MATH3602

THE COUNCIL OF COMMUNITY COLLEGES OF JAMAICA

BACHELOR OF SCIENCE EXAMINATION

SEMESTER I – 2017DECEMBER

PROGRAMME: BUSINESS STUDIES

COURSE NAME: OPERATIONS RESEARCH

CODE : MATH3602

YEAR GROUP: THREE

DATE: MONDAY, 2017 DECEMBER 11

TIME: 12:00 NOON– 2:00 P.M.

DURATION: 2 HOURS

EXAMINATION TYPE: FINAL

This Examination paper has 12 pages

INSTRUCTIONS:

1. THIS EXAMINATION PAPER CONSISTS OF TWO (2) SECTIONS:(A) AND (B)

2. ANSWERALLQUESTIONS FROM SECTION A

3. SECTION B CONSISTS OF FOUR (4) QUESTIONS. CHOOSE ANY TWO (2)

DO NOT TURN THIS PAGE UNTIL YOU ARE TOLD TO DO SO

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SECTION A

Instructions: On the computerized answer sheet provided, shade the letter that corresponds
with the CORRECT response for each of the following:

Use this table below to answer questions 1 – 2

Analysis of Variance
Source of Sum of Degrees of Mean F- Ratio
Variation Squares Freedom Square
Between 28.4 2 MSB F
Samples
Within Sample 56.4 n–k MSW
Error
Total 84.8 11
1. The values of the “Within Sample” Degrees of Freedom (n – k) and “Within Sample”
MeanSquare (MSW) are:

A. 9; 56.4
B. 9; 1.98
C. 9; 6.27
D. 10; 1.98

2. The value of F in the table is

A. 0.50
B. 1.98
C. 0.44
D. 2.26

3. The critical path of a network is the:

A. path with the most activities

B. path with the least activities
C. longest time path through the network
D. shortest time path through the network

4. Given an activity with multiple time estimate values of a = 12, m = 15, b = 20, calculate
the variance of the activity:

A. 10.67
B. 10.33
C. 1.95
D. 1.77

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5. An activity’s optimistic (a), most likely (m) and pessimistic (b) times are; 4, 12 and 18
days respectively, the PERT standard deviation for this activity is:

A. 2 .33
B. 5.44
C. 11.67
D. 34.00

6. The expected value from the times of the activity listed in question 5 is:

A. 2 .33
B. 5.44
C. 11.67
D. 34.00

7. A project has an expected completion time of 60 weeks and a standard deviation of 5

weeks. What is the probability that the project is finished in more than 70 weeks?

A. 0.98
B. 0.50
C. 0.48
D. 0.02

8. In inventory control, the time which elapses between placing an order and the arrival of
the inventory is called:

A. mean time
B. variance in time
C. lead time
D. cycle time

The following is a time series for the first 5 months of 2016

45, 50, 52, 48, 55

9. Calculate the three (3) point moving averages.

A. 20.3, 24, 25.3

B. 49, 50, 51.7
C. -110, -118, -130
D. 36.7, 39.3, 43.3

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Questions 10 and 11 refer to the following information

A cake manufacturer produces two kinds of cake X and Y, which are produced in three
stages; mixing, baking and packaging. The time available for each cake is as follows:

Mixing Baking Packaging

X 3 5 1
Y 1 4 3

The time available for mixing as well as packaging is 90 minutes each and for baking 180
minutes. The profit on each of cake X is $10 and on each of cake Y is $20.

10. The objective function is to:

A. maximize 90X + 180Y

B. maximize 5X + 4Y
C. maximize 10X + 20Y
D. maximize 20X + 10Y

11. Which of the following is NOT a constraint of the cake manufacturer?

A. 3X + Y ≤ 90
B. X + 3Y ≤ 90
C. 5X + 4Y ≤ 180
D. 3X + Y ≤ 180

Questions 12 to 13 are based on the information in Table 1 below.

