Multidimensional Poverty Analysis for an Indian State

by the Lens of Artificial Neural Network

First International Conference on Humanities for Smart Societies 2023
(HMSS 23)

Arup Kumar Sahoo

PhD Scholar
Department of Mathematics
National Institute of Technology Rourkela

May 27, 2023

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Contents

1 Introduction

2 Preliminaries of ANN

3 Challenges in Applying the Model

4 Case study

5 Concluding Remarks

6 References

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Poverty is the worst form of
violence.
Mahatma Gandhi

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Introduction

There is one in every ten persons in this world lives below the international
poverty line. That would be around 689 million individuals who are surviving
on less than $1.90 per day, and about 2 billion (26.2 per cent of total popu-
lation) are living on less than $3.20 per day.
From 2015 to 2018, global poverty maintained its historic drop, with the global
poverty rate declining from 10.1 percent in 2015 to 8.6 percent in 2018.
But, due to COVID-19, the global poverty rate increased abruptly from 8.3
percent in 2019 to 9.2 percent in 2020, marking the first increase in extreme
poverty since 1998 and the highest increase since 1990, and forcing down
poverty reduction plans by approximately three years.
It is also worth mentioning that there exist various machine learning methods
to handle the multidimensional data in which Artificial Neural Network (ANN)
is a versatile method for developing models that can predict complex poverty
patterns from given data.
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Introduction (cont…)

[Erenstein et al., 2010] used natural, physical, human, social, and financial
livelihood assets as poverty indicators in Indo-Gangetic Plains of India, in
which, they have applied PCA and linear regression to predict poverty at the
district level.
[Pareek and Prema, 2012] proposed a methodology using MLNN to classify
poverty into BPL and non-BPL categories.
[Azcarraga and Setiono, 2018] used MLNN to classify between poor and non-
poor and identified characteristics that cause poverty.
[Alsharkawi et al., 2021] did a case study in Jordan to classify poor households
using sixteen different machine learning techniques.
[Liu et al., 2021] introduced the novel DBSCAN clustering algorithm via the
edge computing-based deep neural network model for targeted poverty allevi-
ation.

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Artificial Neural Network (ANN)

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Multi-layer Neural Network (MLNN)

Figure 1: ANN with Backpropagation algorithm

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Multi-layer Neural Network (MLNN) (cont…)

A MLNN is a type of ANN that consists of multiple layers of interconnected

neurons.
Forward propagation: [Zurada, 1992]

z(1) = W(1) x + b(1)

a(1) = g(z(1) )
z(2) = W(2) a(1) + b(2)
a(2) = g(z(2) ) (1)
..
.
z(L) = W(L) a(L−1) + b(L)
a(L) = g(z(L) )

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Multi-layer Neural Network (MLNN) (cont…)

where x is input data say n features and m entries, i.e. n × m matrix. W(l)
is weight matrix of the l-th layer, b(l) is bias vector of the l-th layer, z(l) is
weighted sum of l-th layer, a(l) is activation of l-th layer, and g is activation
function.
Backward propagation: [Rumelhart et al., 1986]

δ (L) = ∇a(L) J(θ) ⊙ g′ (z(L) ) (2)

δ (l) = (W(l+1) )T δ (l+1) ⊙ g′ (z(l) ) (3)

∇W(l) J(θ) = δ (l+1) (a(l) )T
(4)
∇b(l) J(θ) = δ (l+1)

W(l) = W(l) − α∇W(l) J(θ)

(5)
b(l) = b(l) − α∇b(l) J(θ)

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Multi-layer Neural Network (MLNN) (cont…)

where J(θ) is loss function to measure the error between predicted and actual
output, θ represents parameters of neural network (i.e., the weight matrices
and bias vectors), ⊙ is element-wise multiplication, and α is the learning rate.

Repeat the process until parameters converge to a minimum of loss function.

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Functional Link Neural Network (FLNN)

A FLNN is a type of neural network that has an input layer, a non-linear

functional hidden layer, and an output layer [Pao and Takefuji, 1992].
Forward propagation:
∑
n
zj = bj + wj,i f(i) (6)
i=1
 
∑m
y = g w1,j zj  (7)
j=1

Input layer has n nodes, as input variable x1 , x2 , ..., xn , hidden layer has m
nodes, zj , j = 1, 2, ..., m, and y is output of FLNN.
wj,i is the weight connecting the i-th input node to the j-th hidden layer node,
bj is bias term of j-th node, f(i) is non-linear function applied to i-th input,
and g is activation function.
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Functional Link Neural Network (FLNN) (cont…)
Backward propagation:
E = 0.5 × (d − y)2 (8)
Here, d is desired output, E is MSE loss function between predicted output y
and desired output d.

