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Long-term trend analysis for temperature in the Jinsha River Basin in China

Article  in  Theoretical and Applied Climatology · August 2012

DOI: 10.1007/s00704-012-0603-4

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Theor Appl Climatol (2012) 109:591–603
DOI 10.1007/s00704-012-0603-4
ORIGINAL PAPER
Long-term trend analysis for temperature in the Jinsha River
Basin in China
Shunjiu Wang & Xinli Zhang
Received: 21 November 2011 / Accepted: 3 February 2012 / Published online: 24 February 2012
# Springer-Verlag 2012
Abstract On the basis of the mean annual and seasonal
temperatures from 30 meteorological stations in the Jinsha
River Basin (JRB) from 1961 to 2008, the temperature
trends are analyzed by using Mann–Kendall test and linear
trend analysis. There is an increasing trend in mean annual
and seasonal temperatures during this period, and the in-
creasing trends in winter seem more significant than those in
the other three seasons. The mean annual temperature has
increased by 0.0158°C/year during the last 48 years. There
are more than 70% of stations exhibiting increasing trends
for annual and seasonal temperatures. The increasing trends
in the headwater and upper reaches are more dominant than
those in the middle and lower reaches. The largest increase
magnitude occurred in the low temperature area, while the
largest decrease magnitude occurred in the high temperature
area. The decreasing trends are mainly characterized for the
maximum temperature time series, and summer is the only
season showing a slight and insignificant increasing trend.
All the time series showed a statistically significant increas-
ing trend at the level of α00.05 for the minimum tempera-
ture time series. As a whole, the increasing magnitude of the
minimum temperature is significantly greater than the de-
creasing magnitude of the maximum temperature.
S. Wang (*)
Institute of Plateau Meteorology,
China Meteorological Administration,
Chengdu 610072, People’s Republic of China
e-mail: wsjbnu@163.com
X. Zhang
Business School, Sichuan University,
Chengdu 610064, People’s Republic of China
1 Introduction
The Jinsha River Basin (JRB) is the main part of the upper
reaches of the Yangtze River. The Yangtze River, originating in
the eastern Tibetan Plateau, is one of the ten largest river
systems in the world (Weihua et al. 2008; Saito et al. 2001).
It feeds one-third of the 1.3 billion Chinese population and 40%
of Chinese Gross Domestic Product (GDP). As the largest river
in the region, the Yangtze River is historically, culturally and
economically important to China. In recent years, many
researchers investigated the trends of climate variables in the
Yangtze River or its upper reaches. For example, the trends of
precipitation in the Yangtze River Basin were analyzed (Xu et
al. 2006). Using precipitation data together with discharge data,
the spatial–temporal variability of precipitation during the last
half century in the Yangtze River Basin was analyzed, and the
Trend-Free Pre-Whitening Mann–Kendall (TFPW-MK) statis-
tical test was applied to assess the significance of trends (Xu et
al. 2007a, b). The long-term trend and periodic variation of
temperature and precipitation in the Chuanjiang Section of the
Yangtze River were analyzed by using both parametric and
nonparametric methods (Wang 2009). The trends of tempera-
ture, precipitation and evapotranspiration in the upper reaches
of the Yangtze River were analyzed (Wang et al. 2005). The
possible association between climate change trend over the
Tibet Plateau and the variability of water resources in the upper
reaches of Yangtze River was then investigated (Wang 2008).
As seen from the above analysis, most of the previous
studies focused on regional climatic changes in the Yangtze
River Basin or its upper reaches. However, a few studies have
been done on the climate tendencies in the JRB, except for
long-term variation tendency of the runoff in the mainstream
of the JRB (Xu et al. 2010; Chen et al. 2010). There has been
increasing concern about the threat of global warming in the
past decade. Global climate warming and its impacts have
592
Fig. 1 Location of the Jinsha River Basin in the Yangtze River Basin
and in China (all the gray shaded areas show the Yangtze River Basin
and the dark gray shaded areas show the Jinsha River Basin)
been a keys research area during the recent decades (Jaagus
2006). According to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)
from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
observational evidence for all continents and most oceans
showed that many natural systems are being affected by
regional climate change, particularly by the increase of air
temperature (Rosenzweig et al. 2007). In addition, the JRB is
Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of
meteorological stations used in
the JRB in this study (circled
digit one the Jinsha River,
circled digit two the Yalong
River)
S. Wang, X. Zhang
the “water source” of the Yangtze River Basin and is located
on the eastern side of the Tibetan Plateau, in which climate
changes have been paid more attention to by researchers in
recent years. Therefore, it is necessary to study the climate
changes in the JRB, especially temperature trends—one of the
most important climate factors. The temperature trend analy-
ses will provide further knowledge for understanding the
climate change in the JRB.
In this study, we analyzed mean annual and seasonal temper-
atures from 30 main meteorological stations during the period
of 1961–2008 in the JRB. The long-term trends of temperature
on annual and seasonal time scales are investigated, which
advance our understanding on the climate change in the JRB.
Moreover, the results of this study can potentially provide
important information for government decision-making.
2 Study area
Shown in Fig. 1, the JRB is located between 90°30′–105°15′E
and 24°36′–35°44′N in Southwestern China, which is also the
headwater of the Yangtze River. The JRB covers three
provinces including Qinghai, Yunan, Sichuan and Tibet
Autonomous Region in China. The drainage area of the
JRB is 473.2×103 km2, which is about 26% of the total
drainage area of the Yangtze River. The Jinsha River is
the mainstream of the JRB, and the Yalong River is the
biggest tributary of the JRB (Fig. 2). The Jinsha River is
3,464 km long, which is the westernmost of the major
Trend analysis for temperature in the Jinsha River Basin 593

