PLEA 2022 SANTIAGO

Will Cities Survive?

How climate trends with urban morphology impact the

thermal performance of buildings
EMELI LALESCA APARECIDA DA GUARDA ¹ RENATA MANSUELO ALVES DOMINGOS ² RAYNER
MAURÍCIO E SILVA MACHADO3 MARTIN ÓRDENES MIZGIER3 FERNANDO OSCAR RUTTKAY PEREIRA4

1,2,4,5
Federal University of Santa Catarina, Environmental Comfort Laboratory (LabCON)
3
Federal University of Santa Catarina, Energy Efficiency in Buildings Laboratory (LabEEE)

ABSTRACT: Climate change is a critical global challenge in the 21st century, and urban design can increase these
impacts. Thus, this work aims to evaluate through simulations, the influence of climate change on the internal thermal
conditions of office buildings, considering different urban morphologies. The methodological process consists of: i)
structuring and defining nine urban scenarios; ii) climate files Generation, using as a basis the RCP4.5 and climate
projection of 2035 and iii) definition of the limits of thermal comfort and discomfort through the adaptive model. The
results show that climate change will impact the internal conditions of buildings, mainly in terms of thermal
acceptability for users. Urban scenarios 1, 2, and 3 exceed the upper limit in September, presenting discomfort due to
heat in Cuiabá in the historical period and 2035. In Florianópolis, the month of May, which was below the lower limit
in the historical period, in 2035 falls within the comfort range, i.e., becoming warmer. It is noteworthy that the influence
of shading, as in scenarios 1A, 2C, and 3A of the surroundings, reduces heat discomfort and increases the hours of
thermal comfort in the module.
KEYWORDS: Climate Change, Adaptive Comfort, Urban Scenarios.

