SSRN Id4398643

Putin is getting desperate
Rajendra K. Bera1
Acadinnet Education Services India Pvt. Ltd., B1/S1 Ganga Chelston, Silver Spring Road, Varthur Road,
Munnekolala, Bangalore 560037, India. Email: rajendrabera@yahoo.com
Abstract
Vladimir Putin with the self-confidence of a long-standing bully thought that all that was needed to annex
Ukraine and declare himself a communist Czar was to stride into Ukraine’s capital Kyiv on 24 February
2022 with columns of battle tanks and ill-trained soldiers commanded by generals with only an ad hoc
‘Special Military Operation’ (SMO) plan in their pockets. In short, the plan was to enter Kyiv, fire a few
artillery shells, wait for a while for Ukrainian soldiers to meekly surrender, and hold a ceremonial victory
parade. The SMO was meant to be a mock and mean, shock and awe act, a brazen taunt to the rest of the
world that when a nuclear armed ‘superpower’ communist Russia flexes its ‘military might’ the world
must take note and pay obeisance. That was not to be. Putin the Goliath met an unexpected David. More
than a year later the Goliath is fighting for its life, and very soon so will communism.
Key words: Putin, Biden, Ukraine, China, United States, Xi Jinping.
1 Introduction
Absolute power without empathy corrupts absolutely. Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are living
examples. Majority power with a sublime sense of responsibility uplifts humankind. India’s prime
minister Narendra Modi is a living example. A superpower leader with a sense of ‘what is the right
thing to do’ is the US president Joe Biden. An exemplary leader, selflessly fighting for the
independence of his country is the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky.
Principal players in the Russia-Ukrain war
Vladimir Putin is the villain and the Goliath; also the President of Russia, a country till a few months
ago was perceived a deemed superpower to be feared and respected. Putin thought it was time to
haughtily and mockingly challenge the US, NATO, and their allies as to who is the boss in his
neighborhood. Alas, Putin is no longer feared but despised and seen as a bully, and Russia has been
reduced to the status of a military power of no consequence.
Volodymyr Zelensky, a former actor and comedian, is the President of Ukraine, who has bravely taken
on the mantle of David in the Biblical story of David and Goliath.2 He is now one of the most admired
person in the world as a great patriot and a fearless war time leader.
Joe Biden is the spontaneous protector of Ukraine. Though Biden and Zelensky hardly knew other
before, since the invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, they have developed a camaraderie that
exists between a doting father and an admirable son to be proud of.
1Chief Mentor. Communicating author. The views expressed are those currently held by the author.
2“Armed with the inferior weapons of a shepherd, but empowered by God, David killed the mighty Goliath. With their
hero down, the Philistines scattered in fear. This triumph marked Israel’s first victory at the hands of David. Proving his
valor, David demonstrated that he was worthy to become Israel’s next King.” [Source: Fairchild (2019).
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4398643

Narendra Modi, for the present, is a minor player as a peacemaker in the war between Russia and
Ukraine. The David-Goliath story did not have a peacemaker. It ended with Goliath’s death and
complete defeat of his army. If the David-Goliath story plays out in the Russia-Ukraine war, it will likely
end in Russia’s defeat because of Putin’s Goliath-like nature. Peace making will not be needed, just
punishment will suffice.
How did the Russia-Ukraine war begin?
It began with Putin’s unbridled hatred for liberal democracy as opposed to communism. When Putin
invaded Ukraine, he expected a rapid victory within days. The provocation: Ukraine’s alleged Nazi-like
activities against Russian speaking people. A Putinian cock and bull story.
Now a year later, he still continues to spend enormous sums to pour soldiers and military resources
to the front lines in uncontrollable rage, completely oblivious of its unconscionable consequences.
Meanwhile, international sanctions are mounting, and targeting Russia’s primary source of revenue:
oil and gas exports. And yet, even as the cost of fighting the war continues to climb and jeopardize
Russia’s long-term economic growth, Vladimir Putin resolutely carries on, regardless the long-term
consequences to his country. He will secure an unexalted place in history. Why? For the Ukrainians a
total victory, including regaining all annexed lands is essential; a Russian victory would turn Ukraine
into a vassal state. Multiple analysts have referenced Korea’s 1953 armistice 3 that halted fighting
indefinitely without ending the war but Ukraine is unlikely to settle for an armistice. Russia might be
forced to, with massive reparation penalties!
Russia is at an inherent disadvantage in the face of a strong nationalist Ukrainian sentiment. Overnight
Putin has inadvertently turned the formerly divided and disgruntled inhabitants of Ukraine into the
proud Ukrainian people. Historically, wars of national liberation against declining empires are more
often successful than not. For success, Ukraine needs all the arms it can get from its well wishers – the
US and its allies. That inflow seems to be assured for “as long as necessary.”4 Joe Biden, in his surprise
visit to Kyiv on 20 February 2023, on his way to Poland, assured the Ukrainians, “Putin’s war of
conquest is failing. Russia’s military has lost half its territory it once occupied. Young, talented Russians
are fleeing by the tens of thousands, not wanting to come back to Russia. Not fl- — not just fleeing
from the military, fleeing from Russia itself, because they see no future in their country. Russia’s
economy is now a backwater, isolated and struggling.  You remind us that freedom is priceless; it’s
worth fighting for for as long as it takes. And that’s how long we’re going to be with you, Mr. President:
for as long as it takes.”5 On supporting Ukraine, Biden outshines Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz, and
all others.6 In Warsaw, Poland, on 21 February 2023, Biden said, “Appetites of the autocrat cannot be
appeased. They must be opposed.”7
Putin’s flawed strategy
Putin’s battle tanks are a joke, his fighter pilots lack combat training, and his military strategy has
gaping holes which Zelensky has intelligently identified and exploits cleverly. Putin’s military strategy
is not built around agile tactics, professional soldiers, and secure logistics. The resulting gaps are too
many. Ukrainian generals are fighting intelligently with an agile command structure involving small
units, Putin’s generals are fighting large, set-piece battles that involve large formations moving
3 KWAA (1953).
4 NYT (20230217)
5 White House (2023). See also: Waterhouse, Cuddy, and Armstrong (2023). Biden's presence was intended to reaffirm
America's “unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s democracy, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.”

6 Stephens (2023).
7 Biden (20230221).

according to a plan that assumes the opposing force will respond in an anticipated way. This is the
principal flaw in Putin’s strategy (in all likelihood designed by him and not his generals), and this will
be the reason why his defeat can be anticipated and exploited to the hilt to gain total victory by
Zelensky. Zelensky has no need for peace plans because total victory is possible in this once in a
lifetime opportunity!
After one year of bitter and bloody war which has devasted Ukraine and isolated Russia from the West
to a sorry degree, and fueled economic insecurity around the world, the war still continues, with no
end in sight. Here is a summary from The New York Times:
The war has already done untold damage: Tens of thousands have been killed on both sides, millions
of Ukrainians have been made homeless and Ukraine has sustained tens of billions of dollars worth
of damage that has left cities flattened and people around the country grappling with dark and cold.
But Ukrainians have also found strength in shared sacrifice, and hope in the setbacks their country’s
forces have dealt Russia on the battlefield. Ukraine has largely stopped the offensives of its much
larger and better-armed neighbor and has regained swaths of captured land, aided by the United
States and its European allies, which have remained united, funneling billions of dollars of weapons
to Kyiv.8
Putin’s army is now rapidly burning through military hardware, ammunition, and men.
Russia’s fate is predictable
It doesn’t matter what façade Putin puts, his war with Ukraine, related sanctions imposed on Russia,
the thoroughly dismal performance of his military for the past one year, and his obstinate continuation
of the war come what may, can only mean that by now he must be heavily constrained by fiscal
uncertainty caused by lower energy export revenues, higher war-related spending, and a steady fall
in GDP. If Putin continues at the helm, Russia’s downfall to destitution is assured. Russia has lost its
moral compass. Putin should worry about an armistice as he vacates annexed Ukrainian territories.
He cannot win a war with hundreds of thousands of untrained conscripts who are being hammered
on the head and their throats slit by a sickle. Ancient Hindu wisdom warns, in Sanskrit “Vinash Kale
Viprit Buddhi” (in translation, “As (one’s) doom approaches, (the person’s) intellect works against
(his/her) best interest”). It also means that when destruction comes, the mind ceases to accept any
good advice. So Putin is really on his own because his mind has deserted him. He only sees the path
of self-destruction and blindly follows it.
Communism’s fate is predictable
History is in the making. It will record how a mere Special Military Operation (SMO) launched by an
egotistical communist leader (who presumed his country was a superpower), within weeks, turned
into a raging war that finally shattered the last mythical, standing communist superpower. How
ironical for communism that tauntingly places others in the dustbin of history that by mounting a mere
SMO (with soldiers carrying their dress uniform in anticipation of an outright victory within a few days),
a superpower from its ranks should pave the way for the auto-destruction of communism. If Russia is
vanquished, China will wither away while its wolf warriors will threaten to “resolutely” reserve the
right to take revenge because they have never violated any nation’s sovereign rights. By the time
Putin’s war ends, Russia will no longer be even a second rate military power. Putin’s fate will be
decided in ways he never expected, and the people of Russia will bury communism.
8NYT (20230302). A thought provoking website. Links to Times resources — photo essays, videos, podcasts and maps,
articles and Opinion pieces — are free, as long as you access them directly from The Learning Network.

2 Putin’s Huff and puff play with fire
It takes a genius to conflagrate a SMO into an unintended major war within weeks. Putin is a genius.
Ever since he came to power, Putin has made known his desire to rebuild Russia and place it on a
pedestal. He believes that Russia occupies a unique place in the world with its own traditions, religion,
and culture. To regain glory, Russia needs conquest and control. Does this imply a superiority complex
or a deep rooted inferiority complex? Since Putin is a communist, inferiority complex is the answer.
And the means of erasing it is brute force with unbridled brutality, and the flow of blood. An impatient
Putin has adopted the tactics of a bully encouraged by the liberal democratic West’s diffidence in past
decades to engage militarily. He thought huff and puff and idle threats would suffice. And why not? Xi
Jinping seemed to be getting away with it with his wolf warriors and verbal threats of annexing Taiwan!
Xi Jinping is surely revising his plans. Seeing Putin’s plight, he must be wondering “Does Russia have
enough resources to win the war against Ukraine?” All Xi Jinping sees is an inept Putin turning a
deemed shoo-in SMO, blow up into a full fledged war that could put Goliath Russia’s future at stake.
Putin’s military is really a band of marauders
Putin’s inept and obviously untrained military very quickly had to resort to enlisting the brutal
capabilities of tens of thousands of prison inmates (after pardoning them) by having them join the
mercenary Wagner group to fight alongside Kremlin’s disorganized forces in Ukraine. Ukraine’s unique
selling point is Zelensky’s unmatched leadership. Ukraine defeats Russian bluff and military heft with
precision and superb timing in combat with whatever weapons it has. Finally, Ukraine has a cherished
goal. It will not stop till it recaptures all territories annexed by Russia, including Crimea. By inducting
mercenaries into the war Putin has created a huge, long-lasting social security problem in Russia. As
pardoned criminals return to civil life with their minds brutalized for life with battlefield traumas and
scenes of butchery, and prowl the streets of civil society, crime rate will increase and so will the cost
of policing them. The socio-economic consequences will be far worse if Russia loses the War.
Putin’s Special Military Operation
Putin, a former Lt. Colonel, planned his SMO with breathtaking ignorance of how military operations
are mounted. A year since 24 February 2022, when he started his misadventure, Russia finds itself
being pushed into a corner with no escape route but to vacate all Ukrainian territory annexed since
2014. The event has dramatically focused the world’s attention on the evil ideology of communism as
practiced by Putin and Xi Jinping. The fact that a mere SMO could within days be turned into a full-
fledged war by a militarily underprepared Ukraine, tenaciously and with romantic patriotism fighting
to retain its independence, is a spectacular example of how abhorrent communism is to freedom
loving people. The world is witnessing a predator-prey game, a game that is now well understood in
mathematical terms in chaos theory. The relevant mathematical model is called the logistic map.9
2.1 Sanctions as a deterrence

An avalanche of sanctions, unprecedented in terms of scope, speed and coordination, were heaped
on Russia and a near disastrous consequence was expected to ensue that would stop Putin’s SMO on
its tracks. It didn’t. A year has passed and Putin is as adamant as ever. Indeed, he continues to widen
and intensify his assaults on Ukraine. As always, economists are too dazed to understand this intensely
dynamic situation given Russia’s physical and economic size, the axioms of political (communist) logic
that are at play, and the adversarial human-humane nature of communism vis-à-vis liberal democracy.
9 For the mathematically minded, see the classic paper by May (1976). See also: Wolfram (n.d.), and Bradley (2010).

Overall Russia’s economy is suffering heavily but away from the big cities and hence it is out of sight.
Incipient signs of long-term debilitating conditions have begun surfacing. These include flight of
experts and expertise; paucity of talented and educated professionals; shortage and unavailability of
machines, spare parts, and servicing staff; disrupted financial services; etc. But we the Homo sapiens
are a resilient lot when it comes to surviving hardships, adversity, butchery, murder and mayhem, but
also an imaginative lot in creating them. We are adaptive predator-prey chameleons. The logistic map
aptly describes us, but most economists are unaware of this fact. Standard economic hand waving
theories predicted that Ukraine’s much smaller and weaker economy would not stand up to Putin’s
despicable, stab-in-the-back politico-military move. Yet it did because out of the blue Ukraine’s friends
with unexpected solidarity, resilience, dare devilry, and prescience acted in a concerted manner to
thwart the ambitions of an egotistical Putin. The economists and their partners in policy making had
not seen the approaching bifurcation point in the logistic map simply because they do not understand
communism, communists, and their warlords. They therefore completely misread Ukraine’s resilience
and devotion to freedom and its patriotic fervor to protect it.
The gathering damage to Russia’s economic security can be gauged from the more than 1,000
international companies that have pulled out of Russia completely or have idled their operations.
Those departing, take with them vital capital investment, goodwill, technology, and expertise.
Production suffers from decreasing imports of Western-made components, especially in key rail and
auto sectors where production has declined by half and has also left Russian consumers with lower
quality goods (e.g., cars without airbags, anti-lock brakes, etc.). Western-made semiconductors,
critical for many industries from farming to aviation, and even military weapons including jet fighters
and main battle tanks, have taken a big hit. The situation has impacted not just Russia’s ability to fight
but also disrupted the production of civil goods and availability of services. Over months, the goal of
the sanctions too have changed direction. It is now the destruction by attrition of Russia’s military-
industrial complex. We now know that the focus on hitting Russia hard with financial sanctions (e.g.,
freezing Russia’s Central Bank of almost half of its more than $630 billion in foreign reserves) did not
destroy Russia’s economy10 because the sale of its oil and gas could be diverted, albeit at discounted
prices, to China, India, and Turkey at sustainable levels. Further, over years, as a matter of abundant
precaution, Russia had built up a piggy bank (some have dubbed it ‘Fortress Russia’) from excess
energy revenues to defend its financial system from just such a scenario. However, by no means can
such a measure provide protection for too long, especially if a SMO is foolishly turned into a prolonged
war! In any case, the longer Putin continues with his war the deeper will Russia’s economy sink. Surely,
by now Putin must have realized that the West’s revised aim is to destroy Russia’s military-industrial
complex by combining sanctions with lavish military aid to Ukraine. The opportunity was too tempting
for the West to miss. The dustbin is heading towards Russia.
2.2 What do Russians think about the war?

