Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Wasde 0423
Wasde 0423
WHEAT: The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for slightly higher supplies, reduced domestic use, unchanged expo
increased ending stocks. Supplies are raised 5 million bushels on higher imports, based on the pace of Census imports reporte
Domestic use is lowered 25 million bushels on reduced feed and residual use, which is decreased to 55 million. The downwar
is based on the implied disappearance for the second and third quarters indicated in the NASS Grain Stocks report. Wheat exp
remain at 775 million bushels but there are offsetting by-class changes for White and Hard Red Spring exports. Projected 202
ending stocks are raised 30 million bushels to 598 million but are still 14 percent below last year. The 2022/23 season-averag
price is forecast $0.10 per bushel lower at $8.90, based on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for cash prices for t
remainder of 2022/23.
The global wheat outlook for 2022/23 is for increased supplies, higher consumption, and reduced trade and stocks. Supplies a
0.7 million tons to 1,061.1 million, primarily on higher beginning stocks for Syria and increased production for Ethiopia. Globa
consumption is increased 2.9 million tons to 796.1 million, mainly on higher food, seed, and industrial use for India, and increa
and residual use for China and the EU. World trade is lowered 1.2 million tons to 212.7 million on reduced exports by the EU,
and Brazil more than offsetting increases for Russia and Ukraine. China’s wheat imports are raised 2.0 million tons to 12.0 mil
would be the highest imports for China since 1995/96. China’s imports are raised on strong imports to date, particularly from
China is now the leading 2022/23 global wheat importer. Projected 2022/23 world ending stocks are lowered 2.1 million tons
million, the lowest since 2015/16. This month, India, the Philippines, and Ukraine are projected to have lower stocks, more th
offsetting increases for Syria, the EU, and the United States.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for reductions to imports and food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use,
unchanged ending stocks. Corn imports are lowered 10 million bushels based on observed trade to date. Feed and residual u
unchanged at 5.275 billion based on indicated disappearance during the December-February quarter. FSI is lowered 10 millio
reflecting cuts to corn used for glucose and dextrose and starch. With supply and use falling by the same amount, ending stoc
unchanged at 1.342 billion bushels. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $6.60 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2022/23 is forecast 3.3 million tons lower to 1,436.3 million. This month’s foreign coarse g
outlook is for declines in production, trade, and ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast dow
for Argentina, the EU, Serbia, and Uruguay are partially offset by an increase for Russia. For Argentina, production is lowered
continued heat during March diminishes yield prospects for late-planted corn, despite locally beneficial precipitation during th
EU corn production is reduced, mostly reflecting declines for Hungary, Italy, and Bulgaria that are partly offset by increases for
and Poland. Russia corn production is higher reflecting increases to both area and yield. Foreign barley production is higher o
increase for the EU.
Major global trade changes include lower forecast corn exports for Argentina, Mexico, Burma, and Serbia, with increases for U
Russia. Corn imports are lowered for Egypt, the United States, Thailand, and Venezuela but raised for the EU, Turkey, and Uru
Foreign corn ending stocks are lower mostly reflecting declines for Ukraine, the EU, Mexico, and Serbia that are partly offset b
for Russia and Brazil. Global corn ending stocks, at 295.3 million tons, are down 1.1 million from last month.