headwater streams of the Yangtze River. Its mean annual
runoff is about 152×106 m3.
The JRB have attracted extensive attention nationally and
internationally due to its abundant resources for water and
electricity. The total exploitable installed capacity is
59,080 MW in the JRB, which is about 40% of the Yangtze
River and about one-sixth of that of China. According to the
China’s State Power Planning, four large hydropower stations,
namely, Xiangjiaba (installed capacity of 6.00×106 kW),
Xiluodu (installed capacity of 12.6×106 kW), Baihetan (in-
stalled capacity of 12.5×106 kW) and Wudongde (installed
capacity of 7.40×106 kW), are located in the JRB, which is
more than double capacity of the Three Gorges Hydropower
Station. Among them, the Xiangjiaba and Xiluodu hydropow-
er stations are under construction and will be completed in
2015. In addition, the JRB is one of the water sources in the
South-North Water Transmission Project (SNWTP). A total of
1.5 billion m3 water is to be transferred to the northern part of

Table 1 List of the meteorolog-

ical stations used in the JRB in Station ID Station name Longitude (°E) Latitude (°N) Altitude (m) Period of record
this study
The Jinsha River
The headwater of the Jinsha River
52908 Wudaoliang 93.08 35.22 4,614.2 1957–2008
56004 Tuotuohe 92.43 34.21 4,534.3 1957–2008
56021 Qumalai 95.78 34.13 4,176.4 1957–2008
56029 Yushu 97.01 33.01 3,682.2 1953–2008
The upper reaches of the Jinsha River
56144 Dege 98.57 31.73 3,199.3 1957–2008
56247 Batang 99.01 30.00 2,589.1 1952–2008
56443 Xiangcheng 99.08 28.93 2,841.7 1960–2008
56543 Xianggelila 99.7 27.83 3,277.1 1958–2008
The middle reaches of the Jinsha River
56487 Meigu 103.31 28.03 2,082.8 1959–2008
56565 Yanyuan 101.52 27.43 2,545.0 1957–2008
56578 Ningnan 102.75 27.07 2,461.2 1959–2008
56651 Lijiang 100.21 26.86 2,394.4 1951–2008
56664 Huaping 101.26 26.63 1,242.0 1957–2008
56675 Huidong 102.58 26.65 1,700.0 1959–2008
56684 Huize 103.28 26.41 2,113.4 1953–2008
56752 Binchuan 100.57 25.83 1,440.1 1955–2008
56763 Yuanmou 101.87 25.73 1,121.1 1956–2008
56768 Chuxiong 101.53 25.02 1,773.0 1953–2008
56778 Kunming 102.68 25.02 1,896.8 1951–2008
The lower reaches of the Jinsha River
56586 Zhaotong 103.71 27.35 1,950.0 1951–2008
56596 Weixin 105.01 27.85 1,173.3 1959–2008
56492 Yibin 104.06 28.08 341.6 1951–2008
The Yalong River
The upper reaches of the Yalong River
56034 Qingshuihe 97.13 33.80 4,417.5 1957–2008
56038 Shiqu 98.10 32.98 4,201.0 1961–2008
The middle reaches of the Yalong River
56146 Ganzi 100.00 31.62 3,394.2 1951–2008
56167 Daofu 101.12 30.98 2,958.7 1957–2008
56267 Yajiang 101.02 30.03 2,598.7 1960–2008
56462 Jiulong 101.50 29.00 2,993.7 1952–2008
The lower reaches of the Yalong River
56474 Mianning 102.02 28.55 1,777.9 1957–2008
56571 Xichang 102.27 27.90 1,592.4 1951–2008
594 S. Wang, X. Zhang

