Alpine basin between North-West of Italy and Southern Switzerland. Two hindcasts during
the D-PHASE period are discussed in order to evaluate certain effects regarding discharge forecasts due to hydro-meteorological
sources of uncertainties. In particular, in the June convective event it is analysed how the effect of meteorological model spatial
resolution can influence the discharge forecasts over mountain basins, while in the November stratiform event how the effect of the
initial conditions of soil moisture can modify meteorological warnings. The study shows how the introduction of alert codes appears to
be useful for decision makers to give them a spread of forecasted QDFs with the probability of event occurrence, but also how alert
warnings issued on the basis of forecasted precipitation only are not always reliable.

Key words: Hydro-meteorological chain, MAP-D-PHASE, quantitative discharge forecasts, ensemble hydrological forecasts.

1. Introduction alert system) to provide medium-range flood

simulations across Europe [3, 4]. Other international
Over the last 20 years severe river floods have
programmes dealing with these topics were HEPEX in
occurred in Europe, causing thousands of deaths and
2004, which aimed at fostering the development of
billion of Euros in insured economic losses [1].
probabilistic hydrological forecasting and
Weather forecasts, combined with hydrological models,
corresponding decision making tools [5, 6],
can be used to define early water-system control
AMPHORE (Application des Methodologies de
actions to take preventive measures or reduce problems
Previsions Hydrometeorologiques Orientees aux
with floods, droughts or water quality [2]. Therefore,
Risques Environnementaux), a continuation of
coupling meteorological and hydrological models
HYDROPTIMET [7], mainly devoted to the
became a great issue and challenge in the scientific
hydro-meteorological modelling study of heavy
community during the last two decades.
precipitation episodes resulting in floods event and the
To diminish the impact of floods through an early
optimisation of the existing warning system in the
warning system, in 2003 the European Commission
Western Mediterranean Basin [8, 9], RAPHAEL
started the development of a EFAS (European flood
(Runoff and Atmospheric Process for Flood hazard

Corresponding author: Alessandro Ceppi, Ph.D., main Forecasting and Control) [10], and the European COST
research fields: hydro-meteorology, environmental monitoring. Action 731 (propagation of uncertainty in advanced
E-mail: alessandro.ceppi@mail.polimi.it.
380 An Operational Hydro-Meteorological Chain to Evaluate the Uncertainty in Runoff
Forecasting over the Verbano Basin
meteo-hydrological forecast system) [11, 12].
The idea of a forecasting cascade was also one of the
scientific objectives of the MAP (Mesoscale Alpine
Programme) between 1994 and 2005. A unique
initiative to improve the understanding of the processes
involved in orographically induced precipitation events
and the improvements of the high-resolution numerical
weather prediction [13, 14].
After these encouraging results obtained in the MAP
Project and considering that orographic precipitation
has often led to disastrous flooding events over the
Alps, it was decided to devote the MAP FDP (Forecast
Demonstration Project) to show recent improvements
in the operational use of an “end-to-end” forecasting
system, consisting of atmospheric models,
hydrological prediction systems, nowcasting tools and
warnings for end users. The project acronym chosen
was D-PHASE that stands for Demonstration of
Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric
Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region and is
a FDP (Forecast Demonstration Project) of the
WWRP (World Weather Research Programme of
WMO). The MAP FDP has addressed the entire
forecasting chain, ranging from limited-area ensemble
forecasting, high-resolution atmospheric modelling
(km-scale), hydrological modelling and nowcasting to
decision making by the end users, i.e., it is foreseen to
set up an end-to-end forecasting system. For a
complete review see Refs. [15-18].
The use of EPS (ensemble prediction systems),
instead of single (deterministic) forecasts for flood
warning [19], is increasing among the hydrological
community in order to quantify better the uncertainty
of flood prediction. From the hydrological perspective
using EPS as input to a hydrological model it is an
important tool to produce river discharge predictions
[20-22] and to assess uncertainty involved in
forecasting precipitation [23, 24].
In this study it presents a hindcast for two different
types of precipitation events that occurred during the
D-PHASE Operational Period (DOP), from 1 June to
30 November 2007, in the Verbano basin in order to
evaluate certain effects regarding discharge forecasts
due to hydro-meteorological sources of uncertainties.
Two non-hydrostatic meteorological limited area
models are used to force the distributed hydrological
model (FEST-WB): one with a coarse spatial
resolution, supported by the EPS (COSMO-LEPS
system based on COSMO model) and the other with a
finer grid, but with one deterministic output only
(MOLOCH model).
The paper is organized as follows: in both events
there is a meteorological introduction of the actual
weather scenario, followed by hydrological forecast
analyses over the watersheds. In the June convective
event, it has been studied how the effect of
meteorological model spatial resolution can influence
the discharge forecasts over mountain basins (and
subbasins), while in the November stratiform event
how the effect of the initial conditions of soil moisture
can modify meteorological warnings.
2. Area of Study
The subject area is the Verbano basin, also known as
Maggiore, a regulated lake at the border between
North-West Italy and South Switzerland. The drainage
area covers 6,598 km2: 3,229 km2 in Italy and 3,369
km2 in Switzerland. The study focuses on the three
main rivers: the Ticino (1,616 km2), the Toce (1,534
km2) and the Maggia (926 km2) (Fig. 1).
Nearly 17% of the total area is above 2,000 m a.s.l.
Climate conditions are typically humid, characterized
by higher precipitations in autumn, spring and summer
with a dry season in winter [25]. Snowfall characterizes
precipitation in autumn and winter and snow melting in
spring gives a significant contribution to runoff.
Climatic characteristics, together with morphology and
soil texture, induce frequent flood events (1993, 1994,
1996, 2000 and 2002).
Three threshold levels were defined in the
framework of the MAP-D-PHASE project to issue
meteorological and hydrological warnings for the three
 An Operational Hydro-Meteorological Chain to Evaluate the Uncertainty in Runoff 381
Forecasting over the Verbano Basin

Fig. 1 The Verbano watershed, extracted from the DEM (digital elevation model) showing locations of the rain gauges,
thermometers and hydrometric stations.

main river basins: a “yellow-attention” level when estimated on the basis of at-site statistics of runoff
60-day return period was exceeded, an “orange-alert” peaks or from the rational formula. Of course, in
level when 180-day return period was exceeded and operational forecasting levels are usually higher (with
“red-alarm” level when 10-year return period was return periods of 10 year and more), but low thresholds
exceeded. Rainfall thresholds were estimated for each were chosen in this project in order to see some action
basin for six durations, ranging from 3 to 72 hours on on the maps during the very short demonstration phase.
the basis of statistics of daily precipitation over the Rainfall and discharge thresholds for the three studied
Alps and scaling assumptions with respect to storm river basins are reported in Table 1 and Table 2,
duration and area. Flood peak thresholds were respectively.
Table 1 Rainfall thresholds (in millimetres of rain) of the meteorological warnings for six durations from 3 to 72 hours.
Warning level (WL)  03 h  06 h  12 h  24 h  48 h  72 h
River Toce at Candoglia
Yellow-attention 10.9 15.5 22.4 31.9 42.3 49.8
Orange-alert 24.6 35.2 50.7 72.4 96.1 113.3
Red-alarm 56.2 80.5 116.0 165.7 220.1 259.4
River Ticino at Bellinzona
Yellow-attention 15.3 22.0 31.5 44.8 59.6 70.2
Orange-alert 27.4 39.4 56.4 80.4 106.8 125.9
Red-alarm 55.2 79.4 113.8 162.2 215.6 254.1
River Maggia at Solduno
Yellow-attention 17.0 24.4 34.8 49.2 65.1 76.6
Orange-alert 34.0 48.7 69.4 98.1 129.8 152.7
Red-alarm 73.0 104.7 149.1 210.8 278.9 328.0
382 An Operational Hydro-Meteorological Chain to Evaluate the Uncertainty in Runoff
Forecasting over the Verbano Basin
Table 2 Flood peak thresholds in (m3·s-1) for the three river basins investigated.
Warning level (WL) Toce
Yellow-attention 306
Orange-alert 694
Red-alarm 1588
Available digital cartographic data include: the DEM
(digital elevation model) available in raster format at
100 m × 100 m resolution, CORINE land cover maps
updated in the year 2000, and pedologic characteristics
for soils available in vector format [26, 27]. From these
basic thematic layers, basin parameters required for the
application of the hydrological model, have been
derived at a spatial resolution of 1,000 m × 1,000 m.
These include: Curve Number [28], flow direction,
slope and aspect, residual and saturated soil moisture,
albedo, pore size distribution index, saturated hydraulic
conductivity, wilting point, field capacity and soil
depth.
3. Hydrologic and Meteorological Data
To calibrate and test the hydrological model
FEST-WB meteorological and hydrologic ground
measured data were collected by the telemetric
monitoring system in Italy and Switzerland. Records of
rainfall, air temperature, short wave solar radiation and
air relative humidity are available at hourly or
sub-hourly time steps. Hydrometric observations at 30
minutes time step are available at Candoglia, Solduno
and Bellinzona gauging stations (rivers Toce, Maggia
and Ticino respectively, see Fig. 1). All these data were
accessible for the time period from 1 January 2000 to
31 December 2003; for a complete review about the
FEST-WB hydrological model calibration the reader
can refer to Ref. [9].
During the MAP-DPHASE period, ground measured
meteorological forcings were used for the
hydrological model initialization, before being forced
by forecasted meteorological fields to predict river
discharge, for more details, see section 4 “Coupling
strategy”.
Ticino Maggia
269 234
584 884
1320 2959
3.1 Meteorological Models
The hydro-meteorological chain includes both
probabilistic forecasts based on ensemble prediction
systems with a lead time of a few days and short-range
forecasts based on a high resolution deterministic
atmospheric model, in order to predict the QDF
(quantitative discharge forecast). The probabilistic
forecast was supplied by COSMO-LEPS model
(Consortium for Small-scale Modelling–Limited area
Ensemble Prediction System), implemented and
developed by A.R.P.A. Emilia-Romagna in the
framework of COSMO Consortium [29, 30]. The
spatial resolution is 10 km (0.09°), while the temporal
resolution is 3 h, with 40 vertical levels, 16 ensemble
members, nested on ECMWF EPS (European Centre
for Medium Range Forecast-Ensemble Prediction
System) and 132 h as lead-time; the run starts every
day at 12:00 UTC, while the hydrological simulation
begins 12 hours later at 00:00 UTC, so 120 hours of
hydrological simulation are available.
The deterministic forecast was supplied by
MOLOCH model (MOdello LOCale in “H” coordinate)
of I.S.A.C.-C.N.R. in Bologna, Italy [31]. The model
chain comprises the hydrostatic model BOLAM and
the non-hydrostatic model MOLOCH, nested in
BOLAM. The BOLAM model has a horizontal grid
spacing of 0.11° in rotated coordinates (about 12 km),
with 50 levels and a parameterization (Kain-Fritsch) of
moist convection. On the contrary, the MOLOCH
model has a horizontal grid spacing of 0.02°,
corresponding to about 2.3 km, with 50 levels; moist
deep convection is computed explicitly. The
forecasting chain is based on the 18:00 UTC, ECMWF
analysis/forecasts at 0.25° resolution; BOLAM run
starts at 18:00 UTC, MOLOCH is nested at 00:00 UTC,
 An Operational Hydro-Meteorological Chain to Evaluate the Uncertainty in Runoff 383
Forecasting over the Verbano Basin

the same time as the hydrological simulation.
The different spatial resolution used by the two
weather models over the Maggiore basin is shown in
Fig. 2: the COSMO-LEPS model, with a spatial
resolution of 10 km, which covers the Toce basin
(1,534 km2) with 15 squares, on the contrary, the
high-resolution MOLOCH model, with a spatial grid of
2.3 km, which fills the Toce basin with 317 squares.
3.2 Hydrological Model
Hydrological simulations were performed using the
FEST-WB distributed water balance model [9, 32-34].
FEST-WB calculates the main processes of the
hydrological cycle: evapotranspiration, infiltration,
surface runoff, flow routing, subsurface flow and snow
dynamics. The computational domain is discretized
with a mesh of regular square cells (1 km in this
application), in which water fluxes are calculated at
hourly time intervals.
Five main components can be identified in the
FEST-WB model:
(1) the flow paths and channel network definition;
(2) the spatialization of site measured meteorological
forcings;
(3) the snow pack dynamics;
(4) the runoff calculation;
(5) the overland and subsurface flow routing.
In the first component the flow path network is
automatically derived from the digital elevation model
using a least-cost path algorithm [35]. It assigns flow
from each pixel to one of its eight neighbours, without
the necessity to remove pits in the elevation data. For
hillslope and channel network definition the model
uses the constant minimum support area concept. It
consists of selecting a constant critical support area that
defines the minimum drainage area required to initiate
a channel [36].
In the second component, the spatial interpolation of
ground measured meteorological forcings is carried out.
The model requires precipitation, air temperature, air
relative humidity, and net solar radiation, sum of short
wave and long wave components.
The observed data at ground stations are interpolated
with a regular grid, using the inverse distance
weighting (IDW) technique. In order to facilitate
integration with meteorological models, the FEST-WB
can also accept spatial gridded meteorological as input.
The third component deals with snow dynamics
simulation. The snow module of the FEST-WB
includes snow melt and snow accumulation dynamics.
In the FEST-WB model the partitioning of total
precipitation, P, in liquid, Pl, and solid, Ps, phase is a
function of air temperature, Ta [37]:
Pl   P P (1)
Ps  (1   P )P (2)

Fig. 2 Different spatial resolutions used by the two weather models over the Verbano basin: COSMO-LEPS, 10 km (left) and
the MOLOCH model, 2.3 km (right). A temperature field on 27 November 2007 is shown in Celsius degrees.
384 An Operational Hydro-Meteorological Chain to Evaluate the Uncertainty in Runoff
Forecasting over the Verbano Basin

where αP is calculated as follows:
 dry (AMC 1) and  is obtained using following
0 if Ta  Tlow

 p  1 if Ta  Tup
 Ta  Tlow
 if Tlow  Ta  Tup
Tup  Tlow
where Tlow and Tsup are air temperatures below or above
which precipitation falls as snow or rain, respectively
[38].
The snow melt simulation is based on the degree day
concept [39]. The melting rate in m·s-1, Ms, is
proportional to the difference between air temperature
and a predefined threshold temperature, Tb:
C m (Ta  Tb ) if Ta  Tb
Ms  
0 if Ta  Tb
where Cm (m·°C-1·s-1) is an empirical coefficient,
depending on meteorological conditions and
geographic location; generally Cm coefficient ranges
from 4.8 × 10-8 to 6.9 × 10-8 m·°C-1·s-1.
The predefined temperature Tb fixes a threshold
beyond which snow starts melting, and its value is
usually assumed to be equal to 0 °C; Tb and Cm are
calibrated values of the model.
The terrain covered by snow is supposed to be frozen
and hence the melted water is prevented from
infiltrating the soil. Conversely, the liquid fraction of
snow water equivalent, Rs, the sum of melted water and
liquid precipitation, is supposed to flow cell by cell
through the snow pack with a linear reservoir routing
scheme [40] with a celerity of 1.67 × 10-3 m·s-1 [41].
When Rs reaches a cell not covered by snow, it is added
to the liquid precipitation of that cell, becoming part of
the infiltrable water.
In the fourth component, the runoff is computed for
each elementary cell, according to a modified SCS-CN
method extended for continuous simulation [33].
The potential maximum retention, S, is updated cell
by cell at the beginning of rainfall as a linear function
of the degree of saturation, 
S  S 1 (1   )
where S1 is the maximum value of S when the soil is
formula:
(3)
 t   res
 (6)
 sat   res
where t is explained in Eq. (7), sat is the saturation
soil moisture, while res is related to the residual soil
humidity. The dynamic of the soil moisture , for a cell
not covered by snow, is calculated using the following
water balance equation:

t

1
Z
Pl  R  D  ET  (7)
where R is surface runoff flux, D is drainage flux, ET is
evapotranspiration rate and Z is soil depth. Soil
(4)
moisture in cells covered by snow is assumed not to
vary over time.
The actual evapotranspiration, ET, is computed as a
fraction of the potential rate calibrated by a function
that, in turn, depends on soil moisture content [42].
Potential evapotranspiration is calculated with a
radiation-based equation [43].
The fifth component performs the runoff routing
throughout the hillslope and river network. The surface
flow routing, calculated for the cells that are not
covered by snow, is based on the Muskingum-Cunge
method in its non-linear form with time variable
celerity [32]. Subsurface flow routing, similar to the
method implemented for routing in the snow pack, is
calculated with a linear reservoir routing scheme [40]
with a celerity calculated as a function of soil saturated
conductivity.
The FEST-WB model can save state variables on the
file system at regular time intervals, permitting the
restart of a simulation from a previous condition. This
feature is used where a long simulation has to be
carried out at a different time, or to initialize the model
before carrying out a forecast run.
4. Coupling Strategy
(5) The hydro-meteorological chain was launched
 An Operational Hydro-Meteorological Chain to Evaluate the Uncertainty in Runoff
Forecasting over the Verbano Basin
automatically once a day during the DOP. The
hydrological model was initialized with a simulation
run forced with observed ground measured data. In
order to limit the frequency and the amount of data
transfer, the initialization run was directly launched by
ARPA Regione Piemonte which collected data coming
from the monitoring network. Only the updated state
variables of the hydrological model were subsequently
transferred to Politecnico di Milano to perform
forecasting run.
Meteorological data were received automatically
every day from two weather services: ARPA
Emilia-Romagna and ISAC-CNR in GRIB1 format.
The meteorological variables used from
COSMO-LEPS were: NSWRS (net short wave
radiation solar), NLWRS (net long wave radiation
solar), DPT (dew point temperature), TCDC (Total
ClouD Cover), APCP (Amount PreCiPitation) and
TPT2 (TemPeraTure at 2 m). Conversely, SPFH
(SPeciFic Humidity), TCDC (Total ClouD Cover),
GRAD (Global RadiAtioN), APCP (Amount
PreCiPitation), TPT2 (TemPeraTure at 2 m) and PRES
(local atmospheric PRESsure) were implemented from
MOLOCH model.
Discharge forecasts at hourly time step were
obtained by forcing meteorological forecasts in the
hydrological model. Meteorological forecasted fields
were downscaled to hydrological model spatial
resolution, using the simple nearest neighbour
re-sampling method.
The statistical analysis which describes the
capability of our simulation outcomes includes
common methods frequently found in literature [44].
The Box-Whisker plot is a graphic representation
which is useful for visualizing groups of numerical data
through “the five-number summary”. It sums up the
smallest observation (sample minimum), the lower
quartile (Q25), the median, the upper quartile (Q75)
and the largest observation (sample maximum).
The graphs reported in Figs. 3-5 showed the median
(white line), the mean (white rhombus), the 25th and
385
75th percentile (boxes), the minimum and maximum
value of the ensembles (bars-whisker). The results
shown in section 5, if the observed discharge value is
outside or inside the lower and upper box, it see an
under/overestimation or a good performance
respectively for the maximum forecasted discharge of
the 16 CLEPS ensembles during the events we
analysed.
Another similar index to understand an
under/overestimation of the forecasted discharge “Q” is
the QDF (quantitative discharge forecast) error. The
formula used is the following:
fct  Qobs
Q max max
QDFerror  max
(8)
Qobs
where:
Q max
fct = forecasted peak discharge;
max
Qobs = observed peak discharge;
Best score = 0.
5. Simulation Results over the Three River
Basins
5.1 The June 2007 Event: Effect of Model Spatial
Resolution
The June event (13-15 June 2007) was the most
severe and relevant during the DOP on the Maggiore
Lake basin. The synoptic analysis over Europe on 15
June 2007 showed a “cold drop” located South-West of
the British Isles, triggering moist flow from the
Mediterranean Sea towards the Alps and the Po Valley,
causing convective cells with associated thunderstorms
on the Lake Maggiore basin 95-110 millimetres fell in
three days (13, 14, 15 June) over the three basins
(Table 3), about 85-95 of them in only 24 hours
between 14 and 15 June.
This amount of rainfall yielded the following
measured peak discharges: 783.2 m3·s-1 observed at
Candoglia (orange warning), 941.7 m3·s-1 at Solduno
(orange warning) and 761.5 m3·s-1 at Bellinzona
(orange warning); however, these discharge values
caused no flood damage in the catchment areas.
386 An Operational Hydro-Meteorological Chain to Evaluate the Uncertainty in Runoff
Forecasting over the Verbano Basin

Table 3 Observed rainfall over the Lake Maggiore basins between 13-15 June 2007.
Day Toce Ticino Maggia
13 June 2007 4.9 7.4 6.9
14 June 2007 16.3 24.6 20.6
15 June 2007 68.2 72.7 82.1
Total precipitation (mm) 89.4 104.7 109.6

Before analysing the results, it is important to of forecasted cumulative precipitation between 14-15
highlight that since the precipitation forecast of the June, in comparison with the observed mean basin
CLEPS and MOLOCH models over the three values: in fact, there was an underestimation for the
Maggiore Lake basins showed some COSMO-LEPS model and an overestimation for the
under/overestimation errors during the event, better MOLOCH model (Table 4).
results in hydrological forecasts were obtained with the Because of this, the COSMO-LEPS issued a
meteorological run initialized on the 14 June (i.e. 24-48 meteorological and hydrological yellow warning, vice
hours before the main peak discharge on 15 June) as is versa the MOLOCH issued an orange warning (Table 5).
shown in the Bow-Whisker plots for all three basins The maximum observed discharge at Candoglia was
(Figs. 3-5). Thus, all the tables and figures shown 783.2 m3·s-1 (orange warning) on 15 June at 17:00 UTC,
regarding this June 2007 event, and related to the while the simulated maximum discharge by the
simulations driven by observed and meteorological FEST-WB forced with observed hydro-meteorological
model data, refer to the hydrological simulation data was 750 m3·s-1 at 20:00 UTC (Fig. 6); despite this
launched on 14 June 2007. delay in reaching the peak (Table 6), the hydrological
5.1.1 River Toce at Candoglia model achieved a good performance (Table 7), issuing
Over the Toce basin the two meteorological models the correct warning.
were characterized by an opposite behaviour in terms The response of the hydrological model was
Table 4 Relative errors of cumulated precipitation between 14 and 15 June for the ensemble median of the CLEPS and for
the deterministic run of the MOLOCH model in comparison with the observed mean basin values over the three catchments.
The CLEPS forecast was initialized on 13 June 2007 12:00 UTC, while the MOLOCH was initialized on 14 June 2007 00:00
UTC.
June 2007 event
River basin
CLEPS median MOLOCH
Toce -28% +20%
Ticino -30% -56%
Maggia -25% -24%

Table 5 Meteorological and hydrological warnings issued by the COSMO-LEPS and the MOLOCH model between 14 and 17
June over the three basins. The hydrological simulation run started on 14 June 2007 00:00 UTC and finished on 18 June 2007
00:00 UTC.
June 2007 event
River basin
CLEPS median MOLOCH
Toce yellow orange
Meteorological warning Ticino yellow green
Maggia yellow yellow
Toce yellow orange
Hydrological warning Ticino orange orange
Maggia orange orange
 An Operational Hydro-Meteorological Chain to Evaluate the Uncertainty in Runoff 387
Forecasting over the Verbano Basin

Fig. 3 The Box-Whisper plot (left) and the QDF error (right) for the forecasted peak discharge for 15 June on the Toce basin,
obtained with the FEST-WB model simulation forced with observed meteorological data (squares) and with the
COSMO-LEPS (boxes and whiskers) and MOLOCH (rhombus) model runs, started on 13, 14 and 15 June 2007.

