FINALS IN DEVELOPMENT
ECONOMICS
Lecture #5: POVERTY AND
INEQUALITY
What is poverty?
Poverty is a state or condition in which
a person or community lacks the
financial resources and essentials for
a minimum standard of living.
Poverty is a multi-faceted
phenomenon which affects not only
the ability to purchase goods, but also
vulnerability towards various pressures
that may prohibit an individual from
enjoying life. This vulnerability may be
gauged from living conditions such as
employment, health, education, and
housing.
Poverty typically is measured by
purchasing power or per capita
expenditures made by the household,
in the form of poverty rates or
expenditure quintiles.
Purchasing power has a strong
correlation to most other living
condition indices and is therefore used
as a main indicator of poverty and
vulnerability.
The poor will never cease from the
land. Deuteronomy 15:11
Extreme (absolute) Poverty Line
•Poverty line signals to researchers
where poverty is and becomes the first
place to start in analysing poverty in a
certain country, within a certain
economic group.
•As differences in price levels across
the world evolve, the global poverty
line has to be periodically updated to
reflect these changes. In September
2022 the international poverty line was
updated from $1.90 to $2.15 per
person/day.
•While the global extreme poverty rate
may not be dramatically different after
the adoption of the new PPP and
poverty line, some regional and
country rates may fluctuate
considerably.
•It is important to note, however, that
the global poverty line is used primarily
to track global extreme poverty and to
measure progress on global goals set
by the World Bank, the United Nations,
and other development partners. A
country’s national poverty line is far
more appropriate for underpinning
policy dialogue or targeting programs
to reach the poorest.
What is poverty?
•Countries set very different poverty
lines in order to measure poverty in a
way that is informative and relevant to
the level of incomes of their citizens.
•For instance, while in the United
States a person is counted as being in
poverty if they live on less than roughly
$24.55 per day, in Ethiopia the poverty
line is set more than 10 times lower –
at $2.04 per day.
•To measure poverty globally,
however, we need to apply a poverty
line that is consistent across
countries.This is the goal of the
International Poverty Line which is set
by the World Bank and used by the
UN to monitor extreme poverty around
the world.
•The new extreme poverty line of
$2.15 per person per day, which
replaces the $1.90 poverty line, is
based on 2017 PPPs.
What is poverty:
Philippine perspective
When did poverty peaked and
declined: The last 200 years
Two centuries ago it was widely
believed that widespread poverty was
inevitable(ahem! Malthus). But this
turned out to be wrong.
Economic growth is possible and
poverty can decline. Historian Michail
Moatsos has produced a global data
set that goes back two centuries (see
chart on the left). According to his
research three-quarters of the world
lived in extreme poverty in 1820. This
means they “could not afford a tiny
space to live, some minimum heating
capacity, and food that would not
induce malnutrition.”
Pre-pandemic, global poverty has
declined continuously. But the trend
was interrupted in 2020, when poverty
rose due to the disruption caused by
the COVID-19 crisis combined with the
effects of conflict and climate change.
Where does the poor live:
Geographical Distribution
•The new extreme poverty line of
$2.15 per person per day, which
replaces the $1.90 poverty line, is
based on 2017 PPPs.
•Research indicates that the quality
and quantity of education, urban-rural
location, racial group, gender, health
and employment status all impact on
whether somebody is poor or not.
•Other factors include socio-economic
factors,historical legacy of a country,
social and religious customs,property
rights, economic dependence, political
system/affiliations etc. This is where
much debate about poverty lies.
Where does the POOREST live:
Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa is the poorest
region in the world. Almost 40% of its
population lives in extreme poverty.
Not all African countries are struggling,
in fact most African countries have
achieved good growth after the end of
the oppressive colonial regimes that
hindered the growth of African
economies. But in a number of
countries the situation is particularly
bad. These countries remain as poor
as they were in the past. Since the
economy is stagnant, poverty is too.
Where does the poor live: Rural
versus Urban Poverty
For most African and many Asian
nations, most poverty is in rural areas.
But it is no longer so in Latin America
(or Europe and North America). Nor
does the fact that there is more
poverty in rural areas mean that urban
poverty should be ignored –and an
increasing proportion of those who
suffer absolute poverty worldwide live
in urban areas.
Rural poverty: poverty occurring in
agricultural areas or provinces.
Urban poverty: poverty occurring in
urban metropolises and cities.
Typical consequences of poverty often
seen in urban areas include alcohol
and substance abuse; less access to
education; poor housing and living
conditions, and increased levels of
disease.
Heightened poverty is likely to cause
increased tensions in society, as
inequality increases. These issues
often lead to rising crime rates in
urban communities.
Great urbanization over the past
several decades
has led to the
phenomenon
coined as “the
urbanization of
poverty.” The
name generally
refers to the
migration of poor
communities
from rural areas
into urban centers in the hopes of
greater opportunity and increased
quality of life.
Where does the poor live:
Philippine perspective
Who are the poor?
•Common traits for those living in
extreme poverty include having little or
no education, work in manual low-
income jobs like in farming or
agriculture sector.
•In many developing countries the
poor tend to be Black, female, young,
rural, unskilled and perhaps semi-
skilled.
•For certain members of society,
mainly women and children, they may
already lack political, social or
economic rights meaning poverty
places a double burden on them,
making them even more vulnerable.
Globally, 1 in 5 girls are married before
age 18, ending their chances of an
education.
The World Bank’s extreme (absolute)
poverty definition says, "A person is
considered poor if his or her income
level fall below some minimum level
necessary to meet basic needs.” It
sets this minimum level, or
international poverty line, as living on
less than $2.15 a day.
Who are the poor: Female poverty
•Poverty has a female face. New
projections of global poverty by UN
Women, UNDP and the Pardee Center
for International Futures estimate that,
globally, 388 million women and girls
will be living inextreme povertyin 2022,
compared to 372 million men and
boys(report as of Feb 2022).
•But the outlook could be far worse. In
a “high-damage” scenario, this number
could balloon to 446 million.
•Based on a sample of 186 countries.
62.8% of extreme poor women live in
Sub-Saharan Africa, 20.9% in Central
and Southern Asia, 5.3% in Latin
America and the Caribbean, 5.1% in
Northern Africa and Western Asia,
4.8% in Eastern and South-Eastern
Asia, 0.8% in Europe and Northern
America, 0.3% in Oceania (excluding
Australia and New Zealand) and
0.01% in Australia and New Zealand.
Gender Inequality and Poverty
Gender inequality is now recognised
as being the most pervasive inequality
worldwide. There is no country in the
world where women enjoy the same
opportunities as men.
Measuring Gender Inequality
•Gender Inequality Index (GII) uses
metrics such as women's reproductive
health status, empowerment, and
labour market participation in
comparison to men’s to measure the
gender gap.
•includes maternal mortality rates
(from UNESCO) and women's
parliamentary representation.
•The GII value increases as gender
inequalities increase. One of the major
advantages of the index is seen to be
the ability for it to capture the linkages
across different dimensions for
example schooling and access to
work.
•The GII does not however capture
other relevant dimensions such as
time-use, access to assets, domestic
violence, and local-level empowerment
(UNDP 2010 p. 90)
Who are the Poor: Child Poverty
The impact that poverty has on
children is substantial. Children who
grow up in poverty typically suffer from
severe and frequent health problems
while infants born into poverty have an
increased chance of low birth weight,
which can lead to physical and mental
disabilities.
In some impoverished countries,
poverty-stricken infants are nine times
more likely to die in their first month
compared to babies born in high-
income countries. Those who live may
have hearing and vision problems.
As a result, children in poverty tend to
miss more school due to sickness and
endure more stress at home.
Homelessness is particularly hard on
children since they often have little to
no access to healthcare and lack
proper nutrition—which often results in
frequent health issues that cary on
until adulthood.
Why is there poverty: Causes and
determinants
•Research indicates that the quality
and quantity of education, urban-rural
location, racial group, gender, health
and employment status all impact on
whether somebody is poor or not.
•Other factors include socio-economic
factors, colonial past or historical
legacy of a country,social and religious
customs,property rights, economic
dependence, political
system/affiliations.
•Social conditions such as health,
nutrition, education and housing
influence productivity and affect
poverty status. These in turn are
influenced by poverty, affecting the
ability of households to gain access to
adequate social conditions to improve
their productivity.
•There is a large, positive correlation
between unemployment and poverty;
as well as between gender and
poverty.
How does the poor live:
Consequences of poverty
•Poverty is not just the lack of money.
•The poor people possess few
economic assets and often lack basic
literacy skills that limits their current
and future income-earning
opportunities.
•Poverty-stricken people and families
might go without proper housing, clean
water, healthy food, and medical
attention.
•Low-income families are also more
vulnerable to climate catastrophes and
more likely to fall into criminality.
Poverty versus Inequality
POVERTY is a “pronounced
deprivation in well-being”.
•Income or consumption poverty refers
to lack of monetary resources to meet
needs.
•Absolute (extreme) poverty is poverty
below a set line of what is required to
access minimum needs for survival.
•Relative poverty is set in relation to
others.
•Shelter poverty, food poverty, asset
poverty, time-poverty or health poverty
refer to lack of that specific good.
•Multidimensional poverty recognizes
the many different ways in which
people can be deprived.
•The transiently poor move in and out
of poverty.
•The chronically poor are poor for
years at a time or event their whole
lives.
•Vulnerability to poverty is the
probability or risk of being.
INEQUALITY refers to disparities in
areas such as income, wealth,
education, health, nutrition, space,
politics, and social identity.
•Intersecting inequalities occur when
people face inequality in multiple
aspects of their lives. •Vertical
inequalities occur between individuals.
•Horizontal inequalities occur between
groups.
•Inequality of outcomes refers to
differences in what people achieve in
life (e.g. level of income).
•Inequality of opportunities refers to
differences in people’s background or
circumstances that condition what they
are able to achieve.
•Global inequality refers to difference
in income between all individuals in
the world rather than inequalities
between countries.
 the scale of income and wealth
Measure of Economic Inequality: inequality in a country.
Gini coefficient
How do we end poverty: Gov’t
Gini coefficient (Gini index): Policies and Programs
measure of the distribution of income
across a population developed by the Broad Some specific
Italian statistician CorradoGini in 1912. Areas of examples
Interventio
