GEOPOLITICS IN FLUX
SINCE RUSSIA’S INVASION STARTED IN UKRAINE, THE WORLD HAS BEEN FACING
F
ALOK BANSAL
Former naval officer,
Director, India Foundation
NIDHI BAHUGUNA
Senior Research Fellow at AEHRF
and a member of JKSC
CHALLENGES ON EVERY FRONT. THIS WAR HAS SHAKEN HUMANITY, FROM INFLATION
TO THE FOOD AND ENERGY CRISES. FURTHERMORE, NEW GLOBAL ALLIANCES ARE
TAKING PLACE, AND GEOPOLITICS IS ALSO CHANGING
ebruary 24, 2023, marked one year of
Russia’s ‘special military operation’ in
Ukraine, but it seems nowhere close to
culmination and has led to hardening of
positions and strengthening of hyper
nationalist narratives in both Russia and
Ukraine. The conflict has seen fiercest
battles in Europe since the Second World
War, but more significantly, has impacted
the global geopolitics in a manner, few other
conflicts in the post war era have. The war
is laying foundations of a new world order,
as it has impacted Europe tremendously
and in some ways the entire world.
It has impacted the global economy
adversely, which was already struggling
after the Covid shock. The economies of
Ukraine and Russia have been hit
adversely and the Eastern Europe and
Central Asia is witnessing an economic
contraction. The global inflation has sky
rocketed, whereas the growth projections
have come down. Vulnerable economies
like Turkey, Egypt, and Sri Lanka have
slipped into hyperinflation. Attempts by the
West to turn Moscow into an economic
pariah has created a global energy crisis,
14 March 5, 2023
as Russia is the world’s largest exporter of
natural gas, second largest exporter of oil,
and the third largest producer of coal. Its
collaboration with OPEC has pushed the
prices of oil and gas upwards. In addition
the conflict has created a food crisis as both
Russia and Ukraine are amongst the
largest producers of wheat and corn. It has
created a crisis for many in Africa and the
Arab world, as they have been dependent
for food on these two countries.
DENT TO THE US’ STATUS
The war severely dented the status of the
US, as it followed its disastrous withdrawal
from Afghanistan. Panic set in as Ukraine
suffered initial setback when the Russian
forces from Crimean Peninsula, not only
captured large territory in the South, but its
northern offensives from Russian and
Belarusian territory almost reached Kyiv
and Kharkiv. Faced with overwhelming air
superiority of Russians, Zelensky, the
Ukrainian President, requested the US for
a No-Fly Zone over Ukraine. The fact that
the US did not jump into the fray, created an
impression that it was an unreliable ally.
 ONE YEAR OF RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR
The US attempts to economically cripple the Russian
economy were also not completely successful. Even its allies
in the Europe were not on the same page about cutting
energy imports from Russia. There were differences
amongst them based on their level of dependence on
Russian energy. China and India not only continued
importing oil from Russia, but even increased it to benefit
from discounted prices. The US attempts to bring down the
energy prices by persuading OPEC to boost production, fell
on deaf ears. Leaders of KSA and UAE even refused to take
calls from the US President. Iran, eagerly waiting for the
restoration of Iran nuclear deal, also started making fresh
demands beyond JCPOA.
However, with time, the US salvaged its pride, by
bolstering aid to Ukraine, and using the conflict to test new
weapon systems by giving them to Ukraine. It has not only
stymied Russian advance but also succeeded in trapping
Russia into Ukrainian quagmire, by cajoling its European
allies to provide Kyiv with advance weaponry including
tanks. The US has also utilised its monopoly over the big
technology to use social media for building global perception
against Russia.
CHINK IN RUSSIA’S ARMOUR
On the other hand, despite its initial success, the war has
exposed the chinks in Russian armour. It was expected that
Russia would attain its objectives within a week or so, which
they have not been able to achieve, even after a year.
Notwithstanding the rhetoric, the war does not bode well for
Moscow. Although the western sanctions have not had the
desired effect, the Russian economy is certainly not doing
well. Geopolitically, the war has kick-started the enlargement
of the European Union, a process that had been stalled since
March 5, 2023
2013. The EU had been sitting on the bids of Moldova,
Georgia, and Ukraine; but the war compelled it to hasten the
process. The invasion has also accelerated the Eastward
expansion of the NATO. Russian offensive has pushed even
Sweden, which remained neutral for centuries, and Finland,
to apply for NATO membership. More significantly, the war
has made NATO powerful at a time when it was losing its
relevance, resulting in enhancement of defence allocations
by the member-states.
The conflict has also hardened the stance of most East
European and CIS countries against Russia. Many
traditional Russian allies have exhibited neutrality in this
conflict and are drifting away from Moscow. Only Belarus,
amongst the former Soviet states, has supported Moscow
in its invasion, but even its support seems to be dwindling.
Moreover, Russia’s image has taken a beating from which it
will take years to recover. Its powerful military has lost its
sheen and failure to attain its objectives has exposed chinks
in its armour.
EUROPE IN CRISIS
The conflict has highlighted European dissonance, wherein
members approach towards Russia has varied depending
on their economic linkages. It has not only enhanced
Europe’s economic problems, but also pushed it into
America’s lap. Ongoing media coverage of the battle has
militarised European polity and contributed immensely
towards bridging the trans-Atlantic divide. The war has
destroyed any chance of Europe emerging as a powerful
independent political entity not tied to the apron strings of
the US. It has brought into open the inherent differences of
European nations and has highlighted their dependence on
the US for security.
