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A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T
Keywords: The COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting control measures by the government impacted the travel behavior of
Mode choice behavior Filipinos. With work trips being a major part of trips generated, this study aimed to investigate the effects of the
COVID-19 pandemic pandemic on working Filipinos’ mode choice. Data were collected from employed residents of Metro Manila
Multinomial logistic regression
using an online survey. About 48% of the respondents preferred using public transportation for work pre-
pandemic. This decreased to 22% during the transport lockdown and increased slightly to 25% after the lock
down was lifted. Active transport share increased by 3% during the lockdown but went back down after it was
lifted. Using multinomial logistic regression, the significant factors that influence the pre-pandemic respondents’
mode choice were age, household income, travel cost, and vehicle ownership. During the lockdown, travel
distance, travel time, and sex assigned at birth became significant also. After the lockdown, the significant factors
reverted to that pre-pandemic.
* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: nsco@up.edu.ph (N.J.S. Co), kfdimaculangan@up.edu.ph (K.F. Dimaculangan), mtperalta2@up.edu.ph (M.H.T. Peralta).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eastsj.2023.100101
Received 31 March 2022; Received in revised form 17 December 2022; Accepted 15 February 2023
Available online 20 February 2023
2185-5560/© 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies. This is an open access article under the CC
BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
N.J.S. Co et al. Asian Transport Studies 9 (2023) 100101
researchers and makers in better preparing for future crisis-related especially in major urban areas in the country with historically high
lockdowns and planning labor-related transport policies in the country. public transport mode shares.
The main purpose of the study was to investigate how employed The urban transport system in the Philippines is primarily road-
Filipinos’ mode choice behavior in Metro Manila, Philippines changed in based, composed of public utility jeepneys, buses, taxis, tricycles, and
relation to the COVID-19 pandemic-related lockdowns. Specifically, the pedicabs. In Metro Manila, jeepneys and buses dominate road-based
study sought to public transport wherein buses serve 805 routes, while jeepneys travel
on 785 different routes. Taxis, tricycles, and pedicabs provide express
1. Determine the significant factors that affect the mode choice of services, but the latter two transport modes are limited to serve in local
working Filipinos in Metro Manila; and areas (Asian Development Bank, 2012).
2. Identify the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic-related lockdowns on Fig. 1 presents the 2014 distribution of trips by mode and the
these factors, and on their mode choice distribution. composition of trips made by public transportation in Metro Manila.
Based on Fig. 1, most trips were generated by public transport, using
There was a limited sampling due to the pandemic. Those who do not public utility jeepneys.
have access to the internet were not able to take part in the study since The percentage share of public transportation in Metro Manila is
an online survey was utilized for data gathering. The survey was also greater than the modal share of public transportation in Jakarta, which
conducted during the third period (after transport lockdown) only, thus, is 27% (Prayudyanto and Thohir, 2017), and in Kuala Lumpur, which is
the respondents had to refresh their minds to answer for the first two 20% (NKRA-UPT, as cited in Endut et al., 2015). But its trips generated
periods (before and during transport lockdown). In addition, the number using private vehicles are lower than Jakarta, with 73% of trips made by
of participants who answered the survey was computed using the pre personal vehicles (Prayudyanto and Thohir, 2017).
dicted working population in Metro Manila.
2.3. Factors affecting mode choice
2. Review of related literature
The mode choice behavior of people is affected by several factors.
2.1. Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mode choice One of these factors is sex. Studies in Malaysia (Arasan and Vedagiri,
2009) and India (Nurdden et al., 2007) found that females are less likely
Transport and work-related policies induced by the COVID-19 to drive personal vehicles and prefer public transportation than males.
pandemic, coupled with the perception of people of their safety from This result is comparable with the findings of Chang and Wu (2005) that
the COVID-19 virus, caused a shift in travel behavior (Bhaduri et al., men in Taiwan prefer to drive for themselves and use personal vehicles.
