A scheme for the Health Index and residual life of
cables based on measurement and monitoring of
diagnostic quantities
Gian Carlo Montanari1,2
Paolo Seri1
1
Department of Electrical, Electronic and information
Engineering “Guglielmo Marconi”
University of Bologna
Italy
Abstract— Defining a methodology providing an objective
assessment of the health conditions of electrical apparatus is a
must for an effective asset management approach, which can
provide the most appropriate Return of Investment (ROI)
keeping the asset at the desired reliability level. At present,
diagnostic and monitoring techniques are available to evaluate
electrical apparatus conditions, but too often the output is made
by patterns, values and subjective indications which are not able
to provide a real clue to help asset and maintenance manager
decisions. This paper proposes an algorithm for the estimation of
a health index, HI, for polymeric cable systems based on off-line
and on-line measurement of diagnostic markers. The health index
is a number ranging between 0 (worst condition, indicating
imminent failure) and 1 (unaged cable, potentially able to provide
the design life), which can allow a functional estimation of
residual life to be obtained. An example of HI and residual life
calculation for a cable system is provided, which shows feasibility
and potentiality of the algorithm.
Index Terms— Cable, Health Index, Residual Life,
I. INTRODUCTION
A fundamental question from asset and maintenance
managers of electrical facilities is how to establish the condition
of electrical apparatus and residual life compared to the design
life. Ideally, one would want a well-established physics-of-
failure model with measurable parameters that provides reliable
insight as to the expected life of the cable. The measured
parameters would accurately account for all relevant situations
in manufacturing and previous use. Unfortunately, a
sufficiently reliable and comprehensive model has yet to be
developed.
But even in the absence of the ideal situation, asset
managers have to make the most reliable assessments possible.
Answers are, in general, based on measurements of diagnostic
properties and interpretation of the test data. More recently,
condition monitoring devices are being installed on some types
of electrical apparatus (particularly MV generators, HV GIS,
HV transformers and HV cables), but results require often the
interpretation of experts and an objective evaluation of the
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R.E. Hebner2
2
Center for Electromechanics
University of Texas
USA
health, or condition, of the electrical apparatus under
investigation is still unavailable. The estimation of the residual
life is even more tricky because it will depend on the diagnostic
property investigated and its relation to the aging rate of
apparatus sub-components.
For example, if the measured property is partial discharges
(PD) in a MV cable, its deviation from the base values (for
unaged cable) may lead to significantly different remaining life
estimation. In electrical apparatus ageing is generally a
multifactor process involving a coupled response to electrical,
thermal, and mechanical stresses. The failure that results from
that process nearly always presents itself as electrical failure.
and For polymeric cables, the mechanical forces are generally
a minor factor and there are various diagnostic properties which
can be measured to assess cable aging/reliability associated
with the main aging factors, electrical and thermal stresses [1].
Some of those can be measured only off line, other on line,
sporadically or through continuous monitoring. Some
measurements require damaging the cable, such as breakdown
voltage and water tree counts, but the latter can be considered
when doing cable maintenance due to a previous failure. This
paper defines an algorithm which can, based on diagnostic
property measurement, develop an health index (𝐻𝐼) for new
and aged cables, and demonstrates how to derive a model for
residual life estimation based on the 𝐻𝐼 value. Various
properties are considered, in order to provide a broad
background, which is mostly appropriate for MV polymeric
cables. However, the approach could be also applied to oil-
paper and to HV cables, choosing the appropriate properties.
