Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology 19 (2019) 155–166

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Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecohyd

Review Article

A review on lake eutrophication dynamics and recent

developments in lake modeling
Biswajit Bhagowati, Kamal Uddin Ahamad *
Department of Civil Engineering, Tezpur University, Napaam 784028, Assam, India

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Article history: Lake eutrophication is one of the major ecological concerns over the world in recent times.
Received 12 July 2017 Most of the [21_TD$IF]freshwater lakes and wetlands are facing the problem of water quality
deterioration and ecological imbalance due to the increasing anthropogenic activities
Accepted 6 March 2018 particularly in developing countries. The understanding of the mechanism and
Available online 12 March 2018 identification of the sources of eutrophication will be beneficial to [2_TD$IF]mitigate the problem
through proper management policy. Mechanism and effects of eutrophication[23_TD$IF] described
Keywords: within various case studies all over the world, and [24_TD$IF]the [25_TD$IF]evolution [26_TD$IF]of [27_TD$IF]modelling approaches
Algal bloom
for their mitigation has been reviewed in this paper. [28_TD$IF]With [29_TD$IF]the [30_TD$IF]advancement [31_TD$IF]of [32_TD$IF]ecosystem
Cyanobacteria
[3_TD$IF]modeling, [34_TD$IF]it [35_TD$IF]has [36_TD$IF]become [37_TD$IF]feasible [38_TD$IF]for [39_TD$IF]the [40_TD$IF]governmental bodies and [41_TD$IF]policy [42_TD$IF]makers [43_TD$IF]to
Eutrophication
Static models
[4_TD$IF]propose [45_TD$IF]better [46_TD$IF]lake [47_TD$IF]control [48_TD$IF]schemes [49_TD$IF]and [50_TD$IF]restoration [51_TD$IF]programs, [52_TD$IF]through [53_TD$IF]their better
Dynamic models predictive capacity. [54_TD$IF]While [5_TD$IF]prediction [56_TD$IF]and [57_TD$IF]control [58_TD$IF]of eutrophication of lakes now has
[59_TD$IF]become [60_TD$IF]easier [61_TD$IF]than [62_TD$IF]before, [63_TD$IF]refinements [64_TD$IF]are [65_TD$IF]still [6_TD$IF]going [67_TD$IF]on [68_TD$IF]owing to the ever-increased
complexity and [69_TD$IF]lake [70_TD$IF]specific [71_TD$IF]problems [72_TD$IF]that [4_TD$IF]require [73_TD$IF]wider [74_TD$IF]experience [75_TD$IF]and [76_TD$IF]more details. The
current status of knowledge about lake eutrophication and advances in ecological[7_TD$IF] and
hydrodynamic modeling will be of great use for future research prospects.
ß 2018 European Regional Centre for Ecohydrology of the Polish Academy of Sciences.
Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction the deeper parts of the waterbody due to the decay of

Eutrophication is one of the most challenging environ-
mental problems that the surface water bodies are facing
in present time (Smith and Schindler, 2009; Li-kun et al.,
2017). Eutrophication is an ecological process, similar to
aging, in which a water body is increasingly enriched with
essential nutrients of the aquatic plants (Rast and
Thornton, 1996) which results in increase of the primary
productivity, i.e. rate of photosynthesis of the aquatic
ecosystem (Qin et al., 2013). The most common signs of
eutrophication in lakes and rivers involve heavy algal
blooms resulting in high turbidity and anoxic conditions in
* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: kahamad@tezu.ernet.in (K.U. Ahamad).
detritus which leads to fish kills (OECD, 1982; Schindler
et al., 2008; Wang and Wang, 2009). Eutrophication may
lead to severe health hazards to human and animals
through various pathways. It is a major health threat if
drinking water is collected from [78_TD$IF]an [79_TD$IF]eutrophied [80_TD$IF]waterbody.
Eutrophication also results in serious ecological problems
as well as have impact on the esthetic view and economy.
In general, lake eutrophication phenomenon can be
classified into two categories; natural and cultural. Natural
eutrophication process takes place very slowly in geologi-
cal time but can be greatly accelerated by anthropogenic
activities which is generally referred to as man-made or
cultural eutrophication (Rast and Thornton, 1996; Khan
and Ansari, 2005; Serrano et al., 2017). Increases in
populations, environmental pollution in various forms,
intensification of land use and application of nutrients as

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecohyd.2018.03.002
1642-3593/ß 2018 European Regional Centre for Ecohydrology of the Polish Academy of Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
156 B. Bhagowati, K.U. Ahamad / Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology 19 (2019) 155–166
agricultural fertilizers in the developed countries from the
1940s onwards (Chloupek et al., 2004) and use of
phosphate compounds in laundry detergents from the
1950s (Kroes, 1980) have accelerated cultural eutrophica-
tion of water bodies all over the world. In the middle of
twentieth century eutrophication was recognized as a
water pollution problem in many [81_TD$IF]Western European and
North American lakes and reservoirs (Rohde, 1969).
Thereafter, it has become more widespread, especially in
some regions; it has caused deterioration in the aquatic
environment and serious problems for water use, particu-
larly in drinking-water treatment.
It is generally accepted that excessive nutrient input
mainly nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), are the key factors
accelerating the process of eutophication in aquatic
ecosystems (Vollenweider, 1968; Hecky and Kilham,
1988; Lowery, 1998; Smith, 1998; Gurkan et al., 2006).
Because nutrients can come from different point and non-
point sources comprehensive strategies are required to
mitigate or reverse eutrophication (Carpenter et al., 1998,
Smith et al., 1999). Earlier studies revealed that eutrophi-
cation can be managed by limiting the nutrient input (N or
P) to the waterbody (Schindler, 2006), however, proper
knowledge of physical, chemical and biological processes
that occur in the waterbody during eutrophication process
gives better restoration success (Lewtas et al., 2015). With
the advent of mathematical modeling approach to
encounter eutrophication problem after the work of
Vollenweider (1968), Schindler (1977), Dillon and Rigler
(1974), etc. few decades back, new dimension has been
achieved in lake restoration programs as these models can
give a better insight to the problem and very much
accurate in terms of its predictive power (Bryhn and
Hakanson, 2007). In this paper, an attempt has been made
to review various lake eutrophication cases all over the
world and recent advances in ecological modeling for lake
restoration and eutrophication control programs. The
development of ecological modeling from the late 80s,
different model types, various factors and processes
considered in modeling context especially the recent ones
has been addressed in this paper which may be useful to
encounter new research challenges.