It is often used as a gauge of ns
economic inequality, measuring Human •Building new / more
income distribution or, less commonly, Capital schools, clinics and
wealth distribution among a Investment: hospitals especially in
population. •Education rural areas
and •Increasing salaries of
The coefficient ranges from 0 (or 0%) Training teachers and health
to 1 (or 100%), with 0 representing •Health and workers
perfect equality and 1 representing Nutrition •Kto12and tech voc
perfect inequality. A higher Gini index programs
indicates greater inequality. Increasing •Solving traffic
Productivity congestion and mobility
Because of data and other limitations, and issues with public
the Gini index may overstate income Efficiency transportation
inequality and can obscure important •Competitive business
information about income distribution policies; fiscal
incentives to attract
foreign investments
Transfers •Conditional Cash
Gini Coefficient and Lorenz Curve and Transfers
Together Subsidies (PantawidPamilyaProgr
Lorenz Curve: the graphical / visual am)
representation •Subsidies and giving
of income or credits to farmers or
wealth nascent industries
distribution Capital •Increasing access to
within an Formation financial market
economy. It is Research, •Application of
developed by Technology technology to improve
American and agricultural yield
economist Innovations •Increasing pool of
Max Lorenz in 1905. scientists, engineers
Climate •Promoting and
It is drawn as a cumulative income resilience protecting Biodiversity
curve where population is divided into and •Phasing out coal and
quintiles: sustainabilit transitioning to
•The richest quintile is the 20% of y renewable energy
households with the highest Now you know.. So what?
disposable income
•the poorest quintile is the 20% of 1. Inform yourself: pay attention to
households with the lowest disposable what is happening,read up on current
income. events and issues, develop your
critical analytical skills and fact-check
The Lorenz Curve can be contrasted all the time.
with the line of perfect equality to show
2. Get political and use your social
media for good: raise awareness on
poverty related issues, share verified
information only, avoid hateful
language.
3. Share your ideas, time and money:
volunteer in causes you care about but
do it out of sincerity not for publicity.
4. Invest in your education and
character: walk the talk, be a
productive member of society and
positive contributor to economy.
Lecture #6: Hunger, Food security,
Agricultural Production
Hunger, Undernourishment and
Food Insecurity
Hunger: uncomfortable or painful
sensation caused by insufficient food
energy consumption.
Food insecurity: situation when
people lack secure access to sufficient
amounts of safe and nutritious food for
normal growth and development and
an active and healthy life.
Undernourishment: deficiency of
calories or of one or more essential
nutrients. It is caused by not having
enough to eat or having a diet that
lacks proper nutrition or food variety or
being unable to properly absorb
nutrients from the food one eats to
sustain good physical and mental
health, for example through illness.
Malnutrition: umbrella term for poor
nutrition, whether that is excess
consumption of nutrients (overnutrition
which can lead to obesity) or
inadequate consumption or absorption
of one or more nutrients
(undernutrition).
Hunger and Undernourishment
Having a diet which
is both sufficient in
terms of energy
(caloric)
requirements and
diverse to meet
additional nutritional
needs is essential for
good health.
Undernourishment,
especially in children
and mothers, is a
leading risk factor for
death and other
health consequences.
The UN has set a global target as part
of the Sustainable Development Goals
to “end hunger by 2030“. Currently we
are far from reaching this target:
•8.9 percent of the world’s population
are undernourished –this means they
have a caloric intake below minimum
energy requirements.
•663 million people globally are
undernourished.
•22% of children younger than five are
‘stunted’ –they are significantly shorter
than the average for their age, as a
consequence of poor nutrition or
repeated infection.
•9% of the world population –around
697 million people –are severely food
insecure.
•One-in-four people globally –1.9
billion –are moderately or severely
food insecure.
Levels of hunger are expected to
increase as the world's population
grows by an additional 2 billion people
by 2050.
Food Insecurity
Food insecurity can be caused by a
number of factors, including the
unavailability of food, unaffordable
food, and unequal distribution of food
between household members. Food
insecurity is one of the major causes
of poor nutrition.
Food insecurity is measured by the
FAO using its Food Insecurity
Experience Scale (FIES) global
reference scale
Food insecurity can be based on
inadequate quality or quantity of food.
Moderate food insecurity is generally
associated with the inability to
regularly eat healthy, nutritious diets.
High prevalence of moderate food
insecurity is therefore an important
indicator of poor dietary quality, and
the development of health outcomes
such as micronutrient deficiencies.
Severe food insecurity is more
strongly related to insufficient quantity
of food (energy) and therefore strongly
related to undernourishment or
hunger.
In 2018, 9.2% of the world population
(697 million) were defined as severely
food insecure.
As a share of the population, food
insecurity is highest in Sub-Saharan
Africa where nearly one-third are
defined as severely insecure.
Ending Hunger
In response to these broad challenges
of hunger, undernourishment and food
insecurity, there are five main goals
under SDG 2:
 To end hunger and ensure access
by all people to save nutritious and
sufficient food all year round. •to
end all forms of malnutrition,
including stunting and wasting in
children and address the nutritional
needs of vulnerable groups.
 to double the agricultural
productivity and incomes of small-
scale food producers.
 to ensure sustainable food
production systems and implement
resilient agricultural practices that
increase production, maintain
ecosystems, and strengthen the
capacity for adaptation to climate
change and improve land and soil
quality.
 to maintain genetic diversity of
seeds, cultivated plants, and
animals.
To alleviate this hunger, it’s critical to
increase agricultural production,
but in a way that is sustainable and
does not further harm and degrade
our environment.
Agricultural Land Use
For much of human history, most
of the world’s land was wilderness:
forests, grasslands and shrubbery
dominated its landscapes. Over
the last few centuries, this has
changed dramatically: wild habitats
have been squeezed out by
turning it into agricultural land.
The expansion of agriculture has
been one of humanity’s largest
impacts on the environment.
We use roughly half of global
habitable land for agriculture.
There is large variability in the
share of land a given country uses
for agriculture. Allocation ranges
from less than ten percent,
particularly across countries in
Sub-Saharan Africa and the
Scandinavian region to close to 80
 percent across most regions
(including the UK, Uruguay, South
Africa, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia).
It’s important to note that this
metric includes both land used for
arable (cropland) production and
pasture land for livestock grazing;
this means that agriculture can
consume a large share of land
area, even in arid and semi-arid
regions where extensive arable
farming is not possible.
Half of the world’s habitable land is
used for agriculture, of which about
77% of the world’s agricultural
land is used to feed livestock for
dairy and meat.
 These lands are either pasture
lands, which are fields covered
with plants suitable for grazing, or
their crop lands where crops are
produced for livestock feed.
 For example, in the United States,
which is the world’s biggest corn
producer, approximately 36
percent of corn is used to feed
livestock.
There are more than 50,000 edible
plants in the world, but just 15
crops provide 90 percent of the
world's food energy intake. These
crops make up the world staple
foods.
The expansion of land for
agriculture is the leading driver of
deforestation and biodiversity loss.
Half of the world’s ice-and desert-
free land is used for agriculture.
Most of this is for raising livestock
–the land requirements of meat
and dairy production are
equivalent to an area the size of
the Americas, spanning all the way
from Alaska to Tierra del Fuego.
The land use of livestock is so
large because it takes around
100 times as much land to
produce a kilocalorie of beef or
lamb versus plant-based
alternatives. The same is also
true for protein–it takes almost 100
times as much land to produce a
gram of protein from beef or lamb,
versus peas or tofu.
Research suggests that if
everyone shifted to a plant-based
diet we would reduce global land
use for agriculture by 75%. This
large reduction of agricultural land
use would be possible thanks to a
reduction in land used for grazing
and a smaller need for land to
grow crops. The research also
shows that cutting out beef and
dairy (by substituting chicken,
eggs, fish or plant-based food) has
a much larger impact than
eliminating chicken or fish.
Agricultural Production
Agricultural production refers to
the total amount of a crop
produced in a given region.
Production can be calculated as
the total area of land planted with
the crop times the amount of yield
per unit area.
Agricultural production can be
increased through extensification
and intensification.
To grow food you need two things:
some land and some of your time.
These two –land and labor –are
two of agriculture’s ‘inputs’. To
build a food system that works for
people and the planet, humanity
needs to achieve high productivity
in both of them
Extensification is increasing
agricultural production by
increasing the amount of land
under agriculture. In other words,
say you have an area of the world
that produces 500 tonnes of
maize, to increase production you
could simply increase the amount
of land under agriculture. If you
double land area you could double
production to 1000 tonnes of
maize.
Intensification is increasing
agricultural production by
increasing yield per unit area. This
is typically done by increasing
inputs such as: fertilizer, irrigation
or labor. If you take the same
example of increasing maize
production with intensification,
we're not increasing the amount of
land under maize but instead
increase the yield of maize on the
same amount of land.
Changing Trend in Agricultural
Production
The table
on the right
shows
projections
for how
much each
of these 3
metrics will
contribute
to
increased
agricultural
production through 2030.
Increase cropping intensity is a
form of intensification where
more crops are grown on a unit
of land by growing crops in
more seasons.
Production gains will largely come
from increases in yield, particularly
in areas like South Asia and East
Asia where there is not much room
for additional agricultural land
expansion.
 In developed nations,
extensification has stagnated
over the last few decades and in
many places, land area under
agriculture has actually decreased.
Case Study: India and Brazil
The map on the right shows
croplands across the globe in light
green and India’s highlighted with
the red square.
 As you can see India's already
largely agricultural with over 60%
of its land area under agriculture.
There is not much more room for
expansion of agriculture in India.
 In Brazil on the other hand, we can
see that there is less area under
agriculture compared to India. Also
a large proportion of Brazil's land is
forested (Amazon rainforest) which
is highlighted by dark green.
Hence, just because there may
be room for extensification does
not mean that increasing
agricultural land area is
desirable.
In fact agricultural expansion of
both croplands and pasture lands
has been one of the largest drivers
of deforestation of the Amazon
over the last several decades.
From 1990 to 2005 Brazil had the
largest amount of deforestation
globally with total forest loss
equaling the size of California.