1. INTRODUCTION population is urban, and this number is expected to

In our cities, resilience, livability, and well-being are
influenced by continuous urban densification, global and
local climate change, and extreme heatwaves. The high
temperatures in the future will lead to an increase in the
energy demand of cooling in the buildings to maintain
the comfort conditions in the buildings [1]. Thus, these
changes impose new impacts on buildings and cities due
to the increase in the average global temperature and
changes in other microscale climatological variables,
which consequently increase the internal temperature
of buildings.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) publishes reports in order to investigate the
impact of climate change on energy resources, human
activities, and extreme events, such as the last fully
released, namely the Fifth Climate Change Assessment
Report (AR5) [2]. Four scenarios of GHG emissions, air
pollutant emission, and land use are described: one
stringent mitigation scenario (RCP2.6), two intermediate
scenarios (RCP4.6 and RCP6.0), and one scenario
considering high-emissions (RCP8.5).
Furthermore, cities are the main contributors to
climate change, but at the same time, urban areas are
also among the most vulnerable places in the world [3].
Because of this, in Brazil, more than two-thirds of the
increase in the coming years, enhancing the impacts of
climate change.
Urban design can have a significant impact on climate
change [3]. Furthermore, Mavrogianni et al. [4] stated
that the shape of a building has a considerable effect on
the variation of the indoor air temperature of buildings,
especially when they are in an urban context. Thus,
planning the urban morphology of the built environment
on an urban scale is a fundamental issue for climate
adaptation [5]. In the coming decades, sustainable urban
planning must face two significant challenges:
promoting adaptation measures to mitigate the local
effects of climate change and moving towards a new
energy paradigm.
In this context, this work aims to evaluate the
influence of climate change on the internal thermal
conditions of buildings, considering different urban
morphologies.
2. METHODOLOGY
The methodological process consists of: i) structuring
and defining urban scenarios; ii) climate files generations
iii) definition of the limits of thermal comfort and
discomfort and iv) simulation of the thermal
performance of the building in the naturally ventilated consolidate this process of generating future weather
condition, considering the urban morphology (Figure 1). files, the research group Arup North America and Argos
Analytics developed the WeatherShift™ tool. This tool is
Figure 1: based on the combination of 14 General Circulation
methodological process Models (GCMs).
The tool provides the use of two emission scenarios,
RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from the Fifth Report (AR5) of the
IPCC and three future climate projections, divided into
20-year time slices, as follows: 2035 (period 2026-2045),
2065 (period 2056-2075) and 2090 (period 2080-2099)
and presents as results future climate files in EPW
format, widely used in simulations of thermal and energy
2.1 Scenarios
performance of buildings and cities. For this research,
Modules defined the scenarios, and their dimensions
the 50% probability level represented climate change
are described in table 1, considering nine-block
and the RCP4.5 emission scenario for the 2035 climate
configurations in this research.
projection.
Table 1:
Dimensions of the analyzed scenarios 2.2 Characterization of regions and study module
Urban The cities of Cuiabá-MT, located in the Brazilian
Module
ID environment savanna (central region), and Florianópolis-SC, located in
(m)
(m) the south of the country in the Atlantic Forest biome,
were taken as the object of study. The climate profiles of
1A 3x3x3 3x3x3 these cities are classified as Tropical (Aw) and Tropical
Humid (Cfa), respectively, in the Koppen-Geiger
classification.
1B 3x3x3 3x3x6 The Inmetro Normative Instruction for the Energy
Efficiency Classification of Commercial, Service, and
Public Buildings (INI-C) [7] was taken as a reference for
1C 3x3x3 3x6x3 the insertion of constructive characteristics and pattern
of use of the module under analysis. Thus, he considered
the module as an office building, with internal and
2A 3x6x3 3x6x3 external mortar walls (2.5cm), ceramic brick (9cm) and
fiber cement tile roof (1cm), attic with resistance > 5cm,
and solid concrete slab (10cm ) as lining. The walls and
2B 3x6x3 3x3x3 roof have an absorbance of 0.5 and 0.8, respectively. The
openings were considered the width and length of the
2C 3x6x3 3x3x6 module, with a sill and height of 1.0m. A single colorless
glass of 6mm was used, with a solar factor of 0.82 and
transmittance of 5.7W/m².K.
3A 3x3x6 3x3x6
2.2 Computer simulation
EnergyPlus, version 9.3, was used, considering
3B 3x3x6 3x3x3
occupancy patterns, lighting power densities, and
equipment according to (INI-C) [7]. The power density of
3C 3x3x6 3x6x3 lighting and equipment is 14.1W/m² and 15W/m². The
occupancy density is 10m²/person, 10 hours, and 260
occupancy days. The modules were considered naturally
2.3 Climate files generation ventilated and with the windows open according to the
The Morphing methodology [6] has been widely used occupancy schedule.
in current literature to generate future climate files. This
methodology modifies a set of historical climate 2.4 Indicator of thermal comfort and discomfort
variables of 8,760 hours per year and incorporates the The limits of comfort and thermal discomfort by heat
effects of global warming in the climate files, allowing by cold, on the criteria described by Dear and Brager and
the projection of the climate. However, to optimize and presented in Standard 55 [8], were used as comfort and
thermal discomfort indicators for naturally ventilated
buildings. Figure 2:
Thus, the hours of comfort and discomfort were Monthly average temperatures and upper and lower limits in
computed considering the monthly average of external Cuiabá in the historical period
temperature (30 days) for Cuiabá and Florianópolis in 33
31

Average temperature (°C)

the historical period and climate projection of 2035. The
29
comfort levels are given by the neutral temperature (Tn)
27
are defined in Equation 1. Moreover, the thermal
25
acceptability limit adopted in this research is 80% 23
described in Equations 2 and 3. 21
19
Tn = 17.8 + 0.31 x TEmed (1) 17
15
Tupper =Tn + 3.5 (2)

Feb

Ago
Apr

Dez
Jan

Jun

Sep
Jul
Mar

Mai

Out

Nov
Tlowr =Tn - 3.5 (3)
1A 1B 1C
Where: TC – Neutral temperature (◦C); 2A 2B 2C
TEmed – Prevailing mean outdoor 3A 3B 3C
lower limits upper limits
temperature (◦C);
Figure 3:
Tupper – Upper limite (◦C);
Monthly average temperatures and upper and lower limits in
Tlower – Lower limite (◦C).
Cuiabá in RCP 4.5 in the period 2035
33
3. RESULTS Average temperature (°C) 31
3.1 Analysis of the internal thermal conditions of the 29
modules in the historical and future scenario 27
Neutral temperatures will increase in the future 25
scenario of climate change, with an increase of 0.42°C in 23
Cuiabá and 0.80°C in Florianópolis (Table 2). 21
19
Table 2: 17
Temperature and neutral and adaptive comfort limits 15
Cuiabá
Feb