RICE: This month’s supply and demand outlook for 2022/23 U.S. rice is for smaller supplies, increased domestic and residual u
exports, and reduced ending stocks. Supplies are reduced as the import forecast is lowered 2.0 million cwt to 40.0 million on
than-expected pace of long-grain imports. All rice imports continue to be at a record level, however. Based on the NASS Mar
Stocks report, long-grain domestic use is raised 2.0 million cwt to 119.0 million and medium- and short-grain use is raised 2.0
to 32.0 million. The 2022/23 rice export forecast is raised 2.0 million cwt to 61.0 million (all long-grain) on large February Cen
and additional sales to Iraq in late March under a 2022/23 Memorandum of Understanding. Despite this increase, U.S. export
still be the lowest since 1985/86. In aggregate, these supply and use revisions result in an 8.0-million-cwt reduction in ending
28.1 million, the lowest since 2003/04. The long-grain season-average farm price (SAFP) is unchanged at $16.90 per cwt. Wh
medium- and short-grain SAFP price is also unchanged at $29.20 per cwt, the SAFP for Other States was raised $0.10 per cwt t
The 2022/23 global outlook is for lower supplies, increased trade, fractionally higher use, and reduced ending stocks. Global b
stocks are lowered 1.4 million tons to 182.0 million based almost entirely on a multi-year adjustment to use and stocks in the
to better match observed current stock levels. World production is decreased 0.4 million tons to 509.4 million as reduced esti
Indonesia, Brazil, and Iraq more than offset an increase for Bangladesh. Indonesia’s 2022/23 rice production is reduced 0.6 m
to 34.0 million on lower area and yield for its main-season rice crop that was harvested in February and March. Global trade i
is raised 0.8 million tons to 55.7 million, with increased exports for Vietnam and Thailand, in part to account for Indonesia’s in
significantly increase rice purchases in 2023. Total ending stocks are projected 2.0 million tons lower to 171.4 million, primari
decreases for the Philippines and China. At this level, ending stocks would be 6 percent lower than in 2021/22 and the lowest
2017/18.
OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use forecasts for 2022/23 are unchanged relative to last month. Soybean and soybean m
are also unchanged. The soybean oil price is projected at 64.0 cents per pound, down 2 cents.
Global 2022/23 soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower production, crush, and exports. Global soybean producti
reduced 5.5 million tons to 369.6 million. Lower crops for Argentina and Uruguay are partly offset by higher production for Br
Soybean production for Argentina is lowered 6.0 million tons to 27.0 million on hot and dry weather conditions through Marc
production is lowered 0.9 million tons to 1.2 million on a lower harvested area and yield. Partly offsetting is higher production
which is increased 1.0 million tons to 154.0 million on higher area.
Soybean crush is lowered on reduced supplies and slow pace to date for Argentina, China, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Egypt. C
Argentina is reduced 3.3 million tons to 32.0 million leading to lower product exports. Partly offsetting is higher crush and hig
soybean oil and meal exports for Brazil. Soybean exports are lowered 0.4 million tons to 168.0 million mainly on lower export
Uruguay. Imports are lowered for Bangladesh, Egypt, and Pakistan and raised for Argentina. Soybean ending stocks are raised
fractionally with higher stocks for China and Brazil that are mostly offset by lower stocks for Argentina.
SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply is increased by 176,692 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.637 million on increased imports from la
On March 13, 2023, USTR announced the reallocation of 247,182 STRV from countries that stated they do not plan to ship the
raw sugar TRQ allocation. USDA projects that only 46.5 percent of the reallocation, or 114,905 STRV, will enter, implying a ne
projection of 132,277, down from 254,632 projected last month. High-tier tariff imports are increased to 225,000 STRV on raw
imported during March by a refiner and by an increase in projected monthly refined imports based on the pace to date. There
partial offset of 10,179 STRV from combined calendar year 2022 FTA TRQs where the sugar failed to enter before December 3
sugar production is down by 10,285 STRV on slightly lower recovery and a corresponding small increase in beet pile shrink. Ca
production is up 5,430 STRV on processor reporting in Florida and Texas. Because sugar use is unchanged, ending stocks incre
full extent of the supply increase to 1.897 million STRV, resulting in an increase in the ending stocks-to-use ratio to 14.89 perc
Mexico sugar production is increased by 75,000 metric tons (MT) to 5.560 million. It is projected that area harvested will be c
828,941 hectares (ha) projected by CONDADESUCA but remains below in yield (USDA’s projection of 61.07 MT/ha against 62.3
below in sucrose recovery (10.98 percent against 11.20). The production increase flows through to an increase in IMMEX deli
331,037 MT and in ending stocks to 937,216 MT.