Fig. 4 The Box-Whisper plot (left) and the QDF error (right) for the forecasted peak discharge on 15 June for the Ticino
basin, obtained with the FEST-WB model simulation forced with observed meteorological data (squares) and with
COSMO-LEPS (boxes and black whiskers) and MOLOCH (rhombus) model runs, started on 13, 14 and 15 June 2007.

Fig. 5 Box-Whisper plot (left) and QDF error (right) for the forecasted peak discharge on 15 June for the Maggia basin,
obtained with the FEST-WB model simulation forced with observed meteorological data (squares) and with COSMO-LEPS
(boxes and black whiskers) and MOLOCH (rhombus) model runs, initialized on 13, 14 and 15 June 2007.
388 An Operational Hydro-Meteorological Chain to Evaluate the Uncertainty in Runoff
Forecasting over the Verbano Basin

Fig. 6 QPFs and QDFs of the FEST-WB model forced with observed meteorological data and with the CLEPS and
MOLOCH model forecast over the Toce basin. The hydrological simulation driven by the two meteorological model was
launched on 14 June 2007 00:00 UTC. The discharge value of each ensemble forecast is shown with different coloured lines.

Table 6 Time lag errors of peak discharges on 15 June for the FEST-WB hydrological simulation driven by observed
meteorological forcings over the three basins, time lag errors of peak discharges between 14 and 17 June for the ensemble
median of the CLEPS, and for the deterministic run of the MOLOCH model. Hydrological simulations started on 14 June 2007
00:00 UTC and finished on 18 June 2007 00:00 UTC.
Peak discharge June 2007 event
time lag errors (hour) FEST-WB CLEPS median MOLOCH
Toce +3 h +10 h +3 h
Ticino +2 h +10 h +4 h
Maggia +1 h +7 h +4 h

Table 7 Relative errors in peak discharges between 14 and 17 June for the FEST-WB hydrological simulation driven by
observed meteorological forcings over the three basins and for the ensemble median of the CLEPS and for the deterministic
run of the MOLOCH model. Hydrological simulations started on 14 June 2007 and finished on 18 June 2007 00:00 UTC.
June 2007 event
Peak discharge relative errors
FEST-WB CLEPS median MOLOCH
Toce -4% -56% +48%
Ticino +59% +4% -1%
Maggia +2% +5% +45%

different when implemented with the forecasted event.

meteorological forcings. Although better simulations
(Fig. 3) were obtained with the one day ahead run (i.e.
24-48 hours before the main peak discharge), the
COSMO-LEPS ensemble predictions have shown very
poor results with a total underestimation of the peak
discharge (Table 7), which was forecasted about 10
hours later (Table 6) than the observed time (Fig. 6);
furthermore all 16 members of the COSMO-LEPS
model were affected by errors in terms of timing and
amount of rainfall over the Toce river basin for this
The performance was even worse for the forecast
initialized two days before the peak event and for the
run started on the same day, as shown in Fig. 3.
An opposite result was obtained using the
MOLOCH model. In fact, with the one day ahead run,
the peak discharge was overestimated (1,162.3 m3·s-1),
but the magnitude of the event was correctly predicted,
issuing an orange warning (Fig. 6).
5.1.2 Impact at Subbasin Scale
The COSMO-LEPS forecast precipitation error was
 An Operational Hydro-Meteorological Chain to Evaluate the Uncertainty in Runoff 389
Forecasting over the Verbano Basin

also investigated over the Toce subbasins to understand
if the underestimation persists even at smaller scales.
As can be seen in the QPF and QDF plots (Fig. 7), the
underestimation in forecasting is generally confirmed
in most of the Toce subbasins: in particular, the worst
results were achieved for the Bogna and Ovesca
subbasins and a better outcome was instead obtained
for the Devero, where there was appeared to be an
overestimation for some ensemble members in the
peak flow.
If considering the ensembles median of the
cumulated precipitation (red dashed line), there is an
underestimation of about 40 mm (P) in the Bogna
subbasin (Fig. 8), in comparison with the subbasin
mean rainfall (dark solid line); this produced an
underestimation of the forecasted ensemble median

(a) QPF error (b) QDF error

Fig. 7 Semi-log plot for the QPF error between 14 and 15 June by the CLEPS model on the Toce basin and its subbasins. The
CLEPS forecast was initialized on 13 June 2007 12:00 UTC (a). Semi-log plot for the QDF error of FEST-WB model driven by
the CLEPS forecast on 15 June over the Toce basin and its subbasins; the hydrological simulation driven by the CLEPS
forecast was launched on 14 June 2007 00:00 UTC and finished on 18 June 2007 00:00 UTC (b). Black dot show the ensemble
QPF errors.

Fig. 8 QPFs and QDFs of FEST-WB and CLEPS models over the Bogna subbasin. The CLEPS forecast started on 13 June
2007 12:00 UTC, while the hydrological simulation driven by the CLEPS forecast was launched on 14 June 2007 00:00 UTC
and finished on 18 June 2007 00:00 UTC.
390 An Operational Hydro-Meteorological Chain to Evaluate the Uncertainty in Runoff
Forecasting over the Verbano Basin

discharge (dark dashed line), compared to the
discharge simulated by the FEST-WB model (light
solid line) of about 55 m3·s-1, as ΔQmax. In terms of the
hydrograph’s water volume, about 2.55 × 106 m3 of
water less than the simulated amount was forecasted
over this small watershed (~ 100 km2) in three days.
Due to unknown measured discharge values at
subbasin scale, discharge simulations obtained with the
FEST-WB model, driven by observed data, were used
as a reference.
This underestimation obtained in the QPF and in the
QDF was strongly pronounced in almost all the Toce
subbasins, except over the Devero, where better results
were found. As shown in Fig. 9, there are only 12 mm
of difference (P) between the median of cumulated
precipitation, compared with the subbasin mean rainfall
value; this involves a ΔQmax of only 13 m3·s-1 between
the value forecasted by CLEPS and the value simulated
by the FEST-WB model. In this case, in terms of the
hydrograph’s water volume, this underestimation is
much less than the one obtained for the Bogna subbasin,
in fact, about 0.68 × 106 m3 of water less than the
simulated amount was forecasted over the Devero
subbasin.
5.1.3 River Ticino at Bellinzona
Moving now our attention to the Ticino basin, the
COSMO-LEPS and MOLOCH models significantly
underestimated the cumulative precipitation (Table 6).
The maximum observed discharge at Bellinzona was
761.5 m3·s-1 (orange warning), while the simulated
maximum discharge by FEST-WB driven by observed
hydro-meteorological data was 1,210.4 m3·s-1 (Fig. 10).
The relevant overestimation by the hydrological
FEST-WB model, when it was forced with a
meteorological forecast, was compensated by a
precipitation underestimation of the COSMO-LEPS
and MOLOCH models. This led to small errors in peak
discharge prediction (Table 6 and Fig. 4) and to the
correct issuing of the hydrological warning level
(Table 5).
5.1.4 River Maggia at Solduno
Last analyses for this convective summer event were
carried out on the Maggia, the smallest of the three
catchments. As well as for the other two basins, the two

Fig. 9 QPFs and QDFs of FEST-WB and CLEPS models over the Devero subbasin. The CLEPS forecast started on 13 June
2007 12:00 UTC, while the hydrological simulation driven by the CLEPS forecast was launched on 14 June 2007 00:00 UTC
and finished on 18 June 2007 00:00 UTC.
 An Operational Hydro-Meteorological Chain to Evaluate the Uncertainty in Runoff 391
Forecasting over the Verbano Basin

Fig. 10 QPFs and QDFs of the FEST-WB model forced with observed meteorological data, and with the CLEPS and
MOLOCH model forecast over the Ticino basin. The hydrological simulation driven by the two meteorological model was
launched on 14 June 2007 00:00 UTC and finished on 18 June 2007 00:00 UTC.

meteorological models have demonstrated a better
hydrological simulation 24-48 hours before the
observed peak (Fig. 5).
The FEST-WB simulation shows a very good
performance (956.4 m3·s-1), in accordance with the
observed discharge value (941.7 m3·s-1), both in terms
of time (Table 7) and peak flow (Table 6). Although
cumulative precipitation was underestimated by both
weather models, thanks to an overestimation in
precipitation rate, especially in the MOLOCH model
(Fig. 11), the hydrological forecasts correctly showed
that the orange warning has been exceed (Table 5).
In this first experiment carried out in 2007, it is
found that an overestimation or underestimation of

Fig. 11 QPFs and QDFs of the FEST-WB model forced with observed meteorological data, and with the CLEPS and
MOLOCH model forecast over the Maggia basin. The hydrological simulation driven by the two meteorological model was
launched on 14 June 2007 00:00 UTC and finished on 18 June 2007 00:00 UTC.
392 An Operational Hydro-Meteorological Chain to Evaluate the Uncertainty in Runoff
Forecasting over the Verbano Basin
weather models can be enhanced or smoothed out by
hydrological model performance. Errors in
meteorological forecasts can be a consequence of the
different spatial resolution between the two
meteorological models with markedly different
orographies as shown in Fig. 2 in Section 3.1. But,
another aspect to be considered is that both forecasts
are fed into a hydrological model on 00:00 UTC as
“initialization time”. This means that the hydrological
forecast is based on a 12-hour forecast by CLEPS and
at the same hour-forecast by MOLOCH.
Especially for short lead times and small catchments,
forecast error is in general a function of lead time (the
longer the lead time, the more uncertain the forecast).
This is probably not as important for the 3- and 2-day
forecasts, but it could be for the 1-day forecasts.
High-resolution models (like MOLOCH) are mainly
targeted for the short-range where more spatial detail is
required, while the lower-resolution models such as
COSMO-LEPS is mainly targeted for ranges from one
day onwards. It is known that it may not be
recommended to directly compare the forecast qualities
for such different lead times of meteorological
forecasts, but the idea it is not to put one model against
the other, but to show that forecasting
hydro-meteorological systems should be supported by
both the two models, i.e. probabilistic and
deterministic.
5.2 The November 2007 Event: Effect of Soil Moisture
Conditions
The November event over the Maggiore Lake basin
was a stratiform event with light but continuous
precipitation over the area, but with very small peak
stream-flows in all three main basins. The weather
analysis over Europe on 23 November shows a typical
autumnal pattern with an upper level trough, coming
from the Atlantic Ocean, moving eastward, trigging
humid air from the South toward the Southern edge of
Italian and Swiss Alps.
After the long dry period that hit the Southern edge
of the Alps from the beginning of October, this
precipitation was the first relevant meteorological
phenomenon that occurred after 50 days of the dry
autumn season of 2007.
For the sake of brevity, it is focused the attention
over the Toce basin, where a more detailed
physiographic characterization is available. The
observed amount of precipitation during this stratiform
event (21-24 November) was about 80 mm as a mean
basin value (Table 8).
Figs. 12 and 13 show the millimetres of precipitation
forecasted by the MOLOCH model (Fig. 12) and the
expected probability in exceeding the meteorological
yellow code by the CLEPS model (Fig. 13) with the
weather forecasts initialized on 21, 22 and 23
November 2007.
According to the D-PHASE threshold (Tables 1 and 2),
the CLEPS and MOLOCH models issued a
meteorological warning (yellow code) expected on 22
and 23 November, but the measured peak discharge on
23 November at the Candoglia gauging station was
only 57.8 m3·s-1, which is a very low value, with no
alert all!
As it has been seen for the June event, there is not
always a univocal relationship between meteorological
and hydrological warnings. In this event, due to the dry
antecedent soil condition, the FEST-WB hydrological
simulations, forced with forecasted meteorological
Table 8 Observed precipitation during the 21-24
November event.
Day Observed precipitation (mm)
21 November 2007 6.7
22 November 2007 30.6
23 November 2007 34.7
24 November 2007 9.4
Total Precipitation (mm) 81.5
Fig. 12 Millimetres of forecasted rain by the MOLOCH
model. The hydrological runs were initialized on 21, 22 and
23 November.
 An Operational Hydro-Meteorological Chain to Evaluate the Uncertainty in Runoff 393
Forecasting over the Verbano Basin

Fig. 13 Probability of exceeding yellow code with the CLEPS forecast. The hydrological runs were initialized on 21, 22 and 23
November.

Fig. 14 Forecasted discharge by the FEST-WB model forced with COSMO-LEPS (left) and MOLOCH (right) data; the
hydrological run was started on 22 November.

saturation sat are found only along the main river

tributaries (Fig. 15-right).

Fig. 15 Soil moisture field before (left) and after (right) the
21-24 November event.
data, performed well, issuing no warning. As shown in
Fig. 14, both the CLEPS and MOLOCH forecast are
very far from the yellow threshold.
Looking at the soil moisture field, very dry values
near to res (Eq. (6)) before the event generally over the
Toce basin (Fig. 15-left) are found, and even at the end
of the rainfall with the soil not totally saturated, as
proof of the drought period that hit North-West Italy
during the autumn of 2007; values near to the
6. Conclusions
This study, part of the project MAP-D-PHASE,
evaluated a forecasting operational chain based on a
distributed hydrological model, coupled with two
weather output: one deterministic of the MOLOCH
model and one with an ensemble prediction system of
the COSMO-LEPS.
These experiments were carried out for two events
during the D-PHASE period: a convective event in
June and a stratiform event in the autumn over the three
main basins of Lake Maggiore: the Toce, Ticino and
Maggia.
The results obtained show how alert warnings issued
on the basis of forecasted precipitation are not always
reliable. In fact, an underestimation of the warning
level was observed in the June event due to an
underestimation of cumulative precipitation. To the
contrary an overestimation of the meteorological
warning level was observed in the November event.
394 An Operational Hydro-Meteorological Chain to Evaluate the Uncertainty in Runoff
Forecasting over the Verbano Basin
But, hydrological alerts are not the exact consequence
of meteorological warnings, above all in mountain
watersheds where many uncertainties must be
considered in hydrological forecasts. Furthermore, an
alert issued on the basis of precipitation only cannot
take into account the actual state of the river basin,
which is crucial in defining transformation into runoff.
Therefore, it is necessary to use a hydrological
rainfall-runoff simulation and a coupling strategy
between meteorological and hydrological models.
When forced with meteorological ground observed
data, the FEST-WB performance, in terms of error in
simulated peak discharge, was different in the three
river basins, with an error ranging from -4% at Solduno
to 59% at Bellinzona during the June event. Despite
this, the magnitude of the flood event, defined by the
warning level, was always correctly simulated. When
coupled with the meteorological models, some errors
are enhanced, while other are compensated, with a
general degradation in the performance of the
hydrological model.
As far as the peak discharge time lag is concerned
(Table 7), the MOLOCH model predicted much better
the peak flow arrival, in comparison with the CLEPS’,
which is subject to a systematic delay for June event
and to an advance bias in November’s.
The study highlights how it is important in
hydrological simulations to use both probabilistic
meteorological models with a coarser resolution and
deterministic ones with a high spatial resolution,
developing what it is now called a multi-model
approach [45-47], which gives more information, since
it comes from different meteorological models.
However, in this case study, it is not the aim to
provide general trends, but to show the results relative
to the main cases study investigated during the
D-PHASE Project. In fact, generalized conclusions can
be only drawn after a large number of cases.
Acknowledgments
The authors are grateful to ARPA Regione Piemonte
(Italy), ARPA Regione Lombardia (Italy), Ufficio
Federale dell’Ambiente UFAM Berna (Switzerland)
and the Federal Office of Meteorology and
Climatology Meteoswiss (Switzerland) for providing
the ground measured data. The authors would like to
thank also ARPA Regione Emilia-Romagna (Italy) for
its contribute in providing COSMO-LEPS model data,
ISAC-CNR (Italy) for MOLOCH model data, and
EPSON METEO Centre (Italy) for the substantial grant
received in these years of Ph.D. research project. This
work was partially supported by PRE.G.I. Project and
Dote Ricerca Applicata, are funded by Regione
Lombardia.
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Formerly part of Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, ISSN 1934-8932
D DAVID PUBLISHING

Political Implications of Emergency Management

Talya D. Thomas
Department of Public Administration and Policy, Texas Southern University, Houston, Texas 77004, USA

Received: August 24, 2011 / Accepted: October 19, 2011 / Published: March 20, 2012.

Abstract: This paper will review three broad types of political implications of emergency management, since historically emergency
management was considered only a function of law enforcement and fire departments, with the support in the event of a major
catastrophe from public health and civil defense organizations. The issue is not whether governments will be required to respond to
emergencies but rather when and how frequently. The time to think about emergencies is before they happen. Despite some significant
weakness in the overall approach, political implications offer many benefits and provide various options for CDCs (community
development corporations) to get involved in disaster recovery and emergency management. Based upon a generally positive
evaluation, the paper concludes that emergency management must become a central activity, whether at the federal, state, or local or as
an intergovernmental activity. Hopefully for the future the government does not have to wait for a disaster to strike for one to put a
policy into place, since they have had several to occur over decades. The government should be ready to take on any disaster if it occurs
with the following policies and procedures that are in place.

Key words: Emergency management, public policy, political implications.