2. Eutrophication mechanism and assessment
Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are the key elements for
the algae, bacteria, protozoa, and other aquatic [82_TD$IF]organisms
that compose the [83_TD$IF]freshwater ecosystem. But excessive
inflow of these elements may result in eutrophication of
water bodies. To minimize the organic pollution of water,
general practice is to reduce the biochemical oxygen
demand (BOD) level of household and industrial waste-
waters which positively [84_TD$IF]correlates [85_TD$IF]with organic pollution.
[86_TD$IF]Higher [87_TD$IF]concentration of nitrogen and [8_TD$IF]phosphorous in the
public water areas, may cause negative ecological con-
sequences on aquatic ecosystem structures, processes and
functions, [89_TD$IF]result in fast growth[5_TD$IF] of phytoplankton[6_TD$IF], and
deteriorate water quality, especially in the summer.
Application of [90_TD$IF]fertilizers and chemicals to[7_TD$IF] crops and their
subsequent [91_TD$IF]runoff to the nearby [92_TD$IF]waterbodies may also [93_TD$IF]cause
nutrient enrichment. Runoff, especially from urban and
agricultural areas, carries fertilizers, pesticides, sediment,
and/or industrial effluent that accelerate eutrophication
when discharged into a [94_TD$IF]waterbody (Smith et al., 1999).
Surface waters may host increased growth of algae or
cyanobacteria, wherever conditions of temperature, light
and nutrient status are conducive. When such propagation
is dominated by a single (or a few) species, the phenomenon
is referred to as an algal or cyanobacterial bloom (Chorus
and Bartram, 1999).
Eutrophication is a process of nutrient enrichment and
is used to characterize the state of aquatic ecosystems. The
‘trophic status’ of the [94_TD$IF]waterbody is used as a description of
the [94_TD$IF]waterbody for this purpose. To understand the nutrient
status of a [94_TD$IF]waterbody the terms oligotrophic, mesotrophic,
eutrophic and hypertrophic are normally used (Walmsley,
2000). Oligotrophic is the state of low in nutrient
concentration and not productive in terms of aquatic
animal and plant life. These lakes have very little algal
production and suitable for drinking purpose. Mesotrophic
is an intermediate level of nutrients, fairly productive in
terms of aquatic animal and plant life and showing the
initiation of signs of water quality problems. Eutrophic is
the state where [94_TD$IF]waterbody is rich in nutrient concentra-
tion, very productive in terms of aquatic animal and plant
life and shows increasing signs of water quality problems.
Due to the increased algal load, water becomes less
transparent. Hypertrophic is the state where excessive
nutrient concentrations prevail, and plant growth may be
determined by physical factors. Water quality problems
are serious and almost continuous. Water becomes less
transparent and aquatic life ceases at lower depths due to
loss in dissolved oxygen content. To assess the trophic
status of a [94_TD$IF]waterbody there is no perfect or fixed evaluation
criteria. However, to assess the trophic stage or eutrophi-
cation, the general parameters adopted were total nutrient
concentration (N and P), algal chlorophyll, water transpar-
ency and dissolved oxygen concentration etc. Although
there are numbers of assessment parameters, for simplici-
ty it is convenient to associate the trophic status in terms of
nutrient concentration as this is the key factor controlling
the process (Yang et al., 2008). General guideline for the
nutrient concentrations representing different trophic
status of a [94_TD$IF]waterbody are summarized in Table 1.
It was reported by Yang et al. (2008), that as the total
phosphorus and nitrogen [95_TD$IF]concentrations [96_TD$IF]exceed 20 mg/L
and 300 mg/L respectively[97_TD$IF], this initiates the concern of
eutrophication. Richardson et al. (2007) have considered a
threshold concentration of total phosphorus [98_TD$IF]at 12–15 mg/L
which creates ecological imbalance of algal, macrophytes
and other aquatic organisms. Apart from the mentioned
indicators to assess water eutrophication some other
parameters also have been developed in recent times.
Cheng and Li (2006) have defined total nutrient status
index (TNI) as a parameter to measure the trophic state of a
[94_TD$IF]waterbody. TNI is a parameter which relates all other
parameters concerned viz. total nitrogen (TN), total
phosphorus (TP), Chlorophyll a, dissolved oxygen (DO),
chemical oxygen demand (COD) and biological oxygen
demand (BOD) of water. Yang et al. (2008) have
recommended the use of biological indicators for moni-
toring aquatic ecosystem health as eutrophication results
 B. Bhagowati, K.U. Ahamad / Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology 19 (2019) 155–166
Table 1
N and P concentrations in different trophic states of water bodies.
Trophic status Total phosphorus (mg/L) Total nitrogen (mg/L)
Oligotrophic 5–10 250–600
Mesotrophic 10–30 500–1100
Eutrophic 30–100 1000–2000
Hypertrophic >100 >2000
in degradation of the same. Biological indicators may
include aspects considering structural and functional
mechanisms. Structural aspect such as phytoplankton cell
size and biomass, zooplankton[1_TD$IF] size and biomass, phyto-
plankton to zooplankton ratio etc. can be considered.
Functional indicators can be resource use efficiency,
production to respiration ratio etc. According to the widely
accepted definition, eutrophication is the process by which
water ecosystems become enriched in dissolved nutrients
(mainly phosphates and nitrates) – this means that the
cause of eutrophication is always the excess of biogenic
substances. However, the effect of eutrophication may be
deterioration of water quality and blooms of algae and
cyanobacteria. For these effects to occur, the conditions
that favor them are necessary like high concentration of TN
and TP, favorable temperature and environmental condi-
tions, slow current velocity and microbial activity and
biodiversity in the [94_TD$IF]waterbody (Li and Liao, 2002).