Ago
Apr

Dez
Jan

Jun

Sep
Jul
Mar

Out
Mai

Nov
RCP 4.5 Current 2035
1A 1B 1C
Tn (°C) 26.01 26.43 2A 2B 2C
Upper 28.51 29.93 3A 3B 3C
Lower 23.51 22.93 lower limits upper limits

Florianópolis
RCP 4.5 Current 2035
Tn (°C) 21.00 21.80
Upper 27.82 28.07
Lower 20.82 21.07
In Cuiabá, in the historical period, it is observed that
in all urban scenarios, they are within the range of
comfort limits, except for September, which exceeds the
upper limit, presenting thermal discomfort due to heat
(Figure 2). Scenarios 1, 2, and 3 cross the upper limit in
September with average indoor temperatures above
29.1°C, 29.05°C, and 28.9°C, respectively.
Considering the impacts of climate change, there is
an increase in internal temperatures in all months of the
year, consequently making September warmer.
However, it should be noted that the upper limits
increase by +1.42°C, while the lower limits decrease by -
0.58°C. However, they fall within the comfort ranges in
all months, except September (Figure 3).
In Florianópolis, in the historical period, in all urban
scenarios, it experienced cold discomfort from May to
September, with average monthly indoor temperatures
below 20.7°C (Figure 4). In the other months, the
scenarios were within the range of thermal comfort.
In future climate projections, internal temperatures
become warmer, reducing the months in which the
scenarios are below the upper limit; with the impacts of
climate change, the month of May becomes warmer,
staying within the comfort range. Thus, the months of
July to September are below the lower limit, with
average monthly internal temperatures below 21.07°C
(Figure 5). In addition, it is observed that February and
December showed an average increase of around 1°C.
Figure 4: 3.2 Analysis of the comfort and discomfort conditions
Monthly average temperatures and upper and lower limits in of the modules in the historical and future scenario
Florianópolis in the historical period They are analyzing the conditions of thermal comfort
33 and discomfort through the internal temperatures of the
31
Average temperature (°C)

modules and their formats of urban scenarios.

29
Scenario 1A, in Cuiabá, had the highest days in heat
27
discomfort, from 92 days in the historical period to 136
25
23
days in 2035, increasing by 32%. Consequently, hours in
21
comfort decreased by -18% compared to the historical
19 period, in scenario 1A (Figure 6). In addition, it is
17 noteworthy that in all scenarios, the hours of heat
15 discomfort increased in future climate projections,
Feb

Ago
Apr

Dez
Jan

Jun

Sep
Mar

Jul
Mai

Out

Nov
especially for the scenarios that present larger areas of
1A 1B 1C
facade and openings exposed to radiation, such as 1A,
2A 2B 2C 2B, 3B, and 3C.
3A 3B 3C
lower limits upper limits
Figure 6:
Days in comfort and thermal discomfort in Cuiabá
Figure 5:
400
Monthly average temperatures and upper and lower limits in
Florianópolis in the RCP 4.5 in the period 2035 350
33 300
31 250
Average temperature (°C)

