Materials Today: Proceedings 45 (2021) 7690–7696

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Impacts of climate change on Moroccan’s groundwater resources: State

of art and development prospects
Naïma EL ASSAOUI a,⇑, Abdelaziz Sadok b, Imane Merimi c
a
Water and Environment Geosciences Laboratory, Center CRNE2DS, Mohammed V University of Rabat, Morocco
b
Mohammedia School of Engineers, Mohamed V University, Rabat, Morocco
c
Laboratory of Applied Analytical Chemistry, Materials and Environment, Mohammed First University of Oujda, Morocco

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The scientific knowledge of processes related to climate change impact on groundwater resources
Available online 17 April 2021 remains insufficient both nationally and internationally. This is due particularly to: the inadequacy of
databases both quantitatively and qualitatively; Insufficient accuracy of predictions by climate models,
Keywords: especially rainfall and their sensitivity to the choice of climate scenarios; Insufficient accuracy of
Water resources methods for estimating groundwater recharge; the difficulty of modelling surface water/groundwater
Groundwater interaction over large areas.
Climate change
The assessment of climate change impacts on groundwater resources requires reliable predictions of
MODFLOW
Modelling
climate variables; a good estimation of groundwater recharge and its spatial and temporal variability;
and the master of hydrodynamic response of the aquifer to different climate change scenarios.
Several research studies have shown that climate change has accentuated negative repercussions on
groundwater resources in Morocco. These studies were using different approaches: experimental, numer-
ical and statistical modelling. Many aquifer problems were investigated regarding: saline intrusion;
water resources quality; recharge, shortage of water reserves. This research works has rarely treating
the different process aspects involved with integrated approach.
Therefore, this paper focuses on the analysis of the effects of climate change on groundwater resources
using a global and systemic approach that would take into account the multidisciplinary nature of the
process: Climatic, hydrological and hydro-geological.
Ó 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the Fourth edition of the
International Conference on Materials & Environmental Science.

1. Introduction vegetation, as well as a reduction in groundwater recharge and

Vulnerability to the effects of climate change in Morocco affects
several strategic sectors: water, agriculture, forests, coastline, etc.
The climate trends observed in recent decades confirm this trend
with a reduction in rainfall varying between 3 and 30% during
the period 1960–2005 [1–4]. Climate forecasts in Morocco, accord-
ing to different scenarios, optimistic or pessimistic, indicate a
downward trend in cumulative annual rainfall varying between
10 and 30% by 2100. Average annual temperatures would increase
over the country as a whole by between 0.5 °C and 1 °C by 2020,
and between 1 °C and 1.5 °C by 2050 and 2080 [1–4]. This climatic
disruption affects the hydrological cycle by directly increasing
evapotranspiration from the water surface and transpiration from
runoff. Similarly, this process affects the trajectories of precipita-
tion both in terms of frequency and intensity, and therefore
directly impacts the storage flows of surface and groundwater.
Other impacts are foreseeable, such as salt intrusion at the level
of coastal aquifers, deterioration of water quality, scarcity of fresh
water, amplification of extreme events (drought and floods), etc.
[5–12].
While it is now accepted that the state of knowledge regarding
the impact of climate change on surface waters has made very sig-
nificant progress, the same is not true for groundwater, where fur-
ther investigation and research is still needed [13–18].
2. Objectives

⇑ Corresponding author. The aim of this research is to develop a global methodology that
E-mail address: n.elassaoui@um5r.ac.ma (N. EL ASSAOUI). can help in planning groundwater in Morocco for middle and

