Lecture 5

ON
MATH-208

(Probability and Statistics)

BY
Kiran Kumar Shrestha

Department of Mathematics

School of Science

Kathmandu University

TO
ME - II Group (Design & Hydro)

Topics Covered

 Mutually exclusive events

 Addition law of probability
 Independent events
 Related problems

Date: Tuesday, Feb. 21, 2023

Mutually Exclusive Events
Defn- Two events are said to be mutually exclusive events if occurrence of one implies the non-
occurrence of another event.

Example-

 'pass' and 'fail' are two mutually exclusive events in result related experiment
 'male' and 'female' genders are mutually exclusive events
 In tossing of a coin 'head' and 'tail' are mutually exclusive events

Notes:

#.1 In Venn diagram mutually exclusive events are represented as ......

#.2 If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, then

( ) ( )

and

( ) ( ) ( )

Proof:

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

#.3 Since events A and ̅ are mutually exclusive and their union is the sample space, i.e.,

So,

( ̅) ( )

Or,

( ) ( ̅)

(due to mutually exclusiveness)

So,

( ̅) ( )
#.4 Since events A-B and are mutually exclusive and their union is event A, i.e.,

( ) ( )

So,

(( ) ( )) ( )

Or,

( ) ( ) ( )

(due to mutually exclusiveness)

So,

( ) ( ) ( )

Similarly,

( ) ( ) ( )

Addition Law of Probability

Statement- Let A and B be any two events defined on the same sample space, then the additional law
probability states that

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

Proof:

It is seen from diagram that events A-B and B are mutually exclusive and their union is event , i.e.,
 ( )

So,

(( ) ) ( )

Or,

( ) ( ) ( )

Or,

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

Hence,

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

Note: For three events A, B and C

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

Independent Events
Defn-

Two events A and B are said to be independent events if the probability of occurrence of one is not
affected by occurrence of non-occurrence of another event.

Note: If A and B are independent events then

( ) ( ) ( )

(Proof - Later)

Solved Problems:

#. (I)

The probability that a boy will get scholarship is 0.75 and that a girl will get independent of boy is
0.72. What is the probability that at least one of them will get scholarship?

Solution-

Let B be event of getting scholarship by a boy and G be event that girl will get scholarship.

Given ( ) ( )
Now,

( ) ( )

( ) ( ) ( )

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

(due to independence)

#.(II)

Solution-

Let A1 be event of getting white ball from Urn1

Let A2 be event of getting white ball from Urn2

Here,

( )
( )
( )

( )
( )
( )

Now,

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

(due to independence)

#. (III)
Solution-

(a) Let A be event of getting all red balls, then

( )
( )
( )

(b) Let B be event of getting 2 red and 2 white balls, then

( )
( )
( )

#. (IV)

A committee is 5 is to selected from a group of 8 boys and 7 girls. Find probability that in the
committee there will (a) 3 boys and 2 girls (b) no girl (c) at least one girl.

Solution-

(a) Let A be event of selecting 3 boys and 2 girls, then

( )
( )
( )

#.(b) Let B be selecting no girl, then

( )
( )
( )

(c) Let C be event of selecting at least one girl, then

Method I

( ) (( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ))

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
Method II-

( ) ( ) ( )
#. (V)

A media salesperson is selected randomly. Find probability that he/she makes annual sales
commission (a) between Rs. 5000 and Rs. 10000 (b) (b) less than Rs. 15,000 (c) more than Rs. 20,000
(d) between Rs. 15,000 and Rs. 25,000

Ans. (

(a)

( )
( )
( )

(b)

( )

(c)

( )

(d)

( )

Note:

For frequency distribution,

( )
Assigned Problems
(to be included in Assignment-I)

Problems on Simple Probability

Q.1 Calculate following probabilities:

a) in tossing of two dice probability of getting (i) sum of 7 (ii) same values on both dice (iii) value in first
die greater than that on second die.
b) In drawing a card from a deck of 52 cards probability of getting (i) a 7 (ii) a black card (iii) a king of ace
(iv) black queen (v) an ace or a king (vi) a red face card (king, queen or jack).
Q.2 In an office it was noticed that last year the photocopy machine in the office functioned for 209 days and was
out of service for 51 days. What is the probability of the copier being out of service on a day? [51/260]
Q.3 The probability that a boy will get scholarship is 0.75 and that girl will get it is 0.72. If the events of getting
scholarship by a boy and a girl are independent then find probability that (i) both will get scholarship (ii) at
least one of them get scholarship. [Hints: (i) 0.54 (ii) 0.93]
Q.4 4 persons are chosen at random from a group of 3 men, 2 women and 4 children. What is the probability that
exactly two of the children will be selected?
[Hints : P(exactly 2 children) = P(2 men 0 woman and 2 children)+P(0 man, 2 women and 2 children) + P(1
man, 1 women and 2 children) Ans. 10/21]
Q.5 An urn contains 75 marbles: 35 are blue and 25 of these blue marbles are swirled. The rest of them are red, and
30 of the red marbles are swirled. The marbles that are not swirled are clear. What is the probability of
drawing: (i) a blue marble from the urn? (ii) a clear marble from the urn (iii) a blue swirled marble (iv) a red
clear marble? [Hints: (i) 7/15 (ii) 4/15 (iii) 5/7 (iv) 3/4]
Q.6 A company producing nuclear fuel rods takes X-ray and inspect each rod before shipping. If an inspector at the
company has noted that for every 1000 fuel rods he inspects, 10 have interior flaws, 8 have casing flaws and 5
have both flaws, what is the probability of finding a flaw in the rod? [Hints: 10/1000 + 8/1000 – 5/1000 =
0.013]
Q.7 An inspector of oil pipeline has task of comparing the reliability of two pumping stations. Each station is
susceptible to two kinds of failure: pump failure and leakage. When either or both failure occurs, then the
stations must be shut down. The data at hand indicate that the following probabilities prevail:
Station Pump Failure Leakage Both
1 0.07 0.10 0
2 0.09 0.12 0.06
Which stations has the highest probability of being shut down?
[Hints: Station 1 with prob. 0.17]

Q.9 What is the probability of obtaining the sum of 15 with 3 dice?

Ans. 10/216 (Hints: ( ) *( )( )( )( )( )( )( )( )
( )( )+

Q.10 In 15 experiments studying electrical behavior of single cells 11 use microelectrodes made of metal and the
other 4 use microelectrodes made from glass tubing. If 2 of the experiments are to be terminated for financial
reasons and they are selected at random. What are the probabilities that
i. Neither uses microelectrodes made from glass tubing?
ii. Only one use microelectrodes made from glass tubing?
[Ans. (a) 0.5238 (b) 0.419]
 (Hints- (i) Neither use microelectrodes of glass = both microelectrodes are of metal
= 11C2 / 15C2. (ii) 11C1 x 4C1/ 15C2

Q.11 Three screws are drawn at random from a lot of 100 screws, 10 of which are defective. Find the probability
of the event that all 3 screws are non-defective, assuming that we draw, (a) with replacement (b) without
replacement.
Ans. (a) 0.729 (b) 0.726531) Hints: #.25 (a) with replacement 90/100 x 90/100 x 90/ 100 (b) without replacement 90/100 x 89/ 99 x 88/98. It is
also equal to 90C3/ 100C3.