On March 29, the Department of Commerce indicated that the government of Mexico stated that Mexico will be able to supp
sugar needs of 1.118 million MT during the remainder of the Export Limit period. USDA projects Mexico production of below
polarity sugar could be as high as 840,000 MT or about 75 percent of allocation. USDA continues to project lower deliveries to
maintain Mexico sugar supply and use balance for 2022/23, assuming that Mexico will export up to its Export Limit. USDA pro
Mexico imports for IMMEX at 25,000, unchanged from last month.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: For 2023, the beef production forecast is raised from last month. Higher expected placem
cattle during the first half are reflected in higher forecast beef production during the second half. Pork production is raised in
half on recent slaughter data and revisions to 2022 pig crop data but is lowered in the second half, as the December-February
and producer farrowing intentions for March-May, published in the latest Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, were lower than pre
expected. Broiler production is raised for the first half on recent slaughter and hatchery data. Turkey production is unchange
production is reduced slightly for the second and third quarters on recent flock and production data.
Export projections for beef are raised on recent trade data and expectations of sustained demand in a number of Asian marke
Imports are also raised on recent data and projections of increased supplies from Oceania. Pork exports and imports are both
recent data. Broiler and turkey exports are raised on recent data, and imports are reduced on recent discoveries of highly pat
avian flu outbreaks in Chile.
Cattle prices for the first quarter are lowered slightly on reported data but raised for all other quarters on continued strength
Hog prices are lowered for all four quarters reflecting current price movements and continued modest demand. Broiler price
projected higher on the strength of demand. Turkey prices are raised on current price movements. Egg prices are raised for t
quarter on reported prices but the forecast for the remaining quarters is unchanged.
The milk production forecast is higher on a larger expected cow inventory. Fat basis imports for 2023 are primarily raised on t
strength of a number of dairy products during the first quarter. Imports of casein and milk protein concentrates are expected
firm, supporting higher skim-solids basis imports through the year. Expectations of increased competition in butter, cheese, n
milk, and whey markets are reflected in lower forecast exports on both a fat- and a skim-solids basis for 2023.
Cheese and butter prices are raised on recent prices. Nonfat dry milk prices are lowered. Whey prices are raised on recent pr
observations and stronger expected demand. With the changes in component prices, Class III prices are projected higher, wh
prices are projected lower. The all milk price is projected higher at $20.65 per cwt.
COTTON: The 2022/23 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts show higher exports and lower ending stocks relative to last
with production and domestic mill use unchanged. The export forecast is raised 200,000 bales, to 12.2 million, based on the p
recent sales and shipments. Ending stocks are now forecast at 4.1 million bales, equivalent to 29 percent of total disappearan
marketing year price received by upland cotton producers is projected to average 82 cents per pound, a decrease of 1 cent fro
month.
In the global 2022/23 cotton balance sheet, higher production and reduced trade are contributing to higher ending stocks. W
production is forecast 829,000 bales higher than in March as a 1-million-bale increase for China more than offsets a lower Bra
World 2022/23 ending stocks are projected 867,000 bales higher, with the largest increase in India, where projected stocks ar
higher on lower exports. The expected volume of world trade in 2022/23 is 745,000 bales lower this month, with imports red
Bangladesh, China, and Turkey. On the export side, higher U.S. and Australia exports are more than offset by a 550,000-bale r
for Brazil and a 400,000-bale reduction for India. Projected 2022/23 global consumption is 65,000 bales higher this month as
bale increase for China more than offsets declines in Bangladesh and Turkey.
April 2023
WASDE - 635 - 8
WASDE - 635 - 9
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity
tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus
United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains, and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye,
millet, and mixed grains.
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Includes mill use only.
4/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment
of export/import imbalances.
April 2023
WASDE - 635 - 10
Foreign 3/ Output
Total
Supply Trade
Total
Use 2/
Ending
Stocks
Oilseeds 2020/21 483.83 579.14 129.3 446.63 107.41
2021/22 (Est.) 477.86 584.1 119.3 446.5 109.19
filler filler filler filler filler
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year.
2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to World minus United States.
April 2023
WASDE -
635 - 11
U.S. Wheat
Supply and
Use 1/
2021 2022
/22 /23
2020/21 Est. Proj.
