Demography is the study of the structure of the human population; patterns of births, deaths,

and migration. Currently, Singapore’s total population stands at 5.64 million and Singapore’s

non-residents population totalled 1.56 million (DOS, 2022). Singapore’s non-residents

population makes up a quarter of our total population, suggesting the big influence foreign

workers have on Singapore’s population. Singapore’s life expectancy has risen from 66 to

83.5 years from 1970 to 2021 (DOS, 2021). Increasing life expectancy indicates an ageing

population. It is expected that from 2020 onwards, the number of citizens leaving the

workforce will be greater than those entering the workforce. Additionally, Singapore's current

old-age support ratio (3.8) is anticipated to continue falling (DOS, 2021). These 2 predictions

lead to a declining workforce for Singapore. Demography has an impact on Singapore's

future, however it is difficult to determine if demography will be destiny for Singapore.

Over the next 50 years, Singapore’s population may be able to reach 10 million.

Highly-skilled workers with P and Q employment passes are permitted to bring their family

members over to Singapore. Furthermore, they do not have to pay levies. P, Q, and S

pass-holders may apply to become PRs or citizens (MPI, 2007). Additionally, there are

programs such as Singapore Citizenship Journey to facilitate the integration of new citizens

(MCCY, 2020). Better immigration benefits and programs to foster relationships with locals,

attract more foreigners to come to Singapore and apply for citizenship. Therefore,

Singapore's population can increase steadily to 10 million.

However, Singapore’s population may not be able to reach 10 million. The digital age has

allowed us to become increasingly connected to the rest of the world. Occupation and

lifestyle ideology from other countries influences our expectations. As a result, Singaporeans

with higher education and aspirations may not be able to find jobs which satisfy them.
Surveys show that Singaporean’s top 2 reasons for seeking new jobs are for higher pay and

career growth (Mah, 2022). According to a UK report, Singapore was ranked as the world’s

most lethargic country (Khoo, 2021). Dissatisfaction with job opportunities and lack of work

life balance, pushes young Singaporeans to leave Singapore’s workforce. Hence, Singapore

has to increase immigration rate to sustain its population. The large influx in foreign talents

will cause us to lose more local talents, making it difficult to reach 10 million in population.

It is more likely that Singapore’s population will not reach 10 million over the next 50 years.

Singapore’s government tightened the immigration policy to attract a qualified pool of

resident candidates and to regulate the job competition in Singapore. Local Qualifying Salary

increased to $1400 per month (MOM, 2022). To employ more foreigners, companies need to

increase the incomes of local employees. This discourages companies from employing

foreign workers, making it harder for foreigners to find jobs in Singapore. Lower skilled

workers are subjected to stricter rules as compared to highly skilled workers. Lower skilled

workers are only allowed to work for the employer and in the occupation as stated in their

work permit. Hence, they cannot enter Singapore’s labour market. (Brenda, 2007). Stricter

rules on lower skilled workers discourages foreigners from coming to Singapore. Hence, it's

harder for Singapore to reach 10 million in population.

Economic development will be negatively affected if Singapore’s population cannot reach 10

million. An ageing population indicated increasing national expenses on the elderly, which

translates to rising taxes. Additionally, a decreasing old-age support ratio creates a heavier

economic burden on working Singaporeans. A higher influx of highly skilled foreigners

stiffens the job competition in Singapore. According to surveys, 50% of survey respondents

feel foreigners are taking their jobs (ET, 2021). Higher job competition and cost of living,
push Singaporeans to move overseas, causing Singapore's workforce to shrink. The declining

and less lively workforce creates a less dynamic economy. Furthermore, companies may be

unable to find sufficient workers, causing business growth to slow down. Singapore's highly

competitive economy and innovativeness was cited as reasons why Singapore is an attractive

investment destination (Crowe, 2020). The younger generation’s fresh and innovative

mindsets increase Singapore’s international competitiveness, driving the economy. The

leaving younger generation and a less vibrant economy will affect Singapore’s attractiveness

as a business hub. If investors' confidence in Singapore falls, investors may exit Singapore,

resulting in a less active economy. Therefore, Singapore's future economic development will

be threatened.

National Security will be negatively affected if Singapore’s population cannot reach 10

million. Due to Japan’s ageing and shrinking population, Japan’s Self-Defense Forces have

not achieved their recruitment quotas since 2014 (Oros, 2020). , This emphasises the need for

Singapore to mitigate population issues as a declining military force is a vulnerability

intruders can leverage on. National security is extremely crucial now more than ever due to

the Ukrainian crisis. Singapore being a small state surrounded by larger states, faces the same

threat of sovereignty as Ukraine. The Ukrainian crisis has shown us that Singapore requires a

strong military as we can only rely on ourselves to protect our sovereignty. Singapore being a

small state indicates it inevitably has a smaller military force as compared to larger states.

Hence, Singapore needs to focus on forming a military which is highly intelligent. Decisive

actions by Internal Security Department, based on good intelligence, prevented Jemaah

Islamiyah terrorist attacks in Singapore (MINDEF, 2022). A shrinking population decreases

Singapore’s pool of talented recruits, weakening military intelligence. Thus, a smaller

population has significant effects on national security.

In conclusion, it is highly likely that Singapore’s population cannot reach 10 million. A

smaller population weakens national security, threatening the sovereignty of Singapore.

Furthermore, Singapore’s tough job competition and declining population hollows out the

workforce, impeding future economic development. To prevent demography from becoming

destiny in Singapore, the government has been investing in education and training (PSD,

2015). This shows that besides demography, there are also other factors which can influence

the future of Singapore. Therefore, it is difficult to determine if demography will be destiny

for Singapore.