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02 Estimating Costs and Benefits
02 Estimating Costs and Benefits
Benefits
Project Financial Management
Ata ul Musawir
Outline
1. Types of Costs
3. Estimating Models
• Mixed costs (or semi-variable costs) are those that are partially
fixed and partially variable (e.g. salespersons’ salaries, vehicle
operations, electricity bill, landline bill, etc.).
• Some mixed costs are fixed over a certain range of output but become
variable if that range is exceeded (e.g. staff overtime charges, mobile phone
packages, any arrangement where a ‘flat’ rate is charged up to a certain
number of units and then charged on per unit basis on further use).
• Some mixed costs are variable over a certain range of output but become
fixed if that range is exceeded (e.g. software subscriptions, any arrangement
where per unit charges apply until a ‘cap’ is reached, after which point
additional units become free of charge).
1. Types of Costs
• Step-wise costs/step-variable costs are those that are fixed
over a certain range of production/sales. If the range is
exceeded, then there is a spike in the costs (e.g. factory
supervisor salaries, servers at a restaurant, cost of
equipment & vehicles, etc.).
• Average cost is the total cost (fixed, marginal, mixed, stepwise, etc.)
divided by some number of units (may be over time, over production
units, for a specific cost category such as fuel expenses, etc.).
1. Types of Costs
• Sunk costs are those already spent as a result of a past decision.
• For example:
• Resources spent conducting a feasibility study is sunk. It should not be considered
when deciding whether or not to proceed.
• Costs already spent in a failing project are sunk (but future costs are not).
• Non-refundable fees paid for university admission are sunk.
Sunk Cost Fallacy and the Escalation of Commitment in the Concorde project
1. Types of Costs: Activity
• Determining the relevant selling price
• For example:
• Using a building for office space means foregoing potential revenue from
renting it out.
• Choosing a job opportunity at Company X means foregoing the next best
opportunity at Company Y.
• Engaging your best staff to one activity/project means losing out on their
services on another activity/project.
1. Types of Costs
• Recurring costs refer to any expense that is known and
anticipated, and that occurs at regular intervals (e.g. annual
maintenance expenses, insurance premiums, interest payments,
rent, etc.).
• Note: The upper limits of +60% for rough order, +20% for semi-
detailed, and +5% for detailed estimates are based on
construction data for plants and infrastructure. Final costs for
software, research and development, and new military weapons,
etc. often have much higher corresponding percentages.
2. Estimating Project Costs
2. Estimating Project Costs
• Estimates for First-time Projects – Estimated parameters can be for
one-of-a-kind or first-run projects. The first time something is done, it
is difficult to estimate costs required to design, produce, and maintain
a product over its life cycle (e.g. the first NASA mission).
• For rough estimates the models are used with rough data,
likewise for detailed design estimates they are used with
detailed data.
• The per unit model does not take into account economies of scale
(the fact that higher quantities usually cost less on a per-unit
basis).
• In project cash flow estimation, only incremental costs matter and sunk costs
(those costs already spent due to past decisions) must be ignored.
• However, opportunity costs of employing fixed assets for the project should be
considered in the cash flow estimates.
• For example, if a currently unused building is needed for a project, we should include
the opportunity cost of lost rent per year (during the life of the project) in our cash
flow analysis. If it will be delivered as part of the project, the cost of the building needs
to be considered as a cash outflow at the start of the project.
Source: https://taxsummaries.pwc.com/pakistan/corporate/deductions#
Also see: https://fbr.gov.pk/Categ/Income-Tax-Brochure/380
Common Depreciation Methods
• Note: residual value and salvage value have the same meaning in this context.
Common Depreciation Methods
• Note: Unlike the double declining method, the depreciation rate does not need to be based on
the straight line rate. However, like the double declining method, depreciation in the last year is
adjusted (Year 5 in this example) so that the book value = the salvage value. If there is no salvage
value, companies may prefer to use straight line depreciation instead or switch to straight line
depreciation during the second half of the asset’s useful life.
Exercises
1. Develop the depreciation schedules for an asset with an initial cost of Rs.
900,000, a useful life of 8 years, and a salvage value of Rs. 84,000:
i. Using the straight line depreciation method
ii. Using the double-declining depreciation method
iii. Using the diminishing balance depreciation method assuming a
depreciation rate of 18%
• Note: An asset’s book value is equal to its cost minus its accumulated
depreciation.
• If the salvage value > book value of the asset at the time of sale or
disposal, then realize a capital gain on sale or disposal of asset.
• Since the capital gain is a source of income, we have to pay tax on the
amount gained.
• If the salvage value < book value of the asset at the time of sale or
disposal, then we realize a capital loss on sale or disposal of asset.
• In this case, we can deduct the loss from our net income, which will reduce
the income tax to be paid (if any).
• In this case, our asset will be fully depreciated and hence will have a
book value of 0 in Year 4. Therefore, the entire salvage value is a capital
gain. Hence, we need to pay tax charges on the disposal in Year 4 as
follows:
• Tax charges on disposal = 16,500 * 0.40 = $6,600
5. Estimating Project Cash Flows
E.g. Asset Expansion
• These data represent the relevant cash flow information that we need to
judge the attractiveness of the project (to be continued…).
5. Estimating Project Cash Flows
E.g. Asset Replacement
• Thus, for an initial cash outflow of $18,000, we are able to replace the
old machine with a new one that is expected to result in net cash flows
of $6,393, $7,549, $5,445, and $4,853 over the next four years.
• These data represent the relevant cash flow information that we need to
judge the attractiveness of the project (to be continued…).
Exercise
• In project cash flow estimation, should the following be ignored,
or added to, or subtracted from the new machine’s purchase
price when estimating initial cash outflow?
a. The market value of the old machine is $500, the old machine has a
remaining useful life, and the investment is a replacement decision.
e. The new machine has a salvage value of $25,000 at the end of its
useful life.