II. DEFINITION OF HEALTH INDEX AND CALCULATION OF
RESIDUAL LIFE
The health index (𝐻𝐼) is meant to be a simple indicator of
the health conditions of an electrical apparatus. It is based not
only on the measurement of diagnostic properties, but also on
various information about age, environmental conditions,
operating conditions and previous maintenance of the apparatus
[2]-[4]. Focusing in the insulation system, which is often the
weakest component of an electrical apparatus, and considering
a diagnostic marker 𝑋 (which could be also a vector of values
of different diagnostic quantities), the health index can be
defined as:
𝐻𝐼 = 1 − Pr(𝐹|𝑋)
where Pr(𝐹|𝑋) is the conditional probability of failure given a
level of the diagnostic marker 𝑋. Therefore, the larger the
probability of failure, the lower 𝐻𝐼. If diagnostic properties are
permanently or intermittently measured as a function of time
under operation, 𝑡, a dynamic health index (𝐷𝐻𝐼) can be
defined, according to (1), where the diagnostic property is
function of the time under operation when measurements are
done, 𝑋(𝑡) [4],[5]. The aging function, A, could be expressed
as a function of 𝑋 [6]-[8]:
𝐴 = 𝐹(𝑋) = 𝐾(𝑆)𝑡
where 𝐾(𝑆) is aging rate under stress 𝑆. The diagnostic marker
𝑋 would be defined having initial value 𝑋 at 𝑡 = 0 and ageing
𝐴 = 0. The limit value for 𝑋 , which indicates end of useful
life (not necessarily breakdown, but high risk for the insulation
to not be able to withstand operating or transient stresses) is
reached when 𝐴 = 𝐴 :
𝐴 = 𝐹(𝑋 ) = 𝐾(𝑆)𝐿
being 𝐿 the life of the insulation system. At the design stage, 𝐿
is the life at a chosen failure probability, according to
specification provided by the manufacturer/client of the
insulation system. If the design stress estimation is made
correctly, based on the knowledge of the operating stresses and
the use of life models which can be extrapolated to the design
life and stress, the electrical insulation is expected to last
according to the specifications. An example of life model
typically used to design cable insulation is [6],[8]:
𝐿 = 𝐶𝐸
which is the so called inverse power model, where 𝐸 is
electrical stress at the operating temperature (lower or equal to
the thermal class of the insulation [9]) and C a parameter,
function of temperature. Equation (4) provides a straight line in
log log plot, which is extrapolated to design life and field based
on accelerated life testing [10]. The insulation system should
reach 𝐴 in correspondence of the design life, 𝑡 = 𝐿 , but only
if no maintenance was required. Depending on the value of 𝐴
or the 𝐷𝐻𝐼 in correspondence of 𝑡 = 𝐿 , life extension plans
can be developed, increasing the Return of Investment (ROI)
for the asset. Based on the above definitions, and having
achieved a 𝐻𝐼 value for a cable, an objective estimation of
residual life, compared to 𝐿 , could be achieved, at least
formally, as follows. If measurements of a diagnostic marker
property, or a series of diagnostic markers, 𝑋 , is done at time
under operation 𝑡 , and 𝐻𝐼 or 𝐷𝐻𝐼 are derived, the value of
Aging limit for 𝑡 = 𝑡 can be written as (equations (2) and (3)):
𝐴 = 1 − 𝐻𝐼 = 𝐾(𝑆)𝑡
The residual aging before reaching the limit which corresponds
to the design life is 𝐴 − 𝐴 (see Fig. 1 where equations (2), (3)
and (5) are represented under the assumption that 𝐾(𝑆) is not
function of time (S is constant)), thus from (3) and (5):
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𝐴 𝐴
𝐿 = − (6)
𝐾(𝑆) 𝐾(𝑆)
where 𝐿 is residual life. Taking 𝐴 and 𝐴 in relative values,
so that 𝐴 = 1 and 𝐴 = 1 − 𝐷𝐻𝐼(𝑡 ), eq. (6) provide an
(1) estimation of residual life, considering that
𝐴
𝐾(𝑆) = (7)
𝐿
and life 𝐿 can be expressed for electrothermal stress, by eq. (4).
(2)
(3)
Fig. 1. Representation of time behavior of aging function, 𝐹(𝑋), Aging limit,
𝐹(𝑋 ), health index at time 𝑡 , 𝐴 , and design, 𝐿 , and residual life, 𝐿 (eqns.
(2), (3), (5), (6)).