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matpr.2021.03.220
2214-7853/Ó 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the Fourth edition of the International Conference on Materials & Environmental Science.
Naïma EL ASSAOUI, A. Sadok and I. Merimi
long-term horizons by providing: tendency of climate, hydrological
and groundwater parameters; and the interaction between climate
and groundwater dynamics.
The main objective of this paper, is to establish the state of the
art regarding Moroccan’s and international studies of climate
change impact on groundwater resources. Also, the development
of a global methodology to study the impacts of climate change
on groundwater resources in Morocco. It is based on benchmarking
methodologies developed at the international level, and analyzes
its implementation in Morocco.
3. Water resources and climate change in Morocco
Water resources in Morocco are characterized by a continuous
decrease and their irregularity, both spatially and temporally. In
fact, surface water is 51% produced in four watersheds, which
cover only 7.1% of the country’s surface. They are subject to several
natural or anthropogenic constraints. Today there are approxi-
mately 139 large dams mobilizing more than 10 billion m3 per
year out of a mobilizable potential of 13.5 billion m3 per year.
The total volume of water resources that can be mobilized is esti-
mated around 22 billion m3, (80% surface water resources and 20%
groundwater resources) [1].
The hydrological and climatic context of Morocco has been
influenced over the past decades by a very pronounced and often
severe inter-annual climatic variability. This situation has caused
and amplified extreme events (droughts and floods). On the other
hand, flow inputs by runoff and rainfall, to the surface water and
groundwater waters are in continuous decrease. These difficulties
unfortunately continue to grow, and future forecasts of the effects
of climate change on water are worrying for the Maghreb in gen-
eral and for Morocco in particular [1,19].
Groundwater resources in Morocco which constitutes a strate-
gic water resource representing almost 20% of natural hydraulic
potential, with a continuous decline in the stock and a disturbing
variation in the aquifers reaching values exceeding 2 m per year.
According to the Ministry in charge of water [20], the national
groundwater potential is estimated at nearly 4 billion m3 mobiliz-
able per year, with an annual mobilization of about 3.5 billion m3.
This groundwater potential represents nearly 130 aquifers, 98 of
which are superficial and 32 deeps. Part of this 12% of groundwater
is used to meet the needs for drinking and industrial water (AEPI),
i.e. about 500 M m3 per year, with proportions reaching 90% in
rural areas and 40% in urban areas. The very large part of these
water resources 88%, i.e., more than 3.5 billion m3 per year, can
meet the irrigation needs of agricultural areas, and contribute up
to 40% of total water consumption in agriculture by irrigation. This
represents about 450,000 ha irrigated based on groundwater
resources. In addition, they contribute to more than 50% of the eco-
nomic value of irrigated areas.
These groundwater resources take the form of various geologi-
cal configurations: sedimentary basins with water tables and cap-
tive water tables (Souss, Tadla, Haouz, Saiss), karstic limestone
massifs with large sources (Middle Atlas), alluvial valleys with
water tables closely linked to surface flows (Ziz valley, Draa valley).
They participate in supporting the development of certain vital
sectors, which often consume a lot of water, such as agriculture
through irrigation. As a result, we have unfortunately witnessed
during the last two decades, an overexploitation of almost most
of the aquifers, as in the Souss region in the South [20,21]. Indeed,
the rate of mobilization of renewable groundwater resources (ratio
between withdrawal and recharge) is considered high and several
aquifers are overexploited in Morocco [20]. The annual overex-
ploited volume of this groundwater is estimated to be around 1 bil-
lion m3, leading to an almost continuous and widespread drop in
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Materials Today: Proceedings 45 (2021) 7690–7696
the piezometric levels of the aquifers. Groundwater stress in Mor-
occo, defined by the ratio between withdrawals and annual
recharge, is estimated to vary between 20 and 50% [22]. The sector
most affected by water deficit remains agriculture, followed by
AEPI.
This overexploitation of groundwater resources threatens them
by accelerating their shortage and contributing to the degradation
of their quality (salinity, pollution). Consequently, it increases
operating and investment costs. As a result, operators in this field
are therefore confronted with several issues and challenges:
increased water consumption, particularly by pumping for agricul-
tural uses; abuse in terms of use because of the ease of access to
these resources and the difficulties of regulation and control; as