3. Case studies
According to the survey of International Lake Environ-
ment committee (ILEC), (1988–1993), in the Asia Pacific
Region, 54% of lakes are eutrophic; the proportions for
Europe, Africa, North America and South America are 53%,
28%, 48% and 41% respectively. Tremendous increase in
human population in the last century have converted
eutrophication from local issue to a global concern
(Wassmann and Olli, 2005). So limnological studies on
lakes, rivers, and streams have been emphasized in recent
times due to degradation of water quality due to
eutrophication (Saxena et al., 1988). Lake Erie, one of
the largest of the Great Lakes in North America is a best
example of eutrophication due to manmade problems. The
lake (388 km long and 92 km wide) has a maximum depth
of 64 m and an average depth of 19 m. Since the lake is
shallow and warm, and it is highly rich in nutrients, the
lake is biologically the most productive (Reutter, 1989).
Nutrient enrichment mainly with phosphorus in the lake
has resulted in huge blooms of floating blue-green algae
and the attached green algae. The blooms resulted in lesser
light penetration in the lake which reduced the photosyn-
thesis and oxygen production by other phytoplankton
groups. Further depletion in the dissolved oxygen was
observed as the bloomed algae died (Reutter, 1989). It was
observed all forms of [9_TD$IF]phosphorus entering Lake Erie were
not biologically available to phytoplanktons; the reduction
of bioavailable or soluble phosphorus is more important
than reducing total [10_TD$IF]phosphorus (TP) input to control
nutrient overloading (Welch and Cronke, 1987). A sum-
mary of different cases of eutrophication in major lakes in
157
References
Cheng and Li (2006), Richardson et al. (2007), Yang et al. (2008)
different parts of the world are summarized in Table 2
along with the major causes for eutrophication in the
particular lake. For most of the cases presented here, it has
been observed that the major cause of lake eutrophication
are human induced ones and, so it is the cultural
eutrophication which needs to be given utmost attention.
It is evident that cultural eutrophication cases are ever
increasing in all parts of the world.
In China, water eutrophication has been reported in 67
lakes which is about 51.2% of the total number of lakes.
According to Yang et al. (2008), approximately 30 billion
ton of polluted water would be discharged directly into the
lakes, therefore, by 2030, all the urban lakes and most of
the medium-sized lakes at the urban–rural fringe areas in
China may be facing the problem of water eutrophication.
In India, majority of lakes and urban water bodies are also
facing the problem of water quality deterioration and
decrease in water volume because of rapid urbanization
and industrialization. In the beginning of 1960s Bangalore
city had 262 lakes, now only 10 hold water. Similarly, in
2001, 137 lakes were listed in Ahmedabad city, and over 65
were reported being already built over (Excreta Matters,
2012). There are other examples in India that shows such
devastating state of urban water bodies and degradation of
water quality. Garg et al. (2002) have conducted a study on
three lakes of Bhopal viz. Upper Lake, Lower Lake and
Mansarovar Lake in India. The potential fertility of lake
waters and aquatic flora was examined, and it was
reported that the highest level of eutrophication was
found in Mansarovar Lake. Lake Mirik in the Darjeeling,
was studied for its hydro[10_TD$IF]-biological properties and it was
[102_TD$IF]demonstrated that in various portions of the lake nutrient
concentration[103_TD$IF] had been very high and potable water
quality [104_TD$IF]had been spoiled (Jha and Barat, 2003). Other cases
of [105_TD$IF]lake [106_TD$IF]eutrophication have been reported to Fatheh Sagar
lake in Udaipur[12_TD$IF], Sagar lake in Madhya Pradesh (Pathak and
Pathak, 2012)[107_TD$IF]; the reasons for deterioration of water
quality for all the cases primarily being high nutrient
enrichment through anthropogenic activities.
4. Eutrophication control and modeling approach
For a successful lake restoration and eutrophication
mitigation plan, the basic aim is to identify the sources of
pollution and their subsequent remediation. Prevention of
domestic and industrial wastewater disposal into the
water bodies, removal of nutrients in wastewater treat-
ment level were used successfully for lake restoration in
1960s in some of the lakes. In 1936, Lake Monona in USA
was successfully restored by diverting the sewage to
another lake and algal bloom reduced noticeably
158 B. Bhagowati, K.U. Ahamad / Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology 19 (2019) 155–166

Table 2
Lake eutrophication cases from different parts of the world.

Region Lake Depth The main cause References

Florida, USA Okeechobee Lake Max. 3.7 m, Large P inputs from surrounding area. Schelske (1989)
Ave. 2.7 m.
Florida, USA Apopka Lake Ave. 4.7 m. High P loading from floodplain farms; elevated Coveney et al. (2002)
levels of nutrients, phytoplankton, and
suspended matter.
Louisiana, USA City Park Lake – Sewage contamination from the neighboring Ruley and Rusch (2002)
residences
Washington, USA 17 Western – Internal P loading was reported as major cause Welch and Cronke (1987)
Washington Lakes compared to external sources for summer algal
blooms.