1. Introduction in identifying which events to include or exclude from

the definition. In general, most disaster events are
In an average year in the United States, floods will
defined by the need for external assistance. Perhaps,
cause $2 billion to $3 billion in damage. Tornadoes
one reason for this observation is that the disaster relief
will leave over 100 people dead. Fires will kill more
agencies are often the only organizations with
than 6,000. These emergencies occur regularly and
comprehensive and systematic data. There should be
others are waiting to happen. There are 9,000 high
some caution applied to data defined in this
hazard damns in the country. Four billion tons of
circumstance. Notably, the decision on which
hazardous materials move through transportation
situations require external assistance may differ by
systems each year. Thirty-nine states are at risk from
country or region. In some situations, it may be a
earthquakes and 22 metropolitan areas from hurricanes.
political decision as well. According to Haddow,
The issue is not whether governments will be required
Bullock, and Coppola [2] disaster is defined as an event
to respond to emergencies but rather when and how
that demands substantial crisis response requiring the
frequently. The time to think about emergencies is
use of government powers and resources beyond the
before they happen [1].
scope of one line agency or service.
One of the most difficult concepts in literature is to
A disaster can also be described as the tragedy of a
arrive at a definition of a disaster. There have been
natural or human-made hazard (a hazard is a situation
many attempts to define disasters, but all run into the
which poses a level of threat to life, health, property, or
problem of either being too broad or too narrow.
environment) that negatively affects society or
Having a definition of a disaster is extremely important
environment.
Corresponding author: Talya D. Thomas, Ph.D., visiting Since some disasters can be natural or human-made
professor, main research fields: community development, hazards and is also named after the emergency/disaster
housing policy and emergency management. E-mail:
talyat01@aol.com. that could be so precipitated then this is how
398 Political Implications of Emergency Management
emergency management came into play. Emergency
management is the discipline dealing with risk and risk
avoidance. Emergency management has become an
essential role in government today. Based on this
strong foundation, the validity of emergency
management as a government function has never been
in question. Entities and organizations fulfilling the
emergency management function existed at the state
and local level long before the federal government
became involved. But, as events occurred, as political
philosophies changed, and as the nation developed, the
federal role in emergency management steadily
increased [2].
This paper will the examine the political
implications of emergency management, since
historically emergency management was considered
only a function of law enforcement and fire
departments, with the support in the event of a major
catastrophe from public health and civil defense
organizations.
2. Major Themes of Disaster Policy and
Politics
For one to have a clear understanding about disaster
policy and politics there are four major themes, which
emerge in different ways and in different types to give
a detail explanation on how these relate to disaster
policy and politics.
The first theme concerns emergency management in
the United States. Most people associate disaster policy
with first responders such as the fire, police, and
emergency medical personnel. Public emergency
management continues to rely on the support of first
responders, but emergency management both includes
and extends well beyond the first responders.
Emergency management appears now to have become
the application side of disaster policy, even though it is
said to be true, emergency managers also help in
problem identification and policy formulation.
The second theme proposes that disaster policy and
politics constitute a worthy field of academic study.
Even though disaster research has never been in the
forefront it has become a part of many academic
disciplines. Disaster research has become a force in
shaping disaster policy and how disaster researchers
have become a part of the politics of disaster in the
United States. Disaster researchers still continue to
make major contributions to the understanding of
disasters as political, social, and economic phenomena.
These researchers as well as scientists and engineers
have also advanced knowledge and understanding of
natural and or human-made disaster forces. These
disciplines have helped to prevent or mitigate the
effects of forces capable of producing disasters and
they have used science and technology to forecast,
monitor, track, and measure natural forces so that
people around the world would have advanced warning
of any disaster threat. Emergency management has
evolved into a profession over the years, and anyone
seeking to learn the profession is pressed to master it
through interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary
education.
The third theme involves management again, but at
the level of elected officials. The major players in time
of a disaster and or emergency will be the President of
the United States, governors, mayors, county
executives, and city managers. Intergovernmental
relations past or present are examined and assessed
from a vantage point. Presidents and the presidency
itself occupy a central position in U.S. disaster policy
and politics. How the president leads, manage federal
officials, cope with the news media, address
federal-state relations, act on governors’ requests for
disaster and emergency assistance, define policy
agendas, and choose political appointees for
responsible posts all contribute to the ability to address
the demands imposed by disasters and catastrophes. In
many respects political, policy, and managerial
decisions made by the presidents and their
administrations before a disaster significantly affect the
ability of federal, state, and local governments to
mitigate, prepare for, and respond to disasters and
 Political Implications of Emergency Management
emergencies.
The fourth theme involves civil-military relations
and homeland security. In the United States, the
military serves as an instrument of federal and state
governments and has played a significant role in
disaster management, usually in the emergency
preparedness and response phases. During the
modern-era in 1950, American emergency
management got its start, disaster policy and politics
have overlapped, been periodically demonstrated by,
and paralleled, United States foreign policy and
national defense policy. During the 1970s and 1980s,
as emergency managers ( at all levels) matured in their
ability to address natural disasters and as the need for
civil defense against nuclear attacks diminished,
military dominance of disaster management waned.
However, the rise of terrorism internationally, and the
possibility that terrorists would strike inside the United
States and that they might use weapons of mass
destruction, set the stage for homeland security. The
terrorists’ attacks of September 11, 2001, made at least
a part of the envisioned night mare a true reality. Today,
once again, the United States disaster policy and
politics, as well as American emergency management,
cannot be fully understood apart from their relationship
with national security and defense policy [3].
3. Disasters in the Formulation of Public
Policy
The policymakers assume that the policy process
ordinarily identifies a problem. If they choose to define
this problem then it is called a “public problem”, then
lawmakers begin to process policy formulation in
which various solutions to the problem are then put
forward and often in the form of different legislative
measures. Different political interests establish
positions on the measures and a process of building
coalitions begins to take place among the legislators.
The president and some officials of the executive
branch may engage in this policy formulation and
policy adoption process by exercising political
399
influence or by contributing to the hearing process.
Legislators ultimately vote on proposed measures to
address the problem, and once a policy is adopted,
often through enactment of a law, institutional
resources and spending authority are provided to
implement the law. Many federal disaster laws have
emerged by the way of this general process over the
years.
However, history demonstrates that the president
and other policymakers regularly have to decide how to
manage different types of disasters and what the
subsequent role of the federal government will be. In
some new type of disaster or in certain emergencies the
legislative determination proves to be too slow,
cumbersome, and costly to rely on, presidents are
entrusted with deciding whether a national interest
exists and if so how the federal government will
respond. Presidential executive orders sometimes
provide the president and the federal government a
high-speed, highly responsive alternative to the
conventional policy process. The president’s creative
use of disaster declaration authority is an important and
available tool [3].
The president of the United States often leads policy
formulation and legitimation of disaster policy.
Presidents are the chief executives and they also have
made the decision to press the emergency circumstance
and use their executive authority to move the federal
government to address new emergencies, disasters, and
exigencies. Because the United States is a democratic
republic with a national constitution, and because it is
composed of three countervailing branches of
government, responsibility for protecting the polity
from harms posed in emergency circumstances falls
largely on government institutions operating in accord
with certain laws. The United States Constitution
clearly entrusts the president and Congress with the job
of providing for the common defense. Preventing
repelling, responding to, and recovering from the
effects of attacks on the American homeland
perpetrated by other nations or by terrorists who are
400 Political Implications of Emergency Management
stateless have always been a cardinal responsibility of
the federal government [3].
Throughout history public policy makers have
sought to anticipate the unexpected in order to reduce
the risk to human life and safety posed by
intermittently occurring natural and man-made
hazardous events. Their efforts have provided the
foundation for the current focus on emergency
management as an important function of federal, state,
and local governments. Within the contest of the
various statutes, regulations, and ordinances,
emergency management can be defined as the process
of developing and implementing policies that are
concerned with:
 Mitigation―Deciding what to do where a risk to
the health, safety, and welfare of society has been
determined to exist; and implementing a risk reduction
program;
 Preparedness―Developing a response plan and
training first responders to save lives and reduce
disaster damage, including the identification of critical
resources and the development of necessary
agreements among responding agencies, both within
the jurisdiction and with other jurisdictions;
 Response―Providing emergency aid and assistance,
reducing the probability of secondary damage, and
minimizing problems for recovery operations;
 Recovery―Providing immediate support during
the early recovery period necessary to return vital life
support systems to minimum operation levels, and
continuing to provide support until the community
returns to normal [4].
Public policy and public institutions have been slow
to respond and meet the new challenges that are posed
by a complex technological society, and society has
many respects, which have become a victim in dealing
with technology. Immediate economic return has
governed the decision-making process while ignoring
potential long-range consequences. The results have
been an increase in the exposure of people and property
to extremely risky situations as exemplified in the
increased land development in coastal storm areas, in
flood plains, in areas adjacent to hazardous waste
landfills, airports, and nuclear power plants, and on
unstable hillsides. There has also been a consistent
institutional and political lag in identifying and
mitigating increasingly hazardous situations [4].
4. National, State, and Local Programs from
Disasters
There have been several programs that have been
implemented since disasters have occurred since the
1950s that are on the national, state, and local levels.
Some of the programs are Federal Disaster Relief Act
of 1950, Disaster Relief Act of 1974, Disaster
Mitigation Act of 2000, Hazard Mitigation Grant
Program, FEMA, National Flood Insurance Program,
and National Response Plan.
The Federal Disaster Relief Act of 1950 was passed
as a limited federal response to the flooding that
happened in the Midwest. This new law set forth a
framework and process that carried the nation through
more than 50 years of experience. This act provided an
orderly and continuing means of assistance by the
Federal government to States and local governments in
carrying out their responsibilities to take away
suffering and damage that resulted in major disasters
that includes flooding. This new law made federal
disaster assistance more accessible, because it no
longer required specific congressional legislations to
address each new disaster, but instead to allow the
president decides when federal disaster assistance was
justified and necessary. The Disaster Relief Act of
1950 put in place a standard that governs states to ask
the president to approve federal disaster assistance for
their respective states and localities. This set
precedents by establishing a federal policy for
providing emergency relief, by laying out national
governmental responsibility in disasters and by
transforming the intergovernmental context of
disasters [3].
In May 1974, President Nixon signed into law the
 Political Implications of Emergency Management
Disaster Relief Act of 1974, for the first time this act
created a program that provided direct assistance to
individuals and families following a disaster. The
Disaster Relief Act of 1974 brought state and local
governments into all-hazards preparedness activities
and provided matching funds for their emergency
management programs, this act also authorized in law
emergency declaration category. This law also
recognized the need for improved disaster mitigation.
This required states and communities that were
receiving federal disaster assistance to agree that the
natural hazards in the areas in which the proceeds of
the grants or loans are to be used shall be evaluated and
appropriate action shall be taken to mitigate such
hazards.
Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000 is a law that
amended the 1988 Stafford Act and gave FEMA
authority to establish a program of technical and
financial assistance for enhanced predisaster mitigation
to state and local governments. This law also helps to
make changes to the 1974 requirements for postdisaster
mitigation plans by requiring that states prepare a
comprehensive state program for predisaster
emergency and disaster mitigation before they could
receive postdisaster declaration mitigation funds from
FEMA. The aim of this law was to engage local
governments to engage in such mitigation activities as
hazard mapping, planning, and development of
hazard-sensitive building codes.
The HMGP (Hazard Mitigation Grant Program) is
the largest source of funding for state and local
mitigation activities. This program was enacted by
Congress in 1988 as a part of the Robert T. Stafford Act,
which was a major reworking of federal disaster policy.
This grant program allowed stated to hiring staff to
work on mitigation and to require development of a
state Hazard Mitigation Plan as a condition of funding.
HMGP brought about change in the emergency
management community at the state and local levels.
The FEMA (Federal Emergency Management
Agency) origins came from the National Governors
401
Association in the 1970s and a working group in 1978
was for formed by President Carter. FEMA
implemented the National Flood Insurance Program to
be utilized under their agency. By May of 1980, FEMA
had adopted a fund-matching policy that required state
and local governments to agree to pay 25% of the
eligible costs of public assistance programs. The
nonfederal contribution was subject to negotiation
between FEMA and the affected state and local
governments. Since the 1950, presidents have
remained free to waive part or the entire state-local
match for any declaration they issue, despite the 25%
funding—match rule [3].
The NFIP (National Flood Insurance Program) has
been considered to be one of the most successful
mitigation programs ever created. The NFIP was
created by Congress in response to damages from
multiple, severe hurricanes and inland flooding and the
rising costs of disaster assistance after these floods.
This program was designed to be a voluntary program
and it did not prosper during the early years, even
though flooding still continued. Over the years, the
NFIP has created other incentives, such as the
Community Rating System. This program rewards
different communities that go beyond the minimum
floodplain ordinance requirements with reduced
insurance premiums. The NFIP represents one of the
best public/private partnerships. Today, more than
20,000 communities in the NFIP have programs for
mitigation in place.
The Department of Homeland Security, wrote a
Letter of Agreement from the National Response Plan
(NRP). The NRP is an all-discipline, all-hazards plan
that establishes a single, comprehensive framework for
the management of domestic incidents. It provides the
structure and mechanisms for the coordination of
Federal support to State, local, and tribal incident
managers and for exercising direct Federal authorities
and responsibilities. The NRP assists in the important
homeland security mission of preventing terrorist
attacks within the United States; reducing the
402 Political Implications of Emergency Management
vulnerability to al natural and manmade hazards; and
minimizing the damage and assisting in the recovery
from any type of incident that occurs [2]. “The NRP
was designed according to the template of the National
Incident Management System-March 2004).” This was
to ensure that a framework exists for the management
of incidents at all jurisdictional levels, regardless of the
cause, and size of the incident. The NRP established
mechanisms to maximize the integration of
incident-related prevention, preparedness, response,
and recovery activities, facilitate federal-to-federal
interaction and emergency support, and address
linkages to other federal incident management and
emergency response plans developed for specific types
of incidents or hazards.
5. Conclusions
Emergency management must become a central
activity, whether at the federal, state, or local level or as
an intergovernmental activity. The field is complex and
many approaches can and have been taken to identify
the problem and needs of emergency management. The
United States in an average year will spend $2 billion
to $3 billion in damages due to floods. Tornadoes will
leave over 100 people dead. Fires will kill more than
6,000. These emergencies occur regularly and others
are waiting to happen. There are 9,000 high hazard
damns in the country. Four billion tons of hazardous
materials move through transportation system each
year. Thirty-nine states are at risk from earthquakes
and 22 metropolitan areas from hurricanes. The issue is
not whether governments will be required to respond to
emergencies but rather when and how frequently. Since
they do now have policy and procedures in place for
natural disasters now this can be used when a disaster
strikes whether it is natural or manmade. Hopefully for
the future the government does not have to wait for a
disaster to strike for one to put a policy into place, since
they have had several occur over the decades. The
government should be ready to take on any disaster if it
occurs with the following policies and procedures that
are in place.
References
[1] D. McLoughlin, A framework for integrated emergency
management, Public Administration Review 45 (1985)
165-172.
[2] G.D. Haddow, J.A. Bullock, D.P. Coppola, Introduction to
Emergency Management, Butterworth-Heinemann Press,
Burlington, MA, 2008.
[3] R. Sylves, Disaster Policy and Politics: Emergency
Management and Homeland Security, CQ Press,
Washington DC, 2008.
[4] W.J. Petak, Emergency management: A challenge for
public administration, Public Administration Review 45
(1985) 3-7.
Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering B 1 (2012) 403-409
Formerly part of Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, ISSN 1934-8932
D DAVID PUBLISHING

Comparing Ecological Functions of Eastern and

Southern Slopes of a Rangeland Ecosystem in
Chaharbagh Region, Golestan Province, Iran

Reza Dehghani Bidgoli1, Mohammad Pessarakli2, Gholam. Ali Heshmati1 and Marzieh Yousefi Najafabadi3
1. Department of Rangeland Management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan 1573949138,
Iran
2. School of Plant Sciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721, USA
3. Abouriham Campus, The University of Tehran, Pakdasht 3391653755, Iran

Received: September 26, 2011 / Accepted: November 14, 2011 / Published: March 20, 2012.

Abstract: Getting aware of one kind of soil surface attributs is very important. Assessment of important attributes of soil and
vegetation can help us to be aware of rangeland potential and help us to determine its situation. The goal of this research is to determine
some plant and soil indicators of hilly winter rangelands of Eastern and Southern slopes of Chaharbagh region in Golestan province. By
considering plant cover and soil surface attributes, it used the SSCC (soil surface classification) method to assess soil surface attributes.
The length and width of ecological patches were measured in the forms of lichen, lichen-Grass, forbs, shrub and bare soil inter patches
with litter. Also in this research, it measured the 11 soil surface parameters. These parameters are belonging to three main soil attributes:
stability, infiltration and nutrient cycles. These three indicators were measured in east and west of Eastern and Southern slopes of this
ecosystem and showed significance differences (p < 0.05) in shrub, forbs and lichen-grass. In southern and especially in west aspect,
these indicators in shrub were more than Eastern. But, in lossy hill of Eastern, lichen-grass patch is more significant. The most
important ecological indicators of east landscapes of this region are forbs and lichen-grass.

Key words: Ecological function, soil attributes, soil stability, infiltration, nutrient cycles.

1. Introduction vegetation and environmental changes is one of the

important factors that can be used for correcting the
Getting aware of soil surface situation is very
plan of sustainable use, conservation and potential
important. Assessment important soil surface attributes
assessment of rangelands. Soil is one of the most
can help us to be aware of rangeland potential and
important factors of each range source. The history of
important attributes of soil and often all forms of
soil science shows that some of soil surface attributes
erosion happen because of low infiltration of soil and
have high correlation with soil stability. In a study by
its instability [1]. A large extent of plant vegetation is
Taghipour and Khodanami in Hezar Jarib (Behshahr)
affected by environmental factors such as climate, soil
[3, 4], the method used of ordination (CCA) showed
and topography. Establishment of plant types causes of
that soil had the most important role on plant
ecological nature and distribution of plant society
vegetation from different environmental factors. It is
based on different plants tolerate to soil conditions and
also reported that different effective factors on
environmental factors [2]. The relation between plant
establishment of saline plants, soil have the most
important role and physical and chemical changes
Corresponding author: Reza Dehghani Bidgoli, Ph.D. which are in an effect of other factors such as
student, main research fields: rangeland management,
rangeland ecology. E-mail: bidgoli.r@gmail.com. topography. It can use LFA method in soil water to
404 Comparing Ecological Functions of Eastern and Southern Slopes of a Rangeland Ecosystem in
Chaharbagh Region, Golestan Province, Iran
improve vegetation planning of Australia rangeland
landscape, and also use the three mentioned parameters
for assessment the soil surface indicators [5]. Heshmati
et al. [6] in Gomishan of Golestan used LFA method to
assess the qualities potential of the region. Foruze and
Heshmati [7] used the three mentioned parameters to
assess the soil situation of Southern rangeland.
Land functional indexes prepare the good goal
opportunity to decrease the costs of analyzing of
different soil attributes. According to the hilly lands in
Eastern and Southern rangelands in Chaharbagh
Golestan province, analysis the potential, situation and
function of soil surface attributes in rangelands can
help the managers to plan correctly. The goal of this
research is to use SSCC method (soil surface
classification) for in two aspects of east and west of
Eastern and Southern shrub lands in Chaharbagh
rangeland Golestan province. The natural cover of
winter shrub lands in northeast of Golestan province is
the reflex of physiographic attributes, climate and soil
situation of this region. In order to manage the plant
structure, three different studies have been done on
Eastern and Southern slopes in this region [8, 9].
2. Methods and Data
2.1 Site Description
This research was carried out in lossy hilly areas of
Eastern and Southern of shrub rangelands in Chahar
Bagh Golestan province. The saline rangelands of
Eastern are placed in 60 km north of Saraliabad in
Golestan. The geology of this region is between
36°39′50″E and 36°40′4″N. The mean annual air
temperature is 19 oC and climate is semi arid. The
maximum and minimum heights from sea level are 41
m and 20 m respectively, so this region is hilly. The pH
of the soil is within 7.4-7.8 and the texture of the soil is
silt clay with EC 24-25 Ml/mose. The plant forms
include the shrub, forbs and lichen that established on
saline soil. The hilly areas in the Southern slope is
placed in the northeast of Golestan province within
55°-56°E and 37°20′50′′S. It has the hilly areas by
250-908 m height from sea level. Mean rainfall in this
region is 359.7 mm, mean temperature is 17.2 oC and
mean annual moisture is 61.2%.
2.2 LFA Data Collection
The LFA (landscape function analysis) method
considers range-lands as landscape system [10]. LOI
(landscape organization index) is defined within LFA
procedures as the arrangement of zones that reflect
run-on and run-off processes. Using the LFA method, it
can derive values for an LOI and other soil surface
indices: SI (soil stability index), Infil (infiltration index)
and NCI (nutrient cycling index). The indices included
relevant combinations of individual soil surface
features, comprising soil cover, litter cover, cryptogam
cover, crust brokenness, erosion features, deposited
material, micro-topography, slake test and soil surface
texture [10]. The landscape organization data were
collected for each site at the three line transects.
According to the hilly area of the two sites, it was
sampled the east and west aspects of soil surface of two
sites in Eastern and Southern by the method of LFA. In
each aspect， it had dropped three line transects that
length of this transects were 50 meter [11].
In each transect, the length and with of the patches
were measured by the form and size of shrub, forb,
lichen, grass and bare soil within interpatches. Five
repentance of each patch and eleven parameters of soil
surface were measured. Then by using Minitab
software and t-test, it analysed the data which had done
by the appendix software of (LFA) in Excel written by
Tonway and Hindley (SI, Infil, NCI) in two aspects of
East and West [12].
3. Results and Discussion
3.1 Soil Attributes
The comparison of three indices (stability,
infiltration, and nutrient cycle) in the east and west of
the Eastern and Southern sites is available in Table 1.
 Comparing Ecological Functions of Eastern and Southern Slopes of a Rangeland Ecosystem in 405
Chaharbagh Region, Golestan Province, Iran

Table 1 The results of t-test analysis of comparison of the stbility, infiltrqtion and nutrient cycle in the east and west of
Eastern and Southern slopes in Chaharbagh in Golestan/Iran.
Parameters Site P
The east aspects of Eastern and Southern slopes 0.426
Stability index
The west aspects of Eastern and Southern slopes 0.008
The east aspects of Eastern and Southern slopes 0.485
Infiltration index
The west aspects of Eastern and Southern slopes 0.007
The east aspects of Eastern and Southern slopes 0.490
Nutrient cycle index
The west aspects of Eastern and Southern slopes 0.410

There are significance differences between three
indices in each region. The results showed that the 11
factors of soil surface had the significance differences
in two sites (Table 2).
Also the stability of shrub and forbs in the west of
Southern slope in comparison the west of Eastern slope
had better situations, but stability and infiltration of
lichen in two sites didn’t show any significant
difference (Table 3).
The comparison of soil surface assessment
contribution to the whole landscape in the east of hilly
areas of Eastern and Southern slopes showed that shrub
in the west of Southern site had higher importance
rather than Eastern site, while Lichen-Grass in Eastern
site showed more important (Fig. 1).
Stability, infiltration and nutrient cycle indicators
were 44.8%, 28.1%, 26.7% in the Eastern slope and
54.6%, 38.7% and 39.6% in the Southern slope. The
total amount of these indicators in the east of Southern
slope was more than Eastern slope (Table 4).
According to Table 4, the difference within the
amounts of these parameters was significant.