Apr
Area Planted 44.5 46.7 45.7
Area 36.8 37.1 35.5
Harvested
Yield per 49.7 44.3 46.5
Harvested
Beginning 1028 845 698
Acre
Stocks
Production 1828 1646 1650
Imports 100 95 125
Supply, Total 2956 2587 2473
Food 961 972 975
Seed 64 58 70
Feed and 93 59 55
H
Residual
Domestic, 1117 1088 1100
a
Total
Exports r 994 800 775
d
Use, Total 2111 1888 1875
Ending Stocks R 845 698 598
Avg. Farm e 5.05 7.63 8.9
Price ($/bu) 2/ d
W
i
n
U.S. Wheat t
Year
by Class:
beginning e
Supply and r Total
June
Use 1
Note: Totals
may not add
due to
rounding. 1/
April 2023
WASDE - 635 - 12
April
WASDE - 635 - 13
BARLEY
2020/21 2021/22 Est. 2022/23 Proj. 2022/23 Proj.
March April
Filler
OATS
2020/21 2021/22 Est. 2022/23 Proj. 2022/23 Proj.
March April
Filler
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for
sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by
farmers.
April 2023
WASDE - 635 - 14
LONG-GRAIN RICE
2020/21 2021/22 Est. 2022/23 Proj. 2022/23 Proj.
March April
MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN 2020/21 2021/22 Est. 2022/23 Proj. 2022/23 Proj.
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken
kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of ending stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2017/18-1.4; 2018/19-2.1; 2019/20-
1.0. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of
the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are
converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced
divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/
Exports by type of rice are estimated. 9/ The California medium/short-grain season-average- farm price (SAFP) largely reflects rice
that is marketed through price pools in California. The pool price is not final until all the rice in the pool is marketed for the crop year.
Therefore, SAFP forecasts based on the average of NASS monthly prices and the final price may differ. 10/ Marketing year beginning
October 1.
April 2023
WASDE - 635 - 15
SOYBEAN OIL
April
Filler
SOYBEAN MEAL
April
Filler
1 2 4
Thousand Short
Beginning Stocks 341 341 311
Production 4/ 50565 51814 52489
Imports 784 649 650
Supply, Total 51691 52804 53450
Domestic Disappearance 37674 38970 39400
Exports 13675 13524 13700
Use, Total 51350 52493 53100
Ending Stocks 341 311 350
Avg. Price ($/s.t.) 2/ 392.31 439.81 465
Total
WASDE - 635 - 16
Exports 49 29 35 35
Deliveries 12277 12578 12705 12705
Food 12161 12470 12600 12600
Other 5/ 116 107 105 105
Miscellaneous 40 81 0 0
Total Use 12367 12688 12740 12740
Ending Stocks 1705 1820 1720 1897
Stocks to Use Ratio 13.8 14.3 13.5 14.9
Total
1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Data and projections correspond to category components from "Sweetener Market
Data" (SMD). 2/ Production projections for 2021/22 and 2022/23 are based on Crop Production and/or processor
projections/industry data and/or sugar ICEC analysis where appropriate. 3/ For 2021/22, WTO raw sugar TRQ
shortfall (151) and for 2022/23 (132). 4/ Composed of sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 5/
Transfers accompanying deliveries for sugar-containing products to be exported (SCP) and polyhydric alcohol
manufacture (POLY), and deliveries for livestock feed and ethanol. Total refiner license transfers for SCP and POLY
inclusive of WASDE-reported deliveries: 2020/21 -- 298; estimated 2021/22 -- 303; projected 2022/23 -- 315
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
Beginning Ending
Stocks Production Imports Domestic 2/ Exports Stocks
1/ HFCS consumption by Mexico (1,000 metric tons, dry basis): 2020/21 = 1,320; Estimated 2020/21 = 1,291;
Projected 2022/23 = 1,291; Estimated Oct.- Feb. 2023 = 559; Estimated Oct. - Feb. 2022 = 516. Footnote source for
estimate: Comite Nacional para el Desarollo Sustentable de la Cana de Azucar. 2/Includes deliveries for consumption,
Mexico's products export program (IMMEX), and Other Deliveries/Ending Year Statistical Adjustments. IMMEX:
2021/22 (532 est =508 dom.+24 import); 2022/23 (331 proj = 306 dom.+25 import). Statistical Adjustments: 2021/22
(-16), 2022/23 (0).
April 2023
WASDE - 635 - 17
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing
year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference
between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks. 3/ Cents per pound
for upland cotton.
