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Views - Could Greenflation Stall The Electric Vehicle Revolution
Views - Could Greenflation Stall The Electric Vehicle Revolution
JANUARY 2022
Convention has it that inflation is good for commodities, since it goes hand in hand with strong economic activity that increases
demand. This leads to higher prices as marginal supply costs are higher and supply struggles to keep up.
The benefits can, however, be transient. Higher inflation ultimately leads to rising interest rates, which dampen down economic
activity. In addition, there’s a strong inverse correlation between the US dollar and commodity prices. At a simplistic level, strong
US activity pushes up commodity prices. This drives inflation, which begets higher US interest rates, which then dampens down
demand.
With inflation at multi-decade highs, there’s little debate about whether interest rates will rise; it’s about when, how much and
how often. However, notwithstanding the potential implications of this for commodity demand and prices, for now, market
dynamics across the mined commodity space are broadly price supportive. That begs a different question: with energy transition
demand for mined commodities exploding, could commodity price ‘greenflation’ put up a roadblock for EVs?
In volume terms this means that by 2026 BEV/PHEV vehicles will exceed 18 million units, up from 6.5 million units in 2021 – a
rise of 170%. Hybrid vehicles will add a further 5.9 million units to these totals by 2026, although they are less battery metal
intensive.
• EVs reaching cost parity with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, without government incentives.
As EVs start to dominate passenger vehicle sales, the cost of incentives rises dramatically. At the same time, revenues from
hydrocarbon taxes at the fuel pump drop significantly. Over the next five years incentives will undoubtedly be unravelled – in
China, the world’s largest EV market, this will happen next year. EV manufacturing costs (particularly for batteries) need to fall to
offset reduced incentives, rising electricity costs and inevitable taxes on EVs.
There is a circularity to this narrative, in that incentives will be reduced as battery, and hence EV, costs fall. But what if battery
costs continue to rise?
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Views: Could ‘greenflation’ stall the electric vehicle revolution?
Adoption was at first largely limited to the Chinese market, with Western producers favouring high-nickel ternary chemistries.
However, improvements in the energy density of LFP, together with its significant cost advantage, mean it has started to take off
in the West.
But there are many considerations to factor into decisions on chemistry. Whilst LFP cathodes are typically 30% cheaper than
NMC 811 (nickel-manganese-cobalt) cathodes, 811 cathode energy density is 60-70% higher per kilogramme. Overall, when
combined with anode to complete the cell, LFP is around 40% cheaper than an NMC 811 battery per kilogramme.
Given the cost advantages and increasing acceptance outside China, we are forecasting that LFP cathode chemistry’s global
market share will rise from 20% in 2021 to 28% by 2026.
Received wisdom is that battery costs will fall as scale and technology drive them down. For EVs to reach parity with ICE
vehicles without subsidies, battery packs need to cost below US$100 per kilowatt hour (US$100/KWh). Our battery pack model
indicates that delivered battery pack costs averaged US$120/KWh in 2021, with NMC batteries in the US$140/KWh range and
LFP batteries around the US$100/KWh level. Despite rising prices for some battery raw materials, increased use of LFP battery
chemistries and more efficient manufacturing means average battery costs are projected to fall below US$100/KWh by 2025.
As manufacturing costs fall, the proportion of the battery pack accounted for by the materials in the pack rises. Together with the
higher intensity of certain metals in EVs, this makes EV economics increasingly sensitive to commodity prices.
In the case of batteries, over the next five years, and assuming manufacturing costs decline as predicted, 60-70% of the costs of
pack manufacture will be due to the price of the commodities in the pack.
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Views: Could ‘greenflation’ stall the electric vehicle revolution?
A supercycle driven by an accelerated decarbonisation pathway points to rising rather than falling prices for certain key raw
materials. This, and the associated structural shortages, points to an acceleration of the trend away from the more esoteric
battery chemistries. The mining industry needs to deliver the necessary ongoing supply of critical raw materials and keep prices
in check. Otherwise, greenflation will force consumers to switch to proven alternatives such as LFP to remove the supply chain
risk of chemistries like NMC.
As the great Stephen Hawking once said, whether this comes to pass, “only time, whatever that may be, will tell.”
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