Table 2 Soil surface assessment of individual zones in the east aspect of hilly areas of Eastern and Southern slopes.
Zone Patch Stability Std err Infiltration Std err Nutrients Std err
Lichon + Grass 56.5 1.9 39.8 2.7 48.2 3.5
Shrub 60.5 2.0 41.4 2.3 47.5 5.9
East of Southern slope Forb 54.2 0.8 37.6 1.7 39.8 3.3
Litter 52.5 0.0 47.6 6.9 46.9 0.7
Bare soil 46.2 0.7 33.5 3.2 23.8 2.4
Lichon 48.1 2.4 39.9 6.9 38.7 8.1
Lichon + Grass 52.5 1.6 38.1 1.5 47.0 1.8
East of Eastern slope Shrub 48.8 1.3 30.6 0.9 30.8 3.1
Forb 44.8 1.0 34.7 7.3 22.7 4.7
Bare soil 38.0 1.4 16.8 0.7 10.1 1.2

Table 3 Soil surface assessment of individual zones in the west aspect of hilly areas of Eastern and Southern slopes in
Chaharbagh region.
Zone Patch Stability Std err Infiltration Std err Nutrients Std err
Lichon + Grass 56.5 1.5 41.4 1.4 45.9 2.6
Shrub 54.1 1.0 34.9 2.4 30.0 4.1
West of Southern Forb 56.0 1.0 34.7 1.0 33.4 2.0
slope Litter 65.0 2.6 46.8 3.0 50.8 3.8
Bare soil 57.5 1.1 41.3 2.0 42.7 1.5
lichon 48.1 2.4 39.9 6.9 38.7 8.1
Lichon + Grass 52.5 1.6 38.1 1.5 47.0 1.8
West of Eastern Shrub 48.8 1.3 30.6 0.9 30.8 3.1
slope Forb 44.8 1.0 34.7 7.3 22.7 4.7
Bare soil 38.0 1.4 16.8 0.7 10.1 1.2
406 Comparing Ecological Functions of Eastern and Southern Slopes of a Rangeland Ecosystem in
Chaharbagh Region, Golestan Province, Iran

90.0 90.0
(%)

(%)
80.0

stability index(%
80.0
Stability index(%

)
70.0
70.0
60.0
60.0
50.0
50.0
40.0
30.0 40.0

20.0 30.0
10.0 20.0
0.0 10.0
ss

l
+G n

Ba rb
b

oi
0.0
on ho

ru
ra

S
Fo
Sh
ch lic

re

il

rb
Ba n

b
r

ss
so

tte
o

ru

Fo
ch

ra
Sh
Li
re

G
Li
Li

90.0 90.0
(%)
Infiltration index(%)

80.0

(%)
80.0

Infiltration index(%)
70.0
70.0
60.0
50.0 60.0
40.0 50.0
30.0 40.0
20.0 30.0
10.0
20.0
0.0
10.0
ss

l
+G n

Ba rb
b

oi
on ho

ru
ra

S
Fo

0.0
Sh
ch lic

re

il

rb
Ba n

b
r

ss
so

tte
o

ru

Fo
ch

ra
Sh
Li

Li
re

G
Li

90.0 90.0
80.0 80.0
(%)
Nutrient cycle(%
(%)

Nutrient cycle(%

70.0 70.0
60.0 60.0
50.0
50.0
40.0
40.0
30.0
30.0
20.0
10.0 20.0
0.0 10.0
ss

0.0
+G n

Ba rb
b

oi
on ho

ru
ra

S
Fo
Sh
ch lic

re

il

rb
Ba n

b
r

ss
so

tte
o

ru

Fo
ch

ra
Sh
Li
re

G
Li
Li

(a) (b)
Fig. 1 The percentage of soil stability, infiltration and nutrient cycle in the east of the Eastern and Southern slopes
considering number and the area of patches. (a) The patches of the east of the Eastern slope; (b) the patches of east of the
Southern slope.
Table 4 The analysis of soil surface assessment of individual zones contribution to the whole landscape in the east aspect of
hilly areas of Eastern and Southern slopes.
Zone Patch Stability Std err Infiltration Std err Nutrients Std err
Lichen + Grass 4.2 0.1 3.0 0.2 3.6 0.3
Litter 3.0 0.0 2.7 0.4 2.7 0.0
East of Southern Bare soil 12.0 0.2 8.7 0.8 6.2 0.6
slope Shrub 22.8 0.8 15.6 0.9 17.9 2.2
Forbs 12.5 0.2 8.7 0.4 9.2 0.8
Total 54.6 1.2 38.7 2.4 39.6 3.7
Lichen 8.9 0.2 6.0 0.5 8.3 0.5
Lichen + Grass 14.9 0.5 9.7 0.7 12.3 1.7
East of Eastern slope Shrub 6.5 0.1 5.2 0.2 6.2 0.5
Forbs 2.8 0.1 2.3 0.1 1.7 0.2
Bare Soil 17.9 0.6 11.5 1.3 9.4 1.5
Total 44.8 1.4 28.1 1.9 26.7 2.4
 Comparing Ecological Functions of Eastern and Southern Slopes of a Rangeland Ecosystem in 407
Chaharbagh Region, Golestan Province, Iran

The comparison of soil surface assessment
contributing to the whole Landscape in the west spect
of hilly areas of Eastern and Southern slopes (Fig. 2)
showed that stability, infiltration and nutrient cycle in
the west aspect of hilly areas of Eastern slope were in
51%, 34.7%, 32% and in the west of Southern slope
were of 57%, 37.7% and 36%. Bare soil and shrub in
the west of Southern slope had more significant value
than west of Eastern slope.
These indices in Lichen-Grass had more significant
value rather than west of Southern slope. Although the
total amounts of these three indicators in the west of
Southern slope were more than the Eastern slope
(Table 5).

90.0 90.0
80.0 80.0
(%)
Stability index(%

(%)
stability index(%)
70.0 70.0
60.0 60.0
50.0 50.0
40.0 40.0
30.0
30.0
20.0
20.0
10.0
10.0
0.0
0.0
ss

l
+G n

Ba rb
b

oi
o

ru

S
ra

Fo
ch lich

ss

il

b
Ba er
Sh

rb
so
re

ru
ra

tt

fo
Sh
Li

re
G
on

+
on
Li

ch
Li

90.0 90.0
(%)

(%)
I nfiltration index(%

80.0 80.0
)

Infiltration index(%)

70.0 70.0
60.0 60.0
50.0
50.0
40.0
40.0
30.0
30.0
20.0
20.0
10.0
10.0
0.0
0.0
ss

l
+G n

Ba rb
b

oi
o

ru

S
ra

Fo
ch lich

ss

il

b
Sh

Ba er

rb
so
re

ru
ra

tt

fo
Sh
Li

re
on

+ G
on
Li

ch
Li

90.0
(%)
Nutrient cycle(%

80.0 90.0
(%)
Nutrient cycle(%

70.0 80.0
60.0 70.0
50.0 60.0
40.0 50.0
30.0 40.0
20.0 30.0
10.0 20.0
0.0 10.0
0.0
ss

l
+G n

Ba rb
b

oi
o

ru

S
ra

Fo
ch lich

Sh

ss

il

b
re

Ba er

rb
so

ru
ra

tt

fo
on

Sh
Li

re
G
+
on
Li

ch
Li

(a) (b)
Fig. 2 The percentage of soil stability, infiltration and nutrient cycle in the Eastern and Southern slopes consideting number
and the area of patches. (a) The patches of the Eastern slope; (b) the patches of the Southern slope.
408 Comparing Ecological Functions of Eastern and Southern Slopes of a Rangeland Ecosystem in
Chaharbagh Region, Golestan Province, Iran

Table 5 The analysis of soil surface assessment of individual zones contribution to the whole landscape in the west of Eastern
and Southern slopes.
Zone Patch Stability Std err Infiltration Std err Nutrients Std err
Lichen 1.7 0.0 1.2 0.0 1.4 0.1
Bare soil 27.2 0.5 17.5 1.2 15.0 2.1
Litter 12.4 0.2 7.7 0.2 7.4 0.5
West of Southern slope
Shrub 13.1 0.5 9.4 0.6 10.2 0.8
Forbs 1.7 0.0 1.2 0.1 1.3 0.0
Total 57.0 1.3 37.7 2.0 36.0 3.2
lichen 4.7 0.2 3.9 0.7 3.8 0.8
Lichen + Grass 14.3 0.4 10.4 0.4 12.8 0.5
Shrub 6.8 0.2 4.3 0.1 4.3 0.4
West of Eastern slope
Forbs 3.4 0.1 2.6 0.6 1.7 0.4
Bare Soil 15.6 0.6 6.9 0.3 4.1 0.5
Total 51.0 1.5 34.7 2.8 38.0 4.3

4. Conclusions temperature and with semi-arid climate. Three indices

of soil surface assessment—stability, infiltration, and
In this research the three indicators of stability,
nutrient cycle in east and west of two sites of Eastern
infiltration, and nutrient cycle were measured by the
and Southern slopes showed significant differences (p
method of LFA [13]. Six ecological patches in east and
< 0.05). The amount of these indices of bare soil in the
west of Eastern and Southern slopes in Chaharbagh
east and west of hilly range-lands was more than
Golestan province that are recognized as shrub, forbs,
Eastern slope, that may be because of litter and its
lichen, Grass, bare soil and litter came to the same
mixture by soil [16, 17].
result [14]. The climate condition of southern and the
In qualities assessment of range lands ecosystems in
rather high hilly areas cause the vegetation with more
Gomishan in Golestan province in comparison of the
stability indices such as infiltration and fertilization
two aspects of north and south, it came to the
than Eastern slope. Having the same type of soil (loss
conclusion that north aspects showed significant
sediment) in flat range-lands in Golestan province,
difference between ecological patch and inter-patches.
grasses with lichon and shrubs cause more foliage in
In the west of Southern slope, the amount of stability,
area unit and hence the remain plants had enough time
infiltration, and nutrient cycle indices in shrub patch
to break down and increasing the soil surface indices
were more than west aspect of Eastern slope. In a
[15]. Also in a research about qualitive analysis carried
research, it came to the conclusion that plant types such
out in two sites (exclusive and unexclusive) in
as tress, shrubs with deep roots could control ground
Incheborun/Chaharbagh Golestan province range-land,
water, produce wood and litter. And short shrubs can
with equal soil condition, the indices of plant cover in
control wind erosion, which confirms the important
exclusive site had more significant differences rather
role of shrubs in stability of soil [18].
than the out of exclusive region. The reason of such
difference can be related to climatic condition of References
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250-908 meters from sea level and mean rainfall of rangeland capability in Iran using landscape function
359.7 mm, mean annual moisture of 61.2% and mean indices based on soil surface attributes, Journal of Arid
Environments 12 (2006) 460-473.
temperature 17.2 oC, can prepare better growth
[2] G.H. Heshmati, A.A. Karimian, P. Karami, M. Amirkhani,
condition for the plants. The maximum height of hilly Qualitive analysis of range ecosystem potntial, Inche,
area of Eastern slope is 30-41 m by mean 17 oC of Golestan province, Journal of Natural Ressources and
 Comparing Ecological Functions of Eastern and Southern Slopes of a Rangeland Ecosystem in
Chaharbagh Region, Golestan Province, Iran
Agricultural Science 14 (2007)50-58.
[3] A. Taghipour, The effect of environmental factors on
distribution of range plants in Hezar JaribBehshahr,
Journal of Natural Ressources and Agricultural Science 7
(2006) 125-134.
[4] G.H. Khodanami, S.A. Kosar, Recognition of saline
regions, halophyte plants and investigation on the
echanisms of resistance to salinity stress in fars province,
in: The 2nd National Congress on Range and Management,
Tehran, Iran, 2004, pp. 767-777.
[5] S. Mcintyre, D. Tongway, R. Lambeek, Improved
vegetation planning for rural landscapes, Land & Water
Project 14 (2003) 26-28.
[6] H. Ghelichnia, Assessment of soil surface attributes for
determining soil condition of range land, in: The 2nd
National Congress on Range and Range Management,
Tehran, Iran, 2004.
[7] M.R. Foruze, G.H. Heshmati, Investigation of soil of
range lands by the method of classification of soil surface
(SSCC), in: Proceeding of 2nd Scientific Student Articles
Congress on Soil and Water Resources, Agricultural
University of Shiraz, 2004.
[8] G.H. Heshmati, B. Behmanesh, Investigation of marave
tappe and eastern plant diversity, Journal of Natural
Ressources and Agricultural Science (13) 2012. [in
press]
[9] G.H. Heshmati, M. Azimi, Organizing patches, Journal of
Natural Ressources and Agricultural Science (13) 2012.
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[10] D.J. Tongway, Monitoring soil productive potential,
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Environmental and Assessment 37 (1995) 303-318.
[11] M. Abedi, H. Arzani, Determination of the attributes of
range health by ecologic indices: The view in evaluating
and analyzing of range, Journal of Range and Forest 56
(2004) 24-46.
[12] P. Ampt, D. Tongway, A. Bumber, K. Gepp, Land
Management and Landscape Function Analysis (LFA),
Enhancing Adaptive Environmental Management while
nitoring Resource condition in Western NSW, Institude of
Environmental Studies UNSW, Sydney NSW, 2006.
[13] M.R. Foruze, G.H. Heshmati, Assessing of soil
rangeland’s fertility by using LFA, in: 9th Congress of
Iranian Soil Surface Tehran, Iran, 2005.
[14] G.H. Ghanbarian, K. Naseri, Landscape function analysis
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World 1 (2006) 64.
[15] G.H. Heshmati, M. Amirkhani, G.H. Heidari, S.A.
Hosseini, Quantative analysis of range ecosystem potntial,
Gomishan, Golestan province, Journal of Iranian Range
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[16] J. Ludwig, D. Tongway, Landscape approach to landscape
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Australia’s rangeland, CSIRO, Melbourne 15 (1997)
113-120.
[17] M. Mesdaghi, Rangeland Management in Iran, Iranian
Range Management Society, Iran, 2004, pp. 326-340.
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Formerly part of Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, ISSN 1934-8932
D DAVID PUBLISHING

Transport Risk Assessment for the Environment

Tomáš Saska
Department of Dependability and Risk, Technical University of Liberec, Liberec 46117, Czech Republic

Received: July 7, 2011 / Accepted: September 19, 2011 / Published: March 20, 2012.

Abstract: Transport risk assessment for the environment has two important aspects—problem solving model and solution veracity.
Problem solving model is larger understanding of tasks interconnection, which represents in itself partial solution of general risk
assessment. Veracity of solution means how the results are consistent with the reality. By researching of both aspects, it rises many
unanswered questions. It is concerned about verification and validation of risk assessment results. By risk assessment for the
environment it is possible to meet wide variety of more or less good soluble problems. It exists simple problems based on risk
assessment of common traffic accidents connected with service charge outflow. On the other site, it exists complex problems of risk
assessment connected with dangerous goods transport by traffic or pipelines. By simple problems solving there are not many questions
about risk assessment veracity. It is possible to determine traffic accidents frequencies and service charge outflows consequences on the
basis of examined events in transportation with great veracity. By complex problems the situation is quite different. The frequencies of
large accidents are very low but the consequences for the environment may be large. Both are encumbered by large level of uncertainty.
That is why the question is rising. To what degree, it is in these cases correct to make decision based on risk assessment.

Key words: Transport, risk, environment, risk management, uncertainties, probability.

1. Risk Management processes and systems considering risk management.

The directive is intended for:
Risk management is realized in all human life areas.
 workers engaged in risk management;
It takes effect in many standards with the relation to
 workers engaged in ISO and IEC activities;
risk whose purpose is to unite terminology, methods
 workers engaged in elaboration of national or
and procedures in this area. This fact is possible to
branch standards, manuals, procedures and principles
document with brief summary of static standards from
concerning risk management.
risk management area:
It results many another standards from this basic
 ISO/IEC Guide 73:2009 Vocabulary for Risk
terminological document, which have direct or mediate
Management
relation to the risk. Like such as standards example it is
This directive determines basic risk management
possible to mention:
terminology, which should be respected in all standards
 ISO 13824:2009 General principles on risk
used for risk management in different fields. There are
assessment of systems involving structures;
mentioned definitions of generally useable terms
 ISO 31000:2009 Risk management—principles
respecting risk management. Its main aim is to give
and guidelines;
support to mutual and consistent understanding of
 ISO/IEC 31010:2009 Risk management—risk
actions statement respecting risk management and
assessment techniques;
logically advised access to this statement, as well as
 ISO/IEC Guide 51:1999 Safety
using uniform risk management terminology in
aspects—guidelines for their inclusion in standards;
 ISO/IEC Guide 50:2002 Safety
Corresponding author: Tomáš Saska, engineer, main aspects—guidelines for child safety.
research field: transport risk assessment. E-mail: These mentioned standards represent only small part
tomas.saska@tul.cz.
 Transport Risk Assessment for the Environment
of ISO standards concerning risk. More detailed
instruction manuals and techniques are in IEC and EN
standards. These standards regulate many different
aspects of risk.
The principle of risk management is the risk
assessment. Risk assessment is the process composed
of partial processes, which are risk identification, risk
analysis and risk evaluation. The risk assessment
process represents the heart of risk management, as
shown in Fig. 1.
It is necessary to be aware of the activities are the
whole process of risk assessment composed by. It
always depends on solved case type. Otherwise it is
possible to create general model of risk assessment in
accordance with activities description, which have to
Fig. 1 Risk management process. Source: Ref. [1].
411
be done and tools, which are useful for these
activities, but activities and tools selection is
always specific and valid for concrete case. From the
general model of risk assessment, which can not be
shown in the paper due to large graphic extent, it is
possible to deduce risk assessment model of
transportation. This model already contains specific
activities. These activities correspond to the solved
problems.
2. Verification and Validation of Risk Model
Verification and validation are two terms very often
used in technical praxis. These terms are not always
understood equally in different areas. Most often these
terms mean following processes.
412 Transport Risk Assessment for the Environment

Verification is the process by which the proof is got,
and the existing activity was realized according to
specified requirements.
Validation is the process by which the proof is got,
and the product (service) meets relevant requirements
of specifications.
Veracity assessment—solution validity confirmation,
is not generally possible to do on the basis of solution
outcome confrontation with the reality. So it is necessary
to find another way of solution validity assessment of
risk general problem of complex system [2].
Useful way is the description of general problem
solution with the form of technological risk model,
which represents the transformation of risk assessment
general process model to the model which is valid for
risk assessment of concrete complex system. In our
case it is concerned about model for transport risk
assessment for the environment.
Risk technological model for concrete case of
complex system is possible to put together with
different ways. The risk general task is divided
(discretized) into partial problems, which are solved by
concrete tools and with concrete input data. The
generation of specific risk model is shown in Fig. 2.
Risk general task is possible to divide into partial
problems by other ways. These problems are possible
to solve by other tools. The verification and validation
problem is by this access solved in several steps:

Fig. 2 General model of transportation risk assessment for the environment.