Table 2 Statistics for temperature series for the period of 1961–2008 in the JRB

Time Mean (°C) Variance Standard Coefficient Coefficient Maximum Minimum Range (°C)
deviation of skew of kurtosis value (°C) value (°C)

Spring 11.24 0.33 0.57 0.17 −0.20 12.69 9.88 2.80

Summer 17.02 0.17 0.41 0.31 1.15 18.25 16.11 2.15
Autumn 10.24 0.31 0.56 −0.15 −1.03 11.15 9.24 1.91
Winter 2.14 0.61 0.78 −0.28 0.09 3.79 0.06 3.74
Annual 10.16 0.16 0.40 0.40 −0.52 11.17 9.52 1.65

China from the upper reaches of the Yalong River in the first
phase according to the Western Line of the SNWTP. Speeding
up the development of the JRB and realizing electricity trans-
mission from west to east are the strategic choice for the
primary energy sources equilibrium in the early 21st century
in China. Finally, the JRB also contributes to irrigation, water
supply, flood control, wood drift and tourism. Overall, the
JRB plays a very important role in regional and national
economic development.
3 Data
The temperature data used in this study are obtained from
the National Meteorological Observatory (NMO) stations in
the JRB administrated by the China Meteorological Admin-
istration (CMA), which have been checked by primary
quality control. Among 88 meteorological stations in or
around the JRB, 30 of them that have continuous data series
from 1961 to 2008 were selected including 22 stations in the
Jinsha River and eight stations in the Yalong River (Table 1
and Fig. 2). The mean annual and seasonal temperature time
series were constructed according to monthly observations.
Each year was divided into four seasons, namely, spring
(March to May), summer (June to August), autumn
(September to November) and winter (December through
February the following year). For the time series of each
season, the data of mean temperature is the average of
3 months’ value. The information of meteorological stations
used in the JRB in this study is listed in Table 1, and their
spatial distribution is shown in Fig. 2.
4 Methodology
To identify the trend in climatic variables, the Mann–
Kendall (MK) test has been employed in previous stud-
ies (Vijay and Sharad 2010; Kendall 1975; Mann 1945).
The rank-based nonparametric MK test has been com-
monly used to assess the significance of monotonic
trends in hydrometeorological time series such as water
quality, runoff, temperature and precipitation in different
regions across the world (Hirsch et al. 1982; Lettenmaier et
al. 1994; Gan 1998; Lins and Slack 1999; Fu et al. 2004; Xu
et al. 2007a, b; Hong et al. 2008; Jaagus 2006; Donald
2008; Manfred and Attia 2005; Wang 2009; Zhang and
Du 2008).
The MK test (Kendall 1975; Mann 1945) was used to
trend test in this study. There are two test statistics (Hirsch et
al. 1982; Gan 1998; Sen 1968), namely, the trend estimator
(Z) and magnitude of the trend slope (β).
A positive (negative) value of Z indicates an upward (down-
ward) monotone trend for the test time series. The time series
shows a significant trend at a particular significance level α if

Fig. 3 Temporal distribution of 20.0

mean monthly, seasonal and
annual temperatures in the JRB
16.0
Mean temperature ( )

12.0

8.0

4.0

0.0
M G
SP C.
B.

G.

TU R

AN ER

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N
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AY
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R.