In short, they don’t. If they do, they hide their thoughts. Communism runs on propaganda, and any
deviation from the party line invites ruthless suppression by the communist party.
Surely by late May 2022, the ceaseless thrashing the Russian military had received since the SMO
began in February 2022, Putin must have realized that he would soon run out of trained troops.
Ukraine’s sweeping, master counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast, 6-11 September 2022, caused such
desperation that he immediately ordered an involuntary reserve call-up of a few hundred thousand
rather than rely on volunteer recruitment. Yet, that would not be enough. Voluntary recruitment was
10 Northam (2022). See also: Brookings (20221229).

still required but by then eligible Russians had begun to leave Russia in droves − many when Putin
announced a partial mobilisation in September 2022. Putin was thus forced to effectively outsource
some of his recruitment to the Wagner Group (the private mercenary army now fighting in Ukraine
on Moscow’s behalf) and to Russia’s “ultranationalist community.” He hid his desperation by
propaganda and censorship. 11 Indeed, within days of the invasion, Russia banned journalists from
calling the Ukraine conflict a ‘war’ or an ‘invasion’.12
So, there is no war because Putin says so! Outwardly, in big cities most shops, cafes, business places
and banks are still open. Although many hipster journalists and IT specialists have left, others have
stepped into vacancies. Shoppers do complain about rising prices, but locally produced goods have
replaced some imported ones. The popular car-sharing service still functions, but the cars are now
largely Chinese-made. International sanctions have not brought Russia to the brink of 1990s-style
economic collapse, but that Russia is living through a looming crisis, albeit a slow burning one, is being
felt. Russians, with a conscience, if troubled by Putin’s bombing a city where many have friends and
relatives, hide it. Local doctors are leaving in droves, unable to cope with the surging numbers of war-
wounded arriving for treatment in local hospitals. Cheery street festivals held by local government are
well attended because absence gets noticed.13
In small border towns where shelling continues, residents feel abandoned and angry. The atmosphere
is gloomy and everyone feigns detachment. Memories of a grim past of empty shelves, no foreign
brands, out of reach prices have returned. When they visit a big city, they are shocked to find nothing
has changed there while their own lives have been turned topsy-turvy. Local cemeteries face a surge
of soldiers killed in Ukraine for burial. In places like Donetsk, no one is sure if it is in Russia or Ukraine.
None of this is surprising since there is no freedom of speech or information in Russia, only propaganda,
so it is impossible to discern what people honestly feel. At least, in public, no one opposes the war.
How can they, if calling the SMO a war is a crime? 14 Cowed under a repressive regime, ordinary
Russians find themselves in a corner they didn’t choose, don’t understand, and are powerless to
change. So they refrain from politics and let the Kremlin decide for them. One can sense moral
dilemmas that trouble those who have some access to news sources not controlled by the government.
They must pretend that the war is not an expansionist invasion, and shutter their eyes to the
Ukrainians who are killed and wounded in their tens of thousands and driven from their homes in their
millions. The situation is so bad that even God’s emissaries have fallen in line. Patriarch Kirill, head of
the Russian Orthodox Church and a Putin ally, has blessed Russia’s war effort!15
In summary,16
• Russians must accept it’s normal for soldiers to go into schools and tell their children war is a good
thing.
• That it’s normal for priests to support the war and stop praying for peace.
11 Goryanov (2023).
12 Simon (2022). “President Putin signed a law making the airing of what the government calls false information about the
armed forces illegal. Journalists could be jailed for up to 15 years. Russian officials assert it’s false to call their military
operations in Ukraine a war or an invasion. Several Western news outlets say they’ve suspended reporting from Russia
while they assess the law and the safety of their employees.”
13 Goryanov (2023).
14 Surprising that a former Lt. Col. of the Soviet Union does not know the difference between a war and a special military
operation, a difference that any conscript would know.

15 RFE/RL (20220926). During his Sunday sermon on 25 September 2022, Patriarch Kirill, head of the Russian Orthodox
Church, told his followers that “sacrifice in the course of carrying out your military duty washes away all sins.” This came
amid nationwide protests and rising criticism over the Kremlin’s recent announcement of a partial mobilization to replenish
Russian forces fighting in Ukraine.
16 Goryanov (2023).

• That it doesn’t matter they can no longer travel or be part of a broader world.
• That the Kremlin was right to block the majority of independent media sites they used to read.
• That a sledgehammer is now a positive symbol of Russian power in executions captured on camera
and posted by MPs on Twitter.
• And that it’s normal to go to jail for years for saying what you think about the war, whether you’re
a councilor or a journalist.
Putin will brook no dissent or prospect for change. For him, loss of absolute power may well mean the
loss of his head. To preserve Putin, Russians must pay with their freedom; Ukrainians are expected to
pay with their lives. The Russians are expected to believe that they are victims, heroes, liberators: the
good guys fighting Nazis and fascists.17 Putin is moving away from globalization. Russia, Ukraine and
the West are locked in a war between two rival ideological systems. Eventually Russia must lose if
liberal democracy is to prevail. Historically, “[a]fter defeat in Afghanistan in 1989 came the Gorbachev
era. Defeat against Japan in 1905 was followed by constitutional reform, and after defeat in the
Crimean war in 1856 came emancipation of the serfs.”18 We’ll have to see what follows after a defeat
in the Ukrainian war.
2.3 Lt. Col. Vladimir Putin has a lot to learn about warfare
It is perhaps instructive to compare Adolf Hitler and Vladimir Putin as military strategists. Lance
Corporal Hitler won the Iron Cross Second Class in 1914 and the Iron Cross First Class in 1918, an
honour rarely given to a lance corporal. Hitler’s bravery has never been questioned nor his patriotism
for Germany or empathy for the frontline soldier. In World War I he refused promotions so that he
could remain a plain soldier and be with fellow soldiers on the frontline. In World War II Hitler served
as the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Wehrmacht (German Armed Forces) through his position
as Führer of Nazi Germany. He fell from grace in history for his brutal attempts to exterminate the
Jews. He also acutely hated communists and communism.19 Vladimir Putin was a Lt. Colonel in the
KGB (Soviet Union), has no military honors won in combat, and is the supreme commander of the
Russian Armed Forces as the president of Russia. He has already sealed his place in history as one of
the most brutal head of state, and the most incompetent supreme commander of Russia’s military.
Putin is obviously unaware of the logistic map (the predator-prey game; the game of the haves and
the have nots), and even less aware of military operations (especially, its logistics. He is obviously
unaware of Field Marshal Count Helmuth von Moltke’s wise observations on warfare.20 Unknowingly,
Putin is doing his best to bring Russia to its knees. He will succeed. He could even break up Russia
considering that he continues to lose soldiers, conscript an ever-growing number of men while
continuing to wade through a sluggish economy under the grip of Western sanctions. Amazing
achievements for a SMO that was meant to bring Ukraine to its knees within a few days of the invasion!
Putin, Russia, and communism stand ridiculed as they inch their way to the dustbin of history. The
17 Rosenberg (2022).
18 Goryanov (2023).
19
This, however, had not deterred Joseph Stalin to ally with Hitler in the early stages of World War II, then
later join the allied powers against Hitler, and after the war ended, stab the allied powers in the back.
20 Moltke’s Instructions for Large Unit Commanders: “Victory alone breaks the will of the enemy and forces him to submit
to our will. Neither the possession of a tract of land nor the conquest of a fortified position will suffice. On the contrary,
only the destruction (Zerstörung) of the enemy’s fighting power will, as a rule, be decisive. This [destruction of the enemy’s
fighting power] is therefore the foremost object of operations. (Operationsobjekt).” Moltke on the Art of War: Selected
Writings, ed. Daniel J. Hughes. Presidio, 1993. Quite notably, Moltke shaped his ideas at a time of technological and
economic change. In this light is it difficult to understand Zelensky’s strategy? See also: Roth (1992), pp. 1-10.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/26302811

Soviet Union disintegrated on 26 December 1991 for failing to reform, now Russia too may do so
because of a misguided and botched SMO, which Putin still insists is not a war. A blind maniac is now
ruling Russia. China, on the other hand, knowing its own weaknesses, wages war on the world using
wolf-warriors with pretended ferocity and dire threats. With astonishing stupidity it also unleashed
on itself a self-destructive zero-Covid policy that it abruptly ended after almost three years on 07
December 2022 that immediately put millions of Chinese and China in danger.21
It is now amply clear that Russia lacks military means to accomplish its political ends in Ukraine. In
sheer desperation, Russia blasts away missiles and ammunition faster than its defence industry can
replenish. Its demoralized military is desperately trying to hang on to its early territorial gains and
losing. Yet, stubbornly, Putin wants to grab more. His threats of nuclear escalation, and dire
consequences if his proclaimed red lines are crossed, are dismissed as coming from a scared bully.
After an initial mobilization of 300,000 conscripts, he can hardly mobilize more without risking
domestic riots. A deluded, maniacal Putin remains blind to the gulf between his objectives and his
means. In diplomacy he has blown away all bridges.22 He is now a pariah and an alleged war criminal
with an arrest warrant on his head. The possible final outcomes appear to be either Putin surrenders,
is overthrown, or he commits a blunder that will allow NATO to step in. A negotiated settlement is
impossible as long as Putin is in power, simply because Putin is not a man of honor but a man of deceit.
The West has come to admire Zelensky so much that his moral values override crass political
expediencies. Putin’s SMO has already sealed the fate of communism. Communism is now fated to be
thrown into the dustbin of history (assuming the dustbin is not too disgusted as to slink away).
In the meantime, Zelensky will undoubtedly have some daring counteroffensives up his sleeve. He
may, for example, try a thrust into the Zaporizhzhia region in the southeast to sever Russia’s land
bridge to Crimea, trap another pocket of Putin’s forces, etc. Success will encourage more Western aid
to follow and thus enable further Ukrainian victories by sheer momentum. Zelensky has become adept
at exploiting such Russian weaknesses as its soldiers casually smoking near ammunition dumps,
chatting on cellphones in combat zones, its generals using outdated war tactics, and that Putin
strategized his SMO without a careful assessment of Ukraine’s strengths and weaknesses. Unwittingly
Putin trapped himself into a digital era war, the conduct of which he knows nothing. In warfare, scale
matters. SMOs never scale up to a war. The quicker one tries to scale up, the bigger the approaching
disaster. Putin no longer controls the war, the war controls him, and Zelensky controls the war, and
the fate of the western world depends on ensuring that Zelensky wins.
Xi Jinping is certainly watching. From his unwavering ‘No limits’ support declared in February 2022 to
Putin,23 one now sees obvious signs of Xi Jinping gradually trying to dissolve his support. He never
imagined the SMO would turn into a full scale war. He must now improvise. Much worse, he must
revisit and revise his subversive plans of dominating the world. Putin’s war has initiated an irreversible
change in the world order. For Xi Jinping, colluding with Putin is now extremely risky. Xi Jinping is
shrewd enough to know that bluff, bluster, and wolf-warriors can achieve only so much. When bullets
start flying, export markets shrink or vanish rapidly, students studying abroad for higher education get
evicted, and intellectual property theft gets plugged. China’s existence is now precarious. It has much
to lose now that COVID-19 has once again begun to sweep through China. China is in deep trouble.
21 Cowling (2023).
22 Gabuev (2023).
23 Johnson, and Pomfret (2022). George Santayana once said, “I suppose people aren’t ashamed of doing or feeling
anything, no matter what, if only they can do it together. And sometimes two people are enough.” —The Last Puritan, A
Memoir in the Form of a Novel. MIT Press, 1994, p. 227. In this war Putin and Xi Jinping are in it together!

Ambassador Qin Gang, Beijing’s envoy to the US, told state-backed Phoenix TV on 23 March 2022
(obviously with the dismal performance of Putin’s SMO and its impact on China in mind),
China and Russia’s cooperation has no forbidden areas, but it has a bottom line. That line is the
tenets and principles of the United Nations Charter, the recognized basic norms of international law
and international relations. This is the guideline we follow in bilateral relations between China and
any other country.24
But the duplicity is obvious. “Since the invasion, China has sought to portray itself as neutral: Issuing
statements supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty and expressing concern about civilian casualties, while
supporting Putin at the United Nations and blaming the U.S. for provoking the war by expanding the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization.” 25 In a call on 18 March 2022 that lasted almost two hours, US
President Joe Biden cautioned Xi Jinping against providing military or sanctions assistance to Moscow.
Biden candidly detailed the potential “implications and consequences” should Beijing move to provide
material support to Russia26. Xi Jinping has since acted with restraint, very likely advised by his inner circle
to observe abundant caution and keep a safe distance from Putin.
The issues between US and China are rather complicated. Both sides have interlocking economic
interests and global supply chain connectivity but China has far more to lose. For example, it can be
exposed to secondary sanctions such as a Chinese semiconductor company being barred from
accessing American equipment and software if Washington discovered the company was violating US
export controls by selling chips to Russia. What must have surprised China most (and the rest of the
world too) was the speed and agility with which not only European allies, but also allies in the Indo-
Pacific including Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Australia and even Singapore, quickly imposed sanctions
on Moscow over its SMO. In essence, they all sent a clear signal to Beijing that it should expect a similar
response to any Chinese invasive action against Taiwan or in the South China Sea.27 Xi Jinping must
keep Putin on a leash. Russia can no longer act as the big brother of the Red world.
Putin’s mad rush into an unplanned war
Turning a SMO into a full scale war is an unimaginable catastrophe. Such languorous military planning
defies imagination, and is perhaps without a parallel in history. Even more surprising is the diverse
opinion of scholars, experts, and top government decision makers as to where and how the matter
may end. For example, Foreign Affairs has a collection of articles with the following titles:
What If Russia Wins? A Kremlin-Controlled Ukraine Would Transform Europe. February 18, 2022
What If Russia Loses? A Defeat for Moscow Won’t Be a Clear Victory for the West. March 4, 2022
What If Russia Makes a Deal? How to End a War That No One Is Likely to Win. March 23, 2022
What If the War in Ukraine Doesn’t End? The Global Consequences of a Long Conflict. April 20, 2022
What If Ukraine Wins? Victory in the War Would Not End the Conflict With Russia. June 6, 2022
What If the War in Ukraine Spins Out of Control? How to Prepare for Unintended Escalation. July 19, 2022
All these questions (and many more) appear legitimate, plausible and eruditely discussed by armchair
experts with narrow specializations, speculating inside silos. The real questions should have been
“Who can win with what resources, stamina, and alliances and how will they recuperate in the
aftermath? How will the world be affected socially, economically, and politically during and after the
24 Bloomberg (20220324).
25 Bloomberg (20220324).
26 Widakuswara (2022).
27 Widakuswara (2022).