The long-drawn war and the persistent western hostility
have pushed Russia closer to China creating a marriage of
convenience against the common enemy. Both have found
a common voice on NATO’s eastward expansion and
Taiwan. There is mutuality in Sino-Russian ties, with Beijing
providing Moscow with economic and trade cushion while
getting security and energy guaranties. This could result in
Beijing’s emergence as a rival power centre to the US, with
Moscow slipping into Chinese geostrategic orbit. The conflict
has also diverted western attention away from China
towards Russia, which allows Beijing to pursue its own
agenda, unobtrusively. Fortunately, Russia’s failure to
achieve a quick success, has deterred China from pursuing
a similar agenda against Taiwan, but has increased its
aggressive posture.
The response of Asian states has been interesting and a
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 ONE YEAR OF RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR
ATTEMPTS BY THE WEST TO TURN MOSCOW INTO
AN ECONOMIC PARIAH HAS CREATED A GLOBAL
ENERGY CRISIS, AS RUSSIA IS THE WORLD’S
LARGEST EXPORTER OF NATURAL GAS, SECOND
LARGEST EXPORTER OF OIL, AND THE
THIRD LARGEST PRODUCER OF COAL
pointer to new emerging power equations. Most of them are
hedging their bets and are unwilling to take sides. Many of
them have withstood US pressure and are importing
cheaper Russian oil and trading in local currencies. Both
Japan and South Korea, which have close security ties with
the US, and perceive themselves as part of global alliance
of democratic forces, have condemned Russian invasion of
Ukraine. Japan has territorial disputes with both China and
Russia, but has flourishing trade with them. ASEAN has
been fairly divided and has taken a fairly weak stance on the
Russia-Ukraine war. Most dramatic shifts in Asia have been
in West Asia, which has traditionally towed the US line. Syria,
a Russian ally, has overtly supported Moscow, while others
have been reluctant to criticise Russia. Immediately after
the war, the rulers of Saudi Arabia and UAE declined to
speak with President Biden, but took calls from the Russian
President. The war has created a geopolitically fragmented
West Asia, where Iraq is moving away from Iran, Qatar from
Saudi Arabia, and UAE is pursuing a more independent
foreign policy. Turkey has emerged as a big factor as, it has
military muscle to back its allies, and controls traffic from
Black Sea, which allows it a major role in revival of food
exports from Ukraine. Though Iran is not directly affected by
the conflict, it could emerge as a major game changer in the
future. In spite of Biden’s efforts to revive the Iran nuclear
deal, Tehran is still smarting from Trump’s insult of scrapping
the deal and would not trust the US. It is far more inclined
towards Russia and China led anti -US bloc. Similarly, KSA
depending on the flow of the war would choose sides. It
speaks of an erosion of US influence, at the expense of both
Russia and China.
In South Asia, the Russia-Ukraine crisis has had wide
reverberations. Pakistan’s economy has been deeply
impacted by the war. Rising oil prices and the shortages
of wheat, have taken it to the verge of default. Similarly,
Bangladesh has also been deeply impacted by the
Russia-Ukraine conflict, as Russia is an important market
for its readymade garments and a major source of wheat
and millet supplies. Decreasing exports and rising import
bill, coupled with a disruption of supply lines due to war
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and sanctions, have severely impacted the economy.
INDIA’S BALANCING ACT
India has treaded a delicate diplomatic balance in the
Russia-Ukraine war. It has withstood western pressure to
take a firm stand against Russia. It has acted in its best
strategic and economic interest by pursuing ‘Strategic
Autonomy’, exhorting talks and negotiations to end the
war and limiting itself to expressing concern on the
humanitarian crisis unfolding. New Delhi has not issued
any statement supporting or opposing Russian invasion,
nor has it supported any sanctions. India needs to have
access to cheap energy, which Russia is providing and
that too at concessional rates. Moscow has been the
major arms supplier of India, with 60 per cent of Indian
weaponry being of Russian origin. The complex
geopolitics of India’s neighbourhood dictates that India
maintains its friendship and influence with Russia.
Russian influence in Afghanistan, Iran and Indian interests
in them require closer relationship with Moscow.
In trying to remain neutral, India has maintained healthy
ties with Ukraine. It ensured evacuation of its citizens from
active war zones and offered humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
India has been affected by the rising oil prices and
shortage of edible oil, which were primarily sourced from
Black Sea. More significantly, Russia’s growing
dependence on China and its ‘Greater Eurasian
Partnership’ and ‘No limit Friendship’ are of grave concern
to India, as it does not want to become a frontline state in
a new Cold War between te ‘Democracies’ and
‘Authoritarian regimes of Eurasia’.
BENEFIT TO CHINA
China, of course, has been one of the beneficiaries of this
war. The global gaze has shifted back to Europe, after a
brief focus on the Indo-Pacific, which leaves Beijing free
to pursue its own agenda. With Moscow leaning towards
it, as a junior ally, it has probably succeeded in forming a
bloc that could counter the US, their perceived common
enemy. The conflict has also taught Putin some bitter
lessons, who in his quest to take Russia back to the
position of the erstwhile USSR, has even lost influence in
its traditional backyard. Putin may redraw the map of
Europe, but his gains will be eclipsed by the loss of
Moscow’s long-term prestige and global image.
The war has affected global geopolitical and economic
equations far more than is often realised and the long term
impacts of shifting power equations could well shape a
New World Order. n
March 5, 2023