Who Wins The World Cup?

Who wins the World Cup?
Simulation method for predicting the World Cup South Africa 2010.
Authors Eng. Eduardo F. Pose Eng. Roberto P. Castillo Eng. Guillermo Altenhordt
Who wins the World Cup? ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6-9 2010 Buenos Aires Argentina
Any team can win the tournament. As in every game, there is a probability of occurrence of any of the possible outcomes. The final positions will then depend on these probabilities and the fixture. We performed a simulation model that uses public information from FIFA and other sources to predict the final standings. Will they be similar to actual results?. We will present them just before leaving to Johannesburg.
Goals are assumed to follow a Poisson distribution.
Using the FIFA ranking of the May 26, 2010 and the matchs of the last four years until May 31, 2010 is estimated Lambda factor.
ALIO-INFORMS Joint International Meeting June 6-9 2010 Buenos Aires Argentina
FIFA Ranking May 26, 2010
Matchs last four years until May 31,2010

Average Goals
Germany England Spain Brazil Cte d'Ivoire Slovakia Argentina Honduras
Rivals Average Goals

2.250 2.200 2.167 2.051 1.864 1.864 1.808 1.800 Nigeria Netherlands Spain Brazil England France Australia Portugal 0.620 0.623 0.633 0.644 0.720 0.724 0.780 0.796
After 100 000 iterations which is the estimated probability of:

Results Stage 1 Round of 16 Quarter-finals Semi-finals Match for third place Final
Results Stage 1
A B C D
E
France Argentina England Germany

Netherlands
77.8% 82.5% 86.0% 76.4%

86.4%
Uruguay Greece USA Serbia

Denmark
60.5% 53.0% 57.2% 52.7%

47.7%
F
G
Italy
Brazil
91.1%
94.0%
Paraguay
Portugal
58.0%
68.8%
Spain
91.3%
Switzerland
46.4%
Round of 16
Match Date - Time Venue
49 26/jun/2010 11:00 Baha Nelson Mandela/Puerto

50 26/jun/2010 15:30 Rustenburgo
France
England
64.6% Greece
69.1% Serbia
35.4%
30.9%
51 27/jun/2010 11:00 Mangaung / Bloemfontein

52 27/jun/2010 15:30 Johannesburgo
Germany
Argentina
64.0% USA
64.8% Uruguay
36.0%
35.2%
53 28/jun/2010 11:00 Durban

54 28/jun/2010 15:30 Johannesburgo
Netherlands
Brazil
76.7% Paraguay
81.8% Switzerland
23.3%
18.2%
55 29/jun/2010 11:00 Tshwane/Pretoria
Italy
69.0% Denmark
31.0%
56 29/jun/2010 15:30 Ciudad del Cabo

Spain
69.5% Portugal
30.5%
In the knockout stages, if a match is level at the end of normal playing time, extra time of two periods of 15 minutes each will be played. If the score is level after extra time, penalty kicks will be taken to the determine the winner. The Lambda factor for extra time is assumed to 30/90 the Lambda factor for normal time. We assume that both teams are equally skilled at taking penalty shots.
Quarter-finals & Semi-finals

Quarter-finals
Match Date - Time
Venue
57 02/jul/2010 11:00 Baha Nelson Mandela/Puerto
Netherlands
37.4% Brazil
62.6%
58 02/jul/2010 15:30 Johannesburgo

59 03/jul/2010 11:00 Ciudad del Cabo
France
Argentina
Italy
43.2% England
52.6% Germany
35.5% Spain
56.8%
47.4%
64.5%
Semi-finals
England
34.5% Brazil
65.5%
62 07/jul/2010 15:30 Durban
Argentina
35.5% Spain
64.5%
Quarter-finals & Semi-finals

Quarter-finals
Match Date - Time
Venue
57 02/jul/2010 11:00 Baha Nelson Mandela/Puerto
Netherlands
37.4% Brazil
62.6%

France
Argentina
Italy
43.2% England
52.6% Germany
35.5% Spain
56.8%
47.4%
64.5%
Semi-finals
England
34.5% Brazil
65.5%
62 07/jul/2010 15:30 Durban
Argentina
35.5% Spain
64.5%
Match for third place