Table 1

Time Actual Data Moving Totals Moving Average Deviation

of three (3) of three (3) (e)
1 24
2 28
3 33
4 37 ……. A ……… B …… C
5 98 32.67

12. The total at ‘A’ in the diagram above is

A. 72
B. 84
C. 85
D. 89

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13. The value of B in the table above is

A. 24.0
B. 28.3
C. 28.0
D. 29.7

14. The value of C is

A. 4.0
B. -0.3
C. 8.67
D. -1.7

Questions 15 and 16 are based on the information below.

The primal linear programming problem is

Maximize Z = 10x1 + 15x2

Subject to 3x1 + 4x2 ≤ 12
2x1 + x2 ≤ 4
And x1 ≥ 0, x2 ≥ 0

15. The objective function for the dual problem could be expressed as:

A. Minimize Z = 12x1 + 4x2

B. Maximize Z = 12x1 + 4y2
C. Minimize Z = 10x1 + 15x2
D. Maximize Z = 10x1 + 15y2

16. The non-negativity constraints in the primal problem are

i. 3x1 + 4x2 ≤ 12
ii. 2x1 + x2 ≤ 4
iii. x1 ≥ 0
iv. x2 ≥ 0

Which of the following is/are correct?

A. I, ii
B. I, ii
C. Ii, iii
D. Iii, iv

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Questions 17 and 18 are based on the information below.

The three factor estimates of completion time for an activity in project analysis is based
optimistic estimate (a), pessimistic estimate (b) and most likely estimate (m).

17. The expected completion time is represented by

A.
ab
6

a  4m  6
B.
6
C. ba
6
D.
a  4m  b
6
18. The variance of the activity is given by

A. (ba )
2

36
a b
2
B.
 
 6 

( a  b)
2
C.
6
D.
( a  4m  b)
2

36

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Questions 19 and 20 are based on the information below.

The graph in Fig.1 below represents a linear programming problem with objective function
Maximize z = 10x + 20y with feasible region OABC.

60

40 A 3x + y = 60

B (12, 24)

4x + 3y = 120

C x
0 20 30
Figure 1

19. The optimal solution for z is

i. 800
ii. 400
iii. 600

A. i only
B. ii only
C. iii only
D. i, ii, iii

20. The constraints are given by

A. 3x + y ≥ 60
4x + 3y ≥ 120

B. 3x + y ≥ 60
4x + 3y ≥ 120

C. 3x + y ≤ 60
4x + 3y ≤120

D. 3x + y ≥ 60
4x + 3y ≤ 120
(Total 20 marks)

END OF SECTION A
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SECTION B

Instructions: Answer any TWO (2) questions from this section.

JICC (Jamaica) Ltd. wishes to test the thickness of the insulation which covers three bands A, B
and C of the same wire which are competing in the market. Using a sample of five randomly
selected pieces of wire for each brand and carefully measuring the thickness of the insulation in
millimetres (mm) the following results were obtained: -

BRAND BRAND BRAND

A B C
2.8 2.5 2.0
2.7 2.9 2.8
1.9 1.8 3.2
2.2 3.5 2.9
2.4 2.7 2.5
Total 12.0 13.4 13.4

A. Calculate the total sum of squares error, (SST). (10 marks)

B. Calculate the between sample sum of squares error, (SSB). (6 marks)

C. Calculate the within sample sum of the squares error, (SSW). (2 marks)

D. Calculate the between sample mean square error, (MSB). (3 marks)

E. Calculate the within sample mean square error, (MSW). (2 marks)

F. Indicate the degrees of freedom for errors, and using the F-Distribution conduct a test at
the 5% level of significance. (7 marks)

(Total 30 marks)

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Question 2

The activities required to service a car at a dealer can be viewed as a mini-project summarised in
the following table:

Table 1: Activity Times and Predecessors

Minutes Required
Activity Description Predecessor Optimistic a Most Likely Pessimistic
Activity m b
A Drain Oil --- 2 3.5 5
B Replace Filter A 1 2 3
C Refill Oil B, E 2 2.5 4
D Check Tyres --- 2 3 4
E Wash Windows D 2 3 5
F Fill Fluids E 2 3 4
G Final Test C, F 0.5 1 1.5

The variability in times required to perform each activity is due to the different types, sizes and
conditions of the cars to be serviced. Round off times to two decimal places where fractional.

