Experimental Design:

from Agriculture to Industry and

Marketing Research
Utami Dyah Syafitri
Email: utamids@apps.ipb.ac.id

Seminar Online : 27 Februari 2021

Program Studi Statistika dan Sains Data
Departemen Statistika FMIPA
IPB University

Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 1

 Outline

Definition of Experimental Design

Experimental Design in Industry – Factorial Design

Experimental Design in Market Research – Conjoint analysis

Further research

Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 2

 Methods of collection data

sensus
observasi
survei percobaan

database web scraping

(administrasi, transaksi,
tangkapan aktivitas)
Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 3
 Observasi vs Percobaan

Pengamatan terhadap Apakah jika diberikan warna yang

perubahan warna berbeda, maka perubahan warnanya akan
sesuai dengan warna yang diberikan?
Sumber foto:
https://carecorner.weebly.com/uploads/7/0/4/2/7042382/6001 Sumber foto: https://i.ytimg.com/vi/KV4YuzuXpjQ/maxresdefault.jpg
608_orig.jpg Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 4
 Experiment vs Experimental design
Experiment Experimental Design

• An experiment is a type • creating a set of

of research method in procedures to test a
which you manipulate hypothesis.
one or more independent
variables and measure
their effect on one or
more dependent
variables.

Sumber : https://www.scribbr.com/methodology/experimental-design/
Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 5
Source : http://www.stat.cmu.edu/~hseltman/309/Book/Book.pdf
Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 6
 APA ITU PERANCANGAN PERCOBAAN?

• Merupakan suatu metode yang sistematik yang di

dalamnya terdapat uji atau sederetan uji dimana suatu
proses atau sistem mengakibatkan terjadinya perubahan
yang cukup berarti dari variabel input, yang dapat
diamati melalui respon yang muncul.

• Perencanaan (planning) suatu percobaan untuk

memperoleh informasi yang relevan dengan tujuan dari
penelitian

Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 7

 Controllable
X1 X2 factors Xp

...

Inputs Output
Proses
Y1, Y2, …, Yk

...

Z1 Z2 Zp
Uncontrollable factors
Sumber: Montgomery, 2013.
Design and analysis of experiments 8th edition. Wiley
Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 8
 Cause and Effects Diagram
Controllable Uncontrollable
factors factors

Objective of
experiments

Blocking Held constant

factors factors

Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 9

Experimental
Design in
Industry

Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 10

 Syzygium polyanthum (Wight) Walp
Bay Leaves
as medicinal plant

Another names:
Salam|Maselangan|Ubar Serai|Gowok|Kastolam
 Pharmacological Effects of
Bay Leaves

Alzheimer
Antioxidant Antibacterial Antidiarrheal treatment
 COMPONENTS
ACTIVITIES Flavonoids
Phenolics

EXTRACTION TECHNIQUE

Microwave-Assisted Extraction (MAE)

♥ Higher yield
♥ Much shorter time
♥ High efficiency in solvent consuming
 Study case: Bay leaves extraction
Factors Levels
(Variables, Inputs) (Settings)
Treatment(s)
Time
30s 45s 60s (1) 30s (2) 45s (3) 30s
Replications : 3x

Power 30% (4) 45s (6) 60s (7) 45s

Solvent to
sample ratio 30 mL/g (8) 30s (9) 60s (10) 60s

Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 14

 Analysing the data

1 3

Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 15

One factor at time
Power : 30%
Solvent to sample ratio: 30 ml/gram

Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 16

 Study case: Bay leave extraction
Factors Levels
(Variables, Inputs) (Settings)
Treatment(s)
Time
45s (1) 10% (2) 50% (3) 30%

Power 10% 30% 50% (4) 30% (5) 10% (6) 50%
Replications : 3x

Solvent to
30 mL/g (7) 50% (8) 10% (9) 30%
sample ratio

Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 17

Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 18
 Drawbacks
• Tidak bisa
membandingkan semua
kombinasi perlakuan