well as the reduction of recharge under the effect of drought and
global warming. Consequently, there is unanimous agreement on
the alarming current situation and the future threats, particularly
due to the adverse effects of climate change.
4. National and international previous research
In this paper, we have considered an exhaustive bibliographical
research to benchmark literature review of scientific papers pub-
lished, focusing on the methodologies and tools used especially
for arid and semi-arid environments. Indeed, the last two decades
have seen the emergence of studies using increasingly complex
methodologies and tools, taking advantage of the development of
conceptual analysis; computer science; databases and calculation
tools.
4.1. International studies
The first research paper on the effects of climate change on
groundwater resources dates back to the 1990s. For example, Vac-
caro [23] studied the impact of future climate variations on aquifer
recharge in the USA, using a climate generator (WGEN), and three
global climate models (GCM). Since then, several works have fol-
lowed attempting to improve predictions related to some impor-
tant aspects, such as the impact of recharge, and the
improvement of climate predictions at regional and local scales.
In relation to aquifer recharge modelling, several direct and
indirect methods have been used depending on the context of
the study in terms of data availability, tools used, etc. [24–30].
There are works based on empirical estimation [25,31], which have
linked the piezometric levels of the aquifer, and recharge, to cli-
matic variables (rainfall and temperature, evapotranspiration) gen-
erally based on the aquifer balance. Other research work has used
hydrological tools such as HELP [32,33], which contains a module
dedicated to recharge estimation (WHI UnSat) [34–36] or the WET-
PASS tool [29,37]; EPIC-GRID [38]; USGS tools: WB, PULSE or
RORA; or SWAT [39].
Other research has attempted to couple climate and hydrogeo-
logical models to analyze the effect of future climate change on
groundwater resources. Most of this work, however, questions
the large errors generated by global climate models (GCMs) and
their impact on the variability of some key parameters such as
recharge [28,40–46]. They generally recommend the use of several
climate models to determine a likely range of variation in climatic
factors such as temperature, rainfall and recharge. Other works
uses more complex climate models called regional climate models
(RCMs), which use smaller mesh sizes and are more detailed in
terms of the physical processes involved. Moreover, the use of
the spatial downscaling technique [46–51] allows a better repre-
sentation of climate variability at the local scale given the improve-
ment observed, but still insufficient, in the results obtained using
this approach [6,9].
Naïma EL ASSAOUI, A. Sadok and I. Merimi
Among the research works that have been pioneering in the
coupling of climatic, hydrological and hydrogeological aspects are
cited for example [34,35,41,45,52,53]. Some research has
attempted to analyze the different sources of error in the process
of numerical modelling of the effects of climate change on ground-
water [41,42,44–46,54–56].
In addition, in recent years we have seen the emergence of
research work that attempts to develop global methodologies that
integrate surface and groundwater. They are based on integrated
tools such as MIKE-SHE [44,57,58], HydroGeoSphere [59], Parflow
[60,61], CVHM [62]. InHM (Integrated Hydrology Model) [63],
OpenGeoSys [64]. These computational resources require signifi-
cant human and financial resources, and are generally used within
the framework of large projects at the level of international scien-
tific cooperation. Many research works have yet used these tools
[44,45,55,61,62,65–67]. Examples of international research that
have developed a context-specific methodology include: in the
USA [68,70,71,72]; in Australia [48,43]; in Canada [34,69]; in Bel-
gium [45,69]. in the UK and Germany [73–75]. On the other hand,
rather exhaustive syntheses of different proposed methodologies
have been discussed by: [65,71,76–84].
Other research has addressed the indirect effects of climate
change, including the demand for water from land plots in the case
of temperature increases, changes in evapotranspiration rates,
increased demand for drinking, industrial and agricultural water,
changes in irrigation techniques, changes in land use
[41,4970,85–87].
The use of models such as MODFLOW FARM PROCESS, allows the
analysis of changes in pumping rate to represent increases in agri-
cultural demand when temperature rises (summer, drought) [62].
Other research has investigated the variation in errors gener-
ated by climate, hydrological and hydrogeological models, as well
as the impact of choices in terms of scenarios, climate models,
etc. Some studies have attempted to prioritize these errors, such
as [42,43,44,48,49,55,56,62,76,82,88]. It emerges that the largest