April 2023
WASDE - 635 - 18
World Wheat
Supply and Use 1/
(Million Metric
Tons)
Beginning Domestic Domestic Ending
2020/21 Stocks Production Imports Feed Total 2/ Exports Stocks
World 3/ 299.66 774.41 194.8 163.7 787.74 203.35 286.33
World Less China 149.65 640.16 184.18 118.7 632.74 202.59 147.21
United States 27.99 49.75 2.73 2.54 30.41 27.05 23
Total Foreign 271.68 724.66 192.07 161.16 757.33 176.3 263.33
Major Exporters 4/ 32.5 322.46 6.67 72.81 179.33 147.42 34.88
Argentina 2.46 17.64 0.01 0.05 6.25 11.53 2.32
Australia 2.7 31.92 0.2 4.5 8.03 23.77 3.02
Canada 5.5 35.44 0.55 4.16 9.1 26.43 5.95
European Union 5/
13.11 126.68 5.39 42.5 104.75 29.74 10.7
Russia 7.23 85.35 0.4 19 42.5 39.1 11.38
Ukraine 1.5 25.42 0.13 2.6 8.7 16.85 1.51
Major Importers 6/ 192.89 200.42 123.98 63.38 328.25 12.62 176.42
Bangladesh 1.76 1.18 7.2 0.5 8 0 2.14
Brazil 1.99 6.25 6.4 0.4 11.8 0.93 1.91
China 150.02 134.25 10.62 45 155 0.76 139.12
Japan 1.1 1 5.49 0.65 6.25 0.3 1.04
N. Africa 7/ 14.36 15.81 28.5 1.75 46.62 0.8 11.24
Nigeria 0.3 0.06 6.59 0.05 5.55 0.6 0.79
Sel. Mideast 8/ 11.44 20.64 17.32 3.54 38.58 0.62 10.2
Southeast Asia 9/ 5.51 0 25.18 8.09 25.1 1.14 4.45
Selected Other
India 24.7 107.86 0.02 6.5 102.22 2.56 27.8
Kazakhstan 0.66 14.26 1 1.45 6.25 8.19 1.48
United Kingdom 2.44 9.66 3.22 5.96 13.46 0.45 1.42
Beginning Domestic Domestic Ending
2021/22 Est. Stocks Production Imports Feed Total 2/ Exports Stocks
World 3/ 286.33 779.13 199.24 161.45 793.36 202.92 272.09
World Less China 147.21 642.18 189.68 126.45 645.36 202.05 135.34
United States 23 44.8 2.59 1.6 29.61 21.78 19.01
Total Foreign 263.33 734.32 196.65 159.86 763.76 181.14 253.09
Major Exporters 4/ 34.88 327.22 5.79 78.9 186.22 142.47 39.2
Argentina 2.32 22.15 0 0.25 6.55 16 1.93
Australia 3.02 36.24 0.21 5 8.53 27.51 3.43
Canada 5.95 22.42 0.55 5.15 10.15 15.12 3.66
European Union 5/ 10.7 138.24 4.63 45 108.25 32 13.32
WASDE - 635 - 19
WASDE - 635 - 20
1/ Aggregate of local
marketing years. Coarse
grains include corn, sorghum,
barley, oats, rye, millet, and
mixed grains (for U.S.
excludes millet and mixed
grains). 2/ Total foreign and
world use adjusted to reflect
the differences in world
imports and exports. 3/ World
imports and exports may not
balance due to differences in
marketing years, grain in
transit, and reporting
discrepancies in some
countries. 4/ Argentina,
Australia, Brazil, Canada,
Russia, South Africa, and
Ukraine. 5/ European Union,
Japan, Mexico, selected
North Africa and Middle
East, Saudi Arabia, Southeast
Asia, and South Korea. 6/
Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/
Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel,
Jordan, Libya, Morocco,
Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/
Indonesia, Malaysia,
Philippines, Thailand, and
Vietnam.