 Transport Risk Assessment for the Environment 413

(a) Verification of general task of risk, i.e.  Biotic elements (flora, fauna, ecosystems) [3].
verification of technological model of risk; Environment elements vulnerability:
(b) Verification and validation of partial tasks of risk  Sensitivity;
(solution possibility, used tools and data);  Significance.
(c) Validation of general task of risk. Evaluation criteria:
In the step (a), it is solved the formal correctness of  Legislative;
risk technological model. In steps (b) and (c), it is  Special.
solved the veracity of outcomes obtained by complex
3.2 Evaluation Procedure
system risk assessment. These steps it is necessary to
realize sequentelly. The evaluation requires the application of analysis
models. Partial outputs from single steps represent
3. Process Model of Transportation Risk always the input to the next step. It is useful to do the
Assessment for the Environment evaluation for short route segments. The total risk is
3.1 Input Information then the sum of risks in single route segments.
At the beginning of the evaluation it is necessary to
The transport risk assessment model for the establish the scenarios determining which environment
environment needs several types of input information. elements and types of actual conditions will be taken
It is possible to summarize this information to into account by the evaluation. It is also necessary to
following categories: establish basic and special evaluation criteria for
Goods characteristics: existing problem.
 The quantity of transported substance; In the first step it is necessary to determine the
 Package; accident probability. It can generally depend on goods
 Substance physical parameters. type, traffic situation and actual conditions. It can be
Route characteristics: different in partial route segments according to its
 Traffic conditions; specific characteristics, but it can be set by single value
 Meteorological conditions; flowing from traffic accident statistics.
 Morphology of surroundings terrain. Then it follows the calculations of dangerous
Substance dangerousness: substances spread into the environment. It is mostly
 Toxicity; concerned about sophisticated deterministic physical
 Ecotoxicity; models [4, 5]. But these models are largely different for
 Flammability; different environments (atmosphere, soil, surface water,
 Explosibility; underground water). Large number of physical
 Radioactivity. parameters that these models require and large
Affected zone characteristics: complexity of detailed solution are the problem.
 Population density; Always it is necessary to accomplish some
 Representation of single environment elements simplification of mathematical formulation of the
and its types: problem, which has to respond to requirements for
 Atmosphere; outcome exactness. The outputs are time variable
 Soil; concentration fields of the substance in single types of
 Surface water; the environment.
 Underground water; There are very important dose/response models, but
414 Transport Risk Assessment for the Environment
they are in light of the environment at the time not ideal.
These models should quantify degree of damage of
specific environment element by calculated exposure,
which is the function of substance concentration, fire
heat flux, overpressure by explosion or radiation and
exposure time. Well sophisticated are probit models for
human death probability. In case of the environment
there is a problem of width spectra of natural
environments with different vulnerability against
mentioned dangerous parameters of various substances.
The outcome is the risk level for single environment
elements, so the probability and level of negative effect
is in specific point. The quantitative or
semi-quantitative risk level for single elements is
possible to superimpose for different hazards, most
often for accident effects of one vehicle in different
transport route segments. The outcome is possible to
display on maps.
Final social risk represents the quantification of total
potential damage in threatened area. For its assessment
it is necessary to identify the representation of assessed
environment elements in the area, their range, value
and level of their damage in partial areas of their
occurrence. It is necessary to suit the quantification
procedures to the evaluation purpose. The risk
qauntification is simpler for population and financial
damage. This financial damage is caused by
degradation of farmland quality, agricultural, forest or
fishing produce or reduced land efficiency. Much more
difficult is the quantification of externalities, which
contains services of natural environment for human
(clear atmosphere, clear surface waters, countryside),
biodiversity preservation, nature reserve and protected
areas significance. But also here are some first attemps
to financial quantification [6].
By quantitative formulation at the comparable level
(e.g. monetary units) it is possible to cumulate risks for
single environment elements directly. By semi
quantitative formulation it is necessary to determine
the importance of single elements, eventually of single
evaluation aspects. It is necessary to establish criteria
for risk acceptability evaluation. These criteria have to
respect legislative notes and also they can include
special requirements for specific localities, transport
methods, etc.
4. Uncertainties in Transport Risk
Assessment for the Environment
Different partial problems are encumbered by
uncertainties in varying degrees. Accident probability
assessment is based on accident statistic data. It exists
some disagreements between different institutions
(MDCR, RSD, PP). The thing is not only ordinal
difference. Problems can arise by expression of
different probabilities on roads of different category
and especially in single route segments depending on
their local characteristics. The distribution of large set
to many smaller may lead to reduction of dependability
statistic evaluation.
Many models for dangerous substances spread
calculation are available. Pasquill-Gifford models are
the most used for gas dispersion. More complicated is
the liquid spread calculation at the land surface. Small
roughness, which has random character, largely affects
liquid diffluence in the landscape. It exists verified
infiltration models, but their application is encumbered
by large errors. It is becasuse that parameters of such
model are changed in dependence on actual conditions.
The models of contaminant movement in surface
waters are encumbered by smaller error. It is possible
to agree that the liquid spread is encumbered by larger
uncertainties than the gas dispersion. The range of
possible pollution is by real transport vessel volumes
restricted to tens or maximal first hundreds meters from
the route, so that is why it is mostly possible to consider
these deficiencies as acceptable [7, 8].
The uncertainties in exposure dose calculations
result mostly from the fact that the procedures
(relatively good proof) developed for human
population are used. It is not clear how these
procedures can be used for various environment
elements. It is connected with large uncertainties in
 Transport Risk Assessment for the Environment
damage level assessment of different fauna and flora
forms or underground water reserves. The attention is
focused on economic important nature elements, which
represent however only smaller part of threatened
natural assets. Exposure response assessment for width
variety of natural forms is one of most important
uncertainties sources in whole problem solution.
All above-mentioned uncertainties are reflected to
final social risk value. The level of potential damage in
partial area is necessary to confront with natural objects,
which are situated here. Here, the uncertainty source
can be the necessary categorization of these objects and
formulations of their values.
5. Conclusions
Risk assessment for the environment is much more
difficult than risk assessment for human. It is necessary
to explore risk for single environment elements and
their concrete forms, which occur in threatened area
separately and then to synthesize total risk.
It is useful to put together the technological risk
model. The concrete complex problem is partitioned
into the set of consequential and parallel partial
problems. These problems are then solved by concrete
tools.
Solution procedure of most of partial problems is
possible to verify and often also to validate. It is not
generally valid for exposure dose assessment and
damage level of single nature environment forms.
Validation of whole problem is difficult and
practicable only in simple cases, while it is possible to
do with partial evaluation.
It is necessary to focus on development of
classification tool for evaluation of verification and
validation level of risk technological model. It is
important especially in cases of extreme low
probability of unwanted event and large consequences.
415
Acknowledgments
This research was supported by the Ministry of
Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic,
Project No. 2B08011 “Guidelines for Assessment of
Transport Ways on Biodiversity and Environment
Components”.
References
[1] ISO 31000:2009 Risk Management-Principles and
Guidelines, Czech Office for Standards, Metrology and
Testing, Praha, 2009.
[2] P. Fuchs, Risk Management of Complex Systems
Habilitation Works, Technical University of Liberec,
Liberec, 2010.
[3] M. Chytrý, T. Kučera, M. Kočí, Catalogue of Biotopes of
the Czech Republic, Praha, Agency for Nature
Conservation and Landscape Protection of the Czech
Republic, 2001, p. 307.
[4] Methods for the Calculation of Physical Effects Resulting
from Releases of Hazardous Materials (Liquids and
Gases), (Yellow Book), 3rd ed., Committee for the
Prevention of Disasters (CPR), Directorate-General of
Labour of the Ministry of Social Affairs, The Hague, 2005,
CPR 14E.
[5] D.A. Crowl, J.F. Louvar, Chemical Process Safety:
Fundamentals with Application, PTR Prentice-Hall Inc., A.
Simon & Schuster Company, Englewood Cliffts, New
Jersey, 1990.
[6] J. Seják, Valuing Functions and Services of Ecosystems in
the Czech Republic, FŽP UJEP (Faculty of Environment,
University of J.E.Purkyně in Ústí nad Labem), 2010.
[7] C.S. Simmons, J.M. Keller, Status of Models for Land
Surface Spills of Nonaqueous Liquids [Online],
PNNL-14350, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory,
Richland, 2003,
http://www.pnl.gov/main/publications/external/technical_
reports/PNNL-14350.pdf.
[8] J.M. Keller, C.S. Simmons, The Influence of Selected
Liquid and Soil Properties on the Propagation of Spills
Over Flat Permeable Surfaces [Online], PNNL-15058,
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, 2005,
http://www.pnl.gov/main/publications/external/technical_
reports/PNNL-15058.pdf.
Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering B 1 (2012) 416-425
Formerly part of Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, ISSN 1934-8932
D DAVID PUBLISHING

Relationship between Mire Vegetation and Volcanic

Activity: A Case Study in Tadewara Mire, a Volcanic Mire
in the South-Western Japan

Akira Haraguchi and Ayumi Nakazono

Faculty of Environmental Engineering, The University of Kitakyushu, Kitakyushu 808-0135, Japan

Received: August 18, 2011 / Accepted: October 12, 2011 / Published: March 20, 2012.

Abstract: Relationship between volcanic activity and vegetation change with special reference to chemical environmental change in
soil by volcanic activity has been investigated in Tadewara mire in the Aso-Kujyu volcano area, south western Japan. A core of 420.0
cm depth was collected for peat forming plants analysis and chemical analysis. A distinct peak of sulfur content in peat core was found
at the depth of 105.0-115.0 cm. Chronological changes of dominant species within the peat forming plants community showed both
progressive and retrogressive successions. Vegetation change of Tadewara mire within recent 1000 years showed retrogressive
succession from Sphagnum community to Moliniopsis and Phragmites communities after the sulfur compound deposition, whereas
vegetation showed progressive succession after the deposition of sulfur became smaller. Enrichment of sulfur in sediment core
appeared over the water impermeable layer with clay texture on volcanic ash horizon, and then vegetation change could be induced by
the paludification caused by the clay layer. Deposition of volcanic ash layer and the following formation of water impermeable layer
were dated at 970 ± 40 yBP by 14C dating data, and it corresponded to the eruption of Mount Kurotake recorded at 980 ± 30 yBP.
Retrogressive succession can be the result of hydrological change rather than direct chemical changes in soil.

Key words: Disturbances, paludification, mire, sulfur deposition, vegetation, volcano.

1. Introduction temperature decline and interruption of irradiation and

the consequent influence on vegetation. Blackford et al.
Mire provides habitats for rare or endemic species,
[2] showed the correspondence between eruption of
and mire forms a unique ecosystem isolated from other
Mount Hekla and the decline of Scots pine (Pinus
terrestrial or aquatic ecosystems. Many factors e.g.
sylvestris) pollen decline in northern Scotland in the
climate, topography, geology, and water quality are
mid-Holocene, probably due to the acid deposition or
determining mire vegetation and succession. Volcanic
climatic change caused by the eruption. On the other
activity on mire ecosystem is evident from large to
hand, Hall et al. [3], Dwyer and Mitchell [4] and
small impact on vegetation, hydrology or chemical
Langdon and Barber [5] showed no distinct vegetation
property of soil [1]. Volcanic ash, volcanic gases and
change associated with the climatic change caused by
aerosols emitted by volcanic eruption are the dominant
the eruption of Mount Hekla.
affecting factors on mire vegetation and the effect is
Some reports show the deposition of volcanic ash
evident in mires surrounded by volcanoes such as mires
causes hydrological changes in mires by formation of
in Japan.
impermeable layer. Especially for the visible tephra
Large scale eruption of volcano e.g. Mount Hekla,
with considerable thickness causes the impedance of
Mount St. Helens, causes climatic changes of
the vertical water movement in peat layer, and the
Corresponding author: Akira Haraguchi, professor, Ph.D., consequent water table increase [6]. The impermeable
main research fields: ecology, environmental chemistry. E-mail: tephra layer also forms enriched layers over the tephra
akhgc@kitakyu-u.ac.jp.
 Relationship between Mire Vegetation and Volcanic Activity: A Case Study in Tadewara Mire,
a Volcanic Mire in the South-Western Japan
layer by accumulating macro elements, trace elements
and toxic elements, thus chemical property of peat
layer showed typical property at the tephra layer [6].
Crowley et al. [7] reported that volcanic ash deposition
causes increase of pH and the increase of sulfur
compounds in peat layer. Establishment of aquatic
macrophyte communities after eruption of volcano and
deposition of volcanic ash is reported by Tsuyuzaki [8]
in the Mount Usu, Japan, and by Wells et al. [9] at
Lancashire, U.K. by the deposition of Icelandic
Hekla-4. These reports clarified the paludification after
the deposition of tephra.
Many reports on the effect of volcanic ash on mire
succession clarified that mire vegetation dynamically
changes after deposition of volcanic ash. Tu et al. [10]
showed that vegetation recovery after the volcanic ash
deposition is supported by the buried seed bank
community, although the recruitment from the seed
bank underneath the tephra layer is limited under the
thick tephra layer. However, Tsuyuzaki and Goto [11]
showed that seed bank under the thick (115.0-185.0 cm)
volcanic deposition contains viable seeds even 20 years
after deposition, and then the seed bank is the important
source for revegetation after the volcanic ash
deposition. Tsuyuzaki [12] showed that species
established on the volcanic deposition of 1-3 m
thickness are dominated by species colonized by
vegetative reproduction rather than long-distance
seed-dispersal species. Moral and Eckert [13] showed
the recruitment of species on the volcanic deposition
from the productive patches of refugia. These
researches show that vegetation recovering after the
volcanic ash deposition is promoted by the neighboring
community.
Chemical modification of peat soil by the leaching of
elements from the tephra or the changes in
decomposition rate of peat is considered as an
important factor to cause the vegetation change after
the deposition of volcanic ash on mires. Wolejko and
Ito [14] discussed the uniqueness of the Japanese mires
as compared to mire of the world, and proposed the
417
term “tephratrophic mire” because tephra supplies
nutrients to mire vegetation. Hotes et al. [15] and Hotes
et al. [16] showed that deposition of tephra (up to more
than 25 cm thickness) on several mires in northern
Japan did not cause discernible changes in vegetation
by the determination of stratigraphy and peat forming
plants analysis. Hotes et al. [17] discussed that
vegetation responses are primarily caused by the
physical effects of burial under a mineral layer by the
experimental application of varying quantity of tephra
and ground glass simulating tephra deposition on a
mire. However, chemical effect by ash deposition on
mire vegetation has not been fully clarified.
The objective of this study is to clarify the
relationship between volcanic activity and vegetation
change in mire with special reference to chemical
environment change by volcano in a mire within the
volcanic area in south western Japan.
2. Materials and Methods
2.1 Study Area
In this study, relationship between volcanic activity
and vegetation change has been investigated in Tadewara
mire, a minerotrohic mire in the volcanic mountains area
in the south-western part of Japan (Fig. 1).
Tadewara mire is located on Kujyu volcanos area in
south western Japan (33.07°N, 131.14°E). Mire is
formed on a slope of chain of volcanic peaks and water
is supplied from springs at 1000 m a.s.l. Communities
of Phragmites australis (Cav.) Trin. ex Steud.,
Moliniopsis japonica (Hackel) Hayata, Hydrangea
paniculata Sieb. et Zucc., Sphagnum fimbriatum Wils.
and S. palustre L. dominate in the mire. Eight times of
volcanic eruption has been recorded since 5,000 yBP
around this mire [18]. Thus, Tadewara mire has been
frequently experienced the effect of volcanic activity.
2.2 Peat Core Sampling
Peat core samplings were made at the center of the
Sphagnum dominated mire community by using Tomas
418 Relationship between Mire Vegetation and Volcanic Activity: A Case Study in Tadewara Mire,
a Volcanic Mire in the South-Western Japan
128 130 132 134 136 138 E
38 N
36
34
●
32
30
Fig. 1 Map showing the location of the Tadewara mire and the peat core sampling site in the Aso-Kujyu volcano,
south-western Japan.
type peat sampler (Nose Tekkosho, Okayama, Japan).
One core of 420.0 cm depth from the peat surface with
two preliminary cores (210.0 cm and 270.0 cm depth)
were sampled within the area of 1 m diameter in May
2006 (33.1269° N 131.2381° E). Soil color and texture
were determined at 0.5 cm intervals from the top to the
bottom of each core. If some layers with different color
or texture were included within a 0.5 cm segment, the
segment was divided at the interface of different color
or texture. Thus the core was divided into segments
according to soil color and texture. Soil color was
determined by Munsell Soil Color Charts. Soil texture
was determined after removing organic materials
following USDA (US Department of Agriculture)
classification system [19]. These three cores showed
almost the same profile of soil color and texture, and
then further analysis of peat forming plants, elements
and exchangeable cations were made only on the main
longest core.
2.3 Peat Forming Plants and Chemical Analysis of
Peat Cores
Peat forming plants in core show environmental
condition such as temperature or water condition at the
N
●
core sampling site
0 1.0 2.0 km
time of deposition. Peat forming plants composition
was determined by visual observation with microscope
for main core at each of the layer distinguished by color
and texture. Alive roots or rhizomes are carefully
removed from the core sample. About 0.5 g of fresh
weight of sub-samples were taken from each of the
layer and dispersed in the distilled water. Organic
materials were taken from the dispersed samples and
identified the plant materials by stereoscopic
microscope, optical microscope and scanning electron
microscope. Leaves were used for the identification of
plants materials. Dominant species were determined as
the species with most frequent observation of plant
particles. Abundance of one species was quite high
within a layer, and then only one dominant species can
be determined for each of the layer.
2.4 Chemical Analysis and 14C Dating
Segments of each collected core that was classified
by soil color and texture were weighed, and then oven
dried at 105 °C for more than 24 h. Dried samples were
used for elemental composition analysis-carbon,
hydrogen, nitrogen, and sulfur in peat (Yanako
MT-6CHN, Tokyo, Japan), and acetate extractable K,
 Relationship between Mire Vegetation and Volcanic Activity: A Case Study in Tadewara Mire, 419
a Volcanic Mire in the South-Western Japan

Ca, Mg, and Na concentrations were analyzed. 3. Results

Analysis of C, H, O and S was made for the three cores
There were three dominant plant species in the peat
in order to test the similarity of the replication. 14C
forming plants community in the sediment: Sphagnum
dating by AMS (Accelerator Mass Spectrometer) was
spp., Moliniopsis japonica and Phragmites australis,
made on two horizons at 74.0 cm and 158.0 cm depth
those are the dominant species of the present
(Geo-science laboratory). The depth of 158.0 cm was
community of Tadewara mire. Dominant species
selected as the middle of the 155.0-163.5 cm horizon
within the peat forming plants community showed
that located the lower limit of carbon contents in
frequent chronological changes from the bottom to the
sediment exceeded 5%. The depth of 74.0 cm was
surface sediment layer (Fig. 2). The community in the
selected as the lower limit of the Sphagnum peat that
Tadewara mire showed frequent vegetation change
continues to the present vegetation.

