Probability is chance of occurrence of an event.

EXAMPLE:1
You are in charge of a construction project and must cancel work whenever it rains. 3 days (not
necessarily concurrent) have been selected to be the days when an expensive crane and operator are to
be rented. At least 50% of the cost of the crane and operator fee must be paid, even if it rains, to reserve
their services. The probability that it rains on a certain day is 0.54 (which is independent of whether it
rained on any other day). What is the probability that it rains all 3 days?

SOLUTION:

We are given that the probability of raining on any given day is 0.54, and we want to find the probability
that it rains on all three selected days. Since the probability of raining on each day is independent of the
others, we can use the multiplication rule of probability to find the probability of all three events
occurring together: P(rain on all 3 days) = P(rain on day 1) * P(rain on day 2) * P(rain on day 3) = 0.54 *
0.54 * 0.54 = 0.157464

Therefore, the probability of it raining on all three selected days is approximately 0.157464 or about
15.75%.

EXAMPLE:2
There are 52 types of culvert-to-reservoir connectors available. A test facility can test up to 5 at a time.
How many different (unordered) groups of size 5 could be tested first at this facility?

SOLUTION:

To find the number of different (unordered) groups of size 5 that can be tested from a set of 52 culvert-
to-reservoir connectors, we can use the formula for combinations: n C r = n! / (r! * (n-r)!) where n is the
total number of items, and r is the number of items we want to choose. In this case, we have: n = 52 (the
total number of culvert-to-reservoir connectors) r = 5 (the number of connectors we want to test at a
time) We can substitute these values into the formula: 52 C 5 = 52! / (5! * (52-5)!)

Now, we need to simplify the expression by calculating the factorials: 52! = 52 x 51 x 50 x ... x 3 x 2 x 1 5!
= 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 (52-5)! = 47 x 46 x 45 x ... x 3 x 2 x 1

We can simplify this expression by cancelling out some of the terms: (52-5)! = 47 x 46 x 45 x ... x 3 x 2 x 1
= 47!

Now, we can substitute these values back into the formula: 52 C 5 = 52! / (5! * (52-5)!)

= (52 x 51 x 50 x 49 x 48 x 47!) / (5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 x 47!)

= (52 x 51 x 50 x 49 x 48) / (5 x 4 x 3

EXAMPLE:3
A geotechnical engineer believes that almost all homes can be built with only a slab for a foundation.
Thus, she believes that each home for which she designs the foundation can be built with a slab with
probability 0.91. If she is designing foundations for a new neighborhood development, what is the
variance of the number of home foundations she will design before she encounters a home for which a
slab cannot be used?
SOLUTION:
Sure, here are the steps to solve the problem without using any statements: Identify the probability of
designing a foundation that can use a slab, which is given as p=0.91. Identify the probability of
encountering a home for which a slab cannot be used, which is given as q=1-p=0.09. Define X as the
number of homes the geotechnical engineer designs foundations for until she encounters a home for
which a slab cannot be used. The mean of a geometric distribution is given by E(X) = 1/p. Calculate the
expected number of homes the geotechnical engineer will design foundations for until she encounters a
home for which a slab cannot be used using E(X) = 1/p. The variance of a geometric distribution is given
by Var(X) = (1-p)/p^2. Calculate the variance of the number of homes the geotechnical engineer will
design foundations for until she encounters a home for which a slab cannot be used using Var(X) = (1-
p)/p^2