III. ALGORITHM FOR CABLE HEALTH INDEX ESTIMATION
The first step to structure the 𝐻𝐼 or 𝐷𝐻𝐼 algorithm is to divide
the equipment under test (EUT) in different subcomponents 𝑖,
which may have different technologies and materials. For each
subcomponent, a number of 𝑗 diagnostic markers (𝑋 , ) are
(4) considered and associated to a score, 𝑆 , . Typically, 𝑆 , = 1 ÷
4, but any other range is acceptable.
In the case of polymeric cables, diagnostic markers measured
off line could consist of partial discharge inception, PDIV,
voltage dissipation factor, tan(𝛿), and water tree content
(endowing two sub-properties which may have different impact
on cable reliability, that is, length and density). Also,
thermography observations can be done at the terminations and
joints (when accessible) to look for the presence of hot spots.
Water trees, however, could be measured only cutting a
specimen from cable, thus, in general, after a failure occurred.
A property of fundamental importance, partial discharges, PD,
can be measured on-line, possibly through permanent cable
monitoring. Also PD, however, must consider sub-properties,
based on the type of defect which generated discharges. Indeed,
internal, surface and corona discharges are all able to
understood as PD pulses and be collected in PD patterns, but
while the first is generated in defects internal to insulation and
is highly harmful for insulation aging (being able to break
(5) polymeric bonds and, thus, degrade material very rapidly), the
last, i.e. corona, can be just a disturbance coming from outside
the cable, and/or indicate other phenomena potentially harmful
for cable life, such as loose grounding bolts and so on. Surface
discharges can occur in accessories, e.g. at the interface
between cable insulation and joint insulation/semicon, and have
generally harmfulness which is intermediate between internal
and corona discharges [11]. Based on the above considerations,
a weight has to be attributed to each diagnostic marker or sub-
marker, depending on its harmfulness in terms of aging and
breakdown processes. The more the specific diagnostic
property is associated with an aging mechanism which has fast
degradation rate, the more its weight will be large. For this
purpose, weighting factors, 𝑊 , , are applied to each diagnostic
marker and subsystem (ranging, e.g., between 1 and 5). A
weighted average, 𝑊 , , can be used to account for score
and weight of all markers considered for the specific sub-
component of the EUT, both the markers and the sub-markers
(the latter first, then the former):
∑ 𝑆 , ∙ 𝑊,
𝑊 , = (8)
∑ 𝑊,
where 𝑀 is the number of diagnostic markers monitored for the
subcomponent 𝑖. A further step is to take into account all
information coming from visual inspection. It can be carried
out, in general, on accessories, in order to check major/minor
problems and the likelihood of the information provided by a
diagnostic marker. These inspections will result in an Adjusting
Factor, 𝐴𝐹 , which is summed to the 𝑊 , bringing to the
partial score, 𝑃𝑆𝐶 of the subcomponent 𝑖 under test. If data on
the Failure Rate contribution of each sub-component to the total
Failure Rate of the equipment, 𝐹𝑅 , is available (based e.g. on
IEEE publications, papers, insurance reports, or experience in
the asset under consideration), this is another coefficient to be
taken into account in the 𝐻𝐼 estimation. Eq. (9) summarizes
these considerations into the algorithm for 𝐻𝐼 or 𝐷𝐻𝐼
estimation:

𝐹𝑅 ∙ (𝑃𝑆𝐶 − 𝑆𝐶 )
𝐻𝐼 = 1 − (9)
𝑆𝐶 , − 𝑆𝐶 ,

where 𝑁 is the number of subcomponents of the apparatus

under monitoring, 𝑆𝐶 , and 𝑆𝐶 , are the maximum and 2A
minimum score values for the diagnostic indicators of the
subcomponent 𝑖 (e.g. 4 and 1, respectively, where 1 is good
conditions and 4 is bad conditions (action), or alternatively
1=green, 4=red, according a color scheme [2],[5][12]). Finally,
information on failure rate data, equipment loading,
environmental conditions and Age can be taken into account to
amend by an Adjusting Factor, 𝐴𝐹 , the value of 𝐻𝐼 obtained
from eq. (9).
