STAT PROB Q4 Module 4 6

STATISTICS and
PROBABILITY
Quarter 4
*Learning Activity Sheets (LAS) for

Senior High School Learners*
1
STATISTICS and
PROBABILITY
Learning Activity Sheets (LAS) #4:

ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS
Lesson 13: The Point Estimate of a Population Mean
Lesson 14: Large Sample Confidence Interval For A
Population Mean
Lesson 15: t-Distribution
Lesson 16: Small Sample Confidence Interval For A
Population Mean
2
Lesson The Point Estimate of a
13 Population Mean
I. MOST ESSENTIAL LEARNING COMPETENCY:

✓ illustrates and distinguishes between point and interval estimates
(M11/SP12-IIIf-2-3)
✓ identifies point estimator for the population mean. (M11/SP12-IIIf-4)
✓ computes for the point estimates of the population mean.
(M11/SP12-IIIf-5)
Learning Objective: At the end of the lesson, you should be able to:
1. Illustrate and Identifies point and interval estimate.
2. Determine the point estimator for the population mean.
3. Draw/create samples from the given population.
4. Compute the point estimate of the population mean.
II. CONTENT
➢ In Statistics, sample information is the basis for estimating the parameter
value. To enhance the reliability of an estimate, we take as many random
samples as possible from a population, compute the mean of each sample,
and then compute the means of the means for all samples. The process of
making conclusions about parameter values based on sample information
is called Inferential Statistics, which has two areas: estimation and
hypothesis testing.
➢ An estimate is a value or a range of values that approximate a parameter

(population values). It is based on sample statistics computed from the
sample data
➢ Estimation is the process of determining parameter values

❖ A point estimate is a specific numerical value of a population
parameter. The sample mean 𝑿 ̅ is the best point estimate of the
population mean μ.
NOTE: The mean of means is equal to the population mean, 𝑿 ̅ 𝑿̅ = 𝝁
❖ An interval estimate is a range of values that may contain the
parameter of a population
3
Illustration: The father and his son are talking about the possible height of
the building opposite them.
Father, do you agree with me No Son.

that the building is about The building is about
15 meters high? 14 meters to
16 meters high.
SON
FATHER
Analysis
1. What can you say about the estimated height given by the son?
(Answer: A specific numerical value which is 15meters)
2. How many possible values are within the estimates of the father?
(Answer: 3 possible values. A range between 14 to 16)
3. Which do you think is the point estimate? the interval estimate?
Properties of A Good Estimator:

1. When the mean of a sample statistic from a large number of different
random samples equals the true population parameter, then the
sample statistic is an unbiased estimate of the population parameter
2. Across the many repeated samples, the estimates are not very far
from the true parameter value
➢ Estimates can be problematic for they provide limited information. But this
can be addressed by randomization which ensures that they are unbiased
and less variable, that is, the sample that yields the estimate came from a
random sample from a target population.
➢ The following figures illustrate bias where the vertical line represents the population mean and the
dot represents the sample mean from 𝑋̅ sampling distribution
.. …. ..
…. …… ….
. .. .. . ... ...
……….. ……….. ………..

.... .. .. .. . ... .. .......
. . .. .. . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . ............... . .. .... .. . ....... .....
μ μ μ
Negative Bias Unbiased Positive Bias
(Under Estimate) (On Target Estimate) (Over Estimate)
For an estimate to be unbiased, it must come from many samples that equal
the population parameter. If across many samples, a sample statistic departs
from the true population value, then the estimate is said to be biased.
Formulas to be used for estimation:
∑𝑋 ∑(𝑋− 𝑋̅)2 ∑(𝑋− 𝑋) ̅ 2

𝑀𝐸𝐴𝑁 𝑋̅ = , 𝑉𝐴𝑅𝐼𝐴𝑁𝐶𝐸 𝑠 = 2
𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑆𝑇𝐷 𝐷𝐸𝑉 𝑠 = √
𝑛 𝑛−1 𝑛−1
NOTE: The sample standard deviation is a biased estimate of the

parameter standard deviation such that the sample tends to be an
underestimation. The use of n-1 instead of n in the formula of the variance
4
and standard deviation tends to eliminate this bias and produces an unbiased
estimate of the parameter.
POINT ESTIMATION
- is the process of finding a single value, called point estimate, from a
random sample of the population to approximate a population parameter.
Example 1:
Mr. Park’s company sells bottled calamansi juice. He claims that a
bottle contains 500mL of such juice. A consumer group wanted to know if his
claim is true. They took six random samples of 10 bottles and obtained the
capacity, in mL, of each bottle. The result is shown as follows:
Sample 1 500 498 497 503 499 Sample 4 501 495 500 497 497
Sample 2 500 500 495 494 498 Sample 5 502 497 497 499 496
Sample 3 497 497 502 496 497 Sample 6 496 497 496 495 497
Assuming that the measurement was carefully obtained and that the only
kind of error present is the sampling error, a)Find the mean of each sample
b)Find the mean of means or overall mean (𝑋̅𝑋̅ ) c)What is the point estimate
of the population mean? d)Find the variance and standard deviation of the
sample means ( 𝑠 2𝑋̅ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑋̅ ).
Solution:
a. Find the mean of each sample
Mean
Sample 1 500 498 497 503 499 (500+498+497+503+499)/ 5 = 499 499
Sample 2 500 500 495 494 498 (500+500+495+494+498)/ 5 = 497 497
Sample 3 497 497 502 496 497 (500+498+497+503+499)/ 5 = 498 498
Sample 4 501 495 500 497 497 (501+495+500+497+497)/ 5 = 498 498
Sample 5 502 497 497 499 496 (502+497+497+499+496)/ 5 = 498 498
Sample 6 496 497 496 495 497 (496+497+496+495+497)/ 5 = 496 496
b. Find the mean of means or overall mean

∑ 𝑋̅ 499 + 497 + 498 + 498 + 498 + 496 2987
𝑋̅𝑋̅ = = = = 498
𝑛 6 6
c. What is the point estimate of the population mean?
The sample mean is the point estimate of the population mean which is 498
d. Find the variance and standard deviation of the sample means ( 𝑠 2𝑋̅ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑋̅ )
∑(𝑋− 𝑋̅)2
Variance: 𝑠 2𝑋̅ = =
𝑛−1
(499−498)2+(497−498)2 +(498−498)2 +(498−498)2+(498−498)2 +(496−498)2 8
= = 1.60
6−1 5
∑(𝑋− 𝑋̅)2 8
Standard Deviation: 𝑠𝑋̅ = √ = √ = 1.26
𝑛−1 5
5
Example 2:
Mr. Domingo conducted a survey among ten random samples of people
who are in favor of truck ban in a section of a metropolitan area. He
determined the percentages of those who are in favor of the ban. Assuming
that the only error present is the sampling error, he wanted to determine the
point estimate of the population mean percentage and the standard deviation
based on 500 observations. The following numbers represent the percentage
of the ten surveys. What is his estimate of 𝜇?
47.0 56.4 50.1 60.2 48.0 55.3 60.0 59.5 63.0 57.5
a) Find the mean of means or overall mean
b) What is the point estimate of the population mean?
c) Find the variance and standard deviation
Solution:
a. Find the mean of means or overall mean
∑ 𝑋̅ 47.0 + 56.4 + 50.1 + 60.2 + 48.0 + 55.3 + 60.0 + 59.5 + 63.0 + 57.5 557
𝑋̅𝑋̅ = = = = 55.7
𝑛 10 10
b. What is the point estimate of the population mean?
The sample mean is the point estimate of the population mean which is 55.7
c. Find the variance and standard deviation ( 𝑠 2𝑋̅ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠𝑋̅ )
∑(𝑋− 𝑋̅)2 276.7
Variance: 𝑠 2 𝑋̅ = = = 30.74
𝑛−1 9
∑(𝑋− 𝑋̅ )2 276.7
Standard Deviation: 𝑠𝑋̅ = √ = √ = 5.54
𝑛−1 9
III. ACTIVITY
Direction: Check what you know. In a yellow pad paper, answer and do
what is asked:
Activity 1: Fill in the blanks

1. ____________ is a single value used to estimate a population parameter.
2. ____________ is a range of values that is used to estimate the population
parameter
3. ____________ is a measure of central tendency that is considered as the
best estimator of the population parameter μ
4. A good estimate has no ____________
5. The advantage of an interval estimate over a point estimate is ____________
6
Activity 2:
a) Find the point estimate of the population parameter μ and
b) Find the variance and standard deviation for each of the following sets
of data.
1)Percentage Of Parents In Favor Of Including Values In The Mathematics
Curriculum
Sample 1 90 70 80 76 81 82 76 84
Sample 2 89 59 76 78 75 89 79 89
Sample 3 92 42 58 84 75 90 80 78
Sample 4 82 68 82 82 68 78 79 80
Sample 5 72 54 83 80 78 79 80 84
Sample 6 81 69 78 78 80 82 81 90
2) Percentage Of Children Who Watch TV Before Bedtime

Sample 1 70 67 58 60 69 62 70 62
Sample 2 69 59 77 59 52 79 59 59
Sample 3 80 42 60 59 68 40 68 68
Sample 4 56 66 60 40 57 57 70 71
Sample 5 72 54 52 67 62 59 71 72
Sample 6 81 49 45 78 78 69 68 69
IV. REFERENCES:
Belecina, R. R., Baccay, E. S., & Mateo, E. B. (2016). Statistics and Probability. Rex Book Store.
Ocampo, J. J., & Marquez, W. G. (2016). Senior High Conceptual Math & Beyond Statistics and Probability. Brilliant Creations Publishing, Inc.
Self-Learning Module for Grade 11 Mathematics
Prepared by: Checked by: Approved By:

RONNAH MARIE L. MAGDAUG JULIE H. DELGADO SALVADOR J. SEMBRAN, PhD
Mathematics Teacher, ANS SHS Mathematics Group Head Asst. Principal II, SHS
7
Lesson Large Sample Confidence
14 Interval For A Population Mean
✓ identifies the appropriate form of confidence interval estimator for the
population mean when; a) the population variance is known; b) the
population variance is unknown; and the Central Limit Theorem is to be
used. (M11/SP12-IIIg-1)
1. Identify the appropriate form of the confidence interval estimator for the
population mean when the population variance is known.
2. Find the confidence interval estimate for the population mean.
II. CONTENT
Illustration:
Six (6) fishermen went fishing using their nets. Group A uses a 95 meters net.
Group B uses a 90 meters net, and Group C uses a 99 meters net. They drop
their nets in an ocean place where equal volume of fishes are found. Which
net can catch more fish? Why?
INTERVAL ESTIMATION
Interval estimation is like catching fishes with a net whose lengths
represent the confidence level, or the probabilities of the mean of the
population.
➢ Confidence about the estimate is enhanced when the given estimate is a
range of values.
➢ An interval estimate of the population parameter, also called a confidence
interval, is a range of values that is used to estimate a parameter. This
estimate may or may not contain the true parameter value. Necessarily,
there are boundaries: the lower boundary and the upper boundary.
In finding the interval estimate, a degree of confidence is made that the
interval contains the true and fixed parameter. (How confident are you
with your estimate? There are 3 commonly used confidence level: 90%,
95%,99%)
➢ The confidence coefficient (z-values or critical values) is the probability
that an interval estimator encloses the population parameter – that is, the
relative frequency with which the interval estimator encloses the population
parameter when the estimator is used repeatedly a very large number of
times.
➢ The confidence level is the confidence coefficient expressed as a
percentage
8
➢ To illustrate, suppose we state a confidence of 95%. Confidence intervals
are constructed wide enough so that 95% of them contain the true
population parameter and 5% do not. We also refer to 95% as confidence
level. We use the symbol 𝜶 (𝒂𝒍𝒑𝒉𝒂) to refer to the area outside the confidence
level. So when the confidence level is 95%, alpha 𝛼 = 1 − 0.95 = 0.05
(Note: Other levels of confidence interval can be determined using the z-table.)
Commonly Used Values of 𝒁𝜶⁄𝟐
Confidence Level 𝛼 𝛼 ⁄2 𝑍𝛼⁄2 Confidence
100 ( 1 - 𝛼 ) % Boundary
90% 0.10 0.05 1.65 𝑍𝛼⁄2 ± 1.65
95% 0. 05 0.025 1.96 𝑍𝛼⁄2 ± 1.96
99% 0. 01 0.005 2.58 𝑍𝛼⁄2 ± 2.58
➢ To get the value of z: Change to decimal, divide by 2 and locate in the z-

table. Get the value of z. If there is no exact value, locate the nearest
value
Example:
95% =0.95 -> Divide 0.95/2=0.475
Locate in the z-table 0.475. The z-value is 1.96
90%=0.90 -> Divide 0.90/2 = 0.450