Intensification and Yield
Increases
Most of the
increase in
agricultural
production can
be attributed to
increases in
yield.
Yield gaps, by
definition, can
be closed by
improving
management. For example, this
could include by increasing inputs,
including irrigation and fertilizer or
improving the timing of planting.
If we link this concept to
intensification, intensification can
occur by increasing the actual yield
and closing yield gaps.
Intensification can also occur by
increasing yield potential, by
increasing the possible yield that
could be achieved in a given field.
This could happen, for example, by
introducing new crop varieties that
have much higher yield potential
than previous varieties.
Sustainable Intensification:
Changing the way we farm
Some examples of sustainable
intensification are:
1. Improving crop fixes through:
Intercropping: where two or more
crops are planted together in the same
field. In this picture, cassava has been
intercropped with cowpea, which is a
nitrogen fixing plant. A nitrogen fixer is
a type of plant whose roots are
colonized by certain bacteria that can
extract nitrogen from the air and can
convert or fix it into a form that can be
used by plants as a fertilizer. Studies
have shown that incorporating a
nitrogen fixing plants through
intercropping could improve the yields
of the main food or cash crop, which in
this case is cassava.
Crop rotation: where different plants
are planted in a specific sequence one
after another. The plants are
complementary in terms of their use of
soil nutrients and their susceptibility to
pests and weeds. And because of this,
crop rotations can improve soil health
and it can reduce weed and pest
pressures.
Adopting higher yielding varieties is a
way to increase yields without
increasing inputs.
2. Increasing irrigation efficiency,
including drip irrigation and
sprinklers. Sprinklers, which are
pictured here on the right can
similarly increase water use
efficiency, especially when
compared to other methods of
irrigation like flood irrigation.
3. Improving soil fertility. Such
interventions can include adding
organic nutrients to soil, such as
through manure or compost.
4. Maintaining soil cover: This
means that instead of leaving
lands bear in between cropping
seasons, there is some form of
plant growth maintained all year. It
also means that bear soils
between rows of crops are covered
during the growing season.
Maintaining cover can have many
benefits, including reduce soil
erosion, improve soil organic
matter, improved water retention,
soil moisture, and a suppression of
weeds.Maintaining cover can be
done using various strategies
including cover crops or plants that
are grown for the sole purpose of
covering Mulching is another
example of maintaining soil cover
where some material such as crop
residues are applied to the surface
of the soil as crops grow.
5. Maintaining soil structure.
Typically, soils are told before
planting crops to remove residue
and to reduce weed pressure.
Tilling is a process where soil is
turned over and broken apart,
often using machinery attached to
tractors. This can lead to the
destruction of natural soil structure
to soil compaction to soil moisture
loss and to soil erosion. Zero or
reduced tillage are methods where
fields are prepared with no to
minimal tilling of the soil.
Green Revolution
Green Revolution was a set of
research technology transfer initiatives
that started in the mid 1900s and
increased agricultural production
across the world starting in the late
1960s.
• Several new high yield varieties of
cereals were introduced.These new
varieties where dwarf varieties that
were shorter and stature, which meant
that less nutrients were consumed for
growth and development. These
varieties were also less likely to lodge
or fall over.
• They were also very responsive to
fertilizers. In addition, during the Green
Revolution, the use of synthetic
nitrogen-based fertilizers became very
popular and these also greatly
increased yields.
• The availability of irrigation was also
greatly expanded. For example, in
India, there has been a boom in tube-
well groundwater irrigation from the
1960s onwards that has greatly
increased food production across the
country.
• Finally, there was also an increase in
mechanization, which led to improve
profit margins for large firms.
 While the Green Revolution
resulted in dramatic gains and
cereal production, there were also
significant negative implications.
 The Green Revolution moved into
full swing in the late 1960s,
technological advancements
incited an unprecedented growth
in agricultural production output.
Green Revolution
 According to Green Revolution:
Impacts, limits, and the path
ahead” the Green Revolution
occurred from 1966-1985, and the
post-Green Revolution period
occurred from 1986-2005.
 The rapid increase in agricultural
output resulting from the GR came
from an impressive increase in
yields per hectare. Between 1960
and 2000, yields for all developing
countries rose 208% for wheat,
109% for rice, 157% for maize,
78% for potatoes, and 36% for
cassava.
 Developing countries in southeast
Asia and India were the first
countries to show the impact of
the GR varieties on rice yields,
with China and other Asian
regions experiencing stronger
yield growth in the subsequent
decades.
By 2050, global population is projected
to increase by about one-third, which
will require a 70% increase in food
production.
The role of Agriculture
• People depend on a wide range of
agricultural products in almost all
aspects of life
o Nutrition is a key determinant of
human health
o Provider of energy –fuel, wood and
medicinal plants
o Raw materials for processed outputs
• Agriculture is an important
component of LDC economies. It is
central to:
o Providing Individual livelihoods and
employment
o Reducing hunger and alleviating
poverty
o Driver to economic growth (eg.
Agricultural share To GDP is around
40%-60 in many African countries)
• Globally, around 44% of population
live in rural areas (source: World
Bank) and extreme poverty continues
to be overwhelmingly rural: an
estimated 79%of those experiencing
poverty live in rural areas.
Rural Poverty
• In Africa, 60 % of the population
living in rural areas as of 2014.
• In Asia where structural
transformation were more advanced,
some rural people –especially those
operating on remote and marginal
farmlands not connected to urban
markets –have been left behind in the
economic transformation of previous
decades.
• in Latin America pockets of rural
poverty remain though societies have
largely urbanized. Agriculture
contributes to economic growth
through domestic and export surpluses
that can be tapped for industrial
development through taxation, foreign
exchange abundance, outflows of
capital and labor, and falling farm
prices.
• CHILD POVERTY IN RURAL
AREAS: the prospects of children and
youth in rural areas are often held
back compared with children in urban
areas: they are more likely to be out of
school5 and to be involved in child
labour, most of which is concentrated
in agriculture
Factors contributing to Low Income
and Poverty in Rural Areas
1. Economic factors: low levels of
productivity, lack of diversification
of rural economies and access to
markets to a large extent emanate
diseconomies of scale associated
with providing rural infrastructure
and services.
2. Social factors : patterns of
exclusion in rural communities
may undermine cohesion in some
contexts and mean that certain
groups may face addition
challenges in enhancing
livelihoods. For example, the
constraints facing rural women are
exacerbated by gender-based
power imbalance and lack of
gender awareness in policy
implementation, leading to
persistent gender gaps related to
outcomes such as land
ownership, productivity, and rural
wages.
3. Environmental factors:
biodiversity loss and
environmental degradation
particularly impact rural people
who generally rely heavily upon
natural resources for their
livelihood sources, most
commonly through agriculture.
And there is increasing awareness
that the already severe effects of
climate change are serving to
exacerbate challenges facing poor
rural people.
Rural and Urban Differentials
• Urban populations are, on average,
happier than rural populations in that
they return higher levels of happiness.
• The differences found can primarily
be explained by higher living
standards and better economic
prospects in cities, especially for those
with education.
• While the relative importance of
these place and people effects may
vary from country to country, urban-
rural differences in well-being were
shown to be strongly dependent on
development level.
Food Supply Chain
 Before it gets to the supermarket
shelves, our food passes through
an extensive network of retailers,
processors and producers who
are responsible for transforming
agricultural raw materials into safe
and nutritious food that we want to
eat.
 Trends such as market
concentration among large
multinationals in agri-food value
chains, the domination of large
private firms in agricultural
research and development (R&D)
and protection of products by
patents as well as strained fiscal
spending to provide services to
local smallholder family farmers
have contributed to a situation
where the types of food systems
transformation being promoted –
and the benefits associated with
these –are too often biased
towards large-scale actors at the
expense of smallholder family
farmers.
 The unique role and knowledge of
women farmers is especially
invisible in relevant discussions
and planning processes, for
example related to advancing
innovation, meaning local
sustainable grassroots knowledge
is rarely adequately captured and
shared.
 One of the major consequences of
these patterns of exclusion has
been that despite an
unprecedented bounty in terms of
productivity and profit in recent
decades, benefits have been
disproportionately skewed
towards a relatively small number
 of large private actors, with "collectively generate revenues of more
suboptimal impacts on rural than $1.1bn a day. “Behind the Brands:
poverty. Food justice and the 'Big 10' food and
beverage companies” –an Oxfam
Report
Food Supply Chain: the Growth of
MNCs
Food Supply Chain: Contract
Farming
 With globalization, the commercial
process has been
• Contract farming: agreement
internationalized. Since the 1990s,
between farmers and processing
multinational corporations (MNCs)
and/or marketing firms for the
have invested, developed
production and supply of agricultural
products (in collaboration with
products under forward agreements,
local researchers), transferred
frequently at predetermined prices.
technology, trained producers,
introduced contract farming, and
• The basis of such arrangements is a
provided financial assistance for
commitment on the part of the farmer
farmers and agri-business people
to provide a specific commodity in
in LDCs.
quantities and at quality standards
determined by the purchaser and a
 The basis for MNC domination in
commitment on the part of the
today’s global food economy
company to support the farmer's
started with market concentration
production and to purchase the
in DCs. The wholesale and retail
commodity.
food distribution system in other
OECD countries is also
• The contracting of crops has existed
concentrated.
from time immemorial. In ancient
Greece the practice was widespread,
 While the food system is complex
with specified percentages of
and its problems multi-faceted, the
particular crops being a means of
world’s largest food and beverage
paying tithes, rents and debts.
companies have enormous
influence. Their policies drive how
• During the first century, China also
food is produced, the way
recorded various forms of
resources are used and the extent
sharecropping. In the United States as
to which the benefits trickle down
recently as the end of the nineteenth
to the marginaliseddomestic
century, sharecropping agreements
producers at the bottom of their
allowed for between one-third and
supply chains.
one-half of the crop to be deducted for
rent payment to the landowner. These
practices were, of course, a form of
serfdom and usually promoted
permanent farmer indebtedness.

