PROBABILITY THEORIES

By

OYELEYE, A. F.
Dept of Public Health & Preventive Medicine
Faculty of Veterinary, Medicine
University of Nigeria
 Highlight

Elements of probability theory

● Frequency concept

● Definition of experiments, trials, outcome and events

● Simple and compound events

● Basic laws of probability (Addition and

Multiplication)
 Probability: The Limit in Man

▪ Probability is the likelihood that an event will occur.

▪ Most of the decisions that affect our daily lives are

based on likelihood and not on certainties.

▪ It plays a fundamental role in decision making

where we are uncertain of the outcome of a decision.
 Relevance & Application

▪ Medicine is an inexact science

▪ Basic to statistical inference on survival patterns.

▪ Basic to Decision making for patients’ management in the

face of numerous uncertainties such as: Diagnosis
Treatment
Prognosis
▪ Allows us to measure the degree of uncertainty

▪ Allows translation of data into decisions about nature of

our world.
 Rationale in Medicine

▪ A patient may want to know the chances of his survival

before accepting a particular medical/surgical treatment.

▪ For example, a depressed patient once said, she had read

that the chances were 60 percent that she would respond
to the antidepressant a doctor had prescribed for her.

▪ "That means that 60 percent of the time I will feel better on

this, right?" she asked.

▪ Well, not exactly. The doctor explained that if 10 people

with a depression just like hers walked into my office,
about 6 would be expected to respond to that
 Rationale cont.

▪ The dynamics of a clinical situation will determine

the probability of a given patient developing a
specific disease.
▪ A smoker has a higher probability of getting lung
cancer than a non-smoker, but an individual will
either get it or not.
Some smokers never get lung cancer and some non-
smokers do. The reason is that smoking is not the
only factor that leads to lung cancer. The more
factors we understand (e.g; age, exposure to toxins
and genetics), the more precise the probability
estimate will become.
 PROBABILITY AND DECISION MAKING

▪ Have you ever had a difficult decision to make as a

medical practitioner or an individual?

▪ Did you end up making decision based on your

intuition?

▪ Most times, the decisions we make are the

wrong ones.

▪ Sometimes decision making may be hard.

Why do we have difficulty in decision making?

▪ Because of its complexity.

▪ Inherent uncertainties in the situation.

▪ A decision maker may be working towards multiple

objectives.

▪ If different perspectives leads to difficult conclusions

▪ More importantly we are dealing with animal life(

and indirectly human’s).
 Concept
A. Applies exclusively to a future event

B.        Probability statements are numeric, defined in the range 0 to 1,

never more and never less

C.       Defined as the ratio of the number of ways the specified event
can occur to the total number of equally likely events that can
occur

D.        P(E), can be defined as the proportion of times a favorable event

will occur in a long series of repeated trials:

P(E) = n/N = number of favourable outcome

number of possible outcome
 Three Approaches For Defining Probability

▪ Classical or Priori Probability

This is a type of probability which we quote from prior
information. E.g if 13 of 60 who sat for VPH 527 failed in
2016, what’s the chance of passing this year
▪ Empirical or Frequency concept
This is type of probability we calculate based on
information we collect. No of times the event occurs in a
long series of trials.
▪ Subjective
This is the probability based on our own judgement. i.e
on our personal experience or believe.
 The Approaches

● The Frequentists say probability should be assessed

in purely objective terms

● No room for subjectivity on the part of individual

researchers

● Knowledge about probabilities comes from the

relative frequency of a large number of trials
✓ this is a good model for coin tossing
✓ not so useful for archaeologists, where many of the events that
interest them are unique…
 Answer the following questions.

▪ What is the probability that a fair coin, when tossed will

come down head?
▪ Of the last 10 operations performed by a surgeon, 2 have
been successful. What is the probability that the next
operation will not be successful?
▪ In VTH, there are 500 Vet. Officers of which 100 are
females. What is the probability that a Vet. Officer chosen
at random will be a female?
▪ What is the probability that the next nurse you meet will be
a female?
▪ In Nigeria, out of 1,000 live births, 81 died before the age
of one (NDHS,2008). What is the probability that a live
born child in Nigeria will die before age one.
 ANSWERS

▪ Priori (1/2)

▪ Empirical (8/10)

▪ Empirical (100/500)

▪ Subjective????

