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  • M1 14-AZ2 PENROSE Part 1 (Analysis) - Blank

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    Khushi singhal
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    The document provides financial information for several companies, including stock prices, market capitalization, debt levels, EBITDA, net income, and valuation multiples. It also includes assumptions for a discounted cash flow model, valuing a company at $48 per share based on estimated future cash flows, a 7.1% WACC, and 2% perpetual growth rate.

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    M1 14-AZ2 PENROSE Part 1 (Analysis)_blank.xlsx

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    The document provides financial information for several companies, including stock prices, market capitalization, debt levels, EBITDA, net income, and valuation multiples. It also includes assumptions for a discounted cash flow model, valuing a company at $48 per share based on estimated future cash flows, a 7.1% WACC, and 2% perpetual growth rate.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    8 views5 pages

    M1 14-AZ2 PENROSE Part 1 (Analysis) - Blank

    Uploaded by

    Khushi singhal
    The document provides financial information for several companies, including stock prices, market capitalization, debt levels, EBITDA, net income, and valuation multiples. It also includes assumptions for a discounted cash flow model, valuing a company at $48 per share based on estimated future cash flows, a 7.1% WACC, and 2% perpetual growth rate.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    of 5

    Shares

    Outstanding Market Net Debt


    Stock Price (millions) Cap Debt Cash /Mkt Cap
    Arkos 33.60 5.1 171 28.9 1.4 16%
    B&S 16.44 3.2 53 26.0 15.4 20%
    Johnson 25.88 2.4 62 12.4 2.6 16%
    Kennedy Tools 24.78 8.5 211 56.0 13.6 20%
    Todd 4.90 29.2 143 16.7 2.8 10%
    Duncan 57.00 1.21 69 10.6 9.5 2%
    EBITDA EBITDA EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA Net Income Net Income P/E
    EV FY 2014A FY 2015E 2014A 2015E FY 2014A FY 2015E 2014A
    198.9 15.2 14.6 13.1x 13.6x 2.3 2.4 74.5x
    63.2 9.8 8.1 6.4x 7.8x 0.9 1.0 58.5x
    71.9 10.7 10.0 6.7x 7.2x 1.2 1.2 51.8x
    253.0 22.5 21.3 11.2x 11.9x 3.4 3.6 62.0x
    157.0 10.4 9.0 15.1x 17.4x 2.7 2.8 53.0x
    70.1 5.1 5.2 53.6x 60.3x 1.5 1.6 74.3x
    43.4258808 48.887802
    P/E
    2015E
    71.4x
    52.6x
    51.8x
    58.5x
    51.1x
    75.5x
    ASSUMPTIONS Year 0 1 2 3
    Sales growth rate 2% Sales 55.3 56.4 57.5 58.7
    COGS/Sales 65% COGS 37.9 36.7 37.4 38.1
    SGA/Sales 22% SGA 12.3 12.4 12.7 12.9
    Depreciation/Sales 3.1% Depreciation 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8
    CAPX/Sales 4.2% EBIT 3.4 5.6 5.7 5.8
    Tax rate 28% EBIT(1-t) 2.4 4.0 4.1 4.2
    NWC/Sales 40% Depreciation 1.7 1.8 1.8
    CAPX 2.4 2.4 2.5
    WACC 7.1% Inventory 18.0
    Perpetual growth (g) 2% +A/R 6.6
    -A/P 1.2
    =NWC 23.4 22.6 23.0 23.5
    DNWC (0.8) 0.5 0.5
    FCF 4.2 3.0 3.1
    Terminal value
    Discount factor 1.00 1.07 1.15 1.23
    PV of FCFs 4.0 2.6 2.5
    PV(FCF) 11.5
    Sensitivity analysis: WACC/perpetual growth PV(TV) 47.7
    48.0 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Enterprise value 59.2
    5.5% Cash 9.5
    6.5% Debt 10.6
    7.1% Equity value 58.1
    8.0% # shares (million) 1.21
    8.5% Value per share 48.0
    4 Explanation
    59.9
    ### from FY14 I/S + growth assumption
    38.9 from FY14 I/S + % sales assumption
    13.2 from FY14 I/S + % sales assumption
    1.9
    ### from % sales assumption
    5.9 = Sales − COGS − SGA − Depreciation
    4.3 from tax rate assumption
    1.9 as above
    2.5 from % sales assumption
    from FY14 B/S
    from FY14 B/S
    from FY14 B/S
    23.9
    ### from % sales assumption
    0.5 year-to-year increase in NWC
    3.1 =(1-t)EBIT+Dep − CAPX − DNWC
    62.8 =(1+g)FCF2018/(WACC-g)
    1.32
    ### =1/(1+WACC)t + WACC assumption
    2.4 =Discount Factor × FCF
    = sum of PV of each FCF
    = PV of terminal value
    =PV(FCF)+PV(TV)
    from FY14 B/S
    from FY14 B/S
    = Enterprise Value + Cash − Debt
    from case
    = equity value/number of shares

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