• In the first decades of the twentieth

Infographic showing how just ten
multinational conglomerates control almost
all of the food and beverage "brands" we
all recognize. These ten companies
century, formal farmer-corporate
agreements were established in
colonies controlled by European
powers. For example, at Gezira in
central Sudan, farmers were
contracted to grow cotton as part of a
larger land tenancy agreement. This
project served as a model from which
many smallholder contract farming
projects subsequently evolved.
Food Supply Chain: Losses and
Wastage
 32% of all food produced in the
world was lost or wasted in 2009.
When converted into calories,
global food loss and waste
amounts to approximately 24% of
all food produced. Essentially, one
out of every four food calories
intended for people is not
ultimately consumed by them.
o Food loss refers to food that is
spilled, spoiled, lost, or damaged prior
to reaching the consumer.
o Food waste, on the other hand,
refers to food that is of good quality
but is discarded by the retailer or
consumer before or after it spoils.
 Food loss and waste have many
negative economic and
environmental impacts.
Economically, they represent a
wasted investment that can
reduce farmers’ incomes and
increase consumers’ expenses.
 Environmentally, food loss and
waste inflict a host of impacts,
including unnecessary
greenhouse gas emissions and
inefficiently used water and land,
which in turn can lead to
diminished natural ecosystems
and the services they provide.
Solving Food Insecurity
Improving food security and reducing
rural poverty are closely related goals
Increasing Food Availability:
• Improving harvesting equipment and
techniques in regions with inefficient
harvesting
• Increase access to low cost
improved storage units
• Improving international and national
market and distribution systems
• Promoting competitiveness and fair
trade practices to ensure food is
available to all at a reasonable cost
Improving Food Access and
Affordability
• Implementing poverty reduction
programs (hunger is a result of
poverty, so whatever reduces poverty
reduces hunger)
• Improving food processing,
packaging, storage and market
distribution
• Improving transport infrastructure
such as farm-to-market roads could
help reduce travel time to markets,thus
reducing logistics costs and likelihood
of food rot and spoilage during
transport.Increasing
Food Utilization
• Promoting ‘nutrition education’ (ie.,
breast feeding in women, child care,
sanitary conditions, child care time to
free women’s time)
• Making food supplements (vitamin A,
iodine, iron, etc) and medicines widely
available
• Provision of safe water, hygiene and
sanitation
Reducing Rural Poverty
• Land reform laws (land ownership
and land rights)
• Trade Liberalisation (help keep
food prices affordable; improves
access to imported agricultural
technology, mostly embedded in
inputs; and provides cash to buy
inputs)
• Education & Training for farmers
(not only on efficient production
process but also on business
management, marketing and
digitalisation)
• Capital access and financing
subsidies for technological
upgrades (agriculture cooperative;
loans to SMEs)
• Research & Technology (agri-
technology, smart farming, etc.)
Now you know.. So what?
• Avoid food wastage: By tuning in to
your hunger signals you may learn that
you don’t need as much food as you
thought, and resize your meals
accordingly
• Prioritize plants: Shifting to a more
plant-based way of eating will help
reduce freshwater withdrawals and
deforestation —a win-win for both our
personal health and the environment.
• Minimize meat: Meat production is a
substantial contributor to greenhouse
gas emissions – beef production
especially –and the environmental
burden deepens, as raising and
transporting livestock also requires
more food, water, land, and energy
than plants
• Select new seafood: Fish can be a
healthy choice if part of an overall
healthy dietary style, but some species
are at risk of being overfished, or
produced in ways that harm the
marine environment. If your go-to
variety of fish is on the“avoid” list,
consider trying some new seafood.
• Look local: Exploring farmers
markets helps you find fresh produce
grown locally, but equally important,
you can meet the people who produce
your food. Such relationships are
opportunities for education: you can
learn how your food was grown, when
it was harvested, and even how to
prepare it.
• Eat mindfully: One of the simplest
things you can do to eat more
sustainably is to practice mindful
eating. Focusing on what you’re eating
allows you to reflect on where your
food came from and how it is
nourishing your body. By paying more
attention to WHAT and HOW we eat,
and thinking about the “bigger picture,”
we may alter our food consumption
and reduce food waste, as well as
become encouraged to seek out more
sustainable food sources.
LECTURE 7: POPULATION
GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT
Basic Terminologies
• Population: number of all the
organisms of the same group or
species who live in a particular
geographical area
• Population density –relates
population to area, (average) the total
population in a country or region
divided by its area (people/km2).
• Crude birth rate –the number of
births per 1000 people (CBR).
•Crude death rate –the number of
deaths per 1000 people (CDR).
• Fertility Rate -live births per woman.
• Mortality Rate -probability of dying
between birth and exact age 5. It is
expressed as deaths per 1,000 births.
• Demographic transition ––
evolution of birth & death rates over
the years(describes what has
happened to birth & death rates in
today’s MEDCs since 1800.)
• Migration –movement of a person or
a group of persons, either across an
international border, or within a State
• Life expectancy –how long people
in certain countries are expected to
live.
• Age dependency –percentage of
population that depend on economic
support (e.g. pension for the elderly,
school for the young).
• Dependency Ratio -ratio of the
population under age x1 (e.g., 0-24,
65-above) to the number of persons of
working age x1-x2 (e.g., 25-64). It is
expressed as number of dependants
per 100 persons of working age (e.g.,
25-64).
• Replacement level –the rate that is
needed to replace both parents.
• Family planning –practice of
controlling the number of children one
has and the intervals between their
births, particularly by means of
contraception or voluntary sterilization.
• Population pyramids –age & sex
structure of a population can be shown
in this type of graph, factors control the
shape, birth & death rates & migration.
Demography
Demography is the statistical study of
a population based on factors such as
age, race, religion, and sex.
Demographic data refers to
socioeconomic information expressed
statistically including employment,
education, income, marriage rates,
birth and death rates, and more.
World Population
(Q1: How many people live around
the world today and where are
they?)
• UNITED NATIONS: A baby born
somewhere on Tuesday (Nov 15) will
be the world's eight billionth person.
"The milestone is an occasion to
celebrate diversity and advancements
while considering humanity's shared
responsibility for the planet," -UN
Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
• Historical demographers estimate
that on average the population grew
very slowly from 10,000 BCE to 1700 -
by 0.04% annually.
• After 1800 this changed
fundamentally: The world population
was around 1 billion in the year 1800
and increased 8-fold since then.
• Around 108 billion people have ever
lived on our planet. This means that
today’s population size makes up
6.5% of the total number of people
ever born.
• Two hundred years ago the world
population was just over one billion.
Since then the number of people on
the planet grew more than 8-fold to
around 8 billion today.
• The chart shows historical population
estimates by region from 1800 through
to today.
• Most people always lived in Asia:
Today it is 60% two hundred years
ago it was 69%.
• The world region that saw the fastest
population growth over last two
centuries was North America.
• The population grew 31-fold. Latin
America saw the second largest
increase (28-fold). Over the same
period the population Europe of
increased 3-fold, in Africa 14-fold, and
in Asia 6-fold.
• More than half of the projected
increase in the global population
between 2022 and 2050 is expected to
be concentrated in just eight countries:
the Democratic Republic of the Congo,
Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria,
Pakistan, the Philippines and the
United Republic of Tanzania.
• The populations of the Democratic
Republic of the Congo and the United
Republic of Tanzania are expected to
grow rapidly, between 2 and 3 per cent
per year over the 2022-2050 period.
• Disparate population growth rates
among the world’s largest countries
will change their ranking by size: for
example, India is projected to surpass
China as the world’s most populous
country in 2023.

Population Growth Trend:
(Q2: Will humanity keep growing
indefinitely?)
 In order to study how the world
population changes over time, it is
useful to consider the rate of
change rather than focusing only
on the total population level.
 The chart shows annual
population growth rates,
superimposed over total world
population for the period 1700-
2010, plus UN projections up to
2100.
 In 1962 annual population growth
rates peaked, and since then, they
have been going down.
 According to these UN
projections, growth rates are likely
going to continue decreasing
through the century.
 This means that while the world
population quadrupled in the 20th
century, it will not double in the
21st century.
 Human population is not currently
growing exponentially.
There are two metrics we can use to
look at population growth rates:
Natural population growth: this is
the change in population as
determined by births and deaths only.
Migration flows are not counted.
 We see that there are some
countries today where the natural
population growth (not including
migration) is slightly negative: the
number of deaths exceeds the
number of births.
 Up until the 1970s, there were no
countries with negative natural
population growth.
Population growth rate: this is the
change in population as determined by
births, deaths,and migration flows.
 Whilst Western Europe’s growth
rates are currently close to zero,
sub-Saharan Africa’s rates remain
higher than 3%.
Demographic Transition
(Q3: How will global demographics
change in the next decades?)
 The change in the world
population is determined by
two metrics: the number of
babies born, and the number of
people dying.
o In 2021, there were approximately
134 million births –42 million more
than back in 1950.
o In 2021 around 69 million people
died.
 As the number of births is
expected to slowly fall and the
number of deaths to rise the
global population growth rate will
continue to fall.
 The charts present the empirical
evidence for the demographic
transition. As the number of
deaths approaches the number of
births global population growth will
come to an end.
 In short, as the world enters the
last phase of the demographic
transition and this means we will
not repeat the past. The global
population has quadrupled over
the course of the 20th century, but
it will not double anymore over the
course of this century.
 The world is approaching what the
late Hans Rosling called “THE
AGE OF PEAK CHILD”: the
moment in global demographic
history at which the number of
 children in the world stops
increasing.
 The world has probably not
reached 'peak child' yet. But as
this chart shows, we are likely
very close to a long flat peak; the
number of children in the world
will not increase much more.
 Globally, this means there will be
what is often called a
"demographic dividend". There will
likely be new economic
opportunities because the
proportion of people in working
age will rise as the proportion of
the dependent young generation
falls. At the country level, many
nations have already seen
benefits from this demographic
change.
The Demographic Transition in 5
Stages
Stage 1: Population is stable. There is
high fertility and high mortality; so
deaths and births cancel out.
(majority of human history took
place at this stage; hunter&
gatherer era; no countries in this
stage now)
Stage 2: Population grows rapidly.
There is high fertility but low mortality.
(industrial + medical revolution)
Stage 3: Population growth slows
down. Social norms adapt to the fact
that children survive. Fertility declines
with increasing education and labor
opportunities of women. (industrial +
medical revolution + eco growth +
urbanisation + women
empowerment)
Stage 4: Population growth stops. Low
fertility catches up with low mortality.
Stage 5: Population potentially starts
growing again. The evidence here is
limited, but the idea is that further
social and economic opportunities may
raise fertility again.
Q4: Factors Affecting Population:
Migration
* Migration –movement of a person or
a group of persons, either across an
international border, or within a State
** net migration rate: difference
between the number of immigrants
(people coming into an area) and the
number of emigrants (people leaving
an area) throughout the year. When
the number of immigrants is larger
than the number of emigrants, a
positive net migration rate occurs.
 At the global level, population
changes are determined by the
balance of only two variables: the
number of people born each year,
and the number who die.
 At regional or country levels there
is a third variable to consider:
migration into (immigration) or
migration out of (emigration) the
region/country.
 In the United States we see that
since the early 1950s, migration
into the USA has exceeded
emigration out of the country. This
means net migration has been
positive, and resulted in a
higher population growth rate
than would have occurred in
the scenario with zero
migration. In 2015, for example,
the actual population growth rate
was 0.68%. With zero migration,
this would have been 0.38%.
Q4: Factors Affecting Population:
Life Expectancy
* Life expectancy –how long people
in certain countries are expected to
live.