A. Draw the activity network for this problem (either AON or AOA). (8 marks)

B. Determine the Expected Time and Variance for each activity. (4 marks)

C. Show the activity schedule (ES, EF, LS, and LF) as well as slack (in table). (12 marks)

D. Determine and state the critical path for this project. This must be based on your work in
(C.) and not by inspection. (3 marks)

E. What are the expected time and the variance of the project? (3 marks)

(Total 30 marks)

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Question 3

The managers of ‘Upscale’ Promotions Ltd. need to make a decision regarding the venue to use
for the launch of their exiting new product line. They have developed a payoff table for three
locations: Altamont, Blaze, and Coast, and have also identified three states of nature (the crowd
response / turn-out) Large, Moderate and Low:

Payoffs are Profits

Crowd Response (State of Nature)
Locations Large Moderate Low
Altamont 750 370 –75
Blaze 650 410 – 20
Coast 600 450 120

A. What decision should “Upscale” managers make if the maximax criterion is used?
(1 mark)

B. What decision should “Upscale” managers make if the maximin criterion is used?
(1 mark)

C. What decision should “Upscale” managers make if the LaPlace criterion is used?
(4 marks)
D. Using the Hurwicz criterion with α = 0.65, what decision should “Upscale” managers
make? (4 marks)

E. Using a minmax regret approach, what decision should “Upscale” managers make?
(6 marks)

F. If the probability of getting out a large crowd is 43%, the probability of getting out a
moderate size crowd is 22%, and the probability of getting out a small crowd is 35%. Using
expected monetary values, what decision should be made and what is that optimal expected
value? (6 marks)
G. Construct the appropriate decision tree to help “Upscale” managers make the appropriate
decisions. This tree must be constructed in logical order with labels and net payoffs.
(4 marks)
H. What is the most should Upscale’s managers be willing to pay to obtain further (perfect)
information (EVPI) concerning the actual crowd turnout? (4 marks)

(Total 30 marks)

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Question 4

A. The Thrill Company wants to predict their sales for the first five months of the year 2016.

Month Actual Sales

Jan 15
Feb 10
Mar 12
Apr 15
May 20
Jun 18

i. Use the three-month moving average to forecast the demand from April to July in
the table above. (7 marks)

ii. Given an alpha (α) value of 0.35, use the exponential smoothing method of
forecasting to predict the demand from February to July in the table above.
(6 marks)

iii. Use the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) to compare the two methods and state
which is the most efficient one to use. (3 marks)

B. The Pentium Company makes three types of pens: ballpoints, mechanical pencils and
fountain pens. These are made from plastic, chrome and steel and the table gives the ounces
of each of these ingredients that are used to make one pen. The company also uses labour,
packaging and quality control techniques in the production process and the profitability of
these pens, shown in the table are derived from the accounting process after all inputs are
taken into account. For example, plastic cost $5.00 per ounce and this is taken into account
to get the profit.

Ballpoints Mechanical Pencils Fountain Pens Available (ozs)

Profit per unit $3 $3 $5
Plastic 1.2 1.7 1.2 1,000
Chrome 0.8 0 2.3 1,200
Stainless Steel 2 3 4.5 2,000

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i. Write the decision variables that will be used in the model and state the decision
that the manager must make. (4 marks)

ii. Write the objective function and state clearly what Pentium’s objective is.
(2 marks)

iii. Write down all the constraints that should be used to solve the problem presented.
(4 mark)

iv. Explain what the solution would mean in terms of the decision variables and the
objective function. (2 marks)

(Total 30 marks)

END OF EXAMINATION

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THE COUNCIL OF COMMUNITY COLLEGES OF JAMAICA

BACHELOR OF SCIENCE EXAMINATION

SEMESTER I – 2017 DECEMBER

PROGRAMMES: BUSINESS STUDIES

COURSE NAME: OPERATIONS RESEARCH

CODE : MATH3602

YEAR GROUP: THREE

DATE: MONDAY, 2017 DECEMBER 11

TIME: 12:00 NOON– 2:00 P.M.