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N

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AR
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SU I N

AU ME
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SE
JU

DE
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OC
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AU

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Trend analysis for temperature in the Jinsha River Basin 595

the absolute value of Z is greater than z1 a=2 where z1 a=2 is Table 3 Decadal variations of mean annual and seasonal temperatures
in the JRB (°C)
obtained from the standard normal cumulative distribution
tables (Gan 1998; Zongxue et al. 2010; Fu et al. 2009). Time 1961– 1970– 1980– 1990– 2000–
Linear trend analysis (Chen et al. 2006) as well as the 1969 1979 1989 1999 2008
MK test is applied for the detection of trends in temperature
Spring 11.2483 11.1412 11.0814 11.3213 11.4358
time series in this study. In addition, the Sequential Version
Summer 16.8007 16.8384 17.0980 17.0483 17.3113
Mann–Kendall (SVMK) test called by Goossens and Berger
Autumn 10.0572 10.0054 10.1564 10.3094 10.6981
(1986) can examine the occurrence of abrupt changes. For
Winter 1.6814 1.9347 2.0980 2.0661 2.9597
example, Mehment et al. (1995) used the SVMK test to
Annual 9.9560 9.9794 10.0911 10.2058 10.5889
analyze the effects of urbanization on climate of Istanbul
and Ankara. The detailed theories of the SVMK test can be
referred to in the studies of Mann (1945), Wei (1999),
Sneyers (1990), Goossens and Berger (1986) and Mehment with the increase of era, especially in winter and then in
et al. (1995). In this study, the SVMK test was used to autumn. The largest increase in amount of temperature oc-
analyze abrupt climatic change for temperature. curred in the period of 2000–2008. For example, the mean
temperature in winter increases from 2.0661°C (1990–1999)
to 2.9597°C (2000–2008). The annual temperature in the
period of 2000–2008 is higher, about 0.3831°C than that in
5 Results and discussion
the 1990s. The result of jump test by using the SVMK test
indicates that significant jumps around 1997 did occur in the
5.1 General characteristics of temperature in the JRB
mean annual temperature time series. Further analysis shows
the mean annual temperature is 10.08°C during 1961–1996,
The basic statistics for mean annual and seasonal time series
while it is 10.62°C during 1998–2008, and the mean temper-
from 1961 to 2008 in the JRB including average, variance,
ature is 9.61°C in 1997.
standard deviation, coefficient of skew, coefficient of kurto-
sis, maxima, minima and range (the difference between
5.3 Spatial variations of temperature in the JRB
maximum temperature and minimum temperature) are listed
in Table 2. The mean annual temperature is 10.16°C in the
Figure 4 shows the spatial distribution of mean annual and
JRB. If one examines the amount of mean temperature in
seasonal temperatures over 30 meteorological stations in the
different seasons, it is evident that the high temperature
JRB. The mean annual temperature decreases gradually
period is dominant in summer (Fig. 3). In summer, the mean
from the lower reaches to the upper reaches and headwater.
temperature (17.02°C) is the highest, but its temperature
The mean annual temperature in the middle reaches and the
variation is small. By contrast, the winter season has the
lower reaches is obviously higher than that in the upper
lowest mean temperature (2.14°C) but the largest change range
reaches and headwater, and the mean annual temperature
(3.74°C). In addition, it clearly reveals that the mean annual
in the headwater is always below 0°. The high value area of
temperature has increased steadily since 1961 and reached to
temperature is located in the gorge district between Yunnan-
the peak in the middle 2000s. Two distinct regimes emerged in
Guizhou Plateau and Hengduan Mountains and also the
the mean annual and seasonal temperature time series, i.e., a
transitional zone from Tibetan Plateau to Sichuan Basin
low temperature regime from 1961 to the middle of 1990s and
and the joint of Jinsha River and Yalong River. The first
a high temperature regime from the late 1990s to 2008.
four highest mean annual temperature stations are Yuanmou
(21.63°C), Huaping (19.70°C), Ningnan (19.14°C) and
5.2 Interdecadal variations of temperature in the JRB Binchuan(18.10°C), which is much higher than that of
entire basin (10.16°C). The low value area of temperature
In order to study the decadal variation of annual and sea- is located in the headwater and upper reaches such as
sonal temperatures, the mean annual and seasonal temper- Wudaoliang(−5.36°C), Tuotuohe (−4.01°C), Qumalai
atures for each decade (1961–1969, 1970–1979, 1980– (−2.17°C), Qingshuihe (−4.65°C) and Shiqu et al. (−0.78°C).
1989, 1990–1999 and 2000–2008) were calculated. The The mean seasonal temperatures have similar spatial distribu-
results were shown in Table 3. tion as annual temperature.
According to Tables 2 and 3, the mean annual temperature
in 1990s or the early 21st century (2000–2008) is significantly 5.4 Trends of temperature in the JRB
higher than the whole series (1961–2008) average. Table 3
shows that the mean annual and seasonal temperatures have The results of the MK test for temperature in the JRB are
obvious interdecadal changes, which are increased obviously shown in Fig. 5. The climate of the JRB is warming during the
596 S. Wang, X. Zhang