• Estimates suggest that in a pre-
modern, poor world, life expectancy
was around 30 years in all regions of
the world.And it stayed fairly stable for
most of history until humanity started
to make progress against poor health
just a few generations ago.
Epidemiologists refer to this period in
which life expectancy began to
increase substantially as the “health
transition”.
• The chart on the left shows that the
health transition began at different
times in different world regions;
Oceania began to see increases in life
expectancy around 1870, while Africa
didn’t begin to see increases until
around 1920.
• Since then life expectancy doubled in
all world regions.
 In Oceania life expectancy
increased from 35 years before
the health transition to 79 years in
2019.
 In Europe from 34 to 79 years.
 In the Americas from 35 to 77
years.
 In Asia from 27.5 to 73.6.
 And in Africa from 26 years to 63
years.
• Globally the life expectancy
increased from an average of 29yrs in
1770 to 73yrs in 2019.
Case Study: Japan’s Ageing
Society
 Japan, the world’s third largest
economy, has been experiencing
the issue of population aging to an
unprecedented degree. More
than 20% of Japan’s population
is over 65 years old, the highest
proportion in the world. By
2030, one in every three people
will be 65 or older, and one in five
people 75-plus years old.
 The rapid aging process can be
attributed to:
1. Decline in Japan’s fertility
rate -which can be explained by
the high rate of economic growth
and changes in family and social
structures in the post-war period
(changing lifestyles, people
marrying later in life or not
marrying at all, and the
economic insecurity of younger
generation)
2. Increasing life expectancy.
50 years ago, life expectancy at
birth was about 72 years; it has
since climbed to 84 years.
 The causal effect of aging is
leaving its mark on the
macroeconomy of Japan,
especially the labor force and
capital accumulation. Due to the
nation’s aging and shrinking
population, there is an increased
need to address the labor
shortage.
Factors Affecting Population:
Fertility Rate
*Fertility Rate: total number of
children that would be born to each
woman if she were to live to the end of
her child-bearing years and give birth
to children in alignment with the
prevailing age-specific fertility
rates(15-49yo).
 In the past people had many more
children than today. The number
fluctuated over time and there
were some differences between
countries, but for much of our
history, the average woman had
at least five children, and often
more. Two centuries ago this was
true for the US, the UK, Russia,
India, China and many other
countries for which we have data.
 The metric demographers use to
measure offspring per parent is
the Total Fertility Rate. The TFR
is defined as the average number
of children that would be born to a
woman over her lifetime if the
 woman were to experience the
current age-specific fertility rates
throughout her lifetime.It is a
metric that captures the fertility
rate in one particular year rather
than over the life course of a
generation of women –it is a
period, not a cohort metric.
 The chart here shows the average
across the world: the global Total
Fertility Rate. Up to 1965 the
average woman in the world had
more than 5 children. Since then
we have seen an unprecedented
change. The number has halved.
Globally, the average per
woman is now below 2.5
children.
Population & Development
(Q4: What’s the link between
population growth and
development?)
Demand for Children Equation
Factors Affecting Population:
Gender Roles
 Family size is partly determined
by social norms and views on
the role of women.
 In many contexts discrimination is
common and economic
opportunities are scarce, so
norms that limit women's options
end up also having an impact on
whether parents prefer having a
boy.
 A study found that the
introduction of cable television in
India exposed people to new
lifestyles, and this led to a
decrease in son preference, an
increases in women’s autonomy,
and a decreases in fertility.
(Note: In India there is evidence of
"missing girls" from sex-selective
abortions, as well as evidence of the
fact that couples’ often keep having
kids until they get a boy -so there are
millions of "less wanted girls" who are
disfavored in terms of health and
education.This short newspaper
article explains the issue of "missing"
and "unwanted" girls in more detail.)
Factors Affecting Population:
Women’s Education
 In 1965 the average woman on
the planet had 5 children. 50
years later this statistic –called the
total fertility rate –has fallen to
less than half.
 The choice of having a child
requires parents, but especially
mothers, to consider the
opportunity costs that come with
children –e.g. risking health, lower
earnings, etc.
 Education drastically affects
opportunity costs, and because of
this more educated women tend
to have fewer children.
 This chart shows that there is a
correlation between women's
education and family size, across
countries and time. Looking at
variation within countries shows
the same: more educated women
in a country tend to have fewer
children.
 These correlations capture the
direct effect of education on
fertility, as well as other aspects,
such as the fact that education
often goes together with changes
in social norms.
Factors Affecting Population:
Reproductive Health
 In surveys on desired family size
in which men and women are
separately interviewed, men
usually report a larger ideal family
size and a lower demand for
contraception than their wives.
 In many countries there's a large
number of women who do not
want to get pregnant, but are not
using contraception.
 Lack of access to contraceptives
is often a reality. But the evidence
shows that simply supplying
contraceptives is not enough to
guarantee usage. Changes in
social norms and female
empowerment are also necessary.
(Note: Family planning policies are
important even when they have no
direct impact on fertility. In
Colombia, for example,increasing
family planning alternatives led to
changes in the age at which women
had children, even though they had
little effect on number of children.
You can read more about
contraceptives, family planning and
female empowerment in our entry
here.)
Factors Affecting Population:
National Income
 This chart shows that in countries
with higher average national
incomes, families tend to be
smaller; and within countries,
richer families also tend be
smaller.
 This correlation is partly driven by
a causal mechanism: income
affects desired family size
because in poor families children
often take care of parents in old
age and during times of need. But
it also captures other things –like
the fact that higher incomes
often go together with better
health and education.
 Some studies have looked at
exogenous shocks to fertility (e.g.
contraception campaigns), and
they have found evidence
consistent with the causal link
(e.g. parents who have fewer
children often expect lower money
transfers in the future and hence
save more in anticipation).
Population & Development
(Q5: What’s the link between
population growth and
development?)
 A demographic dividend is the
accelerated economic growth that
can result from improved
reproductive health, a rapid
decline in fertility, and the
subsequent shift in population age
structure.
 With fewer births each year, a
country’s working-age population
grows larger relative to the young
dependent population.
 With more people in the labor
force and fewer children to
support, a country has a window
of opportunity for economic
growth if the right social and
economic investments and
policies are made in health,
education, governance, and the
economy.
 There are two important
relationships that help explain how
the level of development of a
country affects its population
growth rates:
1. Fertility rate is the parameter which
matters most for population changes –
it is the strongest determinant;
2. As a country gets richer (or ‘more
developed’), fertility rates tend to fall.
 Combining these two
relationships, we would expect
that as a country develops,
population growth rates
decline.
 Generally, this is true. In the chart,
we see that Population growth
rates are lowest in the most
developed regions –starting at
just over 1% in the 1950s and
falling to just 0.19% today. ‘Less
developed’ regions peaked later,
at a higher growth rate (2.55%)
and have declined more slowly.
‘Least developed’ regions did not
peak in growth rate until the early
1990s.
 Over the last two decades we
have seen declining population
growth rates in countries at all
stages of development.
Population & Development
Q5: Will population growth cause
famine as Malthus have predicted?
 As shown in the chart on the right,
despite the world’s population
increasing from less than one
billion in 1800 to more than seven
billion today, the number of people
dying due to famine in recent
decades is only a tiny fraction of
that in previous eras.
 So all in all, the recent history of
famine mortality does not fit the
Malthusian narrative particularly
well. Firstly, contrary to what
Malthus predicted for rapidly
increasing populations, food
supply per person has–in all
regions –increased as populations
have grown.
 Secondly, famines have not
become more, but less frequent.
Thirdly, in the modern era the
occurrence of major famine
mortality, and its prevention, is
something for which politics and
policy seem the more salient
triggers.
Criticisms to Malthusian Theory
1. Failed to foresee the Opening up
of New Areas:
Malthus had a narrow vision and was
particularly influenced by local
conditions in England. He failed to
foresee the opening up of new areas
of Australia, the United States and
Argentina where extensive farming of
virgin lands led to increased
production of food. As. a result,
countries like England on the continent
of Europe have been provided with
abundant supplies of cheap food. This
has been made possible with rapid
improvements in the means of
transport,a factor almost overlooked
by Malthus. No country need fear
starvation and misery if it does not
produce sufficient for its increasing
population these days.
2. Applied a Static Economic Law to
a Period of Time:
The Malthusian notion that the food
supply increases in arithmetical
progression is based on a static
economic law at any onetime. i.e., the
law of diminishing returns. Malthus
could not foresee the unprecedented
increase in scientific knowledge and
agricultural inventions over a period of
time which has stayed the law of
diminishing returns. Consequently, the
food supply has increased much faster
than in arithmetical progression.
Malthus has been proved wrong not
only in the advanced countries but
also in developing countries like India
with the ‘green revolution’.
3. Neglected the Manpower Aspect
in Population:
One of the principal weaknesses of
Malthus’ thought has been that he
neglected the manpower aspect in
population growth. He was a pessimist
and dreaded every increase in
population. An increase in population
means an increase in manpower
which may tend to increase not only
agricultural but also industrial
production and thus makes the country
rich by an equitable distribution of
wealth and income. As rightly pointed
out by Seligman, “The problem of
population is not merely one of
mere size but of efficient
production and equitable
distribution.” Thus the increase in
population may be necessary.
4. Population not related to Food
Supply but to Total Wealth:
The Malthusian theory rests on a weak
relationship between population and
food supply. In fact, the right
relationship is between population and
total wealth of the country. This is the
basis of the optimum theory of
population. The argument is that if a
country is rich materially and even if it
does not produce enough food for its
population, it can feed the people well
by importing food stuffs in exchange
for its products or money. The classic
example is of Great Britain which
imports almost all its food
requirements from Holland, Denmark,
Belgium and Argentina because it
concentrates more on the production
of wealth rather than on food products.
Thus the very basis of the Malthusian
doctrine has been proved wrong.
5. Increase in Population the Result
of declining Death Rate:
The Malthusian theory is one sided. It
takes the increase in population as the
result of a rising birth rate, whereas
population has grown considerably the
world over due to a decline in death
rate. Malthus could not foresee the
marvellous advancements in the field
of medical sciences which have
controlled fatal diseases and made
human life longer. This has been
particularly so in underdeveloped
countries like India where the
Malthusian theory is said operate.
6. Empirical Evidence proves this
Theory Wrong:
Empirically, it has been proved by
demographists that population growth
is a function of the level of per capita
income. When per capita income
increases rapidly, it lowers the fertility
rate and the rate of population growth
declines. Dumont’s “social capillarity
thesis” has proved that with the
increase in per capita incomes, the
desire to have more children to
supplement parental incomes
declines. When people are
accustomed to a high standard of
living, it becomes a costly affair to rear
a large family. Population tends to
become stationary because people
refuse to lower their standard of living.
This has actually happened in the
case of Japan, France and other
western countries.
7. Preventive Checks do not pertain
to Moral Restraint:
Malthus was essentially a religious
man who laid emphasis on moral
restraint, celibacy, late marriage, etc.
to control population. But he could not
visualise that human beings would
invent contraceptives and other family
planning devices for birth control. This
was perhaps due to the fact that he
could not make any distinction
between sexual desire and the desire
to have children. People have sexual
desire but they do not want to have
more children. Thus moral restraint
alone cannot help to control the
increase in population which Malthus
suggested. Family Planning is
essential as a preventive check.
8. Positive Checks not due to Over-
population:
Malthus’ pessimism and religious
education led him to believe that over-
population was a heavy burden on the
earth which was automatically
lessened by God in the form of misery,
wars, famines, floods, diseases,
pestilence, etc. But all these are
natural calamities which are not
peculiar to over-populated countries.
They visit even those countries where
the population is on the decline or
stationary, such as France and Japan.
Population & Development
(Q5: Will overpopulation cause
famine?)
 Environmental degradation,
including climate change,does
pose a threat to food security,
and the growth of human
populations has undoubtedly
exacerbated many environmental
pressures. However, this
represents only one aspect of the
complex explanation of why so
many people suffer and die from
undernourishment today, despite
their being adequate food
available for consumption globally.
 ‘Malthusian’ explanations of
famine and hunger thus fall short
for the following reasons, the
evidence for which we reviewed
above:
Per capita food supply
has increased as populations
have grown, largely due to
increasing yields.
Famine deaths have
decreased, not increased, with
population growth.
Food scarcity has
played a smaller role in
famines than suggested by the
Malthusian narrative.It ignores
other factors like conflict,
poverty, access to
markets,healthcare systems,
and political institutions.
Population growth is
high where hunger is high, but
that does not mean that
population growth makes
hunger inevitable. On the
contrary, we see that hunger
has fallen fastest in countries
with high population growth.
 If we want to put an end to
hunger, we need to understand
the diverse causes that bring it
about. Oversimplifications that
mistakenly see hunger and
famine as an inevitable
consequence of population
growth do not contribute to this
end.
Population & Development
(Q5:How many is too many?)
 POPULATION QUESTIONS ARE
FUZZY. Even an apparently
simple term like "overpopulation"
is hard to define exactly. Part of
the reason is that evaluating the
consequences of rapid population
growth falls in the odd academic
space where ecology, economics,
anthropology, and demography
overlap. Another part of the
reason is that attempts to isolate
specific social or environmental
consequences of rapid population
growth tend to sink into ideological
quicksand.
 When Malthus started this
controversial conversation in
1798, which has since pitted
 pessimists against optimists, he
simplified the issue. To solve the
population problem, its full
complexity must be considered.
Factors like culture, technology,
social institutions, policy, and
ethics cannot be ignored. High-
income societies should consume
less and help low-incomes ones
by sharing technologies to
empower women, improve living
standards, and increase education
—thus preventing humans from
exceeding Earth’s carrying
capacity.
 In his 1998 book, How Many
People Can the Earth
Support?,mathematical biologist
Joel E. Cohen presented the three
schools of thought in balancing
natural resources and the human
population: “Bigger pie” through
technological advancement,
“fewer forks” through reductions in
population growth rates, and
“better manners” through
improved governance and
elimination of inequalities. Cohen
envisioned bringing these
philosophies together through
universal primary and secondary
education. Masi agreed that all
three must be observed.
Policy Considerations
(Q6: What should be the role of
policy when it comes to
population?)
 It would be wrong to assume that
people in poor countries, where
families are larger, need external
help to control their fertility.
 As the chart shows, fertility rates
in poor countries are declining
faster than they did in rich
countries in the past.
 But of course: policies can help
speed things up even more. As
we have shown here, policies
that promote education, health
and better economic and social
opportunities for women, are
effective population policies.
The controversial Solutions…
Controlling fertility
 Persuade people on family-
planning programs
 Redistribute population
 Legalize abortion
 Coerce people (China’s One child
policy)
 Introduce obligatory education as
long as possible (minimum until
the age of 16), and generously
fund the necessary infrastructure
Increase the price of child
 Economic incentives and
disincentives of pregnancy
 Increase opportunity cost of
mother’s time
 Increase cost of educating child
Case Study: China’s One Child
Policy
Coercive population control
measures violate rights and are
ineffective.
 The chart plots fertility in China
since 1945. It shows that fertility
started to decline in 1970, long
before the introduction of the one-
child-policy. Taiwan, which is
claimed by China as part of China,
never introduced a one-child-
policy but experienced the same
decline.
 There is similar evidence from
other countries. In India, for
example, the "sterilization camps"
from the 1970s were ineffective -
and it is possible they actually
contributed to population growth in
the long run by eroding trust in
family planning policies.

Population Policies
(Q6: What are policies to manage
population?)
In low fertility developed countries,
governments should …
 Embrace rather than fight aging
and shrinking societies
 Reorganize pensions and other
socio-economic systems to
accommodate aging societies
 Eliminate baby bonuses,
government funding for fertility
treatments, and other incentives
to raise fertility rates
 Reduce immigration numbers (at
least to a level that will stabilize
national populations, preferably to
one that will lower them)
 Reduce resource consumption
and pollution through an effective
mix of taxes, incentives and
regulations
In high fertility developing
countries, governments should …
 Generously fund family planning
programs
 Make modern contraception legal,
free and available everywhere,
even in remote areas
 Improve health care to reduce
infant and child mortality•Restrict
child marriage and raise the legal
age of marriage (minimum 18
years)
 Introduce obligatory education as
long as possible (minimum until
the age of 16), and generously
fund the necessary infrastructure
In every countries, governments
should …
 Empower women, assuring equal
rights, treatment and opportunities
for both genders
 Provide information and access to
reproductive health care, including
all types of low cost, safe,
effective contraception
 Make sterilization free, for men
and women, or at least covered
under all healthcare plans.
 Legalize abortion without
restrictions or social stigma
 Integrate family planning and safe
motherhood programs into
primary health care systems
 Make population and
environmental issues and sex
education part of the basic
educational curriculum
 Disincentivize third and further
children non-coercively, by limiting
government support to the first
two children
 Create a national population
policy built around an optimal
population size, and work to
achieve it
 Set aside half the national
landscape free from intensive
development and dedicated to
biodiversity protection
Now you know.. So what?
 Read, educate yourself about
population issues
 Spread your knowledge and
concern among your friends and
family, raise awareness about
overpopulation on social media
 Reduce your personal
consumption: go vegan, limit
flying, share your household with
others,
 Have fewer children!
 Consider adoption. Children
need families not orphanages
according to JK Rowling.
 Educate your teenage child(ren) /
family members about sex and
contraception early, without
taboos.
 Donate to family planning
programs in your own or other
countries –for example to
International Planned
Parenthood, FP2020 or another
equally deserving organization
 Vote for politicians who
acknowledge the detrimental
 impacts of population growth and
propose political solutions
LECTURE #8: EMPLOYMENT,
MIGRATION AND URBANIZATION
Employment and Development
 Population and the labor force are
intertwined. Labor skills are a
major component of population
quality.
 Productive employment is key to
growth and poverty alleviation.
Empirical studies highlight that
economic growth tends to be
positively associated with job
creation.
 While economic growth is good for
job creation, it is important that
growth occurs in sectors that
have the potential to absorb
labour at a large scale. Some
sectors and activities are more
employment-intensive than others.
 Economic growth is usually
accompanied by a decline in the
proportion of labor force in
agriculture and an increase in the
share of labor in the more
productive industrial and services
sector.
The Production Function
Y = f (L, K, N, E, T)
means that output (or national
product) (Y) during a given time
period depends on factors such as:
 labor (L) eg. Human resources
 capital (K) eg. plant, equipment,
machinery, buildings, and
inventories
 natural resources (N) eg., land
 entrepreneurship (E)eg.
production resource that
coordinates labor, capital, natural
resources &technology
 technology (T) eg. technical
knowledge, connotes the practical
arts, ranging from agriculture
through manufacturing,
communication, medicine, and
electronics.
Unemployment vs. Underemployment
Unemployed: refer to those in the
labor force without work but available
and seeking employment.
Underemployed: those who work less
than they would like to work.
Visible underemployment occurs
when workers who are compelled to
work short hours as an alternative to
being out of a job.
Invisible underemployment results
from an inadequate use of workers’
capacities.
Edgar O. Edwards (1974:10–11)
identifies three forms of labor under
utilization or underemployment:
1. Disguised unemployment. Many
people seem occupied on farms or
employed in government on a full-time
basis even though the services they
render may actually require much less
than full time. Social pressures on
private industry also may result in
disguised unemployment.
2. Hidden unemployment. Those
who are engaged in non-employment
activities, especially education and
household chores, as a “second
choice,” primarily because job
opportunities are not (a) available at
the levels of education already
attained; or (b) open to women, as a
result of discrimination. Thus
educational institutions and
households become “employers of
last resort.” Moreover, many students
may be among the less able. They
cannot compete successfully for jobs,
so they go to school.
3. The prematurely retired. This
phenomenon is especially apparent in
the civil service. In many LDCs,
retirement age is falling as longevity
increases.
Causes of unemployment
TYPES OF UNEMPLOYMENT
1. Cyclical unemployment:
unemployment directly due to cycles
of economic upturn and downturn.
2. Frictional unemployment:
unemployment caused by the time
people take to move between jobs,
e.g. graduates or people changing
jobs. There will always be some
frictional unemployment in an
economy because the information isn’t
perfect and it takes time to find.
3. Structural Unemployment: This
occurs due to a mismatch of skills in
the labour market it can be caused by:
 Occupational immobilities:
refers to the difficulties in learning
new skills applicable to a new
industry, and technological
change, e.g. an unemployed
farmer may struggle to find work
in high tech industries.
 Geographical immobilities:
refers to the difficulty in moving
regions to get a job, e.g. there
may be jobs in city, but it could be
difficult to find suitable
accommodation or schooling
 Technological change: if there is
the development of labour-saving
technology in some industries,
then there will be a fall in demand
for some types of labour which
have been replaced by machines.
 Structural change in the
economy.The decline of the coal
mines due to a lack of
competitiveness meant that many
coal miners were unemployed.
However, they found it difficult to
get jobs in new industries such as
computers.
Unemployment Problems in LDCs
 Mainly city residents –
unemployment in urban areas is
twice that of rural areas.
 Most unemployed are first-time
entrants to the labor force (usually
15-24 educated urban population -
especially in LDC in South
America and South Asia)
 Unemployment is higher among
women
The Unemployment problem: Labor
Force Growth & Urbanization
 Empirical studies show that
growing unemployment in LDCs is
caused by the labor force
growing faster than job
opportunities.
 From 1950 to 2001, the LDC labor
force increased fivefold –from 500
million in 1950 to 2,517 million
(World Bank 1979i:48; World
Bank 2003c:44).
 Today’s developing countries
must contend with a much
more rapid labor force growth
than the industrialized countries
had at a similar stage in their
growth.
Rural-urban migration
1. Lewis model
 states that LDC economic growth
originated from the increase in the
industrial sector relative to the
subsistence agricultural sector.
 Arthur Lewis elaborates on this
theory in his explanation of labor
transfer from agriculture to
industry in a newly industrializing
country.
2. Harris-Todaro model
 The Harris-Todaromodel was
created to explain how internal
migration occurs from rural to
urban sectors through the
difference in the expected wage.
 The model assumes that people
only move for monetary gains,
 when in reality there are many  Within one country.
other factors involved in this  Crossing domestic jurisdictional
decision. boundaries.
Urbanization  Movements between states or
provinces.
Urbanization is the agglomeration of  Little government control.
population in cities or the growth of  Factors:
the proportion of the population - Employment-based.
living in cities. - Retirement-based.
- Education-based.
It could take place in 3 ways: - Civil conflicts (internally
displaced population).
1. Demographic process: Urban
population growth (natural increase or
migration).