DURATION: 2 HOURS

EXAMINATION TYPE: FINAL

SOLUTIONS
SECTION A

1 C 11 D 21
2 D 12 C 22
3 C 13 B 23
4 D 14 C 24
5 A 15 C 25
6 C 16 D 26
7 D 17 B 27
8 C 18 A 28
9 B 19 C 29
10 C 20 C 30

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SECTION B

Question # 1
a) JICC (Jamaica) Ltd. wishes to test the thickness of the insulation which covers three bands A, B and C of the
same wire which are competing in the market. Using a sample of five randomly selected pieces of wire for
each brand and carefully measuring the thickness of the insulation in millimetres (mm) the following results
were obtained:-

BRAND BRAND BRAND A B C

A B C x2 x2 x2
2.8 2.5 2 7.84 6.25 4
2.7 2.9 2.8 7.29 8.41 7.84
1.9 1.8 3.2 3.61 3.24 10.24
2.2 3.5 2.9 4.84 12.25 8.41
2.4 2.7 2.5 5.76 7.29 6.25
Total 12 13.4 13.4 38.8 103.52
n 5 5 5 15

i) Calculate the total sum of squares error, (SST) (6 marks)

SST = 103.52 – [(38.8)2 ÷ 15]

= 103.52 – 100.363
= 3.157
ii) Calculate the between sample sum of squares error, (SSB) (5 marks)

SSB = 122 + 13.42 – 38.82

+13.42 15
= 144
5 + 179.56+179.56
5 5 –
1,505.44
= 100.624 – 100.363
5 5 5 15
= 0.261
iii) Calculate the within sample sum of the squares error,(SSW) (2 marks)

SSW = 3.157 – 0.261

= 2.896
iv) Calculate the within sample mean square error, (MSW) (2 marks)

MSW = SSWn
= 2.896 ÷–(15
k – 3)
= 0.2413
v) Indicate the degrees of freedom for errors (1 mark)

Degrees of freedom v1 = k – 1 = 3 – 1 = 2
and v2 = n – k = 15 – 3 = 12
vi) Outline and state the hypotheses to be tested (2 marks)

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H0 : µ1 = µ2= µ3
H1 : µ1 ≠ µ2 ≠ µ3
vii) Using the F-Distribution conduct a test at the 5% level of significance(5 marks)

Level of Significance; α = 0.05

Degrees of Freedom; v1 = 2
v2 = 12
Critical Region ; F > 3.8853
0 3.8853
Test Statistic; Fcal = = 0.1305 ÷ 0.2413 = 0.5408
Conclusion; Do not MS B
Reject H0 – There is enough evidence at the 0.05 level of significance
MSW to say that there is no difference between the mean
thickness of the insulation. Fcal is < 3.8853
ANOVA _ SUMMARY TABLE
Source of Variation Degrees of Sum of Mean F- Ratio
Freedom Squares Square
Between Samples 2 0.261 MSB 0.5408
Within Sample Error n–k 2.896 MSW
Total n-1 3.157

Question # 2

The activities required to service a car at a dealer can be viewed as a mini-project summarised in the following table:

Table 1: Activity Times and Predecessors

Minutes Required
Activity Description Predecessor Optimistic a Most Likely m Pessimistic b
Activity
A Drain Oil --- 2 3.5 5
B
Replace Filter A 1 2 3
C
Refill Oil B, E 2 2.5 4
D
Check Tyres --- 2 3 4
E
Wash Windows D 2 3 5
F
Fill Fluids E 2 3 4
G
Final Test C, F 0.5 1 1.5

The variability in times required to perform each activity is due to the different types, sizes and conditions of the cars
to be serviced. Round off times to two decimal places where fractional.