Fig. 4 Spatial distribution of mean seasonal and annual temperatures in the JRB (°C)

last 48 years. The mean annual and seasonal temperature time
series show an increasing trend being statistically significant
at the α00.05 level, and the trends in summer, autumn, winter
and annual series are significant at the α00.01 level. The
mean annual temperatures have increased by 0.0158°C/year.
On the seasonal scale, the magnitudes of trend for
spring, summer, autumn and winter are 0.0143°C/year,
0.0120°C/year, 0.0179°C/year and 0.0270°C/year, respectively.
The largest magnitudes of the increase in temperature occurred
in winter, which is almost twice the magnitude of the annual
increase (Fig. 5).
There are more meteorological stations with increasing
trends and statistically significant increasing trends than
those with decreasing and statistically significant decreasing
Trend analysis for temperature in the Jinsha River Basin 597

Fig. 5 MK test statistics Z 4.0

and magnitudes of trend β z β
(°C/100 years) in the JRB 3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
Spring Summer Autumn Winter Annual

trends in the JRB. Twenty-six out of 30 stations exhibited an
increasing annual temperature trend and 16 of them were
statistically significant at the level of α00.05. By contrast,
four out of 30 stations exhibited an decreasing annual tem-
perature trend and only three of them were statistically
significant at the level of α00.05 (Table 4). The percentage
of stations with increasing trend for the annual series goes to
86.67%, and 61.54% of them are statistically significant at
the level of α00.05. On the seasonal scale, there are more
than 70% of the stations with increasing trend; especially,
the percentage goes to 90% for winter series (Table 4). The
results are consistent with previous analyses on the MK test
statistics Z and magnitudes of trend β. The observation
stations mainly exhibited increasing trends, which may re-
sult in temperature increasing in the entire basin for the
1961–2008 periods in the JRB.
Spatial distribution of the MK test trends for mean annual
and seasonal temperature time series are shown in Fig. 6.
For mean annual temperature series, the increasing trends in
the headwater and upper reaches are more dominant than
those in the middle and lower reaches. For example, nine
out of ten stations in the headwater and upper reaches
exhibited statistically significant increasing trends at the
level of α00.01. The stations with decreasing trend were
concentrated in the high temperature area, which were also
located in the middle reaches. The top three highest mean
annual temperature stations (such as Yuanmou, Huaping and
Ningnan) showed statistically significant decreasing trends at
the level of α00.05, and the decreasing trend for Yuanmou is
statistically significant at the level of α00.01. The seasonal
trends of temperatures have similar spatial distribution as the
trends of annual temperature, and the increasing trend in
winter is more dominant than those in the other three seasons.
The spatial distributions of mean annual and seasonal
temperature trend magnitudes for stations are given in
Fig. 7. For mean annual temperature time series, the greater
variation range of trend magnitude mainly occurred in two
areas, i.e., the lower temperature area and the higher tem-
perature area (Fig. 7). For example, the mean annual tem-
perature experienced the largest increasing trend in the
headwater and upper reaches, which were also the lower
temperature areas of the JRB, and the magnitude in this area
could reach as high as 0.0337°C/year, which is more than
treble of the basin average. On the other hand, in the higher
temperature area, Yuanmou with −0.0207°C/year had the
largest magnitude of the decrease, while Ningnan
with −0.0105°C/year and Huaping −0.0089°C/year followed,
respectively. All seasons have almost identical spatial distri-
butions of magnitude for the increase of temperature, except
that the magnitude in winter is much greater than other