0
2.5Y3/2 CL
5YR2.5/1 CL
5YR4/6 CL
50
108.3 + 0.5 yBP 5YR2.5/1 CL
10YR2/2 CL
74 cm 2.5YR2/1 C
100 10YR2/1 CL
Gley2.5/N C
10YR2/1 SCL
970 + 40 yBP 150 10YR2/1 L
158 cm 10YR4/2 SCL
10YR3/1 L
200 2.5Y3/2 C
2.5Y3/2 CL
2.5Y3/2 C
250 5YR4/2 VG
Gley2.5N L
10YR2/1 L
300 Gley2.5N SiL
10YR2/1 L
Gley2.5N L
350 7.5YR3/1 L
10YR2/1 L
2.5Y3/3 L
400 2.5Y2.5/1 C
2.5Y2.5/1 L
420
Depth (cm)

Sphagnum spp. L: Loam

SiL: Silt Loam
SCL: Sandy Clay Loam
Moliniopsis japonica CL: Clay Loam
C: Clay
Phragmites australis VG: Volcanic Glass

Fig. 2 Dominant peat forming plants component, color and texture of peat core of 420.0 cm length collected from the
Sphagnum spp. dominated site (33.1269° N, 131.2381° E) in the Tadewara mire. Peat core was collected in May 2006. 14C
dating was obtained at two depths of 74.0 cm and 158.0 cm from the surface.
420 Relationship between Mire Vegetation and Volcanic Activity: A Case Study in Tadewara Mire,
a Volcanic Mire in the South-Western Japan

among ombrogenous community (e.g. Sphagnum
community) and minerogenous community (e.g.
Phragmites community). Phragmites australis
dominated peat forming plants community appeared at
depths of 77.5-86.0 cm, 192.5-219.5 cm and
247.5-269.5 cm layers from the present surface, and
Sphagnum spp. dominated community appeared at
depths of 0.0-22.0 cm, 35.0-71.5 cm, 130.5-192.5 cm,
269.5-290.5 cm, 351.5-357.5 cm and 413.0-420.0 cm
layers from the present surface. Other layers were
dominated by Moliniopsis japonica. Conventional
radiocarbon age of 74.0 cm and 158.0 cm depth
determined by 14C dating were 108.2 ± 0.5 yBP
(present) and 970 ± 40yBP, respectively.
The Hue of soil color was almost within 2.5-10YR
and 2.5Y. Four layers with soil color of Gley2.5N
appeared 116.5-143.0 cm, 262.5-270.0 cm,
283.0-298.0 cm and 332.0-342.0 cm layers from the
present surface (Fig. 2). Dominant texture of the upper
part of core was clay silt (CL) and it appeared at depths
of 0.0-93.0 cm, 97.5-116.5 cm and 206.0-210.0 cm
layers from the present surface (Fig. 2). Dominant
texture of the lower part of the core was loam (L) and it
appeared at depths of 157.5-171.0 cm, 182.0-189.0 cm,
262.5-283.0 cm, 298.0-406.0 cm and 412.5-420.0 cm
layers from the present surface. Five clay layers were
observed at depths of 93.0-97.5 cm, 116.5-143.0 cm,
189.0-206.0 cm, 210.0-244.0 cm and 406.0-412.5 cm
layers. Other observed soil texture types are sandy clay
loam (SLC; 143.0-157.0 cm and 171.0-182.0 cm depth
layers) and silt loam (SL; 283.0-298.0 cm depth layer).
Visible volcanic glass layer with little amount of
organic materials was included at 244.0-262.5 cm
depth layer.
Layer of 105.0-115.0 cm depth showed highest
value of total S content (total S = 4.47 %) and the layer
between 88.0 and 145.0 cm depth showed sulfur rich
layer (total S > 1.1 %) among the core (Fig. 3). Total S
contents of the sediment of clay layer at 116.5-143.0
cm segment was > 1.2 % and of SLC layer at
143.0-157.5 cm segment was 0.87 %, and the sulfur
contents of these segments were higher than the
remaining parts of the sediment core. Total S contents
in parts of 0.0-88.0 cm and 169.5-420.0 cm depth layer
was < 0.70 % with local maximum at 287.0-322.5 cm
layers (ca. 0.55%). S/C ratio showed clear peak at
105.0-115.0 cm depth layer (73.5 mol%; Fig. 3) and the
ratio showed local maximum at 188.0-200.5 cm (S/C =
11.2 mol%) and 207.0-215.0 cm (S/C = 8.6 mol%)
layers.

Fig. 3 Sulfur content and sulfur/carbon ratio (mol%) in dry sediment sample collected from Tadewara Mire. Chemical analysis
 Relationship between Mire Vegetation and Volcanic Activity: A Case Study in Tadewara Mire, 421
a Volcanic Mire in the South-Western Japan

was made at 52 points in the core (420.0 cm) according to the soil color and soil texture.

Total C contents in sediment core showed almost
less than 10.0% (comparable to the organic contents <
ca. 20% (w/w)) in the sediment lower than 134.0 cm
depth, whereas total C contents in the sediment layer
over 158.0 cm depth almost constantly exceeded 5.0%
(Fig. 4). Total C contents of the segment of
105.0-115.0 cm (1.2%), 188.0-200.5 cm (1.3%-1.6%)
and 207.0-226.5 cm (0.9%-1.4%) layers showed local
minimum of C contents. Total C and total N contents in
sediment core showed almost parallel chronological
change in the organic materials rich sediment over
158.0 cm depth. Total N contents in sediment core
showed almost less than 0.4% in the sediment lower
than 155.0 cm depth, whereas total N contents in the
sediment layer over 155.0 cm depth almost constantly
exceeded 0.4 % (Fig. 4). Total N contents of the
segment of 105.0-115.0 cm (0.2 %) and 215.0-226.5
cm (< 0.1%) layers showed local minimum of N
contents (Fig. 4).
Among exchangeable macro elements (cations), Na
and K showed parallel chronological change and both the
elements showed maximum at 82.3-88.0 cm depth layer
(Na = 4.2 meq/kg-DW, K = 2.1 meq/kg-DW; Fig. 5).
This layer overlay the sulfur rich layer of total S >
1.0 %. Exchangeable Na and K contents in the core
showed relatively higher value at the 2.5-22.5 cm depth
layer. These elements showed almost constant below
88.0 cm depth with slight increase of K at the bottom
layer. Mg and Ca showed almost under detection limit
at the layer of Na and K enriched segment (82.3-88.0
cm depth layer). Mg and Ca showed parallel
chronological change and showed the higher
concentration at 115.0-176.3 cm layer (Mg = max. 7.3
meq/kg-DW, Ca = max. 106.3 meq/kg-DW; Fig. 5).
Exchangeable Mg and Ca contents in the core showed
relatively lower value at the 2.5-82.3 cm depth layer.
These elements showed local maximum value at
236.5-252.5 cm (Mg = 7.0 meq/kg-DW, Ca = 29.8
meq/kg-DW) and 296.8-305.0 cm (Mg = 6.7
meq/kg-DW, Ca = 42.9 meq/kg-DW) layers.
4. Discussion
The change in the dominant species in the peat
forming plants community showed not only the
progressive (ombrotrophication) succession but also
the retrogressive (minerotrophication) succession
(Fig. 2). Peat forming species changes from the
minerogenous community (e.g. Phragmites
community) to the ombrogenous community (e.g.
Sphagnum community) at most of boreal mires without
any serious disturbance [20]. However, the community
in the Tadewara mire showed frequent vegetation

Fig. 4 Carbon and nitrogen contents in dry sediment sample collected from Tadewara Mire. Chemical analysis was made at 52
422 Relationship between Mire Vegetation and Volcanic Activity: A Case Study in Tadewara Mire,
a Volcanic Mire in the South-Western Japan

points in the core (420.0 cm) according to the soil color and soil texture.

Fig. 5 Concentration of extractable cations (sodium, potassium, magnesium and calcium) in sediment extracted by ammonium
chloride. Chemical analysis was made at 52 points in the core (420.0 cm) according to the soil color and soil texture.

change among ombrogenous and minerogenous
communities, implying the mire received frequent
disturbance which caused mire vegetation change
during the developing process of the mire.
Total C contents in sediment core showed almost
less than 10.0% in the sediment lower than 169.5 cm
depth, thus the sediment layer contained high amount
of mineral deposition (Fig. 3). And then, in this study it
was focused on the sediment layer over 169.5 cm depth
with total C contents almost constantly exceeded 5.0%
and analyzed the vegetation change of mire vegetation
with higher accumulation rate of organic layer (or peat
layer) under humid soil condition. It was found that
mineral materials are the main components of the
sediment layer under the 169.5 cm depth and then the
chronological mire vegetation change is difficult to
detect in the lower part of the sediment core.
Dominant species in the peat forming plants
community in the sediment over the 169.5 cm depth layer
changed retrogressively from Sphagnum to Phragmites
via Moliniopsis community up to 77.5 cm depth,
following the progressive change from Phragmites
community to Sphagnum community via Moliniopsis
community and the present community dominates
Sphagnum accompanying Moliniopsis (Fig. 2). Total C
contents in the layer over 169.5 cm depth was
constantly > 5%, and then the mire vegetation is
continuous to the present vegetation established around
970 ± 40 yBP (158.0 cm depth). Total C contents of the
loam layer at 155.0-163.5 cm showed the local
minimum value of 4.8%, implying the intensive
deposition of loam at the period. Sphagnum species
almost dominated over the depth of 71.5 cm (except for
the layer between 22.5 and 43.0 cm dominating
Moliniopsis), and then the Sphagnum community that
continues to the present vegetation established recently
(108.2 ± 0.5 yBP by 14C dating at 74.0 cm depth). Total
C contents in the sediment core showed local minimum
value of 11.8% at 66.5-71.5 cm layer. Relatively higher
amount of mineral deposition appeared just after 108.2
 Relationship between Mire Vegetation and Volcanic Activity: A Case Study in Tadewara Mire,
a Volcanic Mire in the South-Western Japan
± 0.5 yBP by 14C dating.
Dominant texture of sediment of mineral component
was CL (clay silt) with C (clay) layer at 116.5-143.0
cm layer and 93.0-97.5 cm layer (Fig. 2). Two layers of
clay appeared in the sediment under the 169.5 cm depth.
Clay layer made water impermeable layer, and then
several water impermeable layers were discernible
within the sediment core. Clay layer overlay the loam
layer deposited around 970 ± 40 yBP, and the clay
layer deposited just after the deposition of loam. Layer
of 105.0-115.0 cm depth overlying the clay layer
showed highest value of total S content (4.5%) and S/C
ratio (73.5 mol%; Fig. 3) whereas local minimum value
of total C (2.3%) and total N (0.2%; Fig. 4) appeared at
the horizon. Then the layer of 105.0-115.0 cm was a
mineral rich sediment layer containing higher amount
of sulfur compounds deposited over the water
impermeable layer of clay layer. Total S contents of the
sediment of clay layer at 116.5-143.0 cm segment
was > 1.2% and of SLC layer at 143.0-157.5 cm
segment was 0.87%, and the sulfur contents of these
segments were higher than the remaining parts of the
sediment core. Sulfur in these segments would be
originated from the volcanic ash or the secondary
sediment after the migration of the primary deposited
sediment by the volcanic eruption. According to the
14
C dating data of 970 ± 40 yBP just under the sulfur
rich layer, eruption of Mount Kurotake (33.104° N,
131.297° E, 6.3 km east-south-east of core sampling
point at Tadewara mire) at 980 ± 30 yBP [21] can be a
possible source of sulfur in the sediment.
Change in the dominant species in peat forming
plants community in the segment showed retrogressive
succession from Sphagnum community to Moliniopsis
community at 130.5 cm depth and then from
Moliniopsis community to Phragmites community at
86.0 cm depth. The segments showing retrogressive
succession (between 86.0 and 130.5 cm) corresponded
to the sulfur rich parts (total S > 1.1%) of sediment core.
The progressive succession from Phragmites
community to Moliniopsis community started at 77.5
423
cm depth and total S contents in the sediment at the
depth was 0.33%. Thus the retrogressive succession
corresponded to the sulfur enrichment in the sediment
and the progressive succession corresponded to the
sulfur exhausting in the sediment. Sediment layer with
extremely high total S content (4.47% at 105.0-115.0
cm layer) could deposit on the water impermeable clay
layer at 115.0-145.0 cm depth and then the deposition
of mineral S compounds (e.g. CaSO4) could occur
under the waterlogged condition created by the water
impermeable clay layer. Thus the main factor of the
retrogressive vegetation change from Sphagnum
community to Moliniopsis and Phragmites
communities could be the paludification by the water
impermeable clay layer. Paludification of mires by the
water impermeable volcanic deposition has been
reported by Vleeschouwer et al. [6] and the vegetation
change by the paludification is the common process in
volcanic mires. Clay layer appeared at 93.0-97.5 cm
depth and the vegetation change from Moliniopsis
community to Phragmites community could occur by
further progress of paludification by the water
impermeable clay layer.
Clay layer appeared at 189.0-206.0 cm, 210.0-244.0
cm and 406.0-412.5 cm layers. Vegetation change from
Sphagnum community to Moliniopsis community
appeared at around 413.0 cm layer, and vegetation
change from Moliniopsis community to Phragmites
community appeared at around 219.5 cm layer. The
vegetation change was explained by the paludification
by the formation of clay layer. Vegetation change from
Phragmites community to Sphagnum community
appeared at around the clay layer at 192.5 cm segment,
and this vegetation change was not due to the
paludification. Rapid deposition of large amount of
volcanic ejects could also cause terrestrialization and
the consequent colonization of Sphagnum species on
the water impermeable layer. Total C contents of the
segment of 188.0-215.0 cm layer (clay or clay loam
texture) showed local minimum of 1-3%. Higher S/C
ratio (10 mol%) at the layer showed the rapid mineral
424 Relationship between Mire Vegetation and Volcanic Activity: A Case Study in Tadewara Mire,
a Volcanic Mire in the South-Western Japan
deposition compared as the deposition of organic
materials in the 188.0-200.5 cm segment. And thus the
formation of clay layer in this period could cause the
terrestrialization rather than paludification.
Establishment of Sphagnum community promoted peat
deposition and then the total C contents over the
segment increased. Although formation of clay layers
not necessarily causes paludification, it could be the
factor to change the hydrological change in mire and
the changes in vegetation.
Total C and total N contents in sediment core
showed almost parallel chronological change in the
organic materials rich sediment over 155.0 cm depth,
implying that most of nitrogen in the sediment were in
organic form (Fig. 4). Among exchangeable macro
elements (cations), Na and K showed parallel
chronological change and both the elements showed
maximum at 82.3-88.0 cm depth layer (Fig. 5). This
layer overlay the sulfur rich layer of total S > 1.0%. Mg
and Ca showed almost under detection limit at the layer
of Na and K enriched segment. Mg and Ca showed
parallel chronological change and showed the higher
concentration at 115.0-176.3 cm layer (Fig. 5). This
part of the sediment core contains high amount of clay
and then exchangeable Mg and Ca were adsorbed on
clay materials. Amount of exchangeable Na and K
adsorbed on clay were relatively lower than Mg and Ca,
whereas Na and K showed maximum at organic layer
dominated by Phragmites peat, and then Na and K
appeared mostly included in Phragmites plants or
Phragmites dominated peat.
Changes in chemical composition of sediment
caused by the volcanic eruption appeared only for
sulfur. Although causes of volcanic activity on
exchangeable cations in sediment were also evident,
the process of changing exchangeable cation contents
is not clear. Deposition of clay causes the adsorption of
Mg and Ca and the consequent changes in soil
chemistry. Enrichment of sulfur in soil causes
retrogressive succession, however the vegetation
change can be the result of hydrological change rather
than chemical changes in soil. Large scale disturbance
caused by volcanic activity e.g. Mount Hekla [2, 5, 22]
has possibility to affect vegetation change not only the
neighboring area but also remote area from the volcano.
Disturbance by the volcano in Aso-Kujyu volcanic area
would be limited to the local area, and then the effect of
volcanic activity causes the vegetation change within
the volcanic area. However, the hydrological change in
mire would affect the vegetation largely, and the
hydrological disturbance is the important factor on
vegetation change in volcanic mires. In the case of
hydrological disturbance, however, species
composition of vegetation after the disturbance would
strongly relate to the hydrological condition of the site.
Then, vegetative reproduction from the refugia would be
the dominant process after the disturbance [12, 13].
Mires within the volcanic area experience strong
disturbance accompanying with hydrological change,
not only the deposition of tephra. Hydrological change
would be the strong determinant factor compared as the
chemical impact caused by the tephra deposition, and
hence the evident vegetation change was observed in the
Tadewara mire, whereas discernible vegetation change
was not observed after tephra deposition on coastal
mires studied by Hotes et al. [15] and Hotes et al. [16].
5. Conclusion
A distinct peak of sulfur content in peat core was
found at the depth of 105.0-115.0 cm of the core
collected in Tadewara mire in the Aso-Kujyu volcano
area, south western Japan. Elemental compositions of
peat core show that content of carbon, nitrogen, and
hydrogen decreased corresponding to the increase of
sulfur. Vegetation change of Tadewara mire in the
Aso-Kujyu volcano area within recent 1,000 years
showed retrogressive succession from Sphagnum
community to Moliniopsis and Phragmites
communities after the sulfur compound deposition,
whereas vegetation showed progressive succession
after the deposition of sulfur became smaller.
Enrichment of sulfur in sediment core appeared over
 Relationship between Mire Vegetation and Volcanic Activity: A Case Study in Tadewara Mire,
a Volcanic Mire in the South-Western Japan
the water impermeable layer with clay texture on
volcanic ash horizon, and then vegetation change could
be induced by the paludification caused by the clay
layer. Deposition of volcanic ash layer and the
following formation of water impermeable layer
corresponded to the eruption of Mount Kurotake
recorded at 980 ± 30 yBP. Retrogressive succession
can be the result of hydrological change rather than
direct chemical changes in soil.
Acknowledgments
The authors thank to the members of the ecology
laboratory of The University of Kitakyushu for their
assistance in field investigation. This work was
funded by The Seven-eleven Midorinokikin Fund.
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[3] V.A. Hall, H. Jonathan, R. Pilcher, F.G. McCormac,
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[4] R.B. Dwyer, F.J.G. Mitchell, Investigation of the
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[5] P.G. Langdon, K.E. Barber, Snapshots in time: Precise
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Scotland using mid-Holocene tephras, The Holocece 14
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[6] F. de Vleeschouwer, B. van V. Lanoé, N. Fagel, Long
term mobilization of chemical elements in tephra-rich peat
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[7] S.S. Crowley, D.A. Dufek, R.W. Stanton, T.A. Ryer, The
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[10] M. Tu, J.H. Titus, S. Tsuyuzaki, R. Del Moral,
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[11] S. Tsuyuzaki, M. Goto, Persistence of seed bank under
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[13] R. del Moral, A. Eckert, Colonization of volcanic deserts
from productive patches, American Journal of Botany 92
(2005) 27-36.
[14] L. Wolejko, K. Ito, Mire of Japan in relation to mire zone,
volcanic activity and water chemistry, Japanese Journal of
Ecology 35 (1986) 575-586.
[15] S. Hotes, P. Poschlod, H. Sakai, T. Inoue, Vegetation,
hydrology and development of a coastal mire in Hokkaido,
Japan, affected by flooding and tephra deposition,
Canadian Journal of Botany 79 (2001) 341-361.
[16] S. Hotes, P. Poschlod, H. Takahashi, Effect of volcanic
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561-573.
[17] S. Hotes, P. Poschlod, H. Takahashi, P. Groottjans, E.
Adema, Effect of tephra deposition on mire vegetation: A
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[18] H. Kamata, H. Hoshizumi, Y. Kawanabe, Eruption history
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Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering B 1 (2012) 426-432
Formerly part of Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, ISSN 1934-8932
D DAVID PUBLISHING

The Natural Forest Protection Program in China: A

Contingent Valuation Study in Heilongjiang Province

Frida Edström1, Hanna Nilsson1 and Jesper Stage2

1. Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg 40530, Sweden
2. Department of Social Sciences, Mid Sweden University, Sundsvall 85170, Sweden

Received: September 1, 2011 / Accepted: October 14, 2011 / Published: March 20, 2012.

Abstract: In 1998, the Chinese Government implemented the NFPP (Natural Forest Protection Program), which included logging
restrictions, protected areas, replanting, and a range of other policies aimed at safeguarding the state of the country’s forests and
reducing the risk of erosion and flooding. A second phase of this program is currently being discussed. In this paper, contingent
valuation is used to estimate the WTP (willingness to pay) for maintaining the program among the inhabitants in Heilongjiang Province
in northern China. The results show that, even with fairly conservative assumptions, the aggregated WTP for maintaining the program
for another five years is some 3.24 billion yuan per year. This can be compared with the current cost of the Program in the province,
which is some 1.57 billion yuan per year.

Key words: China, Heilongjiang, natural forest protection program, contingent valuation.

