Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

EX Cope Thunder Returns to the
Philippines

May 2, 2023

Q1. Do you think the return of Cope Thunder air force exercise in the Philippines is
significant?
ANSWER: Cope Thunder was inaugurated in the Philippines in 1976 and was held
continuously until 1990. Cope Thunder was moved to Alaska in 1992 after the eruption
of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991 rendered Clark Field unusable.
The Philippine Air Force acquired twelve South Korean F-50s light combat aircraft
during the period 2015-17. Cope Thunder-Philippines 23-1 represents a major step for
the Philippine-US alliance because it provides fighter training for Philippine Air Force
pilots, develops interoperability and contributes to deterrence.
The original Cope Thunder Exercise quickly evolved to become the U.S. Pacific
Airforce’s “premier simulated combat airpower employment exercise.” Cope Thunder
is held four times a year and usually lasts about ten days.
One hundred and sixty U.S. Air Force personnel and twelve USAF F-16 Fighting Falcons
aircraft participated in Cope Thunder 23.
Q2. Do you think EX Cope Thunder will grow to rival EX Cope North or EX Pitch Black?
ANSWER: At present, EX Cope Thunder is a bilateral exercise involving the U.S. and
the Philippines. EX Cope North is a trilateral exercise involving the U.S., Australia and
Japan. The 2023 iteration included France. Cope Thunder has every possibility of
developing along similar lines within the context of expanded defence cooperation
and military exercises among the Philippines, the United States, Australia and Japan
now under consideration. Cope North features air operations from dispersed locations
in the Pacific, including Guam, Japan, Mariana and Palau. Cope Thunder could easily
replicate this geographic spread in the Philippine archipelago.
The focus of Cope Thunder is the modern battle space. This year over 2,500 personnel
and 100 aircraft from seventeen nations were involved, including the Philippines.
Other participants included treaty allies, NATO members and regional states:
Australia, Canada, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Netherlands,
New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, UAE, the United Kingdom and the
United States.
Cope Thunder is unlikely to develop in size or scale to match the Pitch Black Exercise.
 2

Q3. What is the message for China?

ANSWER: Cope North is yet another illustration that regional states are increasingly
alarmed at the growth of China’s military power, Chinese aggressiveness in the region
and possible conflict over Taiwan. Regional states are banding together under U.S.
leadership to deter China by conducing realistic military exercises.
China will now have to take into account that the Philippines is gradually developing
the capacity to assert its sovereignty and that the U.S. is committed to observing its
obligations under the 1951 Mutual Security Treaty.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “EX Cope Thunder Returns to the Philippines,”
Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, May 2, 2023. All background briefs are posted
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.