April 2023
WASDE - 635 - 21
WASDE - 635 - 22
1/ Aggregate of local
marketing years. 2/
Total foreign and world
use adjusted to reflect
the differences in world
imports and exports. 3/
World imports and
exports may not balance
due to differences in
marketing years, grain
in transit, and reporting
discrepancies in some
countries. 4/ Argentina,
Brazil, Russia, South
Africa and Ukraine. 5/
Egypt, European Union,
Japan, Mexico,
Southeast Asia, and
South Korea. 6/ Trade
excludes intra-trade. 7/
Indonesia, Malaysia,
Philippines, Thailand,
and Vietnam.
April 2023
WASDE - 635 - 23
WASDE - 635 - 24
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports
and exports. Total domestic includes both domestic use and unreported disappearance. 3/ World imports and exports may
not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Bangladesh,
China, Nigeria, European Union, Philippines, Cote d’Ivoire, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 6/ Trade excludes
intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries.
April 2023
WASDE - 635 - 25
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world
imports and exports. Total domestic includes both domestic use and unreported disappearance. 3/ World imports
and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ Burma, India, Pakistan, Thailand, and
Vietnam. 5/ Bangladesh, China, Nigeria, European Union, Philippines, Cote d’Ivoire, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, and
Saudi Arabia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/
Central American and Caribbean countries.
April 2023
WASDE - 635 - 26
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding
and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia,
Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use
and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries
and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin,
Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the
countries and regions listed, includes Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
April 2023
WASDE - 635 - 27
Total Foreign Mar 82.36 100.41 39.57 108.01 27.6 -0.11 86.85
Apr 82.48 101.24 38.83 108.07 26.66 -0.11 87.91
Major Exporters 4/ Mar 31.68 55.7 2.31 31.23 23.46 -0.17 35.16
Apr 31.78 55.36 2.28 31.16 22.54 -0.17 35.89
Central Asia 5/ Mar 2.37 5.2 0.05 3.92 1.42 0 2.28
Apr 2.37 5.2 0.05 3.92 1.42 0 2.28
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ Mar 1.61 4.79 3/ 0.1 4.7 0 1.6
Apr 1.61 4.79 3/ 0.1 4.6 0 1.7
S. Hemis. 7/ Mar 18.84 20.67 0.16 4.15 14.75 -0.18 20.95
Apr 18.94 20.32 0.16 4.15 14.33 -0.18 21.12
Australia Mar 4.86 5.5 3/ 0.01 6.1 -0.19 4.44
Apr 4.96 5.5 3/ 0.01 6.3 -0.19 4.34
filler filler filler filler filler filler filler
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to
rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for
Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on
supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in
addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote
d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, South Africa, Tanzania,
Zambia, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Japan, Russia, South
Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
April 2023
WASDE - 635 -
28
World Soybean
Supply and Use
1/
(Million Metric
Tons)
Beginning Production Imports Domestic Domestic Exports Ending
2020/21 Stocks Crush Total Stocks
World 2/ 95.1 368.6 165.49 315.82 363.97 164.86 100.35
World Less China 70.49 349 65.75 222.82 251.23 164.79 69.21
United States 14.28 114.75 0.54 58.26 60.91 61.67 6.99
Total Foreign 80.82 253.85 164.95 257.57 303.06 103.2 93.36
Major Exporters 3/ 47.84 197.34 5.92 90.08 100.76 94.95 55.39
Argentina 26.65 46.2 4.82 40.16 47.41 5.2 25.06
Brazil 20.42 139.5 1.02 46.5 49.71 81.65 29.58
Paraguay 0.57 9.64 0.02 3.33 3.43 6.33 0.48
Major Importers 4/ 27.94 23.25 133.35 122.04 149.75 0.27 34.53
China 24.61 19.6 99.74 93 112.74 0.07 31.15
European Union 1.72 2.6 14.79 15.8 17.36 0.19 1.56
Southeast Asia 1 0.59 9.64 4.74 10.02 0.01 1.19
Mexico 0.37 0.25 6.1 6.2 6.25 0 0.46
2022/23 Proj.