Northern Greece Pamvotis Lake Max. 11 m, Ave. Discharge from Agricultural, industrial and Romero et al. (2002),
4.5 m. urban sectors in last 40 years. Søndergaard et al. (2007)
Poland Jaroslawieckie Lake Max. 6.56 m Large catchment area of agriculture and forests Peleehaty et al. (1997)
Mean 3.68 m
Greece Kastoria Lake – Surface runoff rich in agricultural wastes and Koussouris et al. (1991)
underground seepage from urban and rural
areas
Between Switzerland Lugano Lake Max. 288 m High discharge of P (140 mg/m3) and oxygen in Barbieri and Simona (2001)
and Italy (Glacial lake) Ave. 134 m the hypolimnion reduced to zero
Netherlands Majority of the Shallow lakes The input of P & N and of polluted waters from Gulati and van Donk (2002)
lakes the rivers and canals
Denmark Majority of the Shallow lakes High nutrient input from domestic sources and Jeppesen et al. (1999)
lakes agricultural activities
Zimbabwe Chivero Lake Max. 27 m Hypereutrophic with sewage effluents Nhapi (2004)
(Ramsar wetland)
China Taihu Lake Ave. 2 m Nutrients unloading from local industries and Weimin et al. (1997), Jin
(Shallow lake) agricultural areas et al. (2005)
Japan Biwa Lake (surface Max. 104 m Urbanization and industrialization in the Yamashiki et al. (2003)
area 674 km2) vicinity of the lake
India Lake Bellandur Max. 9.21 m Addition of effluents from the urbanized city Chandrashekar et al. (2003)
(surface area and presently in hypereutrophic stage
3.61 km2)
Assam, India Deepor Beel, a Max. 4 m Continuous flow of sewage and municipal solid Churing Still Water (2012)
RAMSAR wetland Ave. 1 m waste dumping have degraded the water
quality severely

(Edmondson, 1969). But it was quite obvious that this
measure just shifted the problem to the other lake. In a
joint effort between US and Canada in 1972, lake
restoration had been implemented to Lake Erie which
mainly focused on reducing the domestic and industrial
input to the lake and it was reported that phosphorus loads
from municipal discharges reduced by 84% in 1985
(Makarewicz and Bertram, 1991). However, presence of
other species such as Microcystis, Anabaena, Aphanizome-
non, etc. were observed thereafter and other factors such as
increased agricultural runoff, climatic factors[108_TD$IF], etc. contin-
ued to alter the natural ecosystem balance of the Great
[109_TD$IF]Lakes (Kane et al., 2009; Hecky et al., 2004). Similarly,
water quality improvement in Lake Washington has been
reported by Edmondson (1969), by nutrient removal in
waste water treatment plants. However[10_TD$IF], more detailed and
scientific insight to tackle eutrophication came after the
work of Vollenweider (1968, 1976), where algorithms
were provided to calculate nutrient retention in lakes. He
gave the concept of permissible levels of total nitrogen
(TN) and total phosphorus (TP) by considering the volume
of the [1_TD$IF]waterbody [12_TD$IF]where high volume of nutrient loading is
permissible for larger lakes. Other parameters such as
internal phosphorus loading from sediments, water
retention time, gaseous nitrogen fixation, etc. and their
role also has been considered in this work. Another major
scientific knowledge on eutrophication mitigation was
obtained from the work of Schindler (1977). Schindler
(1977) conducted study on three experimental lakes in
Canada for several years and observed that algal biomass is
dependent on TP concentration and not on TN as the short-
term N deficits are compensated by cyanobacterial fixation
of atmospheric N in due course of time. Therefore, it was
concluded that it is the TP and not the TN that need to be
removed in order to prevent eutrophication. But generality
of this concept has been disputed in the later phase by
other researchers (Elser et al., 1990; Bergström et al., 2005)
where mainly N was found responsible for lake eutrophi-
cation and considerably low N fixation rate has been
observed. Though the debate was centered mainly on N
and P, some other micronutrients such as iron, sulphate,
silicon, molybdenum and organic micronutrients (e.g.
vitamins) were also paid attention by Rast and Thornton
(1996). But these components were found to be of more
importance in case of marine ecosystem (Riley and
Chester, 1971; Provasoli and Carlucci, 1974; Rast and
Lee, 1978). Based on these findings several [13_TD$IF]static (Vollen-
weider type) models have been developed in the succeed-
ing period which were more or less accurate in terms of its
predictive power and [14_TD$IF]were site specific. However, with
the development of dynamic time dependent models
in recent times, it has been possible to apply them with
better accuracy and also has wide range of limnological
domain (Bryhn and Hakanson, 2007). Development of the
 B. Bhagowati, K.U. Ahamad / Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology 19 (2019) 155–166
above-mentioned types of ecological models and their
applicability has been discussed in the succeeding section
and more emphasis has been given to the recent
developments in dynamic modeling for lake eutrophica-
tion control.
4.1. Modeling approaches
In general, all the ecological models are more or less
empirical and mechanistic (Aldenberg et al., 1995) and can
be classified as static Vollenweider type models and
dynamic models (Bryhn and Hakanson, 2007). Static
models consider that lake has received a constant nutrient
input for a long time; that is, based on steady state
assumption. These models calculate nutrient concentra-
tion in lake water from lake specific parameters such as
nutrient retention time, mean depth of [15_TD$IF]a [80_TD$IF]waterbody, water
flushing rate apart from nutrient input rate etc. and are
based on comparative studies. It has the advantage that, it
is suitable for non-specialists and are easy to use and can
give rough estimation of nutrient concentration. On the
other hand, dynamic eutrophication models require more
input parameters compared to static models and they
show the variations with time while the latter is bound
within certain time span. A dynamic model generally
consists of ordinary or partial differential equations and
describes the dynamic mass balance of nutrients in aquatic
ecosystem. Since nutrient fluxes [16_TD$IF]into [15_TD$IF]a [80_TD$IF]waterbody are not
constant but vary with time, a dynamic model may predict
the nutrient concentration more accurately as shown in
Fig. 1 (Bryhn, 2008). However, many of the driving
variables in dynamic modeling may come with certain
uncertainty whose variations and knowledge are generally
very poor (Jensen et al., 2006) so getting rid of such
uncertainty is a major challenge in dynamic modeling.
Most of the eutrophication models in the early develop-
ment stage were static types, but rapid development in
dynamic modeling has been observed in the recent times
as these models can give a deeper insight into the
eutrophication mechanism with higher predictive power.
4.2. Early development stage
The first eutrophication model was given by Vollen-
weider in 1968 as discussed earlier. Development of
[(Fig._1)TD$IG]
ecological modeling in the succeeding period was based on
Fig. 1. A dynamic mass balance of an aquatic ecosystem.
Source: Bryhn (2008).