Locate in the z-table 0.450. There are 2 nearest values 0.4495 and 0.4505
The z-values are 1.64 and 1.65. Get the average (1.64 + 1.65)/2 = 1.645 ≈ 1.65
90% 95% 99%
𝝈 𝝈 𝝈 𝝈 𝝈
= 𝟎. 𝟎𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐𝟓 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐𝟓 𝝈 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟓
𝟐 𝟐 𝟐 𝟐 𝟐
= 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟓
𝟐
-1.65 1.65 -1.96 1.96 -2.58 2.58
Large Sample 100 ( 1 – 𝜶 ) % Confidence Interval for 𝝁
General Computing Formula 𝝈 𝝈

for Confidence Interval for ̅ − 𝒁𝜶⁄𝟐
𝑿 ̅ + 𝒁𝜶⁄𝟐
< 𝝁 < 𝑿 𝒐𝒓
√𝒏 √𝒏
Large Samples
̅ − 𝑬 < 𝝁 < 𝑿
𝑿 ̅+ 𝑬
where 𝑍𝛼⁄2 and 𝑍 value with an area of 𝛼 ⁄2 to its right and 𝜎𝑋̅ = 𝜎 ⁄√𝑛
The parameter 𝜎 is the standard deviation of the sample population and
𝑛 is the sample size.
9
𝝈
̅ − 𝒁𝜶⁄𝟐
𝑿 is called the lower confidence boundary or limit
√𝒏
𝝈
̅ + 𝒁𝜶⁄𝟐
𝑿 is called the upper confidence boundary or limit
√𝒏
𝝈 𝒔
𝑬 = 𝒁𝜶⁄𝟐 ( ) ≈ 𝒁𝜶⁄𝟐 ( ) is called the margin of error, which is
√𝒏 √𝒏
defined as the maximum likely difference between the observed sample
mean and the true value of the population μ.
➢ When 𝑛 is equal to 30 or more, the confidence interval is approximately
𝑠
equal to 𝑋̅ ± 𝑍𝛼⁄2 ( ) where s is the sample standard deviation.
√𝑛
➢ When 𝑛 is large, the Central Limit Theorem and the z-test is applicable.
Example 1:
Unoccupied seats on flight cause airlines to lose revenue. Suppose a large
airline wants to estimate its average numbers of unoccupied seats per flight
over the past year. To accomplish this, the records of 225 flights are randomly
selected, and the number of unoccupied seats is noted for each of the
sampled flights. The sample mean and standard deviation are 𝑥̅ = 11.6 𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑠
𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠 = 4.1 𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑠. Estimate μ, the mean number of unoccupied seats per flight
during the past year, using 90% confidence interval.
Solution:
STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3 STEP 4
Describe the Specify the Collect and present Compute the interval estimate
population confidence criteria. sample evidence
parameter of Select the level of Find the point
interest (e.g. confidence and the estimate and Find E
mean μ, corresponding (margin of error)
proportion P) coefficients (or
critical z- value)
The 𝑛 = 225 The point Interval estimate:
parameter 𝑥̅ = 11.6 𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑠 estimate of the 𝜎 𝜎
𝑋̅ − 𝑍𝛼⁄2 < 𝜇 < 𝑋̅ + 𝑍𝛼⁄2
of interest 𝑠 = 4.1 𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑠 population mean √𝑛 √𝑛
is the mean 90% confidence 𝜇 𝑖𝑠 11.6 4.1
11.6 − 1.65 < 𝜇
µ of the interval Margin of error: √225
population Note: 𝜎 4.1
𝐸 = 𝑍𝛼⁄2 ( ) < 11.6 + 1.65
At 90% √𝑛 √225
confidence, 4.1
𝛼 = 0.10 => = ±1.65 11.6 − 0.45 < 𝜇 < 11.6 + 0.45
√225
critical z values 11.15 < 𝜇 < 12.05
= ±0.45
: ±1.65 𝑜𝑟 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 11.15 𝑡𝑜 12.05
(See table for
commonly used
values of Z or
use the z-table)
10
That is, at the 90% confidence level, we estimate the mean number of
unoccupied seats per flight to be between 11.15 and 12.05 seats during the
sampled year.
Example 2:
A researcher wants to estimate the number of hours that 5-year old children
spend watching television. A sample of 50 five-year old children was observed
to have a mean viewing time of 3 hours. The population is normally
distributed with a population standard deviation 𝜎 = 0,5 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠
a) Find the best point estimate of the population mean
b) Find 95% confidence interval of the population mean
Solution:
critical z- value)
parameter 𝑥̅ = 3 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠 estimate of the 𝑋̅ − 𝑍𝛼⁄2
𝜎
< 𝜇 < 𝑋̅ + 𝑍𝛼⁄2
𝜎
of interest 𝜎 = 0.5 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠 population mean √𝑛 √𝑛
is the mean 95% confidence 𝜇 𝑖𝑠 3 3 − 0.14 < 𝜇 < 33 + 0.14
µ of the interval Margin of error: 2.86 < 𝜇 < 3.14
population Note: 𝜎 𝑜𝑟 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 2.86 𝑡𝑜 3.1
At 95% 𝐸 = ± 𝑍𝛼⁄2 ( )
√𝑛
confidence, 0.5
𝛼 = 0.05 => = ±1.96 ( )
√50
critical z-values = ±1.96 (0.07)
: ±1.96 = ±0.14
That is, at the 95% confidence level, we estimate the mean number of
viewing time of children to be between 2.86 and 3.14 hours.
11
III. ACTIVITY
what is asked:
Activity 1: Find the confidence level and 𝒁𝜶⁄𝟐 for each of the following:
Confidence Level (%) 𝒁 𝜶⁄𝟐
1) 𝛼 = 0.20 ___________ ___________
2) 𝛼 = 0.15 ___________ ___________
3) 𝛼 = 0.25 ___________ ___________
4) 𝛼 = 0.02 ___________ ___________
5) 𝛼 = 0.07 ___________ ___________
Activity 2: Answer the following

1. A random sample of 100 observations from a normally distributed
population possesses a mean equal to 83.2 and a standard deviation equal to
6.4.
a) What is the point estimate for 𝜇 ?
b) Find a 95% confidence interval for 𝜇
c) Find the 99% confidence interval for 𝜇
d) What happens to the width of a confidence interval as the value of the
confidence coefficient is increased while the sample size is held fixed?
2. A sample of 150 Grade 11 students’ ages have been obtained to estimate

the mean age of all Grade 11 students with 𝑋̅ = 16𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝜎 2 = 16. What is the point estimate for 𝜇 ? Find a 90% confidence
interval for 𝜇
IV. REFERENCES:

12
Lesson
t-Distribution
15
✓ Illustrate the t-distribution (M11/SP-IIIg-2)
✓ Identifies regions under the t-distribution corresponding to different
t-values. (M11/SP-IIIg-4)
✓ Identifies percentiles using t-table. (M11/SP-IIIg-5)
1. Illustrate the t-distribution and enumerate its characteristics
2. Differentiate t-distribution with the z-distribution.
3. Identify regions under the t-distribution corresponding to different
t-values.
4. Identify the values of the degree of freedom and the level of confidence
given the t-value.
II. CONTENT
➢ Suppose a pharmaceutical company must estimate the average increase
in blood pressure of patients who take a certain new drug. Assume that
only six patients can be used in the initial phase of human testing. The
use of small sample in making an inference about 𝜇 presents two
immediate problems when we attempt to use standard normal z as a
test statistic.
o The shape of the sampling distribution of the sampling mean 𝑋̅
(and the 𝑧 statistic) now depends on the shape of the population
that is sampled. We can no longer assume that the sampling
distribution of 𝑋̅ is approximately normal, because the Central
Limit Theorem ensures normality only for samples that are
sufficiently large ( 𝑛 ≥ 30 )
o The population standard deviation 𝜎 is almost always unknown.
Although it is still true that 𝜎𝑋̅ = 𝜎 ⁄√𝑛 , the sample standard
deviation s may provide a poor approximation for 𝜎 when the
sample size is small.
➢ Suppose 𝜎 is not known, as is often the case, s is used to estimate and
the sample size is small. We use a different kind of distribution called
the t-distribution.
➢ The 𝑡 distribution was formulated by W.S. Gosset, a chemist in the
Guiness brewery in Ireland, who was involved in researching new
methods of manufacturing ale. He used the pseudonym Student 𝑡
because brewing employees were not allowed to publish results. He
published his discovery in 1908, hence, 𝑡 distribution is sometimes
called Student’s 𝒕 distribution.
13
➢ The main result of Gosset’s work is that if we are sampling from a
normal distribution, the t-statistic has a sampling distribution very
much like that of the 𝑧 -statistic: mound-shaped, symmetric, with mean
0
➢ The primary difference between the sampling distribution of 𝑡 and 𝑧 is
that the 𝑡 -statistic is more variable than 𝑧, which follows intuitively
since 𝑡 contains two random quantities (𝑋̅ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑠 ) , whereas 𝑧 contains
only one (𝑋̅ )
➢ In the 𝑡 distribution, the concept of degrees of freedom, denoted by df,
is used. The degrees of freedom are the number of values that are free to
vary after a sample statistic has been computed. They suggest the
specific curve applicable when a distribution consists of a family of
curves. For example, if 𝑛 = 5, 𝒅𝒇 = 𝒏 − 𝟏 = 5 − 1 = 4, meaning four
values are free to vary and one must be a fixed value.
➢ The actual amount of variability in the sampling distribution of 𝑡
depends on the sample size n. A convenient way of expressing this
dependence is to say that the 𝑡 -statistic has (n – 1) degrees of freedom
(df). Recall that (n-1) is the divisor that appears in the formula 𝑆 2
➢ The smaller the number of degrees of freedom associated with the 𝑡-
statistic, the more variable will be its sampling distribution.
z
t for df =20
t for df =5
➢ Note that 𝑡𝛼 values are listed for degrees of freedom from 1 – 29, where
𝛼 refers to the tail area under the 𝑡 -distribution to the right of 𝑡𝛼
Properties of the t-distribution:

1. Like the normal distribution, the t-distribution is bell-shaped and
symmetric about the mean
2. Like a standard normal distribution (or z-distribution), the t-distribution
has a mean of zero.
3. The mean, median and mode of the t-distribution are located in the center.
4. The t-distribution is a family of curves, each determined by the degree of
freedom which are related to the sample size.
5. As the degrees of freedom increase, the t-distribution approaches the
normal distribution.
6. The total area under a t-curve is equal to 1 (or 100%)
7. The normal distribution assumes that the population standard deviation is
known. The t-distribution does not make this assumption.
8. The t-distribution is most useful for small sample sizes, when the
population standard deviation is not known, or both.
14
Example 1:
Identify the t-value whose number of samples n = 7 and has 𝛼 (alpha) equal to
0.05.
Solution:
To identify the t-value, identify first the degree of freedom using the formula
𝑑𝑓 = 𝑛 − 1 where n is the sample size.
𝑑𝑓 = 𝑛 − 1
𝑑𝑓 = 7 − 1 = 6
Using the Student’s t- Distribution Table (Pls see attached t-table),
locate the degrees of freedom equal to 6. Look for 𝛼 (alpha) equal to 0.05 (two-
tailed)
STUDENT’S t DISTRIBUTION
df 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.025 0.01 0.005 0.0005 One
Tailed
0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.001 Two
𝜶 (𝒂𝒍𝒑𝒉𝒂) Tailed
1 1.000 1.376 1.963 3.078 6.314 12.700 31.821 63.657 636.619
2 0.816 1.061 1.386 1.886 2.920 4.303 6.965 9.925 31.598
…
6 0.718 0.906 1.134 1.440 1.943 2.447 3.143 3.707 5.959
Therefore, the t-value with sample size of 7 and has 𝛼 = 0.05 is 2.447.
Example 2: Find the t-value whose degree of freedom is 20 and has a 99%
confidence level.
Solution:
Since the degree of freedom is already given 𝑑𝑓 = 20, solve for 𝛼(alpha) given
a 99% confidence level
At 99%, 𝛼(alpha) is equal to 1% or 0.01
Locate the t-value on the t-table using 0.01 (two-tailed)
df 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.025 0.01 0.005 0.0005 One
Tailed
0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.001 Two
1 1.000 1.376 1.963 3.078 6.314 12.700 31.821 63.657 636.619
2 0.816 1.061 1.386 1.886 2.920 4.303 6.965 9.925 31.598
…
20 0.687 0.860 1.064 1.325 1.725 2.086 2.528 2.845 3.850
Therefore the t-value is 2.845.
15
Example 3: Identify the t-value of the following percentiles given the number
of samples.
a. 85th percentile , 𝑛 = 30 b. 90th percentile, 𝑛 = 20
Solution:
a. The 85th percentile is the number where 85% of the values lie below it and
15% lie above it, so use one-tailed since the right-tail area is 0.15. Move
across the row, find the column for 0.15 (one-tailed) , and then locate the t-
value using 𝑛 = 30 𝑜𝑟 𝑑𝑓 = 29.
df 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.025 0.01 0.005 0.0005 One
Tailed
0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.001 Two
1 1.000 1.376 1.963 3.078 6.314 12.700 31.821 63.657 636.619
2 0.816 1.061 1.386 1.886 2.920 4.303 6.965 9.925 31.598
…
29 0.683 0.854 1.055 1.311 1.699 2.045 2.462 2.756 3.659
So therefore, the t-value of P85 with 𝑛 = 30 is 1.055.
b. The 90th percentile is the number where 90% of the values lie below it and
10% lie above it, so you want the right-tail area to be 0.10. Move across the
row, find the column for 0.10 (one-tailed), and then locate the t-value using
𝑛 = 20 𝑜𝑟 𝑑𝑓 = 19.
df 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.025 0.01 0.005 0.0005 One
Tailed
0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.001 Two
1 1.000 1.376 1.963 3.078 6.314 12.700 31.821 63.657 636.619
2 0.816 1.061 1.386 1.886 2.920 4.303 6.965 9.925 31.598
…
19 0.688 0.861 1.066 1.328 1.729 2.093 2.539 2.861 3.883
Therefore, the t-value of 90th percentile with 𝑛 = 20 is 1.328
16
III. ACTIVITY
what is asked:
Activity 1:
Find the t-value for each of the following:
1) 𝑛 = 6 80% 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒
Activity 2: Triple Matching Type: Match column A (the t-value) to