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(a) Draw the activity network for this problem (either AON or AOA) [6 marks]

Network Diagram for ….. Showing Activities and Critical Path

0 3.5 3.5 5.5 6.17 8.84

A 3.5 B 2 C
2.67
0.997 4.50 4.50 6.50 6.50 9.17

9.17 0.17
0 0
G1
Start
9.17 0.17
0 0
0 3 3 6.17 6.17 9.17
D 3 E 3.17 F 3
0 3 3 6.17 6.17 9.17

(b) Determine the Expected Time and Variance for each activity. [4

marks]

Activity A B C D E F G
Mean 3.5 2 2.667 3 3.1667 3 1
Variance 0.25 0.111 0.111 0.111 0.25 0.111 0.0278

(c) Show the activity schedule (ES, EF, LS, and LF) as well as slack (in table). [4

marks]

Activity Schedule
Activities E(T) Var(T) ES EF LS LF Slack
A 3.5 0.25 0 3.5 0.997 4.50 1
B 2 0.111 3.5 5.5 4.50 6.50 1
C 2.667 0.111 6.17 8.84 6.50 9.17 0.33
D 3 0.111 0 3 0 3 0
E 3.1667 0.25 3 6.17 3 6.17 0
F 3 0.111 6.17 9.17 6.17 9.17 0
G 1 0.0278 9.17 10.17 9.17 10.17 0

(d) Determine and state the critical path for this project. This must be based on your work
in (c) and not by inspection. [4
marks]

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Critical Path ..... D E F G

(e) What are the expected time and the variance of the project? [3 marks]

Expected time ... 3 + 3.1667 + 3 + 1 = 10.1667 (minutes)

Variance ... 0.111 + 0.25 + 0.111 + 0.0278 = 0.4998

(f) What is the probability the project will be finished within 10 minutes? [4

marks]

P(T ≤ 10)
= P(Z ≤ (10 – 10.1667) / √0.4998)
= P(Z ≤ - 0.24)
= 0.5 – 0.0948
= 0.4052

Question # 3
The managers of ‘Upscale’ Promotions Ltd. need to make a decision regarding the venue to use for the launch of their
exiting new product line. They have developed a payoff table for three locations: Altamont, Blaze, and Coast, and
have also identified three states of nature (the crowd response / turn-out) Large, Moderate and Low:
Payoffs are Profits
Crowd Response (State of Nature)
Locations Large Moderate Low
Altamont 750 370 –75
Blaze 650 410 – 20
Coast 600 450 120

(a) What decision should ‘Upscale’ Promotion’s managers make if the maximax criterion is
used?
[1 mark]
MAXIMAX:
Altamont --- 750
Blaze --- 650
Coast --- 600
Decision: Choose Altamount

(b) What decision should ‘Upscale’ Promotions managers make if the maximin criterion is
used? [1 mark]
MAXIMIN:
Altamont --- – 75
Blaze --- – 20
Coast --- 120
Decision: Choose Coast

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(c) What decision should ‘Upscale’ Promotion’s managers make if the LaPlace criterion is
used? [2 marks]
LAPLACE:
Altamont --- (750 + 370 – 75) ÷ 3 = 348.33
Blaze --- (650 + 410 – 20) ÷ 3 = 346.66
Coast --- (600 + 450 + 120) ÷ 3 = 390.00
Decision: Choose Coast

(d) Using the Hurwicz criterion with α = 0.65, what decision should ‘Upscale’ Promotions’
managers make?
[3 marks]
Hurwicz: Altamont --- [(750×0.65) + ( – 75×0.35)] = 461.25
Blaze --- [(650×0.65) + (– 20×0.35) ] = 415.50
Coast --- [(600×0.65) + (120×0.35) ] = 432.00
Decision: Choose Altamont

(e) Using a minmax regret approach, what decision should ‘Upscale’ Promotions managers
make? [4 marks]
Regret Table
Locations Large Moderate Low
Altamont 0 80 195
Blaze 100 40 140
Coast 150 0 0
MINIMAX: Altamont --- 195
Blaze --- 140
Coast --- 150
Decision: Choose Blaze

(f) If the probability of getting out a large crowd is 43%, the probability of getting out a
moderate size crowd is 22%, and the probability of getting out a small crowd is 35%. Using
expected monetary values, what decision should be made and what is that optimal expected
value?
[3 marks]
EMV: Altamont = [(750×0.43) + (370×0.22) + ( –75×0.35)] = $377.65
Blaze = [(650×0.43) + (410×0.22) + (–20×0.35)] = $362.70
Coast = [(600×0.43) + (450×0.22) + (120×0.35)] = $399.00
Optimal EMV = $399.00
Decision: Choose Blaze