29 Days
200
27 150
25 100
23
50
21
0
19

2A
1A

3A

1A
1B
1C
2A
2B
2C

3B
3C

1B
1C

2B
2C
3A
3B
3C
17
Historical RCP4.5-2035
15
Feb

Ago
Apr

Dez
Jan

Jun

Sep
Jul
Mar

Mai

Out

Nov

Heat discomfort Comfort Cold discomfort

1A 1B 1C
2A 2B 2C In Florianópolis, urban scenarios 1 and 2 had the
3A 3B 3C
lower limits upper limits
longest days in cold discomfort, with an average of 152
days in the historical period (Figure 7). This fact may have
occurred because the ceiling height of the module is
In this context, it is observed that the impacts of
3.0m, while modules 3 A, B, and C have a ceiling height
climate change will influence the internal temperatures
of 6.0m. It is noteworthy that they did not exceed six
of buildings, increasing the months that are at risk of
days in heat discomfort in all scenarios in the historical
thermal discomfort. In Cuiabá, this risk occurred in
period.
December, January, and February, which increased by
Considering climate changes, hours in comfort
around two °C in RCP4.5 in 2035. In Florianópolis, this
increase by around 14% in scenarios 1 and 2 and by 15%
risk occurred in December and February.
in scenarios 3 (Figure 7). The days in discomfort due to
In addition, it is noteworthy that the urban scenarios
cold decrease and, consequently, the days in discomfort
presented internal temperatures with minimal
due to heat increase about the historical period.
differences; however, scenario 3A presented lower
Scenarios 1 and 2 had longer days in heat discomfort,
internal temperature values, which can be justified by
with an average of 14 days.
the fact that the module is more shaded by the
surroundings. Scenarios 1A, 1C and 2A, and 2B present
higher values of internal temperature in all analyses, as
they present facades exposed to radiation and little
influence of the surrounding shading.
Figure 7: REFERENCES
Days in comfort and thermal discomfort in Florianópolis 1. T. Van Hoof; et al. (2016). Analysis of the predicted effect of
400 passive climate adaptation measures on energy demand for
cooling and heating in a residential building. Energy, 94, p.811-
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820.
300 2. IPCC (2014) IPCC Fifth Assessment Report.
250 3. M. Vukmirovic; et al. (2019). The Improvement of the
Days

200 Comfort of Public Spaces as a Local Initiative in Coping with

150 Climate Change. Sustainability, 11.
4. A. Mavrogiani; et al. (2014). The impact of occupancy
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patterns, occupant-controlled ventilation and shading on
50 indoor overheating risk in domestic environments. Building
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2A

1A

2A

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3C
1B
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1B
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2B
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3B
5. T. A. L. Martins; et al. (2016). Sensitivity analysis of urban
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Heat discomfort Comfort Cold discomfort
6. S. E. Belchr. J. N. Hacker; D. S. Powell (2005). Constructing
design weather data for future climates. Building Services
In this context, it is observed that in hot climates,
Engineering Research and Technology, 26, p. 49–61
such as Cuiabá, the days in thermal discomfort increase 7. INI-C (2021). Instrução Normativa Inmetro para a
and the days in comfort decrease, in both urban Classificação de Eficiência Energética de Edificações
scenarios. Moreover, in climates where the Comerciais, de Serviços e Públicas. Brazil.
predominance in the historical period was discomfort 8. ASHRAE (2013). ASHRAE Standard 55: Thermal Envir.
from cold, with the influence of climate change, this is Conditions for Human Occupancy. 2013.
reduced, increasing discomfort from heat, as in
Florianópolis.

4. CONCLUSION
Climate change will impact the internal conditions of
buildings, mainly on issues of thermal acceptability for
users. Thus, it is observed that the limits of acceptability
increase in future climate projections; however, even
considering that the user adapts, urban scenarios 1, 2,
and 3 exceed the upper limit in September, presenting
discomfort due to heat, in Cuiabá in the historical period
and 2035.
In Florianópolis, the impacts of climate change
increase external temperatures, influencing internal
temperatures and, consequently, reducing discomfort
due to cold. Thus, the month of May, which was below
the lower limit in the historical period, in 2035 falls
within the comfort range, that is, becoming warmer.
It is noteworthy that the influence of shading, as in
scenarios 1A, 2C, and 3A of the surroundings, reduces
the hours of discomfort due to heat and increases hours
in thermal comfort in the module. Well, as the influence
of the ceiling height as in scenarios 3. Thus, the influence
of the urban environment can be substantial for the
mitigation of these effects through the increase of
shading and reduction of exposed areas.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
To the collaborative project of Arup North America Ltd
and Argos Analytics, for making the Weathrshift tool and
future weather files used in this research available.