1. Introduction 2. The Natural Forest Protection Program

In this paper, it studies the WTP (willingness to pay)
for continuing the NFPP (National Forest Protection
Program) 1 among the inhabitants of Heilongjiang
Province in China. Maintaining China’s forests is
crucial for maintaining forestry activities in the region
in the longer term, as well as for reducing erosion and
flood risks. At the same time, however, the program
entails limiting the scope for forestry activities in the
short term. It is, therefore, of interest to study how
people in the affected areas perceive the program.
Using the contingent valuation method, it is found
that people in Heilongjiang see the program as a net
positive. Even with the most pessimistic assumptions
about their WTP, the overall WTP is found to be
considerably higher than the cost of the program,
meaning that maintaining the program would generate
a net benefit to the population of the Province.
1 planting [2]. A number of more specific goals were also
The Chinese use of Program in the official English version
of the name is retained here.
Corresponding author: Jesper Stage, professor, research
field: environmental economics. E-mail:
Jesper.Stage@miun.se.
In 1998, large floods in the Yangtze and Yellow
Rivers caused the deaths of 3,600 people as well as
economic damages estimated at 248 billion yuan [1].2
To prevent future disasters of this kind, the State
Forestry Administration proposed that 95 million ha of
natural forest should be protected until 2010 under the
NFPP, also known as the logging ban or the Natural
Forest Conservation Project. This program entails strict
logging quotas, performance targets for state forest
companies, and subsidies for afforestation and
reforestation, as well as other forest conservation
activities [2].
The overall goals of the NFPP were to reduce round
wood production in the areas concerned in order to
conserve about 90 million ha of natural forest, and to
afforest or reforest an additional 31 million ha by 2010
through mountain closures, aerial seeding and manual
2
China has a fixed exchange rate against the US dollar, and 1
yuan = approximately 15 US cents.
 The Natural Forest Protection Program in China: A Contingent Valuation Study in Heilongjiang Province 427
set up in 1997, such as a 20 million m3 reduction in
overall timber harvests by 2003. A second specific goal
was to conserve 42 million ha of natural forest in the
upper reaches of the Yangtze River, the upper and
middle reaches of the Yellow River, and in Inner
Mongolia, North-east China, the Xinjiang Uigur
Autonomous Region, and Hainan Province. A third
goal was to establish 21 million ha of timber
plantations between 2000 and 2005 in the upper
reaches of the Yangtze River and the upper and middle
reaches of the Yellow River [3].
The State Council committed 96 billion yuan to
finance the program during the first decade of the 21st
century [4]. Some 22 billion yuan had already been
spent between 1998 and 2000. Much of this
expenditure was in the form of subsidies to state forest
enterprises [2, 4].
Several different policies have been implemented in
support of the NFPP. A special team of forestry police
has been established, for example, and full-time guards
are being employed to enforce forest protection and
restrain illegal cutting. State forest workers are being
re-deployed and resettled. Other activities are small
investment projects that are being introduced to
demonstrate the potential for new, profitable
state-owned activities. Provincial governments are also
receiving funds from the central government to assist
workers who become unemployed as a result of the
program. In addition, the central government pays
retirees a pension to reduce the cost to state-owned
forest enterprises [3].
Most research and assessment efforts linked to the
NFPP have focused on physical indicators such as
changes in harvested timber, newly forested area, and
degree of soil erosion (see e.g. Ref. [5] for a discussion
of this). Judging by these indicators, the NFPP has
largely been successful. Timber harvests from China’s
natural forests decreased by over 50% from 1997 to
2000, that is, from 32 million m3 to 14 million m3 [1].
Moreover, in the first years of the program, the
harvesting of natural forest ceased in 13 Provinces and,
by 2000, the total area without logging had reached 8.9
million ha [5]. By late 2002, 3.05 million ha had been
reforested and 2.29 million ha of mountainous lands
had been closed off from human activity in order to
allow forests to regenerate [6].
However, the effects of the program have not been
positive for all actors. Directly after its implementation,
state-owned wood processing enterprises experienced
major reductions in production and export volumes.
Before the NFPP, many of the smaller-scale enterprises
had operated with old and outdated equipment as well
as inefficient management, so there had been little
accountability for their costs and revenues. There was
also a lack of knowledge about the basic elements of
competitiveness under the former centrally planned
system. Nonetheless, these enterprises had been viable
because of the low price of raw materials. Following
the NFPP’s implementation and the consequent
increase in competitiveness and in the price of raw
materials, several of these enterprises had to reduce or
entirely cease production [3].
These major changes in output of timber and activity
in the state forest companies caused significant
changes in their labour structure. Some 1.2 million
logging and processing workers worked in the
companies concerned. By 2002, however, about
two-thirds of these workers had left the sector. To
reduce the negative impacts of these changes, local
governments and state forest enterprises attempted to
restructure the forest industry and boost employment
opportunities in other sectors [6].
State Forestry Administration sources indicate that
approximately 60% of central government subsidies to
the affected areas were used for employment costs in
state forest enterprises, and that subsidies paid to such
enterprises had frequently been higher than their
foregone profits. As a consequence of these generous
subsidies, those state forest enterprises that had already
suffered from reduced forest availability tended to
welcome the program and the financial support it
provided. State-owned forest enterprises with a
428 The Natural Forest Protection Program in China: A Contingent Valuation Study in Heilongjiang Province
stronger resource base were not as positive towards the
program [7].
Although most of the major impacts of the NFPP
were anticipated, the extent of some of the
socio-economic effects was unexpected. There have
also been some unforeseen negative impacts on other
industries and on local economies. In many state forest
enterprise areas, the economic structure has changed
from complete domination by timber production to a
reliance on multiple industries-a development which
was anticipated by the central government. Restaurants,
hotels and other service industries have expanded in
many forestry areas. However, there are also examples
of the opposite effect [5], and case studies conducted
by the China Council for International Cooperation on
Environment and Development Forest Grassland Task
Force suggest that the NFPP has led to income
reductions for a range of stakeholders. Forest
enterprises, collective forest owners, rural households
in the NFPP areas, and local government dependent on
the forestry sector for revenue have all been affected
[7]. For local governments, revenue has also been
substantially diminished by the loss of income from
processing and logging [6].
Moreover, rural households outside the state-owned
forest enterprises have suffered particularly from the
loss of access to forest resources and forest-related
opportunities. They do not have the same benefits as
the workers at state-owned forest enterprises do in
terms of the public support programs, since they do not
receive compensation for income losses associated
with the NFPP [7]. On the other hand, if the NFPP had
not been implemented, unsustainable use of the forest
in China would have continued, and the loss of forest
would have caused income losses at some point in any
case. This means that although the program reduces
current income, it can increase future income by
ensuring future forest availability. It should thus be
seen as a shift in income rather than as a reduction of
overall income. In addition to these use values from the
forest, there are other, non-use values from the forest
that are preserved as a result of the program. However,
the affected stakeholders might not see it in this light.
An average citizen should gain from the Program
because, by limiting other people’s use of the forest, it
guarantees the maintenance of the forest for future use
and ensures that the improved future benefits will be
substantially higher than the current loss of benefits. In
principle, therefore, people should be prepared to pay
to maintain the program. In practice, people may value
the current loss of forest use more than the future
revenue from conserving the forest, because the current
impacts are more certain. By examining whether or not
people are, in fact, willing to pay to maintain the
program, one can see how highly they value the forest’s
future availability.
3. The Study Area: Heilongjiang Province
Heilongjiang Province is located in north-eastern
China (Fig. 1). The Province measures 454,000 km2,
and comprises some 5% of China’s total surface area.
In this part of China, the NFPP has consisted of a
logging reduction rather than an outright logging ban.
During the 1980s, major investments were made in
the state-owned wood processing industry in northern
China since the government believed it would improve
job opportunities for the locals. However, because of
efficiency problems, this did not happen; and in the
1990s, the state companies were gradually privatised.
Fig. 1 Heilongjiang province.
 The Natural Forest Protection Program in China: A Contingent Valuation Study in Heilongjiang Province 429

The long-term effect of this privatisation has been
higher employment and higher wages. After the
implementation of the NFPP, more timber was
imported from Russia, and a sizeable share of it has
since been processed in Heilongjiang.
Nonetheless, the implementation of the NFPP has
caused major changes in the labour structure in
state-forest enterprises in Heilongjiang. As Fig. 2
illustrates, almost half of the workforce was laid off
between 1997 and 2000. In the same period, the output
of timber from Heilongjiang Province was reduced by
about a third (Fig. 3).
In this study, contingent valuation is used to measure
the WTP among the people of Heilongjiang in respect
of maintaining the program. During the period 2004 to
2008, the expenditure on the NFPP in Heilongjiang
was, on average, 1.57 billion yuan per year [8].
Two cities in Heilongjiang province were sampled,
one of which was the provincial capital, Harbin. The
city is an important transportation centre in
north-eastern China, and several highways and
railways are linked to it. Harbin, which has
industrialised rapidly in recent decades, is a part of the
great Manchurian industrial complex of metallurgical,

Number of people

600000
500000
400000
300000 People employed
200000
100000
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year

Fig. 2 Employment in state-owned forestry in Heilongjiang province (source: Ref. [8]).

Output of timber
(cubic metres)
7000000
6000000
5000000
4000000
Output of timber
3000000
2000000
1000000
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year

Fig. 3 Output of timber in Heilongjiang province (source: Ref. [8]).

430 The Natural Forest Protection Program in China: A Contingent Valuation Study in Heilongjiang Province
machinery mechanical, chemical, petroleum and coal
industries. The Harbin area has a population of
approximately 9.4 million, of which approximately 3.3
million are urban residents. The city plays a major role
in China’s forest industry [2].
The other sampled city was Yichun, which has a
population of 1.3 million. This makes it a small rural
town by Chinese standards. The area is dominated by
economic activities linked to the forest, including
commercial forestry as well as tourism in the protected
forest areas.
4. Data and Econometric Specification
When conducting the survey in Harbin, the authors
recruited the help of students from the North-east
Forestry University in Heilongjiang. A total of 80
respondents were surveyed. In the Yichun area, another
81 respondents (all located in the Youhao forest area)
were surveyed with help from employees of the
Youhao Forest Bureau as well as the students
mentioned earlier.
The contingent valuation question used a payment
card with a list of possible amounts where the
respondents simply marked the highest amount that
they were willing to pay. This made it easier to use
Chinese students and foresters as intermediaries, and
was cheaper and less time-consuming than conducting
more extensive face-to-face interviews [9].
Descriptive statistics from the survey are provided in
Table 1. The respondents’ budget constraints were
captured by asking about average monthly
expenditures on important items. In developing
Table 1 Descriptive statistics.
N Average
Willingness to pay 151
Monthly expenditure in yuan 155
Location dummy (1 = Yichun, 0 = Harbin) 161
Important to preserve the forest (1 = Yes) 159
Important to preserve the environment
160
(1 = Yes, always OR Yes, sometimes)
Use values from the forest (1 = Yes) 155
Privately employed (1 = Yes) 159
countries, it is generally better to ask for the
respondents’ expenditures instead of their income [10].
Moreover, questions about income tend to be very
sensitive in China.
The options on the payment card ranged from 0 yuan
to a WTP that exceeded 350 yuan, with steps of 10
yuan at a time. The payment was described as being an
annual one over a five-year period. In order to keep the
payment card as simple as possible, the card did not
provide an option to state a negative WTP. However,
25 (approximately 17%) of the 151 respondents to the
WTP question stated that they were not willing to pay
anything. Some of these may well have a negative
WTP for the program, meaning that they would be
willing to pay to have the program ended. Only four of
the respondents stated a WTP in excess of 350 yuan,
the upper bound, so this is a less important issue for our
analysis.
Of the 161 respondents, 159 replied “Yes, always” to
a question on whether it was important to preserve the
forest, while the last two respondents did not reply to
the question. A subsequent question asked the
respondents why they thought it important to preserve
the forest. The two dominating reasons the respondents
gave were “I think it is important to preserve the forest
for future generations” and “I think it is important to
preserve the habitats for the animals living in the
forest”. Both of these reasons are non-use values. Of
the 155 respondents to this question, 141 provided only
non-use values as their reason for wishing to preserve
the forest, while 14 also provided use values. A total of
147 of the 160 respondents further stated that it was
Median Minimum Maximum
112 100 0 350
1,136 850 20 6,200
0.503 1 0 1
1 1 1 1
0.919 1 0 1
0.090 0 0 1
0.063 0 0 1
 The Natural Forest Protection Program in China: A Contingent Valuation Study in Heilongjiang Province 431

Table 2 Regression results.

Robust OLS Tobit
Coefficient Standard error Coefficient Standard error
Monthly expenditure 0.0389*** 0.0083 0.0429*** 0.0093
Yichun dummy 51.319** 16.592 56.821** 18.877
Important-to-preserve-environment
76.218** 27.048 102.151** 32.592
dummy
Use-value dummy 65.243* 27.401 72.685* 30.997
Private-employment dummy 76.914* 31.610 82.632* 35.598
Constant -33.328 28.661 -74.775* 34.921
Adj. R2/pseudo-R2 0.2172 0.0252
N 142 142
*, ** and *** denote statistical significance at the 5%, 1%, and 0.1% level, respectively.

important to protect the environment in general.
A robust ordinary least-squares regression was
estimated with WTP as a function of income and a set
of dummy variables, as follows:
 One for the respondent’s place of living;
 One for whether the respondent had stated use
values as a reason to preserve the forest;
 One for whether the respondent thought it
important to protect the forest in general;
 One for whether the respondent was privately
employed.
Various combinations of logarithmic and linear
specifications, as well as additional variables were also
tried, with largely similar results. However, the linear
specification performed best in terms of statistical fit.
In order to capture the potential additional effect of
the zero WTP responses, a tobit function was also
estimated, with WTP as a function of the same
explanatory variables. As with the OLS version, the
linear model performed best in terms of statistical fit.
5. Results
The mean value of the combined WTP for both
Yichun and Harbin is 112 yuan per year for five years.
The total population of Heilongjiang is 38 million, of
whom approximately 30 million are over the age of 15,
i.e. the age cut-off used in our survey. This means that
the aggregate WTP amounts to some 3.4 billion yuan
per year. This value is much higher than the current
annual cost of the program.
The results from the OLS and tobit regressions are
shown in Table 2. They are largely similar for both
these specifications, and the signs of the coefficients
are largely as expected. WTP increases with rising
income (or, rather, expenditure). Inhabitants in the
more rural Yichun area have a higher WTP than Harbin
residents. Respondents who had use values for the
forest rather than merely non-use values, and
respondents who felt that environmental conservation
was important in general, had a higher WTP. Less
obvious, perhaps, is why privately employed
respondents have a higher WTP. However, this result is
statistically significant in both the OLS and tobit
specifications.
Evaluated at the sample mean values for the various
explanatory variables, the OLS results give an average
WTP of 117 yuan per year-quite close to the actual
sample average for WTP. If one interprets the latent
variable from the tobit regression as the actual WTP
(thus including imputed negative values for those
respondents who gave their WTP as zero) and
evaluates this model at the sample mean values, one
gets an average WTP of 108. Thus, the difference
between the OLS and the tobit estimate is not huge, and
most of the negative-WTP respondents are imputed to
have negative values that are only slightly below zero.
6. Conclusions
This paper examines if it would be socially
beneficial to sustain the NFPP in Heilongjiang
432 The Natural Forest Protection Program in China: A Contingent Valuation Study in Heilongjiang Province
Province for another five years. It is found that 83% of
the respondents were willing to pay to maintain the
program for that period.
The sample average for the WTP is 112 yuan. More
sophisticated WTP functions estimated using either
OLS or tobit specifications, provide values for average
WTP that are similar in size. Assuming that these
values are true reflections of the population’s WTP, the
overall WTP to preserve the program would be
somewhere between 3.24 billion and 3.52 billion yuan
per year, which can be compared with the current cost
of 1.57 billion yuan per year. Therefore, the results
indicate that it would be socially beneficial to keep the
NFPP for at least another five years in Heilongjiang
Province, even with the current, relatively costly,
set-up. Moreover, as mentioned earlier, some of the
state forest companies have received compensating
subsides that were higher than their actual losses due to
the NFPP. Thus, the NFPP is unnecessarily costly, and
the net social gains could be made even greater if the
funds were used more efficiently. Even if this does not
happen, however, the results indicate that the program
should continue.
Acknowledgments
The authors are grateful to Dr. Xuemei Jiang and
Prof. Jintao Xu at Peking University as well as Prof.
Jun Cao at North-east Forestry University in Harbin for
help with practical arrangements and for numerous
important insights into Chinese forestry. The authors
are also indebted to Yuanyuan Yi, Master’s student at
the University of Gothenburg, and Lijuan Liu,
Master’s student at the North-east Forest University in
Harbin, for help with ideas, contacts, and translation.
Financial support from the Swedish International
Development Cooperation Agency and from Elforsk is
gratefully acknowledged. Any opinions and mistakes
herein are the sole responsibility of the authors.
References
[1] T. Ma, Interconnected Forests: Global and Domestic
Impacts of China’s Forestry Conservation, China
Environmental Health Project Research Brief, China
Environmental Health Project, United States Agency for
International Development, Washington DC, 2008.
[2] M.T. Bennett, X. Jiang, J. Xu, Household income growth,
diversification and the implicit costs of reform: The case
of China’s state forest sector, Environmental Economics
Program Working Paper, College of Environmental
Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 2008.
[3] Y. Yang, Impacts and effectiveness of logging bans in
natural forests: People’s Republic of China, in: P.B. Durst,
T.R. Waggener, T. Enters, T.L. Cheng (Eds.), Forests out
of Bounds: Impacts and Effectiveness of Logging Bans in
Natural Forests in Asia-Pacific, Food and Agricultural
Organisation of the United Nations, Bangkok, 2001, pp.
81-102.
[4] J. Xu, W.F. Hyde, Changing ownership and management
of state forest plantations: China, in: International
Conference of the International Institute for Environment
and Development, Cape Town, Nov. 6-8, 2002.
[5] J. Liu, S.X. Li, Z.Y. Ou’yang, C. Tam, X.D. Chen,
Ecological and socioeconomic effects of China’s policies
for ecosystem services, PNAS 105 (2008) 9477-9482.
[6] J. Xu, R.S. Yin, Z. Li, C. Liu, China’s ecological
rehabilitation: Unprecedented efforts, dramatic impacts,
and requisite policies, Ecological Economics 57 (2006)
595-607.
[7] J. Xu, E. Katsigiris, T.A. White, Implementing the Natural
Forest Protection Program and the Sloping Land
Conversion Program: Lessons and Policy
Recommendations, China Forestry Publishing House,
Beijing, 2002.
[8] China’s Forest Statistical Yearbooks, China Forestry Press,
Beijing, 1997-2008.
[9] G. Garrod, K.G. Willis, Economic Valuation of the
Environment, Edward Elgar Publishing, Northampton,
1999.
[10] A. Deaton, The Analysis of Household Surveys: A
Micro-Econometrics Approach to Development Policy,
The Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, 1997.
Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering B 1 (2012) 433-440
Formerly part of Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering, ISSN 1934-8932
D DAVID PUBLISHING

Prediction of the Maximum Flow by the Model SASIS:

Sensibility to the Empirical Parameters of the Shape of
the Furrow

Roberto Vieira Pordeus1, Carlos Alberto Vieira Azevedo2, Valéria Ingrith Almeida Lima1, Silvanete Severino
Silva3, Gleidson Vieira Marques3 and José Dantas Neto2
1. Department of Environmental Science and Technology, Rural Federal University of Semi-Arid, Mossoró 59625-900, Brazil
2. Department of Agricultural Engineering, Federal University of Campina Grande, Campina Grande 58429-140, Brazil
3. Department of Technological Sciences, Rural Federal University of Semi-Arid, Angicos 59515-000, Brazil

Received: June 15, 2011 / Accepted: August 19, 2011 / Published: March 20, 2012.

Abstract: The model developed in this research presents effective mechanisms in simulations of a discharge strip understood
between the minimum and the maximum allowable values, aiming to determine the relationship between discharge and water
application efficiency, deep percolation and runoff rates, and consequently to optimize the performance of the furrow irrigation
systems with continuous flow. The flow applied in each furrow must be adapted to the length, to the field slope and to the nature of
the ground. The authors studied the maximum non erosive flow (Qmax), in function of parameters obtained from the dimensions of the
furrow, being 1 and 2, respectively, the linear and exponential parameters of the potential functions that described the relationship
between the area of the cross section of flow (or wetted perimeter) and height of flow; in this way, the multiplicative effect of 1 on
the area of the cross section of flow is linear, while 2 is exponential. It verified a conjugated effect of 1 and 2 on the value of Qmax.
The results of this research point out for the importance of having an estimate of the parameters of the geometry of the cross section
of flow (1 and 2) the most precise as possible, being known that the dimensions of this section can result in impracticable values of
Qmax, outside of the acceptable strip in the literature, that is from 1.2 to 4.0 L·s-1. This sensibility analysis was also of great benefit to
create an interface in the software SASIS, capable to guide the user of this tool in the input of appropriate values for 1 and 2 to the
process of simulation of the irrigation for furrow with continuous flow and of the optimization of its performance.