errors are generally attributed to the choice of the couple: climate
model/greenhouse gas emission scenarios, followed by the calcula-
tion of the recharge.
4.2. National studies
In relation to climatic aspects, the rainfall and temperature
regime has been studied by several researchers, notably
[6,7,9,10,12,89,90]. In relation to studies on the impact of climate
change on water resources and the problems of water resource
management and planning [8,21,91–100]. Other research works
and studies have focused on the climate-surface water resources
relationship, based on climate models (HadCM3, ALADDIN) and
downscaling techniques (SDSM, MM5, ADS) [6–9,94,97,100–104].
Furthermore, research on the effects of climate change on
groundwater resources is very scarce but in development
[105–121].
Almost all of these research papers have considered only one or
two aspects of the problem. Some works have addressed the cli-
matic aspects related to rainfall using statistical technics. Others
deal with the hydrology of watersheds or the impact on a particu-
lar sector such agriculture or on a hydraulic basin using systemic
approach. Few papers have addressed the effect on groundwater
water resources using global approach. More details are discussed
in El Assaoui Thesis [109].
4.3. Synthesis of bibliography
Our state of knowledge of the problem of the effect of climate
change on groundwater resources remains insufficient both
nationally and internationally. This is explained in part by:
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Materials Today: Proceedings 45 (2021) 7690–7696
 The insufficiency of databases, both quantitatively and
qualitatively;
 Insufficient accuracy of predictions by climate models, espe-
cially rainfall, and their sensitivity to the choice of climate
scenarios;
 Inadequate accuracy of methods for estimating groundwater
recharge;
 the difficulty of modelling the interaction of surface water/-
groundwater over large areas.
 Several impacts of climate change on groundwater resources
have been addressed, generally by numerical modelling. These
include: saline intrusion in coastal aquifers; deterioration of
water resource quality; reduction or even shortage of water
reserves; impact of recharge; land use;
 The dependence of groundwater resources on climate change
can be explained by the direct interaction with surface water
resources and the indirect interaction with recharge;
 Assessment of the impacts of climate change on groundwater
resources requires reliable predictions of changes in climatic
variables (temperature, rainfall, evapotranspiration, etc.), as
well as a realistic estimate of groundwater recharge and its spa-
tial and temporal variability, particularly on a seasonal scale;
 Several general (GCM), regional (RCM) or spatial downscaling
climate models have been tested. The latter, despite their com-
plexity and requirements as well as downscaling remain impre-
cise, particularly with respect to precipitation;
 Climate models can be coupled with hydrological models to
estimate recharge. The choice of greenhouse gas emission sce-
narios, and the coupling of these models with a hydrogeological
model allows the simulation of the effects of climate change on
groundwater resources;
 It is recommended to use several climate and hydrological mod-
els to assess the range of variation of important parameters
such as recharge;
 The use of the standard hydrogeological model MODFLOW is
appreciated because of its reputation and reliability;
 The use of integrated models, requires sufficient data, and sub-
stantial financial means;
5. Towards global methodology
Over the last decade, some research works have developed glo-
bal methodologies to study the impact of climate change on
groundwater resources adapted to their own context. The
approach generally chosen is based on feedback from experiences
and research related to their aquifers. This research works can be
categorized into two different approaches:
The first one is based on a ‘‘Top-Down” or cascade coupling,
considering the outputs of the climate model as input for the
hydrological model, and the outputs of the latter as input for the
hydrogeological model [34,69,122].
The second approach considers the outputs of the climate
model as input to an integrated model (surface water/groundwa-
ter), such as MODHMS [123] or MIKE SHE [65]. However, in the
opinion of several researchers, for large aquifer systems, these
tools can generate simulations for both middle and long-term
studies. For this purpose, it is important to better identify the
importance of the different processes involved. This approach
should answer some relevant questions, in particular, the choice:
 conceptual models’ representative of the climatology, hydrol-
ogy and hydrogeology of the aquifer;
 climate change scenarios, setting the greenhouse gas emission
rates, and the targeted short, medium- and long-term horizons;
 climate models to analyze the variability of climate parameters
in the future;
Naïma EL ASSAOUI, A. Sadok and I. Merimi Materials Today: Proceedings 45 (2021) 7690–7696

