Make coal history Celebrate the decline of coal ROUND THE World the moodis shifting. XiJinping hasadopt- ed a target to cut China's net carbon emissions to zero by 2060. Under Joe Biden, America will sejoin the Paris agreement, ‘which it adopted five years ago. In the financial markets clean- ‘energy firms are all the rage. This month Tesla will join the sep 500 share index—as one its largest members. Remarkably, inarealm wherewordsarecheap, therehas been, action, too. In America and Furope the consumption of coal, the largest source of greenhouse gases, has fallen by 34%since 2009. ‘The International Energy Agency, an intergovernmental body, reckons that global use will never surpass its pre-covid peak. Yet coal still accounts for around 27% of the raw energy used. to power everything from cars to electric grids. Unlike natural gas and oil, itis concentrated carbon, and thus itaccounts fora staggering 39% of annual emissions of CO; from fossil fuels (see Briefing). Ifglobal emissions are to fall far enough, fastenough, the task now is to double down on the West's success and repeat itin Asia. Itwill notbeeasy. Coal came of age in the Industrial Revolution, In the rich ‘world its usein furnaces and boilers peaked in the1930s and fad- ‘ed as cleaner fuels became available. Consumption in the West has recently collapsed. In Britain the last coal-fired power plants ‘could close as soon as 2022. Peabody Energy, a big American coal miner, has warned that it may go bankrupt for the second time in five years. Although carbon prices accelerated the shift in Europe, the Trump administration has fa- voured America’s coal industry with deregula- tion and political support—and still it has de- clined. One reason is competition from cheap natural gas produced in America by fracking ‘Taxcredits and subsidieshave prompted renew- ables to scale up, which has in turn helped drive down their costs. Solar farmsand onshore wind are now'the cheapestsource of new electricity for at least two-thirds of the world’s popula- n, says BloombergneF, a data group. As coal faces cleaner ri- vals and the prospectof more regulation, banks and investors are turning away, raising coal’s cost of capital. ‘This isa victory, but only a partial one. Inthe past decade, as, Europe has turned against coal, consumption in Asia has grown bya quarter. The continent naw accounts for 77% ofall coal use. China alone burns more than two-thirds ofthat, followed by In- dia. Coal dominates in some medium-sized, fast-growing econ- mies, including indonesia and Vietnam, Ifthe aimisto limit global temperature risesto2°C above pre- industrial levels, it is no good waiting for Asia's appetite for coal tofade. New plants arestill being built. Many completed ones are ‘not yet fully utilised and still have decades of life in them. Noris it enough to expect a solution from “clean coal” technologies, which aim to capture and store emissions as they are released. ‘They may help deal with pollution from industrial uses, such as steelmaking, but they arc too expensive for power generation. Hence Asia needs new policies to kick its coal habit, and soon, The goal should be to stop new coal-fired power plants being built and to retire existing ones. Some countries have taken a Leaders 13 rrich Western countries. Asia must be next firststep, byimposing new targetsand bans. The Philippines has declared a moratorium on new plants; Japanand Bangladesh are slowing construction, tao, China's new five-year-plan, which will be published next year, may limit coal use. It should set its capat current levels, so that the declinecan start immediately. Iftargetsare tobe credible, Asian countries musttackle deep- er problems. The strategy that worked in Europe and America ‘will get them only so far, because the mining firms, power sta- tions, equipment-makers and the banks that finance them are often state-controlled. Market forces and carbon taxes, which use price signals to change incentives, are therefore less effec- tive. And coal politics is treacherous. The coal economy forms a nexus of employment, debt, fx revenues and exports. China has ‘used its Belt and Road Initiative to sell both mining machinery ‘and power plants. Across the region, local governments depend, oncoal for revenues. Many will defend it ferociously. ‘Onestep in fighting regional lobbiesis to redesign power sys- tems so that renewables can compete fairly and incentives work. Most renewables provide only intermittent power, because the ‘weather is changeable, National smart grids can mitigate this by connecting different regions. Too many of asia's electricity sys- tems muffle market signals because they are locked into legacy long-term supply contracts with coal firms, and because they are riddled with opaque subsidies and price caps. Removing these so that markets and taxes work better will et renewable power undercut coal. ‘The other step is to compensate losers. The lesson from destitute mining towns in south ‘Wales and West Virginia is that job losses store up political tensions. Coal India, the national mining colossus, has 270,000 workers, From Shanxi province in Chinato Jharkhand in India, local governments will need fiscal transfers to help rebalance their economies. Banks may need to be recapitalised: China's statelenders may have up to Sitrn at stake. Europe and America have shown that King Coal can be de- throned, but they cannot be bystanders as Asia works to com- plete the revolution, Coal powered the West's development. In 2019 coal consumption per person in Indiawas less than half that in America. Itis in Asia's long-term interests to topple coal, but the short-term political and economic costs are large enough ‘hataction may be tooslow. If politicians in Europeand America are serious about fighting global warming, they must work hard- er to depress coal elsewhere, That includes honouring prior promises to help developing countries deal with climate change. Ultimately, though, the responsibility will lie with Asia itself. ‘And the good news is that itis overwhelmingly in Asia's interest to do so, Its people, infrastructure and agriculture are danger- ously exposed to the droughts, flooding, storms and rising sea levels caused by climate change. A growing middle class yearns for their governments to clean up Asia's choking metropolises. ‘And renewable energy offers a path to cheaper power, generated athome, as well asa source of industrial employmentand inno- vation. Coal's days are numbered. The sooner itis consigned to ‘museums and historybooks, the better.