war? Siloed speculations are waste of everyone’s time because these questions are dissected minutely,
nit-picked, articulated in impeccable style, often with a sense of showmanship, and almost always
without any real blend of knowledge that addresses the complexity of the situation much less find
solutions. In fact rare is the scholar with insight into communist ideology or the mindset of orthodox
communist leaders or how or why these leaders intrinsically differ in their world view, e.g., from the
ideals enshrined in the US Declaration of Independence. Has it occurred to anyone that Putin is driven
by the reptilian part of his brain, while Xi Jinping cleverly and deviously uses his neocortex. Zelensky
uses his neocortex to an extraordinary degree rarely seen among political leaders. Each leader is
driven by his genetic code adapting to and altering the environment it finds itself in. Zelenksy adapts
but more importantly creates the environment he needs to operate in for his counteroffensives. But
then, armchair specialists are not trained in the rigors of molecular biology, much less of quantum
physics! Social sciences allow for lavish hand wringing, handwaving, entertainment, speculation,
gossip, and upmanship. When everybody gets it wrong, there is no embarrassment! Everyone winks.
Xi Jinping is too rigid and ruthless in his policies and resists popular sentiments as a guide toward self-
correction. His facial muscles are permanently frozen into a sour and dour look, a visible, genetic
display of a mind that is naturally calculating, humorless, ruthless, and deviously scheming. Donald
Trump alone saw Xi Jinping for what he was and therefore could thwart Xi’s imperious desire to get a
stranglehold on the globalized economy and in particular destroy the US economy. Xi saw COVID-19
as a golden opportunity to dominate the global economy by having a zero-COVID policy. He assumed
it would be a short term measure, a grievous mistake that showed his depth of ignorance about
pandemics and the multiple opportunities very large viruses get to mutate and therefore persist. His
zero-COVID policy has left the Chinese people more vulnerable to the coronavirus than before. China
will pay a very heavy socio-economic price for his ignorance. Xi Jinping uses cunning when intelligence
is required; his role model is Mao Tse-tung (Mao Zedong).
Putin is predominantly driven by the reptilian brain (a part of the brain that controls our innate and
automatic self-preserving behavior patterns, which ensure our survival and that of our species), very
little by the neocortex, and his rise to power has been mediated by his limbic system. His catch phrase
“Let them try”, is a false bravado he uses when crammed into a corner. His threat to use nuclear
weapons is mere bravado (analogous to his bare chested, horse riding, smirking display of his muscles).
Putin throws mindless brawn (throwing conscripts into battle without training and equipment) as
military strategy. Putin’s claim that he is open to talks with Ukraine if Kyiv accepts territorial losses to
Russia in the east and south is a hypocritical, obscene, and maniacal taunt that deserves Zelensky’s
contemptuous response: get out of Ukraine or face consequences.
A show of implacability implied by Putinian taunts can never stand up to the statesmanship of Zelensky
and his implacable fervor to protect Ukraine’s freedom. Putin’s role model appears to be Joseph Stalin.
Mao and Stalin are iconic demons of mass murder without a conscience. They can never accept the
ideal that says, “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are
endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the
pursuit of Happiness.”28 Zelensky is comparable to Winston Churchill in assessing an opponent when
fighting a war; Zelensky’s war tactics resemble those of Napoleon's. Putin, well, he doesn’t know the
difference between a SMO and a war. Me, Putin, start war? What war! What chance of winning can
he have with such illiteracy in nomenclature? Even his comrade-in-arms, Xi Jinping, is aghast.
Complex issues like the Russia-Ukraine war, above all, require an assessment of the mindset of leaders
involved, their magnetic pull to draw loyal followers willing to die for them, and finally their ability to
28 America’s Declaration of Independence. https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/declaration-transcript
10

wage war. Zelensky obviously excels in such matters, Xi Jinping is too timid, and Putin is stunningly
dense. Unfortunately, armchair media and academic pundits lacking in such assessment skills, spout
salacious rubbish as informed and considered views for public consumption. While the twists and
turns of a war are too often unpredictable, those who can skillfully draw parallels by matching a leader
with a counterpart from the past will usually fare better in assessing the brain-mind functioning of a
current leader. It is therefore crucial that leaders and policymakers become adept at drawing parallels
from history. “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”29
The issues became clear within days following 24 February 2022. For Zelensky, Ukraine must win. Once
Russia began to retreat from Kyiv, the question has never been if Ukraine can press further. The reality
is, it must. Zelensky knows communism far better than the leaders of the democratic West, and in
particular, Putin’s psychology. Peace talks with Putin is an emphatic ‘No-No’. Crimea must be regained
and secured by Ukraine, no matter what the cost. Zelensky knows that better than anyone else in the
world. Moltke would approve!30
For Putin the real issue is ‘How to stop Ukrain from winning’. For Xi Jinping the parallel issue has since
been, ‘Can he ever hope to annex Taiwan?’ now that Ukraine is a role model for national independence.
The track record of each since 24 February 2022 amply shows that Zelensky is the clear winner if the
US and its NATO allies continue to sincerely support him. Anything less would mean Putin and Xi
Jinping would strangle freedom everywhere on Earth. The question the pundits should ask and
introspect on: ‘What should we do to ensure that Ukraine remains free without any compromise with
Russia and bringing Putin to trial as a war criminal?’ Corollary: Failing to do so will mean Xi Jinping will
embark on annexing Taiwan.
Due to the nefarious designs and ambitions of Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, both globalization and
free trade are almost dead. A discerning mindset is setting in that divides communist countries from
the rest. So has the realization that communist countries are bullies fit to be thrown in the dustbin of
history. They can be isolated by export controls and the banning of products with embedded electronic
chips. Increased efficiencies in 3D-manufacturing and marketing will reduce globalization and shrink
markets of communist countries. On the brighter side, the free world will be amply compensated by
not being mired in costly and brutal wars which communists inflict ruthlessly on anyone ideologically
opposed to them. Politicians of the free world should learn from history and recall what Churchill said
while assessing Adolf Hitler:
But in war of the kind we were now to feel, the conditions were different. Alas, I must write it: the
actual conflict had to be more like one ruffian bashing the other on the snout with a club, a hammer,
or something better. All this is deplorable, and it is one of the many good reasons for avoiding war
and having everything settled by agreement in a friendly manner, with full consideration for the
rights of minorities and the faithful recording of dissentient opinions.31
Russia hurtling towards an economic crisis
There can be no doubt that Russia’s economy is heading towards a collapse. An exodus of Western
companies has rapidly eroded its credibility as a trusted partner in trade. Its current status as a pariah
29 Santayana (1905), p. 284.

30 See, e.g., Helmuth von Moltke (the Elder), Daniel Hughes (Editor). Moltke on the Art of War: Selected Writings (Edited by
Daniel J. Hughes). Presidio Press, (Paperback) – June 1, 1995. Field Marshal Helmuth Graf von Moltke is best known for his
direction of the German/Prussian campaigns against Austria in 1866 and France in 1870-71.
31 Churchill (1948). Chapter XXXIII, p. 529. Sir Winston Leonard Spencer Churchill won the Nobel Prize in Literature 1953
“for his mastery of historical and biographical description as well as for brilliant oratory in defending exalted human
values”.
11

burdened with a massive range of sanctions has already caused severe economic damage. Recovery
will not be easy. If Putin does not end the war and vacate annexed Ukrainian territories soon, he will
invite disaster. In any case his days are numbered because his barbarism has no bounds, perhaps even
by the standards of communism. His own people are now turning against him knowing well that brutal
reprisal will follow. The Berlin Wall fell, the Soviet Union fell, now will Russia be next? Will China too
follow in its wake? Putin’s barbarism puts humanity to deep shame. Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have
brought globalization to a halt. On 17 March 2022, Posen wrote:
Over the last three weeks, the Russian economy has been overwhelmed by sanctions. Soon after
the Kremlin invaded Ukraine, the West began seizing the assets of the wealthiest individuals close
to Russian President Vladimir Putin, prohibited Russian flights in its airspace, and restricted the
Russian economy’s access to imported technology. Most dramatically, the United States and its allies
froze the reserve assets of Russia’s central bank and cut Russia out of not just the SWIFT financial
payments system, but of the basic institutions of international finance, including all foreign banks
and the International Monetary Fund. As a result of the West’s actions, the value of the ruble has
crashed, shortages have cropped up throughout the Russian economy, and the government appears
to be close to defaulting on its foreign currency debt. Public opinion—and the fear of being hit by
sanctions—has compelled Western businesses to flee the country en masse. Soon, Russia will be
unable to produce necessities either for defense or for consumers because it will lack critical
components.32
The economic pendulum is now swinging towards localism from globalism. Erosion of globalism began
incipiently some two decades ago when populists and nationalists began erecting barriers to free trade,
investment, immigration, and the free flow of ideas. In parallel, China began executing a strategic plan
of challenging the rules-based international economic system and longstanding security arrangements
in Asia. China’s brazen assertiveness as a coercive regional superpower challenging the US attracted
animosity from the West. It had expected collaboration and rules-based competition, not antagonism
with ‘Chinese characteristics’. The West began erecting barriers to China’s economic domination.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has starkly illustrated that communism and liberal democracy are poles
apart. Altruism-and-efficiency driven globalization powered by the West’s infrastructure assets that
facilitate global trade must withdraw from communism influenced territories. Henceforth, the West
must choose allies and partners in trade and security with greater pragmatism. This is a turning point
in history, a bifurcation point (a phase change) in the predator-prey game. As globalization downsizes,
there will be some transitional loss of efficiency from reduced economies of scale, and the economies
of some countries will convulse, but all will benefit from the absence of anarchy that China and Russia
are intent on unleashing. The weaker countries will learn survival skills by developing a culture and
way of life that blends better with their natural environment. They will be ruled by Darwin’s law of the
survival of the fittest. Indeed, the weaker nations must learn to stand on their feet. At 8 billion, the
global population faces catastrophic climate change, future pandemics, and the AI revolution. They all
indicate a catastrophic decimation of the population. Such catastrophes do not permit returning to a
familiar safe harbor of the past. As the world goes through a state of chaos, adaptation becomes a
game of discovery and chance. The meek will not inherit the Earth, they will die. The survivors will be
too busy clinging to life to lend a helping hand to the weak.
China faces a dilemma
China is walking on a tight rope. It has adopted a nonconfrontational response to the Russian invasion
of Ukraine for fear of being slapped with economic and other sanctions if it finances or supplies Russia
32 See, e.g., Posen (2022).
12

in contravention, let alone bail Moscow out. It fears America’s economic might which can destroy
China’s integration with the global economy. It is now acutely conscious of rising anti-China feelings
permeating the world and America’s sudden willingness to exercise military might to contain China.
Putin’s SMO-turned-war is now in its second year and grinding on. It may end sooner if Putin loses
political power. His fate will then be decided by the brutal rituals of communism. Lately, Russia has
begun to admit by its actions that Western sanctions have crippled supplies of some crucial products.
There are now acute shortages of parts for cars (from engine parts like pistons, oil pumps, ignition
coils to bumpers) to aircraft (nearly all planes are foreign-made and imports are required for landing
gear components, fuel systems, communication systems, fire extinguishing systems, life jackets and
aviation tires) and helicopters. It also needs raw materials to produce paper, paper bags and consumer
packaging and materials and equipment to produce textiles including yarns and dyes.
Unfortunately, the SMO has made the Russia-China marriage of convenience a liability for both.
A simple question
The simple question we should ask: If China, Russia, and America are all endowed with huge natural
resources, then how come America in 400 years became a superpower from scratch and a blazing
example of liberal democracy, and the once mighty ancient empires, China and Russia, are now hugely
envious of it today? How come they have no cosmos of their own to flaunt in spite of having been
around far longer in history? The answer is in the predator-prey game (the logistic map).
India faces a dilemma
For decades, Russia has been India’s largest supplier of military equipment to secure its border against
Pakistan (an Islamic country) and China (a communist country); both have annexation fever running
through their veins! In return, Russia is India’s fourth biggest market for pharmaceuticals it will need
to save its conscripts now being thrown into battle against Ukraine. On reflection, India’s stand is
complicated because of its long standing adversarial relationship with communist China; it annexed
large chunks of Indian territory in 1962. India’s friendly relationship with communist Russia was built
over a long period when it became the largest military supplier to India’s armed forces. India faces a
dilemma. It has adopted a moral middle path of staying neutral.
In an interactive session at a conference in the Slovakian capital Bratislava in June 2022, when India’s
foreign minister S. Jaishankar was queried about New Delhi’s stand on the Russia-Ukraine war and its
potential negative impact on finding global support for resolving its problems with Beijing in the future,
he sharply retorted: the “Chinese do not need a precedent somewhere else on how to engage us or
not engage us or be difficult with us or not be difficult with us. Somewhere Europe has to grow out of
the mindset that Europe’s problems are the world’s problems but the world’s problems are not
Europe’s problems. That if it is you, it’s yours, if it is me it is ours. I see reflections of that.  If I were
to take Europe collectively which has been singularly silent on many things which were happening, for
example in Asia, you could ask why would anybody in Asia trust Europe on anything at all.” He
elaborated, “In terms of the connection you are making, we have a difficult relationship with China
and we are perfectly capable of managing it. If I get global understanding and support, obviously it is
of help to me. But this idea that I do a transaction – I come in one conflict because it will help me in
conflict two. That’s not how the world works. A lot of our problems in China have nothing to do with
Ukraine and have nothing to do with Russia. They are predated.” About Ukraine, he said, “In terms of
what is happening with the Ukraine conflict, our position is very clear that we favour an immediate
cessation of hostilities. Its not that we have ignored it unless you call phone calls to (Vladimir) Putin
and (Volodymyr) Zelenskyy as ignoring something.” He reminded the interviewer, “First of all you are
13

mischaracterizing our position, for example when Bucha happened, we condemned Bucha and we
actually asked for an investigation into Bucha.”33
Jaishankar’s statements made a big impact. On 18 February 2023, German Chancellor Scholz during
the Munich Security Conference reiterating Jaishankar’s words, suggested a change in the so-called
“mindset”. Shankar’s quotes were included in the Munich Security Report for emphasis. Scholz also
noted that to be a credible European or North American in Jakarta, New Delhi, it is not enough to
emphasise shared values. He said, “We have to generally address the interests and concerns of these
countries as a basic prerequisite for joint action. And that’s why it was so important to me to not
merely have representatives of Asia, Africa and Latin America at the negotiating table during the G-7
Summit last June.” He added, “I really wanted to work with these regions to find solutions to the main
challenges they face − growing poverty and hunger, partly as a consequence of Russia’s war, as well
as the impact of climate change or COVID-19.”34
The West and NATO have one kind of trade balancing problem, India has quite another. Between 24
February 2022 and 20 November 2022, Indian imports from Russia grew from $6 billion for the same
period in 2021 to $29 billion in 2022. Meanwhile, exports have fallen to $1.9 billion from $2.4 billion.
India is in a quandary. Some Indian companies are wary of exporting to Russia fearing sanctions
(particularly on sanctioned items) by the West, lack of clarity over payments, and challenges related
to insurance.35
Despite pressures from the West and warming relationship with the US, India has avoided condemning
Russia and has quietly pushed for a diplomatic solution. The G2036 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, New
Delhi, 01-02 March 2023 produced only a Chair’s Summary and Outcome Document.37 Under India’s
presidency, it was a damp squib. India could not effectively use the occasion to advance its global rise
and push for a broader global agenda.
Sergei Lavrov (Russian foreign minister) and Anthony Blinken (US foreign secretary) met briefly on the
sidelines of the G20 meeting on 02 March 2023 for less than 10 minutes and spoke while on the move.
33 PTI (20220603). “The strong comments by Jaishankar came amid persistent efforts by Europe to convince India to take a
tough position on the Russian invasion of Ukraine with the argument that Delhi may face a similar challenge from China.”
34 Outlook (20230220).
35 See, e.g., Reuters (20221129). Moscow has sent India a list of more than 500 products for potential delivery, including
parts for cars, aircraft and trains, as sanctions squeeze Russia’s ability to keep vital industries running.”
36 The Group of Twenty (G20) comprises 19 countries (Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India,
Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Türkiye, United Kingdom and United
States) and the European Union. The G20 members represent around 85% of the global GDP, over 75% of the global trade,
and about two-thirds of the world’s population.
37 G20 (20230302). Paragraphs 3 and 4 of this document, as taken from the G20 Bali Leaders’ Declaration (15-16 November
2022), were agreed to by all member countries except Russia and China. These paragraphs are:
“3. The war in Ukraine has further adversely impacted the global economy. There was a discussion on the issue. We
reiterated our national positions as expressed in other fora, including the UN Security Council and the UN General
Assembly, which, in Resolution No. ES-11/1 dated 2 March 2022, as adopted by majority vote (141 votes for, 5 against, 35
abstentions, 12 absent) deplores in the strongest terms the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine and
demands its complete and unconditional withdrawal from the territory of Ukraine. Most members strongly condemned the
war in Ukraine and stressed it is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global
economy – constraining growth, increasing inflation, disrupting supply chains, heightening energy and food insecurity, and
elevating financial stability risks. There were other views and different assessments of the situation and sanctions.
Recognizing that the G20 is not the forum to resolve security issues, we acknowledge that security issues can have
significant consequences for the global economy.
“4. It is essential to uphold international law and the multilateral system that safeguards peace and stability. This includes
defending all the Purposes and Principles enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations and adhering to international
humanitarian law, including the protection of civilians and infrastructure in armed conflicts. The use or threat of use of
nuclear weapons is inadmissible. The peaceful resolution of conflicts, efforts to address crises, as well as diplomacy and
dialogue, are vital. Today’s era must not be of war.” That Russia and China did not agree is of great significance.
14

