Green Recovery Programs Can Create Jobs—Now and in the Future

Building Industrial Natural

efficiency decarbonization capital Transport Clean power

Retrofits Replacing Energy Waste Green Tree Charging Walking Railways Electric Electric Grid New Battery
appliances efficiency recycling hydrogen planting infra- and cycling vehicle vehicle cell infra- renewable storage
and CCUS structure infra- manufac- manufac- structure energy
structure turing turing capacity
15–45

Direct jobs
20+1 8–22 7–21
created per $1 7–16 ~2–15
14 10 6–8 6–12 5–11
million invested 3–6 4–8 5–7
from 2020 to 2023

Job sustainability Short-term only Small long-term jobs boost Large long-term jobs boost

Sources: International Energy Agency with International Monetary Fund, “World Energy Outlook Special Report: Sustainable Recovery” (2020); International Energy Agency, “Global EV Outlook” (2019); International Renewable Energy Agency,
“Renewable Energy Benefits: Measuring the Economics” (2016); UK Energy Research Centre, “Low Carbon Jobs: The evidence for net job creation from policy support for energy efficiency and renewable energy” (2014); Food and Agriculture Organization,
“Creating forestry jobs to boost the economy and build a green future” (2009); BCG analysis.
Note: Job numbers vary depending on market and on stage of technology deployment; multiple sources were used for estimates. CCUS = carbon capture, utilization, and storage.
1Estimates for jobs created from tree planting vary significantly, from 20 to as high as 1,000 per $1 million invested, owing to differences in the methodologies used in the source papers, with higher employment generated where spending on capital is lower.
Seven Country Archetypes

Energy-intensive Low-wage, Low- Mature Renewable-

Fossil fuel Fossil fuel
industrial high-skill infrastructure, industrial resource-rich
importer exporter
producer economy non-OECD nation nation economy

Germany China Vietnam Kenya UK Denmark Saudi Arabia

South Korea India Slovakia Rwanda US Morocco UAE
Japan Papua New Guinea Netherlands Nigeria

Net importers have CO2-intensive Economies of this Such nations can Industrial nations Nations with Net exporters are
an incentive to industrial type can exploit ensure an effective with cost natural advantages highly dependent
build out domestic manufacturers their potential to clean energy disadvantages can for generating economically on
renewables and have the greatest secure large shares supply by scaling introduce energy low-cost wind or fossil fuel exports
electrify end use incentive to of new markets in up renewable efficiency measures solar power will see and need to
implement electric vehicle, energy, grid, and and work with benefits from a diversify in
efficiency measures renewable energy, storage government to use growth in response to falling
and heat pump infrastructure old oil and gas low-carbon sectors prices and demand
parts infrastructure to
develop CCUS

Source: BCG analysis.

Note: CCUS = carbon capture, utilization, and storage.
Countries’ Capacity to Invest in Green Recovery Varies

Major countries’ COVID-19 stimulus programs to date1

Stimulus as a percentage of GDP (%)2
50
Italy More resilient: Large stimulus
packages possible
Japan
40

Germany
30

UK France
Less resilient: Constrained capacity for large stimulus
20
Canada
South Africa South Korea
Brazil US
10 China
Turkey
Mexico Australia India
Russia Indonesia
0
–9.0 –8.0 –7.0 –6.0 –5.0 –4.0 –3.0 –2.0 –1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

Less resilient: More resilient:

Interest rates > GDP growth Difference between GDP growth and interest rates (%)3 GDP growth > interest rates

Africa Americas Asia-Pacific Europe Size of bubble = government debt as % of GDP (2018)

Sources: BCG COVID-19 Economic Response Dashboard; IMF; Reuters; Australian Treasury; Italy MEF; BMWI; IMF; Australia Treasury; Germany Federal Ministry of Finance; UK Office of Budget Responsibility; Government of Canada COVID-19
Economic Response Plan; press research; BCG analysis.
1
“Major countries” are the G20 countries, excluding Saudi Arabia and Argentina. Data is as of September 3, 2020.
2
Includes guarantees, revenues and expenditures, and loans and equity injections.
3
Based on the latest IMF estimates, after accounting for the impact of COVID-19.
Economic Dependence on Fossil Fuels Influences the Incentive
to Drive Green Recovery
Largest fossil-intensive share of GDP (%)
Iraq 40
Kuwait 40
Qatar 39
Oman 36
Saudi Arabia 32
Bahrain 29
UAE 29
Angola 23
Kazakhstan 22
Iran 18
Algeria 18
Ireland 18
Bulgaria 16
Thailand 15
Egypt 15
Ecuador 15
Venezuela 14
Russia 14
China 14
Czech Republic 13
0% 40%
Auto Heavy industry
Combined fossil-intensive share of GDP Fossil fuels Aviation

Sources: Oxford Economics; World Bank; BCG analysis.

Note: Countries or territories shown in white lack full data coverage across relevant sectors.