Column b (the degree of freedom) and then to column C (the percentile).
A B C
1. 0.978 A. 1 a. 97.5 th percentile
2. 1.734 B. 6 b. 90th percentile
3. 1.000 C. 18 c. 75th percentile
4. 1.345 D. 3 d. 95th percentile
5. 2.447 E. 14 e. 80th percentile
IV. REFERENCES:

17
Lesson Small Sample Confidence
16 Interval For A Population Mean
✓ identifies the appropriate form of confidence interval estimator for the
population mean when; a) the population variance is known; b) the
population variance is unknown; and the Central Limit Theorem is to
be used. (M11/SP12-IIIg-1)
1. Identifies the appropriate form of the confidence interval estimator for
the population mean when the population variance is unknown.
2. Finds confidence interval estimate for the population mean.
II. CONTENT
When to Use the z-test or t-test
YES
Is 𝜎 known? Use 𝑧𝛼 values no matter what the sample size
2
is
NO
YES
Is 𝑛 ≥ 30 ? Use 𝑧𝛼 values and s in place of 𝜎 in the formula
2
NO
Use 𝑡𝛼 values and s in the formula

2
➢ When 𝜎 is known and the sample size is 30 or more, or the sample size
is less than 30 but comes from a population that is approximately
normally distributed, the confidence interval for the population mean
may be found by using the z-distribution.
➢ When 𝜎 is not known, s which is a sample statistic, is used to estimate.
Since the sample size is small instead of using the standard normal
̅ −𝝁
𝑿
statistic z, we use the statistic 𝒕 = 𝑺 and the Student’s t-
√𝒏
distribution
Small Sample Confidence Interval for μ

• The general expression for the confidence interval when 𝜎 is unknown is
𝑠
given by 𝑋̅ ± 𝑡 . The confidence coefficients for 𝑡 are found in the 𝑡 –
√𝑛
Table.
18
• The formula for computing the confidence interval, using the 𝑡
distribution is :
̅ − 𝑡 𝑠 < 𝝁 < 𝑿
𝑿 ̅+ 𝑡 𝑠 𝒐𝒓
√𝑛 √𝑛
̅ − 𝑬 < 𝝁 < 𝑿
𝑿 ̅+ 𝑬
where 𝑡 is based on (n-1) degrees of freedom.

̅ − 𝑡 𝑠
𝑿 is called the lower confidence boundary or limit
√𝑛
𝑠
̅+ 𝑡
𝑿 is called the upper confidence boundary or limit
√𝑛
𝒔
The error E is given by the expression 𝑬 = 𝒕
√𝒏
Assumption : A random sample is selected from a population with a relative
frequency distribution that is approximately normal.
Example1:
Some quality control experiments require destructive sampling (i.e., the test
to determine whether the item is defective ) in order to measure some
particular characteristic of the product. Suppose a manufacturer of printers
for personal computers wishes to estimate the mean number of characters
printed before the printhead fails. The cost of destructive sampling often
dictates small samples. Suppose the printer manufacturer tests 𝑛 = 15
printheads and calculates the following statistics:
𝑋̅ = 1.23 𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑠, 𝑠 = 0.27 𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑠. Form 99% confidence
interval for the mean number of characters printed before the printhead fails.
Solution:
Describe the Specify the confidence Collect and Compute the interval estimate
population criteria. Select the level present sample
parameter of of confidence and the evidence
interest (e.g. corresponding Find the point
mean μ, coefficients (or critical z- estimate and Find
proportion P) value) E (margin of error)
parameter 𝑋̅ = estimate of the 𝑋̅ − 𝑡𝛼⁄2
𝑠
< 𝜇 < 𝑋̅ + 𝑡𝛼⁄2
𝑠
1.23 𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑠 √𝑛 √𝑛
of interest population
𝑠 0.27
is the mean mean 𝜇 𝑖𝑠 1.23 1.23 − 2.977 < 𝜇
= 0.27 𝑚𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑠
µ of the Margin of error: √15
At 99% or 0.99 0.27
population  𝛼 = 0.01 𝑆 < 1.23 + 2.977
𝐸 = 𝑡( ) √15
𝑑𝑓 = 𝑛 − 1 √𝑛
= 15 − 1 = 14 0.27
= ±2.977 1.23 − 0.21 < 𝜇
𝑡𝛼⁄2 = 𝑡0.01 = 2.977 √15
= ±0.21 < 1.23 + 0.21
1.02 < 𝜇 < 1.44

𝑜𝑟 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 1.02 𝑡𝑜 1.44
19
Thus, the manufacturer can be 99% confident that the printhead has a
mean life between 1.02 and 1.44 million characters.
Example2:
Sandra has observed that the mean age of 18 youth volunteers in a church
project is 17.5 years with a standard deviation of 2 years. If the sample
comes from an approximately normal distribution, what are the point and
interval estimates of the population mean? Adopt a 95% confidence interval.
Solution:
critical z- value)
parameter 𝑋̅ = 17.5 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 estimate of the 𝑋̅ − 𝑡𝛼⁄2
𝑠
< 𝜇 < 𝑋̅ + 𝑡𝛼⁄2
𝑠
√𝑛 √𝑛
of interest 𝑠 = 2 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 population mean
2
is the mean At 95% or 0.95 𝜇 𝑖𝑠 17.5 17.5 − 2.110 < 𝜇
µ of the  𝛼 = 0.05 Margin of error: √18
population 𝑑𝑓 = 𝑛 − 1 𝑆 2
𝐸 = 𝑡( ) < 17.5 + 2.110
= 18 − 1 = 17 √18
√𝑛
𝑡𝛼⁄2 = 𝑡0.05 = 2
2.110 = ±2.110 17.5 − 0.99 < 𝜇
√18
= ±0.99 < 17.5 + 0.99
16.51 < 𝜇 < 18.49

𝑜𝑟 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 16.51 𝑡𝑜 18.49
That is, at the 95% confidence level, we estimate the mean age of youth
volunteers in a church project to be between 16 to 18 years old.
20
III. ACTIVITY
what is asked:
Activity 1:
Suppose you have selected a random sample of n = 7 measurements from a
normal distribution. Compare the standard normal z-values with the
corresponding t-values given the following confidence intervals.
𝑍 𝛼 ⁄2 𝑡 𝛼 ⁄2
1. 80% 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑎𝑙 ___________ ___________
Activity 2: Solve the following.

1. Rhea wants to know the mean of all entering trainees in a camp. The
mean age of a random sample of 25 trainees is 18 years and the
standard deviation is 1.3 years. The sample comes from a normally
distributed population. Use 𝛼 = 0.1. Find the point estimate, margin of
error and the interval estimate of the population mean. Describe your
results.
2. Miss Romero noted that the mean scores of a random sample of 15
Grade 11 students who had taken a special test was 80.5. If the
standard deviation of the scores was 3.1, and the sample came from an
approximately normal population, using 95% confidence. Find the point
estimate, margin of error and the interval estimate of the population
mean. Describe your results.
IV. REFERENCES:

21
0.25
22
STATISTICS and
PROBABILITY

ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS- 2
Lesson 17: The Point Estimate For The Population
Proportion P
Lesson 18: Large Sample Confidence Interval For A
Population Proportion
Lesson 19: Determining The Sample Size
23
Lesson The Point Estimate For The
17 Population Proportion P

✓ identifies point estimator for the population proportion
(M11/12SP-IIIi-1)
✓ computes for the point estimate of the population proportion
(M11/12SP-IIIi-2)
✓ identifies the appropriate form of the confidence interval estimator for
the population proportion based on the Central Limit Theorem
(M11/12SP-IIIi-3)
1. identify the point estimator for the population proportion.
2. compute for the point estimate of the population proportion.
3. use appropriate form of the confidence interval estimator for the population
proportion based on the Central Limit Theorem.
II. CONTENT
Surveys are conducted to draw out people’s perceptions about public
personalities, events or ideas. They provide information that may increase
people’s awareness of particular issues and may guide their decisions and
actions. Survey results are reliable when they come from random samples of a
target population.
Proportion can be used to represent samples from a certain population.

Proportion is a fractional expression, where the favorable response is in the
numerator and the total number of respondents is in the denominator. The
basic operation involves division. Thus, the result is a decimal value that can
be expressed as percent.
Percentages are commonly used when reporting frequencies of subsets of

populations. They can also be converted to decimal form. Proportions
represent probabilities which can be obtained from samples or from a
population.
➢ Symbols to be used
𝑃 = population proportion
𝑛 = number of observations in a simple random sample
𝑝̂ = sample proportion ( read as “ p-hat”)
𝑞̂ = complement of 𝑝̂ ( read as “ q-hat”)
24
➢ Formulas to be used
𝑵𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒅𝒆𝒔𝒊𝒓𝒆𝒅 𝒐𝒖𝒕𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒔 𝒙
̂=
𝒑 =
𝑵𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝒔𝒂𝒎𝒑𝒍𝒆 𝒆𝒍𝒆𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒔 𝒏
̂ =𝟏− 𝒑
𝒒 ̂
where 𝒙 is the number of sample elements that possess the desired
characteristics and 𝒏 is the sample size
Characteristics of the Sampling Distribution of 𝒑 ̂