Beginning Production Imports Domestic Domestic Exports Ending
Stocks Crush Total Stocks
WASDE - 635 -
29
World Soybean
Meal Supply and
Use 1/
(Million Metric
Tons)
Beginning Production Imports Domestic Exports Ending
2020/21 Stocks Total Stocks
World 2/ 16.17 248.17 65.16 244.32 69.45 15.73
World Less China 16.17 174.52 65.08 171.65 68.4 15.73
United States 0.31 45.87 0.71 34.18 12.41 0.31
Total Foreign 15.86 202.3 64.45 210.15 57.05 15.42
Major Exporters 3/ 6.54 75.37 0.26 28.33 47.3 6.54
Argentina 2.57 31.32 0 3.28 28.33 2.29
Brazil 3.77 36.05 0.02 19.2 16.58 4.06
India 0.2 8 0.24 5.85 2.4 0.19
Major Importers 4/ 3.28 22.86 37.54 59.54 1.23 2.91
European Union 0.79 12.48 16.5 28.39 0.85 0.54
Mexico 0.18 4.9 1.85 6.73 0.01 0.2
Southeast Asia 5/ 2.26 3.69 17.35 20.81 0.37 2.12
China 0 73.66 0.07 72.68 1.05 0
2022/23 Proj.
Beginning Production Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Stocks Total Stocks
WASDE - 635 - 30
2022/23 Proj.
Beginni ng Production Imports Domestic Exports Ending
St ocks Total Stocks
1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-
September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and
to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/
Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and European Union. 4/ China, India, Bangladesh, and North Africa. 5/ Algeria,
Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia. Totals may not add due to rounding.
April 2023
WASDE - 635 - 31
Year and Beef Pork Red Meat Broiler Turkey Total Red Meat Egg Milk
Quarter 2/ Poultry 3/ & Poultry
Million Pounds Mil doz Bil lbs
2021 Annual 27948 27675 55815 44899 5558 50995 106810 9298 226.3
2022 I 7022 6904 13972 11170 1374 12678 26650 2319 56.3
II 7069 6639 13755 11279 1275 12697 26452 2218 57.8
III 7147 6533 13725 11896 1264 13312 27037 2259 56.4
IV 7053 6919 14018 11861 1310 13310 27328 2277 55.9
Annual
Mar Est. 28290 26994 55469 46206 5222 51997 107467 9074 226.5
Apr Est. 28290 26994 55469 46206 5222 51997 107467 9074 226.5
2023 I 6820 7065 13929 11500 1360 13000 26929 2220 56.9
II* 6675 6640 13361 11600 1380 13120 26481 2280 58.4
III* 6795 6590 13431 12000 1420 13565 26996 2355 56.9
IV* 6485 7065 13597 11800 1425 13355 26952 2430 56.5
Annual
Mar Proj. 26665 27410 54259 46750 5585 52885 107144 9330 228.5
Apr Proj. 26775 27360 54317 46900 5585 53040 107357 9285 228.7
* Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/
Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken.
*Projection. 1/ Simple average of months. 2/ 5-Area, Direct, Total all grades 3/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean. 4/ Wholesale,
National Composite Weighted Average. 5/ 8-16 lbs, hens National. 6/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 7/ Prices received by
farmers for all milk.