Table 4 Number of stations with trend test for mean temperature in the periods 1961–2008 in the JRB by using the MK test

Time Z>0 Increasing trend (α00.05) Z<0 Decreasing trend (α00.05)

Number of stations Percentage Number of stations Percentage Number of stations Percentage Number of stations Percentage

Spring 21 70.00% 9 30.00% 9 30.00% 3 10.00%

Summer 23 76.67% 16 53.33% 7 23.33% 3 10.00%
Autumn 25 83.33% 12 40.00% 5 16.67% 0 0
Winter 27 90.00% 21 70.00% 3 10.00% 1 3.33%
Annual 26 86.67% 16 53.33% 4 13.33% 3 10.00%
598
Fig. 6 Trend results for the mean annual and seasonal temperatures for
stations by using the MK test (unfilled triangle increasing trend, filled
triangle statistically significant increasing trend at the level of α00.05;
seasonal and annual values. Spring and summer seasons
have relatively larger magnitudes of decrease (Fig. 7).
The maximum or minimum of trend magnitude always
occurred in the headwater and upper reaches or the
higher temperature area in the JRB. In summary, the
largest increase in magnitude occurred in the low tem-
perature area, and the largest decrease in magnitude
occurred in the high temperature area (Table 5).
S. Wang, X. Zhang
unfilled inverted triangle decreasing trend, filled inverted triangle
statistically significant decreasing trend at the level of α00.05)
5.5 Trends of extreme temperature in the JRB
On the basis of the observed data during 1961–2008 in the
JRB, the mean annual maximum temperature was 23.16°C in
Yuanmou in 1960, and the mean annual minimum tempera-
ture was −7.28°C in Tuotuohe in 1985. The seasonal extreme
temperature was then investigated. The spring maximum tem-
perature was 26.27°C in Yuanmou in 1958, and its minimum
Trend analysis for temperature in the Jinsha River Basin 599

Fig. 7 Spatial distributions of mean annual and seasonal temperature trend magnitudes in the JRB (°C/year)

temperature was −7.10°C in Wudaoliang in 1983. The sum-
mer maximum temperature was 28.30°C in Yibin in 2006, and
its minimum temperature was 2.93°C in Wudaoliang in 1976.
The autumn maximum temperature was 22.80°C in Yuanmou
in 1960, and its minimum temperature was −12.17°C in
Tuotuohe in 1985. The winter maximum temperature was
17.30°C in Yuanmou in 1960, and its minimum temperature
was −26.17°C in Tuotuohe in 1985.
In order to clearly identify the trend changes of temper-
ature in the JRB, the annual and seasonal extreme
600 S. Wang, X. Zhang

Table 5 Extreme values of trend magnitude over the 30 meteorolog- is 0.1 for the summer series). The largest trend magni-
ical stations in the JRB
tude of the range series occurred in winter decreasing
Time series βmax Station of βmax βmin Station of βmin by 0.0563°C/year, while the smallest trend magnitude of
(°C/year) (°C/year) the range series occurred in summer decreasing by
0.0156°C/year. For annual, summer, autumn and winter
Spring 0.0285 Qumalai −0.0400 Ningnan
temperatures, the increasing magnitude of minimum
Summer 0.0277 Yushu −0.0205 Yuanmou
temperature is significantly greater than the decreasing
Autumn 0.0365 Xianggelila −0.0093 Yuanmou
magnitude of maximum temperature. The linear analysis
Winter 0.0469 Xianggelila −0.0175 Yuanmou
results are consistent with previous results of the MK test.
Annual 0.0337 Xianggelila −0.0207 Yuanmou