Key words: Furrow irrigation, simulation, optimization.

1. Introduction comprehend the necessity of improving its efficiency.

Although the surface irrigation is the most widely
It is important to observe that irrigation represents
used one of the world, it is considered as low
the most intense use of the water resourses,
efficiency in water application, especially the furrow
accounting for about 80% of fresh water consumption
irrigation system, in which the ones of open furrow
of the world; also, it may adduce for bodies of surface
are responsible for the lower levels of efficiency. The
and groundwater the substances used to the increasing
low efficiency in the surface irrigation systems is due
agricultural productivity. Among such substances,
mainly to the lack of a careful design and to the
synthetic fertilizers and pesticides are highlighted.
practice of improper management of irrigation.
Considering that, nowadays, irrigation consumes
According to Rezende et al. [1], reduced levels of
about 80% of the available water, it is easy to
performance in furrow irrigation systems can be
Corresponding author: Roberto Vieira Pordeus, Ph.D., attributed to the incorrect design as well as to the
main research fields: irrigation and drainage. E-mail: unsatisfactory operation and management.
rpordeus@ufersa.edu.br.
434 Prediction of the Maximum Flow by the Model SASIS: Sensibility to the Empirical
Parameters of the Shape of the Furrow
In order to improve the efficiency of water
application and distribution, in some projects, it has
used the maximun non erosive flow to reduce the flow
from 30% to 50% when the advance front reaches the
end of the furrow; another alternative is the use of
intermittent flow in the water distribution in the
furrows; these two methods, despite their
improvement in the performance of the furrow
irrigation systems, presented the disadvantage of
requiring more labor force and more investment in
equipments from the farmer. In practice, it is observed
that the use of constant flow is predominates in the
furrow irrigation projects and what is, probably, due
to the tradition of the farmer in using only one flow in
the water application during irrigation, and the
easiness of operation, both with the use of siphons and
through ditches, in the water distribution in the
furrows.
In furrow irrigation with free drainage, the greater
the flow, the greater the risks of losses by percolation
and the greater the flow, the greater the risks of losses
by runoff at the end of the furrow. According to
Carvalho et al. [2], the flow applied in the furrows is
one of the factors which most affect the efficiency of
water application and uniform distribution and, thus, a
constant flow application, which is the most used
management strategy, offers great risks to these two
aspects of the performance of the system. The choice
of a greater flow would cause a fast advance phase
decreasing, consequently, the losses by deep
percolation and the uneven of water distribution
increasing, however, the losses by surface runoff,
while in the choice of a smaller flow the opposite is
true.
According to Carvalho et al. [3], another
management strategy able to avoid the risks of a
constant flow is to use a maximun non erosive flow
during the advance phase minimizing, thus, the losses
by deep percolation and at the end of this phase can
reduce the flow to a value a little higher than the
capacity of basic infiltration of soil to minimize, also
the losses by runoff.
Bishop et al. [4] recommend Gardner equation
modified by Criddle in order to find the maximun
flow in litters per second, function only of the
steepness, while Walker et al. [5] studied the maximun
non erosive flow according to parameters obtained
from the dimensions of the furrow, steepness,
roughness and maximun non erosive velocity.
The different simulation models of surface
irrigation were developed in order to simulate an
isolated irrigation event, assuming that there is not
spatial variability in the field parameters (infiltration,
roughness, stepness and cross sectional area); in
practice, the validity of this hypothesis has been
verified considering that the simulations are very close
to the field measurements of the phases, however, the
time variability in these parameters are always taken
into account, as for the evaluation of any irrigation
event throughout the growing season, new
measurements of field parameters are held.
With this research, it aimed to develop a
mathematical computational model for simulation and
optimization of furrow irrigation with continuous flow.
And through the simulation of the advance phase, it
was able to predict the performance of an irrigation
event and select the great flow in the furrow irrigation
with continuous flow, i.e. one maximizes the water
application efficiency, balancing losses by deep
percolation and runoff.
2. Material and Methods
In the kinematic wave model used in this research,
it is assumed that there is not variation of the height of
flow with the distance, i.e.,  y  x  0 neglecting
completely the equation of motion, so nothing can be
said concerning to the dynamics of the shape of
surface profile of flow. Getting the equation of
continuity indefinite in time  A  t to solve this
problem, it assumes the existence of a unique
relationship which describes flow as function of the
flow area. Thus, it is substituted the equation of
 Prediction of the Maximum Flow by the Model SASIS: Sensibility to the Empirical
Parameters of the Shape of the Furrow
motion by the Manning Equation. The runoff studied
only cinematically, is similar to the propagation of a
kinematic wave which collides, that is the reason why
these models are called kinematic waves. The
designation of uniform runoff models, also used, is
due to, obviously, the fundaments of the equation of
uniform runoff.
Because this kind of model is not applicable to
furrows when the steepness is too small, i.e., when the
steepness tends to zero, actually its precision will
decrease when So approximates to zero [6].
Therefore, the equations of the kinematic wave
model used become:
Continuity equation
A Q Z
  0 (1)
t x 
Q   Am (2)
(Manning Equation)
where
1 SO
 (3)
n ti. Notes J, M, L and R are introduced in each cell in
2
m (4)
2 conditions related to time and space. Thus, the
Where:
A = cross-sectional of flow area, m2;
t = time of occurence, second;
x = distance of water advance in field, m;
 = time of infiltration opportunity, second;
Z = infiltrated volume accumulated per unit length
of furrow, m3·m-1;
Q = flow, m3·s-1;
n = Manning roughness coefficient, m-1/3·s;
So = steepness of field, m·m-1;
1 and 2 = empirical constants adjusted to the field
measurements of the geometry of the furrow;
 and m = empirical constants.
For spatial numerical solution of the equations of
the kinematic waves model, the Eulerian integration
procedure with first order approximation by Refs. [7,
8] was used, in this research, which results in two
algebraic equations more stable and easier to be
435
dissolved in microcomputers. Conceptually, the
approximation considers the surface and subsurface
profile of water throughout the wetted area during
sequential stages of calculation. Fig. 1 illustrates the
surface and subsurface profiles of flow in the times ti-1
and ti, identifying the cells which compose them.
During each stage of calculation the water flow
advances an incremental distance, x; e.g., during the
first interval (first stage of calculation), the water
advance extends to a distance x1; in the second
interval, to a distance x2, and so on. It can be
generalized to the distance of the advancing front, xi,
in the time ti, as follows:
i
xi    x k (5)
k 1
where  xk = kth increment of space, defined by the
advance during the interval, when i = k, where k is the
number of time increment.
A typical cell of the profile is illustrated in Fig. 2,
displaying profiles in the stages of calculation ti-1 and
order to identify the variables which describe flow
variables subscripted by J or M refer to the flow
conditions in time ti-1 and borders left (upstream) and
right (downstream) of the cell, respectively. Similarly,
L and R are subscripted borders left and right of the
cell in time ti. Combining the cells of all time
incremets there will be a grid calculation in the line (x,
t), in which the advance and recession trajectories may
Fig. 1 Schema of progression of surface flow and
infiltration for the constant interval [5].
436 Prediction of the Maximum Flow by the Model SASIS: Sensibility to the Empirical
Parameters of the Shape of the Furrow
Fig. 2 Deformed cell of flow [5].
be drawn. It is observed, in this line, that during the
advance phase the cells are rectangular, except the
ones of the advancing front, which are triangular due
not existing flow in the downstream borders of these
cells, at the times ti and ti-1. During the storage and
depletion phases, all cells are rectangular; and during
the recession, the cell end upstream is triangular for
the same reasons of flow behavior in the advancing
front, but the other cells are rectangular. The width of
each cell is determined by the distance of the
advancing front during each stage of calculation t,
which becomes, then, one of the unknowns of the
problem, once it was considered t constant. This is
called a spatial solution of the Saint-Venant equations
because x is an unknown, while the value of t is
defined by the user model.
The integrated form of the equation of continuity in
relation to distance and time results in:
1
2
 
Qx x, t  Qx, t t  t  Qx x,t  Qx, t t  t 
1
2
 
Ax, t  t  Ax,t x x  Ax,t  t  Ax,t x  x 
1
2
 
Zx,t  t  Zx,t x x  Zx,t  t  Zx,t x x  0
Since during the advance phase the flow decreases
throughout the distance for the effect of the rate of
water infiltration in soil, falling to zero in the
advancing front, the non-linearity of the profile, both
surface and subsurface, becomes quite marked,
making the factor ½ not appropriated to consider the
flow conditions; thus, an appropriate consideration
must be from ½ to 1. Then, the factors  and  are
created to consider the non-linearity of the profile,
respectively, related to time and space. These factors
are extremely important only during the advance
phase because after this phase there is tendency to
establish stable conditions of flow. The consideration
must be superior in time t + t as during the advance
phase the non-linearity increases with time, getting
maximum when the water reaches the end of the area
(zero flow conditions); besides, also there must be
superior in the input section because the height of
flow varies soon in this section, since it is in this
section where flow is being applied.
Replacing, in the Eq. (6), ½ by
and writing the flow variables in
terms of the notes of a computational cell, there is:
The Eq. (6) may, then, be represented in terms of
the notes, in Fig. 2, as follows:
 QR  QL   1   QM  QJ  t 
  AL  AJ   1    AR  AM  x  (7)
 Z L  Z J   1   Z R  Z M  x  0
where  and  are the coefficients of time and space
ponderation, respectively, whose values vary from ½
and 1; in general, it has taken values equal to 0.65 and
0.51 for  and , respectively. In his software
SIRMOD III, Walker [9] uses 0.60 for both, which
was the same value used in this research.
The numerical solution is obtained by solving the
Eq. (7) for each cell in the computational mesh
starting horizontally from left to right, in each stage of
(6)
calculation. The only unknowns in each cell are QR
and AR; however, once Q is explicitly being calculated
on Manning equation (Eq. (2)), it is not considered as
an unknown; the same case is applied to Z (infiltration)
which is being calculated on Kostiakov-Lewis
equation. What is done is to replace the equations of Q
and Z by the Eq. (7) and, then, it gets only one
unknown (AR).
Replacing the Eq. (2) by the Eq. (7) and dividing it
by    t , there will be the following equation
nonlinear in AR:
 Prediction of the Maximum Flow by the Model SASIS: Sensibility to the Empirical 437
Parameters of the Shape of the Furrow

where:
1   x 1  m m
ARm   AR  ALm  
 AM  AJ   Qmax = max non erosive flow, m3·min-1;
    t   
(8) Vmax = maximun non erosive velocity, m·min-1;
  x 1  x
 A  Z  A  Z   Z  A  Z   0 n = Manning coefficient, m-1/3·s;
 L L J J t    R M M t
1 and 2 = coefficients which express the geometry
Aiming to simplify the Eq. (8), the constants and of the furrow, dimensionless;
variables with values known from the previous stage So = furrow slope, m·m-1.
of calculation in the coefficients C1 and C2 are isolated. The infiltrated volume was determined by using the
Then, there is: trapezoidal rule by Eq. (14):
1  x
C 1    (9) Vz 
L
Z o  2 Z1  2 Z 2    2 Z n1   Z n  (14)
   t 2n
and where:
1  1  L = length of the area;
C2  ALm   AJm1   AMm1 
      (10) Zi = accumulated infiltration to point i, m3·m-1;
n = number of segments in which the furrow is

 AL ZL  AJ ZJ  x  1 ZR  AM ZM  x
 
 t    t subdivided.
getting the equation The accumulated infiltration in each segment of the
furrow is given by:
ARm 1  C1 AR  C 2  0
Z i  k t r  t a i   f o t r  t a i 
(11) a
The Eq. (11) is used for interior cells and for the (15)
first one after the first stage of calculation. In this case where:
a matrix does not exist because the Eq. (11) is solved k = Kostiakov-Lewis equation constants,
implicitly (by Newton-Raphson’s method) for each m ·min-a·m-1;
3

cell, separately. This equation is used implicitly to a = Kostiakov-Lewis equation empirical constants;
determine AR and, after, it is determined explicitly QR, fo = basic infiltration rate, m3·m-1·min-1;
by Manning equation (Eq. (2)). tr = time of recession, min;
The Kostiakov-Lewis equation was used to describe (ta)i = time of advance for the ith station, min.
the soil water infiltration: The recession phase is marked by disappearance of
Z  k  f o
a
(12) water from surface soil. According to some authors,
where: the recession occurs as soon as the water application
Z = accumulated infiltration, m3·m-1·min-1; ends. In this work, the depletion and recession phases
 = time of infiltration opportunity, min; were neglected, considering that the cutting time, tcom,
k = constant of Kostiakov-Lewis equation of replaces tr in Eq. (15).
infiltration, m3·min-a·m-1;
3. Results and Discussion
a = empirical coefficients of Kostiakov-Lewis
equation of infiltration; The results of the sensitivity analysis are presented
fo = basic infiltration rate in m3·m-1·min-1. in Table 1 and in Fig. 3, processed through the
The maximum non erosive flow was obtained software SUFER 7. There were great variations in the
through Eq. (13): maximum non erosive flow (Qmax) and variations in
1
the parameters of the geometry of the cross section of
 V  n2   2  2
Q m ax    max 2  (13) flow (1 and 2); for 2 equal to 2.60 when 1 varied
  3600 S 0  1 

from 0.17 to 0.80, Qmax decreases from 2.39 to 0.18
438 Prediction of the Maximum Flow by the Model SASIS: Sensibility to the Empirical
Parameters of the Shape of the Furrow

Table 1 Sensitivity analysis of the prognosis of maximum non erosive flow by model SASIS in function to the variation of
the empirical parameters of shape of the furrow (1 and 2), to the field data AMALGACQ (n = 0.04 m-1/3·s and So = 0.0066
m·m-1, max speed = 13 m·min-1).
2
1
2.60 2.64 2.68 2.72 2.76 2.80 2.84 2.88 2.92 2.96 3.00
0.170 2.39 3.17 4.06 5.07 6.18 7.38 8.67 10.03 11.47 12.96 14.50
0.233 1.41 1.94 2.56 3.27 4.08 4.98 5.95 7.01 8.14 9.33 10.58
0.296 0.95 1.33 1.80 2.35 2.98 3.69 4.48 5.34 6.27 7.27 8.33
0.359 0.69 0.99 1.35 1.79 2.31 2.90 3.56 4.29 5.09 5.95 6.87
0.422 0.53 0.77 1.07 1.43 1.87 2.37 2.94 3.57 4.27 5.03 5.84
0.485 0.42 0.62 0.87 1.18 1.55 1.99 2.49 3.05 3.67 4.35 5.08
0.548 0.34 0.51 0.73 1.00 1.32 1.71 2.15 2.65 3.21 3.83 4.50
0.611 0.28 0.43 0.62 0.86 1.15 1.49 1.89 2.34 2.85 3.42 4.04
0.674 0.24 0.37 0.54 0.75 1.01 1.32 1.68 2.10 2.57 3.09 3.66
0.737 0.21 0.32 0.47 0.66 0.90 1.18 1.51 1.89 2.33 2.81 3.35
0.800 0.18 0.28 0.42 0.59 0.80 1.06 1.37 1.73 2.13 2.58 3.08

Fig. 3 Sensitivity of the prognosis of max nonerosive flow in furrow irrigation with continuous flow to the empirical
parameters of the shape of the furrow (1 and 2), to the field data AMALGACQ.

L·s-1 (decrease of 2.21 L·s-1). While for a value of 2
equal to 3.00, in this same range of variation of 1,
Qmax decreased from 14.50 to 3.08 L·s-1 (decrease of
11.42 L·s-1). For 1 equal to 0.17 when 2 varied from
2.60 to 3.00, the maximum non erosive flow increased
from 2.39 to 14.50 L·s-1 (increase of 12.11 L·s-1);
however, for 1 equal to 0.80, in this range of variation
of 2, the maximum non erosive flow increased from
0.18 to 3.08 L·s-1 (increase of only 2.9 L·s-1). The
happening the opposite for the lowest value for Qmax
(0.18 L·s-1), i.e., it happened for the lowest value of 2
greatest value for Qmax (14.50 L·s-1) occurred for the
greatest value of 2 and for the lowest value of 1, and
the greatest value of 1. Then, it is observed that 2 has
much greater effect on the maximum non erosive flow
than 1, and for any value of 2, when 1 increases
Qmax decreases; as for any value of 1, Qmax increases
with the increase in 2. This fact is explained because
in the equation of the maximum non erosive flow
proposed by Walker et al. [5], 1 acts as a divisor of
the maximum non erosive velocity of water (Vmax),
while 2 is an exponential factor for both Vmax
internally and all the other variables of this equation.
Actually, 1 and 2 are, respectively, the linear and
 Prediction of the Maximum Flow by the Model SASIS: Sensibility to the Empirical
Parameters of the Shape of the Furrow
exponential coefficients of potential functions which
describe the relationship between the cross section of
flow area (or wetted perimeter) and the height of flow;
thus, the multiplicative effect of 1 in the cross section
of flow area is linear, while the one of 2 is
exponential, consequently affecting much more the
maximum non erosive flow. It verifies a combined
effect of 1 and 2 in the value of Qmax, i.e., the effect
of a parameter depends on the effect of the other. For
the ranges of 1 and 2 used in this sensitivity analysis,
which correspond to real conditions of field, they were
detected combinations among these parameters which
resulted in impracticable maximum non erosive flows
to be very low or very great.
In practice, Qmax must be greater than the minimum
flow, i.e., the one which guarantees that water
advances to the end of the irrigated area, and equal or
lower than the flows normaly available to the
irrigators by the water managers in the irrigated
perimeter. In many situations, the strategy of reduced
flow becomes impracticable because the availability
of a certain volume of water for a period is insufficient
to make possible the use of a large flow which
corresponds to a maximum non erosive value. The
results of this research point out to the importance of
having an estimate of the parameters of the geometry
of the cross section of flow (1 and 2) the most
precise as possible, knowing that the dimensions of
this section may result in impracticable values of Qmax,
outside of the range acceptable in the literature, which
is from 1.2 to 4.0 L·s-1. Table 1 shows, bold, the
combinations between 1 and 2 which resulted in
acceptable Qmax. This sensitivity analysis was also of
great benefit for the creation of an interface in the
software SASIS, able to guide this tool user to input
appropriate values for 1 and 2 to the process of
simulation of furrow irrigation with continuous flow
and the optimization of its performance.
Criddle et al. [10, 11] proposed the equation to
calculate the maximum non erosive flow, whose
values obtained with this equation are appropriated to
439
loam soils and the ones with slopes close to 0.5%. In
clayey soils it is possible to increase the flow and, in
sandy ones, there will have to decrease it. Through
this equation the flow is overestimated for slopes
lower than 0.5% and underestimated for slopes greater
than 0.5%. The equation of Walker and Skogerboe
[10], used in this research, takes advantage on the
equation of Criddle [10] because the degree of
empiricism in it is less, since, besides the slope, it also
considers the roughness and the capacity of water
storage in the furrow through the empirical parameters
of the geometry of the cross section of flow. To
implement the strategy of reduced flow, Daker [12]
presents a table of initial maximum flow which a
furrow can receive, without running the risk of erosion
because of its slope; for the minimum slope (0.5 per
thousand) the maximum flow is 4.0 L·s-1, while for the
maximum slope (5.0 per thousand) it is 1.3 L·s-1.
According to this author, the reduced flow will depend
on the range of basic infiltration of soil, parameter
which can be determined by various types of
processes.
4. Conclusions
The sensitivity analysis of the equation of
maximum flow used in the furrow irrigation with
continuous flow identified ranges of combination
between the roughness of surface soil and its slope
and among the empirical parameters of the cross
section of flow (1 and 2), which result in
impracticable maximum flows, also verifying the
combined effect between roughness and slope and
between 1 and 2, where roughness and 2 have the
greatest effects.
In the flow applied in furrow irrigation systems
with continuous flow the losses by runoff are much
more sensitive to variations of flow than the losses by
deep percolation. For the studied field conditions, the
highest rate of efficiency of water application was
obtained for flows close to the minimum flow.
SASIS presents effective mechanisms in the
440 Prediction of the Maximum Flow by the Model SASIS: Sensibility to the Empirical
Parameters of the Shape of the Furrow
deployment of numberless simulations, in a range of
flow between the minimum and maximum allowed,
aiming to determine the relationship between flow and
efficiency of water application, percolation and runoff
rates and, consequently, optimize the performance of
the system of furrow irrigation with continuous flow.
References
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