Professional Documents
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KT's RCM Notes (L5 - 10)
KT's RCM Notes (L5 - 10)
● Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism: concerns over safety and security
constitute the primary reason for not wanting to visit a destination.
● Pizam (2010): guest safety is a primary concern in the hotel sector of the hospitality
industry.
● Critical question for safeguarding guests:
○ Who will update management on the latest technology to ensure a safe
environment?
○ Who will establish fire safety and security procedures?
○ Which parameters decide safety/security policy and general guidelines?
○ How are the various risks communicated to guests and staff?
Overview
● According to the World Bank, disasters hurt the poor and vulnerable the most.
● From 1998 through 2018, 91% of storm- related fatalities were in low- and middle-
income countries, even though these countries experienced just 32% of storms.
● Since 1980, more than two million people and over $3 trillion have been lost to disasters
caused by natural hazards
● Total damages have increased by more than 600% from $23 billion a year in the 1980s to
$150 billion a year in the last decade.
● The Bank’s Shock Waves report finds that almost 75% of the losses are attributable to
extreme weather events, and climate change threatens to push an additional 100 million
people into extreme poverty by 2030.
● The Bank’s Unbreakable report finds that natural disasters have had large and long-lasting
impacts on poverty.
● Population growth and rapid urbanization are driving the increase in disaster risks.
● The United Nations estimates that more than two-thirds of the world’s population will live
in cities by 2050.
● The Bank’s Aftershocks report explains that these trends could put 1.3 billion people and
$158 trillion in assets at risk from river and coastal floods alone.
● On the other hand, investing in more resilient infrastructure can provide a net benefit in
low- and middle-income countries of $4.2 trillion, with $4 in benefit for each $1 invested,
according to the Bank’s recent Lifelines report.
● Such investments can improve the quality and resilience of essential services – such as
transport, or water and electricity supply – and thereby contribute to more resilient and
prosperous societies.
● Mainstreaming disaster risk management into development planning can reverse the
current trend of rising disaster impact.
● When countries rebuild stronger, faster and more inclusively after disasters, they can
reduce the impact on people’s livelihoods and well- being by as much as 31%, potentially
cutting global average losses.
● If countries act decisively, they can save lives and assets.
● However, many developing countries lack the tools, expertise, and instruments to factor
the potential impacts of disasters into their investment decisions.
1. Risk Identification
● Losses (historical disasters) are not known, hence DRM is given low priority
● Appropriate communication of risk info @ right time= raise awareness & trigger action
3. Preparedness
● Plan evacuation routes, create shelters, run preparedness drills
○ Requires understanding of the geographic area affected, along with the intensity
and frequency of different hazard events
● Providing a measure of the impact of different hazard events (to establish detailed &
realistic plans for better response to disasters -> reduces severity of natural disasters)
E.g. potential num of damaged buildings, fatalities and injuries, secondary hazards
4. Financial Protection
● Micro-insurance or household earthquake insurance -> For govt to manage
sovereign financial risk or support programs that manage individual financial risks
5. Resilience Reconstruction
● Risk assessment can play a critical role in impact modelling before an event strikes
e.g. typhoon
○ Can provide initial and rapid estimates of human, physical, and economic
loss in an event’s immediate aftermath.
● Rarely time to collect info needed to inform resilient design & land-use plans
CASE STUDY
● Due to ^ of natural disasters & heavy loss, the intl community begam paying attention to
research on prevention & control of natural disasters (DRM)
● In 2003, World Tourism Org (WTO) published “Guide to Risk Management of Tourism
Industry” to specially instruct treatment & management of industry
After the 5.12 WenChuan Earthquake, some common probs can be concluded in
research:
A) Confusion in Management System
● Disaster prevention and control in the tourist destinations is generally the responsibility of
the local government and the tourism administration bureau
● Most scenic areas can cooperate with relevant organizations to conduct safety supervision
and management (to prevent, control & manage natural disasters)
● However, rapid increase in tourists & frequent occurrence of natural disasters resulted in:
1) Multiple management and unclear system (many govt branches -> messy admin r/s, lack
mgmt systems & operational mechanisms in case of disaster)
2) Emphasis on rescue above prevention (leads to unnecessary losses to travelers &
industry)
3) Misunderstanding of the work on disaster for tourism administration (lack active
awareness & action for prevention of disaster)
4) Information system construction lags behind other work (low lvl of shared info resources
-> unclear alarming channels, blocked/slow info transmission)
5) Lack of strength in training on disaster reduction and prevention (for tourists, tour
guides, relevant working staff)
6) Professional disaster rescue teams are scattered in various departments and not
sufficient in number
B) Dependency on Forecast
Success rates for short-term impending earthquake forecast is rather low
1. Forecasting earthquakes
Place: Meaningful if error falls below several hundred kilometres
Time: Meaningful when the error is abt 1 week
Magnitude: Meaningful when error falls below lvl 1 (1 lvl is 32x the energy released than
the lvl below it)
3. Earthquake forecasting is just one part in disaster reduction and preparation against
disaster
● Disaster forecasting is focused on assessment, monitoring just first-phase pre-warning,
then response.