Later, Blinken reportedly said, “I told the foreign minister [Sergei Lavrov] what I and so many many
others said last week at the United Nations, and what so many G20 foreign ministers said today - end
this war of aggression, engage in meaningful diplomacy that can produce a just and lasting peace,” He
said he also urged Russia to rejoin the New START nuclear arms control treaty, describing as
“irresponsible” Moscow’s recent decision to suspend its participation in the agreement.38
Ironically, the theme of the 18th G20 Summit to be held in New Delhi, India (09-10 September 2023) is
‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’ (in Sanskrit), which translates to ‘One Earth, One Family, One Future.’
Although in March 2023 India’s prime minister Narendra Modi exhorted those assembled to “focus
not on what divides us, but on what unites us” while discussing matters “in the land of Gandhi and the
Buddha”, it is unlikely to be heeded.
Complicating matters further: (1) On 23 February 2023, on the eve of the first anniversary of Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine, the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) adopted a resolution, calling for an
end to the war. India was among the 32 states that abstained. In fact, India has refused to condemn
Russia for the invasion; it has refused to join the West’s sanctions; has stepped up buying Russian fuel
at a discounted price, and has consistently abstained from UN votes on the war. (2) There are moral
positions and national interests. For the US and much of Europe, the divergence between moral
positions and foreign policy objectives are less. In this power play, the US and its European allies aim
to make Russia’s invasion so costly and its military so weak that Moscow would be deterred in the
future. (3) When there is a divergence between national interests and moral concepts, the West, too
often, embraces the first. (4) There is a strategic advantage for India in keeping Russia as an ally, in
order to restrain China.
Speaking at the 77th UN General Assembly on 24 September 2022, India’s foreign minister, S.
Jaishankar said, “We are often asked whose side we are on. And our answer, each time, is straight and
honest. India is on the side of peace and will remain firmly there. We are on the side of those struggling
to make ends meet, even as they stare at escalating costs of food, fuel and fertilisers.” He recalled
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s emphasis to Russian President Vladimir Putin that “this cannot
be an era of war”.39
We live in an imperfect, predator-prey world fragmented by man-made rules of law built around
community defined rules of ethical and moral behavior. Violation of these rules attract retributions,
model behavior bring rewards. However, these rules are always circumscribed by the inviolable laws
of Nature. For regenerative life forms, we know at least two: (1) Nature is red in tooth and claw. Each
life form is a link in at least one food chain (where each link is food for one or more links in the chain)
and the chains are linked into a vast network; (2) The network evolves by the brutal law of the survival
of the fittest in each link or groups of collaborative links in the environment it finds itself in. For the
inviolable laws of Nature, ethics and morality are irrelevant! Thus communism cannot be eradicated
by dubbing it evil nor liberal democracy prevail because it is the right way of life. For either, survival
will depend on their ability to survive the present. It is about denying sustenance to the opponent. It
is a predator-prey game, mathematically modeled by the logistic map.
Putin will eventually lose the war not because he is not brutal enough, but because Putin’s brutality is
incoherent and diffusive and hence wasteful of energizes. Zelensky and his compatriots respond with
coherent and focused brutality permitted under man-made laws of war and hence their actions are
better suited for survival in the present socio-economic-political environment of the war. Putin’s
38 Usher, and Yousif (2023).

39 Jaishankar (2022).
15

brutality is simply misdirected. Putin uses the reptilian part of his brain; Zelensky his neocortex. Putin
will lose not because the US, NATO, and Zelensky are morally right. In the past the US too has violated
human sensibilities. For example: (1) In 2003, the US launched its illegal invasion of Iraq, violating the
country’s sovereignty; (2) In 2011, NATO turned a UN Security Council resolution to establish a no-fly
zone in Libya into a full-scale invasion; (3) Israel has illegally annexed East Jerusalem and Syria’s Golan
Heights and established Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank. Cleverly used might is right.
All’s fair in love and war.
Misplaced hesitancy in providing certain weapons to Ukraine
The US-led Nato military alliance initially hesitated in providing certain arms (main battle tanks,
advanced fighter aircraft, etc) to Kyiv, citing concerns that it could lead to a major escalation with a
nuclear-armed Russia. Putin has repeatedly warned the US and its allies not to cross “red lines” by
supplying long-range weapons to Ukraine. This has not prevented Zelensky from improvising with
what he has, while ensuring that the alliance is not dragged into the war without cause. Within these
bounds, Ukrainians have “the equipment that they need to defend themselves, to defend their
territory, to defend their freedom.”40 The good thing about military aid to Ukraine is that equipment
and relevant troop training is delivered as a package.
In the meanwhile, Ukraine will likely continue to go after Russia’s logistics, and command and control
centers in preparation for launching its next phase of counteroffensives. Russia has already lost a huge
amount of its hoarded firepower since February 2022. It is now scrapping the bottom of the barrel for
weapons and ammunition, including outdated material. For replenishment, it seeks out sources like
Iran. Ukraine, on the other hand, will continue to receive more military aid from its US and European
allies, including artillery shells, light tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles. 41 Ironically, within nine
months of fighting in Ukraine, Russia’s army was estimated to have lost nearly 40% of its prewar fleet
of tanks. “That rises to as much as 50% for some of the key tanks used in combat, forcing Russia to
reach into its still sizeable cold war-era stocks. Ukraine’s tank numbers are estimated to have
increased because of the number it has captured and supplies of Soviet-era tanks from its western
allies.”42 “The European Commission has called for a ban on the export of vital technology to Russia
worth €11bn to further weaken the Kremlin’s war effort  [in its] toughest-ever sanctions.  [T]he
EU was targeting industrial goods that Russia needs, such as electronic components for drones and
helicopters; spare parts for trucks and jet engines; and construction equipment such as antennas or
cranes that could be turned to military uses.”
Russia’s disintegration is now a good possibility. It will be fuelled by Putin’s ego. His atrocities will prod
NATO to step in before the world gets into a deeper crisis. Till Putin is brought to trial for crimes against
humanity and reparations from Russia sought, the blow to already fragile economies due to rising oil
and food prices will continue to compound and become a major global problem unless Russia pays for
its folly. It was a stroke of good fortune (because EU on its own would have floundered fearing a
disastrous energy crisis) that the EU rallied to Biden’s call to support Ukrain. It turned Putin’s blatant,
bullying bluff of a ‘Special Military Operation’ into the mire of a devastating war. Russia’s military is
now fully exposed as a bumbling, archaic war machine to be feared only for its barbaric, brutal, and
cowardly acts on unarmed civilians. Those tactics deserve appropriate reprisals.
Once communist bluff and bluster runs out of its foul breath, the world will see communist leaders as
meek entities who shall not inherit the Earth. If they are not tried as war criminals, they will bide their
40 Lukiv (2022).
41 Turak, and Macias (2023).
42 Chao-Fong, Belam, and Sullivan (2023).
16

time and raise their ugly heads again when least expected. It would be utter folly to forget that “Those
who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”43 To forgive is divine, forgetting is not.
A Churchillian response (as noted above) is called for. Joe Biden appears to remember the past rather
vividly. Like Franklin Roosevelt who led the US into World War II with great political sagacity, Biden is
leading the US in this crisis drawing inspiration from Roosevelt. Vladimir Putin and Joseph Stalin have
much in common in using bluster, bullying, brutality, and criminality. Indeed, Putin should be tried as
a war criminal and given the just desserts of a fair trial. Putin should not find a place to hide.
Restoration of Ukraine
If and when the war stops, Ukraine will find many sympathetic nations helping it to rebuild. One
wonders how many will see Russia as deserving of help. After all, post-World War II, it icily turned
down the offer to join in the Marshall Plan.44 Russia’s communist allies do not have the wherewithal
to restore Russia.
Windfall markets for arms merchants
The Russia-Ukraine war has spurred several countries to produce more missiles, tanks, artillery shells
and other munitions. Notable among them is South Korea. In 2022, “South Korea’s arms exports rose
140 percent to a record $17.3 billion, including deals worth $12.4 billion to sell tanks, howitzers, fighter
jets and multiple rocket launchers to Poland, one of Ukraine’s closest allies.”45 But South Korea is doing
it cautiously without annoying Russia. It has refused to sell directly to Ukraine. Instead, it is filling the
world’s rearmament gap and imposes strict export control rules on all its sales. Countries throughout
Latin America, Israel and others too have declined to send weapons directly to Ukraine. The plan
serves South Korea’s national and economic interests. The windfall arose because post-Cold War
American allies in Europe had scaled down their militaries and arms production capacities but South
Korea had maintained a robust capacity to guard against North Korea. Those supplying Ukraine since
Russia’s invasion, found their reserves depleting rapidly. Critical shortages began to develop. It also
created an opportunity to modernize by re-equipping and upgrading, especially in Eastern Europe,
which was sending its Soviet-era weapons to Ukraine. South Korea became a ready and enticing option.
In fact, the contracts for Poland’s tanks and howitzers were signed in late August 2022 with South
Korea’s top defense contractors. Deliveries began in little more than three months. Poland wants to
emulate and be the fourth-largest weapons exporter by 2027, after the US, Russia and France.46
“From 2017 to 2021, South Korea was the fastest-growing among the world’s top 25 arms exporters,
ranking No. 8 with a 2.8 percent share of the global market, according to the Stockholm International
Peace Research Institute. That was before it landed contracts with Poland, Egypt and the United Arab
Emirates last year.47 South Korea now has enviable design and manufacturing capabilities for midlevel
weapons like artillery, armored vehicles and tanks. The surge in sales has improved profitability due
to economies of scale in production.
43Santayana (1905). Santayana G. The Life of Reason Vol. 1: Reason in Common Sense. Constable, London1905.
44Marshall Plan (1948). On 03 April 1948, President Truman signed the Economic Recovery Act of 1948. It became known
as the Marshall Plan, named for Secretary of State George Marshall, who in 1947 proposed that the US provide economic
assistance to restore the economic infrastructure of postwar Europe. Marshall won the Nobel Peace Prize 1953 “for
proposing and supervising the plan for the economic recovery of Europe”.
45
Sang-Hun (2023).
46
Sang-Hun (2023).
47
Sang-Hun (2023).
17

Putin dramatically changes German foreign policy
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a swift military and foreign-policy awakening in Germany
following decades of post-World War II pacifism. It surprised the world, and most certainly Putin who
had assumed that Germany could be easily cowed down by simply suggesting clamp down on oil and
gas supplies to it. A grave miscalculation. Instead Putin now threatens to burn German Leopard 2 tanks
if they show up in Ukraine’s counteroffensive. In some months, the world will see how good Putin’s
threat is.
Japan too revises its military stance
A similar change in Japan’s military and foreign policy has been set in motion. Japan, which was
disallowed an offensive military since its surrender to Allied powers in 1945, is reviewing the situation
for at least two reasons. First, that naked aggression is back, thanks to Russia, a founder member of
the UN. Russia has brazenly shown that autocratic communist leaders are essentially hegemonic even
if they own huge territories and abundant natural resources. Prudence demands that Japan be ready
and armed for rapid retaliation. Second, China’s increasingly hegemonic approach to territorial rights
such as in the South and East China Seas shows China is a contemptuous bully that sniggers at
international law. The world is now ready and willing to unchain Japan from its surrender treaty
obligations and let it develop its own military for aggressive defence.
Biden quietly continues with Trump’s tough stance against China
What Biden’s predecessor Donald Trump once promised, Biden continues to deliver with great
sagacity. A bipartisan bill on infrastructure, stringent buy-American rules, reindustrialization, daring
Big Pharma, and massive investments in technology to outcompete China. Both Putin and Xi Jinping
are flummoxed. Biden is far more astute in geopolitics than they imagined. He is now also considering
reintroducing some of Trump’s harsh immigration policies, a stark reversal of a promise to adopt a
more compassionate approach to the border.48
The world is set to challenge Putin
The US is solidly supportive of Ukraine. Remarkably, Europe is still gung-ho in its support of Ukraine,
despite a harsh winter. Many countries have reduced their dependence on Russian energy with speed
and resolve. Populism in Europe is losing steam. Europe is becoming more cohesive and coherent in
dealing with Russia with every passing day. Russia’s isolation is increasing, and Russia friendly voices
are more circumspect. Chronic and hidden weaknesses in Russia’s military are now glaringly visible.
Russia is no longer a superpower, not even an ordinary power. It has now been reduced to depending
on massive levels of conscription and shameful levels of mercenaries. There is astounding asymmetry
in motivation and fighting spirit between Russian and Ukrainian troops. Russian soldiers wonder why
they are fighting, Ukrainians know exactly why they are! After all, the Ukrainians have vivid memories
of being the greatest victims of both Hitler and Stalin. Ukraine’s military is strengthening by the day in
terms of international support, weapons, logistics, tactics, strategy, and resolve to fight to the last
man. Can Russia really win? In a video address to the World Economic Forum in Switzerland on 18
January 2023, Volodymyr Zelensky made a passionate speech.
Tragedies are outpacing life. The tyranny is outpacing democracy. The time the free world uses to
think is used by the terrorist state to kill.49
48
NYT (2020306).
49 Keaton (2023).
18

The world is now intimately acquainted with barbaric communism. Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron
have pledged to support Ukraine’s fight ‘as long as it takes’ and to hold Moscow responsible for war
crimes.50 Putin’s insecurities have reached a level where on 18 March 2023 he felt compelled to sign
a law that extends the existing law that prohibits “discrediting” and spreading “fake news” about the
war to now include about volunteers and mercenaries engaged in the war, with the maximum
punishment up to 15 years in prison. Putin also signed a law that prohibits discrediting participants in
the so-called SMO. Violations of this law carries a punishment of up to seven years in prison.51 Can
Putin really suppress truth from history?
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s take
On 01 December 2022, Ukraine’s defence minister welcomed Germany’s recognition of the

