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TW Types of Run Tests
TW Types of Run Tests
- Each point except the first one has been labeled with either a u or a d.
- U represents that the line coming from the last point sloped up
- D represents the line coming from the last point sloped down
- The first point does not have a u or a d because there’s no prior point
- Putting those letters together we have U U D U D U D U U D
- We now count the number of line segments
- 1 to 3 is UP; 3 to 4 is DOWN; 4 to 5 is UP; 5 to 6 is DOWN; 6 to 7 is UP; 7 to 8 is DOWN; 8 to10 is
UP; 10 to 11 is DOWN
- So there are 8 up down line segments for 11 samples (8 runs), that will be the basis of our up
down test
Once we know how many up down and above below values we have
We need to test to see if the number we have is something reasonable for random chance or if
it is not something we would expect from random chance
To perform this test: We need to know 3 things
1: the number we would expect from random chance, this is the Expected Value
2: how much variability we would expect in the expected value, this is the standard deviation
3: how to handle this probabilistically
both distributions are normally distributed so we will convert the actual observations to a z
value, if it is between negative and plus 2 we will conclude that there is no pattern
outside this range we will conclude a pattern exists