• Pengacakan lengkap
tidak bisa dilakukan
karena percobaan
dilakukan secara
bertahap -> pengacakan
merupakan salah satu
prinsip dalam
perancangan percobaan

Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 19

 Factorial design
• Dalam berbagai bidang penerapan perancangan
percobaan diketahui bahwa respon dari individu
merupakan akibat dari berbagai faktor secara
simultan
• Percobaan satu faktor akan menjadi sangat tidak
efektif mengingat respon yang muncul akan berbeda
jika kondisi faktor-faktor lain berubah
• Percobaan faktorial dicirikan oleh perlakuan yang
merupakan komposisi dari semua kemungkinan
kombinasi dari level-level dua faktor atau lebih
Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 20
 Study case: Bay leaves extraction
Factors Levels Responses
(Variables, Inputs) Treatment(s) (Outcomes,
(Settings)
characteristics)

Time
30s 45s 60s 30s

Flavonoid
Power 10% 30% 50% 10%
Phenolics

Solvent to
20 mL/g 30 mL/g
sample ratio 40 mL/g
40 mL/g

Sumber : Anggraini, D.N. 2016. Pengoptimuman kondisi ekstraksi berbantuan mikrogelombang untuk fenol dan
flavonoid total daun salam menggunakan metode permukaan. Skripsi. Kimia.

Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 21

 33 Factorial Design - All treatments
30 s
30 s 30 s
10% 45 s
10% 45 s 10% 45 s
60 s
60 s 60 s

30 s
30 s 30 s
40 ml/gram 30% 45 s
20 ml/gram 30% 45 s 30 ml/gram 30% 45 s
60 s
60 s 60 s

30 s
30 s 30 s
50% 45 s
50% 45 s 50% 45 s
60 s
60 s 60 s
Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 22
Experimental Region – 33 Factorial Design

60%

C 50%

B
30% 10%
20 mg/liter A 40 mg/liter
Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 23
Prinsip Perancangan Percobaan

Randomization (Pengacakan)

Replication (Ulangan)

Local Control -- Blocking

Factorial design in Complete Randomized
Block Design (CRBD)
Block I Block II

Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 25

 Randomization
Pengamatan Kondisi ekstraksi Pengamatan Kondisi ekstraksi
ke- ... A B C ke- ... A B C
1 1 1 2 28 3 2 3
2 3 2 1 29 3 3 3
3 3 2 3 30 2 3 3
4 1 2 1 31 2 2 2
5 2 2 2 32 3 3 1
6 1 3 2 33 1 2 1
7 3 1 1 34 1 3 3
8 2 3 2 35 1 1 1
9 3 2 2 36 2 3 2
10 1 1 1 37 2 2 1
11 3 1 2 38 1 3 2
12 2 1 1 39 3 2 1
13 2 2 1 40 1 1 3
14 1 3 1 41 3 1 1
15 3 1 3 42 1 2 2
16 2 1 2 43 1 2 3
17 1 3 3 44 2 1 1
18 3 3 2 45 3 2 2
19 2 1 3 46 1 1 2
20 1 1 3 47 3 3 2
21 2 3 3 48 2 1 3
22 3 3 1 49 1 3 1
23 2 3 1 50 3 1 3
24 1 2 2 51 2 3 1
25 3 3 3 52 2 1 2
26 1 2 3 53 3 1 2
27 2 2 3 54 IPB
Departemen Statistika FMIPA 2 2 3 26
Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 27
 Response Surface Model
Total Flavonoids

Sumber : Anggraini, D.N.

2016. Pengoptimuman
kondisi ekstraksi berbantuan
mikrogelombang untuk fenol
dan flavonoid total daun
salam menggunakan
metode permukaan. Skripsi.
Kimia.