Holodomor (death by hunger) of 1932-1933 as a genocide of the Ukrainian people and added that
Ukraine was waiting for Russia to be recognized as a “terrorist” state. On the other hand, Russian
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed the US had created an “existential” threat to Russia from
Ukraine. He also alleged that NATO was trying to drag India into an anti-Russian and anti-Chinese
alliance at a time when the West was attempting to squeeze Russian influence out. Obviously, Lavrov
is in a state of denial, and blind to the consequence of Putin’s ill-conceived and criminal SMO. He has
also accused NATO of starting tensions near China that posed risks for Russia. At a news conference,
he said, “The South China Sea is now becoming one of those regions where NATO is not averse, as
they once did in Ukraine, to escalating tensions.” He sees NATO’s expansion as reckless but he
overlooks the simple fact that peace loving countries flock to it to seek safety from communism.52
Communism believes in propaganda not evidence. All of Lavrov’s laments are laughable. They only
highlight the dire state in which Putin finds himself by his illegal, provocative, and criminal SMO. Had
it succeeded, Lavrov would have gloated about the supremacy of communism!
On 30 November 2022, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the EU would
try to set up a specialised court, backed by the UN, to investigate and prosecute possible war crimes
committed by the Russian military in Ukraine. Russia calls the proposal illegitimate and unacceptable.
Russia will undoubtedly veto the proposal rather than recuse itself from its deliberations.53
Putin’s ridiculous demands. Facts on the ground.
By the end of September 2022, Russia had illegally annexed four Ukrainian regions without controlling
any of them. Nine months into the invasion, Russia had lost more than half the land it had seized. On
01 December 2022, from the White House, President Biden with French President Emmanuel Macron
by his side, announced that he was ready to meet Putin, “if in fact there is an interest in him deciding
that he’s looking for a way to end the war.” Both Biden and Macron made clear that they would never
urge the Ukrainians to make a compromise “that will not be acceptable for them”. So far Putin’s
actions have been that of a coward—while his military retreats from southern Ukraine, he launches
widespread attacks on civilian infrastructure! So much for the macho Putin. He probably expects a
medal for his cowardice. On 02 December 2022, in an hour-long call, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz
spoke to President Putin for the first time since September 2022. Scholz urged Putin to find a
diplomatic solution that involved pulling Russian troops out of Ukraine “as soon as possible”. Putin
See also: WEF (20230118). “Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky delivers remarks on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nearly
one year into the war during an appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.”
50 Al Jazeera (20221201).
51 CNN (20230318).
52 Mohamed (2022).
53 Mohamed (2022).
19

responded by drawing attention to the “destructive line of Western states including Germany” and
that Kyiv completely rejected the idea of talks. Scholz effort too was in vain. Perhaps it should never
have been made in view of what Biden had said the previous day. By implication, negotiations are
possible only after Putin leaves Ukraine.54
Ukraine’s sources of weapons
On 20 January 2023, the US and other NATO countries pledged to ship a huge, wide-ranging package
of heavy weapons to Ukraine. The US package includes more than 20 separate military systems valued
at $2.5 billion. This was the 30th tranche of US military assistance since August 2021, and the only one
larger was a $3 billion assortment of weapons announced just two weeks ago. The US equipment
includes more than 500 armored vehicles such as Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles, Stryker Armored
Personnel Carriers and MRAPS that are resistant to landmines.55 This was a sharp signal to Russia that
NATO will not shy away from escalating tensions but fiercely support Ukraine against Russia’s
unprovoked aggression. The combined Western assistance will include more than two dozen different
types of hardware. These will shore up Ukraine’s air defenses against Russia’s missile strikes, and the
new armored vehicles will bolster Ukraine’s future offensives against Russian ground troops.
As of late March 2023, the fighting is most intense in and around the eastern town of Bakhmut , which
has been contested for months. Putin has set the conquest of the eastern provinces of Luhansk and
Donetsk, known collectively as the Donbas region, as one of his goals – and Bakhmut in Donetsk is key
to that. In February 2023, Zelensky called Bakhmut “our fortress”. In early March 2023, the fight over
Bakhmut had seemed to be reaching a climax. The fierceness of the battle made some speculated that
Ukraine was considering a tactical retreat. Instead, within days, Ukrainian assault brigades went on
the attack and appeared to push back Russian forces. “Bakhmut itself has little strategic value, but it
has taken on heightened symbolic importance for both sides. The battle has created a defining
moment — a marathon contest to see which army can break the other.”56 This battle seems to test
the endurance capability of some of the top forces in the Wagner Group, the private mercenary army
fighting on Russia’s behalf. Tactically, Ukraine seems to have avoided an “obvious trap” of sending a
large number of reserves into Bakhmut, “which is of far greater symbolic than military value,” while
gearing up for a broader offensive.57 However, Zelensky believes that Russian troops will have “open
road” to capture key cities in eastern Ukraine if they seize control of Bakhmut. In short, Zelensky told
CNN, “We understand that after Bakhmut they could go further. They could go to Kramatorsk, they
could go to Sloviansk, it would be open road for the Russians after Bakhmut to other towns in Ukraine,
in the Donetsk direction. That’s why our guys are standing there.” 58 Zelensky believes Russia’s
motivations are quite different. He said, “We understand what Russia wants to achieve there. Russia
needs at least some victory – a small victory – even by ruining everything in Bakhmut, just killing every
civilian there.” He said that if Russia is able to “put their little flag” on top of Bakhmut, it would help
“mobilize their society in order to create this idea they’re such a powerful army.”59 Ukraine, on the
other hand, sees an opportunity to grind down Russia’s best units, a much more intelligent and
strategic way of destroying the Russian military.
Bakhmut apart, Russia regularly unleashes air strikes in an attempt to knock out energy systems in
cities throughout Ukraine. It was anticipated that fighting would increase in the late winter or early
54 Kirby (2022).
55 See, e.g., Myre (2023).
56 Nirenberg (20230306).]
57 Economist (20230306).
58 Picheta (2023).
59 Picheta (2023).
20

spring, with either or both sides launching offensives. It happened. Ukraine’s primary focus remains
Crimea and is expected to be the end game. Without recapturing Crimea, Ukraine will never be safe
nor secure and nor will it be able to rebuild its economy. Crimea is a peninsula at the southern tip of
Ukraine. If recaptured by Ukraine, it can cut off Russian supply lines, and an isolated Crimea could
become vulnerable and difficult for Russia to hold on.
Apart from the massive military aid and strong support Ukraine continues to receive from NATO allies
like the US, UK and Germany, Russia too (unintentionally) has left behind huge quantities of its own
weapons and supplies during their massive retreats.60 Most of the advanced Russian armored vehicles
(including the T-90M tank) were captured during Ukraine’s tremendously successful surprise northern
counteroffensive that forced a hasty Russian withdrawal from the Kharkiv region in September 2022.
Ukrainians have also innovatively converted captured Soviet-era weapons, e.g., converting a T-62 tank
into an evacuation vehicle that can pull heavily armored tanks when they get stuck. In fact, Ukraine
has built facilities (including some by private companies) for refurbishing Russian military equipment.
These operations are usually funded through donations from organizations like the Prytula Foundation.
They have taken up the work of refurbishing captured Russian military equipment, including tanks,
armored vehicles, missile systems, etc., which have then made their way to some of Ukraine’s
deadliest battle zones, including Bakhmut, Kramatorsk, Luhansk, and Svatove.
Zelensky globe trots to hero’s welcome
The first was a surprise visit to the US (21 December 2022)61 with an address to Congress and a stop
in Poland on the way back. The second, again a surprise visit, to Europe: the UK (08 February 2023)
which included an address to the Parliament to thank Britain for its robust military support and a blunt
demand for fighter jets, then an audience with King Charles III (even here he wore his familiar military
green). Zelensky presented the speaker of the House of Commons in London with a helmet of a
Ukrainian pilot; the message on the helmet: “We have freedom; give us wings to protect it.” Prime
minister Rishi Sunak assured “Nothing is off the table”62 as far as assistance to Ukraine is concerned.
Neither side in the war has achieved air superiority. Russia’s presumed air superiority has turned out
to be a grand myth. This is not surprising. Deploying fighter aircraft requires not just extensive and
gruelling training of pilots but also highly specialized personnel to service the fighter after every sortie
and for periodic maintenance. Therefore, Ukraine’s Air Force has kept ready a list of daring pilots who
could train on Western jets. Pilots of this caliber are presently flying old Soviet jets on dangerous
combat sorties. Every pilot lost is an unaffordable loss. Fierce dogfights were fought over Ukraine in
the first weeks of the war, both sides flying Soviet- or Russian-designed jets. Very soon, air defense
missiles cleared the skies. The experience so far has been the superiority of ground-based air defense
missiles over airplanes, drones and cruise missiles. Along the front line, both sides fly only short sorties
into enemy territory and even then, planes are routinely shot down. So far, the role of the air force
has been small. Faster and more versatile western fighters with highly trained pilots may decisively
tilt the balance in Ukraine’s favor. The emphasis will be on the quality of pilot training and less on the
state-of-the-art technology embedded in the fighter. It is now clear that Russian pilots are woefully
trained. Ukrainian pilots trained in the West may make a crucial difference, given their patriotic fervor.
Training and delivery of jet fighters is a lengthy process. It cannot be shortened as Russia has already
realized, more so in the present era of highly effective antiaircraft weapons. Fighter pilots in ground
60 Kadam (20230204).
61 Hindu (20221222). “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s highly sensitive trip was taking place after 10 months of a
brutal war with Russia that has seen tens of thousands of casualties on both sides.” “President Joe Biden and Congress
responded with billions in new assistance and a pledge to help Ukraine pursue a ‘just peace.’”
62 NYT (20230208a).
21

attack missions run extreme risk against well defended targets. Unmanned aircraft and long-range
precision rockets are therefore favored weapons.
Zelensky’s trips abroad are few and secretively planned. In his public appearances and private
meetings with world leaders he exudes enormous confidence and patriotic fervor (Putin and Xi Jinping
exude arrogance, bad breeding, false bravado, and facial expressions that mask deceitfulness. 63 )
Throughout the war, Zelensky has strived to stay in Ukraine, bolster the morale of his army, and exude
a feeling that he shares his people’s fate. On the second day (25 February 2022) of the Russian invasion,
he set the tone with a defiant video shot on his cellphone that showed him and his advisers in front
of the presidency, saying: “We are in Kyiv. We are protecting Ukraine.” His US trip, soon after Ukraine’s
two successful counter-offensives that regained territory in the northeast and the south, highlighted
Ukraine’s progress to allies and bolstered his pleas for more aid. The rationale behind his visits:
After returning from the United States, Mr. Zelensky said that he would travel abroad only to mark
important milestones in relations with Ukraine’s allies in the war. A trip to an allied country, he said,
would be taken only if the armed forces “absolutely directly depend on the results of the visit, if one
or another of our partners is ready to take the lead.” In those circumstances, he said, a visit could
happen as “an exception to the general practice of wartime” when he would remain inside
Ukraine.64
Zelensky made the US trip after making a daring and dangerous trip on 20 December 2022 to what
he called the hottest spot on the 1,300-kilometer (800-mile) front line of the war, the city of Bakhmut
in Ukraine’s contested Donetsk province. He praised Ukrainian troops for their “courage, resilience
and strength” as artillery boomed in the background.65 In his next trip abroad, he went to London and
then hopped to Paris to meet French and German leaders on 08 February 2023. He visited Brussels on
09 February 2023 for meetings with European Union leaders before returning to Ukraine. In Brussels,
European Council chief Charles Michel tweeted above a picture of him shaking Zelensky's hand,
alongside European Commission head Ursula von der Leyen, “Welcome home, welcome to the EU."
Emmanuel Macron and Zelensky flew together from Paris to Brussels. Zelensky urged the European
Council, comprising 27 leaders of the EU’s member states, “to speed up arms deliveries to Ukraine.”
Britain has remained one of the largest weapons suppliers to Ukraine. It began with Boris Johnson and
has continued under his two successors, Liz Truss and now Rishi Sunak. Boris Johnson, with a sense of
history, likely wanted to follow in the footsteps of his hero, Winston Churchill in his role in World War
II in close alliance with the US. The US remains the largest international donor providing, as of early
February 2023, $26.7 billion in military aid, to Ukraine’s military effort. Britain is the second largest,
providing $2.8 billion in 2022 and a pledge to match that in 2023.66
From the beginning, Zelensky has steadfastly held that “just peace” is possible only if there are no
compromises. The war would end once Ukraine’s sovereignty, freedom and territorial integrity were
restored, and payback for all the damages inflicted by Russian aggression was made. “There can’t be
any ‘just peace’ in the war that was imposed on us.” In Biden’s view, Russia was “trying to use winter
as a weapon, but Ukrainian people continue to inspire the world.” Later, in a joint news conference,
63 It now appears that Putin likely approved the supply of the missile system that brought down Flight MH17. See: Méheut
(2023).
64 NYT (20230208b). “Zelensky began his surprise trip to Europe in London, then went to Paris.  British Prime Minister
Rishi Sunak called [his] country’s plan to train Ukrainian pilots on NATO-standard jets a ‘first step,’ strongly suggesting it
could provide Ukraine with advanced British fighter planes in the future.” He added, “Nothing is off the table.” See also:
NYT (20230208a).
65 Hindu (20221222).
66 NYT (20230208b).
22

Biden said Vladimir Putin has “no intention of stopping this cruel war.” 67 Russia’s response to
Zelensky’s visit to UK is provided in Appendix A.
Biden’s optimism
In his State of the Union Message, 07 February 2023, Joe Biden made a few remarks that were
messages to Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. It is quite different in tone and content from communist
propaganda. Biden said,
Our strength — our strength is not just the example of our power, but the power of our
example. Let’s remember, the world is watching.
I spoke from this chamber one year ago, just days after Vladimir Putin unleashed his brutal attack
against Ukraine, a murderous assault, evoking images of death and destruction Europe suffered in
World War Two. Putin’s invasion has been a test for the ages — a test for America, a test for the
world. Would we stand for the most basic of principles? Would we stand for sovereignty? Would
we stand for the right of people to live free of tyranny? Would we stand for the defense of
democracy? (Applause.) For such defense matters to us because it keeps peace and prevents open
season on would-be aggressors that threatens our prosperity. (Applause.) One year later, we know
the answer. Yes, we would. And we did. We did. (Applause.) And together, we did what America
always does at our best. We led. We united NATO. We built a global coalition. We stood against
Putin’s aggression. We stood with the Ukrainian people.
Tonight, we’re once again joined by Ukrainians’ Ambassador to the United States. She represents
not her — just her nation but the courage of her people. Ambassador is — our Ambassador is here,
united in our — we’re united in our support of your country.
Will you stand so we can all take a look at you? (Applause.) Thank you. Because we’re going to
stand with you as long as it takes. (Applause.) Our nation is working for more freedom, more dignity,
and more — more peace, not just in Europe, but everywhere.
Before I came to office, the story was about how the People’s Republic of China was increasing its
power and America was failing in the world. Not anymore. We made clear and I made clear in my
personal conversations, which have been many, with President Xi that we seek competition, not
conflict. But I will make no apologies that we’re investing and — to make America stronger.
Investing in American innovation and industries that will define the future that China intends to be
dominating. Investing in our alliances and working with our allies to protect advanced technologies
so they will not be used against us. Modernizing our military to safeguard stability and determine —
deter aggression.
Today, we’re in the strongest position in decades to compete with China or anyone else in the
world. Anyone else in the world. (Applause.) And I’m committed — I’m committed to work with
China where we can advance American interests and benefit the world. But make no mistake about
it: As we made clear last week, if China threatens our sovereignty, we will act to protect our
country. And we did. (Applause.)
Look, let’s be clear: Winning the competition should unite all of us. We face serious challenges across
the world. But in the past two years, democracies have become stronger, not weaker. Autocracies
have grown weaker, not stronger. Name me a world leader who’d change places with Xi
Jinping. Name me one. Name me one.
67 Hindu (20221222).
23

America is rallying the world to meet those challenges — from climate to global health to food
insecurity to terrorism to territorial aggression. Allies are stepping up, spending more, and doing
more. Look, the bridges we’re forming between partners in the Pacific and those in the
Atlantic. And those who bet against America are learning how wrong they are. It’s never, ever been
a good bet to bet against America. Never. (Applause.) 
With democracy, everything is possible. Without it, nothing is.  Every generation of Americans
have faced a moment where they have been called to protect our democracy, defend it, stand up
for it. And this is our moment. My fellow Americans, we meet tonight at an inflection point, one of
those moments that only a few generations ever face, where the direction we now take is going to
decide the course of this nation for decades to come. We’re not bystanders of history. We’re not
powerless before the forces that confront us. It’s within our power of We the People. We’re facing
the test of our time. We have to be the nation we’ve always been at our best: optimistic, hopeful,
forward-looking. A nation that embraces light over dark, hope over fear, unity over division, stability
over chaos. We have to see each other not as enemies, but as fellow Americans. We’re a good
people. (Applause.) The only nation in the world built on an idea — the only one. Other nations
are defined by geography, ethnicity, but we’re the only nation based on an idea that all of us, every
one of us, is created equal in the image of God. A nation that stands as a beacon to the world. A
nation in a new age of possibilities. 
But I’ve never been more optimistic about our future — about the future of America. We just have
to remember who we are. We’re the United States of America. And there’s nothing — nothing
beyond our capacity if we do it together. (Applause.) 68
While Xi Jinping does his war dance in the Straits of Taiwan, and Vladimir Putin continues with his
reckless war that destroys his own country, the US watches and revs up its industrial production, tests
its military weapons against those of Russia, and waits for Russia’s military to exhaust itself, before
NATO moves in to end communism.
Ukraine enters year 2 of the war
Zelensky pledged to push for victory in 2023 while Moscow told the world to accept “the realities” of
its war. At a ceremony in Kyiv’s St Sophia Square, Zelenskyy bestowed medals on soldiers and the
mother of one killed. In a Televised address, he said, “We have become one family … Ukrainians have
sheltered Ukrainians, opened their homes and hearts to those who were forced to flee the war. We
withstand all threats, shelling, cluster bombs, cruise missiles, kamikaze drones, blackouts and cold …
And we will do everything to gain victory this year.” In the past year, Ukrainians proved themselves to
be invincible during “a year of pain, sorrow, faith and unity”.69 Ukraine is still defiant, still seeking an
independent and democratic Ukraine. It will get there.
The US defence department said, “One year on, the commitment of the United States, together with
some 50 countries who have rallied to rush urgently needed assistance to Ukraine, has only
strengthened.” The sanctions and export controls heaped on Russia have degraded its ability to wage
war, to deprive it of the goods it needs to supply its military. US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen,
in a televised address, said, “Over 9,000 Russian tanks have been destroyed over the last year and the
biggest tank factories are shut down because they are unable to gain access to the input that they
need to repair or rebuild tanks.” Ukraine, on the other hand, has started receiving modern tanks from
its well wishers. Ominous news for Putin. All that Russia has been able to do so far is find partnerships
68 See: Biden (20230207).