159
the scientific insight of this work. The work of Sakamoto
(1966), where the relation of nutrients and chlorophyll-a
was first established by conducting study in some Japanese
lakes, were used with data of North American lakes by
Dillon and Rigler (1974) to form a statistical model
between TP and Chlorophyll-a. In this model correlation
coefficient (r2[20_TD$IF]) was 0.95. Another model gained popularity
in eutrophication control is the OECD model, which is an
empirical modification of the Vollenweider model. This
model was tested for 87 lakes with varying values of TP
concentration and retention time and results yielded
correlation coefficient (r2) value as 0.86. Many other
similar static load models were presented thereafter by
Kirchner and Dillon (1975), Larsen and Mercier (1976),
Jones and Bachmann (1976), Nicholls and Dillon (1978),
Ostrofsky (1978), Chapra and Reckhow (1979), Nurnberg
(1984), Ahlgren et al. (1988), etc. All these static models
were designed in more or less similar fashion. It is
considered that the lake is a completely mixed steady
state reactor and one or few simple equations were
employed to calculate the outflow load of nutrients, mainly
P, with outflow water and the quantity of load retained in
sediments. The input variables considered in these models
are nutrient influx (TP concentration), water retention
time and occasionally water mean depth. General output
variables are TP in the lake water and TP retention. These
models are very simple as the input variable for any lake
can be measured and by using simple empirical relation-
ships output variable may be found out. Nutrient
concentration in inflow water can be measured directly
and by conducting morphometric study, mean depth of
water and water retention time can be found out. For
example, Canfield and Bachmann (1981) adopted follow-
ing empirical equations to predict mean annual TP
concentration in lake water.
TP ¼ 0:8L=ðDm ð0:0942ðL=Dm Þ0:422 þ KTÞ
TP ¼ 0:49L=ðDm ð0:0926ðL=Dm Þ0:510 þ KTÞ
TP ¼ 0:603L=ðDm ð0:257 þ KTÞ
where TP is Annual mean lake TP concentration in mg/
m3[17_TD$IF], L is area TP load in mg/m2-year, Dm is mean water
depth, KT is lake water retention (or sedimentation) rate in
year1. Due to their simplicity, static models gained
popularity and frequently used in practical lake mitigation
and control plans. But these models do not account for
factors such as internal nutrient loading from the
sediments, bioavailable nutrient concentration, seasonal
variation of nutrient flux etc. which lead to uncertainty in
predicting nutrient concentration for individual lakes
(Håkanson, 1999). Especially, its nutrient predictive
efficiency will seriously hamper in case of recovering
lakes having internal nutrient loading where the lakes are
not at all in steady state (Jensen et al., 2006). These factors
prompt the development and popularity of dynamic
models in the recent times and are found to have better
accuracy over the static ones.
4.3. Recent developments in modeling approach
From the late 90s to till date, ecological modeling has
developed tremendously. Now it has become possible to
[(Fig._2)TD$IG]
160 B. Bhagowati, K.U. Ahamad / Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology 19 (2019) 155–166
Fig. 2. Typical dynamic eutrophication model diagram showing different variables and processes.
Source: Jørgensen (1999).
find a eutrophication model suitable for any kind of lake
with better predictive capacity. But still new lake models
are developing day by day, having wider and complex
domain for better restoration policy making. Now a day,
the dynamic models are quite advanced and tend to
consider various aspects of the problem by coupling
ecological and hydrodynamic processes, adaptation and
alteration in species composition in[19_TD$IF] a waterbody, etc.
(Jørgensen, 2010). Fig. 2 illustrates a typical dynamic
eutrophication model with different variables and pro-
cesses (Jørgensen, 1999). Models such as ‘‘PCLake’’
(Aldenberg et al., 1995; Janse, 2005) ‘‘Lake Mab’’
(Håkanson, 2000; Håkanson and Boulion, 2002), ‘‘LEEDS’’
(Håkanson and Carlsson, 1998; Håkanson, 1999a,b;
Malmaeus and Håkanson, 2004) etc. developed in the
late 90s gained popularity and modifications were
implemented in the later phases are well documented
in the literature, hence not repeated in this paper. In the
present paper a general overview of the new techniques
and factors that are being considered in ecological
modeling in recent times are discussed as presented
below under different sub-headings.
4.3.1. Suspended particulate matter (SPM)
Malmaeus and Håkanson (2003) have given a dynamic
model for prediction of suspended particulate matter
(SPM) in lake water. Various pathways of SPM have been
considered such as tributary inflow, indigenous produc-
tion, sedimentation, transportation, erosion, re-suspen-
sion, mixing etc. The model has been tested against
empirical data set of several European lakes and it was
seen that it had close agreement with the empirical data
set. All the easily accessible variables such as lake area,
mean depth, nutrient inflow and climatic factors had been
considered for model input variables. From the model
uncertainty and sensitivity analysis it was concluded that
quantifying allochthonous and autochthonous SPM gener-
ation were quite uncertain to predict compared to internal
processes like sedimentation and mineralization.
4.3.2. Integration of sophisticated mathematical approaches
in ecological modeling
Yadav et al. (2017) have used satellite remote sensing (a
Landsat-8 image) to develop a model for shallow, eutrophic
lake Biwa in Japan. The model was used to evaluate the
submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) coverage area and its
biomass for the peak growth period. Algorithm based on the
linear regression approach (R2[18_TD$IF] = 0.77) was used to deter-
mine the water clarity for the period 2013–2016, which was
later used for SAV classification and biomass estimation. It
was found that water clarity is very much essential for the
SAV detection and biomass estimation using satellite
remote sensing in shallow eutrophic lakes and the results
demonstrates the successful application of satellite-based
approach for SAV biomass estimation in shallow eutrophic
lakes. Yan et al. (2017) have proposed a rough set and
multidimensional cloud model (RSMCM) for prediction of
trophic status and nutrient status value of water bodies. This
model was applied to 24 major lakes and the results were
very much consistent and give more accuracy compared to
other models.
4.3.3. Hysteresis response of vegetation and water quality
Zhang et al. (2003a,b) have developed a structurally
dynamic model for Lake Mogan to show the hysteresis
response of vegetation and water quality with increases
 B. Bhagowati, K.U. Ahamad / Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology 19 (2019) 155–166
phosphate concentration. The model had[120_TD$IF] in total nine state
variables including P in phytoplankton, zooplankton, the
sediment, the pore water in the sediment, the submerged
plants, epiphytes, the detritus, soluble reactive phosphate
(PO42) and planktivorous fish in the lake. It was found that
in between TP concentration 0.16 and 0.25 mg/L, water
state changes from fresh to turbid bringing in significant
changes in submerged plants. The model was able to
predict the shifts from submerged vegetation to phyto-
plankton at about 0.25 mg/L P-concentration and again
from phytoplankton at about 0.10 mg/L P-concentration
which similar to the observations by Scheffer et al. (2001).