𝐻𝐼 = 𝐻𝐼 + 𝐴𝐹 (10)
If Age is low, and loading is limited on the average, so that the
mean operation temperature is significantly lower than the 2B
thermal class, the final value of 𝐻𝐼 can be decreased Fig. 2. Structure for 𝐻𝐼 calculation for cable systems. Three sub-components
accordingly. As an example, it is worthwhile remembering that, are chosen, i.e. cable, joints and terminations (Fig. 2A), each of one having a
as a rule of thumb, a reduction of 10°C of operating temperature series of diagnostic marker and, in the case of PD and water tree count,
will correspond to an increment of 50% of thermal life [13]. marker sub-classes. Fig. 2B is the continuation of Fig. 2A bringing to the
Note that Age is a concept drastically different from Aging. final 𝐻𝐼 calculation.
While Age, indeed, is operation time from the apparatus
commissioning, Aging is, as shown above, related to Thus, 𝐻𝐼 is fundamentally related to Aging, not Age, but taking
degradation of functional properties. into account also Age can help in finding out an objective figure
for 𝐻𝐼. Also, it is noteworthy that most of the above
coefficients, that is, 𝑆 , , 𝑊 , , 𝐴𝐹 , 𝑃𝑆𝐶 and 𝐴𝐹 are

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function of time under operation, thus they contribute to the
value of 𝐷𝐻𝐼. Figure 2 shows a scheme of the 𝐻𝐼 algorithm for
cable systems. Three sub-components are chosen (cable, joints,
terminations), each of one having a series of diagnostic markers
and, in the case of PD and water tree count, three and two
marker sub-classes, respectively.
IV. DIAGNOSTIC MARKERS FOR CABLES AND THEIR
SCORE/WEIGHT
It is not easy, and it can be subjective, to provide score and
weight for the diagnostic properties that can be used to estimate
cable 𝐻𝐼. Considering the above-mentioned properties, some
indications could be as follows.
The score, 𝑆 , , can range between 1 and 4, while weight
between 1 and 5. For PDIV, the property can be defined as
𝑋, = where 𝑉 is nominal phase voltage, and it can be
measured by off-line measurements using voltage generators as
resonant, VLF or OWTS systems. Weight 𝑊 , could be set
equal to 5, because the presence of PD during operation is very
harmful for cable system reliability. Property ranges and
relevant 𝑆 , values could be: 𝑋 , ≤ 1, 𝑆 , = 4; 𝑋 , = 1, 𝑆 , =
3; 1 < 𝑋 , ≤ 1.2, 𝑆 , = 2; 𝑋 , > 1.2, 𝑆 , = 1.
Considering PD amplitude, measured off line at nominal
voltage or on line during cable system operation, again the
weight must be the maximum, i.e. 5, only if the detection
system or the expert doing the measurement is able to confirm
that PD are generated by a defect internal to insulation (internal
discharges). In this case, one can consider 𝑆 , = 1 when PD
amplitude is negligible (e.g. amplitude smaller than 10 mV),
𝑆 , = 2 for amplitudes between 10 and 100 mV, 𝑆 , = 3 for
PD in the range 100 to 1000 mV and 𝑆 , = 4 for values above
1000 mV. For surface discharges, the weight should be lower
than for internal PD, e.g., 3, and 𝑆 , = 1 for no or negligible
PD, 𝑆 , = 2 for, e.g., PD amplitude up to 100 mV, 𝑆 , = 3 for
PD from 100 to 1000 mV, and 𝑆 , = 4 for values >1000 mV.
Note that to attribute such 𝑆 , PD location has to be
established, because amplitude attenuates considerably as a
function of the distance between PD site and measurement
device. Corona discharges must have low weight, because they
can be of unknown nature and not coming from the cable under
evaluation, or they could come from some problems as
corroded or loose ground connection, thus 𝑊 , = 1. 𝑆 , could
be in general taken equal to 2, because it is unlikely that corona
source can be identified and located.