▪ Empirical (81/1,000)
 Properties of Probability

▪ It is non-negative
▪ P(E) = 0; This means the event cannot take place
▪ P(E) = 1; This means the event is sure to take place
▪ 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1
0 = certain non-occurrence
1 = certain occurrence
▪ The sum of all probabilities must equal 1 = 100%
 Probability Terminologies
▪ Statistical Experiment: Repeated trials
▪ Trial: This is act of any experiment.
▪ Outcome: This is the result of a trial eg Male or
female.
▪ Event: This is a defined occurrence of interest eg
Male births.
▪ Sample space: This is the set of all possible
outcomes of an experiment.
▪ Equally likely: if all outcomes have equal
chance of occurrence. E.g tossing a coin, a die,
going for a surgical operation.
Probability Thermometer

1.0
Hig
h
0.5 Fai
r
Low
0.0
 Types of Event

▪ Simple Event:
This is an event with only one possible
outcome.
▪ Compound Event:
An event with more than one possible
outcome.
▪ Complement of Event:
This is an event which occurs when and
only when the other event fails to occur
Complement of an Event

■ An event which occurs

when and only when the
other event does not occur
 Example of complement of event

The manifest of an aircraft that crashed

near Lagos sometime ago carrying 100
passengers consists of 78 survivors and
22 deaths. What is the probability that a
name drawn from the list will be a
survivor?
- Survival is the complement of Death.
- Success is the complement of Failure.
- A is the complement of A
 Solution to complement
problem
Pr (A) + Pr ( ) = 1
Pr (A) = 1 - Pr ( )
The probability of the complement of A is
equal to the complement of the probability
of
e.g. If Probability of Females (F) is 15/40 ,
then probability of its complement Males
(M) is
Pr (M) = 1- Pr (F) = 25/40
Probability of Two or More Events

COMPOSITE EVENT A AND B

➢ THE EVENT A AND B OCCURS IF BOTH

EVENT A AND EVENT B OCCUR AT THE SAME
TIME.
Distribution of 800 newborns by sex and
congenital abnormalities
 Questions on Newborns:

CALCULATE:

(I) PROBABILITY OF A NEWBORN BEING AN ABNORMAL

MALE
(II) PROBABILITY OF A NEWBORN BEING A NORMAL BOY
(III) PROBABILITY OF A NEWBORN BEING A NORMAL
GIRL
(IV) PROBABILITY OF A NEWBORN BEING AN
ABNORMAL GIRL
(V) PROBABILITY OF A NEWBORN BEING A FEMALE
(VI) PROBABILITY OF A NEWBORN BEING A BOY
 Single Event

● To calculate the probability (P) of a single

event (A) happening
● For example, to find the probability of throwing a six on a
die:
● the number of possible events
● formula: P(A) = ____________________________
● the number of possible equally likely outcomes

● P(A) = the number of sixes on the die

● the number of sides on the die
● = 0.1667 (or 16.67%)
 Independent Events
● To calculate the probability of event (A) and
● event (B) happening (independent events)
● For example, if you have two identical packs of cards (pack A and pack
B), what is the probability of drawing the ace of spades from both
packs?
Formula: P(A) x P(B)
● P(pack A) = 1 card, from a pack of 52 cards = 1/52 = 0.0192
● P(pack B) = 1 card, from a pack of 52 cards = 1/52 = 0.0192
● P(A) x P(B) = 0.0192 x 0.0192 = 0.00037
● This is called the rule of multiplication.
● In the above example, events A and B are independent of each other.
This
● means that one event happens regardless of the other, and its outcome
is not related to the other.
 Conditional Event
● To calculate the probability of event (A) and
event (B) happening (conditional events)
● Sometimes probabilities are conditional, which means that one
● probability relies on another having already happened.
● What is the probability of drawing the ace of spades and the queen of
clubs consecutively from a single pack of cards?
● Formula: P(A) x P(B | A) We already know that the probability of
drawing the ace of spades from a pack of 52 cards is 1/52 = 0.0192, so
P(A) =0.0192.
● The chances of now drawing the queen of clubs are a little higher,
● because one less card is left in the pack, so the probability P(B | A) is
now 1/51 = 0.0196.
● P(A) x P(B A) = (1/52) x (1/51) = 0.0192 x 0.0196 = 0.0004
● .
 Mutual Events

● Probabilities can be mutually exclusive. This means that one event

prevents another event from happening.
● For example, throwing a die once will result in either a 1, or a 2, or a 3,
or a 4, or a 5, or a 6 - but only one number can be obtained. Therefore
throwing a 5 rules out any other number. In such cases, the rule of
addition is used.
● For example, what is the probability of throwing either a six or a five
on a die:
● Formula: P(A) + P(B)
P(A) = 0.1667
P(B) = 0.1667
P(A) + P(B) = 0.1667 + 0.1667 = 0.333 (or 33.3%)

● This is called the rule of addition or the additive rule.

 Non-exclusive Event
● To calculate the probability of either event (A) or event (B)
happening (where the events are not mutually exclusive)

● Suppose that a local study finds that 90% of people aged over 60 years
in Epitown suffer from at least one common cold during a one-year
period, and 20% suffer from heartburn at least once. What is the
probability that any person over 60 years of age will suffer from either
common cold or heartburn? We shall assume that common cold and
heartburn occur independently of each other.