1) The estimator of the population proportion 𝑝 is 𝑝̂
2) The mean of the sampling distribution of 𝑝̂ is 𝑝 : that is, 𝑝̂ is the
unbiased estimator of 𝑝
𝒑𝒒
3) The standard deviation of the sampling distribution of 𝑝̂ is √ ; that is
𝒏
𝒑𝒒
𝝈𝒑 = √ where 𝒒 = 𝟏 − 𝒑
𝒏
4) For large samples, the sampling distribution of 𝑝̂ is approximately
normal. A sample size is considered large if the interval 𝑝̂ ± 3𝜎𝑝 does
not include 0 or 1 (like 𝑝 = 0.001) or ( like 𝑝 = 0.99 )
Example 1:
In a job satisfaction survey in a certain factory, 700 employees were asked if
they were satisfied with their jobs. There were 518 who responded with a YES.
What proportion of the population is this? What proportion responded a NO?
Solution:
Describe the Specify the Compute the given values Draw a conclusion
population given
parameter of information
interest (e.g.
mean μ,
proportion P)
The 𝑛 = 700 Use 𝑝̂ to represent the The proportion of
parameter of (sample proportion of YES responses YES responses is
interest is size) 𝑥 518 0.74 which
the 𝑥 = 518 𝑝̂ = = = 0.74 means that 74%
𝑛 700
population (number of Use 𝑞̂ to represent the of the employees
proportion p respondents proportion of NO responses are satisfied with
of employees who 𝑞̂ = 1 − 𝑝̂ = 1 − 0.74 = 0.26 their jobs. The
indicated proportion of NO
YES) responses is 0.26
which means
that 26% of the
employees are
not satisfied.
25
➢ Note: The point estimate of the population is 0.74 or 74%. This means
that if we were to draw random samples of 700 people over and over
again, each time calculating a 𝑝̂ , the mean proportion is 74%
Example 2:
In a survey of 300 individuals, 128 like to watch movies on the big screen.
Estimate the true population proportion 𝑝 and 𝑞 where 𝑝̂ is the proportion of
those who like to watch movies on the big screen based on the sample.
Solution:
The 𝑛 = 300 Use 𝑝̂ to represent the Therefore, 43% of
parameter of (sample proportion of those who like the individuals
interest is size) to watch movies on the big like to watch
the 𝑥 = 128 screen movies in the big
population (number of 𝑥 128 screen, while
proportion p respondents 𝑝
̂ = = = 0.426 = 0.43 57% do not. (It is
𝑛 300
of those who who like to The point estimate of the possible that the
like to watch watch population is 0.43 or 43%. 57% watch
movies on movies on Use 𝑞̂ to represent the movies using TV,
the big the big proportion of those who do laptops,
screen screen) not cellphones or
tablets)
𝑞̂ = 1 − 𝑝̂ = 1 − 0.43 = 0.57
Example 3:
Toni conducted a survey for a fast food restaurant owner who wanted to know
the level of acceptability of a new food combo among customers. A tally of the
frequencies yielded the following results.
Frequency (F)
Acceptable (A) 87
Very Acceptable 193
(VA)
a) What is the sample size?
b) What percentage of the respondents find the new food combo very
acceptable?
c) What percentage of the population find the new food combo
acceptable?
d) What conclusion may be derived from the frequencies?
26
Solution:
The 𝑛 = Use 𝑝̂ to represent the Therefore, 69% of
parameter of 87 + 193 proportion of those who find the customers
interest is 𝑛 = 280 the new food combo very who find the new
the (sample acceptable food combo very
population size) 𝑥 193 acceptable, while
proportion p 𝑥 = 193 𝑝̂ = = = 0.689 = 0.69 31% do not (or
𝑛 280
of those who (number Use 𝑞̂ to represent the simply acceptable)
find the new of proportion of those who do not
food combo customers
𝑞̂ = 1 − 𝑝̂ = 1 − 0.69 = 0.31
very who find
acceptable the new
food
combo
very
acceptable
Answer:
a) The sample size n is 280
b) The percentage of the respondents who find the new food combo very
acceptable is 69%
c) The percentage of the respondents who find the new food combo acceptable
is 31%
d) Only 69% find the new food combo very acceptable. The decision whether to
continue with the new food combo is relative to the owner’s view of the matter.
The owner can decide on what actions to undertake to enhance the cceptability
of the new food combo.
27
III. ACTIVITY
what is asked:
Activity 1: Complete the table

Situation number total sample 𝑞̂
of number proportio
favorable of n 𝒑̂
response responde
X nts n
1. In a classroom, 36 out of 50
students can solve the given fraction.
2. In ANS, 429 grade 11 students were
asked in which academic strand they
belong. 226 responded that their
strand belongs to STEM, while those
who did not respond are from HUMSS
and ABM.
3. A jar contains 1,000 assorted
colored candies, 600 were colored
blue. What is the proportion of blue
candies?
Activity 2: Read, analyze, and answer the following. Write your

conclusion.
1. In a classroom consisting of 45 students, 27 students watch K-drama in a
daily basis. How many students didn’t watch K-drama? Estimate the value of
𝑝̂ and 𝑞̂.
2. In a political rally, an opinion poll was conducted among the present voters
if they approve the platform of the candidate. 201 said they do not approve. If
there were 500 individuals in the sample, what is 𝑝̂ ? what is 𝑞̂ ?
3. A certain barangay embarked on a QUIT SMOKING program among the
constituents. A survey was made among a sample of 200 smoking individuals
of the village asking who would join the program. 118 said they would join the
program. What are the values of 𝑝̂ and 𝑞̂ ?
IV. REFERENCES:

28
Lesson Large Sample Confidence
Interval For A Population
18 Proportion
✓ compute for the confidence interval estimate of the population
proportion. (M11/12SP-IIIi-4)
✓ solves problems involving confidence interval estimation of the
population proportion (M11/12SP-IIIi-5)
1. compute for the confidence interval estimate of the population proportion.
2. solve problems involving confidence interval estimation of the population
proportion.
II. CONTENT
Just like the means, confidence intervals can also be formed about the
population proportion p. Furthermore, a probability can also be assigned that
the interval contains the population proportion. The interval depends on the
sampling distribution of 𝑝̂ , that is, if random samples are drawn over and
over again, each time calculating a new estimate 𝑝̂ , then the frequency
distribution of all the 𝑝̂ values is p. Thus, 𝑝̂ is an unbiased estimator of p.
➢ Assumptions in finding a confidence interval for a population
proportion
1. The sample is a random sample
2. The conditions for a binomial experiment are satisfied.
Large Sample Confidence Interval for P
The formula for computing a large sample confidence interval for a population
proportion p
̂𝒒
𝒑 ̂ ̂𝒒
𝒑 ̂
̂ − 𝒁𝜶⁄𝟐 √
𝒑 ̂ + 𝒁𝜶⁄𝟐 √
<𝒑< 𝒑 𝒐𝒓
𝒏 𝒏
̂ − 𝑬 <𝒑 < 𝒑
𝒑 ̂+ 𝑬
𝒙
where 𝒑̂ = ̂ = 𝟏− 𝒑
𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝒒 ̂
𝒏
̂𝒒
𝒑 ̂
̂ − 𝒁𝜶⁄𝟐 √
𝒑 is called the lower confidence boundary or limit
𝒏
̂𝒒
𝒑 ̂
̂ + 𝒁𝜶⁄𝟐 √
𝒑 is called the upper confidence boundary or limit
𝒏
Note: When 𝑛 is large, 𝑝̂ can approximate the value of 𝑝 in the formula for 𝜎𝑝̂
29
The margin of error E for the confidence interval of a population
proportion:
𝒑𝒒 ̂𝒒
𝒑 ̂
𝑬 = 𝒁𝜶⁄𝟐 √ ≈ 𝒁𝜶⁄𝟐 √
𝒏 𝒏
Recall:
Commonly Used Values of 𝒁𝜶⁄𝟐
Confidence Level 𝛼 𝛼 ⁄2 𝑍𝛼⁄2 Confidence
100 ( 1 - 𝛼 ) % Boundary
90% 0.10 0.05 ±2.575 ≈ ±2.58 𝑍𝛼⁄2 ± 1.65
95% 0. 05 0.025 ±1.96 𝑍𝛼⁄2 ± 1.96
99% 0. 01 0.005 ±1.645 ≈ ±1.65 𝑍𝛼⁄2 ± 2.58
Example 1:
A survey of 1200 citizens showed that 715 trust the president. Compute a
95% confidence interval for the proportion of all citizens who trust the
president.
Solution:
Describe the Specify the Collect and present sample Compute the interval
population confidence evidence estimate
parameter of criteria. Select Find the point estimate and
interest (e.g. the level of Find E (margin of error)
mean μ, confidence and
proportion P) the
corresponding
coefficients (or
critical z- value)
The 𝑛 = 1200 715
𝑝̂ = 1200 = 0.5958 ≈ 0.60 Interval estimate:
parameter 𝑥 = 715 𝑞̂ = 1 − 0.60 = 0.40
of interest 95% 𝑝̂ 𝑞̂
The point estimate of p is 𝑝̂ − 𝑍𝛼⁄2 √ < 𝑝
is the confidence 0.40
𝑛
population interval Margin of error:
proportion Note: 𝑝̂ 𝑞̂
< 𝑝̂ + 𝑍𝛼⁄2 √
p of all At 95% 𝑝̂ 𝑞̂ 𝑛
𝐸 = 𝑍𝛼⁄2 √
citizens confidence, 𝑛
0.60 − 0.028 < 𝑝
who trust 𝛼 = 0.05 =>
the critical z (0.60)(0.40) < 0.60 + 0.028
= 1.96 √
president values : 1200
±1.96 = 1.96 ( 0.014) = 0.028 0.572 < 𝑝 < 0.628
Thus, with 95% confidence, we can state that the interval from 57.2% to
62.8% contains the true percentage of all citizens who trust the president.
30
➢ NOTE: When decisions are made based on observations, the reliability
of our estimator should be assured. This can be done by having large
numbers of random samples drawn from the population.
Example 2:
In a survey of 500 random households in a particular village, mothers have
been asked if they use cellphones to communicate. There are 376 who have
said YES. Use a 95% confidence to estimate the proportion of al mothers who
use the cellphone to communicate.
Solution:
The 𝑛 = 500 𝑝̂ =
376
= 0.752 ≈ 0.75 Interval estimate:
500
parameter of 𝑥 = 376
𝑞̂ = 1 − 0.75 = 0.25 𝑝̂ 𝑞̂
interest is 95% 𝑝̂ − 𝑍 √ < 𝑝
the confidence The point estimate of p 𝛼 ⁄ 2
𝑛
population interval is 0.75
proportion p Note: Margin of error: 𝑝̂ 𝑞̂
< 𝑝̂ + 𝑍𝛼⁄2 √
of all At 95% 𝑛
𝑝̂ 𝑞̂
mothers who confidence, 𝐸 = 𝑍𝛼⁄2 √
use 𝛼 = 0.05 => 𝑛 0.75 − 0.038 < 𝑝
cellphones to critical z < 0.75 + 0.038
(0.75)(0.25)
communicate values : = 1.96 √ 0.712 < 𝑝 < 0.788
±1.96 500
= 1.96 ( 0.019) = 0.038
Thus, with 95% confidence, we can state that the interval from 71.2% to
78.8% contains the true percentage of all mothers who use cellphones to
communicate.
Interpreting Interval Estimate of A Population Proportion

➢ The guidelines that we have used to interpret a confidence interval for μ
also apply to the interpretations of a confidence interval for a population
proportion p.
Example 3:
The registrar of a university has conducted a pre-survey of selected courses in
the university. Of 850 randomly selected students, 368 have said they like the
Science course. With 95% confidence, what interpretation can we make
regarding the probability that ALL students in the university wanted to major
in Science?
a) Point Estimate
Steps Solution
1) Describe the population The parameter of interest is the mean
parameter of interest proportion p of all students in the university
who wanted to major in Science
31
2) Specify the confidence
interval criteria
a. Check the assumptions By the CLT, the sample size of 850 is
normally distributed
b. Determine the test The test statistic is p
statistic to be used to
calculate the interval
c. State the level of Confidence level: 95% and 𝛼 = 0.05
confidence Confidence coefficient: 𝑍𝛼⁄2 = ± 1.96
3) Collect and present
sample evidence
a. Collect the sample X = 368 and n = 850
information
b. Find the point estimate 368
𝑝̂ = = 0.4329 ≈ 0.43
850
The point estimate of the population
proportion is 0.43 or 43%
b) Interval Estimate, 95% Confidence
4) Compute the interval
estimate
a. Find 𝑞̂ 𝑞̂ = 1 − 𝑝̂ = 1 − 0.43 = 0.57
b. Substitute the value of n
𝑝̂ 𝑞̂ (0.43)( 0.57)
in the formula to find 𝐸 = 𝑍𝛼⁄2 √ = 1.96 √ = 0.033
the maximum error of 𝑛 850
estimate
c. Find the limits Lower Limit
𝑝̂ − 𝐸 = 0.43 − 0.033 = 0.397 = 39.7 %
Upper Limit
𝑝̂ + 𝐸 = 0.43 + 0.033 = 0.463 = 46.3 %
d. Describe the results Thus, with 95% confidence, we can assert
that the interval from 39.7% to 46.3%
contains the true percentage of all graduate
students who want to major in Science.
32
III. ACTIVITY
what is asked:
Activity 1: Compute the margin of error and population interval
estimate given n, 𝒑̂ and the confidence level.
1. 𝑛 = 300 𝑝̂ = 0.40 95% 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒
2. 𝑛 = 500 𝑝̂ = 0.23 95% 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒
3. 𝑛 = 420 𝑝̂ = 0.61 90% 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒
4.𝑛 = 670 𝑝̂ = 0.54 99% 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒
5. 𝑛 = 710 𝑝̂ = 0.63 99% 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒
Activity 2: Solve the following. Indicate x, n, 𝒑 ̂, 𝒒

̂, margin of error and
interval estimate. Write your conclusion.
1. Ismael conducted a poll survey in which 320 of 600 randomly selected
voters indicated their preference for a certain candidate. Using a 90%
confidence interval, what is the true population proportion p of voters
who prefer the candidate?
2. Juan conducted an opinion poll among employees to determine if they
approve the use of biometrics. There were 365 who said they approved
the use. If there were 528 in the sample, using a 95% confidence
interval, what is the true population proportion p of employees who
approve the use of biometrics?
3. A sample of 390 senior high school students applied to different state
universities, wherein 117 are female. Find the 99% confidence interval
of the true population proportion who applied for different state
universities.
IV. REFERENCES:

33
Lesson Determining
19 The Sample Size

✓ compute for the length of the confidence interval (M11/12SP-IIIj-2)
✓ compute for an appropriate sample size using the length of the interval
(M11/12SP-IIIj-3)
✓ solves problems involving sample size determination (M11/12SP-IIIj-4)
1. determine the margin of error compute for the length of the confidence
interval when:
a) standard deviation is known
b) standard deviation is unknown.
2. compute an appropriate sample size using the length of the interval.
3. solve problems involving sample size determination.
II. CONTENT
➢ One way to collect the relevant data for a study used to make inferences
about the population is to implement a designed (planned) experiment.
The most important design decision faced by the analyst is to determine
the size of sample. Getting the right sample size should be addressed
properly so that waste of resources is prevented.
➢ There are two things to remember when we decide on the quality of the
sample size we need: confidence and the narrowness of the interval
➢ The computing formula in determining the sample size is derived from

the formula of the margin of error E.
𝜎 𝑍 ∙ 𝜎
𝐸 = 𝑍𝛼⁄2 ( ) = 𝛼⁄2
√𝑛 √𝑛
𝑍𝛼⁄2 ∙ 𝜎 𝑍𝛼⁄2 ∙ 𝜎 2
√𝑛 = => 𝑛= ( )
𝐸 𝐸
Formula In Determining the Minimum Sample Size Needed When

Estimating the Population Mean
𝒁𝜶⁄𝟐 ∙ 𝝈 𝟐
𝒏= ( )
𝑬
Note: When determining the sample size, we always round up the resulting
value to the next whole number.
34
Example 1:
In a certain village, Ciony wants to estimate the mean weight 𝜇, in kilograms,
of all five-year old children to be included in a feeding program. She wants to
be 99% confident that the estimate of 𝜇 is accurate to within 0.06 kg. Suppose
from a previous study, the standard deviation of the weights of the target
population was 0.5 kg, what should the sample size be?
Solution:
Describe the Specify the given Compute the sample Write a conclusion
population and confidence size
parameter of criteria.
interest (e.g.
mean μ,
proportion P)
The Given: 𝑍𝛼⁄2 ∙ 𝜎 2 Round up the value
𝑛= ( )
parameter 99% confidence 𝐸 to 463.
2
of interest interval (2.58)(0.5) So, the required
is the Note: =( )
0.06 sample size is 463
population At 99% five-year old
= 462.25
mean 𝜇 confidence,𝛼 = children for the
0.01 => critical z feeding program.
values: ±2.58
Margin of error or
level of accuracy:
𝑬 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟔 𝒌𝒈
Standard
deviation:
𝝈 = 𝟎. 𝟓 𝒌𝒈
Example 2:
Christian wanted to study the eating habits of an indigenous group tribe. He
wants to estimate the population mean 𝜇 to within an error of 0.03 of its true
value. Previous studies have revealed a standard deviation of 0.4. Using 95%
confidence level, find the sample size n that he needs.
Solution:
The Given: 𝑍 ∙ 𝜎 2 Round up the value
𝑛 = ( 𝛼⁄2 )
parameter 95% confidence 𝐸 to 683.
2
of interest interval ( )(
1.96 0.4 ) So, the required
is the Note: =( )
0.03 sample size is 683.
population At 95%
= 682.95
mean 𝜇 confidence,
𝛼 = 0.05 =>
critical z values:
±1.96
35
Margin of error or
level of accuracy:
𝑬 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟑
Standard
deviation:
𝝈 = 𝟎. 𝟒
➢ The computing formula in determining the sample size is derived from

the formula of the margin of error E.
2
𝑝̂ 𝑞̂ 𝐸 𝑝̂ 𝑞̂ 𝐸 𝑝̂ 𝑞̂
𝐸 = 𝑍𝛼⁄2 √ ⇒ = √ ⇒ ( ) = ⇒
𝑛 𝑍𝛼⁄2 𝑛 𝑍𝛼⁄2 𝑛
𝑍𝛼⁄2 2
𝑛 = 𝑝̂ 𝑞̂ ( )
𝐸
Formula In Determining the Minimum Sample Size Needed When
Estimating the Population Proportion
𝒁𝜶⁄𝟐 𝟐
̂𝒒
𝒏= 𝒑 ̂ ( )
𝑬
Note: When determining the sample size, round up the resulting value to the
nearest whole number.
➢ In determining the sample size for estimating a population proportion,

there are two situations to consider
1) If some approximation of 𝑝̂ is known, that value may be used in the
formula.
2) If no approximation is known, use 𝑝̂ = 0.5 The value will result in a
sample size large enough to guarantee prediction, given the
confidence interval and the error of estimate. The reason is that when
𝑝̂ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑞̂ 𝑎𝑟𝑒 0.5 each, the product is at maximum.
Example 3:
Mary wants to know with 95% confidence, the proportion of households who
like to use detergent X. A previous survey showed that 42% like to use
detergent X. Mary would like to be accurate within 2% of the true proportion.
What sample size does Mary need?
36
Solution:
The Given: 𝑍𝛼⁄2 2
Round up the
parameter 95% confidence 𝑛 = 𝑝̂ 𝑞̂ ( ) value to 2 340.
𝐸
of interest interval 1.96 2 Thus, Mary needs
is the Note: = (0.42)(0.58) ( ) a sample size of 2
0.02
population At 95% = 2339.53 340 respondents.
proportion confidence,𝛼 =
p 0.05 => critical
z values: ±1.96
Margin of error
or level of
accuracy: 𝑬 =
𝟐% 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐
𝒑̂ = 𝟒𝟐% 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟒𝟐
̂ = 𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟒𝟐
𝒒
= 𝟎. 𝟓𝟖
Example 4:
The Dean of a college wants to use the proportion of the population to
determine the sample size needed to interview regarding their thoughts about
the new school structure. She wants to be able to assert with a probability
0.95 that her error will be at most 0.05. Similar polls in the past showed that
65% approved the new structure. How large a sample does the Dean need?
Solution:
The Given: 𝑍𝛼⁄2 2
Round up the
parameter 95% confidence 𝑛 = 𝑝̂ 𝑞
̂ ( ) value to 350.
𝐸
of interest interval 1.96 2 Thus, the Dean
is the Note: = (0.65)(0.35) ( ) needs a sample
0.05
population At 95% = 349.5856 size of 350
proportion confidence,𝛼 = respondents.
p 0.05 => critical
z values: ±1.96
Margin of error
or level of
accuracy: 𝑬 =
𝟎. 𝟎𝟓
𝒑̂ = 𝟔𝟓% 𝒐𝒓 𝟎. 𝟔𝟓
̂ = 𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟔𝟓
𝒒
= 𝟎. 𝟑𝟓
37
III. ACTIVITY
what is asked:
Activity 1: Find the sample size for each of the following
A.
B.
1. 𝐸 = 0.02 𝜎 = 0.5 90% 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒
1. 𝐸 = 0.08 𝑝̂ = 0.38 90% 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒
2. 𝐸 = 0.15 𝜎 = 0.4 95% 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒
2. 𝐸 = 0.05 𝑝̂ = 0.42 95% 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒
3. 𝐸 = 0.05 𝜎 = 0.6 99% 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒
3. 𝐸 = 0.20 𝑝̂ = 0.56 99% 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒
Activity 2: Solve the given problems. Follow the 4 steps and write your
final answer.
1. A particular brand of coffee contains an average of 112 mg of caffeine per
cup with a standard deviation of 20 mg. Mariz wanted to investigate the same
to estimate the true population mean caffeine content correct to within 5mg
adopting 95% confidence. How many cups of the same brand of coffee does
she need for a sample?
2. In a paper presentation, the average algebraic reasoning of Grade 8
students in Mathematics camp was observed to be 80 with a standard
deviation of 4.2. A researcher wants to replicate the study to estimate the true
population mean μ to within 0.5 maximum error. If the 90% level of
confidence is adopted, how many respondents are needed?
3. A politician wanted to know the chances of winning in the next election. He
has tasked a researcher to interview a random sample of his constituents
about their perceptions of his leadership. Previous polls have revealed that
approximately 62.5% are in favor of his leadership. The politician has adopted
the 0.95 level of confidence and of the population value by at most 0.02. How
many respondents must be interviewed?
IV. REFERENCES:

38
39
STATISTICS and
PROBABILITY

HYPOTHESIS TESTING
Lesson 20: Understanding Hypothesis Testing
Lesson 21: Comparing the Sample Mean and the
Population Mean in a Large Sample Size
Lesson 22: Conducting Small Sample Test About
the Population Mean
Lesson 23: Conducting Significance Tests Using the
Probability Approach
Lesson 24: Testing Hypothesis Involving Proportions
40
Lesson Understanding
20 Hypothesis Testing

✓ illustrates: (a) null hypothesis; (b) alternative hypothesis; (c)level of
significance; (d) rejection region; and (e) types of errors in hypothesis
testing (M11 /12SP-IVa-1)
✓ identifies the parameter to be tested given a real- life problem
(M11 /12SP-IVa-3)
1. identify the null hypothesis and alternative hypothesis
2. identify the parameter to be tested
II. CONTENT
A hypothesis is formulated when a tentative explanation of facts about a
particular phenomenon is made. The hypothesis may be correct or incorrect
depending on the available evidences gathered. A sample is used to gather
information to validate the hypothesis. The data gathered becomes the basis
of the decision whether to accept or reject the hypothesis after analyzing with
the use of statistical procedure.
➢ A statistical hypothesis is a tentative statement, assumption or
explanation about the numerical value of a population parameter. It is a
conjecture or assertion about a parameter which aims to explain facts
about a certain phenomenon. A hypothesis needs to be resolved whether it
is true or not. Thus, it must be subjected to statistical testing procedure
known as test of hypothesis or hypothesis testing. If the hypothesis is
found to be true, it is accepted; if it is found to be false, it is rejected.
Examples:
Claim/Hypothesis: The average weight loss for a sample of people who
exercise 30 minutes per day for 6 weeks is
greater than 3.7 kg.
Claim/Hypothesis: The average daily allowance of Gr.7 students in public
schools is Php75.
HYPOTHESIS TESTING is a decision-making process for evaluating claims

about a population based on the characteristics of a sample purportedly
coming from the population. The decision is whether the characteristic is
acceptable or not.
41
➢ KINDS OF HYPOTHESIS:
o A null hypothesis, ( 𝑯𝟎 ) is a theory about the values of one or more
population parameters. The theory generally represents the status quo,
which we accept until it is proven false. It is a statement that there is no
difference between a parameter and a specific value. ( 𝑯𝟎 ∶ 𝝁 = 𝝁𝟏 )
o An alternative hypothesis, ( 𝑯𝟏 ) is a theory that contradicts the null

hypothesis. The theory generally represents that which we will accept only
when sufficient evidence exists to establish its truth. It is a statement that
there exists a difference between a parameter and a specific value. ( 𝑯𝟏 ∶
𝝁 ≠ 𝝁𝟏 ), ( 𝑯𝟏 ∶ 𝝁 > 𝝁𝟏 ) or ( 𝑯𝟏 ∶ 𝝁 < 𝝁𝟏 )
➢ TYPES OF TESTS:
o Non-Directional Test.
When the alternative hypothesis utilizes the not equal symbol ( ≠ ), the
test is said to be non-directional. It is also called a two-tailed test since
there is no assertion made on the direction of the difference. The rejection
or critical region is split into two equal parts, one in each tail of the
sampling distribution.
o Directional Test.
When the alternative hypothesis utilizes the greater than ( > ) or the
less than ( < ) symbol, the test is said to be directional. It is also called a
one-tailed test since the rejection or critical region lies entirely on one tail
of the sampling distribution. A directional test may either be left-tailed ( < )
or right-tailed ( > ).
Note: The null hypothesis is always expressed with the “equal” ( = )

symbol. It is always a statement that a parameter is equal to a specific value.
On the other hand, the alternative hypothesis is expressed with ≠ , > , 𝑜𝑟 <
symbols depending on the given conjecture or claim.
Example 1:
Claim: The average monthly income of Filipino families who belong to low
income bracket is Php 8 000.
𝑯𝟎 : The average monthly income of Filipino families is 𝑷𝒉𝒑 𝟖 𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝑯𝟎 : 𝝁 = 𝟖 𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝑯𝟏 : The average monthly income of Filipino families is not equal to
𝑷𝒉𝒑 𝟖 𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝑯𝟏 : 𝝁 ≠ 𝟖 𝟎𝟎𝟎
➢ Non-directional or two-tailed test
42
Example 2:
Claim: A farmer believes that using organic fertilizers on his plants will yield
greater income. His average income from the past was Php 200 000 per
year. State the hypotheses in symbols.
𝑯𝟎 : Using organic fertilizers on plants will yield an income of 𝑷𝒉𝒑 𝟐𝟎𝟎 𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝑯𝟎 : 𝝁 = 𝟐𝟎𝟎 𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝑯𝟏 : Using organic fertilizers on plants will yield an income greater than
𝑷𝒉𝒑 𝟐𝟎𝟎 𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝑯𝟏 : 𝝁 > 𝟐𝟎𝟎 𝟎𝟎𝟎
➢ Directional or one-tailed test → right-tailed test
Example 3:
Claim: The average number of hours that it takes a 10-year-old child to
learn a certain task in a specific subject is less than 0.52 hour.
𝑯𝟎 : The average number of hours that it takes to learn a certain task is
𝟎. 𝟓𝟐 𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒓 𝑯𝟎 : 𝝁 = 𝟎. 𝟓𝟐
𝑯𝟏 : The average number of hours that it takes to learn a certain task is
less than 𝟎. 𝟓𝟐 𝒉𝒐𝒖𝒓 𝑯𝟏 : 𝝁 < 𝟎. 𝟓𝟐
➢ Directional or one-tailed test → left-tailed test
➢ TYPES OF ERROR:
In decision making, we sometimes make a wrong decision. Likewise,
when we test a hypothesis, there is a possibility that we shall also
commit an error of accepting or rejecting the hypothesis.
o Type I Error.
Occurs when we reject the null hypothesis when it is true. It is
also called alpha error ( 𝜶 𝒆𝒓𝒓𝒐𝒓 )
o Type II Error.
Occurs when we accept the null hypothesis when it is false. It is
also called beta error ( 𝜷 𝒆𝒓𝒓𝒐𝒓 )
➢ Four Possible Outcomes in Decision-Making