Risk Management Framework for Natural Disaster
● 3 Elements of Disaster: Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability
● Risk Assessment & Risk Treatment:
Step 1:
○ It requires identification and analysis of risk, that is to determine the geological
location, scope, strength and possibility of hazard
○ Further, it requires determination of the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body
system and elements.
○ System vulnerability includes susceptibility, resilience and coping capacity, and
exposure and loss evaluation.
Step 2:
○ It requires analysis and profiling of a risk scenario, including 5 aspects such as:
■ Space (site and scope)
■ Time scale
■ Situation
■ Loss/influence
■ Possibility of occurrence.
○ The purpose of such an analysis is used to answer three basic questions:
■ Why did it happen?
■ How large is the possibility of occurrence?
■ What is the influence or consequence?
1. Context Definition: used to give a definite risk object for a tourist destination that usually
involves tourists, local residents, tourist administration and tourist enterprise.
2. Risk analysis: used to find the possible risk of a disaster according to historic records and
modern technology.
3. Risk evaluation: used to determine the risk level i.e. risk that can be accepted, and
subdivide risk scenarios and measurement as well as conducting social and economic cost-
benefit analyses and providing options for action points and the level of priority to risk
assessors.
4. Risk management (treatment): means to take some measures as transfer risk, retain risk,
avoid risk, reduce risk according to the risk evaluation.
L9: Competitive Risk
● Third aspect of strategic risk (out of 5)
● Competing with other companies for higher position & consumer ratings to gain max
benefits
● Associated with risk of declining biz rev/profit margins due to competitors
○ Indicators of overcoming competitive risk: ^ mkt share, sales, degree of penetration
into intl mkts
● 7 Types of Competitive Risk:
○ Pricing - lower cost; steep discounts -> due to excess inventory/aggressive pricing
strategy can start price wars
○ Innovation - new innovations by competitor can threaten biz
○ Locations - competitor opens biz next to urs/secure better location; may b a good
thing -> drive cust traffic
○ Human Resources - competitor viewed as more attractive employer -> loss of skilled
HR
○ Promotions - attract ur cust away; may put ur brand/pdts in bad light
○ Distribution - competitor may achieve preferred position w ur partners e.g. retailers,
suppliers
○ Intellectual Property - competitor may secure I.P. that's impt to current/future pdts
High _above factors_ = Internal governance becomes more advantageous than market
mechanisms
Business Model:
● Acquire or divest hotels to establish good portfolio of larger, full-service hotels (upper-med
to high-end segments) -> attracts biz & leisure demand
● Acquire underperforming hotels & invest in them by refurbishments/repositioning
● Managed under a few types of agreements:
1. Property Management (2 Pandox Hotels):
■ Management Agreement: Intercontinental, Hyatt
2. Operator Activities (Majority of Pandox Hotels):
■ Independent: Hotel Berlin, Hotel Bloom! In Brussel
■ Franchisee: Crowne Plaza, Hol Inn, Hilton
Agency Theory:
● A relationship where one pty (Agent) acts on behalf of another (Principal)
● When goals, risk appetite & interests differ, such relationship may be problematic:
1. Franchising: (Agent) is expected to operate a branded biz in line with interest of
franchisor (Brand owner principal)
2. Separation of hotel ownership & operation: Hotel owner is the principal of hotel
companies that manage the owner’s property as their agent
Modal Choice:
● For hotels, they need to decide whether there is one “best way” for them to expand, while
retaining control over brand standards, key personnel and other intangible assets
● Over the years, hotels are employing “multi-modal”/”Plural-form” organisation structures:
1. Sale and Leaseback
Hotel companies sell their properties to 3rd party, only to lease the building back
from the new owner to continue & operate it
Sale and manage back is preferred by most hotel companies as leaseback option
would create long term liability for the operator (in addition to uncertain hotel
income).
● Most hotel organisations prefer signing management/franchise agreements for hotels
owned by 3rd party as they can grow faster
The Dilemma
CEO OF Pandox (Mr Anders Nissen)
● Ardent promotor of the lease model as a way to structure the relationship between a hotel
owner and a hotel operator
● Believes that management agreements do not create an equitable partnership as owner is
taking 100% of the risk while operator reaps benefit on the upside (unequal share of risk)
○ 2 Pandox hotels under management contract; majority being leased to operator
Pandox Director of International Operations (Mr Aldert Schaaphok)
● Not logical for a manager who is:
a) Rewarded (thru mgmt fees; largely on basis of hotel rev)
b) Claiming full control of actual operation
:., can make/break a hotel's profitability. Hence, compensation shld be based more
on bottom line than on revenue
● Believes that mgmt of hotel ops shld be separated from branding & distribution svces
● Owners should hire local/independent mgmt companies if they dw operate themselves
● Large brands develop innovative hospitality concepts too slowly