● Using the rule of addition produces a probability of 0.9 + 0.2, which is

equal to 1.1. This cannot be correct, since we already know that a
probability can never be more than 1.0.

• In this situation, we use a different formula:

 Cont…

● P(A) + P(B) - P(both)

● P(A) = 0.9 (common cold)
● P(B) = 0.2 (heartburn)
● P (both) = 0.9 x 0.2 = 0.18
(since we are assuming that they are independent).
● So P(A) + P(B) - P(both) = (0.9 + 0.2) - 0.18
● = 1.1-0.18
● = 0.92 (or 92%)
● In this example, then, there is a probability of 0.92 (or 92%) that any
person
● aged over 60 years in Epitown will suffer from either common cold or
● heartburn during a one-year period
 Probability Distributions
➢ Distribution of the probability of all possible outcomes of a
random variable. This is the arrangement of the events and
their corresponding probabilities in a tabular form.
➢ Example: In a ward there are 5 patients. If 2 are shortsighted
and 3 are longsighted. If two patients are selected at random
without replacement. Form a probability distribution table for
the random variable x, where x is the number of shortsighted
patients selected.
Presentations of probability distribution:
➢ Table.
➢ Diagram.
➢ Mathematical Equation.
 Discrete Probability Distribution
This is the probability distribution of a random that can assume
only discrete values.

TYPES OF DPD
➢ Geometric Distribution
➢ Binomial Distribution
➢ Poisson Distribution
➢ Hyper-geometric Distribution
 Binomial Distribution
NOTE: BINOULLI TRIALS
Binomial distribution is a Binoulli distribution repeated n-times.
The random variable X is said to have binomial distribution
with two parameters n,p written as X~B(n,p).
Properties:
➢ Possible Outcome of a trial.
➢ Trial has only two possible outcomes-dichotomous.
➢ Trials repeated many times – n.
➢ Successive trials are independent.
➢ Same probability of success and failure in each trial.
(P) and 1- P respectively.
➢ Distribution of number of successes (r) in n trials is
binomial i.e a BINOMIAL FAMILY.
 Binomial Formula

Pr (r successes) = n! r n-r
p q
(n - r)! r!
Where q= 1 - p
n factorial = n(n-1)(n-2)(n-3)……2x1
Summary Statistics for Binomial
Distribution

Mean = E (r) = np
Variance (r) = npq

Coeff. Of skewness = (q-p)/√(npq)

Where q=1-p
 Example on Binomial Distribution
➢ Albino rats used to study the hormonal regulation
of a metabolic pathway are injected with a drug
that inhibits body synthesis of protein. Generally, 4
out of 20 rats die from the drug before the
experiment is over. If 10 animals are treated with
the drug, what is the probability that at least 8 will
be alive at the end of the experiment.
➢ Two parents each have the gene for cystic fibrosis.
For each of their children, the probability of
developing cystic fibrosis is ¼. If there are 4
children, find the probability that exactly 2 develop
cystic fibrosis. Here n=4
Solution 1

P=4/20 = 1/5 q = 1 - 1/5 = 4/5 Then, n=10

P(X=x) = nCx Px qn-x

P(X ≥ 8) = P (x=8) + P (x=9) + P (x=10)

= nCx Px qn-x + n
Cx Px qn-x + n
Cx Px qn-x

= 10C8 (1/5)8 (4/5)10-8 + 10

C9 (1/5)9 (4/5)10-9 +

10
C10 (1/5)10 (4/5)10-10

=
Solution 2
P=¼ q=¾, n=4

P (X = x) = nCx Px qn-x

P (X = 2) = 4C2 (¼)2 (¾)4-2

= ……………….
 Example on Binomial Distribution
➢ Twenty five individuals, each susceptible to
tuberculosis come in contact with a carrier of the
disease. The probability that the disease will be
passed from the carrier to any given subject is
0.10. How many are expected to contract the
disease?
➢ If 10% of the population is colour blind. What is the
prob. That in a screening of 8 students. What are
the chances that 3 or more are colour blind?
Solution 3

E (X) = np

1
= 25 x /10

=
Solution 3

P = 10% = 1/10 q = 9/10 n=8 x≥3

P ( X ≥ 3 ) = 1 - P ( X < 3)

= 1 - [ P (X = 0) + P ( X = 1) + P (X = 2 ) ]

= 1 - [ 8C0 (1/10)0 (9/10)8-0 + 8C1 (1/10)1 (9/10)8-1 +

8
C2 (1/10)2 (9/10)8-2 ]

= …………………
 Poisson Process
It is an experiment in which discrete events are observed in a
continuous interval of time, space & volume such that:

➢ INTERVALS ARE INDEPENDENT

➢ TRIAL SIZE IS LARGE AND EVENTS RARE

NOTE:
➢ POISSON CAN BE APPLIED WHEN N IS LARGE OR NOT READILY
OBTAINABLE.
➢ P(PROBABILITY OF SUCCESS) IS VERY SMALL RELATIVE TO Q
 POISSON DISTRIBUTION

● Useful for rare events

● Trial size is large

● Occurrence of events random (space or time)

● Probability of occurrence very small

● Pr(E) in a short interval approaches zero

 Poisson Distribution

➢ DISTRIBUTION OF A DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE X WITH PARAMETER

Λ, OF AN EVENT IN A GIVEN SPACE, TIME OR VOLUME.