∂E ∂E ∂y ∑ m
= = (y − d)g′ ( w1,j zj )zj
∂w1,j ∂y ∂w1,j
j=1

∂E ∂E ∂y ∂zj ∑ m
= = (y − d)g′ ( w1,j zj ) (9)
∂bj ∂y ∂zj ∂bj
j=1

∂E ∂E ∂y ∂zj ∑ m
= = (y − d)g′ ( w1,j zj )w1,j f′ (i)xi
∂wj,i ∂y ∂zj ∂wj,i
j=1

∂E
w(t + 1) = w(t) − η
∂w(t)
(10)
∂E
b(t + 1) = b(t) − η
∂b(t). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Functional Link Neural Network (FLNN) (cont…)

where η is learning rate.

Figure 2: FLNN with Backpropagation algorithm

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Challenges in Applying the Model

Data quality: One challenge in using ML for poverty analysis is ensuring that the data used
to train and evaluate the models is of high quality.

Interpretability: Another challenge in use of ML for poverty analysis is that some machine
learning algorithms are difficult to interpret.

Privacy and ethics: ML models for poverty analysis may also raise ethical and privacy
concerns.

Contextual factors: Poverty is a complex issue that is influenced by a range of social,

economic, and cultural factors.

Uncertainty: There may be uncertainty in the data due to which the values or measurements
in a dataset may deviate from their true or accurate values.

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Case study
Comparative study of Chebyshev and Legendre Polynomial-based NN Models for
Approximating Multidimensional Poverty for Odisha

Method
We have taken FLNN model with 12 input nodes, one functional expansion hidden layer
having 24 neurons in it, and for function expansion of FLNNs, second-order Chebyshev
polynomial (Eq. 11) for ChNN and second-order Legendre polynomial (Eq. 12) for LeNN
are taken so that it expands twelve input parameters to twenty-four parameters.

C0 (x) = 1
C1 (x) = x (11)
C2 (x) = 2x2 − 1

L0 (x) = 1
L1 (x) = x
(12)
1
L2 (x) = (3x2 − 1)
2
The activation function used in nodes between layers is SeLu.
The MSE with L2 regularizer as penalty to avoid over-fitting is utilised for error computation
in MLNN and no regularizer used for FLNNs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Case study (cont…)
Comparative study of Chebyshev and Legendre Polynomial-based NN Models for
Approximating Multidimensional Poverty for Odisha

The Adam optimizer is used to update weights in error backpropagation.

All models trained on two-thousand iterations and studied the obtained results.

Table 1: Factor loadings as input variables.

Indicators
Nutrition
Child-Adolescent Mortality
Maternal Health
Years of Schooling
School Attendance
Cooking Fuel
Sanitation
Drinking Water
Electricity
Housing
Assets
Bank Account
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Case study (cont…)
Comparative study of Chebyshev and Legendre Polynomial-based NN Models for
Approximating Multidimensional Poverty for Odisha

Figure 3: Prediction results of ANN model on testing data

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Case study (cont…)
Comparative study of Chebyshev and Legendre Polynomial-based NN Models for
Approximating Multidimensional Poverty for Odisha

Table 2: Comparison of outputs from different neural network models

District Actual Output ChNN Output LeNN Output MLNN Output
Anugul 24.57 24.55 24.35 24.58
Balangir 27.49 27.42 27.28 27.63
Baleshwar 24.42 24.44 24.31 24.12
Bargarh 24.9 24.79 24.90 24.84
Bauda 33.03 33.11 33.35 33.20
Bhadrak 28.43 28.44 28.55 27.98
Cuttack 14.97 14.20 14.61 14.72
Debagarh 37.1 37.20 37.01 37.11
Dhenkanal 30.08 30.19 30.13 30.39
Gajapati 38.76 38.55 39.01 39.09
Ganjam 21.88 21.93 21.76 21.81
Jagatsinghapur 11.83 12.62 13.03 12.57
Jajapur 20.75 20.85 20.84 20.67
Jharsuguda 18.62 18.81 18.71 18.74
Kalahandi 47.28 47.24 47.31 47.33
Kandhamal 44.75 44.80 44.55 45.16
Kendrapara 21.67 21.44 21.27 21.18
Kendujhar 41.78 41.94 42.09 42.03
Khordha 15.49 15.46 15.82 15.68
Koraput 51.14 51.19 51.12 51.25
Malkangiri 58.71 58.69 58.68 58.81
Mayurbhanj 44.9 44.88 44.98 44.93
Nabarangapur 59.32 59.24 59.24 59.31
Nayagarh 20.49 20.50 20.04 20.51
Nuapada 37.98 37.96 38.06 37.91
Puri 11.64 11.26 11.72 12.30
Rayagada 48.14 49.65 49.61 48.33
Sambalpur 24.53 27.99 27.16 26.59
Subarnapur 28.05 27.45 26.78 26.70
Sundargarh 24.75 24.91 25.27 26.72
Accuracy 98.62% 98.41% 98.39%
MSE 0.314518139 0.374275597 . . . . . . .
0.366725575 . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Case study (cont…)
Comparative study of Chebyshev and Legendre Polynomial-based NN Models for
Approximating Multidimensional Poverty for Odisha