Through the model results, it was concluded that restora-
tion of shallow lakes is much slower than eutrophication
rate and above the threshold concentration of P, i.e.
0.25 mg/L, restoration of submerged plants may not be
feasible.
4.3.4. Multi variable models
Arhonditsis and Brett (2005a,b) had proposed a complex
multi elemental model for restoration of Lake Washington,
USA. The model takes into account multiple nutrient cycles
(C, N, P, Si, O), different phytoplankton and zooplankton
diversities. The model provided a good fit between
simulated and observed monthly values with relative error
below 20% for major water quality parameters like TP, TN,
DO, phytoplankton, etc. The model could successfully
simulate the loading scenario of 1962 (when the lake
received maximum treated sewage effluent) and predicted
the phytoplankton response, nitrogen and phosphorus
cycles accurately. Zhao et al. (2008) have proposed
consideration of wide range of variables for improvement
of eutrophication models. They suggested use of multiple
nutrients cycles (P, N, Si, C and O), functional groups of
phytoplankton (diatoms, green algae and cyanobacteria),
and inclusion of two zooplankton groups: copepods and
cladocerans into account. Their model results suggest that
use of recent advances in stoichiometric nutrient recycling
theory is beneficial in examination of the food quality. Their
results indicate significant model improvement but param-
eterization particularly of the zooplankton processes should
be reliable and robust.
Mukherjee et al. (2008) have developed a model for
analysis of the carbon cycle in a simulated pond for
assessment of cultural eutrophication. The major processes
studied were photosynthesis, respiration and decomposi-
tion that play an important part in balancing the nutrient
content of the system and maintain a dynamic equilibrium.
In eutrophication models, the carbon cycle is usually not
considered in detail, but this model study shows that the
nutrients processes are dependent on proper and detailed
description of the carbon cycle. Insights of this work may
have great application in development of eutrophication
models. Perhar et al. (2013), have given a zooplankton
submodel to study the behavior of zooplankton physiology
and behavior by enhancing an existing eutrophication
model of Arhonditsis and Brett (2005a,b). The model
simulates the interplay of N, P and highly unsaturated fatty
acids (HUFA) through the grazer’s digestive tracks. The
model provided a good epilimnetic and hypolimnetic
patterns in Lake Washington (USA).
161
4.3.5. Biomanipulation
Another model was given by Gurkan et al. (2006), for
Lake Fure in Denmark, considering three prognosis
scenarios for forecasting the restoration effects. The model
was validated by taking two years data and it was reported
that the combined effect of aeration of sediment and
biomanipulation by removing the trash fish was more
successful for reduction of Phytoplankton and TP in the
lake compared to individual application of processes.
However, the model had some limitation as the data used
were having lower confidence which resulted in large
deviations in the validation simulations for zooplankton,
the peak values of cyanobacteria, and the timing of
phytoplankton, zooplankton and cyanobacteria in the
calibration and validation simulations. In a study carried
out by Ofir et al. (2017), a food web modeling approach
have been used to predict the impact of lake biomanipula-
tion on water quality by taking Lake Kinneret as a case
study. In this study, a time dynamic model (Ecosim) has
been used which is based on Ecopath model to study lake’s
food web (Ofir et al., 2016). The model was used to see the
effect of the long term biomanipulation program imple-
mented in the lake from 1996 to 2012. The model includes
total 26 groups, considering different groups of phyto-
plankton, zooplankton and fish species to represent
important components of lake foodweb. The simulation
results revealed that the biomanipulation program applied
in the lake failed to improve the water quality, rather it
deteriorates the water quality with increase in phyto-
plankton growth.
4.3.6. Seasonal variation of [12_TD$IF]nutrient [12_TD$IF]budget and foodweb
interactions
Jensen et al. (2006) have developed an empirical model
for seasonal fluctuation of TP concentration to external
loading in 16 shallow eutrophic lakes in Denmark based on
7–8 years mass balance data. The model was intended to
describe the early recovery phase where external loading is
low compared to internal loading. Model results revealed
that estimated mean TP concentration deviated 12% on
average compared to the observed values and closely
resembled the seasonal dynamics following the external
loading reduction. However, the model was not able to
describe the seasonal variations during the shift from
turbid to clear water state. Håkanson and Boulion (2002),
have developed a model named ‘‘Lake Foodweb’’ to
quantify all lake foodweb interactions where a sub-model
‘‘LakeMab’’ was first presented for TP, which is a process
based mass balance model. Thereafter this model has been
modified by Håkanson and Bryhn (2008) for TP applicable
to all types of lakes. This model is based on ordinary
differential equations and mass balance of inflow, outflow
and internal fluxes. Model was tested for different 41
numbers of lakes and it was found that that model could
successfully predict the TP concentrations in water.
Moreover, it can give additional information regarding
TP in sediments, sedimentation, temporal changes, surface
and deep-water volumes etc. not only in surface water
level but also in deep water level and sediment level.
Zhang et al. (2008) has given a two-dimensional
eutrophication model of Lake Erie, by considering coupling
162 B. Bhagowati, K.U. Ahamad / Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology 19 (2019) 155–166
between hydrodynamics and the food web of lower trophic
levels. This fine scale dynamic model considers air
temperature, wind conditions and inputs from atmosphere
and tributaries. This study also considered detailed
zooplankton model and how to include impact of zebra
and quagga mussels. The model has 18 state variables and
was acceptably validated. Results indicated that dreissenid
mussels have weak direct grazing impacts on algal
biomass, but indirect effects of their nutrient excretion
have a greater impact on the ecosystem. Seasonal variation
of [123_TD$IF]phytoplankton and nutrient budget in Bizerte Lagoon,
Tunisia, was reproduced in a 3-D coupled biogeochemical
model (Béjaoui et al., 2017). Model simulation results
showed that plankton production is highest in the inner
part of the [94_TD$IF]waterbody due to high water retention time and
contribution of nutrients from boundary. Both N and P
loading contribute to the production of plankton. Intensive
use of fertilizers in the catchment and contribution of
Mediterranean Sea to the [124_TD$IF]lagoon have impact on the
increased plankton growth. Several other authors have
presented three dimensional models to simulate hydrody-
namics and nutrient cycling in shallow lakes which are
effective in forecasting water quality and algal growth (Jin
et al., 2007; Li et al., 2011; Zhang et al., 2013).