Decision about 𝑯𝟎
Do not
Reject 𝑯𝟎
Reject 𝑯𝟎
TYPE I Correct
𝑯𝟎 is true
Error decision
Reality
Correct TYPE II
𝑯𝟎 is false
decision Error
Error in Correct
Type Probability Type Probability
Decision Decision
Reject a Accept a
I 𝜶 A 𝟏− 𝜶
true 𝑯𝟎 true 𝑯𝟎
Accept a Reject a
II 𝜷 B 𝟏−𝜷
false 𝑯𝟎 false 𝑯𝟎
43
➢ Level of Significance
The probability of committing Type I error is called the level of
significance. It is denoted by the Greek letter
𝜶 (𝒂𝒍𝒑𝒉𝒂) . The choice for the value of the significance level is
determined by the researcher. This depends on the risk or degree of
confidence the researcher is willing to take in committing Type I error.
The value of 𝜶 is usually chosen to be small. The commonly used levels
of significance are 0.10, 0.05 and 0.01. The level of significance
should be set before testing the hypothesis.
Graphical representations:
( 𝑯𝟏 ∶ 𝝁 ≠ 𝝁𝟏 ) ( 𝑯𝟏 ∶ 𝝁 > 𝝁𝟏 ) ( 𝑯𝟏 ∶ 𝝁 < 𝝁𝟏 )
Non-directional (Two- Directional (Two- Directional (Two-
tailed) tailed, Right-tailed) tailed, Left-tailed)
Rejection Rejection Rejection Rejection

Region Acceptance Region Region Region
Acceptance Acceptance
Region Region Region
III. ACTIVITY
what is asked:
Activity 1: Formulate a null hypothesis and its alternative hypothesis
for each of the following. Write them in words and symbols.
1. The average viewing time of all 5 year old children is 4 hours daily.
2. A college librarian claims that 20 storybooks on the average are borrowed daily.
3. The average number of vehicles passing through NLEX daily is less than 21 000.
4. The inventor of a new kind of light bulb claims that all such bulbs last as long as
3 000 hours
5. The mean content of citric acid in a bottle of juice drinks is greater than 2 mL.
Activity 2: Determine whether the test is two-tailed or one-tailed. If it is
one tailed, indicate if it is left-tailed or right-tailed.
1. A researcher claims that method of teaching affects learning.
2. A food additive enhances food flavor.
3. Having a study habit improves the memory.
4. Health is related to lifestyle.
5. Lack of sleep decreases work performance.
IV. REFERENCES:

44
Lesson Comparing the Sample Mean
and the Population Mean
21 in a Large Sample Size
✓ formulates the appropriate null and alternative hypotheses on a
population mean (M11 /12SP-IVb-1)
✓ identifies the appropriate form of the test-statistic and rejection region
(M11 /12SP-IVb-2, IVc-1)
✓ computes and draws conclusion about the population mean based on
the test-statistic value and the rejection region) (M11 /12SP-IVd-1-2)
1. form the appropriate null and alternative hypotheses
2. identify the test-statistic to be used and the rejection region
II. CONTENT
➢ A one-population test is a test conducted on one sample purportedly
coming from a population mean 𝜇 . It is sometimes called a significance
test for a single mean or one-sample mean.
➢ The test statistic is the z when 𝒏 ≥ 𝟑𝟎 . The z-statistic measures the
number of standard deviations between the observed value of 𝑋̅ and the
null hypothesized value of 𝜇 .
➢ In many instances when we are testing hypotheses, we want to find out if
the mean difference is statistically significant or not. The z-test can be
used for this purpose.
Generally the z-test is used when the following conditions are satisfied:
1. The population standard deviation is known or given
2. The population standard deviation is unknown but the sample size is
sufficiently large, (i.e., 𝑛 ≥ 30 ). In this case we use the sample standard
deviation ( 𝑠 ) to replace the population standard deviation ( 𝜎 ).
➢ Case 1: The population mean ( 𝝁 ) and the population standard

deviation ( 𝝈 ) are known
𝑋̅ − 𝜇 𝜎
Test Statistic: 𝑧 = where 𝜎𝑋̅ =
𝜎𝑋
̅ √𝑛
𝑋̅ − 𝜇 ̅ − 𝝁 ) √𝒏
(𝑿
so 𝑧 = 𝜎 or 𝒛 = 𝝈
√𝑛
45
̅ = 𝟗𝟎
Example 1: Given: 𝑿 𝝁 = 𝟖𝟖 𝝈=𝟔 𝒏 = 𝟏𝟎𝟎
̅ − 𝝁 )√ 𝒏
(𝑿 (90−88) √100
Find the value of z: 𝒛= = = 𝟑. 𝟑𝟑
𝝈 6
➢ Case 2: The population mean ( 𝝁 ) is known but the population
standard deviation ( 𝝈 ) is unknown.
𝑋̅ − 𝜇 𝑠
Test Statistic: 𝑧 = where 𝜎𝑋̅ =
𝜎𝑋
̅ √𝑛
𝑋̅ − 𝜇 ̅ − 𝝁 ) √𝒏
(𝑿
so 𝑧 = 𝑠 or 𝒛 = 𝒔
√𝑛
̅ = 𝟖𝟎 𝒔 = 𝟒
Example 2: Given: 𝑿 𝝁 = 𝟖𝟑 𝒏 = 𝟏𝟎𝟎
̅ − 𝝁 )√ 𝒏
(𝑿 (80−83) √100
Find the value of z: 𝒛= = = −𝟕. 𝟓
𝒔 4
o Test Statistic/ Test Value: a sample statistic used to decide whether to
accept or reject the null hypothesis.
o Rejection Region: the numerical values of the test statistic for which the
null hypothesis will be rejected. This region is also called the critical
region
o Acceptance Region: the numerical values of the test statistic for which
the null hypothesis will be accepted.
Example 3:
A researcher used a developed problem-solving test to randomly select 50
Grade 6 pupils. In this sample, 𝑋̅ = 80 𝑠 = 10. The mean 𝝁 and the standard
deviation 𝝈 of the population used in the standardization of the test were 75
and 15, respectively. Use the 95% confidence level to answer the following
questions:
a) Does the sample mean differ significantly from the population mean?
b) Can it be said that the sample is above average?
Solution:
Steps in Testing the Hypothesis
STEP 1 STEP 2 STEP 3 STEP 4 STEP 5
Describe the Formulate the Check Select the State the
population hypotheses: assumptions. appropriate test decision rule.
parameter of The null Collect and statistic. (e.g. z-test Formulate a
interest (e.g. hypothesis and present sample or t-test) conclusion.
mean μ, the alternative evidence (Optional: Draw a
proportion P) hypothesis. normal curve)
The 𝐻0 ∶ 𝜇 = 75 Given: Test Statistic: The null
population 𝐻1 ∶ 𝜇 ≠ 75 𝑛 = 50, by (𝑿̅ − 𝝁 )√ 𝒏 hypothesis is
parameter of Test: Central Limit 𝒛= rejected.
𝝈
interest is Non- Theorem There is
the mean 𝜇 directional (CLT), the enough
of the distribution evidence to
46
population (Two-tailed) is normally 𝒛 warrant the
where the distributed. (80 − 75) √50 rejection of
sample 𝑋̅ = 80 = the null
15
comes from. 𝑠 = 10 = 𝟐. 𝟑𝟔 hypothesis.
So, there is
significant
95% 2.36
difference
confidence
-1.96 1.96 between the
Note: At 95% sample and
two-tailed, Note: 2.36 is population
𝛼 = 0.05 => found in the mean.
critical z rejection region Therefore,
values :
the claim is
±1.96
not true
According to
the test, we
can say that
the sample
belongs to a
population
that is above
average.
Recall:
➢ Critical Values of Z
The table shows the critical values of z for the given type of test and
level of significance
Level of Significance
Type of Test 𝜶 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟎 𝜶 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟓 𝜶 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏
(90%) (95%) (99%)
One-tailed ± 1.28 ± 1.65 ± 2.33
Two-tailed ± 1.65 ± 1.96 ± 2.58
Graphical representations:
( 𝑯𝟏 ∶ 𝝁 ≠ 𝝁𝟏 ) ( 𝑯𝟏 ∶ 𝝁 > 𝝁𝟏 ) ( 𝑯𝟏 ∶ 𝝁 < 𝝁𝟏 )
Non-directional (Two- Directional (Two- Directional (Two-
tailed) tailed, Right-tailed) tailed, Left-tailed)
Rejection Rejection Rejection Rejection

Region Acceptance Region Region Region
Acceptance Acceptance
Region Region Region
47
Example 4:
A sociologist believes that it costs more than Php 90 000 to raise a child from
birth to age one. A random sample of 49 families, each with a child is selected
to see if this figure is correct. The average expenses for these families reveal a
mean of Php 92 000 with a standard deviation of Php 4 500. Based on these
sample data, can it be conducted that the sociologist is correct in his claim?
Use 0.01 level of significance.
Solution:
The 𝐻0 ∶ 𝜇 Given: Test Statistic: The null
population = 90 000 𝑛 = 49, by ̅ − 𝝁 )√𝒏
(𝑿 hypothesis
parameter 𝐻1 ∶ 𝜇 Central 𝒛= is rejected.
𝝈
of interest Limit
> 90 000 (92000 − 90000) √49 There is
is the mean Test: Theorem = enough
𝜇 of the 4500 evidence to
Directional (CLT), the 𝒛 = 𝟑. 𝟏𝟏
population (One-tailed, distribution warrant the
where the Right- is normally rejection of
sample tailed)) distributed.
3.11
the null
comes 𝑋̅ = 92 000 hypothesis.
from. 2.33
So, there is
𝑠 = 4 500
Note: 3.11 is found in significant
the rejection region difference
99%
between the
confidence
sample and
Note: At population
99% one- mean.
tailed,
Therefore,
𝛼 = 0.01 =>
the claim is
critical z
not true
values :
Thus, the
±2.33
sociologist
is correct in
claiming
that the
cost to raise
a child from
birth to age
one is more
than Php90
000.
48
III. ACTIVITY
what is asked:
Activity 1
A. Suppose z is the test statistic for hypothesis testing. Calculate the z-
value for each of the following:
1) 𝑛 = 68 𝑋̅ = 9.2 𝜇 = 10 𝜎=3
2) 𝑛 = 118 ̅
𝑋 = 72.2 𝜇 = 75 𝜎 = 5.8
3) 𝑛 = 130 𝑋̅ = 82 𝜇 = 100 𝜎 = 12
4) 𝑛 = 80 𝑋̅ = 28.3 𝜇 = 26 𝜎 = 4.5
5) 𝑛 = 52 𝑋̅ = 49.6 𝜇 = 52 𝜎=7
B. Given the level of significance 𝜶 and the z-values, indicate whether
the decision is to Reject or Accept 𝑯𝟎
1) 𝛼 = 0.05 𝑍 = −2.5 𝑡𝑤𝑜 − 𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑒𝑑
2) 𝛼 = 0.01 𝑍 = 1.85 𝑡𝑤𝑜 − 𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑒𝑑
3) 𝛼 = 0.10 𝑍 = −1.5 𝑡𝑤𝑜 − 𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑒𝑑
4) 𝛼 = 0.05 𝑍 = 1.65 𝑜𝑛𝑒 − 𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑒𝑑
5) 𝛼 = 0.01 𝑍 = −3.7 𝑜𝑛𝑒 − 𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑒𝑑
Activity 2: Solve the following. Follow the 5 steps in hypothesis testing