2. Infrastructure process: Expansion

of urban infrastructures and land use.

3. Economic process: Creation of

secondary, tertiary and quaternary
sectors.
 Urbanization creates a society
where values and lifestyles are
urban. Urban population growth is
the most important change in
population geography. International Migration: A case of
 About 50% of the global Brain Drain
population or around 4 billion,
lives in cities.  Refers to the case where
 It is predicted that by 2050, 6.2 countries are losing the most
billion people will live in cities, educated segment of their
more than the current (2000) population. It relates to
population. educationally specific selective
 Much of this growth will come in migrations.
the world’s poorest countries.
 Can be both a benefit for the
Causes of urbanization receiving country and a problem
to the country of origin.
1. Historical: Defense, Trade routes.
2. Social: Impact to Impact to Origin
 Increased social Receiving Country
interactions•Institutions Country
representing a society 1. Getting highly 1. Education and
(government, religion & qualified labor health costs not paid
education). contributing to back.
3. Economic: the economy 2. Losing potential
 Linked with agricultural surpluses. right away. leaders and talent:
 Increased economic opportunities. •Developing countries
 Access to labor. 2. Promotes lose 15% of their
 Specialization. economic graduates.
 Economies of scale and of growth in •Between 15 and
agglomeration. strategic 40% of a graduating
sectors: science class in Canada will
Migration and technology. move to the US.
 •50% of Caribbean
3. Not having to graduates leave.
pay education Policies to Address Unemployment,
and health 3. Long term impact on Urbanization & International
costs.(It costs economic growth Migration
about $300,000
to educate an 4. Possibility of  Family planning programs to
average remittances. reduce population growth
American.)  Reform the educational system
5. Many brain drain  Reducing urban bias
migrants have skills  Increased rural / country side
which they can’t use at economic development
home:  DCs support economic
•The resources and development and political stability
technology may not be of LDCs (to prevent unwanted
available there. international migration )
•The specific labor  Transfer technology and business
market is not big offshoring
enough.

Case Study: International Migration

Philippines

 Philippines is among the top 10

countries of origin with the largest
diaspora populations (UN
International Migration Report,
2015)

 OFW remittances account for

almost 10% of GDP

Reverse Migration Trend

 High costs in developed countries.

 New opportunities in developing
countries.
 Part of the offshoring process of
many manufacturing and service
activities.
 Qualified personnel coming back
with skills and connections