England 53.2% Argentina 46.8% 63 10/jul/2010 15:30 Baha Nelson Mandela/Puerto
Final
Brazil 54.6% Spain
45.4%
J.P. Morgan issued on May 18, 2010 a paper entitled England to Win the World Cup!. A Quantitave Guide to the 2010 World Cup. The paper was done by Europe Equity Research based in London. The report says that England won the Semifinal against the Netherlands on penalties and also the Final against Spain on penalties.
The simulation is enhanced if instead of showing the second stage estimates the probability of being a winner, Runners-Up, Third, Four ,Final Match ,Semi-Final Match , etc. It is very unlikely that all the results match Round of 16. The probability of winning the eight teams is most likely only 5.572%. Adding the eight teams that came second the odds drop to 1/7,383. If one includes the four teams that win the Quarter-finals low probability to 1/61,220. If you include all the knockout phase of the probability is 1/498,288.
Winner
1 Brazil 2 Spain 3 Argentina 4 5 6 7 8
17.7% 11.4% 9.5% 8.6% 8.0% 5.5% 5.2% 4.6%
Italy England Netherlands Germany France
Runners-Up
1 Brazil 2 Spain 3 Italy 4 Argentina 5 England 6 Netherlands 7 Germany 8 France
10.4% 8.6% 7.9% 7.5% 7.4% 5.9% 5.4% 5.2%

Third
1 Brazil 2 England 3 Argentina 4 Spain 5 Italy 6 Germany 7 France 8 Netherlands
9.5% 8.4% 8.3% 7.7% 7.4% 6.0% 5.7% 5.2%

Fourth
1 England 2 France 3 Italy 4 Argentina 5 Germany 6 Spain 7 Netherlands 8 Brazil
6.81% 6.20% 5.91% 5.63% 5.36% 5.19% 5.01% 4.93%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Winner Brazil Spain Argentina Italy England Netherlands Germany France 17.7% 11.4% 9.5% 8.6% 8.0% 5.5%
Runners-Up Brazil Spain Italy Argentina England Netherlands 10.4% 8.6% 7.9% 7.5% 7.4% 5.9% 5.4% 5.2%
5.2% Germany 4.6% France
Third
1 Brazil 2 England 3 Argentina 4 Spain 5 Italy 6 Germany 7 France 8 Netherlands
Fourth
9.5% England 8.4% France 8.3% Italy 7.7% Argentina 7.4% Germany 6.0% Spain 5.7% Netherlands 5.2% Brazil
6.81% 6.20% 5.91% 5.63% 5.36% 5.19% 5.01% 4.93%
UBS investors guide 2010 World Cup in South Africa Wealth Management Research April 2010 UBS calculated the most likely teams to win the second round, semifinals and final. There are results that seem unlikely:
The high probability of qualifying for South Africa. The second most likely to be Germany The third more likely than Italy.
UBS AG is an abbrevation,wich originated from a predecessor firm,for the Union Bank of Switzerland,UBS ceased be considered a representational abbrevation after its 1998 merger with Swiss Bank Corporation. Main Headquarters in Basel and Zurich,Switzerland Switzerland has 26 cantons where they speak German, French, Italian and Romansh.
Round of 16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Brazil Spain Italy Netherlands England Argentina France Germany Portugal Uruguay Paraguay USA Mexico Greece Serbia Slovakia Denmark Switzerland Nigeria Chile 94.0% 91.3% 91.1% 86.4% 86.0% 82.5% 77.8% 76.4% 68.8% 60.5% 58.0% 57.2% 56.1% 53.0% 52.7% 47.7% 47.7% 46.4% 42.9% 42.1% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Semis Brazil Spain Argentina England Italy Germany France Netherlands USA Uruguay Portugal Mexico Winner 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Brazil Spain Argentina Italy England Netherlands Germany France 17.7% 11.4% 9.5% 8.6% 8.0% 5.5% 5.2% 4.6% 42.7% 32.9% 30.9% 30.6% 29.8% 21.9% 21.7% 21.6% 17.7% 16.8% 16.0% 13.9%
The World Cup and Economics 2010. Goldman Sachs Economics,Commodities and Strategy Research May 2010
Brazil Spain Argentina Italy England Netherlands Germany France USA Uruguay Portugal Mexico Greece Slovakia Serbia Switzerland Chile Paraguay Denm ark Cte d'Ivoire Slovenia Ghana Australia Cameroon Algeria Japan Nigeria Honduras Korea Republic New Zealand Korea DPR South Africa 17.7% 11.4% 9.5% 8.6% 8.0% 5.5% 5.2% 4.6% 4.23% 3.48% 3.36% 2.63% 2.29% 2.14% 1.82% 1.71% 1.55% 1.44% 0.97% 0.95% 0.91% 0.52% 0.47% 0.26% 0.26% 0.19% 0.15% 0.14% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
FINAL MATCH
1 Brazil - Spain 2 Italy - Brazil 3 Argentina - Brazil 4 5 6 7 8
4.3% 3.3% 3.1% 2.1% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7%
Brazil - Portugal England - Spain Germany - Brazil Argentina - England England - Brazil
MATCH FOR THIRD PLACE

1 Brazil - Spain 2 Argentina - England 3 Italy - Brazil 4 5 6 7 8
1.45% 1.36% 1.36% 1.30% 1.29% 1.25% 1.16% 1.14%
England - Spain England - USA England - Italy Argentina - Brazil England - Germany
SEMI-FINALS
1 England - Brazil 2 Argentina - Spain 3 Argentina - Italy 4 France - Brazil 5 Argentina - Brazil 6 Germany - Spain 7 England - Netherlands 8 Germany - Brazil
8.52% 6.47% 5.74% 5.45% 4.92% 4.39% 4.16% 3.74%
QUARTER-FINALS
1 Italy - Spain 2 Netherlands - Brazil 3 France - England 4 5 6 7 8
21.00% 19.69% 12.92% 12.68% 11.85% 11.03% 10.99% 10.02%
Italy - Brazil Argentina - Germany Argentina - England Italy - Portugal Paraguay - Brazil
ROUND OF 16
1 Portugal - Spain 2 Netherlands - Italy 3 Netherlands - Paraguay 4 5 6 7 8
39.25% 29.89% 29.49% 29.45% 29.40% 28.43% 27.23% 25.82%
France - Argentina Brazil - Spain England - Germany Brazil - Switzerland Uruguay - Argentina
Games Finished
Normal 74.2% a.e.t. 12.6% Penalties 13.2%
Does it affect a team, the group will play the lottery? YES
Greece Portugal Change Winners Position had improved Portugal and Brazil Position had deteriorated Greece and Argentina Second Stage Position had improved Portugal,Brazil and Korea DPR Position had deteriorated Argentina,Nigeria and Korea Republic
Uruguay Paraguay Change Winners Position had improved Uruguay and Argentina Position had deteriorated Paraguay and Slovakia Second Stage Position had improved Uruguay and South Africa Position had deteriorated Paraguay,Slovakia and New Zealand
Real 1 Brazil 2 Spain 3 Argentina 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Uruguay Portugal Mexico Greece Slovakia Serbia Switzerland Chile 17.7% 11.4% 9.5% 3.5% 3.4% 2.6% 2.3% 2.1% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.4% 94.0% 82.5% 77.8% 68.8% 60.5% 58.0% 47.7% 47.7% 46.4% 42.9% 41.5% 36.8% 21.6% 20.2% 5.6% 3.2% 0.4%
Po rtu g a l x Gre e ce Wi n n e r 1 Brazil 2 Spain 3 Argentina 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Portugal Uruguay Mexico Greece Slovakia Serbia Switzerland Chile 18.3% 11.9% 8.9% 3.6% 3.4% 2.5% 2.1% 2.1% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.4% 96.0% 78.3% 77.8% 69.4% 60.5% 57.5% 49.7% 48.1% 47.7% 46.1% 41.7% 35.4% 20.3% 16.9% 5.7% 3.2% 0.7%
Pa ra g u a y x U ru g u a y 1 Brazil 2 Spain 3 Argentina 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Uruguay Portugal Mexico Greece Serbia Slovakia Switzerland Chile 17.7% 11.4% 10.0% 4.2% 3.4% 2.9% 2.3% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.1% 93.9% 82.8% 82.3% 71.8% 69.1% 64.6% 46.2% 44.4% 43.1% 42.1% 37.7% 36.6% 21.5% 20.4% 8.2% 2.0% 0.4%
18 Paraguay 1 Brazil 6 7 9 10 Argentina France Portugal Uruguay
18 Paraguay Se co n d Sta g e 1 Brazil 6 7 9 10 Argentina France Portugal Uruguay
18 Paraguay 1 Brazil 6 7 9 10 France Argentina Uruguay Portugal
11 Paraguay 16 Slovakia 17 Denmark 18 19 21 22 Switzerland Nigeria Australia Cte d'Ivoire
11 Paraguay 16 Cte d'Ivoire 17 Slovakia 18 19 21 22 Denmark Switzerland Australia Nigeria
11 Mexico 16 Switzerland 17 Paraguay 18 19 21 22 Nigeria Chile Slovakia Cte d'Ivoire
28 Korea Republic 29 Honduras 30 South Africa 31 New Zealand 32 Korea DPR