1. A light bulb manufacturer regularly advertises that his bulbs last 900
hours with a standard deviation of 75 hours. A random sample is
chosen before each campaign to make sure that the claim is correct. If
one such sample of 50 bulbs shows a mean of 925 hours, can the
advertising claim be considered an underestimate at the 0.05 level of
significance?
2. A manufacturing firm has been averaging 18.2 orders per week for
several years. However, during a recession, orders appear to have
slowed down. Suppose the firm’s production manager randomly selects
32 weeks and finds a sample mean of 15.6 orders with a sample
standard deviation of 2.3 orders. Test to determine whether the average
number of orders is down by using 𝛼 = 0.05 .
3. A psychologist believes that it will take at least an hour for certain
disturbed children to learn a task. A random sample of 35 of these
children resulted in a mean of 50 minutes to learn the task. Should the
psychologist modify her belief at the 0.01 level if the population
standard deviation can be assumed to 15 minutes?
IV. REFERENCES:

49
Lesson Conducting Small Sample Test
22 About the Population Mean

population mean (M11 /12SP-IVb-1)
(M11 /12SP-IVb-2, IVc-1)
the test-statistic value and the rejection region) (M11 /12SP-IVd-1-2)
1. form the appropriate null and alternative hypotheses
II. CONTENT
➢ In using the z-test of one-sample mean, the assumption is that the
population standard deviation is known or given. However if 𝝈 is not
known, we can still use the z-test by replacing 𝝈 by s provided that 𝑛 > 30
➢ Suppose the population standard deviation 𝝈 is not known and n ≤ 30 .
The t-test of one-sample mean will be used for this situation.
➢ We use the following formula to compare the sample mean and the
population mean
̅ −𝝁
𝑿 𝑠
Test Statistic: 𝒕 = where 𝜎𝑋̅ =
𝝈𝑿̅ √𝑛
𝑋̅ − 𝜇 ̅ − 𝝁 ) √𝒏
(𝑿
so 𝑡 = 𝑠 or 𝒕 = 𝒔
√𝑛
➢ Critical Values of t
Refer to the Student’s t-distribution Table
Example 1:
Drinking water has become an important concern among people. The quality
of drinking water must be monitored as often as possible during the day for
possible contamination. Another variable of concern is the pH level, which
measures the alkalinity or the acidity of the water. A pH below 7.0 is acidic
while a pH above 7.0 is alkaline, a pH of 7.0 is neutral. A water treatment
plant has a target pH of 8.0. Based on 16 random water samples, the mean
and the standard deviation were found to be 𝑋̅ = 7.6 𝑠 = 0.4.
50
Does the sample mean provide enough evidence that it differs significantly
from the target mean? Or does the sample come from a population whose
mean is the same as the target pH of 8.0? Use 𝛼 = 0.05, two-tailed test
Solution:
population hypotheses: assumptions. appropriate test decision rule.
parameter of The null Collect and statistic. (e.g. z- Formulate a
interest (e.g. hypothesis present test or t-test) conclusion.
mean μ, and the sample (Optional: Draw
proportion P) alternative evidence a normal curve)
hypothesis.
The 𝐻0 ∶ 𝜇 = 8.0 Given: Test Statistic: The null
population 𝐻1 ∶ 𝜇 ≠ 8.0 𝑛 = 16, the (𝑿 ̅ − 𝝁 )√𝒏 hypothesis is
parameter of Test: Central Limit 𝒕= rejected.
𝒔
interest is Non- Theorem 𝒕 There is
the mean 𝜇 directional (CLT), cannot (7.6 − 8.0) √16 enough
of the (Two-tailed) be applied = evidence to
population 0.4 warrant the
𝑋̅ = 7.6 𝑠 = −𝟒
where the = 0.4 rejection of
sample 95% -4 the null
comes from. confidence hypothesis.
Note: At 95% -2.131
So, there is
2.131
two-tailed, significant
Note: -4 is found difference
𝛼 = 0.05 =>
in the rejection between the
region sample and
Degrees of
population
freedom 𝑑𝑓 =
mean.
𝑛 − 1 = 16 −
1 = 15 Therefore,
critical t the claim is
values : not true
±2.131 Thus, the
water
treatment
plant did not
meet its
target pH of
8
51
Example 2: The director of a secretarial school believes that its graduates can
type more than 75 words per minute. A random sample of 12 graduates has
been found to have an average of 77.2 words per minute with a standard
deviation of 7.9 words per minute in a typing test. Using the 0.05 level of
significance, test the claim of the director.
Solution:
The 𝐻0 ∶ 𝜇 = 75 Given: Test Statistic: The null
population 𝐻1 ∶ 𝜇 > 75 𝑛 = 12, the ̅ − 𝝁 )√𝒏 hypothesis is
(𝑿
parameter of Test: Central Limit 𝒕= accepted.
𝒔 There is
interest is Directional Theorem (77.2 − 75) √12 enough
the mean 𝜇 (One-tailed, (CLT), cannot =
of the 7.9 evidence to
Right-tailed) be applied = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟔 warrant the
population 𝑋̅ = 77.2 acceptance of
where the 𝑠 = 7.9 the null
sample 0.96 hypothesis.
95%
comes from. So, there is no
confidence
significant
Note: At 95% 1.796
difference
one-tailed, between the
Note: 0.96 is
𝛼 = 0.05 => sample and
found in the
acceptance population
Degrees of mean.
region
freedom Therefore, the
𝑑𝑓 = 𝑛 − 1 claim is true
= 12 − 1 = 11 Thus, the
critical t claim of the
values : director that
±1.796 their
graduates can
type more
than 75 words
per minute is
incorrect.
III. ACTIVITY
what is asked:
Activity 1:
A. Suppose t is the test statistic for hypothesis testing. Calculate the t-
value for each of the following:
1) 𝑛 = 12 𝑋̅ = 15 𝑠=4 𝜇 = 12
2) 𝑛 = 8 𝑋̅ = 5 𝑠 = 0.14 𝜇 = 5.3
3) 𝑛 = 17 ̅
𝑋=5 𝑠=3 𝜇=7
52
4) 𝑛 = 10 𝑋̅ = 7.8 𝑠 = 5.1 𝜇 = 10
5) 𝑛 = 15 ̅
𝑋 = 6.2 𝑠 = 1.8 𝜇 = 9.1
B. A random sample of n observations is selected from a normal
population to test the null hypothesis that 𝑯𝟎 : 𝝁 = 𝟏𝟎 . Specify the
rejection region (or the critical value) for each of the following. Use the t-
table
1) 𝑯𝟏 : 𝜇 ≠ 10 𝛼 = 0.05 𝑛 = 14
2) 𝑯𝟏 : 𝜇 < 10 𝛼 = 0.10 𝑛 = 12
3) 𝑯𝟏 : 𝜇 < 10 𝛼 = 0.05 𝑛 = 28
4) 𝑯𝟏 : 𝜇 > 10 𝛼 = 0.01 𝑛 = 24
5) 𝑯𝟏 : 𝜇 ≠ 10 𝛼 = 0.10 𝑛 = 20
Activity 2: Solve the given problems. Follow the 5 steps and write your
final answer.
1. An anthropologist believes that the diameter of the skull of a primitive
man is more than 7 inches. After many years of search, 6 skulls of this
type were found. The mean diameter of these is found to be 6.8 inches
with a standard deviation of 1.2 inches. Can it be concluded that the
anthropologist is correct at the 0.05 level of significance?
2. An experimental study was conducted by a researcher to determine if a
new time slot has an effect on the performance of pupils in
Mathematics. Fifteen randomly selected learners participated in the
study. Toward the end of the investigation, a standardized assessment
was conducted. The sample mean was 85 and the sample standard
deviation was 3. In the standardization of the test, the mean was 75 and
the standard deviation was 10. Based on the evidence at hand, is the
new time slot effective? Use 0.05 level of significance.
3. The average amount of rainfall during the summer months is 11.52
inches. A researcher in PAG-ASA selects a random sample of 10
provinces and finds that the average amount of rainfall last year was
7.42 inches with a standard deviation of 1.3 inches. At 0.01 level of
significance, can it be concluded that the mean rainfall last year was
below 11.52 inches?
IV. REFERENCES:

53
Lesson Conducting Significance Tests
23 Using the Probability Approach
I.MOST ESSENTIAL LEARNING COMPETENCY:

✓ solves problems involving test of hypothesis on the population mean
M11 /12SP-IVe-1
1. solve problems involving probability approach
II. CONTENT
➢ We can conduct a hypothesis test in two ways:
1. Traditional or Classical Method (discussed in lesson 21 and 22); and
2. P-value Method or Probability Value Approach
Decision Rule
➢ If the probability is less than or equal to the critical probability level,
called the alpha ( 𝜶 ) level then we reject the null hypothesis.
𝑹𝒆𝒋𝒆𝒄𝒕 𝑯𝟎 𝒊𝒇 𝒑 ≤ 𝜶
➢ If the obtained probability level is greater than the alpha ( 𝜶 ) level, we
do not reject the 𝑯𝟎
𝑨𝒄𝒄𝒆𝒑𝒕 𝑯𝟎 𝒊𝒇 𝒑 > 𝛼
P value Interpretation
Less than 0.01 Highly statistically significant
There is a very strong evidence
against 𝐻0
0.01 to 0.05 Statistically significant
Adequate evidence against 𝐻0
Greater than 0.05 Insufficient evidence against 𝐻0
Example: Ryan administered a mathematics achievement test to a random

sample of 50 graduating pupils. In this sample, 𝑋̅ = 90 𝑠 = 10. The
population parameters are 𝜇 = 83 𝜎 = 15. Use 𝛼 = 0.05, and p-value method
a) Does the sample come from the average population?
b) Is the performance of the sample above average?
54
Solution:
A. Does the sample come from the average population?
Steps in Testing the Hypothesis (Using the p-value method)
population hypotheses: The assumptions. appropriate test decision rule.
parameter of null hypothesis Collect and statistic. (e.g. z-test Formulate a
interest (e.g. and the present sample or t-test) conclusion.
mean μ, alternative evidence Compute the
proportion P) hypothesis. probability value (p-
value). Locate in
the z-table
The 𝐻0 ∶ 𝜇 = 83 Given: Test Statistic: Reject 𝐻0 if
population 𝐻1 ∶ 𝜇 ≠ 83 𝑛 = 50, by ̅ − 𝝁 )√𝒏
(𝑿 the computed
parameter of Central Limit 𝒛= probability
Test: 𝒔
interest is the Theorem value ≤ 𝛼 =
Non- (90 − 83) √50
mean 𝜇 of the (CLT), the = 0.05
directional distribution is 15 Accept 𝐻0 if
population, (Two-tailed) = 𝟑. 𝟑𝟎
normally the computed
that is the
distributed. probability
mean For the two-tailed
𝑋̅ = 90 value > 𝛼 =
performance test, the p-value 0.05
of all pupils 𝑠 = 10 (probability
𝜇 = 83 0.0010 < 0.05
in the test. value) is the area
𝜎 = 15 to the left or to its The null
right using the z- hypothesis is
95%
confidence table of areas rejected.
There is
Note: At 95%
enough
two-tailed, P value =
evidence to
𝛼 = 0.05 P (z < -3.30) or warrant the
P (z > 3.30) rejection of
Locate in the z- the null
table. hypothesis.
The area between So, there is
z = 0 and z = 3.30 significant
( or -3.30) is difference
0.4995 between the
P value = 0.5000 sample and
– 0.4995 population
P value = 0.0005 mean.
Since the test is Therefore, the
two-tailed, we claim is not
multiply the area true
by 2 Thus, the
Final p value = 2 sample did
(0.0005) = come from the
0.0010 average
population
55
B. Is the performance of the sample above average?
Steps in Testing the Hypothesis (Using the p-value method)
value). Locate in the
z-table
The population 𝐻0 ∶ 𝜇 = 83 Given: Test Statistic: Reject 𝐻0 if
parameter of 𝐻1 ∶ 𝜇 > 83 𝑛 = 50, by (𝑿̅ − 𝝁 )√𝒏 the computed
interest is the Test: Central Limit 𝒛= probability
𝒔
mean 𝜇 of the Directional Theorem value ≤ 𝛼 =
(90 − 83) √50
population, (CLT), the 𝒛= 0.05
(One-tailed, 15
that is the distribution is Accept 𝐻0 if
Right Tailed) = 𝟑. 𝟑𝟎
mean normally the computed
performance of distributed. probability
all pupils in For the two-tailed value > 𝛼 =
𝑋̅ = 90 𝑠 = 10
the test. test, the p-value 0.05
𝜇 = 83 𝜎 = (probability value)
15 is the area to the
95% left or to its right 0.0005 < 0.05
confidence using the z-table The null
Note: At 95% of areas hypothesis is
two-tailed, rejected.
𝛼 = 0.05 There is
P value =
enough
P (z < -3.30) or
evidence to
P (z > 3.30) warrant the
Locate in the z- rejection of
table. the null
The area between hypothesis.
z = 0 and z = 3.30 So, there is
(or -3.30) is significant
0.4995 difference
P value = 0.5000 between the
– 0.4995 sample and
P value = 0.0005 population
Since the test is mean.
one-tailed, the p- Therefore, the
value remains as claim is not
is. true
Final p value = Thus, the
0.0005 sample did
come from the
average
population
56
III. ACTIVITY
what is asked:
Activity 1:
A. Accept 𝐻0 or Reject 𝐻0 . If a hypothesis is conducted using 𝜶 = 𝟎, 𝟎𝟓, for
which of the following p-values would the null hypothesis be rejected or
accepted?
1) 𝑝 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 = 0.3
2) 𝑝 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 = 0.04
3) 𝑝 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 = 0.243
4) 𝑝 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 = 0.1
5) 𝑝 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 = 0.001
B. Accept 𝐻0 or Reject 𝐻0 . For each pair of 𝛼 and 𝒑 − 𝒗𝒂𝒍𝒖𝒆 , indicate