69 Al Jazeera (20230224a).
24

with North Korea and Iran to keep its war machine going. Rather pathetic for a ‘superpower’ on a SMO
that was to last only a few days!
There can be no doubt that Ukraine’s resistance to Putin’s brutal and barbaric assault has transformed
Europe more profoundly than any event since the end of the Cold War in 1989. The EU was created
on the ideal that economic exchanges, trade and interdependence were better guarantees against
future wars. As the EU grew along lines of expectations, its people increasingly took peace for granted,
and military expenditure was complacently seen as needless expenditure. Putin, at one stroke on 24
February 2022, jolted the world by letting it know Stalinism was not yet dead, neither was communism,
nor ardent haters of liberal democracy. The US, and especially its European allies (which awoke from
a slumber and momentary disorientation) became acutely aware that military power is needed for
security and it was needed immediately. And most importantly that the mantle of leadership to resist
Putin must be worn by the US. There now looms before Putin the nightmarish prospect of frontline
states intent on Russia’s complete defeat, and the possible threat of a US led attack on the political
and military front using a convenient pretext. Just as the era of the forced hijab is on its way out in
defiance of orthodox, entrenched Mullahs in Iran, so on a far more vehement scale is the Putin led
brutal communism imposing its will ruthlessly on Ukraine is on its way out. The writing is on the wall.
3 Where is the war heading?

Predicting the outcomes of wars and how they may shape the future is dicey. Even a Putinian SMO
meant to be a cakewalk can turn into an awesome war. Ukraine is not only winning but also hoping to
regain control of Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. Ukraine believes it can take back all its
territories annexed by Putin so far. If that happens, Putin’s life will no longer be safe. Putin has
therefore decided to wait out the clock by amassing conscripts as canon fodder till Ukraine is
exhausted, while Zelensky is racing against the clock with bold strategies and tactics with massive
support from the US and its allies. This war may continue for a very long time and yet may conclude
abruptly with Russia defeated. Putin’s swagger and boast no longer permits him to back down. He
simply cannot afford to lose Crimea without losing his head. That is his Achilles’ heel.
To save his own life, Putin will recklessly send to death hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers
rather than accept defeat, relinquish his office or fade into oblivion. That is how a reptilian mind works.
Communism does not easily, if ever, forgive losers, especially of an unwanted war. In his state-of-the-
nation address on 21 February 2023 Putin said that Kyiv's “Western handlers” had pushed Russia into
conflict with Ukraine and that Western leaders were trying “to transform the local conflict into a global
confrontation”. He responded because it was “a matter of our country’s existence.” It takes a genius
to convert a military stroll into Kyiv into an existential crisis for a military ‘superpower’ within a matter
of a few months. It now appears that only dramatic options for ending the war exist. Russia’s
immediate concern is how to end this war before the Russian military collapses. In stark terms, “How
should Putin be removed from power?” In Communist countries, with rare exceptions, this is no easy
task. Putin, the foxy braggadocio, like a real bully, never fails to tell the world that he has nukes and
will use them. Will his military and fellow Russians stand for it? Can the public raise its voice and stage
a Tiananmen Square protest? Ask Xi Jinping!
Like all bullies, Putin has put the preservation of his life above the existence of his country rather than
the patriotic converse. Historically, such leaders have been dealt with derision. For example, (1) a coup
resulting in their imprisonment or even death; (2) or they cut a deal and agree to turn over power in
return for safe passage for their and their cronies to a country willing to host them. Putin is unlikely
to find any hospitable host; or (3) kept out of sight feigning a health crisis that requires him to
25

recuperate in a suitable place70. So the most likely way this war may end is that Putin is replaced or
that he dies, is killed, is gone.
Russia’s assault on Ukraine has been brutal and grinding. Despite its more recent and tragic “human
wave attacks” resulting in Ukrainian soldiers inundating field hospitals, Ukraine heroically faces such
onslaughts and repeatedly seeks more and more advanced weaponry from its Western friends to
march on. The enormous brutality and the scale of the carnage Putin’s SMO has unleashed makes one
wonder if he has anything called empathy for fellow humans. He seems to be filled with pure and
cancerous malice, jealousy, and hatred for liberal democracy. He wants to turn time back rather than
go forward. In such circumstances, decision making must necessarily become a game of dice. Hence
pillorying decision makers for decisions made with good intentions is unjustified, especially by
armchair pundits who have never risked their life in combat. Yes, there have been snide remarks about
Washington waiting ambivalently for months before sending certain weapons (e.g., precision HIMARS
rockets, the Patriot missile-defense system and tanks). Here is a view of a combatant, “I just want to
survive the coming weeks. How will a tank that might arrive in half a year help me? Especially if I don’t
even know if the electronics will remain stable or whether it will break down under fire? I need simple
things, but I need them now: night-vision capability, an infrared camera and more powerful target
sights!”71 This is heart rending, is very reasonable, is the need of the hour, and may even decide the
fate of the battle. The fact is, success is not guaranteed. On the whole, battles produce statistical
outcomes, and hence decisions are made keeping possibilities in mind. Individual pleas no matter how
heart rending, must give way to emotionless action based on statistical reasoning. It is not about right
or wrong, it is about survival by winning and sometimes about dying with honor for a nation where
some become soldiers so that others may live unscathed.
Delays are bound to happen because sophisticated weapons may fall into Russian hands. Blinkered
armchair pundits are rarely aware of the possible disastrous consequences of this in the future. They
see an obvious immediate benefit (and an opportunity for self-promotion via the media) but rarely, if
ever, their consequences. For example, they do not understand the content of Darwin’s law of ‘survival
of the fittest’. It is Nature ‘red in tooth and claw’. It is not about morality, ethics, and empathy. In the
game of survival, the meek do not inherit the earth, they die. The ruthless, the clever, those whom
luck favors their prepared mind, and stuff of this kind matter and matter the most. Sometimes waiting
and watching for an opportunity, or creating an opportunity to do so, is the smartest thing to do. There
is a big difference between strategy and tactic. The role of presidents is choosing strategy. Those
choices may sometimes require that some soldiers must die to maintain a strategic advantage. Putin’s
disadvantage is that he doesn’t have a war strategy, hence tactics are not networked to it. Putin only
has an ambition for himself, not for Russia. Russia is only a vehicle for his ambition. That is why Ukraine
will win because Zelensky and his fellow country(wo)men embody Ukraine. Zelensky is at the service
of his nation, not the other way round. Putin and his subjects are poles apart. It showed in his Covid-
distancing from fellow humans.
When to provoke and when to act on provocation is an art. Till now, Biden and Zelensky have played
the game far better than Putin (with Xi Jinping as a reluctant accomplice) has. The reason why Biden
and Zelensky will win and not Putin and Xi Jinping is that the former duo instinctively understand the
70 There is believable speculation that Putin is under Western cancer therapies that are not available in Russia. See, e.g.,
NDTV, 17 February 2023. https://www.ndtv.com/feature/video-of-vladimir-putins-unusual-feet-movement-raises-concern-
about-his-health-3800705
71 A quote from a Ukrainian tank commander serving near Bakhmut as told to Reuter. Asked if he eagerly awaits the arrival
of German Leopard II tanks. One can see the anguish, the desperation, the urgency, and the balancing of life and death,
and perhaps the futility of it all. One wonders, where is the omnipotent, omniscient, omnipresent God. He created the
world of predators and preys. See FGB (20230225).
26

predator-prey game far better than the latter. The difference is highly visible in their body language.
Biden is ready to spring when the opportunity presents itself. It will, because Putin is frightened and
getting impatient. Putin fears for his life, not the future of Russia. The future of Russia lies in Biden’s
and Zelensky’s hands and their successors. The devastation Russia has faced in the past year will
become evident only when Putin no longer presides over Russia. It will be an eye-opening mess. The
present stalemate (as of March 2023) is temporary. Once the new tanks, and the rest arrive in Ukraine
along with the soldiers trained to use them, a new and energetic phase in Ukraine’s strategy will unfold.
Putin’s biggest problem will be defending Crimea. Everything else will be secondary.
The death, devastation and grief Putin has showered on Ukraine has brought Ukraine’s remarkable
resilience to the fore. Surely without intent, Putin boosted Ukraine’s democratic governance.
Ukrainians now love Zelensky more than ever before, have great faith in his government, rely heavily
on its services—for instance, police who clear areas after a missile attack—and have banded together
in support of their functioning. Once they withstood Russia’s initial onslaught, Ukrainians quickly
developed a starry-eyed vision for their future and what needs to be done to rebuild their country.
Since the Euromaidan protests of 2013 that eventually ousted the pro-Russian Ukrainian president
Viktor Yanukovych, politically Ukraine has been moving toward the West. It is now solidly pro-West.
So solid that more than 8 million Ukrainian refugees spread out across Europe, helter-skelter since
Russian troops showed up in Kyiv on 24 February 2022. Many are now in a state of limbo. Apart from
causing the exodus, Putin actively disrupted global food and energy prices with his bullying tactics.
The disruptions caused customers to transition away from Russian fossil fuels (and fossil fuels in
general) more or less permanently. Geopolitically, the war rattled NATO, the EU and the UN, and
forced some countries to take sides in ways that have escalated some tensions and caused some
diplomatic shifts. When such tremors and tectonic shifts happen, the predator-prey model serves as
a more reliable guide in assessing and anticipating the future than the exalted, media savvy pundits
who profess erudition. I do not see long years of heavily armed stand-off. I see a new Trumpian style
bashing of communism whenever and wherever communism displays its bullying activities. Bullying
does not deserve the respect of a war. What the world now needs is the dismantling of the UN and a
new world organization ushered in where Putinian and Xi Jinpingian bullying is not acceptable
behavior, leave alone sanctified by veto powers. Trump was ahead of his time when he suggested that
the US should pull out of the UN.72 Perhaps now is the time.
Russia too has faced enormous damages to its basic socio-economic infrastructure but has kept it
hidden from view. They will show up in the future. It will then likely disrupt the existing social contract
in which subdued Russians ask few political questions publicly, because in neighboring Ukraine a
vigorous liberal democratic civil society has emerged. That Putin had not anticipated such a scenario
is very unlikely (bullies recognize such threats very quickly). The real reason for the SMO may well
have been to prevent such an event occurring at all. After all liberal values had begun spreading in
Russia, insidiously imported with Coca Cola, McDonald, Bistro, et al. Xi Jinping also needs to watch
carefully. Another Tiananmen Square incident may result in his hanging upside down in the Square
Mussolini style! History has a nasty habit of repeating itself when dealing with tyrants. An out of
control crowd is always to be feared. Even Roman emperors knew that!
Perhaps the time has come to heed Walt,
As the world moves toward multipolarity, alliances will only matter more. In an age when no single
country stands unchallenged atop the international system, success will depend on rival powers’
72 See, e.g., Finoh (2018).; Lee, and Lederman (2018); BBC (20180831).
27

ability to form a coherent and capable grouping and exercise power collectively. Above all, the
invasion of Ukraine and its aftermath show that leaders court disaster if they fail to understand why
alliances form and how they work.73
Putin is running scared
Before the invasion on 24 February 2022, Russia controlled approximately 16,000 square miles of
Ukraine, which increased to 62,000 square miles − about 27% of the country's land − in the weeks
following the invasion. In the second half of 2022, Ukraine launched a determined counter offensive
that successfully regained about 29,000 square miles by November 2022. This included the significant
southern city of Kherson. Russia’s control reduced to 18%, primarily comprising the Donbas’ two
provinces − Donetsk and Luhansk − which it had annexed in September 2022. Controlling these
provinces have proven immensely problematic because of the immense support Ukraine continues to
receive from the US, UK, EU, and NATO. On the first anniversary of the war, they all reaffirmed their
commitment to Ukraine for providing as much aid as possible, as long as needed. The US announced
a $10 billion aid package, while European countries are earnestly gathering tanks and other weapons
to supply Ukraine. These developments have made Putin’s position precarious due to widespread
anger over huge casualties, losses and stalemate on the ground. Putin had badly misread the West’s
resolve to stand up to him. Even worse he did not know his army's depth of incompetence.74
A former chief of the Moscow division of the Federal Security Service (FSB), General Yevgeny
Savostyanov said, “Putin perfectly understands the mood of people who have lost everything because
of him. He understands this anger can find a way out, so he keeps them away. Putin is now terribly
scared. He understands that he is in trouble.  Now, he is in such a psychological state that he is
clinging to any opportunity to win.” The FSB too misled Putin that his forces would seize Kyiv in just
three days, and that Ukrainians would welcome Russian soldiers with open arms.75
Fareed Zakaria reports an unusual observation from New York Times reporter Valerie Hopkins:
As Russian casualties mount, is Putin’s war becoming less popular, domestically? Fareed talks with
New York Times reporter Valerie Hopkins who says the opposite is true: As Russians die on the
battlefields of Ukraine, Putin’s war seems to be getting more popular in Russia as a result.76
How is this possible when Russian mothers are surely grieving and men are fleeing to other countries
to avoid getting conscripted? One has to be deaf, blind, and demented not to realize that if Russia
loses the war (as it is becoming more and more likely with each passing day), Russia will likely have to
pay for the rebuilding of Ukraine. That payment will almost certainly mean that frozen Russian assets
abroad will be used in addition to whatever funds Russia may garner from domestic sources. The
stupendous devastation Putin has wrought, paying for that damage will be colossal. Ultimately, it will
be the Russians who will have to pay. Russia will become destitute. Surely Russian’s are not that dumb
not to realize that. The world will see every Russian with contempt and pity. Even to a communist that
surely matters. For Putin’s atrocities, ultimately the Russian people are accountable. They chose Putin
as their leader ‘democratically’ whatever that may mean in communism’s rigged voting system. They
will now have to pay for his swagger, atrocities, and the uprooting of millions of innocent lives.
73 Walt (2023).
74 India Today (2020225).
75 Stewart, and Jewers (2023).
76 FGB (20230226).
28

There can be no negotiated peace with Putin. Andrei Illarionov, a former economic adviser of Putin,
sums it neatly,
 but we have an historic record of sitting down with Putin and making agreements with him.
Putin violated all the documents. The agreement on the creation of the Commonwealth of
Independent States, the bilateral treaty between Russia and Ukraine, the treaty on the
internationally recognised border of Russia and Ukraine, the UN charter, the Helsinki Act of 1975,
the Budapest Memorandum. And so on. There is no document he would not violate.77
Rosenberg lucidly provides the context:
Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has brought death and destruction to Russia's neighbour. It has
resulted in huge military casualties for his own country: some estimates put the number of dead
Russian soldiers in the tens of thousands.
Hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens have been drafted into the army and Russian prisoners
(including convicted killers) have been recruited to fight in Ukraine. Meanwhile, the war has
impacted energy and food prices around the world and continues to threaten European and global
security.
All problems of Titanic proportions.78
As President of Russia, Putin must obviously be responsible and answerable. Putin’s war plans were
riddled with misassumptions and miscalculations.
The Kremlin had expected its “special military operation” to be lightning fast. Within weeks, it
thought, Ukraine would be back in Russia’s orbit. President Putin had seriously underestimated
Ukraine’s capacity to resist and fight back, as well as the determination of Western nations to
support Kyiv.
Russia’s leader has yet to acknowledge, though, that he made a mistake by invading Ukraine. Mr
Putin’s way is to push on, to escalate, to raise the stakes.79
The situation is unusually complex. A war criminal is the head of a nuclear power state. That state has
a highly privileged position in the United Nation’s Security Council with veto powers, and is allied with
a similarly privileged communist power, China, that does not hide its ambitions of dominating the
world with superior military force once it acquires it. With the fall of Putin, Russia will fall and with it
communism will collapse, and with it China will collapse. China is therefore left with one option to
save itself − broker a peace between Russia and Ukraine! China’s peace proposal is all about preserving
Xi Jinping, China, and communism, in that order. The falling domino theory is now in play. The fall will
begin with the fall of Putin.
3.1 China’s peace proposal

China’s peace proposal80 is a hoax. Like its weather balloons, this too is a balloon to see which way the
wind is blowing. China has released its much-anticipated position paper on the Russia-Ukraine war. It
calls for a ceasefire and talks between the two parties. Its 12-point paper,81 timed to coincide with the
first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of neighbouring Ukraine, piously says conflict and war “benefit
77 Rosenberg (2023). An excellent article that luridly explains the situation.

80 Al Jazeera (20230224b).
81 MFA-PRC (2023).
29

no one”. It noted, “All parties must stay rational and exercise restraint, avoid fanning the flames and
aggravating tensions, and prevent the crisis from deteriorating further or even spiraling out of control.”
China’s wolf warriorship and its covetous eyes on Taiwan with frequent fly-past of fighters and
bombers over the Taiwan Strait apparently benefits everyone!
China’s behavior related to the origin of COVID-19 is so exemplary that it has induced the French
President Emmanuel Macron (age 45 years) to respond with school boyish eagerness to visit China in
April 2023 and give credence to a communist propaganda trap.82 When will Macron learn from history
that duplicity is the standard operating procedure and wile in communism, to be ruthlessly used at
home and abroad when the opponent has a winning hand? Macron is well advised to read Mao’s Little
Red Book and also Zelensky’s irrevocable conditions for ending the war. One must very clearly
understand China is not a neutral party. Xi Jinping well knows that If Russia is brought to heel, collapse
of communism will almost certainly follow. His concern is not Ukraine; his concern is the fall of Russia
and with it the end of communism and China. It is not for nothing that China just recently scuttled a
joint statement83 condemning the war at a G20 gathering in India. One may then wonder why Zelensky
wants to meet Xi Jinping to discuss the Chinese peace plan?84 The answer: Zelensky wants to assess Xi
Jinping in a face-to face meeting. One can rest assured Xi will not risk such a meeting. Should the
reason be spelt out? Tongue-in-cheek, Zelensky said, “China started talking about Ukraine, and that’s
not bad. It seems to me that there is respect for our territorial integrity, security issues. We need to
work with China on this point. … Our task is to unite everyone in order to isolate one.” So good luck
to Macron.
More relevant at this time is what NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said. In his view, in
diplomatic language, China was not well placed to negotiate an end to the war. “China doesn’t have
much credibility because they have not been able to condemn the illegal invasion of Ukraine,” he told
reporters, adding that Beijing had signed an agreement with Putin days before the invasion, pledging
a “no limits” partnership. China is obviously not an honest broker. Further, the US has also said China
was “considering providing lethal support”85 to Russia, a claim that Beijing has denied. What should
one believe? US intelligence reports which have been very credible so far or Xi Jinping the communist
allied to comrade Putin, who with swash-buckling ease threatens the use of nuclear weapons? How
do nuclear weapons fit into a minor SMO? There is some problem with Putin’s nomenclature.
Apparently, misunderstanding the nomenclature can land you in jail in Russia. 86 There is a war of
words involved too! Yet, Putin himself has used the word ‘war’ for his Special Military Operation’!87
3.2 We live in a highly complex world

There is an uncanny similarity in the way most nations are governed in a political system. Almost all
political systems choose their political leaders in a ‘democratic’ way (even the communists, but in a
82 Al Jazeera (20230226). “French president’s announcement comes after China published a 12-point position paper calling
for a truce, talks in Ukraine.”
83 Slow (2023). Beijing declined to accept parts of a G20 statement that deplored Russia's aggression “in the strongest
terms”. Moscow said “anti-Russian” Western countries had “destabilised” the G20.
84 Wright, and Lukiv (20230225). When asked about the Chinese plan, Joe Biden told ABC News on Friday (24 December
2022): “Putin's applauding it, so how could it be any good?”

85 Al Jazeera (20230223).
86 Simon (2022). “In order to control what the Russian public knows about invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin
has signed a law that imposes stiff sentences on journalists who air ‘false information.’”
87 Fung (2022). In a significant statement on 22 December 2022, Putin told reporters, “Our aim is not to fan the flames of
this military conflict, on the contrary, it is to end this war.” He claimed that he had no choice but to protect Russians living
in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Calculations from Newsweek estimate that Russia’s death toll is expected to
pass 100,000 troop losses on 22 December 2022..
30

highly rigged undemocratic way). Since the time of Plato, the core of the democratic process is that
the many will elect the few who will govern. The many vote, the elected then decide the mode of
governance using multilayered networks of institutions and ensuring that they are populated with
loyal employees. The most important and fundamental layer assures the citizens of their security and
safety. In return, the citizens agree to limit some of their freedom by accepting, binding, and
conforming themselves to the rule of law as decreed. Within the law, some exceptional powers of
governance reside only with the government, e.g., the power to deny freedom to others, to imprison,
to punish, and even kill by execution. In the name of national security, they reserve to themselves the
sovereign right to wage war. Even though members of the UN have agreed to a code to govern this
right in the UN Charter, the Charter is a voluntary document and its infringement does not invoke
automatic punishment, especially if the infringer is a powerful state. Domestically, the government
commits to preserve peace, prevent crime, and disorder, and to save its citizens in times of grave peril
(e.g., alien military attack, natural disaster, etc.).
There is a second layer where the government commits itself to take care of society’s common
problems and needs, e.g., education, healthcare, care for the elderly and disabled, protect the natural
environment, facilitate and provide for growth and employment in the economy. This layer affects
everyone in society. When voters cast their vote, they do so almost exclusively based on the
declarations and promises candidates make in managing these problems. The central message a
candidate seeking to get elected sends out is that if you elect me I will address these problems better
than my opponents. Charisma, theatrics, and even luck matter. It is a game of loaded dice. For most
voters, election is a spectator sport because there is an inherent passivity encoded in the DNA of
ordinary people (more than 99% of the population) that makes them by nature idle and feckless.
As usual, people derive information and form opinions by focusing on the intentions and expressed
opinions of a very small group of people in the top echelons of power and a slightly larger group of
their supporters and prominent opponents. Beyond that it becomes an unmanageable cacophony.
Within this elite group, betrayals, switching of loyalties, and deaths determine the dynamics of how a
nation is governed. The rest are the onlookers some of whom express their opinionated views about
the doings and undoings of the elite. The vast majority simply get on with their lives unconcerned.
Generations
Since the times of Plato (born 428/427 BCE, Athens, Greece—died 348/347, Athens) the world has
changed enormously, especially since World War II ended in 1945. During his period, the world
population was around 160 million, today it is 8 billion! The world began to industrialize during 1760
– 1840, more than 2000 years after Plato. Important historical markers from our recent past include
the Wright brothers flying their aeroplane on 17 December 1903; World War I (28 July 1914 – 11
November 1918); World War II (1939-1945); Neil Armstrong stepping on the Moon’s surface on July
20, 1969; Globalization (economic, cultural, and political) began in the early 1990s; The Millennials
emerged: Born 1981-1996 (27-42 years old); Generation Z emerged: Born 1997–2010 (11 to 26 years
old). Our workplaces are now cauldrons comprising 5 generations (Gen Z, to Baby Boomers)! Plato
could never have imagined the complex, chaotic world we now live in.
In Plato’s time, one could hardly notice any change in lifestyle in a century. The knowledge of a gray
haired person was valuable and considered as wisdom by the youngsters. Now the youngsters must
seek wisdom not from the aged but from the young and from AI apps! Fairy tales of Plato’s time are
ordinary tales in today’s. Putin’s actions must be viewed from the perspective of Joe Biden (Born: 20
November 1942 (age 80 years)), Vladimir Putin (Born: 7 October 1952 (age 70 years)), and Volodymyr
31

Zelensky (Born: 25 January 1978 (age 45 years)). In Plato’s time, the three would have had much in
common in their view of the world. Not so today.
Putin is surprisingly entrenched in the past, going back to Peter the Great, Tsar of Russia who ruled
the Tsardom of Russia from 7 May [O.S. 27 April] 1682 to 1721 and subsequently the Russian Empire
until his death in 1725, jointly ruling with his elder half-brother, Ivan V until 1696. With such
anachronism, Putin can hardly even relate to Biden, leave alone Zelensky! Biden, on the other hand,
has the pulse of Zelensky to a remarkable degree which was amply evident when Biden paid a surprise
visit to Zelensky in Kyiv on 21 February 2023, and announced: “And Ukraine stands. Democracy stands.
The Americans stand with you, and the world stands with you.” 88 There didn’t appear to be any
generation gap in their political thinking! Sandwiched between them stands Putin unable to
comprehend the world around him and how much it has changed. Putin imagines himself to be a Tsar
with a nuclear weapon, riding bare-chested on a horse, conquering Ukraine to restore Russia’s lost
glory, and declare himself as the conqueror of the world, waving the red flag of communism with the
mindset of a proletarian symbolized by a hammer and a sickle.
Is this a comedy of tragedies or a tragedy of comedies? If William Shakespeare had to write a play,
how would he go about it? Or for that matter, how would George Bernard Shaw depict it? How do
you depict the brutality of a coward who cannot even dare to venture where coronaviruses may be
found, a virus unleashed on the world by a fellow communist who also shies away from the same virus
but suddenly lets it out on his own people and lets them die in untold numbers and also expresses
undying friendship with Russia and its Putin.89
We live in a world where communism once again feels emboldened to subjugate the world. Joseph
Stalin lives in Putin, Mao Zedong is being resurrected by Xi Jinping. In amassing brutal killings, Putin is
on his way to join Stalin and Mao with gory acts on unarmed civilians. The world is in deep trouble.
But the symptoms leading to it have been sprouting for decades yet they were ignored by all non-
communist governments. They are all guilty of complacency. Along the way they lost their ability to
tackle emerging transnational and global problems arising due to exponential growth in industrial
activity, especially those that were innovatively harnessed and patent protected. The most electrifying
of these used the electromagnetic force to power communication, computing, automation, travel, and
now artificial intelligence.90 This spectacular use of a fundamental force in Nature has since created
amazing prosperity at an exponential pace, and also, consistent with the laws of thermodynamics, it
has created enormous problems of waste management to a level where global warming and climate
change have become life threatening issues.
88 Vucci, et al (2023).
89 Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China on the International Relations Entering a
New Era and the Global Sustainable Development. 04 February 2022. http://www.en.kremlin.ru/supplement/5770 “At the
invitation of President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping, President of the Russian Federation Vladimir V. Putin
visited China on 4 February 2022. The Heads of State held talks in Beijing and took part in the opening ceremony of the
XXIV Olympic Winter Games.” They declare, “The sides share the understanding that democracy is a universal human
value, rather than a privilege of a limited number of States, and that its promotion and protection is a common
responsibility of the entire world community.” And then, “The sides call for the establishment of a new kind
of relationships between world powers on the basis of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and mutually beneficial
cooperation. They reaffirm that the new inter-State relations between Russia and China are superior to political
and military alliances of the Cold War era. Friendship between the two States has no limits, there are no ”forbidden“ areas
of cooperation, strengthening of bilateral strategic cooperation is neither aimed against third countries nor affected
by the changing international environment and circumstantial changes in third countries.” (Emphasis added.)
90 This became possible soon after James Clerk Maxwell (1831—1879; now ranked with Sir Isaac Newton and Albert
Einstein in fame) presented his field equations, based on Michael Faraday’s observations of the electric and magnetic lines
of force. It paved the way for Einstein’s special theory of relativity, which established the equivalence of mass and energy.
The related Maxwell’s landmark paper appeared in 1865; see Maxwell (1865).
32

The thought of humans trying to roll back climate from its present state would have appeared
ludicrous to Plato; but then so would have the idea of men from Earth walking on the Moon or that
intellectual outputs well beyond his (Plato’s) would be made by human designed machines in a jiffy.
Today’s politicians, with rare exceptions, are blissfully ignorant of the consequences of such changes.
Biden has been an exception. Surprisingly so at a time of accelerating socio-economic disruptions in
forms and intensity that have become increasingly life threatening. Biden apart, the political
understanding of these changes by governments are not only woefully missing, but if left to
themselves, their stand alone actions and inactions (something Putin and Xi were depending on)
would have led to devastation and chaos. The cause would have been the inability of leaders from
different generations to reconcile their different viewpoints. This is evident from the obvious example
that no government has been able to slow down the inexorable rise in ‘anti-social’ behavior, or
guarantee protection against terrorist attack, or provide an effective response to deleterious climate
change, or control global economic volatility. Trust in politicians continue to plummet and disdain for
them are on the rise. In all democratic countries, individual participation has been reduced to mere
sporadic voting to choose legislators, while executives, hand-in-glove with the legislature, manage
society and the economy and the nation’s foreign affairs, through a pyramidal top-down structure of
elite executives. Thus, the competition to elevate oneself to an elite status (as a legislator or executive)
is intense, antagonistic, and even violent, and as far as possible hidden from public view.
In such circumstances, Biden’s sudden emergence as the responsive leader of a spontaneous coalition
of nations affronted by Putin’s and Xi Jinping’s audacious transgressions has been an enormous stroke
of luck for the world. In one swoop it immediately derailed the duo’s plans of painting the world red.
Inadvertently, the communists have given the entire coalition a fortuitous opportunity to repent,
redress, rearm, reorganize, and reassert their place in the world. Putin and Xi Jinping thought they
could intimidate by bluffing, instead they have exposed themselves as communist leaders of no
consequence. For their audacity they will pay a heavy price that comes from a loss of trust.
Population wise, the future looks ominous. If the war continues, Russia could expect a population
crisis. By the end of February 2023, over 65,000 Russian fighters had been killed, over 130,000 have
sustained grievous injuries, and 800,000 people, mostly fighting-age men, have fled the country.
Russia might see fewer than 1.2 million births this year if the war in Ukraine continues.91 Recovering
from the ravages of war will be an onerous task.
3.3 An assessment of the future

The Russia-Ukraine war overnight changed the world’s political, economic, and military landscape
irreversibly. As the Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community for 2023 notes:
Efforts by Russia, China, and other countries to promote authoritarianism and spread disinformation
is helping fuel a larger competition between democratic and authoritarian forms of government.
This competition exploits global information flows to gain influence and impacts nearly all countries,
contributing to democratic backsliding, threats of political instability, and violent societal conflict
through misinformation and disinformation.92
In assessing the future one must bear in mind that in order to gain global domination, communism
relies on unabashed and uninhibited propaganda concocted by manufacturing misinformation and
disinformation. History teaches us a few important lessons. These are:93
91 India Today (20230227).

92 ODNI (2023). Information available as of 18 January was used in the preparation of this assessment.
93 The reader will benefit reading Thatcher (1993). Chapter 9.
33

• Democracies and autocracies are poles apart. They are inimical to each other. Communism
and liberal democracy are immiscible like oil and water.
• Peace by itself ceases to have meaning unless integrated with freedom and justice. Ironically,
it means that nations must stay armed to preserve peace should freedom and justice be
attacked.
• A superior military does not prompt a nation to indulge in war. It is an autocratic mindset that
seeks war.
• It is the mindset of some obsessive leaders who wish to impose change on others by resorting
to force against them. They start wars in the belief that they can gain more by going to war
than by remaining in peace. For these leaders, human sacrifices to wage war is irrelevant.
Humans are mere canon fodder. Examples: Soviet backed communist takeover in
Czechoslovakia (February 1948), and the Berlin blockade (24 June 1948 – 12 May 1949). And
now the Russia-Ukraine war (2022-).
• Since Hiroshima and Nagasaki (1945), there has been no conflict in which nuclear weapons
have been used. But in more than 150 conflicts that have been fought since with conventional
weapons, more than 10 million have died.
• True democracies rarely start wars. The only threat that NATO has ever posed to the Soviet
bloc or now Russia is the mortal fear autocracies harbor as masters of captive nations is that
their subjects will become enamored by ideas of freedom and justice and overthrow them. In
order to enlarge their domain of rule, autocrats indulge in adventurism.
• A fundamental difference between NATO and its opponents is that the democratic freedoms
the people of NATO members enjoy make it in practise impossible for the state to take more
than a certain part of the national income for military purposes. Further, the openness of
western democratic. societies, while it makes its people stronger and prone to making
voluntary sacrifices in a national crisis, it also makes nations slow to respond to insidious
threats.
• The non-communist world is now increasingly convinced that while a strong military defence
against communism is necessary, it alone is not sufficient to overcome the communist threat.
We must now put freedom on the offensive. A worldwide democratic revolution is gathering
fresh momentum and the West has changed its attitude in its battle against communism. The
West is now more resolute that it should not abandon those countries which had had
communism thrust upon them.
The Annual Threat Assessment also assesses the near future:

Moscow will continue to employ an array of tools to advance what it sees as its own interests and try
to undermine the interests of the United States and its allies. These are likely to be military, security,
malign influence, cyber, and intelligence tools, with Russia’s economic and energy leverage probably a
declining asset. We expect Moscow to insert itself into crises when it sees its interests at stake, the
anticipated costs of action are low, it sees an opportunity to capitalize on a power vacuum, or, as in the
case of its use of force in Ukraine, it perceives an existential threat in its neighborhood that could
destabilize Putin’s rule and endanger Russian national security.94
I concur! Why? Here is a description of the then Soviet Union by Margaret Thatcher made in September
1983 in a speech.
94 ODNI (2023).
34

First, the threat. We have to deal with: the Soviet Union. But we must deal with it not as we would like
it to be, but as it is. We live on the same planet and we have to go on sharing it. We stand ready
therefore—if and when the circumstances are right—to talk to the Soviet leadership.
But we must not fall into the trap of projecting our own morality onto the Soviet leaders. They do not
share our aspirations: they are not constrained by our ethics, they have always considered themselves
exempt from the rules that bind other states. They claim to speak in the name of humanity—but they
oppress the individual. They pose as the champion of free nations—but in their own empire they
practise total control. They invoke the word democracy—but they practise single-party rule by a self-
appointed oligarchy. They pretend to support the freedom of the ballot-box- but they are protected by
a system of one man, one vote—and one candidate.
Their power is sustained by myth. Presenting themselves to the world as the fount of progress and
revolution, they preside over a modern version of the early tyrannies of history. A structure so rigid that
it totally precludes the normal processes of questioning, discussion and change.
They have little contact with their own people, still less with the free world.
This would-be revolutionary power has an unparallelled arsenal of nuclear and conventional weapons
at its disposal. Its governing principles are force and dictatorship. It sees the expansion of Communism
as inevitable, a logical step in the march of history, and the rest of the world as its rightful freedom.95
It is as true of Russia today as it was for the Soviet Union then.
Thatcher ended her speech with a Winston Churchill quote: “where we are able to stand together
and work together for righteous causes, we shall always be thankful, and the world will always be
free.”
Putin, a war criminal?
On 17 March 2023, Pre-Trial Chamber II of the International Criminal Court (“ICC” or “the Court”)
issued warrants of arrest for two individuals in the context of the situation in Ukraine: Mr Vladimir
Vladimirovich Putin (President of the Russian Federation) and Ms Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova
(Commissioner for Children’s Rights in the Office of the President of the Russian Federation).96 Putin
“is allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that
of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation
(under articles 8(2)(a)(vii) and 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute). The crimes were allegedly committed
in Ukrainian occupied territory at least from 24 February 2022.  Ms Lvova-Belova bears individual
criminal responsibility for the aforementioned crimes, for having committed the acts directly, jointly
with others and/or through others (article 25(3)(a) of the Rome Statute).”97 The ICC further noted:
The Chamber considered that the warrants are secret in order to protect victims and witnesses and
also to safeguard the investigation. Nevertheless, mindful that the conduct addressed in the present
situation is allegedly ongoing, and that the public awareness of the warrants may contribute to the
prevention of the further commission of crimes, the Chamber considered that it is in the interests of
justice to authorise the Registry to publicly disclose the existence of the warrants, the name of the
suspects, the crimes for which the warrants are issued, and the modes of liability as established by
the Chamber.98
95 Thatcher (1983). This is quite a remarkable speech and her observations hold true even today.
96 ICC (2023).
97 ICC (2023).
98 ICC (2023).
35

The abovementioned warrants of arrests were issued pursuant to the applications submitted by the
Prosecution on 22 February 2023. This is a highly symbolic step that deepened Putin’s isolation and
destroyed his facade of impunity he had built around himself. There is little prospect of Putin actually
standing trial anytime soon since the ICC cannot try defendants in absentia. Russia, which is not a party to
the court, dismissed the warrants as “meaningless.” Yet the court’s move carries indisputable moral weight
and will find a place in history books. The warrant will likely restrict Putin’s travels, since he could face
arrest in any of the 123 countries that have signed on to the ICC — a list that includes virtually all European
countries and several in Africa and Latin America, but not China or the United States. It will also restrict
Putin and his lieutenants from acting with impunity in Ukraine. For Putin the world has suddenly shrunk.
Among the forcibly transferred Ukrainian children and teenagers to Russia or Russian-controlled parts of
Ukraine, many are orphans and some others are separated from their parents or legal guardians. Russia
has acknowledged transferring 2,000 children; Ukrainian officials claim 16,000 cases.99 Russia defiantly says
it will continue to take more Ukrainian children. “Its leaders have made clear that they intend to continue
deporting children to Russia in what they have billed as an act of humanitarian compassion.”100
US President Joe Biden has welcomed the ICC’s issue of an arrest warrant against Vladimir Putin. Biden’s
National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby told CNN’s Jake Tapper on
17 March 2023, “We’re going to stay committed to helping Ukraine as they document and analyze and
preserve the kinds of evidence of the war crimes, the atrocities, the crimes against humanity that have
occurred inside Ukraine at the hands of Russian forces.” He added, the US is “not going to back off our
belief that accountability for these war crimes has got to be had, however long that takes.”101
ICC prosecutor Karim Khan told the BBC, “This type of crime doesn’t need one to be a lawyer, one needs
to be a human being to know how egregious it is.” He also pointed out that nobody thought that Slobodan
Milosevic, the Serbian leader who went on trial for war crimes in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo in the 1990s,
would end up in The Hague to face justice. “Those that feel that you can commit a crime in the daytime,
and sleep well at night, should perhaps look at history,” 102 Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed his
thanks to Mr Khan and the ICC for their decision to press charges against “state evil”.103
The UN Human Rights Council released an Advance unedited version of its report on 15 March 2023
in which it found Moscow’s forced removal of Ukrainian children to areas under its control amounted
to a war crime. In its summary, it also noted:
The body of evidence collected shows that Russian authorities have committed a wide range of
violations of international human rights law and international humanitarian law in many regions of
Ukraine and in the Russian Federation. Many of these amount to war crimes and include wilful killings,
attacks on civilians, unlawful confinement, torture, rape, and forced transfers and deportations of
children.
The Commission has concluded that Russian armed forces have carried out attacks with explosive
weapons in populated areas with an apparent disregard for civilian harm and suffering. It has
documented indiscriminate and disproportionate attacks, and a failure to take precautions, in
violation of international humanitarian law.
99 Landler (2023).
100 Santora, and Bubola (2023).
101 Carvajal (2023).
102 Armstrong, Radford, and Gardner (2023).
103 Armstrong, Radford, and Gardner (2023).
36

In addition, the Commission has found that the Russian armed forces’ waves of attacks, starting 10
October 2022, on Ukraine’s energy-related infrastructure and the use of torture by Russian
authorities may amount to crimes against humanity. It recommends further investigations.
The Commission has documented a small number of violations committed by Ukrainian armed forces,
including likely indiscriminate attacks and two incidents that qualify as war crimes.104
Putin will remain an alleged criminal until and unless he submits himself for trial, or is handed over for
trial and acquitted. This is unlikely. Under such circumstances should Russia have any voting powers
in any UN related activities or should it automatically recuse itself in all such activities till the UN brings
in amendments to deal with such situations. Surely the UN can decide on this matter on moral, ethical,
and humanitarian grounds. The UN in its present form has become anachronous and dysfunctional.
The UN acquired a dubious mark in history when Putin became the first head of state of a permanent
member of the United Nations Security Council to be issued with an arrest warrant. The UN now has
an alleged war criminal on its Security Council! What is the UN going to do? Putin has now joined a
select group of historically powerful war criminals who were ultimately brought to trial: Nazi war
criminals, former Yugoslavian President Slobodan Milošević, and former Liberian leader Charles Taylor,
are examples of seemingly untouchable figures who faced justice. They all ended up in court rooms.
Volodymyr Zelensky
COVID-19, Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan,105 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, all coming in quick succession,
has made the world realize the true toxic nature of communism and the unbridgeable gulf that exists
between liberal democracy and communism. They are different in kind, not just degree. There is a
built-in conflict between the two; they are simply incompatible. Thus, the approaches relevant to the
one are irrelevant to the other. They generate different kinds of leaders. Historians understand this
better than politicians or armchair foreign policy experts, especially those who aspire to be peace
makers or peace brokers. Communism is visibly sluggish and mediocre. The impact of this is
pervasively visible in its economy, its technological inertia and the living standard of its people.
Communism is blind to the importance of historical nationalism which binds people together. This was
the primary cause for the breakup up of the Soviet Union. It tried to wipe out historical nationalism.
Based on their respective track records, the western system of liberal democracy has been triumphant
so far. By the standards of liberal democracies, communist countries are sick and on the defensive.
Russia-China partnership is a marriage of convenience as befits partners in a crime. It is the savage
disdain for decency that makes communism toxic. An example: In September 1983, when the Soviets
shot down a South Korean civilian airliner, killing 269 passengers it was not just the callousness but
the incompetence of the Soviet regime, which could not even bring itself to apologize. Another
example: The Response to the ICC’s arrest warrant against Putin (issued on 17 March 2023) for alleged
war crimes, has been: (1) Moscow dismissed the orders as “null and void”. (2) A threat from the former
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to hit the war crimes court in The Hague with hypersonic missiles.
“It’s quite possible to imagine a hypersonic missile being fired from the North Sea from a Russian ship
at The Hague courthouse.” (3) a threat to opening a criminal case against ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan
as well as the judges who issued the warrant for Putin by Russia’s top investigative body.106
Liberal democracies celebrate the individual, communism celebrates brutal autocrats. Western liberal
democracies rest on the unique, expansive creativity and vitality of individuals. It is so deeply ingrained
104 UNHRC (2023). See also: Gozzi (2023).

105 Bera (2022).
106 Al Jazeera (2023023).
37

in their genes, that even when creativity is intolerably crushed, it cannot be killed. For this reason
alone, a creative enough individual is bound to arise sometime or the other who would challenge the
communist system even if he had used it to attain power. One such has exploded on the scene,
Volodymyr Zelensky.
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43

Appendix A
Russian Embassy comment on Ukraine President Vladimir Zelensky’s “blitz-visit” to London
Russian Embassy in London. February 09, 2023

Source: https://telegra.ph/Embassy-comment-on-Ukraine-President-Vladimir-Zelenskys-blitz-visit-to-London-
02-08
The hasty visit by the Ukrainian “commander-in-chief” to the UK capital and his theatrical performance in
Westminster were obviously aimed at preparing the Western public for upcoming decisions towards further
satisfaction of the Kiev regime’s constant and ever increasing demands.
Zelensky’s pompous solicitations about the values of “freedom” and “human rights”, which Kiev claims to be
fighting for, were overtly hypocritical. In reality, there is hardly a single person in Westminster unaware that
such grandiose notions are incompatible with the repressive habits of the deeply corrupted Ukrainian elite. In
order to retain power Kiev has never been shy about banning opposition parties, censoring or even abolishing
independent media, persecuting and physically harassing dissidents, suppressing rights and freedoms of the
Russian-speaking population and the ethnic minorities of Ukraine.
Against this background the former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson in his habitually straight-forwarded manner
revealed the real motives that led British Lords and MPs to look dramatically serious whilst listening to the ex-
comedian in a green sweatshirt now on tour around Europe. In his interview to the LBC Mr Johnson noted that
military supplies to the AFU are a ‘massive down payment on future security’. In other words, he simply
reaffirmed what officials in Kiev have been openly saying – that Ukrainians are being sent en masse to die for
other countries’ strategic interests, participating in a hybrid war unleashed by the US and NATO against Russia.
Meanwhile the pockets of their “commanders” back in Kiev – themselves far away from the trenches – are being
lined with silver from prudent Western “investors”.
Zelensky’s “fundraising event” in London would of course have been incomplete without begging for more
weapons that Kiev has long ceased to pretend are merely “defensive” in nature – this time Western fighter jets.
Given that NATO artillery systems have been repeatedly used by Kiev warmongers to shell peaceful cities of the
Donbass, hardly any doubts remain that Western jets, should they ever be provided, would also be used in air-
raids against residential areas of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions that have come under Russian
protection.
We would like to remind London: in the event of such a scenario the death toll of yet another round of escalation,
as well as its military-political consequences for the European continent and the whole world will be on the
United Kingdom’s hands.
Russia will know how to respond to any unfriendly actions by the British side.
------------------------------------------
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Putin is getting desperate

Key words: Putin, Biden, Ukraine, China, United States, Xi Jinping.

Principal players in the Russia-Ukrain war

Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4398643

How did the Russia-Ukraine war begin?

Putin’s flawed strategy

America's “unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s democracy, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.”

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Russia’s fate is predictable

Communism’s fate is predictable

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Putin’s military is really a band of marauders

Putin’s Special Military Operation

2.1 Sanctions as a deterrence

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2.2 What do Russians think about the war?

10 Northam (2022). See also: Brookings (20221229).

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operation, a difference that any conscript would know.

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Putin’s mad rush into an unplanned war

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28 America’s Declaration of Independence. https://www.archives.gov/founding-docs/declaration-transcript

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Russia hurtling towards an economic crisis

29 Santayana (1905), p. 284.

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China faces a dilemma

32 See, e.g., Posen (2022).

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India faces a dilemma

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38 Usher, and Yousif (2023).

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Misplaced hesitancy in providing certain weapons to Ukraine

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Windfall markets for arms merchants

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Japan too revises its military stance

Biden quietly continues with Trump’s tough stance against China

The world is set to challenge Putin

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Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s take

On 01 December 2022, Ukraine’s defence minister welcomed Germany’s recognition of the

Putin’s ridiculous demands. Facts on the ground.

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Ukraine’s sources of weapons

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Zelensky globe trots to hero’s welcome

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Ukraine enters year 2 of the war

68 See: Biden (20230207).

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3 Where is the war heading?

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Perhaps the time has come to heed Walt,