Results
It is found that ChNN and LeNN are computationally faster and better approximators than
MLNN.
ChNN took 47.49 seconds, followed by LeNN with 48.13 seconds and ANN with 48.41
seconds using CPU (Intel(R) Core(TM) i5-10505 CPU @ 3.20GHz, 8.00 GB).
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Case study (cont…)
Comparative study of Chebyshev and Legendre Polynomial-based NN Models for
Approximating Multidimensional Poverty for Odisha

ChNN obtained training accuracy of 98.29% and validation accuracy of 83.25%, followed
by LeNN with a training accuracy of 97.01% and validation accuracy of 80.79% and MLNN
with a training accuracy of 96.75% and validation accuracy of 78.47%.

The MSE of ChNN is found 0.3145, followed by 0.3667 of ANN and 0.3743 of LeNN. The
outputs of all three models with the original output is given in Table 2.

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Concluding Remarks

The development of CMPI is free from any given weights as it was the case
with MPI [Aayog, 2021], it is purely based on the data given and is unsu-
pervised technique to determine the multidimensional poverty status of the
districts of the state.
This work can be further extended to India level and can be adopted by any
region in world as DHS survey data is available for almost all developing
countries.
The above methodology can also be applied to various other types of multi-
dimensional data, for example, rain data, farming data, etc..

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References

[1] [[Aayog, 2021] ]Aayog, N. (2021).

National multidimensional poverty index: Baseline report.
NITI Aayog.

[2] [[Alsharkawi et al., 2021] ]Alsharkawi, A., Al-Fetyani, M., Dawas, M., Saadeh,
H., and Alyaman, M. (2021).
Poverty classification using machine learning: The case of jordan.
Sustainability, 13(3):1412.

[3] [[Azcarraga and Setiono, 2018] ]Azcarraga, A. and Setiono, R. (2018).

Neural network rule extraction for gaining insight into the characteristics of
poverty.
Neural Computing and Applications, 30:2795–2806.

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References (cont…)

[4] [[Erenstein et al., 2010] ]Erenstein, O., Hellin, J., and Chandna, P. (2010).
Poverty mapping based on livelihood assets: A meso-level application in the
indo-gangetic plains, india.
Applied Geography, 30(1):112–125.

[5] [[Glorot et al., 2011] ]Glorot, X., Bordes, A., and Bengio, Y. (2011).
Deep sparse rectifier neural networks.
In Gordon, G., Dunson, D., and Dudík, M., editors, Proceedings of the Four-
teenth International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, vol-
ume 15 of Proceedings of Machine Learning Research, pages 315–323, Fort
Lauderdale, FL, USA. PMLR.

[6] [[Jolliffe and Cadima, 2016] ]Jolliffe, I. T. and Cadima, J. (2016).

Principal component analysis: a review and recent developments.
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and
Engineering Sciences, 374(2065):20150202.
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Arup May 27, 2023 23 / 29
References (cont…)

[7] [[Kingma and Ba, 2014] ]Kingma, D. P. and Ba, J. (2014).

Adam: A method for stochastic optimization.
arXiv preprint arXiv:1412.6980.

[8] [[Liu et al., 2021] ]Liu, H., Liu, Y., Qin, Z., Zhang, R., Zhang, Z., and Mu, L.
(2021).
A novel dbscan clustering algorithm via edge computing-based deep neural net-
work model for targeted poverty alleviation big data.
Wireless Communications and Mobile Computing, 2021:1–10.

[9] [[Pao and Takefuji, 1992] ]Pao, Y.-H. and Takefuji, Y. (1992).
Functional-link net computing: theory, system architecture, and functionalities.
Computer, 25(5):76–79.

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References (cont…)

[10] [[Pareek and Prema, 2012] ]Pareek, P. and Prema, K. (2012).

Classifying the population as bpl or non-bpl using multilayer neural network.
International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, 2(1):2250–3153.

[11] [[Rumelhart et al., 1986] ]Rumelhart, D. E., Hinton, G. E., and Williams,
R. J. (1986).
Learning representations by back-propagating errors.
nature, 323(6088):533–536.

[12] [[Zurada, 1992] ]Zurada, J. (1992).

Introduction to artificial neural systems.
West Publishing Co.

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Publication from this study

[1] Kumar, S., & Sahoo, Arup Kumar, & Chakraverty, S. (2022). Comparative
study of Chebyshev and Legendre polynomial-based neural models for
approximating multidimensional poverty for an Indian State.

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Acknowledgement

Prof. Snehashish Chakraverty (NIT Rourkela)

CSIR, India
NIT Rourkela
Poverty Alleviation Research Centre (PARC), NIT Rourkela, Rourkela

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Books Related to ANN

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 Thank You

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