whether the null hypothesis would be rejected or accepted.
1) 𝛼 = 0.05 𝑝 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 = 0.3
2) 𝛼 = 0.05 𝑝 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 = 0.05
3) 𝛼 = 0.01 𝑝 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 = 0.10
4) 𝛼 = 0.01 𝑝 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 = 0.001
5) 𝛼 = 0.10 𝑝 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 = 0.01
Activity 2:
Solve the given problems. Follow the 5 steps and write your final answer.
1) In a test of 𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 80 against 𝐻0 : 𝜇 ≠ 80, 50 sample observations had
a mean of 75 and standard deviation of 12. What is the p-value for the
test at 0.05 level of significance?
2) A supermarket boasts that checkout times for customers are never more
than 15 minutes. A random sample of 36 customers reveals a checkout
time of 17 minutes with a standard deviation of 5 minutes. What can
you conclude about the supermarket’s boast at the 0.05 level? Use the
p-value method.
IV. REFERENCES:

57
Lesson Testing Hypothesis
24 Involving Proportions

population proportion (M11 /12SP-IVe-2)
(M11 /12SP-IVe-3-4)
the test-statistic value and the rejection region) (M11 /12SP-IVf-1-2)
1. form the appropriate null and alternative hypotheses for proportion
II. CONTENT
➢ Inferences involving proportions are made in the context of probability,
p, of “success” for a binomial distribution
➢ When testing a proportion, a percentage or a probability, the following
assumptions must be made:
1) The conditions for binomial experiment are met. That is, there is a
fixed number of independent trials with constant probabilities, and
each trial has two outcomes that we usually classify as “success” and
“failure”
2) The conditions 𝑛𝑝 ≥ 5 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑛𝑞 ≥ 5 are both satisfied so that the
binomial distribution of sample proportions can be approximated by
a normal distribution with 𝜇 = 𝑛𝑝 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝜎 = √𝑛𝑝𝑞
𝑆𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛−𝑛𝑢𝑙 ℎ𝑦𝑝𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑠𝑧𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛

Test Statistic: 𝑧 =
𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑎𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑝̂− 𝑝0 𝑝𝑞
𝑧 = where 𝜎𝑝̂ = √
𝜎𝑝
̂ 𝑛
𝑋
𝑝̂ = 𝑝0 = ℎ𝑦𝑝𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑧𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑝
𝑛
̂ − 𝒑𝟎
𝒑
So 𝒛= 𝒑 𝒒
√ 𝟎 𝟎
𝒏
➢ For one-tailed test:

𝐻0 ∶ 𝑝 = 𝑝𝑜
𝐻1 ∶ 𝑝 > 𝑝𝑜 and rejection region is 𝑧 > + 𝑍0
58
(or 𝐻1 ∶ 𝑝 < 𝑝𝑜 and rejection region is 𝑧 < − 𝑍0 )
➢ For two-tailed test:
𝐻0 ∶ 𝑝 = 𝑝𝑜
𝐻1 ∶ 𝑝 ≠ 𝑝𝑜 and rejection region is 𝑧 < − 𝑍𝛼⁄2 or 𝑧 > + 𝑍𝛼⁄2
Example1: Using the 0.05 level of significance, run a z-test given the
following:
5
𝑛 = 74 𝑝̂ = 𝑝0 = 10%
74
Solution:
Describe the Formulate the Check assumptions. Select the State the
population hypotheses: Collect and present appropriate test decision rule.
parameter of The null sample evidence statistic. (e.g. z- Formulate a
interest (e.g. hypothesis test or t-test) conclusion.
mean μ, and the Compute the
proportion P) alternative probability value
hypothesis. (p-value). Locate
in the z-table
The Note: Given: Test Statistic: traditional
population 𝐻0 ∶ 𝑝 = 𝑝𝑜 𝑛 = 74, the Central ̂ − 𝒑𝟎
𝒑 method
𝒛=
parameter Hypothesis: Limit Theorem (CLT) 𝒑 𝒒 −0.91
√ 𝟎 𝟎
of interest applies 𝒏 > −1.96
𝐻0 ∶ 𝑝 = 0.10
is the 5 𝟓 p-value
𝐻1 ∶ 𝑝 ≠ 0.10 𝑝̂ = − 𝟎. 𝟏 method
population 74 𝒛= 𝟕𝟒
Test: 0.3524 > 0.05
proportion 𝑝0 = 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 √(𝟎. 𝟏)(𝟎. 𝟗)
p. Non- 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 (given in 𝟕𝟒
directional = −𝟎. 𝟗𝟐𝟗𝟗𝟖 The null
the null hypothesis
≈ −𝟎. 𝟗𝟑 hypothesis is
(Two-tailed) = 0.10
P value accepted.
𝑝0 = 1 − 𝑞0 = 0.90
The area There is
between z = 0 enough
95% confidence and z = -0.93 is evidence to
Note: At 95% two- 0.3238 warrant the
tailed, 𝛼 = 0.05 => Therefore, the acceptance of
critical z values: observed the null
±1.96 probability value hypothesis.
is So, there is
0.5000 – 0.3238 no
= 0.1762 significant
Since the test is difference
two-tailed the p- between the
value is sample and
multiplied by 2. population
So, p-value = proportion.
2 (0.1762) = Therefore, the
0.3524 claim is true
59
Example 2:
Mr Sy asserts that fewer than 5% of the bulbs that he sells are defective.
Suppose 300 bulbs are randomly selected, each are tested and 10 defective
bulbs are found. Does this provide sufficient evidence for Mr Sy to conclude
that the fraction of effective bulbs is less than 0.05? Use 𝛼 = 0.01
Solution:
value). Locate in the
z-table
The Note: Given: Test Statistic: traditional
population 𝐻0 ∶ 𝑝 = 𝑝𝑜 𝑛 = 300, the ̂ − 𝒑𝟎
𝒑 method
parameter of Hypothesis: Central Limit 𝒛= −1.3 > −2.33
𝒑 𝒒
interest is the 𝐻0 ∶ 𝑝 = 0.05 Theorem (CLT) √ 𝟎 𝟎 p-value
𝒏
population applies 𝟏𝟎 method
𝐻1 ∶ 𝑝 < 0.05
proportion p. 10 𝟑𝟎𝟎 − 𝟎. 𝟎𝟓
Test: 𝑝̂ = = 0.0934 > 0.01
300 ( ) The null
Directional √ 𝟎. 𝟎𝟓 (𝟎. 𝟗𝟓)
(One-tailed, 𝑝0 𝟑𝟎𝟎 hypothesis is
Left-tailed) = 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 = −𝟏. 𝟑𝟐𝟒𝟓 accepted.
𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 ≈ −𝟏. 𝟑𝟐 There is
(given in the enough
null P value evidence to
hypothesis = The area between warrant the
0.05 z = 0 and acceptance of
𝑝0 = 1 − 𝑞0 z = -1.32 is the null
= 0.95 0.4066 hypothesis.
Therefore, the So, there is no
99% observed significant
confidence probability value difference
Note: At 99% is between the
one-tailed, sample and
0.5000 – 0.4066
𝛼 = 0.01 population
= 0.0934
=> critical z proportion.
values: ±2.33 Therefore, the
Since the test is claim of Mr.
one-tailed the p- Sy that fewer
value remains as than 5% of the
is. bulbs are
So, p-value = defective is
0.0934 not true.
60
III. ACTIVITY
what is asked:
Activity: Solve the given problems. Follow the 5 steps and write your
final answer.
1. A politician claims that she will receive 60% of the votes in the
upcoming election. Of a random sample of 200 voters, there were 100
who will surely vote for her. Test the politician’s assertion at the 0.05
level of significance.
2. A social worker reports that 30% of workers in a factory are below 15
years of age. Of the 120 employees surveyed, 38 said they were below 15
years old. Using 0.05 level of significance, interpret your result.
3. A toy company wishes to put a new toy in the market for the Christmas
season. It does not want to do so if the manufacturing process produces
more than 10% of toys that do not work. In a test run producing 80 of
the toys, 10 are found to be defective. Based on this sample evidence,
should the company continue to put a new toy in the market? Use a
0.05 level of significance.
IV. REFERENCES:

61

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STATISTICS and

*Learning Activity Sheets (LAS) for

Learning Activity Sheets (LAS) #4:

I. MOST ESSENTIAL LEARNING COMPETENCY:

➢ An estimate is a value or a range of values that approximate a parameter

➢ Estimation is the process of determining parameter values

Father, do you agree with me No Son.

Properties of A Good Estimator:

……….. ……….. ………..

. . .. .. . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . ............... . .. .... .. . ....... .....

∑𝑋 ∑(𝑋− 𝑋̅)2 ∑(𝑋− 𝑋) ̅ 2

NOTE: The sample standard deviation is a biased estimate of the

b. Find the mean of means or overall mean

Activity 1: Fill in the blanks

2) Percentage Of Children Who Watch TV Before Bedtime

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➢ To get the value of z: Change to decimal, divide by 2 and locate in the z-

90%=0.90 -> Divide 0.90/2 = 0.450

90% 95% 99%

-1.65 1.65 -1.96 1.96 -2.58 2.58

Large Sample 100 ( 1 – 𝜶 ) % Confidence Interval for 𝝁

General Computing Formula 𝝈 𝝈

Activity 2: Answer the following

2. A sample of 150 Grade 11 students’ ages have been obtained to estimate

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Properties of the t-distribution:

Therefore the t-value is 2.845.

So therefore, the t-value of P85 with 𝑛 = 30 is 1.055.

Therefore, the t-value of 90th percentile with 𝑛 = 20 is 1.328

Activity 2: Triple Matching Type: Match column A (the t-value) to

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Use 𝑡𝛼 values and s in the formula

Small Sample Confidence Interval for μ

where 𝑡 is based on (n-1) degrees of freedom.

1.02 < 𝜇 < 1.44

16.51 < 𝜇 < 18.49

Activity 2: Solve the following.

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Learning Activity Sheets (LAS) #5:

I. MOST ESSENTIAL LEARNING COMPETENCY:

Proportion can be used to represent samples from a certain population.

Percentages are commonly used when reporting frequencies of subsets of

Characteristics of the Sampling Distribution of 𝒑 ̂

Activity 1: Complete the table

Activity 2: Read, analyze, and answer the following. Write your

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Interpreting Interval Estimate of A Population Proportion

Activity 2: Solve the following. Indicate x, n, 𝒑 ̂, 𝒒

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I. MOST ESSENTIAL LEARNING COMPETENCY:

➢ The computing formula in determining the sample size is derived from

Formula In Determining the Minimum Sample Size Needed When

➢ The computing formula in determining the sample size is derived from

➢ In determining the sample size for estimating a population proportion,

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Learning Activity Sheets (LAS) #6:

I. MOST ESSENTIAL LEARNING COMPETENCY: