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Method of Moments
Method of Moments
Method of Moments
Definition. If {X1 , ... , Xn } is a sample from a population, then the empirical k-th moment
of this sample is defined to be
X1k + · · · + Xnk
n
X12 +X22 +X32
Example. For a sample {X1 , X2 , X3 } the empirical second moment is 3 .
Assume a parametric distribution defined in terms of r parameters (θ1 , ... , θr ); for example
the distribution Exponential(θ) is define in term of only one parameter, while the
Normal(µ , σ 2 ) has two parameters. Suppose that we have observed n data points from the
population under study. We want to use this data set to estimate the parameters of the
model. Based on this sample we can calculate the empirical moments. Then to estimate the
parameters of the model, we match the first r empirical moments with their theoretical
counterparts:
So, here we have r equations in r unknowns (θ1 , ... , θr ). By solving this system of equations
we get the estimates for the parameters.
Note. Some manuscripts use the notation E(M ) , ... , E(M r ) to denote the sample moments.
Example ∗. Four losses are observed from a Gamma distribution. The observed losses are
200 , 300 , 350 , and 450 . Find the method of moments estimate for α.
Solution. First Step: The Gamma distribution has two parameters α and θ. The theoretical
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first moment is E(X) = αθ and the theoretical second moment is E(X 2 ) = α(α + 1)θ2 . Now
we calculate the empirical counterparts:
4 , 5 , 21 , 99 , 421
You fit a Pareto distribution using the method of moments. Determine the 95th percentile of
the fitted distribution.
θ 2θ 2
Solution. For the Pareto distribution we have E(X) = α−1 and E(X 2 ) = (α−1)(α−2) . On the
other hand:
E(M ) = 4+5+21+99+421
= 110
5
E(M 2 ) = 42 +52 +212 +992 +4212
= 37504.8
5
2
Next Step: Form the equations:
θ
E(X) = E(M ) ⇒ = 110
α−1
/ ( )2
2θ2 θ 37504.8 2(α − 1)
⇒ = = 3.0996 ⇒ = 3.0996
(α − 1)(α − 2) α−1 1102 α−2
Example ∗. For a sample of dental claims x1 , x2 , ... , x10 , you are given:
∑ ∑ 2
(i). xi = 3860 and xi = 4, 574, 802.
(ii). Claims are assumed to follow a lognormal distribution with parameters µ and σ.
(iii). µ and σ are estimated using the method of moments.
Calculate E(X ∧ 500) for the fitted distribution.
/( )
1 2 2 457, 480.2
⇒ exp(2µ + 2σ ) 2
exp(µ + σ ) = = 3.07 ⇒ exp(σ 2 ) = 3.07
2 (386)2
3
⇒ σ 2 = ln(3.07) = 1.122 ⇒ exp(2µ + 2(1.122)) = 457, 480.2 ⇒ µ = 5.39
Solution.
But the single observation x1 = 1, so the sample mean is also 1. By equating the theoretical
mean with the sample mean, we get:
4
2−w =1 ⇒ w=1
Solution.
∫ θ ( ∫ θ ∫ θ ) ( )
2 2 2 θ3 θ3 θ
E(X) = x(θ − x)dx = θ x dx − x dx = − =
θ2 0 θ2 0 0 θ2 2 3 3
0.5 + 0.9
= 0.7
2
θ
= 0.7 ⇒ θ = 2.1
3
Example. We want to estimate the parameters β and r in the negative binomial distribution.
The first and second empirical moments are 6 and 60. Find the method of moment estimate
of P (N ≥ 2).
Solution.
5
E(N ) = rβ
E(N 2 ) = Var(N ) + E(N )2 = rβ(1 + β) + (rβ)2
rβ = 6
⇒
rβ(1 + β) + (rβ)2 = 60
1 rβ
P (N ≥ 2) = 1 − P (N = 0) − P (N = 1) = 1 − r
−
(1 + β) (1 + β)r+1
1 6
=1− 2
− 3 = 0.8438
4 4
10 , 13 , 16 , 20 , 23
We want to fit an inverse exponential model to this data. Calculate the method of moments
estimate for the probability of claim being higher than 12.
Solution. For this distribution only the negative moments exist. If θ is the parameter of this
distribution, then we have
E(X −1 ) = θ−1
1 1 1 1 1
10 + 13 + 16 + 20 + 23
= Harmonic average = 0.0666
5
6
E(X −1 ) = E(M −1 ) ⇒ θ−1 = 0.0666 ⇒ θ = 15.0195
15.0195
F (x) = exp(−θx) ⇒ P (X > 12) = 1 − F (12) = 1 − exp(− ) = 0.7140
12
Below is an example dealing with censoring. But before getting to the example, note that in
presence of right censoring the expected value of claim is actually the limited expected value
E(X ∧ u) where u is the policy limit. The moments for this distribution are E[(X ∧ u)k ].
These moments will be used for the purpose of method of moments estimation. So, the model
distribution and the sample distribution are both censored.
100 , 100 , 150 , 170 , 170 , 200 , 220 , 300+ , 300+ , 300+
where the last three are censored observations. We want to fit the distribution
Pareto(α = 2 , θ) to this data. What is the method of moments estimation for θ ?.
Solution.
100 + 100 + 150 + 170 + 170 + 200 + 220 + 300 + 300 + 300
E(M ∧ 300) = = 201
10
300θ
E(X ∧ 300) = E(M ∧ 300) ⇒ = 201 ⇒ 300θ = 201(300 + θ)
300 + θ
(201)(300)
⇒ t= = 609.1
99
7
[ ( )2 ]
Note. If we had α = 3, then we would need to solve the equation θ
2 1− θ
300+θ = 201
which would require a numerical method to solve it.
Below is an example dealing with left truncation. For this type of situations, the model
distribution and the sample distribution must be truncated. Note that in this process, an
estimation for the underlying distribution is found , but not for the truncated one.
Solution.
0.3016 + 3.1349 ∗ c
E(X | X > 0.63) = E(M | M > 0.63) ⇒ = 0.8333 ⇒ c = 0.003
0.37 + 0.9731 ∗ c
Below is an example dealing with (complete) grouped data. So in general assume that we
have k intervals formed by the boundary points:
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and that n is the total number of observations, and that nj is the number of observations
∑
falling in j-th interval (cj−1 , cj ]. So we have n = kj=1 . For a grouped data no adjustment is
needed for the model being fitted, but on the other hand since the exact values of the sample
points are not known , we need to approximate the sample moments. If in each interval
(cj−1 , cj ] no point has an advantage over another point, then we can assume that the the
sample points have uniform distribution over this interval. Then the average value in each
interval is just the midpoint of the interval. Then the weighted average
∑
k
cj−1 + cj nj 1 ∑ cj−1 + cj
k
= nj
2 n n 2
j=1 j=1
Solution.
1 ∑ cj−1 + cj
k
E(M ) = nj
n 2
j=1
[( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ]
1 0+2 2 + 10 10 + 100 100 + 1000
= (25) + (10) + (10) + (5) = 67.7
50 2 2 2 2
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Finally we see here in an example how to calculate the limited expected value E(X ∧ u) for a
grouped data. Suppose you are given the following grouped data:
This data is right-censored at 100. Then the limited expected value E(X ∧ 100) is calculated
through:
[( ) ( ) ( ) ]
1 0+2 2 + 10 10 + 100
E(X ∧ 100) = (25) + (10) + (10) + (100)(45) = 57.06
90 2 2 2
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