Category 报告

Theme1 生态
Theme2 生物多样性
Publishing date
2023/04/17
(UTC)
Source National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Source CN 美国国家经济研究局
Stefano Giglio-Professor of Finance at Yale University, Theresa Kuchler-
Author name Associate Professor of Finance at New York University's Stern School of
Business, etc.
斯特凡诺·吉格里奥（Stefano Giglio，美国耶鲁大学金融学教授）、特
Author CN 蕾莎·库奇勒（Theresa Kuchler，美国纽约大学斯特恩商学院金融学副
教授）等
Title Biodiversity risk
Title CN 生物多样性风险
生物多样性在经济中发挥着重要作用，生物多样性丧失带来的风
险会从多方面影响企业和行业，但这种风险影响难以被量化和系统研
究。报告研究了与生物多样性丧失相关的物理 风险和监管风险，以及
对经济活动和资产价值造成的影响。
报告开发了一种基于新闻的综合生物多样性风险测量方法，并分
析了其随时间变化的情况。基于（1）对企业 10-K 报告表的文本分
析，（2）对，以及对金融专业人士、监管机构和学者以及生物多样
性相关基金的持有量的大规模调查，（3）生物多样性相关基金控股
情况，报告提出了几种衡量企业层面所面临的生物多样性风险的新方
法。研究发现，由于对自然资本的依赖程度不同，不同行业面临的生
物多样性风险具有较大差异。生物多样性风险最高的行业包括能源、
公共事业和房地产，而半导体、软件和通信服务行业的企业面临的生
Abstract 物多样性风险最低。研究还发现，基于生物多样性风险排列组合的投
资回报与生物多样性风险指数呈正相关， 说明生物多样性风险已经影
响到股票价格。
此外，报告调查了市场参与者关于金融市场资产价格是否充分反
应了对生物多样性风险充分定价的看法，大约近一半的受访者认为，
股票、大宗商品、主权债务和房地产市场的生物多样性风险 尚未被充
分定价定价过低，14%-19%的受访者认为目前定价合理，只有少数的
受访者认为定价过高，约 35%的受访者未发表意见对风险定价没有特
别看法。
报告最后指出了生物多样性风险量化领域的未来研究方向，包
括：跨资产类别生物多样性风险定价的综合研究；对不同类型生物多
样性风险的细化研究；对生物多样性风险和气候风险之间相互作用的
进一步研究。（56 页）
URL https://www.nber.org/papers/w31137
ABSTRACT
We explore the effects of physical and regulatory risks related to biodiversity loss on economic
activity and asset values. We first develop a news-based measure of aggregate biodiversity risk
and analyze how it varies over time. We also construct and publicly release several firm-level
measures of exposure to biodiversity risk, based on textual analyses of firms’ 10-K statements, a
large survey of financial professionals, regulators, and academics, and the holdings of
biodiversity-related funds. Exposures to biodiversity risk vary substantially across industries in a
way that is economically sensible and distinct from exposures to climate risk. We find evidence
that biodiversity risks already affect equity prices: returns of portfolios that are sorted on our
measures of biodiversity risk exposure covary positively with innovations in aggregate
biodiversity risk. However, our survey indicates that market participants do not perceive the
current pricing of biodiversity risks to be adequate.
报告研究了与生物多样性降低相关的物理和监管风险，对经济活动和资产价值造成的影响
报告首先开发了一种基于新闻的综合生物多样性风险测量方法，并分析了它随时间的变化
基于对公司 10-K 报表的文本分析、对金融专业人士、监管机构和学者的大规模调查以及生
物多样性相关基金的持有量，研究还提出了几种衡量企业所面临生物多样性风险的新方法
并于生物多样性风险官方网站（www.biodiversityrisk.org）上发布。由于对自然资本的依赖
程度不同，不同行业面临的生物多样性风险差异很大，这不同于气候风险。研究发现，生
物多样性风险已经影响到股票价格：基于生物多样性风险排列组合的投资回报与生物多样
性风险指数呈正相关，相关系数高达 0.2。然而调查表明，市场参与者并不认为目前市场已
对生物多样性风险充分定价。
“对自然资本的依赖程度不同”这一句在原文的另一处，而且仅指物理风险，因此删掉。

Conclusion
Biodiversity plays a fundamental role in the economy and risks stemming from biodiversity loss
can affect firms and industries through many channels, yet they can be difficult to quantify and
study systematically. The goal of this paper is to introduce measures of aggregate biodiversity risk
as well as measures of firms’ and industries’ exposures to these risks; to connect and validate the
two; to study the pricing of this risk in financial markets; and to publicly release our biodiversity
exposure measures at www.biodiversityrisk.orgto facilitate more research on this important topic.
生物多样性对经济产生重要影响，生物多样性减退的风险会从方方面面影响企业和行业，
但这种影响难以量化和系统研究。

The paper is meant to provide a starting point for quantitative analysis of biodiversity risk. Many
extensions and refinements could be pursued. Among them: an integrated study of the pricing of
biodiversity risk across asset classes; a refinement of the different types of biodiversity risk (e.g.,
species vs. ecosystem diversity); and a more fundamental understanding of the interactions
between biodiversity risk and climate risk. We leave these to future research.
报告还提出了生物多样性风险量化领域的未来研究方向，包括：跨资产类别生物多样性风
险定价的综合研究；对不同类型生物多样性风险的细化研究；对生物多样性风险和气候风
险之间相互作用的进一步研究。

To provide some initial insights into this important question, we asked the respondents to our
survey whether they believed that prices across a range of asset classes appropriately reflected
biodiversity risks. Table 4 highlights that about half of all survey respondents generally believed
that asset markets underpriced biodiversity risks across equity markets, commodity markets,
sovereign debt markets, and real estate markets (about 35% of respon- dents had no particular
views on the pricing of these risks, while fewer than 5% of respondents believed that these risks
were overpriced).
We conclude by reviewing evidence from our survey on market participants’ perceptions of
whether biodiversity risk is adequately priced in financial markets. About half of the respondents
believe that these risks are not sufficiently priced across stock, commodity, sovereign debt, and
real estate markets, while 14%-19% of respondents believe that they are correctly priced. Only a
handful of respondents believe that biodiversity risks are overpriced in these asset markets (while
about 35% of respondents had no opinion).