2020; De Vos, 2020). One of the main effects of the pandemic-related Age is another mode choice influencing variable. According to Racca
policies seen throughout different countries is the shift from public and Ratledge (2003), walk trips are more common in the younger gen
transport to private modes due to the desire to reduce transmission. eration, while for ages 65 and above, it is more likely that people take
During the initial month of the COVID-19 pandemic, public transport trips as a passenger than a driver. The study by Mayo and Taboada
comprised 7% of the trips in Australia, down from 15% the months (2020) on the mode choice of commuters in Metro Cebu, Philippines,
before (Beck and Hensher, 2020), while in Budapest, the modal share of revealed that varying factors influence different age groups. People ages
public transportation declined from 43% to 18% and private vehicle use 36 to 44 are more concerned with cost, those ages 45 to 53 are more
rose from 43% to 65% (Bucksy, 2020). There had also been an increase concerned with comfort, while the people ages above 60 are keener on
in the use of active modes such as walking and cycling due to similar their safety. Income is also a significant factor in mode choice as people
reasons for avoiding closed-contact enclosed modes. Abdullah et al. belonging to the lowest income group are more inclined to use public
(2020) showed a shift in the travel mode of 1203 people from different transport (Racca and Ratledge, 2003; Bajracharya and Shrestha, 2017).
countries. From 32% before the pandemic, the modal share of the pri As car ownership increases, the more likely people use a car; car
vate vehicle turned 39%, while active transport comprised 20% from the owners choose private transport more than other travel modes (Abdul
initial 12%. Similarly, in the study by Beck and Hensher (2020), the use lah et al., 2020; Racca and Ratledge, 2003). Vehicle trip travel time
of active transportation rose to 20% from 14% of the trips before the influenced by the travel distance also affects mode choice. In the
pandemic. Philippines, De Guzman and Diaz (2005) suggested that people tend to
At the time of writing, published research on similar effects of the use private vehicles more as the total travel time increases, while Racca
pandemic-related lockdowns in mode choice behavior in the Philippines and Ratledge (2003) mentioned that public transport involves shorter
remained scarce. That said, there was a clearly observable shift, travel distances than those taken by personal vehicles.
Fig. 1. Trip composition by mode (left) and trip composition of public transportation (right) Source: JICA & DOTC, 2015.
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N.J.S. Co et al. Asian Transport Studies 9 (2023) 100101
3. Methodology Since the study included some categorical factors, such as travel
mode, sex assigned at birth, and vehicle ownership, encoding was done
An online revealed-preference survey was used for data collection to convert these categories into numerical codes for the software to
due to the limitations brought by the pandemic. The study focused on analyze (Ray, 2015). Table 1 shows the corresponding numerical codes
investigating two types of factors, namely socio-demographic factors used for the variables.
(age, sex assigned at birth, household income, household size, and The multinomial logistic model should have no multicollinearity,
vehicle ownership) and travel characteristics (travel mode, travel dis which means there should be no highly correlated independent variables
tance, travel time, and travel cost). Respondents were asked to consider (Shrestha, 2020; Bagozzi and Yi, 1988). In line with this, Pearson cor
these factors for the periods before, during, and after the transport relation analyses were performed. Once the condition of no multi
lockdown. collinearity was satisfied, the likelihood ratio test was done to show the
The study area was National Capital Region (NCR), commonly relationship between the dependent variable (mode choice) and the
known as Metro Manila. The respondents are those who resided and independent variables (International Business Machines, 2020). For
worked in this region for all three periods being studied in the study. Due each model, the p-values from the likelihood ratio test were used to
to the ongoing pandemic at the time of the study, the selected sampling determine the independent variables that significantly influence peo
method was snowball sampling. The initial respondents, who were pri ple’s mode choice (e.g., variables with a p-value less than 0.05).
vate companies and barangay officials in Metro Manila, helped the re Meanwhile, Akaike’s Information Criteria (AIC) and Bayesian Informa
searchers identify other potential samples. The survey was disseminated tion Criteria (BIC) values were considered in assessing each multinomial
first to them on different online platforms, and they shared it with their logistic model’s performance. The lower these values are, the better the
co-workers or employees for the next set of respondents to do the same. model fits the data (Bevans, 2020). They can be computed theoretically
Each response from the survey was checked to determine if the criteria as follows:
for the study’s respondents were all met before using it as part of the (
− 2
) (
k
)
data. After obtaining the number of valid responses, the formula pre AIC = ∗ LL + 2 ∗ (4)
N N
sented in equation (1), Slovin’s formula (Ellen, 2020), was used to
compute the sampling margin of error. where,
N N is the number of examples in the training dataset, LL is the log-
n= (1) likelihood of the model on the training dataset, and k is the number of
1 + Ne2
parameters in the model.
where, n is the sample size, N is the population size, and e is the margin
BIC = (− 2 ∗ LL) + [log (N) ∗ k] (5)
of error. The population size considered was the estimated working
population in Metro Manila obtained from the latest Philippine Statistics
where,
Agency data available at the time of study.
log() has the base-e called the natural logarithm, LL is the log-
Five different categories of land transportation systems were studied:
likelihood of the model, N is the number of examples in the training
public transportation (Jeepneys, trains, and buses), private vehicles
(personal cars and motorcycles), private hire (Share-a-ride, Grab, and
Taxis), active transportation (walking and bicycling), and shuttle ser
Table 1
vices (services offered by the government, companies, and other Code for qualitative parameters.
organizations).
Parameter Category Code
For data analysis, multinomial logistic regression was used to
determine the actual effects of each parameter being studied on the Travel Mode Public Transportation 1
Private Vehicle 2
mode choice of respondents. This analysis was performed with the aid of
Private Hire 3
the statistical software SPSS. The utility of a transportation mode was Active Transportation 4
represented as a function of the attributes of the weighted coefficients Shuttle Service 5
that affect choosing that specific mode, represented mathematically by Sex Assigned at Birth Male 1
equation (2) (Khan, 2007). Female 2
Vehicle Ownership Do not own a personal vehicle 0
Umi = θ1 Xmi1 + θ2 Xmi2 + ⋯ + θk Xmik (2) Do own a personal vehicle 1
3
N.J.S. Co et al. Asian Transport Studies 9 (2023) 100101
dataset, and k is the number of parameters in the model. this to the actual age distribution in Metro Manila (PSA, 2015), they are
In addition, models were validated by comparing the predicted with similar with the highest percentage being in the prime working age
actual mode choice decisions per respondent (Ding and Zhang, 2016). group (25–54) and the lowest percentage being in the elderly age group
Lastly, the mode choice distributions in three different periods were also (65 and above). For household income, there are seven classifications
determined and compared to each other to investigate the evident based on PSA, but this study grouped them further into four only: poor to
changes that occurred using Sankey diagrams. These diagrams pre low income (less than ₱23,000), lower-middle to middle-middle income
sented the mode composition per period and mode choice changes be (₱23,000 to ₱81,999), upper-middle to upper income (₱82,000 to
tween time periods. It also represents the percentage shift per mode ₱233,999), and rich (more than ₱233,999). Most respondents belong to
between the time periods considered. the lower middle to middle-middle income households. The difference
between the survey and population percentages were about 7% only.
4. Results and discussion It can be seen in Figs. 2–4 that most of the respondents have a
household size ranging from four to six people. The actual average
4.1. Demographics household size in Metro Manila is 4.2 (PSA, 2016). There was a sizeable
decrease in household size during the COVID-19 related transport
Since the study focused on determining the changes in mode choice lockdown. The reduction in household size may be attributed to the loss
behavior by examining the distribution of mode choices in three of a family member, change of household or residency, and other similar
different periods which are before (before March 2020), during (from reasons. On the other hand, there was not much difference in the
March 2020 to August 2021), and after (after August 2021) transport household size observed between the second and third periods.
lockdown of working Filipinos in Metro Manila, the respondents who Figs. 5–7.
answered the questionnaires were only those who reside and work in As for vehicle ownership, 53.4% of the respondents owned at least
this region before the COVID-19 pandemic and until the time of the one personal vehicle before the transport lockdown. During the trans
study. Based on the 2015 Census, Metro Manila has a population of 22 port lockdown, the percentage increased to 55.4%. People encountered
448 173 and an annual population growth rate of 1.58%. According to difficulty in commuting due to reduced public transportation capacity
PSA (2020), the region has a 60.5% labor force participation rate and/or feared contracting the virus when using other modes. After the
(LFPR). Therefore, assuming that the population growth rate and LFPR transport lockdown, the percentage remained at 55.4%.
in the region remained the same, its 2021 population was approximately As shown in Figs. 8–10, only 12.3% of the respondents worked from
13 615 897, while its 2021 labor force population would be around 8 home (WFH) before the transport lockdown. During the transport
237 618. lockdown, this increased considerably to 47.1%. This is a clear indica
The total number of responses collected in this research was 264. But tion effect of the transport lockdowns, as well as the shift of businesses
the sample size was reduced to 204 respondents using the criteria and schools to remote work. Meanwhile, since the third period was after
mentioned earlier. Using Slovin’s formula mentioned previously, this the latest ECQ, the percentage of respondents who WFH dropped to
sample size corresponded to a 7% margin of error. According to Surresh 36.8%. That said, this percentage is still relatively high. This is the result
and Chandrashekara (2012), the acceptable range for margin of error in of the combination of some businesses allowing for a higher level of on-
survey types of studies is from 5% to 10%. Hence, the computed value site work, while some still allowing (or even requiring) WFH
was deemed acceptable. arrangements.
Table 2 shows the distribution of the respondents in terms of sex
assigned at birth, age, and household income. Majority of respondents 4.2. Trip characteristics
are female, comprising 55.4. This is similar to the population data ob
tained from PSA (2018). In terms of age, most of the respondents come The transportation mode most available (i.e., mode people can use or
are in their 20s. This is mostly due to the data gathering being done have the access to in traveling to their workplace) before the transport
online since younger people are more active on social media. Comparing lockdown was public transportation. This transport mode was available
to 110 respondents. Urban transport in the Philippines is dominated by
Table 2 jeepneys and buses (Asian Development Bank, 2012). However, when
Profile of the survey respondents. the ECQ was imposed, there was a significant drop in public trans
portation availability as seen in the results. The government restricted
Parameter Category Percentage of Percentage of Source for
Respondents Population Population the mobility of people, and transport facilities were not allowed to
Data operate. The availability of both private hire and active transportation
Sex assigned Female 55.4% 50.5% (PSA, 2018)
also went down during this period. Some private hire drivers chose not
at birth Male 44.6% 49.5% to operate anymore due to low profits brought upon by curfews and
Age 15–19 0.5% 17.2% 27.7% PSA (2015) lockdowns during the pandemic (Suntay, as cited in Balinbin, 2021).
20–24 16.7% Meanwhile, one possible reason behind the reduction in active trans
25–29 30.9% 76.1% 58.2%
portation was people’s fear of being exposed to the virus. Moreover,
30–34 14.2%
35–39 10.3% during the transport lockdown, the availability of private vehicles
40–44 6.9% almost doubled. There were also more shuttle services available to the
45–49 7.4% respondents during this period compared to before the transport lock
50–54 6.4% down. The increase in shuttle service availability may be due to the
55–59 3.4% 5.9% 8.7%
60–64 2.5%
DOLE-DTI advisory that required companies to provide shuttle services
65 and 1.0% 5.4% for their workers and the other non-government organizations that
above responded to the lack of transportation. After the transport lockdown,
Household Less than 33.3% 26.6% PSA (2018) when there was no more ECQ, the transportation modes’ availability
Income ₱23 000
slowly went back similar to before the transport lockdown situation.
₱23 000 - 44.6% 66.7% 73.4%
₱81 999 There were more public transportation, private hire, and active trans
₱82 000 - 14.7% portation available during this time and fewer private hire and shuttle
₱233 999 services. Fig. 11.
More than 7.4% In terms of the travel distance, as shown in Figs. 12–14, most re
₱233 999
spondents had workplaces less than 5 km (short) from their homes in all
4
N.J.S. Co et al. Asian Transport Studies 9 (2023) 100101
time, there was an option “work from home” to account for those who
Fig. 4. Household size distribution in three periods. WFH for a certain period and did not travel at all to work. During the
transport lockdown, 10.3% of the respondents did not work on-site at
all. After the transport lockdown, some reverted back to on-site work as
three periods. Meanwhile, the respondents with workplaces that are
suggested by the decreased number of respondents who answered “work
10–14 km (long) and 15 km and above (extra-long) from their residences
from home” during this period. Figs. 18–20.
almost had the same percentages in all three periods. The only reasons
There was not much change in the travel cost in the three periods.
for the shift in travel distance during the pandemic were the changes in
The range with the highest number of respondents in all three periods
the workplace and home addresses. Figs. 15–17.
was ₱200 to ₱799 (USD4-16), while those with the least ranged from ₱0
The distribution of the travel time was almost the same as the travel
to ₱199 (USD0-4).
distance. More than 40% of the respondents spent 30 min or less trav
eling to work in all three periods based on the figures above. For travel
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N.J.S. Co et al. Asian Transport Studies 9 (2023) 100101
6
N.J.S. Co et al. Asian Transport Studies 9 (2023) 100101
Fig. 12. Travel distance distribution in three periods. Fig. 14. Travel distance distribution in three periods.
Fig. 13. Travel distance distribution in three periods. Fig. 15. Travel time distribution in three periods.
During this period, household income (XHI), travel distance (XTD), prefer to use personal vehicles than public transportation (α = 0.995). As
travel time (XTT), travel cost (XTC), sex assigned at birth (XS), and travel distance and travel cost increase, people are more inclined to use
vehicle ownership (XVO) are significant in defining the mode choice of public transportation (β = 0.645 and δ = 0.248). But when travel time
working Filipinos in Metro Manila. increases, people choose private vehicles over public transportation (γ
The utility function of the modes for the period during the transport = − 1.222). Females were found to prefer traveling using private vehi
lockdown has the form shown in equation (7), while the coefficients cles over males (ζ = − 0.325). Still, commuters with no personal vehicles
obtained are shown in the table that follows. Table 10 are more likely to travel via public transportation (ε = − 3.251).
For private hires, the higher the household income, the higher the
U = αXHI + βXTD + γXTT + δXTC + εXVO + ζXS + c (7)
probability that a person uses this mode (α = 1.858). The utility of
The influence of household income in choosing private vehicles is private hire also increases with increasing travel distance (β = 0.457)
unlike the first period. Respondents with higher household incomes and travel costs (δ = 0.161) but decreases with the increase in travel
7
N.J.S. Co et al. Asian Transport Studies 9 (2023) 100101
time (γ = − 0.588). During the first period, this is not the case for travel
distance since people are more inclined to avoid private hires as travel
distance becomes longer. The change may be due to the COVID-19
pandemic. People choose to travel via private hire since they feel like
it is less likely that they will contact the virus while using this trans
portation mode. Males prefer public transportation to females (ζ =
− 1.981), and it is more likely that persons with no personal vehicles
travel via private hire during this period (ε = − 0.320).
For active transportation, those part of higher-income groups prefers
this mode to public transportation (α = 1.166). But as the travel char
acteristics, travel time, distance, and costs rise, people are more inclined
to choose public transportation over active ones. This situation may be
the case since bicycling or walking is tiring at longer times and distances.
Unlike private vehicles and private hire uses, there is a higher proba
Fig. 17. Travel time distribution in three periods.
bility that males travel via active transportation than females (ζ =
0.788). Commuters with personal cars are less probable to resort to
bicycling or walking (ε = 0.158).
An increase in household income and travel distance results in rising
in the utility of shuttle services (α = 0.453 and β = 0.430, respectively).
The predicted influence of household income is different from the first
period. Like active transportation, it is less likely that people travel via
shuttle services as the travel characteristics (travel distance, time, and
cost) rise. Compared to females, males are more inclined to choose
public transportation than shuttle service (ζ = − 0.883). Unlike the first
period, there is a higher probability that people with no available per
sonal vehicles choose public transportation over shuttle services (ε =
− 0.279). Table 11.
The mode choice model during the transport lockdown had an AIC
value of 459.022 and BIC value of 331.497 based on Table 12. These
values were lower compared to the obtained AIC and BIC values of
Fig. 18. Travel cost distribution in three periods. models from other trials, thus having a better fit. The percent correct of
the model during the transport lockdown shows that it is capable to
predict 68.1% of the choices of the trip makers correctlyTable 13.
