Lecture Note Week 10

Probability Distribution: Discrete (1)

Douglas a. Lind, et al., 2012, Statistical Techniques in Business & Economics, 15th ed. McGraw-Hill, USA.
GOALS
• Define the terms probability distribution and random variable.
• Distinguish between discrete and continuous probability distributions.
• Calculate the mean, variance, and standard deviation of a discrete probability
distribution.

2
WHAT IS A PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION?
A probability distribution is a listing of all the outcomes of an experiment and the
probability associated with each outcome.

Characteristics of a Probability Distribution:

• The probability of an outcome must always be between 0 and 1.
• The sum of all mutually exclusive outcomes is always 1.

Example:
Experiment: Toss a coin three times.
Observe the number of heads. The
possible results are: zero heads, one
head, two heads, and three heads.

What is the probability distribution

for the number of heads?

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Probability Distribution of Number of Heads Observed in 3 Tosses of A Coin

4
RANDOM VARIABLES
Random variable is a quantity resulting from an experiment that, by chance, can
assume different values.

5
Types of Random Variables
• Discrete Random Variable can assume only certain clearly separated values. It is usually the
result of counting something.
Example: The number of students in a class
The number of children in a family.
The number of cars entering a carwash in an hour.
Number of home mortgages approved by Coastal Federal Bank last week.

• Continuous Random Variable can assume an infinite number of values within a given range.
It is usually the result of some type of measurement.
Example: The distance students travel to class.
The time it takes an executive to drive to work.
The length of an afternoon nap.
The length of time of a particular phone call.

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THE MEAN OF A PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION
MEAN
•The mean is a typical value used to represent the central location of a probability
distribution.
•The mean of a probability distribution is also referred to as its expected value.

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THE VARIANCE, AND STANDARD DEVIATION OF A
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Variance and Standard Deviation

• Measures the amount of spread in a distribution

• The computational steps are:
1. Subtract the mean from each value, and square this difference.
2. Multiply each squared difference by its probability.
3. Sum the resulting products to arrive at the variance.

The standard deviation is found by taking the positive square root of the variance.

𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐍𝐃𝐀𝐑𝐃 𝐃𝐄𝐕𝐈𝐀𝐓𝐈𝐎𝐍 = √𝜎 !

8
Mean, Variance, and Standard
Deviation of a Probability Distribution – Example 1
Mrs. Kohl sells new cars for Toktok Company. Mrs. Kohl
usually sells the largest number of cars on Saturday. She
has developed the following probability distribution for the
number of cars she expects to sell on a particular Saturday.

Calculate the mean,

variance, and standard
deviation of this probability
distribution!

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10
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Mean, Variance, and Standard
Deviation of a Probability Distribution – Example 2
The Yahut Pizza offers three sizes of cola—small, medium, and large—to go with
its pizza. The colas are sold for Rp 100; Rp 110; and Rp 120, respectively.
Thirty percent of the orders are for small, 50 percent are for medium, and 20
percent are for the large sizes. Organize the size of the colas and the
probability of a sale into a probability distribution.

(a) Is this a discrete probability distribution? Indicate why or why not.

(b) Compute the mean amount charged for a cola.

(c) What is the variance in the amount charged for a cola? The standard
deviation?
 𝟐
Size of Cola Price of Cola Probability, 𝒙. 𝑷(𝒙) 𝒙−𝝁 𝒙−𝝁 𝒙 − 𝝁 𝟐 . 𝑷(𝒙)
(Rupiah), 𝒙 𝑷(𝒙)

Small 100 0.30 30 -9 81 24.3

Medium 110 0.50 55 1 1 0.5

Large 120 0.20 24 11 121 24.2

Total 1.00 109 49

𝝈 = 𝟒𝟗 = 𝟕
Exercise
Informasi di bawah ini adalah jumlah panggilan layanan darurat harian yang dilakukan oleh
layanan ambulans sukarelawan Walterboro, Carolina Selatan, selama 50 hari terakhir. Sebagai
informasi, terdapat 22 hari dimana dua panggilan darurat terjadi, dan 9 hari dimana terdapat
tiga panggilan darurat.

Jumlah Panggilan Frekuensi a. Susun informasi ini pada suatu distribusi probabilitas.

0 8 b. Apakah ini contoh distribusi probabilitas diskrit atau kontinu?

1 10 c. Berapa rata-rata jumlah panggilan darurat per hari?
2 22 d. Berapa standar deviasi dari jumlah panggilan yang dilakukan
3 9
setiap hari?
4 1
Total 50
 𝟐
Panggilan, x Frekuensi P(x) 𝒙 𝑷(𝒙) 𝒙−𝝁 𝒙−𝝁 𝒙 − 𝝁 𝟐 . 𝑷(𝒙)

0 8 0.16 0 -1.7 2.89 0.462

1 10 0.20 0.20 -0.7 0.49 0.098

2 22 0.44 0.88 0.3 0.09 0.04

3 9 0.18 0.54 1.3 1.69 0.304

4 1 0.02 0.08 2.3 5.29 0.106

Total 50 1.00 1.70 1.01

B. Ya, Diskrit karena hanya nilai yang keluar hanya pada rentang tertentu dan nilai tidak dapat berupa pecahan decimal.
C. Rata-rata panggilan adalah 1.7 per hari
D. Standar deviasi adalah 1.005 (SD=√1.01)