April 2023
WASDE - 635 - 32
Productio
Item Beginning n Total Ending Total Per Capita
stocks 1/ Imports Supply Exports Stocks Use 2/ 3/
Million Pounds /
4
Beef 2021 716 28016 3346 32078 3441 676 27962 58.9
2022 Est. Mar 676 28358 3391 32425 3536 723 28165 59.1
Apr 676 28358 3391 32425 3536 723 28165 59.1
2023 Proj. Mar 723 26733 3425 30881 3090 640 27151 56.7
Apr 723 26843 3500 31066 3135 640 27291 57
Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler
Pork 2021 467 27690 1180 29337 7026 446 21865 51.1
2022 Est. Mar 446 27009 1344 28799 6338 504 21957 51.1
Apr 446 27009 1344 28799 6338 504 21957 51.1
2023 Proj. Mar 504 27425 1005 28934 6350 535 22049 51
Apr 504 27375 1065 28944 6380 530 22034 51
Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler
Total Red 2021 1217 55906 4890 62014 10470 1147 50397 111.5
Meat 5/
2022 Est. Mar 1147 55561 5093 61801 9880 1256 50666 111.6
Apr 1147 55561 5093 61801 9880 1256 50666 111.6
2023 Proj. Mar 1256 54350 4797 60403 9446 1201 49757 109.2
Apr 1256 54409 4910 60575 9521 1199 49855 109.3
Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler
Broiler 2021 830 44419 155 45403 7355 705 37343 96.5
2022 Est. Mar 705 45711 176 46593 7278 892 38423 98.9
Apr 705 45711 176 46593 7278 892 38423 98.9
2023 Proj. Mar 892 46250 160 47302 7315 860 39127 100.2
Apr 892 46398 60 47351 7360 880 39111 100.2
Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler
Total 2021 1057 50514 180 51751 7947 874 42930 113.3
Poultry 6/
2022 Est. Mar 874 51502 268 52645 7715 1087 43843 115.2
Apr 874 51502 268 52645 7715 1087 43843 115.2
2023 Proj. Mar 1087 52384 286 53758 7691 1065 45002 117.8
Apr 1087 52538 105 53729 7746 1085 44898 117.4
Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler Filler
Red Meat & Poultry 2021 2274 106420 5070 113765 18418 2021 93327 224.8
Red Meat & Poultry
2022 Est. Mar 2021 107064 5362 114446 17595 2343 94509 226.8
Apr 2021 107064 5362 114446 17595 2343 94509 226.8
2023 Proj. Mar 2343 106735 5083 114161 17137 2266 94758 226.9
Apr 2343 106946 5015 114304 17267 2284 94753 226.8
1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less
condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis for red meat and broilers; certified ready-to-cook weight for turkey. 3/
Population source: Dept. of Commerce. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/
Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken.
April 2023
WASDE - 635 - 33
2020 2021 2022 Est. 2022 Est. 2023 Proj. 2023 Proj.
Commodity
Mar Apr Mar Apr
Eggs Million Dozen
Supply
Beginning Stocks 31.6 24.5 19.1 19.1 18.8 18.8
Production 9295.5 9297.9 9073.8 9073.8 9330 9285
Imports 15.5 18.2 25.9 25.9 26 22.5
Total Supply 9342.6 9340.6 9118.8 9118.8 9374.8 9326.3
Use
Exports 344 392.2 226.5 226.5 240 196
Hatching Use 1078.4 1103.9 1117.9 1117.9 1125 1126
Ending Stocks 24.5 19.1 18.8 18.8 21 21
Disappearance
Total 7895.6 7825.4 7755.7 7755.7 7988.8 7983.3
Per Capita (number) 285.6 282.5 279 279 285.9 285.7
Total
2020 2021 2022 Est. 2022 Est. 2023 Proj. 2023 Proj.
Commodity
Mar Apr Mar Apr
Milk Billion Pounds
Production 223.3 226.3 226.5 226.5 228.5 228.7
Farm Use 1.1 1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
WASDE - 635 - 34
2020 2021 2022 Est. 2022 Est. 2023 Proj. 2023 Proj.
Commodity
Mar Apr Mar Apr
Product Prices 1/ Dollars Per Pound
Cheese 1.924 1.676 2.1122 2.1122 1.81 1.855
Butter 1.581 1.733 2.8665 2.8665 2.335 2.42
Nonfat Dry Milk 1.042 1.269 1.6851 1.6851 1.23 1.165
Dry Whey 0.362 0.574 0.6035 0.6035 0.39 0.425
Dollars Per Cwt
Filler
Milk Prices 2/
Class III 18.16 17.08 21.94 21.94 17.55 18.25
Class IV 13.49 16.09 24.47 24.47 18.3 18.1
All Milk 3/ 18.13 18.53 25.56 25.56 20.45 20.65
WASDE - 635 - 35
Note: Tables on pages 35-37 present a record of the April projection and the final Estimate. Using
world wheat production as an example, the "root mean square error" means that chances are 2 out of
3 that the current forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 0.5 percent.
Chances are 9 out of 10 (90% confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 0.8 percent. The
average difference between the April projection and the final estimate is 2 million tons, ranging from
0.1 million to 6.8 million tons. The April projection has been below the estimate 27 times and above
14 times.
WASDE - 635 - 36
WASDE - 635 - 37