Why does tree diagram work?

A probability tree diagram is used to represent the probability of occurrence of events without

using complicated formulas. It displays all the possible outcomes of an event. The purpose of
a probability tree is that it shows all the possible outcomes of an event and calculates the
probability of these outcomes. A probability tree diagram can either represent a series of
independent events or it can be used to denote conditional probabilities.

Sometimes, if there are sequential steps in an experiment, or repeated trials of the same
experiment, or if there are a number of stages of classification for objects sampled, it is very
useful to represent the probability/information on atree diagram.

We’ve now settled into a routine of solving probability problems using tree diagrams. But
we’ve left a big question unaddressed: mathematical justification behind those funny little
pictures. Why do they work?

The answer involves conditional probabilities. In fact, the probabilities that we’ve been
recording on the edges of tree diagrams are conditional probabilities. For example, consider
the uppermost path in the tree diagram for the hockey team problem, which corresponds to
the outcome WW.
The first edge is labeled ½, which is the probability that the local team wins the first game.
The second edge is labeled ⅔, which is the probability that the local team wins the second
game, given that they won the first a conditional probability! More generally, on each edge of
a tree diagram, we record the probability that the experiment proceeds along that path, given
that it reaches the parent vertex.

So we’ve been using conditional probabilities all along. For example, we concluded that:

Pr[WW]=½.⅔=⅓
The answer goes back to Product rule of conditional probability.
Rule: Conditional probability product rule
Rule2: Event
Pr[E1∩E2]=Pr[E1]⋅Pr[E2∣E1].

Multiplying edge probabilities in a tree diagram amounts to evaluating the right side of this
equation. For example:

Pr[win first game∩win second game]=Pr[win first game]⋅Pr[win second game∣win first
game]=½⋅⅔

So the Conditional Probability Product Rule is the formal justification for multiplying edge
probabilities to get outcome probabilities.

To justify multiplying edge probabilities along a path of length three, we need a rule for three
events:
 Pr[E1∩E2∩E3]=Pr[E1]⋅Pr[E2∣E1]⋅Pr[E3∣E1∩E2].
Example one

Robin has 2 bags. Bag A has 7 balls of which 3 are red and 4 are blue and bag B has 8 balls
of which 5 are red and 3 are blue.

Robin is going to take a ball from each bag, he wants to know what all the possible outcomes
are so he draws a tree diagram:

Notice how for bag A there are two possibilities, either a red ball or a blue ball can be
selected and Robin has put the probability of each choice onto the diagram.

For bag B there are also two possibilities - these are written twice, once for each outcome of
the first choice.

We can choose to take several different routes through the diagram depending on which
outcomes we are interested in.

If we want to know the probability that both balls are red, we take the route that passes
the 37 and the 58. We can use the AND rule to work out the probability of this happening:

P(R+R) = P(R) × P(R) = 3/7× 5/8 = 1556

If we want red first, then blue, P(R+B) = 3/7×3/8=9/56

If we want blue first, then red, P(B+R) = 4/7×5/8=20/56

If we want blue first, then blue, P(B+B)= 4/7×3/8=12/56

What is the probability Robin selects 1 blue ball and 1 red ball?
Solution

There are two ways to select 1 blue and 1 red. P(R+B) or P(B+R) both satisfy the condition.
We can use the OR rule to calculate the probability:

P(1 red and 1 blue) = 9/56+20/56=29/56

Often we use tree diagrams to model conditional probability. This is where there is more than
one outcome and they are not independent – in other words the first outcome affects the
probability of the second.

Note that each path on the tree diagram represents one outcome in the sample space.

Reference
-Eric Lehman, F. Thomson Leighton, & Alberty R. Meyer
Jul 7, 2021
-Mardiana Yusuf
Suzieleez Syrene Abdul Rahim
Leong Kwan Eu
Faculty of Education, University of Malaya, Malaysia
April 8, 2020