(g) Construct the appropriate decision tree to help ‘Upscale’ Promotions managers make the
appropriate decisions. This tree must be constructed in logical order with labels and net

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payoffs.
[4 marks]

750
Large
$377.6 0.43
5
0.22 Moderate
2 370
0.35 Low
Altamont –75

Large 700
$422.70 $422.70
0.43
1 Blaze 0.22 Moderate
3 410
0.35 Low
Coast
90

$410 Large 600

0.43
4 0.22 Moderate
500
0.35 Low

120

(h) What is the most should ‘Upscale’ Promotions ’s managers be willing to pay to obtain
further (perfect) information (EVPI) concerning the actual crowd turnout? [2
marks]
EVWoPI = EMV = $399.00
EVWiPI = (750×0.43) + (450×0.22) + (120×0.35)
= $463.50
EVPI = EVWiPI – EVWoPI
= 463.50 – 399.00
= $64.50
Question # 4
The Thrill Company wants to predict their sales for the first five months of the year 2016.
3-month Exponential
Actual moving avg |e| Smoothing |e|
MONTH Sales (F) (F)

Jan 15 15.00

Feb 10 15.00 5.00

Mar 12 13.25 1.25

Apr 15 12.33 2.67 12.81 2.19
May 20 12.33 7.67 13.58 6.42

Jun 18 15.67 2.33 15.83 2.17

i. Use the three-month moving average to forecast the demand from April to July in the table above.
[2 marks]

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ii. Given an alpha (α) value of 0.35, use the exponential smoothing method of forecasting to predict the
demand from February to July in the table above. [5 marks]

F+1 = F1 – α(A1 – F1)

iii. Use the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) to compare the two methods and state which is the most efficient
one to use. [3 marks]

MAD = Sum[|A – F|/n] ; Moving avg. = 4.22 ; Exponential Sm. = 3.41

(b) The Pentium Company makes three types of pens: ballpoints, mechanical pencils and fountain pens. These
are made from plastic, chrome and steel and the table gives the ounces of each of these ingredients that are
used to make one pen. The company also uses labour, packaging and quality control techniques in the
production process and the profitability of these pens, shown in the table are derived from the accounting
process after all inputs are taken into account. For example, plastic cost $5.00 per ounce and this is taken
into account to get the profit.

Ballpoints Mechanical Pencils Fountain Pens Available (ozs)

Profit per unit $3 $3 $5
Plastic 1.2 1.7 1.2 1,000
Chrome 0.8 0 2.3 1,200
Stainless Steel 2 3 4.5 2,000

i) Write the decision variables that will be used in the model and state the decision that the manager
must make. [3 marks]

Decision Variables: B = the number of Bollpoint pens to make and sell

M = the number of Mechanical pencils to make and sell
F = the number of Fountain pens to make and sell
The Decision: The combination of the decision variables to make and sell in order to
maximize profit for the organization.
ii. Write the objective function and state clearly what Pentium’s objective is. [2 marks]

Objective Function = 3B + 3M + 5F
Objective: Maximize profit

iii. Write down all the constraints that should be used to solve the problem presented. [4 marks]

Plastic Constraint : 1.2B + 1.7M + 1.2F ≤ 1,000

Chrome Constraint : 0.8B + 2.3F ≤ 1,200
Stainless Steel Constraint : 2B + 3M + 4.5F ≤ 2,000
Non-Negative Constraint : B, M, F ≥ 0
iv. Explain what the solution would mean in terms of the decision variables and the objective
function. [2 marks]
The solution for this model would indicate how much (what combination) of: B, M and F to
produce and sell given our limited resources.
v. Write and explain two assumptions of Linear Programming Models. [2 marks]

• Conditions of certainty exist…..

• Proportionality in objective function and constraints
• Additivity (total of all activities equals sum of individual activities)

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• Divisibility assumption that solutions need not necessarily be in whole numbers

(integers)

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