5.6 Trends of temperature in the Jinsha River and Yalong

temperature series including maximum, minimum and the
range time series are tested by the MK test. The results were
shown in Table 6.
For maximum temperature time series, the decreasing
trends are mainly characterized. Summer is the only season
showing a slight and insignificant increasing trend, and the
annual and other three seasonal series exhibited a decreasing
trend. The annual series and spring series exhibited a statis-
tically significant decreasing trend at the level of α00.01,
and the winter series exhibited a statistically significant
decreasing trend at the level of α00.1. The magnitude of
decreasing trend for annual maximum temperature time
series is −0.02°C/year. The largest magnitude of decrease
for the maximum temperature time series occurred in spring,
followed by winter and autumn, respectively.
All the time series showed a statistically significant in-
creasing trend at the level of α00.05 for the minimum
temperature time series, and the order from small to large
for seasonal trend magnitude were winter, summer, autumn
and spring. The annual increasing trend magnitude for the
minimum temperature time series is 0.0288°C/year.
The increasing trend of minimum temperature and de-
creasing trend of maximum temperature could result in a
decreasing trend for the range series, and the decreasing
trend for the annual and seasonal series, except summer
series, was statistically significant at the level of α00.01(it
River
Since the Jinsha River and Yalong River formed the JRB, it is
of interest to analyze the trend test for Jinsha River and Yalong
River by using the MK test and linear trend analysis. All
temperature time series both in the Jinsha River and in the
Yalong River exhibited an increasing trend (Tables 7 and 8).
In view of temporal and spatial distributions, a common
feature showed up. Specifically, the increasing trends in win-
ter (or in headwater and upper reaches) seem more dominant
than the other three seasons (or in middle and lower reaches),
which is consistent with those in the JRB. For example, the
largest increasing trend magnitude (0.0360°C/year) occurred
in winter in headwater for the Jinsha River, and it
(0.0396°C/year) occurred in winter in upper reaches for
the Yalong River (Tables 7 and 8). The results, by using
linear trend analysis, further confirmed the previous spatial
distribution characteristic.
The increasing trends in the Jinsha River are more dominant
than those in the JRB and Yalong River. The mean annual
temperatures have increased during the last 48 years by
0.0191°C/year, 0.0158°C/year and 0.0146°C/year for the Jin-
sha River, JRB and Yalong River, respectively (Fig. 5, Tables 7
and 8). Among the Jinsha River, Yalong River and JRB, the
Jinsha River shows the largest MK test Z statistics and trend
magnitude β, while the Yalong River shows the smallest MK

Table 6 MK test statistics Z and magnitude of trend β (°C/year) for extreme value series from 1961 to 2008 in the JRB

Series Spring Summer Autumn Winter Annual

Z β Z β Z β Z β Z β

MAXT −4.1152*** −0.0330 0.7910 0.0028 −0.7022 −0.0064 −1.9465* −0.0154 −3.8574*** −0.0200
**
MINT 2.0531 0.0157 3.3863*** 0.0248 2.3376** 0.0236 2.5331** 0.0371 4.4707*** 0.0288
Range −4.7284*** −0.0527 −1.8932* −0.0156 −3.5374*** −0.0385 −3.9018*** −0.0563 −6.1950*** −0.0493

Positive values indicate increasing trend and negative values indicate decreasing trend
MAXT maximum temperature, MINT minimum temperature
*
Trend is significant at the α00.1 level
**
Trend is significant at the α00.05 level
***
Trend is significant at the α00.01 level
Trend analysis for temperature in the Jinsha River Basin 601

Table 7 MK test statistics Z and magnitude of trend β (°C/year) from 1961 to 2008 in the Jinsha River

Time Headwater Upper reaches Middle reaches Lower reaches Jinsha River

Z β Z β Z β Z β Z β

Spring 2.8800*** 0.0240 3.1375*** 0.0184 0.7466 0.0053 1.5199 0.0163 2.6220*** 0.0168
***
Summer 4.0090 0.0290 2.7375*** 0.0129 1.0488 0.0047 2.0531** 0.0101 3.8841*** 0.0143
Autumn 3.8310*** 0.0360 1.9554* 0.0145 1.7509* 0.0106 3.0842*** 0.0195 3.5108*** 0.0222
Winter 3.1550*** 0.0360 4.4973*** 0.0353 2.9508*** 0.0235 1.4310 0.0114 3.3863*** 0.0286
Annual 5.0480*** 0.0330 4.3196*** 0.0206 2.3464** 0.0095 2.7286*** 0.0144 4.2396*** 0.0191

