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    Model Improvement Ideas

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    Petar
    The document discusses various ways to improve forecasting models for customers with occasional low forecasting period accuracy. It suggests: 1. Modeling these customers separately starting with naive models for baseline and comparing to similar customers based on channel, size or cluster. 2. Creating standard reports that summarize customers' forecasting results like weekly errors by class/size and percentage of periods with zero sales that were forecasted or not forecasted. 3. Exploring feature selection techniques like Boruta and Optuna to select the most important features, and using SHAP to evaluate feature importance to better leverage different data sources for different customers.

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    Model Improvement Ideas

    Uploaded by

    Petar
    9 views1 page
    The document discusses various ways to improve forecasting models for customers with occasional low forecasting period accuracy. It suggests: 1. Modeling these customers separately starting with naive models for baseline and comparing to similar customers based on channel, size or cluster. 2. Creating standard reports that summarize customers' forecasting results like weekly errors by class/size and percentage of periods with zero sales that were forecasted or not forecasted. 3. Exploring feature selection techniques like Boruta and Optuna to select the most important features, and using SHAP to evaluate feature importance to better leverage different data sources for different customers.

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    List of lgbm ideas

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    The document discusses various ways to improve forecasting models for customers with occasional low forecasting period accuracy. It suggests: 1. Modeling these customers separately starting with naive models for baseline and comparing to similar customers based on channel, size or cluster. 2. Creating standard reports that summarize customers' forecasting results like weekly errors by class/size and percentage of periods with zero sales that were forecasted or not forecasted. 3. Exploring feature selection techniques like Boruta and Optuna to select the most important features, and using SHAP to evaluate feature importance to better leverage different data sources for different customers.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    Download as pdf or txt
    9 views1 page

    Model Improvement Ideas

    Uploaded by

    Petar
    The document discusses various ways to improve forecasting models for customers with occasional low forecasting period accuracy. It suggests: 1. Modeling these customers separately starting with naive models for baseline and comparing to similar customers based on channel, size or cluster. 2. Creating standard reports that summarize customers' forecasting results like weekly errors by class/size and percentage of periods with zero sales that were forecasted or not forecasted. 3. Exploring feature selection techniques like Boruta and Optuna to select the most important features, and using SHAP to evaluate feature importance to better leverage different data sources for different customers.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    of 1

    Create a version of lgbm code without

    synapse
    Any large customer with occasional very low
    fcst period accuracy Mode id

    Model these separately, starting with naive


    Non-retail customers with accuracies <= 75% Customer
    models for a baseline
    Customer lever
    Same channel, size, or cluster to find similar
    Period accuracies, mean, and stdev A few customers
    customers
    Model level (what data to use for training of a
    specific model)
    Weekly wmapes by class/size Many customers
    Review retail customers’ results Analysis

    % of period volume for products we forecasted Class/size


    that had zero sales Create a standard script that sumarizes a
    customers forecast results Product level
    Product category
    % of period sales where we forecasted zero
    (or didn’t forecast) that did have sales
    Lowest level
    Add a summary that shows how well we
    forecast push, holiday and falloff weeks
    Forecasting level Bdc

    Boruta
    Class size
    model improvement ideas

    At multiple # of features to keep valies Select from model


    Use pos data for customers that have it
    Feature selection
    Optuna
    Ranking features

    Evaluate model features using shap


    Find a way to better leverage yag data

    Use different models for different customers/


    (Lower priority) model selection use boruta and/or shap to see if they are
    products
    valuable
    Features
    Xgb
    Add pca and lda features

    Random forest Swap out lgbm with


    Other ideas Add + and *interaction terms

    Extra trees Algos


    Transform to make normal, box-cox, power
    transforms, etc
    Transforms
    Yea this is dumb, but it’s easy to test and if it
    improves our weekly wmapes then it will prove Try blending forecast with 4, 8, and 12wk
    Transform to uniform
    our current models are sub-optimal (i.e. we moving average
    suck)
    Create naive models for a proper baseline at
    levels described above

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