Fig. 1. Chart of global methodology.

 the method for analyzing groundwater recharge under the ogy and improve the results, or to study other scenarios, or other
effect of variation in climate parameters; variants in terms of management and planning variants of ground-
 objectives in terms of evaluating direct and indirect impacts on water resources;
groundwater resources; The overall methodology proposed can therefore, on the basis of
 the coupled or integrated hydrogeological model developed, its the above, be summarized in eight main steps (Fig. 1), in a sequen-
calibration and validation; tial and iterative approach, which allows flexibility in terms of the
 methods for error analysis in the simulation of the impacts of choice of approach (coupled or integrated), or of the tools to be
climate change on groundwater resources. used. The proposal global methodology to assess climate change
impact on groundwater studies is commonly based on modelling
The previous steps can be integrated into a comprehensive
climate projections, hydrological and groundwater response to
groundwater resources management process, using integrated
those changes. It involves eight steps, in a sequential and iterative
tools that couple the different aspects: climatic, hydrological,
approach, as shown in the Fig. 1. More details are given in
hydrogeological, through a single interface and a single computer
[108,109]. These steps are:
application Several tools exist, and are in continuous improvement,
such as: MIKE SHE [44,57,58], MODHMS [123], ParFlow [60,61],
 Greenhouse emissions scenarios;
HydroGeoSphere [59] and GSFLOW.
 Global climatic parameters variation in the future;
The model sensitivity analysis with respect to each climate
 Regional climatic parameters variation in the future;
change scenario; to the choice of climate, hydrological and hydro-
 Local variation of climatic parameters in the future;
geological models; to the choice of scenarios, etc., is also carried
 Local aquifer’s recharge variation in the future;
out. This approach allows the evaluation of the variation of key
 Aquifer’s groundwater flow modelling;
parameters such as groundwater stock, recharge, piezometric
 Numerical modelling of climate change impacts on
levels, etc.
groundwater;
The development of an integrated climatic-hydrological-hydro
 Analysis of simulation errors;
geological model, at the local scale, to establish, for example, sam-
pling maps at the level of wells and boreholes, the effect of artificial
recharge etc. . .; 6. Conclusion
Finally, it should be remembered that this ‘‘top-down” process
is iterative. Therefore, water resources operators can intervene at The Impact of climate change on groundwater resources
any stage, according to their objectives, to readjust the methodol- requires multidisciplinary research approach involving different
7693
Naïma EL ASSAOUI, A. Sadok and I. Merimi
aspects (climatology, hydrology, hydrogeology, earth Sciences,
socio economy etc.). Two methodologies can be considered, the
first one is based on a coupling cascading process, from top to
down, beginning with climate model, passing by hydrological
and finishing by groundwater flow model. The second approach
could be based on coupling climate model with a fully integrated
model (hydrological/hydrogeological). For Moroccan’s studies of
climate change impact on groundwater we recommend to con-
tinue improving climate aspects by developing RCM model like
Aladin- Climat and MOSAIC and by using statistical downscaling
with SPSM tool or dynamic downscaling with MM5 tool. The
recharge variation can be improved by developing a hydrologic
model like HELP or HMS. Other possibility could be the use of fully
linked models like MODHMS or USGS tool: GSFLOW especially
when participating to international projects of cooperation. There-
fore, MODFLOW/GMS will continue to be the basic Moroccan’s tool
for hydro geological modelling due to its international notoriety
and flexibility and also to its possibility of linking with other mod-
els like HMS, WEAP, and SWAT.
7. Authors contribution statements
Prof. Naïma EL ASSAOUI has provided his expertise through his
doctoral research on the impact of climate change on groundwater
resources. She wrote the part related to the integrated methodol-
ogy and contributed to the manuscript. She and Prof. Abdelaziz
SADOK synthesized the research work at the national level on
the impact of climate change on groundwater and surface water
resources and contributed to the manuscript. Prof. Naïma EL
ASSAOUI and Prof. Imane MERIMI synthesized the work at the
international level related to the theme and contributed to the
writing of the manuscript. Authors contributed to the final version
of the manuscript and discussed and elaborated the conclusion and
perspectives of this research. They provided feedback on the
remarks and suggestions of the Journal and contributed to the
elaboration of the manuscript. Also Prof. Naïma EL ASSAOUI
planned, supervised the work, and discussed the results obtained.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing finan-
cial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared
to influence the work reported in this paper.
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