➢ THIS IS THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES OF A RARE EVENT IN A

GIVEN SPACE, TIME OR VOLUME.
 Poisson Formula

PR (X) = E -Λ (Λ)X
X!

WHERE X = 0,1,2,3,…….
E= 2.7183, A CONSTANT
Λ IS MEAN NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES
 Poisson Distribution:Example
1. The white blood cell count of a healthy individual can
average as low as 6000 per cubic millimeter of blood.
To detect a white cell deficiency, a 0.001 cubic
millimeter drop of blood is taken and the number of
white blood cells X, is found. What is the probability of
finding
(i) no white cell (ii) one white cell
(iii) 2 white blood cell in a healthy individual.

2. The average number of deaths from lung cancer

in a certain population per year has been observed to be
12. If the number of deaths from the disease follows the
Poisson distribution. What is the prob. that during this
year
➢ 10 or fewer people will die from the disease?
➢ There will be exactly 10 deaths from lung cancer?
Solution 1

n = 6000 , P = 0.001 , µ = np = 6000 x 0.001 = 6

(i) P (X = x) = e- µ µ x
x!

P (X = 0) = e- 6 60
0!
= ……………

(ii) P (X = 1) = e- 6 61
1!
=……………

(iii) P (X = 2) = e- 6 62
2!
=……………
Solution 2

µ = 12

(i) P (X = x) = e-µ µx
x!

P (X ≤ 10) = P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2)+…….+ P(X=10)

= e-12120 + ……………+e-121210
1! 10!

= ……………

(ii) P (X = 10) = e-12 1210

10!
=……………
POISSON DISTRIBUTION
FORMULAR
■ Approximation to Binominal distribution
when n is large, and p is small
■ Pr (r) = e-λ λr
▪ r!
▪ Mean = np
▪ Variance= np
 THANK YOU

● LET US LOOK AT CONTINOUS

RANDOM VARIABLES
 Pearson’s Measure of Skewness

● Skewness = (Mean-Median)
Standard Deviation
● Values
(i) Zero, if a perfect Symmetrical distribution
(ii) Negative, when negatively skewed or skewed to
the left
(iii) Positive, when positively skewed or skewed to the
right
 Presentation of Normal Distribution.

● As a mathematical equation
● Graph
● Table
As a Mathematical equation

N (μ,σ2) = 1 e-(X-µ)2
√2πσ2 σ2
Simple Normal Curve
 Continuous Probabilities

.2
total area under
p curve = 1
but
.1
the probability of
any single value = 0
∴ interested in the
0
probability assoc. w/
intervals
 Table of Area
● Areas under a standard normal curve

● Gives probability of falling within an interval.

● Standard normal curve has a mean = 0 and

standard deviation = 1

● Need to transform data to standard normal

curve to use this table.
 1. The mean weight of 500 students are normally distributed
with mean 62kg and standard deviation of 4kg. How
many students have weights

I. More than 70kg

II. Between 60kg and 72kg
III. Less than 65kg.

2. A medical centre employs a large number of clerical staff.

Applicants for employment are timed carrying out a
standard task which involves entering data into computer.
It was observed that the time each applicant takes is
normally distributed with mean 340 seconds and standard
deviation of 80 seconds. Determine
I. The proportion of the applicants who took more than 420
seconds.
II. The proportion of the applicants who took between 240
and 420 seconds.
3. When applied at a given concentration a pesticide is claimed
to kill a fruitfly with probability 0.98. Suppose that, in a field
trial, the pesticide is applied to 10,000 fruitflies. What is the
probability that at least 9850 of the flies are killed.

solution

µ = np = 10,000 x 0.98 =9800 σ = √ npq

= √(10,000 x 0.98 x 0.02)
= 14
P(x > 9850) = P(z>x-µ)
σ
Here x = 9850,
= P(z>9850-9800)
14
= P(z>3.57)
=0.5 – 0.4986
= 0.0014
 4. A proportion of potentially hypertensive
women has a women diastolic pressure of 100
mm high with SD of 14. Assume that the diastolic
blood pressure follows a normal distribution.
What proportion of the women would you expect
to have diastolic.
I. Between 96 and 144
II. Below 80
III. Above 96
IV. Above 125
V. Between 105 and 125.

Solution: μ = 100