Water trees can be split in two sub-classes, that is 𝑋 , =
𝑤𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦 and 𝑋 , = . The weight
could be 5 and 3, respectively, as a consequence of the fact that
long trees are more harmful for cable reliability than high
density of small trees. The values of 𝑆 , could be 1 for zero
trees, 𝑆 , = 2 for 𝑋 , ≤ 10 or 𝑋 , ≤ 0.1, 𝑆 , = 3 for
10 < 𝑋 , ≤ 10 or 0.1 < 𝑋 , ≤ 0.5, 𝑆 , = 4 for
𝑋 , > 10 or 𝑋 , > 0.5.
Let us note that the above values are purely an indication, based
on subjective evaluation and experience. Changing such values
does not affect at all the approach described here. Finally, it
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must be underlined that the diagnostic markers could be the
same for each sub-component, i.e. for cable and accessories,
with the limitation that the value of the dissipation factor,
tan(𝛿), measured on the cable system is largely affected by
cable rather than by joints or terminations.
V. HI CALCULATION EXAMPLE
The 𝐻𝐼 calculated according to eq. (10), with the above scores
and weight and further correction factor, is a number ranging
between 0 and 1, which can be associated with a simple traffic
light information, such as red when 0 < 𝐻𝐼 < 0.25, yellow
when 0.25 ≤ 𝐻𝐼 < 0.75 and green when 0.75 ≤ 𝐻𝐼 < 1.
This would be of immediate understanding for the asset
manager and it can be implemented easily in any SCADA
management software. Then, knowing the measurement time in
relation to Age, equations (6), (7) and (4) can be used to
estimate the residual like (at a given failure probability). As an
example, let us consider a MV cable system having zero PD in
the cable, but 250 mV of PD in one joint, dissipation factor
which is two times the initial one (thus score =2), thermography
showing a hot spot 10 °C higher than the thermal class in a
termination (thus causing accelerated thermal aging, so that the
weight could be =3 and the score = 3). Failure statistics for that
type of installation (cable material, brand, accessory material,
technology) indicates 𝐹𝑅 values of 20%, 45% and 35% for
cable, joints and terminations. From eq. (9), 𝐻𝐼 before
application of the last adjusting factor, 𝐴𝐹 , is 0.83.
Considering that the thermal history is benign, but the cable has
25 years of Age, a value for 𝐴𝐹 could be -0.1, so that the final
𝐻𝐼 becomes 𝐻𝐼 = 0.73. This value may fall is into the
yellow-light category, which indicates attention from the
maintenance manager side. The residual life, considering
design life of 30 years (failure probability 1%) and suitable life
model coefficients suitable for XLPE operating at 90°C, results
21.9 years, which is not a precise value, of course, but a sort of
quantitative indication able to support asset manager decision
about cable replacement vs maintenance policies. This result
indicates that the considered cable system is aging at slower rate
of that considered for the design, for example to due to better
insulation behavior under stress or lower-than-design operating
stresses.
VI. CONCLUSIONS
As stated in the introduction, this is not a deterministic approach
to estimating residual life because the basic information does
not exist to support such an approach. The approach proposed
in this paper is a small step toward a Bayesian rather than a
deterministic approach to life prediction. In the proposed
approach, information is weighted according to its expected
influence on aging. If the approach is widely adopted, it should
provide information on the uncertainty of the weighting factors
that could support the application of more rigorous Bayesian
statistics.
Based on this approach, asset and maintenance manager’s need
to have simple and clear output from diagnostic measurements
performed on cable systems can be addressed successfully.
This can support appropriate maintenance plans in order to
maximize the ROI, keeping the electric asset reliability at the
desired level.
Regarding the example provided in the paper, it must be
underlined that the choices of score and weight can be modified
to give more push to action after critical property worsening. If,
e.g., there is a case where PD amplitude reaches score 4 and,
hence, an action should be planned in short times even if the
global 𝐻𝐼 is not indicating red light yet, then the weight of PD
amplitude can be increased, e.g. to 10. In addition, health
indexes for each subcomponent can be taken as a reference for
the maintenance decision. Eventually, a final correction to
global 𝐻𝐼 (relevant to the whole cable system) could be
provided if one of the diagnostic properties associated to the
most harmful degradation mechanisms has become critical (e.g.
the 𝐻𝐼 could enter into an harmonic weighted mean with
the critical property(ies) score(s)).
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