28 Honduras 29 Korea Republic 30 South Africa 31 New Zealand 32 Korea DPR
28 Korea Republic 29 Honduras 30 South Africa 31 New Zealand 32 Korea DPR
bwin
Bookmakers
Ladbrokes
June 9, 2010
Summary
Winner Brazil Spain Argentina Italy England Netherlands Germany France 17.7% 11.4% 9.5% 8.6% 8.0% 5.5% 5.2% 4.6%
Final 28.2% 20.0% 17.0% 16.4% 15.4% 11.4% 10.6% 9.8%
SF 42.7% 32.9% 30.9% 29.8% 30.6% 21.6% 21.9% 21.7%
QF 62.8% 52.6% 51.0% 59.0% 53.1% 47.6% 41.0% 43.0%
R16 94.0% 91.3% 82.5% 91.1% 86.0% 86.4% 76.4% 77.8%
FINAL MATCH Argentina - Brazil Argentina - England Argentina - Spain Argentina - Netherlands Argentina - Italy France - Argentina Argentina - Germany Argentina - Greece Uruguay - Argentina Argentina - USA Mexico - Argentina Argentina - Portugal Argentina - Slovakia Argentina - Chile Argentina - Switzerland Argentina - Serbia Argentina - Paraguay Argentina - Denmark Argentina - Slovenia Argentina - Cte d'Ivoire Argentina - Ghana Argentina - Australia Argentina - Nigeria Argentina - Cameroon Argentina - Algeria Argentina - Honduras Argentina - Japan Argentina - Korea Republic South Africa - Argentina Argentina - Korea DPR Argentina - New Zealand 3.06% 1.69% 1.36% 1.17% 1.12% 1.05% 0.89% 0.83% 0.75% 0.73% 0.59% 0.59% 0.48% 0.38% 0.38% 0.38% 0.36% 0.22% 0.19% 0.16% 0.14% 0.12% 0.10% 0.07% 0.06% 0.06% 0.05% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 16.98%
SEMI-FINALS 18.02% 9.94% 8.00% 6.89% 6.61% 6.16% 5.23% 4.88% 4.39% 4.27% 3.46% 3.44% 2.84% 2.23% 2.22% 2.22% 2.10% 1.32% 1.09% 0.96% 0.84% 0.72% 0.58% 0.39% 0.38% 0.34% 0.30% 0.18% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% France - Argentina Uruguay - Argentina Mexico - Argentina South Africa - Argentina Argentina - Germany Argentina - England Argentina - USA Argentina - Serbia Argentina - Slovenia Argentina - Australia Argentina - Algeria Argentina - Ghana Argentina - Spain Argentina - Italy Argentina - Brazil Argentina - Portugal Argentina - Netherlands Argentina - Slovakia Argentina - Paraguay Argentina - Denmark Argentina - Switzerland Argentina - Cte d'Ivoire Argentina - Chile Argentina - Cameroon Argentina - Japan Argentina - Honduras Argentina - New Zealand Argentina - Korea DPR 6.47% 5.74% 4.92% 2.82% 2.59% 1.40% 1.29% 1.19% 1.14% 1.13% 1.06% 0.54% 0.43% 0.21% 0.01% 0.00% 30.93% QUARTER-FINALS 11.85% 11.03% 9.18% 5.94% 4.34% 3.36% 2.81% 2.48% 50.99% ROUND OF 16 29.45% 25.82% 24.37% 2.84% 82.48%
20.93% 18.55% 15.89% 9.11% 8.38% 4.52% 4.18% 3.84% 3.69% 3.65% 3.43% 1.74% 1.37% 0.68% 0.03% 0.00%
23.24% 21.64% 18.00% 11.65% 8.51% 6.60% 5.52% 4.86%
35.70% 31.30% 29.54% 3.45%
after extra time N= 1000000 L= Brazil 2