Power 10% Power 30% Power 50%

Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 28
Experimental
Design in
Marketing
Research

Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 29

 Conjoin Analysis

Dalam marketing riset merupakan suatu tehnik

peubah ganda yang dikembangkan secara khusus
untuk mengetahui preferensi dari berbagai
objek (produk, layanan, atau ide)
 Preferences of statistics
teaching methods

Preferences of bike
Three important steps in Conjoint Analysis
Design the combination of
attributes (experimental design)

Sampling

Analysis
 Tahapan (1)
Tahap I Tahap II Tahap III

• Definisi • Pemilihan • Keterpenuhan

permasalahan Metode Konjoin asumsi dari
• Merancang analisis konjoin
stimuli
• Merancang
bagaimana
stimuli diukur
• Merancang
kuesioner
 Tahapan (2)
Tahap IV Tahap V Tahap VI Tahap VII

• Pendugaan • Interpretasi • Validasi hasil: • Aplikasikan

model konjoin hasil baik internal dan hasil konjoin
• Evaluasi dalam level eksternal analisis untuk
kebaikan umum maupun validity segmentasi
model dalam level pelanggan,
individu analisis profit,
• Kepentingan choice
relatif dari simulator
atribut
 Desain-Empat pertanyaan
• Atribut mana yang paling penting dalam menilai preferensi dari
responden – pemilihan atribut
• Bagaimana responden tahu mengenai makna dari masing-masing
faktor – pemilihan level
• Apa yang dievaluasi oleh responden – kombinasi dari atribut  profil
• Berapa banyak profil yang dievaluasi -- rancangan
 Attributes of teaching methods
• The number of students
• Delivering methods
• Teaching equipments
• Material resources
• Giving rewards
• Giving motivation
• Exercise methods
• Assesment methods

Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 36

 Levels of each attribute
• The number of students : small, medium, large
• Delivering methods : one way, two way
• Teaching equipments : board, projector, board + projector
• Material resources : handouts, slides, textbooks
• Giving rewards : always, sometimes, no
• Giving motivation : always, sometimes, no
• Exercise methods : individual, groups
• Assesment methods : standard, distribution

Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 37

 Profiles
Board Projector
Handouts Handouts
Rewards : always Rewards : always
Motivation : always Motivation : always
Exercise : individual Exercise : individual
Assesment : standard Assesment : standard
Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB
Projector
Handouts
Rewards : sometimes
Motivation : always
Exercise : individual
Assesment : standard
38
 Experimental design All
• The number of students : small, medium, large combination:
• Delivering methods : one way, two way 5 3
• Teaching equipments : board, projector, board + projector
3 x2
• Material resources : handouts, slides, textbooks =7776
• Giving rewards : always, sometimes, no
• Giving motivation : always, sometimes, no
• Exercise methods : individual, groups Impossible to run!
• Assesment methods : standard, distribution

Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 39

 Design
•Karena biasanya jumlah level dan faktor banyak
maka tidak digunakan rancangan faktorial
•Rancangan yang biasa digunakan adalah fraksional
faktorial atau bridging design atau orthogonal
array atau rancangan yang optimal berdasarkan
kriteria tertentu
 Another isu : Response measurement
Traditional conjoint

Rank

1 10 1 10 1 10
Rating
Response measurement
Choice Based Conjoint
 Our research : Five atributes/factors*
Delivering Teaching Material Giving Giving
methods (A) equipments (B) sources (C) rewards (D) motivation (E)

One way white Slides/han

Exist (1) Exist (1)
(1) board (1) dout (1)

white board + Textbooks

Two way (-1) Not exist (-1) Not exist (-1)
projector (-1) (-1)

Syafitri U，Afandi FM, Palupi SP (2016). Choice Based Conjoint for Preferences of Statistics Teaching Methods.
Proceeding of the 7th Annual Basic Science International Conference-2017. FMIPA Universitas Brawijaya
 25 Full Factorial Design
NO A B C D E
1 1 1 1 1 1 A profile
2 1 1 1 1 -1
3 1 1 1 -1 1
4 1 1 1 -1 -1
5 1 1 -1 1 1
6 1 1 -1 1 -1
7 1 1 -1 -1 1
8 1 1 -1 -1 -1
9 1 -1 1 1 1
.
.
.
32 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
 Profile no 1