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N.J.S. Co et al. Asian Transport Studies 9 (2023) 100101
Table 3
Collinearity among independent variables (before transport lockdown).
Sex assigned at birth Age Household size Household income Vehicle ownership Travel distance Travel time Travel cost
The effect of travel cost goes back similar to the first period. With higher
Table 4
travel costs, commuters are more probable to use public transportation
Likelihood ratio tests (before transport lockdown).
than private hire (γ = − 0.116). The influence of vehicle ownership
Likelihood Ratio Tests remained to be like the second period. People with no access to personal
Effect Chi-Square df Sig vehicles choose public transportation over private hire (δ = − 0.403).
Intercept 0.000 0 Table 16.
Age 15.952 4 0.003 The influence of all the variables in the model on the utility of active
Household size 5.726 4 0.221
Household income 15.454 4 0.004
transportation is similar to their effects during the first period. As age
Travel distance 7.399 4 0.116 and household income increase, the utility of active transportation rises
Travel time 8.538 4 0.074 (α = 0.322 and β = 0.878, respectively). With increasing travel costs, it is
Travel cost 48.407 4 0.000 more likely that people will choose public transportation over active
Sex assigned at birth 5.578 4 0.233
modes (γ = − 3.264). Commuters with no personal vehicles choose to
Vehicle ownership 46.759 4 0.000
ride public transportation than resort to active transportation (δ =
− 0.940). Meanwhile, the probability of using shuttle services rise as age
also increases (α = 0.263). This behavior is also observed in the first
Table 5
period. An increase in household income causes a rise in the utility of
Coefficients and constants of the utility functions of the transportation modes
shuttle services (β = 0.444). The rise in travel costs means that people
(before transport lockdown).
are more likely to use public transportation, which is also the case
Transportation Mode α β γ δ c during the transport lockdown (γ = − 0.074). People with no personal
PV 0.256 − 0.279 − 0.007 − 3.598 0.036 vehicles remained to use public transportation over shuttle services, like
PH 0.217 1.388 − 0.160 1.142 − 6.937 in the second period (δ = − 0.063). Table 17.
AT 0.388 0.270 − 3.272 − 0.501 2.364
The mode choice model after the transport lockdown has AIC and
SS 0.536 − 1.994 0.221 0.609 − 3.399
BIC values of 466.150 and 328.624, respectively. These values are lower
when compared to the AIC and BIC value of other attempts in modeling.
that private vehicle is chosen over public transportation (β = 0.838). The model is also seen to be capable to predict 64.3% of the choices of
Travel cost has a different effect during the third period. After the the trip makers correctly.
transport lockdown, an increase in travel costs results in more public
transportation use (γ = − 0.240). Still, people with no personal vehicles
choose to travel via public transportation (δ = − 3.174). Table 7
Regarding the utility of private hire, age now has a different influ Model fitting information (before transport lockdown).
ence. Before the transport lockdown, as the age of people becomes Model Fitting Criteria Likelihood Ratio Tests
higher, it is more likely that they will choose private hire. After the
Model AIC BIC − 2 Log Chi- df Sig
transport lockdown, public transportation is more preferred with Likelihood Square
increasing age (α = − 0.119). Household income has the same influence Intercept 412.770 425.586 404.770
on the utility of private hire for all three periods. People with higher Only
household incomes are more inclined to ride private hire (β = 1.404). Final 266.093 330.174 226.093 178.677 16 0.000
Table 6
Percent correct (before transport lockdown).
Classification
Observed Public transportation (e. Private vehicle (e.g., Private hire (e.g., Active transportation Shuttle service (e.g., shuttle Percent
g., train, jeep, bus, or personal car or share-a-ride, (e.g., walking or services from companies, Correct
van) motorcycle) Grab, or taxi) cycling) LGUs, and other offices)
Public transportation (e.g., 65 14 0 5 2 75.6%
train, jeep, bus, or van)
Private vehicle (e.g., personal 6 42 0 5 0 79.2%
car or motorcycle)
Private hire (e.g., share-a-ride, 4 1 0 1 0 0.0%
Grab, or taxi)
Active transportation (e.g., 1 2 0 25 1 86.2%
walking or cycling
Shuttle service (e.g., shuttle 4 1 0 2 1 12.5%
services from companies,
LGUs, and other offices)
Overall Percentage 44.0% 33.0% 0.0% 20.9% 2.2% 73.1%
9
N.J.S. Co et al. Asian Transport Studies 9 (2023) 100101
Table 8
Collinearity among independent variables (during transport lockdown).
Sex assigned at birth Age Household size Household income Vehicle ownership Travel distance Travel time Travel cost
Table 10
Coefficients and constants of the utility functions of the transportation modes (during transport lockdown).
Transportation Mode α β γ δ ε ζ c
Table 11
Percent correct (during transport lockdown).
Classification
Observed Public transportation (e. Private vehicle (e.g., Private hire (e.g., Active transportation Shuttle service (e.g., shuttle Percent
g., train, jeep, bus, or personal car or share-a-ride, (e.g., walking or services from companies, Correct
van) motorcycle) Grab, or taxi) cycling) LGUs, and other offices)
Public transportation (e.g., 30 7 2 5 0 68.2%
train, jeep, bus, or van)
Private vehicle (e.g., personal 4 56 4 6 0 80.0%
car or motorcycle)
Private hire (e.g., share-a-ride, 3 7 7 1 0 38.9%
Grab, or taxi)
Active transportation (e.g., 1 3 0 30 0 88.2%
walking or cycling
Shuttle service (e.g., shuttle 7 3 2 3 1 6.3%
services from companies,
LGUs, and other offices)
Overall Percentage 24.7% 41.8% 8.2% 24.7% 0.5% 68.1%
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N.J.S. Co et al. Asian Transport Studies 9 (2023) 100101
Table 13
Collinearity among independent variables (after transport lockdown).
Sex assigned at birth Age Household size Household income Vehicle ownership Travel distance Travel time Travel cost
periods being compared. The left side shows the mode share for the
Table 14
previous period, while the values on the right side are for those in the
Likelihood ratio tests (after transport lockdown).
latter period. The thickness of the lines represents the percentage. Each
Likelihood Ratio Tests line connecting the two sides represents those that went from a mode in
Effect Chi-Square df Sig the previous period (left side) to a mode in the latter period (right side).
Intercept 0.000 0 Note that WFH was not prevalent in Metro Manila before the pandemic-
Age 10.555 4 0.032 related lockdown, hence there were no respondents from this category in
Household size 7.862 4 0.097
Household income 15.714 4 0.003
the pre-pandemic period. This was seen to be more significant during
Travel distance 6.718 4 0.152 and after lockdown periods.
Travel time 8.465 4 0.076 Before the transport lockdown, 47.5% of the respondents chose
Travel cost 57.190 4 0.000
Sex assigned at birth 3.873 4 0.423
Vehicle ownership 53.564 4 0.000 Table 17
Model fitting information (after transport lockdown).
Model Fitting Criteria Likelihood Ratio Tests
Table 15
Model AIC BIC − 2 Log Chi- df Sig
Coefficients and constants of the utility functions of the transportation modes
Likelihood Square
(after transport lockdown). Intercept 466.150 478.966 458.150
Transportation Mode α β γ δ c Only
Final 328.624 392.704 288.624 169.526 16 <0.001
PV 0.071 0.838 − 0.240 − 3.174 0.610
PH − 0.119 1.404 − 0.116 − 0.403 − 2.688
AT 0.322 0.878 − 3.264 − 0.940 2.583
SS 0.263 0.444 − 0.074 − 0.063 − 2.872 Table 18
Significant mode choice influencing factors in three periods.