Page et al. (2017) have conducted a study on the
Windermere, Bassenthwaite Lake and Esthwaite Water, in
North West England. They have used model PROTECH (Elliott
et al., 2009; Elliott, 2010, 2012) for process representation of
algal community using high frequency in lake observations
for real time forecasting of algal bloom. The model’s
uncertainty and sensitivity were tested within the General-
ized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation framework which
includes pre-defined Limits of Acceptability for simulations.
From the model simulations, it was observed that differences
between underwater light in real lake systems studied and
model’s representation and the uncertainties associated
with nutrient fluxes are of great challenge while forecasting
algal bloom. Li-kun et al. (2017), have[14_TD$IF] developed a 2-
dimensional uncertainty eutrophication model for urban
lakes in China. The model could simulate the interactions
between nutrients, phytoplankton and zooplankton and also
seasonal and regional water quality changes can be
described. Comparison between model simulation and field
data revealed that the model could calculate the hydrody-
namic data and eutrophication dynamics reasonably with
relative error less than 11%. The results showed that the
concentration of nitrate, phosphate, ammonia and chloro-
phyll-a at the vicinity of lake was higher than at the middle
indicating that rainwater runoff had a major impact on the
algal bloom which needs to be taken care.
4.3.7. Life cycle of Cyanobacteria
Hense and Beckmann (2006) have modeled the life
stages of Cyanobacteria considering four life stages. The
investigation indicates that for better prediction of
Cyanobacterial blooms, knowledge of all stages of the life
cycle has to be made and it is not sufficient only to consider
temperature and P/N ratio into account. The model study
improved the understanding[125_TD$IF] of harmful cyanobacteria
bloom and its prediction as it is the major part governing
eutrophication mitigation and control.
4.3.8. Mathematical models to predict dissolved oxygen
concentration
Mishra (2007) has proposed a model for ecosystem
dynamics in [126_TD$IF]an eutrophied [94_TD$IF]waterbody by considering
concentration of nutrients, densities of algal population,
zooplankton population, detritus and the concentration of
dissolved oxygen as the variables. Here the nutrient input
was considered from water runoff from agricultural fields
unlike the work of Voinov and Tonkikh (1987), where they
have considered detritus as only nutrient source and not
any other external. The model analysis successfully
simulated the eutrophication process and was able to
draw relationship between the variables considered.
Results showed that as the supply of nutrients increases,
the densities of algae and other aquatic species increases. A
decrease in the concentration of dissolved oxygen is
observed when the density of detritus increases. Shukla
et al. (2008) gave a mathematical model for [126_TD$IF]an eutrophied
[94_TD$IF]waterbody affected by organic pollutants. The cumulative
concentration of organic pollutants, the densities of
bacteria, nutrients, algae, detritus and the concentration
of DO are the variables considered for the model. Model
analysis revealed that the simultaneous effect of both
water pollution and eutrophication decreases the DO level
at a higher rate compared to presence of only one
phenomenon. Alvarez-Vázquez et al. (2009) presented a
mathematical model simulating the interactions of nutri-
ent, phytoplankton, zooplankton, organic detritus and
dissolved oxygen into the eutrophication processes. For
the observed five variables, unique solution has been
achieved for eutrophication with non-smooth coefficients.
4.3.9. Climate change
Reid and Crout (2008) have developed a thermody-
namic model of freshwater Crooked Lake in Antarctica.
From the model simulations, it was observed that
freshwater lake ice is affected more by air temperature
than any other variable and so can serve as a useful
indicator of climate changes. The model could successfully
reproduce earlier data with r2[14_TD$IF] value 0.89 and can be used to
follow the climate changes and compare different climate
change scenarios. The impact of global warming on lake
water temperature have been addressed by Yamashiki
et al. (2010). Sensitivity analysis for climate change
scenario on lake water temperature was done by
integrating MRI-GCM with 20 km outputs and BIWA-3D
model for lake Biwa in Japan. A significant temperature
increase in surface water during summer have been
projected for the very hot year determined form MRI-
GCM output for the year 2099 compared to the tempera-
ture in 2002. Model results also revealed that the thickness
of epilimnion also increases for very hot year owing to
higher atmospheric temperature and the accumulated
heat in the hypolimnion may result in severe degradation
of lake ecosystem.
4.3.10. Integration of hydrodynamics and ecological
processes
Fragoso et al. (2008) have developed a 2-dimensional
model that to describe the spatial heterogeneity in a large
shallow subtropical lake in Brazil. The model had [127_TD$IF]three
 B. Bhagowati, K.U. Ahamad / Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology 19 (2019) 155–166
modules[128_TD$IF]: hydrodynamic module, nutrient module and
biological module to describe phytoplankton growth. The
model depicts the advantages that can be achieved by
coupling of the hydrodynamic and ecological components
in lake modeling. The model was able to identify zones
with a higher potential for eutrophication, so can be very
beneficial tool for eutrophication control to predict trophic
status of subtropical lakes and estuaries. The hydrody-
namic model Hydrax (Oppermann, 2010) and the water
quality model QSim (Kirchesch and Schöl, 1999) were used
by Lindim et al. (2015), to study the effect of nutrient
reduction (N and P) to lake restoration in a German shallow
lake. The simulation results reveal that for a successful
water quality control both internal and external P load
should be reduced. Combined reduction of both N and P
was not found to be beneficial as compared with only P
whereas reduction of only external N load was not found to
have significant impact on ecosystem. It has been reported
that P loading of only 400 g may lead to production of 350
tons of algal bloom (Sharma, 1998). These findings are also
in agreement with the findings of Wang and Wang (2009).