Sources of material : Giving rewards Giving motivation

Slides/handout for students in the class

One way, using only white board

Profile no 9

Sources of material : Giving rewards Giving motivation

Slides/handout for students in the class

One way, using white board +

projector
25 Full Factorial Design
NO A B C D E
1 1 1 1 1 1 A profile
2 1 1 1 1 -1
3 1 1 1 -1 1
4 1 1 1 -1 -1
5 1 1 -1 1 1 Too
6 1 1 -1 1 -1 Much!!!
7 1 1 -1 -1 1
8 1 1 -1 -1 -1
9 1 -1 1 1 1
.
.
.
32 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
 Fractional Factorial
Task 1 Task 2

8 profiles 8 profiles
Task 3 Task 4

8 profiles 8 profiles
 Task 1
No A B C D E
1 1 1 1 1 1
2 1 1 -1 1 -1
3 1 -1 1 -1 -1
4
5
1
-1
-1
1
-1
1
-1
-1
1
-1
+1
6 -1 1 -1 -1 1
7 -1 -1 1 1 1
8 -1 -1 -1 1 -1

Generators : D = AB, E = ABC

 Task 2
No A B C D E
1 1 1 1 -1 1
2 1 1 -1 -1 -1
3 1 -1 1 1 -1
4
5
1
-1
-1
1
-1
1
1
1
1
-1
-1
6 -1 1 -1 1 1
7 -1 -1 1 -1 1
8 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1

Generators : D = -AB, E = ABC

 Task 3
No A B C D E
1 1 1 1 -1 -1
2 1 1 -1 -1 1
3 1 -1 1 1 1
4
5
1
-1
-1
1
-1
1
1
1
-1
1
+1
6 -1 1 -1 1 -1
7 -1 -1 1 -1 -1
8 -1 -1 -1 -1 1

Generators : D = -AB, E = -ABC

 Task 4
No A B C D E
1 1 1 1 1 -1
2 1 1 -1 1 1
3 1 -1 1 -1 1
4
5
1
-1
-1
1
-1
1
-1
-1
-1
1
-1
6 -1 1 -1 -1 -1
7 -1 -1 1 1 -1
8 -1 -1 -1 1 1

Generators : D = AB, E = -ABC

 Sampling Methodology
• Population : Students of Department of Statistics, Faculty of
Mathematics and Natural Sciencies , Bogor Agricultural University
• Stratified Random sampling : 2nd batch, 3rd batch, and 4th batch
• Total respondents : 150
• Distribution respondents of each batch

53 50 47
2nd batch 3rd batch 4th batch
Distribution of respondents/task
Task 1 Task 2

12 12 14
12 11 12

35 38
Task 3 Task 4

14 12 12 15 12 12

38 39
 Analysis
• The X matrix is a full factorial from 4 tasks
• The response is 1 (yes) and 0 (no)
• Logistic binary regression is used to estimate the coefficients of the
model which uses for utility values of product
• Total utility function Coefficient of a
logistic regression
Utility value of each level of each attribute
Important relative values
 Conclusion
• The preferable teaching method for statistics students were : delivering
methods in two ways, using white board and projector, no matter
material sources, existing rewards and motivations in the class.
• The most important attribute was teaching equipment. The next two
important attributes were delivering methods and motivation. Source of
materials was not important attribute at all.
• The preferable teaching method for statistics students were : delivering
methods in two ways, using white board and projector, existing rewards
and motivations in the class.
• The most important attribute was teaching equipment for visualization.
 Further research

More factors Blocking

Model : linear Orthogonal
vs non linear
and levels factors
model array
Restricted on
Restricted on Type of
experimental
budget factors
region
Optimal
Availability
constraint
Other
constraints
Design
Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 58
The people who are crazy
enough to think they can
change the world are the
ones who do
Think different
The secret of change is to
focus all of your energy
not on fighting the old,
but building the new
Socrates
Thank you

Departemen Statistika FMIPA IPB 60