IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON

MSc EXAMINATION 20XX

HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

This paper also forms part of the relevant examination for the
Diploma of Imperial College

PLEASE NOTE THE CONTENT OF THIS MODULE WAS PARTIALLY REVISED

IN 2020/21 AND SOME OF THE MATERIAL MIGHT NOT HAVE BEEN
COVERED

CIVE70045 - Rainfall-Runoff Modelling and Flood Hydrology

SOLUTIONS

Day: May 20XX Duration: 1h

Answer TWO questions

All questions carry equal marks

Please answer each question in a SEPARATE answer book

© 20XX Imperial College London

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1.
(a) Discharge values are obtained using a discharge-stage relationship as it is shown below.
Discharge values are calculated based on water depth measurements (h). For example, a
general parametric form of this stage-discharge relationship is Q(h)=c(h-ho)b.
The two figures below shown, as an example, the confidence intervals (blue dashed line)
associated to the stage-discharge relationship. For higher values of water depth there are
greater uncertainties on the calculated discharge (bottom-right figure) in comparison to
estimations of discharge for lower values of water depth (bottom-left figure). [2 marks if this
is explained without plots and 5 marks if it includes plots]

[Total of 5 marks]
(b)
An objective function is required to measure the fit of the model output to the observed
data (usually flow data) [1 mark].
Two of the most common measures of fit are the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and the root
means squared error [1 mark]. Both are better measures of fit to high flows rather than low
flows, because higher absolute residuals (x-y) are usually acceptable for higher flows [1
mark]. For this reason, alternative objective functions may be desirable for medium or low
flow studies [1 mark]. For instance, the hydrography may be split in high and low flows using
a threshold, and performance measures calculated separately [1 mark].

[Total of 5 marks]

(c) Global sensitivity analysis involves splitting the sample of parameter sets into two sets:
‘behavioural’ sets and ‘non-behavioural’ sets. Behavioural sets lead to acceptable model
results, and ‘non-behavioural’ sets lead to unacceptable model results.
One form that parameters can be classified between behavioural and non-behavioural is by
a threshold in the objective function value. [ 2 marks]

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For each parameter set (behavioural and non-behavioural) a cumulative frequency
distribution in each classification can be derived. If the parameter has a significant influence
on the classification of the result then there will be a significant difference between the two
frequency distributions (left figure below). If there isn’t significant difference between the
frequency distribution then the parameter is insensitive to the classification (right figure
below) [2 marks]. (Plus 1 mark per figure, 2marks total)

[Total of 6 marks]

(d) [1 mark each]

• the optimised parameter values may not be robust to
− uncertainty in the calibration data,
− calibration period length,

− performance measures,

− optimization method;
• Independent regression of the parameters, regardless of parameter interactions;
• Subjectivity in the variable transformation choice (to be used in the regressions), e.g.
log transformation;
• Statistical nature of the regression (explanatory variables are chosen based on their
statistical significance, not physical meaning)

[Total of 4 marks]

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2.

(a) Three limitations [3 marks] •Evaluates the volume of ‘storm runoff’, i.e. further runoff
routing and baseflow calculations are required;
•No physical basis for its main assumptions (i.e. for rainfall-to-runoff transformation
efficiency and initial abstraction-to-maximum retention connection);
•Transferability of runoff coefficients to other climatic- soil conditions is
questionable.

Two advantages [2 marks]

• Simplicity
• A large database of tabulated curve number values is available
[Total of 5 marks]

(b) Regionalisation problem refers to accurately simulate catchment responses without

using observation data (usually flow) to which calibrate the hydrological model. [2
marks]
Regionalisation methods are required for (select 3 from the list below): [3 marks]
• Flood defence design
• Land planning
• Water resources
• Hydropower applications
• Prediction of future changes (such as land use change)
• Parameter estimation for Land Surface Models that serve as a lower boundary condition
for Climate Models
[Total of 5 marks]

(c) It is challenging to simulate flood inundation globally due to: [2 marks]

• Data scarcity – most rivers are un-gauged and are not surveyed
• Flood inundation models are computationally expensive
[Total of 2 marks]

(d)
The answer to this question will depend on what is the NSE threshold value that students
use. Selection of the threshold value should reject at least parameter sets 6 and 10. [1
mark] From the behavioural parameter sets, estimate the likelihood by normalising the NSE
values, i.e. NSE/sum(NSE) [ 2 marks]
The average minimum flow is the sum of the weighted values of predicted minimum flow by
the likelihood. [5 marks]

[Total of 8 marks]

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3.

(a) Select 5 assumptions from the following list: [1 mark each]

• Assumes all routing is in channels
• Assumes no attenuation of hydrograph
• Assumes uniform runoff per unit length of stream
• Assumes all streams have equal celerity
• At least one parameter – wave celerity c
• Dispersion D may also be introduced
[Total of 5 marks]

(b)
The PDM (Probability distributed moisture) model represents the catchment with variable soil
moisture storage (parameter c) and assumes that areas with same soil moisture storage
respond in the same way. Usually the distribution function of storage capacity considered is
the Pareto distribution. The diagram below (taken from Lecture 4) shows the soil moisture
storage in order where cmax is the maximum storage capacity in the catchment; the general
idea of the runoff production in the PDM model is that at time t locations with storage
capacity smaller than c* are runoff sources areas. (4 marks)

Looking at the distribution function of storage capacity, the total runoff production between
time t to t+∆t due to rainfall of ∆t duration is represented by the stripe area in the figure
below. The vertical red bars represent the proportion of catchment producing runoff per unit
of rainfall at time t and (t+∆t). Area over the striped area represents the water that contributes
to soil moisture storage. (4 marks)

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 [Total of 8 marks]

(c) Sources of uncertainty in hydrological modelling are : (choose 4, 1 mark each)

- Uncertainty in initial and boundary conditions;
- Uncertainty in model inputs;
- Uncertainty in model structure;
- Uncertainty in model parameter estimates;
- Uncertainties that has been overlooked (including known omissions and unknown
unknowns).
[Total of 4 marks]

(c) The problem of parameter interaction when calibrating a hydrological model refers to
the fact that different parameters can have very similar effects on the model result
despite being conceptually different; therefore, different parameter sets can produce
the same (or almost the same) result. This problem is worse in situations when model
performance is measure mainly on a single objective function. (3marks)

[Total of 3 marks]

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