Before the During the After the
1, but changed to negative in periods 2 and 3. This means that pre-
Transport Transport Transport
pandemic, those with private vehicles tend to choose public trans Lockdown Lockdown Lockdown
portation more than these two modes. But during the pandemic, those
Age
with private vehicles prefer public transportation less which may be due
✓ ⨯ ✓
Sex assigned at ⨯ ✓ ⨯
to people’s fear of getting exposed to different people. Moreover, the birth
magnitude was greatest in period 1 for these modes, showing that this Household ✓ ✓ ✓
parameter influenced the utility of these modes the most for this period. income
Household size ⨯ ⨯ ⨯
Vehicle ✓ ✓ ✓
ownership
4.4. Mode choice distribution Travel distance ⨯ ✓ ⨯
Travel time ⨯ ✓ ⨯
Figs. 21–23 present three different diagrams which show the changes Travel cost ✓ ✓ ✓
and shifts in the mode choice distribution of the respondents in the two
Table 16
Percent correct (after transport lockdown).
Classification
Observed Public transportation (e. Private vehicle (e.g., Private hire (e.g., Active transportation Shuttle service (e.g., shuttle Percent
g., train, jeep, bus, or personal car or share-a-ride, (e.g., walking or services from companies, Correct
van) motorcycle) Grab, or taxi) cycling) LGUs, and other offices)
Public transportation (e.g., 32 11 2 4 0 65.3%
train, jeep, bus, or van)
Private vehicle (e.g., personal 6 62 0 5 0 84.9%
car or motorcycle)
Private hire (e.g., share-a-ride, 7 6 2 1 0 12.5%
Grab, or taxi)
Active transportation (e.g., 1 7 0 20 1 69.0%
walking or cycling
Shuttle service (e.g., shuttle 8 4 0 2 1 6.7%
services from companies,
LGUs, and other offices)
Overall Percentage 29.7% 49.5% 2.2% 17.6% 1.1% 64.3%
11
N.J.S. Co et al. Asian Transport Studies 9 (2023) 100101
Table 19
Coefficients of the common significant factors in three periods.
Household Income Travel Cost Vehicle Ownership
Fig. 21. Change of mode choice distribution before and during the trans Fig. 23. Change of mode choice distribution before and after the trans
port lockdown. port lockdown.
12
N.J.S. Co et al. Asian Transport Studies 9 (2023) 100101
which are private vehicle users now. Due to the decrease in public vehicle ownership.
transportation availability during the transport lockdown, people were The main limitation of the study was the limited number of samples
forced to use other available travel modes. From Fig. 23, the percentage because of the difficulty in obtaining responses during the pandemic.
of active transportation users was equal before and after the transport With that, conducting a pen-and-paper survey is recommended to
lockdown. But it is evident that the users were not entirely the same; encourage more participants and allow people with no internet access to
some shifted to active transport, while some shifted from active trans participate in the study. Future researchers may explore other correla
portation to other modes. For shuttle service and vehicle for hire, it can tions using the existing data, such as the effects of the pandemic on
be observed that the percentage of those who use these modes increased different social classes, and determine which parameters have direct
significantly. The modal share almost doubled. Most of the additional causality to the changes in mode choice. They are also encouraged to
users of shuttle service and vehicles for hire were pre-pandemic public investigate when and how the travel behavior of the working population
transportation users. in Metro Manila will go back the same way as before the pandemic.
The main objective of this study was to determine how the COVID-19
The authors declare the following financial interests/personal re
pandemic affect the mode choice behavior of working Filipinos in Metro
lationships which may be considered as potential competing interests:
Manila before (before March 2020), during (from March 2020 to August
Katherine Dimaculangan reports financial support was provided by
2021), and after (after August 2021) the transport lockdown. The results
WebFocus Solutions.
of the study revealed the distribution of the mode choice of working
Filipinos in Metro Manila and the corresponding factors that affect
Acknowledgements
people’s mode choice behaviors.
Different factors significantly affect the mode choice of people in the
The researchers would like to express their sincerest gratitude and
three periods studied. Before the transport lockdown, age, household
warm appreciation to WebFocus Solutions, Inc. for the funding of the
income, travel cost, and vehicle ownership were significant. During the
study and to the UP ICE Transportation Engineering Group for their
transport lockdown, the number of significant factors increased and
guidance and assistance.
turned to household income, travel distance, travel time, travel cost, sex
assigned at birth, and vehicle ownership. After the transport lockdown,
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