Positive values indicate increasing trend and negative values indicate decreasing trend
*
Trend is significant at the α00.1 level
**
Trend is significant at the α00.05 level
***
Trend is significant at the α00.01 level

test Z statistics and trend magnitude β. The linear analysis also
illustrates this point for mean annual temperature.
6 Conclusions
The aim of this work was to study temperature trend in the
JRB and its spatial distribution. The application was led using
monthly temperature from 30 meteorological stations during
the period 1961–2008. These meteorological stations are quite
regularly distributed over the JRB. Available data were aggre-
gated to obtain mean annual and seasonal temperatures, so the
trend analyses applying the MK test and linear trend analysis
were carried out for each historical series.
The results of this study indicate a broad general pattern
of warming temperatures during 1961–2008 in the JRB.
Both mean annual and seasonal temperatures experienced
a significant increasing trend in the JRB. Twenty-six out of
30 meteorological stations exhibited an increasing trend and
16 of them were statistically significant at the level of α0
0.05, while four out of 30 meteorological stations exhibited
a decreasing trend and only three of them were statistically
significant at the level of α00.05 for mean annual temperature.
On the seasonal scale, the increasing trends in winter seem
more significant than those in the other three seasons, and 27
out of 30 meteorological stations exhibited an increasing trend
and 21 of them were statistically significant at the level of α0
0.05. The greatest magnitudes of the increase in temperature
also occurred in winter, which is almost twice as the magnitude
of the annual increase. The smallest magnitude of the increase
in temperature occurred in summer. As a whole, the increasing
trends in the mainstream are more significant than those in the
entire basin and tributary in the JRB.
The results of this study show that high-elevation climate
in the region such as the headwater and upper reaches of the
JRB in this paper, may be a warming to a greater extent than
climate at lower elevations. A few stations in the JRB with
decreasing trends also occurred in the lower elevations.
The increasing trend of minimum temperature and decreas-
ing trend of maximum temperature could result in a decreasing
trend for the range series. For annual and seasonal (except
spring) temperatures, the increasing magnitude of minimum

Table 8 MK test statistics Z and magnitude of trend β (°C/year) from 1961 to 2008 in the Yalong River

Time Upper reaches Middle reaches Lower reaches Yalong River

Z β Z β Z β Z β

Spring 2.3731** 0.0191 0.9066 0.0059 0.5777 0.0052 0.7644 0.0057

Summer 3.3952*** 0.0246 1.7687* 0.0096 0.8621 0.0037 2.2487** 0.0116
Autumn 2.8531*** 0.026 1.4132 0.0102 1.9109* 0.0127 1.8309* 0.0125
Winter 2.9153*** 0.0396 3.7596*** 0.0312 2.0887** 0.0184 3.3152*** 0.0296
Annual 4.2218*** 0.0292 2.8353*** 0.0131 1.8309* 0.0083 2.5153** 0.0146

Positive values indicate increasing trend and negative values indicate decreasing trend
*
Trend is significant at the α00.1 level
**
Trend is significant at the α00.05 level
***
Trend is significant at the α00.01 level
602
temperature is significantly greater than the decreasing magni-
tude of maximum temperature. The largest trend magnitude of
range series occurred in winter decreasing by 0.0563°C/year,
while the smallest trend magnitude of range series occurred in
summer decreasing by 0.0156°C/year.
Changes in temperature will have significant impacts on
the river flow. Warming advances glacier retreat. River flow
tends to increase because of more glacial meltwater supply
in the earlier stage. Studies show that the mean annual
runoff in the Zhimenda hydrometric station located in the
headwater and Shigu hydrometric station located in the
upper reaches have increased by 0.44 m 3 /s/year and
0.29 m3/s/year (Chen et al. 2010) during the last 50 years
in the Jinsha River, respectively. However, as glaciers con-
tinuously retreat, the amount of glacial meltwater would
decrease at some stage, which would cause social and envi-
ronmental problems such as drying up of lakes and reduc-
tion of river flow. Analyzing the impacts of temperature
change on water resources in the JRB is urgently necessary.
The results of this study would be helpful for future plan-
ning and management of water resources of the JRB, espe-
cially under the background of global warming.
Acknowledgments The paper was written with funding from the
Institute of Plateau Meteorology of China Meteorological Administration
(BROP201103, BROP201022 and BROP200907), the National Natural
Science Foundation of China (41075066) and China Meteorological
Administration (CCFS-09-19). The opinions expressed here are those of
the author and not those of other individuals or organizations. The
constructive comments and suggestions from the editor and anonymous
reviewers, which resulted in a significant improvement of the manuscript,
are gratefully appreciated.
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