From the long-term studies in 40 Yangtze lakes and the
lakes of North America, it was generalized that N
abatement may not decrease the phytoplankton as it
can stimulate nitrogen fixing cyanobacteria and P is the
key factor governing total phytoplankton biomass. How-
ever, effect of climate, nitrogen and other factors should
also be considered for proper lake management program
(Watson et al., 2016). Rucinski et al. (2016) have given a
model for forecasting of ecosystem response to altered
phosphate loading to Lake Erie. The 1-dimensional model
was a linked hydrodynamic and eutrophication model and
calibrated with 19 years of observations of the lake in the
central basin. The results demonstrate that hypoxia can be
reduced by controlling nutrient loading however varia-
tions will be observed depending on the climate and
meteorological conditions. The model was quite effective
in setting phosphorus loading targets to meet the water
quality standards of the Great lakes. A mass balance model
was given by Chapra et al. (2016), to simulate TP
concentrations for Lower Great Lakes based on measured
and estimated TP loading in time series for managing long
term water quality. The model results showed that loading
control on Lake Erie would have measurable effect on
offshore phosphate concentration of the Lower Great
Lakes.
5. Discussion and conclusion
It is quite evident that dynamic modeling has under-
gone tremendous refinement in recent times and several
new processes have been tested and the results obtained
are very much consistent to be used as a predictive tool for
lake eutrophication control specially in cases where
adaptation and species composition plays a crucial role
in the ecosystem. Coupling of ecological models, hydrody-
namic models and watershed models are continuously
getting evolved. Factors such as effect of different
phytoplankton and zooplankton diversity, mussels and
biomanipulation studies on eutrophication dynamics have
been given more attention. Use of advanced uncertainty
163
and sensitivity analysis techniques, application of artificial
intelligence and remote sensing etc. are gaining popularity
in lake modeling in recent times. Impact of climatic factors
and effect of global warming on eutrophication dynamics
are also gaining popularity in modeling context. General
developments in recent modeling compared to the earlier
ones can be summarized as below.
i. Incorporation of multiple nutrient cycles (P, N, C, Si, O)
gives better insight of the eutrophication mechanism
(Arhonditsis and Brett, 2005a,b; Zhao et al., 2008).
ii. Effect of different [123_TD$IF]phytoplankton and [129_TD$IF]zooplankton
diversity, zebra and quagga mussels in eutrophication
modeling have been tested (Zhang et al., 2008).
iii. Response of aquatic vegetation, different phytoplank-
ton and zooplankton and fish species and their
alteration and adaptation with respect to nutrient
loading in different trophic condition have been
checked (Yadav et al., 2017; Zhang et al., 2003a,b).
iv. Cyanobacterial bloom, often considered as major
threat to lake ecosystem, has been given special
attention in many ecosystem models (Hense and
Beckmann, 2006).
v. Advances in stoichiometric nutrient recycling theory
has been applied in some eutrophication models
which helps in examination of the food quality (Zhao
et al., 2008).
vi. Eutrophication control through biomanipulation has
been paid attention (Gurkan et al., 2006; Ofir et al.,
2017).
vii. Use of 3-[130_TD$IF]dimensional models coupling hydrodynamic
models, watershed models and lake models are
gaining popularity in recent times in terms of better
predictive capacity and understanding of the in-depth
mechanism (Fragoso et al., 2008; Lindim et al., 2015;
Rucinski et al., 2016; Béjaoui et al., 2017).
viii. Incorporation of advanced methods of uncertainty and
sensitivity analysis like Generalized Likelihood Un-
certainty Estimation framework, have resulted in
better accuracy of the models with lesser relative
error in simulations (Page et al., 2017).
ix. Seasonal variation of nutrient loading, sediment
transport and nutrient release, suspended particulate
matter, climatic and temporal variations have been
paid attention (Jensen et al., 2006; Malmaeus and
Håkanson, 2003; Reid and Crout, 2008; Yamashiki
et al., 2010).
x. Advanced tools like remote sensing, rough set and
multidimensional cloud model etc. have been applied
in ecological modeling (Yadav et al., 2017; Yan et al.,
2017).
With the advancement of ecosystem modeling, it
[13_TD$IF]becomes feasible for the government bodies and policy
makers to make proper lake control and restoration
programs. Lake restoration done in recent times in some
of the lakes, like Lake Washington, Lake Erie etc., has been
possible mainly due to lake modeling approaches. Also,
drawbacks of already implemented programs and their
remediation has been possible with the help of modeling
studies like the case of Lake Kinneret. Recent dynamic
164 B. Bhagowati, K.U. Ahamad / Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology 19 (2019) 155–166
models are very useful tool for getting answers to
problems such as how trophic state of a lake[132_TD$IF] is going to[15_TD$IF]
change if certain amount of nutrient loading is reduced for
a certain time period. It can be also beneficial for
ascertaining sedimentation rate, sediment removal, time
require to regain original natural stage[13_TD$IF], etc. However,
selection of the variable in the model and their validation
in different lake condition, plays the crucial part for
successful prediction of lake eutrophication dynamics. In
an overall conclusion from the review of eutrophication
dynamics and recent advances in ecological modeling to
mitigate eutrophication, we can summarize that in the last
two three decades, many freshwater lakes turned into
highly eutrophied [92_TD$IF]waterbodies bringing changes in water
quality and affecting its natural habitat. Anthropogenic
activities are the major cause of rapid nutrient loadings
into most of the water bodies compared with the natural
sources such as sediment transportation, erosion of parent
rock etc. With the development of ecological modeling,
prediction and eutrophication control of lakes now has
become easier than before, however, refinements are still
going on owing to the ever-increased complexity and lake
specific problems that require wider experience and more
details.
Conflict of interest
None declared.
Ethical statement
Authors state that the research was conducted accord-
ing to ethical standards[16_TD$IF].
Acknowledgement
Authors gratefully acknowledges the financial support
received from DST-SERB, New Delhi, India.
Funding body
None.
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