5.98% 9.45% 2.98% 2.95% 0.80% 0.17% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
47.26% 1.2582 3
2.10% 2.97% 2.54% 0.67% 0.42% 0.09% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
E= 14.76% Spain 1.0910 Spain 4

0.58% 0.76% 0.62% 0.36% 0.09% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
V= 54.64% 6
0.02% 0.03% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
37.98% 45.36% 7
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Ini
0 1 2 3
0
4.39% 13.82% 7.94% 3.23% 1.00% 0.25% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
1
12.02% 6.63% 10.85% 4.02% 1.17% 0.29% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
5
0.13% 0.16% 0.11% 0.07% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
9
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Brazil
4 5 6 7 8 9
N=
1000000
L= Italy 2
11.48% 12.21% 2.59% 1.73% 0.33% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
24.58% 0.8519 3
5.68% 5.53% 3.16% 0.55% 0.24% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
E= Brazil Brazil 4
2.23% 2.01% 1.05% 0.43% 0.07% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
13.24% 1.5514 5
0.68% 0.59% 0.29% 0.12% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
V= 31.20% 6
0.17% 0.15% 0.07% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
62.17% 68.80% 7
0.04% 0.04% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Ini
0 1 2 3
0
4.06% 8.82% 3.43% 0.94% 0.20% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1
16.13% 5.97% 6.70% 1.66% 0.32% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8
0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
9
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Italy
4 5 6 7 8 9
after extra time N= 1000000 L= Argentina 2

10.95% 12.41% 2.72% 2.01% 0.39% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
25.22% 0.9093 3
5.73% 5.90% 3.57% 0.65% 0.30% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
E= 12.51% Brazil 1.6205 Brazil 4

2.28% 2.21% 1.27% 0.53% 0.09% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
V= 31.48% 6
0.20% 0.18% 0.09% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
62.27% 68.52% 7
0.05% 0.04% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Ini
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0
3.45% 8.33% 3.50% 1.00% 0.23% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1
14.75% 5.60% 6.92% 1.86% 0.39% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
5
0.75% 0.68% 0.36% 0.16% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8
0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
9
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Argentina
N=
1000000
L= Argentina 2
7.22% 11.04% 3.24% 3.25% 0.88% 0.19% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
40.12% 1.2312 3
3.18% 4.40% 3.59% 0.87% 0.55% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
E= England
13.34% 1.3520 5
0.28% 0.36% 0.25% 0.14% 0.07% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
V= 46.79% 6
0.06% 0.08% 0.05% 0.03% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
46.54% 53.21% 7
0.01% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Ini
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0
3.17% 10.57% 6.00% 2.40% 0.75% 0.17% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
1
11.64% 5.92% 10.03% 3.67% 1.03% 0.25% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
England 4
1.04% 1.37% 1.06% 0.61% 0.13% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
8
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
9
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Argentina
References
Werkgroep Voetbal & Statistiek A Simulation Model for Football Championships Ruud H. Koning Michael Koolhaas Gusta renes Geert Ridder Department of Econometrics, University of Groningen UBS investors guide 2010 World Cup in South Africa Wealth Management Research April 2010 J.P. Morgan England to Win the World Cup!. A Quantitave Guide to the 2010 World Cup. Europe Equity Research 18 May 2010 The World Cup and Economics 2010. Goldman Sachs Economics,Commodities and Strategy Research May 2010 www.eloratings.net
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Goals are assumed to follow a Poisson distribution.